Archive›Limerick · 16 April 2026

Limerick

16 April 2026 · 8 races

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1:05 — Locke Burger Mares Maiden Hurdle

2m5½f · Soft · MDN · 13 runners

Kisuton Enki likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Meghan Mala led; the map had Kisuton Enki in front.

Fly Away Home won at 2.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kisuton Enki

Prominent · 1

Babyburn

Midfield · 7

Ma LumiereLittle Neck RoadMeghan MalaLouie's FollyDoing It In StyleChosen PrincessBreeze Of Tobruk

Hold Up · 4

Jessie RoeDream FrequencyDceilingcantholdusFly Away Home

Kisuton Enki appears the only natural front-runner in this field and should get an uncontested lead, with most runners adopting hold-up tactics including prominent types like Babyburn who showed keen tendencies last time. The sustainable pace will allow hold-up horses like Fly Away Home, Meghan Mala, and Louie's Folly to travel well before making their moves approaching the final hurdle. With limited early pace pressure, this race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and late closers who can pick up the pieces from the back of the field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Holds

35% probability

If Kisuton Enki gets an easy lead and stays on strongly

The lack of pace pressure allows the front-runner to dictate terms and kick clear when the field comes to challenge. Hold-up horses may find themselves with too much ground to make up despite the moderate gallop.

Kisuton EnkiBabyburnFly Away HomeLouie's Folly

Late Surge Prevails

45% probability

If the moderate pace allows closers to arrive with strong finishes

The sustainable gallop sets up perfectly for horses held up off the pace to unleash decisive late runs. Quality hold-up horses with finishing kicks will find the race falling into their laps.

Fly Away HomeLouie's FollyMeghan MalaDoing It In Style

Mid-Race Pace Injection

12% probability

If Babyburn or another prominent runner forces the pace earlier than expected

A faster mid-race tempo stretches the field and favours horses with tactical speed who can position closer to the pace. The genuine stayers benefit while one-paced types struggle to respond.

Meghan MalaDceilingcantholdusFly Away HomeChosen Princess

Maiden Shock Winner

8% probability

If the fancied runners fail to fire and an outsider benefits from the race shape

The moderate pace allows an unfancied horse with stamina to stay on strongly when others stop. A lightly-raced type or improver could capitalise on the tactical setup.

Ma LumiereLittle Neck RoadChosen PrincessJessie Roe

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Kisuton Enki was reportedly lame when pulled up last time and faces major fitness test after 471-day absence

WATCH

Babyburn showed keen tendencies last time and any early pace battle could compromise stamina reserves for all involved

NOTE

Several runners including Jessie Roe and Chosen Princess have raced within the last 11 days, monitor for signs of hard races taking toll

NOTE

Multiple 7lb claimers aboard suggests several connections lack confidence in their chances despite decent breeding

WATCH

Dream Frequency is listed as non-runner which removes one potential hold-up threat from the equation

1:35 — D & J Glazing Handicap Hurdle

2m5½f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners

Ma Jacks Hill likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Colleen Danu led; the map had Ma Jacks Hill in front.

Miss Corby won at 5.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ma Jacks Hill

Prominent · 1

Colleen Danu

Midfield · 4

Jay Jay ZeeCrowsatedappletartMiss CorbyWay Down South

Hold Up · 2

CollaborativeGrange Walk

Ma Jacks Hill will likely set a steady gallop from the front with minimal early pressure in this 8-runner field. The prominent runners Colleen Danu may track close behind, but the majority of this field comprises hold-up horses including Collaborative, Crowsatedappletart, Jay Jay Zee, Grange Walk, Way Down South, and Miss Corby. With so many waiting tactics and soft ground conditions demanding stamina, the pace will be sustainable early before quickening from the final hurdle. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and those with tactical speed who can position handy, as the soft ground and bunched field will create a sprint finish where being close to the pace proves decisive.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

55% probability

If Ma Jacks Hill and Colleen Danu establish ideal positions tracking the early pace.

The soft ground saps the finishing kick of hold-up horses while those positioned handy can respond to the quickening tempo from two out. Ma Jacks Hill's front-running style and Colleen Danu's prominent racing prove perfectly suited to this tactical setup.

