ShirleynightingaleLook At YouBallyhahillHunting GoldKashel SpringBoogie InthejungleEitilt
Hold Up · 3
CodiceShirzanLouie's Folly
Rebel Queen will likely set the early pace with minimal pressure, creating a sustainable tempo that should suit the large contingent of hold-up horses. The race will develop into a tactical affair with most runners held up for late challenges, making it crucial for the pace-setters to maintain galloping room turning for home.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustainable Pace Suits Leaders
30% probability
If Rebel Queen maintains a steady gallop without being pressed early
The moderate early pace allows prominent runners to stay in touch and finish strongly. Late challengers struggle to make up ground on the leaders who conserve energy.
Rebel QueenLouie's FollyCodiceShirzan
B
Strong Pace Collapse
25% probability
If the early pace becomes too strong or Rebel Queen ties up
The front runners fade badly in the final furlong after setting unsustainable fractions. Hold-up horses with the strongest finishing kicks benefit most from the pace collapse.
CodiceHunting GoldShirzanLouie's Folly
C
Tactical Crawl Sprint Finish
35% probability
If Rebel Queen goes too slow and the field bunches up approaching the final hurdle
The race becomes a tactical crawl leading to a chaotic sprint finish where positioning and traffic luck matter most. Horses with proven finishing speed and jumping ability thrive in the melee.
ShirzanCodiceLook At YouBallyhahill
D
Newcomer Surprise
10% probability
If one of the lightly-raced fillies shows unexpectedly strong form on debut over hurdles
The unraced fillies prove far superior to their experienced rivals who have exposed limitations. Superior natural ability overcomes lack of experience in a weak maiden field.
Look At YouBallyhahillShirleynightingaleCodice
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Rebel Queen could get an uncontested lead and prove hard to peg back if the pace becomes too slow
WATCH
Codice's jumping technique under pressure as she transitions from Flat racing to hurdles on testing ground
WATCH
Traffic problems developing at the final hurdle if the pace becomes tactical with many hold-up horses converging
NOTE
How the three newcomers jump and travel compared to their experienced but limited rivals
NOTE
Whether Shirzan can get the strong pace she needs with only Rebel Queen likely to go forward early
4:40 — Ryans Cleaning (C & G) Maiden Hurdle
2m · Soft · MDN · 11 runners
Manoir De Mirande to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Manoir De Mirande
Prominent · 1
Crooked Path
Midfield · 6
Trev The RevIvebeenkewadesertFiveandahalfBeauvallonFolk WarriorPilgrims Walk
Hold Up · 3
Try ThemChief JosefElman
Manoir De Mirande will take the field along at a steady gallop with little pressure from the lightly-raced newcomers and predominantly hold-up runners behind. With Crooked Path the only prominent runner to challenge early, the pace will be controlled and sustainable, setting up a tactical finish where stamina and jumping efficiency become decisive factors.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Front Running
35% probability
If Manoir De Mirande maintains his rhythm and jumps cleanly throughout
The leader gets an easy time of it and has enough left to resist late challengers. The hold-up brigade struggle to make significant inroads against solid jumping and tactical awareness.
Manoir De MirandeCrooked PathTry ThemBeauvallon
B
Late Surge Prevails
30% probability
If the pace becomes too slow and bunches the field for a sprint finish
The hold-up runners get their ideal scenario with a strong pace injection in the final half-mile. Superior class tells when horses hit top gear simultaneously.
Try ThemBeauvallonChief JosefElman
C
Newcomer Surprise
20% probability
If one of the lightly-raced horses shows significantly more ability than expected
Fresh legs and unexposed talent prove decisive as the race unfolds at a rhythm that suits progressive types. Experience counts for less than raw ability and good jumping.
FiveandahalfIvebeenkewadesertTrev The RevManoir De Mirande
D
Stamina Test
15% probability
If the soft ground and 2-mile trip catches out several runners in the final quarter-mile
The race becomes a war of attrition where proven stayers with soft ground form come to the fore. Jumping errors or stamina lapses eliminate several contenders.
Crooked PathManoir De MirandeElmanTry Them
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Manoir De Mirande's jumping under pressure - any mistake when challenged could prove costly
WATCH
Whether Crooked Path tracks the leader early or drops back, as this affects pace pressure significantly
NOTE
How quickly the three newcomers settle and their positioning through the first half-mile
WATCH
The ground conditions in the home straight which could deteriorate further and affect stamina demands
NOTE
Folk Warrior and Pilgrims Walk's finishing kick given both have shown tendencies to fade late
5:10 — Ryans Cleaning Maiden Hurdle
2m · Soft · MDN · 12 runners
Listentomewillya to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Listentomewillya
Prominent · 2
Brackens JetEl Phenomeno
Midfield · 5
Blazing DukeKoeur A PrendreAny ChanceDaisy FingallJetstream Jeff
Listentomewillya is the only confirmed front-runner and should get an uncontested lead, setting a sustainable pace without pressure from the predominantly hold-up field. With nine of twelve runners preferring to come from behind, the race will develop into a late-developing finish where positioning and stamina become crucial over the final 3-4 furlongs.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Lead Holds
35% probability
If Listentomewillya gets easy fractions and stays on strongly
The leader builds an insurmountable advantage while the hold-up brigade leave too much to do in testing soft ground conditions. Brackens Jet and El Phenomeno emerge best of the prominent/midfield runners but can't peg back the winner.
