Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
5:33 — Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden
7½f · Good · MDN · 12 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:08 — Saudi Cup Silver Flash Stakes (Group 3)
7½f · Good · G3 · 8 runners
Blonde Over Blue likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Nevermindtherain and Blonde Over Blue led, as the map showed.
Alpha won at 1.17 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Blonde Over Blue
Prominent · 2
Alpine WeddingAlpha
Midfield · 3
Green EmpressCedrelaDancing Destiny
Hold Up · 2
Tosca No CandisNevermindtherain
Blonde Over Blue is the sole confirmed front-runner in this eight-runner field and, with no genuine pace rival to pressure her, she is positioned to dictate a sustainable, controlled gallop over Leopardstown's flat 7½f on Good turf. Alpha and Alpine Wedding are the other prominent types, likely to track just off the leader and keep the tempo honest without forcing a burning early fractions. Dancing Destiny, a natural prominent racer, has been mapped to midfield due to the surplus of forward-going types, meaning the early order may compress slightly as position is negotiated, but this is unlikely to produce a true test of speed from the front. This race shape — a lone leader at a manageable pace with prominent chasers close behind — strongly favours horses who can race in second or third, travel well into the straight, and produce a clean, sustained finish rather than a sharp turn-of-foot from deep.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Blonde Over Blue Dictates
65% probability
If Blonde Over Blue secures a clean lead unchallenged and controls tempo through a sustainable gallop.
With no rival prepared to test her early, she can dictate the fractions and produce a kick from the front, making the race a stamina-tinged test of consistency at 7½f on Good ground.
AlphaAlpine WeddingBlonde Over BlueGreen Empress
B
Prominent Pair Override
18% probability
If Alpha or Alpine Wedding press Blonde Over Blue decisively early and force a stronger pace than she sets.
A contested lead sharpens the tempo and suits horses who travel smoothly in the slipstream before asserting in the final furlong; both Alpha and Alpine Wedding have the class and position to capitalise.
AlphaAlpine WeddingBlonde Over BlueGreen Empress
C
Hold-Up Surge Late
10% probability
If the pace collapses dramatically in the straight, leaving room for the back-markers to reel in tiring leaders.
Tosca No Candis and Nevermindtherain would need a longer-than-expected gallop to set up a late run, and with a controlled pace likely this is the least natural outcome; neither has yet shown the form to suggest they can bridge the gap.
Tosca No CandisNevermindtherainDancing DestinyCedrela
D
Midfield Mover Strikes
7% probability
If the race is muddling enough that Dancing Destiny, mapped to midfield, can push through a gap in the straight despite being out of her natural position.
Racing wide of her preferred prominent berth, she would need traffic to clear quickly and leaders to tire; her form figures at the trip give her an outside chance, but the positional compromise is a meaningful handicap.
Blonde Over Blue's ability to get a clean break from the gates is critical — if she is slow away, Alpha or Alpine Wedding could steal a march and the entire pace map shifts.
WATCH
Alpine Wedding ran just four days ago; monitor in the parade ring for any signs of a quick-turnaround dip in condition, as a below-par performance from her could open up the race shape.
WATCH
Dancing Destiny's jockey Declan McDonogh will face an early decision — push forward and risk traffic, or settle mid-pack and accept a compromised role; how this is handled could decide whether she is a factor at all.
NOTE
Green Empress steps up from 6f to 7½f for the first time; if she handles the extra ground her consistent placing pattern and McMonagle partnership make her worth tracking through the first half of the race.
NOTE
Cedrela is a complete unknown with no published last-run date or form string — Colin Keane's record in similar spots suggests he will not be on a lost cause, so watch her closely in the market moves before post time.
6:43 — Japan Racing Association Tyros Stakes (Group 3)
7½f · Good · G3 · 6 runners
Nail House to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Florida Bay won at 4.50. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Nail House
Prominent · 2
Folsom BluesAix La Chapelle
Midfield · 2
Supreme LordFlorida Bay
Hold Up · 1
Tio Joao
Nail House is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with only six runners and no genuine challenger for the lead, is set to control this race from the front at a sustainable, uncontested gallop over 7½f on Good turf at Leopardstown. Aix La Chapelle, Folsom Blues, and Florida Bay are all prominent-running types who will need to settle just off the pace rather than fight for the front, meaning the race will compress early into a tight group behind Nail House with limited positional battles to stretch the tempo. Florida Bay, despite being a natural prominent racer, is mapped to midfield here because there are more pace-committed types than positions at the front, and in this shape Nail House and Aix La Chapelle are the most likely pair to secure the forward berths. A controlled, single-pacemaker setup on Good ground over this trip historically rewards horses who sit close to the leader and travel with cover — the prominent-to-midfield profile benefits most, as Nail House sets an honest but unexaggerated tempo that allows those just behind to time their challenge off a steady sectional rather than a collapse in front.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Nail House Controls, Prominent Pounce
70% probability
If Nail House dictates an uncontested lead and the race is run at a sustainable clip throughout.