Ma Jacks HillColleen DanuCollaborativeCrowsatedappletart

Hold-Up Horse Strikes

25% probability

If the early pace becomes too steady and creates a genuine sprint finish from the back of the last.

Collaborative or Crowsatedappletart can utilise their class advantage and finishing speed to sweep past tiring leaders. The soft ground still allows enough time for a patient ride to be rewarded with late momentum.

CollaborativeCrowsatedappletartMa Jacks HillWay Down South

Veteran Experience Pays

12% probability

If Grange Walk or the returning Jay Jay Zee find their old form in testing conditions.

Grange Walk's course victory last year and Jay Jay Zee's fresh legs after 901 days off give them unique angles in this competitive field. Their experience of hurdles racing and ability to handle soft ground could surprise a field largely focused on other contenders.

Grange WalkJay Jay ZeeMa Jacks HillCollaborative

Outsider Surprise Package

8% probability

If Way Down South's recent course form and first-time headgear combination clicks perfectly.

The 7-year-old's course maiden win earlier this season and successful fence debut in January suggest upward trajectory. Her low weight of 145lbs and positive headgear change could provide the edge needed to outrun her odds.

Way Down SouthMiss CorbyColleen DanuGrange Walk

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ma Jacks Hill's jumping and stamina after 108 days off - any early mistakes or signs of rustiness could end chances quickly.

WATCH

Jay Jay Zee's fitness levels and jumping accuracy after 901 days away from racecourse will be immediately apparent from flag fall.

WATCH

Collaborative's ability to secure handy position early given hold-up style may determine whether class advantage can be utilized.

NOTE

Way Down South's headgear combination of tongue plate working effectively as shown in recent fence success at Cork.

NOTE

Crowsatedappletart's trademark late surge from final hurdle - if absent, suggests conditions or fitness issues.

2:10 — Monk Bar Maiden Hurdle

3m · Soft · MDN · 8 runners

He Can't Dance to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

He Can't Dance and King's Bucks led, as the map showed.

He Can't Dance won at 2.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

He Can't Dance

Prominent · 1

King's Bucks

Midfield · 4

Casual WaterTradonthebayStrand Street LassSam's Favourite

Hold Up · 2

Loyal PraetorianThree County Star

He Can't Dance will lead with no obvious challenger for the early pace in this maiden hurdle field. King's Bucks sits prominent behind the leader while the majority of the field adopts hold-up tactics, creating a waiting game scenario. The soft ground will emphasize stamina over speed, and with limited pace pressure early, this sets up perfectly for front-runners and prominent racers who can control their effort. This race shape strongly favours leaders and prominent runners who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will engulf the large pack of hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If He Can't Dance gets an easy lead without pressure through the early stages

The proven front-runner can dictate ideal fractions and kick clear when ready, while the pack of hold-up horses face traffic and ground loss. His consistent placing record suggests he can capitalize on this tactical advantage.

He Can't DanceKing's BucksCasual WaterLoyal Praetorian

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If King's Bucks travels smoothly behind He Can't Dance and has clear running room

The classy De Bromhead runner can use his superior ability to overhaul the leader in the straight, benefiting from the solid pace without doing the donkey work. His Grade 2 Cheltenham form gives him a significant class edge over this field.

King's BucksHe Can't DanceCasual WaterLoyal Praetorian

Mullins Newcomer Surprises

15% probability

If Casual Water shows natural ability on debut and gets a good position early

The Altior half-brother could have enough natural talent to overcome the tactical disadvantage of hold-up tactics in a race lacking depth. Townend's presence suggests confidence in the horse's ability.

Casual WaterKing's BucksHe Can't DanceLoyal Praetorian

Pace Collapses Late

10% probability

If the early pace becomes crawling slow and turns into a sprint finish

The hold-up horses get their chance in a tactical affair where class matters most over positioning. However, the soft ground makes this unlikely to develop into a true sprint.