Nail House sets a controlled tempo from the gates with Aix La Chapelle and Folsom Blues tracking in his wake, setting up a straight-line dash where the winner emerges from the first two or three positions.
Aix La ChapelleFolsom BluesNail HouseFlorida Bay
B
Nail House Leads, Stays On
15% probability
If Nail House's lead never comes under serious pressure and he holds on into the final furlong.
Nail House, uncontested and relaxed through the early stages, finds reserves to repel challengers in the closing stages as those behind fail to deliver a decisive surge.
Nail HouseAix La ChapelleFolsom BluesSupreme Lord
C
Late Closers Emerge
10% probability
If the pace is surprisingly hot early and the front group tie up inside the final furlong.
Tio Joao or Supreme Lord, racing from further back, could pick up ground if the leaders falter, though both are unknown quantities and this shape relies on a pace collapse that looks unlikely with Nail House uncontested.
Tio JoaoSupreme LordFlorida BayFolsom Blues
D
Pace Collapse, Chaos
5% probability
If a positional battle breaks out unexpectedly or an incident disrupts the run of the race.
Should multiple prominent types jostle aggressively in the early stages, the race could develop untidily and open the door for a hold-up runner to benefit, but with only six runners and clear pace hierarchy this shape is highly unlikely to materialise.
Florida BaySupreme LordTio JoaoAix La Chapelle
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Nail House in the stalls and from the gate — if anything disrupts his clean break, the entire race shape changes as Aix La Chapelle or Folsom Blues could inherit the lead and alter the tempo profile entirely.
WATCH
Florida Bay is a natural prominent racer who may press forward despite being mapped to midfield; if Wayne Lordan elects to go for the front, it could inject unexpected early pressure on Nail House and raise the pace.
WATCH
Supreme Lord's unknown style and light experience over the longer 7½f trip makes it a wildcard — watch how Donagh O'Connor positions it in the early stages, as unusual placement could distort the running order.
NOTE
Tio Joao carries the most uncertainty in the field with no last-run data and unknown going preference — monitor its pre-race vibes and market movement as any market support would be significant given the information void.
NOTE
Ryan Moore on Aix La Chapelle is the standout jockey booking and worth tracking through the race — Moore's positioning instincts on a prominent-style horse in a six-runner race where he can dictate his own fate will be a key visual cue.
7:18 — Dublin To Bahrain Race Series Handicap
1m1f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners
Mr Ballynonty to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Dark Viper led; the map had Mr Ballynonty in front.
Dark Viper won at 10.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.
4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Mr Ballynonty
Prominent · 4
ApercuManton BayHarmaniKilcrea Rock
Midfield · 2
Dark ViperWild Sapphire
Hold Up · 2
GlyndwrEastern Peace
Mr Ballynonty is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with trainer-jockey Andrew Slattery likely to use that natural role, he should lead from the gates and set a measured, uncontested gallop over this 1m1f trip on Good ground. Behind him, Apercu, Kilcrea Rock, Manton Bay, and Harmani all want prominent positions, creating a congested battle for the four or five seats directly behind the leader that is likely to see niggling and shuffling two to three furlongs out. Dark Viper and Wild Sapphire are genuine prominent-racing types who are unlikely to secure their natural position in this crowded map and will find themselves racing further back than ideal, compromising their chances. With a single uncontested pace-setter likely to produce a controlled, even tempo on Good ground, this race shape strongly favours horses who can sit close to the pace in a legitimate prominent position and quicken from there — hold-up horses face a secondary disadvantage because the pace will not be searching enough to set up a late surge, and the redistributed prominent types are also compromised.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Pace, Prominent Wins
62% probability
If Mr Ballynonty leads at a sustainable clip and the prominent runners behind him settle into rhythm without early scrimmaging.
Mr Ballynonty's uncontested lead sets a moderate, even pace that plays directly into the hands of horses travelling close behind him, allowing the best horse in a prominent position to pick him off in the final furlong on Good ground.
ApercuKilcrea RockManton BayHarmani
B
Scrimmage Breaks Race Open
18% probability
If the four prominent-seeking runners — Apercu, Kilcrea Rock, Manton Bay, Harmani — fight vigorously for position early and burn each other out.
A chaotic early section elevates the pace beyond a sustainable level, meaning the horses who survive the scramble are not necessarily the strongest, and a fresher horse from slightly further back can pounce.