King's BucksCasual WaterHe Can't DanceLoyal Praetorian

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

He Can't Dance must be watched for any early pressure as his whole chance depends on an uncontested lead

WATCH

King's Bucks needs to be monitored for jumping fluency early as any mistakes could compromise his tracking position

NOTE

Casual Water's early positioning will reveal Mullins' tactical plan and confidence level in the newcomer's ability

WATCH

The large group of hold-up horses behind the leaders creates high risk for traffic problems and ground loss

NOTE

Jockey movements in the back half of the field will signal which trainers expect their horses to be competitive

2:45 — D'Icon Novice Handicap Hurdle

2m · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners

Hardy Stuff likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Shellrunforbriggs and Market Ready led; the map had Hardy Stuff in front.

Shellrunforbriggs won at 4.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hardy Stuff

Prominent · 2

Something NobleSense Of Occasion

Midfield · 3

Chosen ShantMarket ReadyShellrunforbriggs

Hold Up · 2

Arctic FlamePiccolo Player

Hardy Stuff will set the pace from the front with minimal pressure, as the only confirmed front-runner in this field. The prominent runners (Sense Of Occasion, Something Noble, Chosen Shant) will track at a respectful distance, allowing Hardy Stuff to dictate comfortable fractions on the soft ground. With most of the field (Arctic Flame, Piccolo Player, Shellrunforbriggs, Market Ready) adopting hold-up tactics, there's no early speed pressure to create a strong gallop. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours the hold-up horses who can finish with one telling late run.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustained Kick Scenario

55% probability

If Hardy Stuff sets uncontested fractions and the hold-up horses get their preferred strong finish

The soft ground and lack of pace pressure allows the backmarkers to unleash one decisive move, with Arctic Flame and Market Ready best positioned to capitalize on their proven finishing speed. Hardy Stuff's lack of recent competitive form under pressure becomes exposed.

Arctic FlameMarket ReadyPiccolo PlayerShellrunforbriggs

Front Running Holds

25% probability

If Hardy Stuff maintains his Christmas form and the soft ground blunts the finishers' kicks

The Gordon Elliott-trained gelding uses his superior class rating (OR 123) to control the race throughout, with the hold-up horses unable to make up sufficient ground in the testing conditions. Jack Kennedy's tactical nous keeps Hardy Stuff just ahead of the late challengers.

Hardy StuffSomething NobleSense Of OccasionArctic Flame

Prominent Tracker Wins

12% probability

If the pace becomes truly pedestrian and the prominent runners get first run on the field

Sense Of Occasion or Something Noble can use their tracking positions to steal a march before the hold-up horses organize their challenge. Mark Walsh's experience on Sense Of Occasion proves crucial in timing the decisive move.

Sense Of OccasionSomething NobleHardy StuffArctic Flame

Pace Collapse Surprise

8% probability

If Hardy Stuff stops quickly and no other pace is forthcoming, creating a sprint finish

The race becomes a messy affair with multiple horses hitting the front in the final furlong, allowing an outsider like Chosen Shant to benefit from the chaos. The veteran's experience in these conditions gives him an edge in a blanket finish.

Chosen ShantPiccolo PlayerMarket ReadyShellrunforbriggs

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hardy Stuff's early position - if he's not allowed an easy lead, his jumping under pressure becomes questionable

WATCH

Market Ready's finishing position turning for home - if he's too far back on this track, he won't get there in time

WATCH

Sense Of Occasion's freshness after 86 days off - any early signs of rustiness will compromise his prominent racing style

NOTE

The pace through the first mile - if it's genuinely slow, the hold-up horses' task becomes much harder

NOTE

Piccolo Player's early settling - his tendency to pull hard could be fatal in these testing conditions

3:20 — Big Boss Group Handicap Hurdle

2m · Soft · HCAP · 21 runners

Only A Dollar likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Gaoithe Glory led; the map had Only A Dollar in front.