HarmaniManton BayGlyndwrEastern Peace
C
Leader Holds On Wire
12% probability
If Mr Ballynonty steals an unnoticed margin and the pursuing pack fails to coordinate a challenge until too late.
The modest pace from out front, combined with the traffic problems in the chasing pack two furlongs out, allows Mr Ballynonty to dictate terms so thoroughly that he is not caught before the line.
Mr BallynontyApercuKilcrea RockManton Bay
D
Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late
8% probability
If the pace collapses in a genuine sprint finish and a hold-up horse threads through beaten rivals in the closing stages.
Glyndwr or Eastern Peace, racing off a true hold-up position, benefit only if the early contest between prominent runners is genuinely severe enough to leave them all weakening — a less likely outcome at an even Good-ground tempo.
GlyndwrEastern PeaceWild SapphireDark Viper
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch the break from the gates closely — Apercu, Kilcrea Rock, Manton Bay, and Harmani will all attempt to press Mr Ballynonty immediately, and a collision or severe crowding in the first two furlongs could unsettle multiple runners and distort the race shape entirely.
WATCH
Dark Viper and Wild Sapphire are both natural prominent types likely to find themselves squeezed back into midfield; if either forces their way into their preferred position through traffic, the complexion of the pace changes and the race becomes markedly more competitive up front.
WATCH
Monitor Mr Ballynonty's sectionals through the first half-mile — if Slattery is allowed to dictate at a crawl, the winner is almost certainly in the prominent group at the top of the home straight and hold-up horses become irrelevant.
NOTE
Dylan Browne McMonagle's booking for Kilcrea Rock is the standout jockey move in the race; a horse returning from 58 days off with that level of tactical rider is worth tracking through the early stages to see how quickly he settles into his position.
NOTE
Eastern Peace's 5lb claimer McGettigan reduces the burden meaningfully on a horse that has already won over this trip and distance from a hold-up position, but the pace needs to be faster than expected for that advantage to materialise.
7:53 — Dubai Racing Carnival Rated Race
1m5f · Good · DEFAULT · 4 runners
Handshake likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Keepsgettingbetter led; the map had Handshake in front.
Wyman won at 3.75 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Handshake
Prominent · 1
Wyman
Midfield · 1
Keepsgettingbetter
Hold Up · 1
Lord Aus
Handshake is the sole confirmed front-runner in this four-runner field and, with no genuine rival to challenge for the lead, Dylan Browne McMonagle can dictate a controlled, measured gallop from the front over 1m5f on Good turf at Leopardstown. Keepsgettingbetter is a natural prominent type who has been redistributed to midfield on the map because Handshake will almost certainly occupy the front position unchallenged; in practice Keepsgettingbetter may push forward but is unlikely to unsettle Handshake's rhythm. Wyman should slot into a prominent tracking role behind the leader, while Lord Aus will settle last under Ben Coen, needing a strong enough tempo to be set up for a late run — a tempo that a lone, uncontested leader is unlikely to provide. This race shape strongly favours the prominent stalking profile: a horse that can sit just behind Handshake's comfortable lead, conserve energy through a likely moderate gallop, and have enough left to quicken in the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Handshake Controls Unchallenged
72% probability
If Handshake bowls along comfortably in front with no rival applying pressure, setting a smooth, regulated gallop throughout.
McMonagle can manage fractions to suit, arriving at the home turn with a full tank and kicking clear before closers can organise; the Good ground poses no concern and the step up to 1m5f on debut is the only query.
HandshakeWymanKeepsgettingbetterLord Aus
B
Stalker Pounces Late Straight
14% probability
If Handshake's front-running is slightly too ambitious on the clock and the tracking horse gets a perfect tow into contention.
Wyman, racing prominently throughout, is delivered to challenge inside the final two furlongs and Handshake's long layoff of 174 days leaves him short of a peak run; Shane Foley on Wyman can time the challenge to perfection.
WymanKeepsgettingbetterHandshakeLord Aus
C
Hold-Up Horse Finishes Through
9% probability
If the pace is genuinely stronger than expected and Lord Aus gets a true test at 1m5f to unleash his closing run.
Lord Aus's best form is over 12f on Good ground and a true gallop would unlock his one-paced but relentless staying finish; Ben Coen would need to resist going too early from the back of such a small field.
Lord AusWymanKeepsgettingbetterHandshake
D
Pace Collapse, Keepsgettingbetter
5% probability
If Handshake underperforms badly after a 174-day absence and the race falls apart, allowing a prominent challenger to fill the void.
Keepsgettingbetter, a genuine prominent type forced into a midfield role by the map, could push forward and take advantage of a disorganised pace scenario; however its lower OR of 79 and the style-fit discount make this a low-probability outcome.
KeepsgettingbetterWymanLord AusHandshake
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Handshake's 174-day layoff is a tangible risk — watch for any signs of ring-rustiness or greenness in the preliminaries that might undermine his ability to front-run effectively.
WATCH
Keepsgettingbetter may attempt to challenge Handshake for the lead early; if Gavin Ryan pushes forward regardless, it could briefly lift the tempo before one of them capitulates and disrupts the expected shape.
WATCH
Lord Aus needs a genuinely strong gallop to deliver his closing run in a four-runner field — watch the early sectionals to judge whether the pace is generous enough to set him up.
NOTE
Wyman is the only runner whose natural prominent-tracking style perfectly maps to the expected race shape; monitor his position in the opening furlongs to see whether Foley secures the ideal spot just behind Handshake.
8:28 — Turkish Jockey Club Handicap
1m7f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners
Friary Road likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Miss Gitana led; the map had Friary Road in front.
Tatum won at 3.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Friary Road
Prominent · 3
TrubshawTatumJurality
Midfield · 2
Miss GitanaFolly Beach
Hold Up · 3
Party DressJr MahonStone Rulya
Friary Road is the lone confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, should dictate at a sustainable, measured gallop over this 1m7f trip on Good turf at Leopardstown. Trubshaw, Tatum, and Jurality will press for prominent positions behind, meaning the early order is likely to settle quickly with Friary Road controlling the tempo from a comfortable vantage point. The absence of true pace pressure means this race will be run at an even, controlled tempo — a shape that strongly favours horses who can race close to or on the pace and sustain their effort through the long Leopardstown straight, rather than those relying on a late surge off a truly searching gallop. Miss Gitana and Folly Beach are genuine hold-up types that have been redistributed into midfield on the map because true rear positions are overcrowded — in practice, Friary Road and Jurality are best placed to actually secure their natural positions, while the hold-up contingent will find this controlled tempo offering them little acceleration to latch onto late.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Friary Road Controls Throughout
63% probability
If Friary Road is allowed to stride on uncontested and the pack fails to close the gap turning in.
Friary Road settles into a rhythm with no one willing to challenge, and the controlled pace suits those racing prominently behind; Jurality, with a strong recent form string including a win and multiple placings at this sort of trip, is ideally placed to pick up the scraps.
Friary RoadJuralityTatumTrubshaw
B
Prominent Racer Runs Down Leader
19% probability
If the pace is just strong enough that Friary Road weakens in the final furlong and a pressing horse reels her in.
Jurality or Tatum, sitting a length or two off the pace in a prominent position, times a challenge to catch a tiring Friary Road close home; Jurality's consistent recent form at distances around 13-16f on Good ground makes this the most credible stalking threat.
JuralityTatumFriary RoadTrubshaw
C
Hold-Up Horse Storms Late
11% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to string the field out and one of the rear-runners finds a clear run late.
Stone Rulya or Party Dress, racing further back than their position on the map, would need a truly punishing gallop to set up a late charge — the controlled pace forecast makes this a low-probability outcome for true closers.
Stone RulyaParty DressJr MahonMiss Gitana
D
Pace Collapses, Slow-Burn Finish
7% probability
If Friary Road sets an unusually sedate tempo that causes bunching and an unpredictable sprint finish in the final two furlongs.
In a messy, compressed finish, any of the prominent or midfield runners could get involved, but this scenario most benefits Tatum, who has the profile to quicken off a slow pace having won a similar race from just off the speed.
TatumTrubshawJuralityFolly Beach
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Friary Road's unchallenged lead — if Sam Coen rolls along at a comfortable gallop and no one commits to closing, she could steal an uncontested win; watch how quickly she is allowed to stride away in the opening half-mile.
WATCH
Jurality's position at the start — Leigh Roche will want to slot in directly behind Friary Road, and if Tatum or Trubshaw also push forward, a minor jostle for second place could unsettle the early order and briefly lift the pace.
WATCH
Jr Mahon ran just 3 days ago, which is a sharp turnaround for a handicapper at this level; if the horse is not fully recovered, it could stop quickly in the straight and cause interference for horses attempting to come through.
NOTE
Stone Rulya and Miss Gitana, both flagged as faders, are worth monitoring in the final two furlongs — if either weakens abruptly in the straight it narrows the passage for any hold-up horses attempting a late run on the inside.
NOTE
The consistent Good going across all seven Leopardstown races today suggests the ground will ride as advertised and no late bias is expected, keeping the race shape largely as the pace map projects — prominent racers should hold their advantage to the line.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.