Springboard won at 9.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Only A Dollar

Prominent · 2

UptaurintopSpringboard

Midfield · 12

Comanche MoonDontcaveinThe ToothpickerMidnight EagleThirsty WorkLiss EileWild Wild WindPatrick StreetSidiriyaMudslide MollyOut Moll's GapAvandra

Hold Up · 6

HoundsworthThe Dancen KidBarryroe MadamTeagarden JazzGaoithe GloryCoup d'Essay

Only A Dollar is the sole confirmed front runner in this large handicap field and will likely get an uncontested lead with Springboard and Uptaurintop settling prominently behind. The soft ground and 2m distance will allow Only A Dollar to dictate a steady tempo without pressure, creating a tactical race where positioning becomes crucial. With most of the field preferring to come from off the pace, including the stronger-rated horses like Houndsworth, The Toothpicker, and Midnight Eagle, the lack of early pace pressure means Only A Dollar can control proceedings. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and those who can track the pace, as hold-up horses will face a difficult task making up ground on testing ground from what could become a strung-out field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Only A Dollar gets soft sectionals and stays strong

The uncontested leader kicks clear approaching the last and holds off late challengers who struggle to make up ground on the testing surface. Her ability to control the tempo from the front proves decisive in a race lacking early pace pressure.

Only A DollarSpringboardUptaurintopWild Wild Wind

Late Rally Succeeds

30% probability

If the pace becomes too steady and collapses

Hold-up horses get the perfect setup as the field bunches turning for home, allowing class to tell. The stronger-rated horses can unleash late kicks despite the soft ground disadvantage.

The ToothpickerHoundsworthMidnight EagleThe Dancen Kid

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If Only A Dollar weakens approaching the last hurdle

Horses positioned just behind the leader inherit the race as the front runner's stamina gives out. The tactical advantage of tracking the pace without setting it proves optimal.

UptaurintopSpringboardWild Wild WindPatrick Street

Complete Collapse

10% probability

If Only A Dollar fails to handle the ground or distance

The lack of other natural pace-setters creates a crawling tempo that suits nothing, leading to a messy finish where any horse could emerge. Fitness and jockey judgement become paramount factors.

Barryroe MadamComanche MoonTeagarden JazzLiss Eile

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Only A Dollar could get perfect conditions with uncontested lead and 207-day absence fitness concerns dismissed

WATCH

Watch for market confidence behind Houndsworth despite top weight as recent winner with upward trajectory

NOTE

Jack Kennedy's booking of Uptaurintop suggests stable expects better than recent fade-in-finish efforts

WATCH

Cromwell's Coup d'Essay making handicap debut with opening mark potentially lenient for yard's strike rate

NOTE

Multiple horses returning from lengthy layoffs including Gaoithe Glory and Barryroe Madam need market checks

3:55 — Professor Maria Hinfelaar Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

2m3½f · Soft · HCAP · 18 runners

Brother Hollie likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Brave Endeavour and Carlas Big Jim led; the map had Brother Hollie in front.

Cooltubrid Eva won at 34.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

6 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Brother Hollie

Prominent · 1

Hakensack

Midfield · 11

Let Him BKnockbrack RamblerThe Rebel CountyLispoppleBrave EndeavourUncle GerhardLoi Des JeuxCooltubrid EvaCarlas Big JimCan't Catch MollyPort Rashid

Hold Up · 5

Fenian MaxiosPotters PalMount ShenshanClassy CcPoppycon

Brother Hollie is the only confirmed front runner in this 18-runner field, giving him an uncontested lead early on at a sustainable pace. The majority of runners are hold-up horses, meaning they'll settle towards the back and rely on staying power up the hill. With minimal early pace pressure, the race will develop into a staying test where those with stamina reserves can pick off the tiring leaders. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and strong stayers who can unleash late kicks in the testing ground conditions.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

60% probability

If Brother Hollie sets a steady pace uncontested early

The lack of pace pressure allows hold-up horses to travel smoothly before unleashing their finishing kicks up Limerick's demanding hill. Strong stayers like Mount Shenshan and Potters Pal can time their challenges perfectly.

Mount ShenshanPotters PalFenian MaxiosClassy Cc

Pace Collapses Late

25% probability

If Brother Hollie's lack of experience shows and the pace becomes truly crawling

The race turns into a sprint finish where horses with tactical speed rather than pure stamina prevail. This helps those who can quicken despite their hold-up style.

Classy CcHakensackPoppyconThe Rebel County

Brother Hollie Stays Strong

10% probability

If the 4-year-old Brother Hollie learns from his Down Royal experience and maintains his kick

His uncontested lead combined with natural improvement could see him hold off the closers up the hill. The testing ground helps his stamina reserves last home.

Brother HollieLet Him BMount ShenshanPotters Pal

Prominent Tracker Strikes

5% probability

If one of the hold-up horses tracks closer than usual behind Brother Hollie

They get first run on the field while avoiding the energy-sapping late charge from the back. This tactical switch proves decisive in the testing conditions.

HakensackUncle GerhardMount ShenshanClassy Cc

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Brother Hollie could struggle with quick turnaround from Down Royal just 4 days ago, especially if pace becomes demanding

WATCH

Several runners including Lispopple and Brave Endeavour have concerning recent form with pull-ups and poor efforts

NOTE

Mount Shenshan and Potters Pal both won their most recent soft ground starts, making them key form horses to follow

WATCH

The 18-runner field could cause traffic problems for hold-up horses if they get too far back early

NOTE

Hakensack switching trainers to Rothwell after solid course form could signal a betting move worth noting

4:30 — Professor Maria Hinfelaar Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

2m3½f · Soft · HCAP · 17 runners

Rebel Cowgirl to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Rebel Cowgirl and The Little Yank led, as the map showed.

Opposite Ends won at 5.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Rebel Cowgirl

Prominent · 2

Minority InterestBoola Times

Midfield · 9

Opposite EndsDiamond IslandCrafty GaelLe FanuLizzymacShanroe NelsonFalcon ParkGerrymanderingBallingurteen

Hold Up · 5

Ask The BookieThe Little YankMickey HulieWise ManOrlando Spirit

Rebel Cowgirl is the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate terms from the flag, with only Minority Interest and Boola Times likely to race prominently early. With 14 of 17 runners adopting hold-up tactics, the early pace will be moderate rather than punishing, allowing Rebel Cowgirl to build a potentially decisive advantage. The large field of hold-up horses creates a nightmare scenario for positioning, with many forced to race wide or get shuffled back. This race shape strongly favours the early leaders and prominent racers who can avoid the traffic problems that will engulf the backmarkers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front-runner dominates field

55% probability

If Rebel Cowgirl sets sustainable fractions without pressure from the overwhelming number of hold-up horses

She can dictate ideal splits and kick clear when the hold-up brigade are still trying to get organized behind her. The 8lb rise for her recent win becomes irrelevant when she gets such a tactical advantage.

Rebel CowgirlMinority InterestBoola TimesOrlando Spirit

Prominent horses prevail

25% probability

If Minority Interest and Boola Times can track Rebel Cowgirl closely and capitalize when she weakens

They avoid the traffic chaos affecting the hold-up horses while getting first run on the leader. Their class edge over Rebel Cowgirl shows when they have clear sailing.

Minority InterestBoola TimesMickey HulieThe Little Yank

Strong stayer emerges late

12% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely testing and the distance sorts out the field

Mickey Hulie's recent 3m success at Naas gives him the stamina edge when others stop. The Little Yank's veteran guile could also see him thread through late.

Mickey HulieThe Little YankOrlando SpiritCrafty Gael

Chaos creates upset winner

8% probability

If the pace collapses completely or there are significant fallers/interference

A well-positioned outsider like Falcon Park or Orlando Spirit could capitalize on the mayhem. Recent improvement makes them capable of big-price victories.

Falcon ParkOrlando SpiritDiamond IslandOpposite Ends

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Rebel Cowgirl could get an uncontested lead with 14 hold-up horses potentially allowing her to dictate ideal fractions

WATCH

Traffic problems will be severe in the home straight with so many hold-up horses needing room simultaneously

WATCH

Several runners including Boola Times, Rebel Cowgirl and Shanroe Nelson have marked fading tendencies over this trip

NOTE

Orlando Spirit and Falcon Park have shown recent improvement for new connections and could outrun their odds

NOTE

The 35-day breaks for The Little Yank, Mickey Hulie and Shanroe Nelson may leave them short of peak fitness

5:05 — Sinbin Events INH Flat Race

2m3½f · Soft · DEFAULT · 9 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 16 April 2026.

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