ListentomewillyaBrackens JetEl PhenomenoBlazing Duke
B
Late Surge Prevails
40% probability
If the hold-up horses time their challenges perfectly and find the leader vulnerable
Thisain'tthat and Endless Talking produce strong finishes to overwhelm a tiring Listentomewillya in the final furlong. The soft ground plays to their stamina strengths despite giving the leader first run.
Thisain'tthatEndless TalkingListentomewillyaKoeur A Prendre
C
Prominent Pair Strike
15% probability
If Brackens Jet and El Phenomeno avoid their usual fading tendencies
The two prominent runners track Listentomewillya perfectly and kick clear when the hold-up horses are still making ground. Their tactical positioning proves decisive over the pure hold-up merchants.
If Listentomewillya stops dramatically and all hold-up horses struggle
The soft ground and modest pace creates a messy finish where fitness and jumping become more important than class. Blazing Duke's stamina or Royal Belief's experience could prove decisive in a war of attrition.
Blazing DukeRoyal BeliefKoeur A PrendreEndless Talking
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Monitor if Listentomewillya gets too easy a lead early - could prove unstoppable if allowed to dictate completely
WATCH
Watch Thisain'tthat and Endless Talking for market confidence - any strong support suggests connections expect big runs
WATCH
Check if Brackens Jet or El Phenomeno adopt more aggressive tactics to avoid their usual fading finishes
NOTE
Observe Royal Belief's jumping - any mistakes will end chances given his tendency to weaken anyway
NOTE
Look for Blazing Duke traveling well turning in - unknown stamina could be trump card if race develops slowly
ShellrunforbriggsElsannahWesternersunriseWalk In The CloudsLovely Reaction
Rebel Cowgirl and Millie B will contest the early lead, with both having pace-setting styles but concerning fade patterns. This dual engagement up front should create an honest gallop that will test their stamina over this extended trip, potentially setting up the race for the large contingent of hold-up horses to come from behind.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Collapse Finish
45% probability
If Rebel Cowgirl and Millie B duel early and fade badly in the closing stages
The extended gallop will suit the proven stayers among the hold-up horses who can time their runs. Shellrunforbriggs and Elsannah have the class and finishing kick to capitalize on a collapsed pace scenario.
ShellrunforbriggsElsannahWesternersunriseWalk In The Clouds
B
Sustained Pace Battle
25% probability
If one of the front-runners maintains their effort while the other fades, creating uneven pace pressure
A more controlled tempo allows prominent runners like Roccabaker to stay closer and the better hold-up horses to still finish strongly. The race becomes more tactical with positioning crucial in the straight.
If Rebel Cowgirl gets an uncontested lead with Millie B dropping back early
The pace becomes more sedate allowing the leader to conserve energy for a sustained finish. Rebel Cowgirl's recent win from the front on soft ground makes her dangerous if allowed easy fractions.
Rebel CowgirlWestandtogetherChemdawgCooltubrid Eva
D
Messy Pace Development
10% probability
If both pace-setters are restrained early creating a slowly-run race with a sprint finish
The lack of early pace creates a bunched field and cavalry charge finish where class and a turn of foot matter most. Higher-rated horses with tactical speed have the advantage in a sprint scenario.
Lovely ReactionWesternersunriseShellrunforbriggsClassy Cc
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Rebel Cowgirl and Millie B setting unsustainable fractions early could collapse and create a cavalry charge finish
WATCH
Dolly Watkins, Walk In The Clouds, Annie Button, and Peppers Corner all show fade patterns that make them risky in a stamina test
NOTE
Shellrunforbriggs and Elsannah both carry top weight but have the class and soft ground form to overcome the burden
NOTE
Westandtogether's perfect record on similar going makes her a key danger if getting the right pace setup
WATCH
Nashville Notions has never placed on soft ground in 4 attempts making her vulnerable on this surface
Sophia Rose and Syracus Du Houx will likely set the early pace with Teescomponentsyess tracking prominently, creating a moderate gallop rather than breakneck speed. The large field of hold-up horses including Malbas, Hello Jack, and Midnight Moonshine will bunch behind the leaders, setting up a tactical finish where stamina and jumping accuracy become crucial on the testing soft ground.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Collapses Early
35% probability
If the early leaders tire dramatically from the 3-out, allowing late closers full rein
The moderate early pace becomes pedestrian when Sophia Rose and Syracus Du Houx weaken, giving the patient hold-up horses perfect conditions. Malbas and Hello Jack capitalize with their superior ratings while Midnight Moonshine benefits from the true test of stamina.
MalbasHello JackMidnight MoonshineWay Down South
B
Sustained Gallop Throughout
30% probability
If Sophia Rose maintains her effort to the home turn with Teescomponentsyess still tracking
The pace stays honest but not punishing, creating a fair test where class and jumping matter most. The prominent racers get first run while the hold-up brigade faces a traffic-laden charge from the back.
Sophia RoseTeescomponentsyessSyracus Du HouxMalbas
C
Messy Jumping Disrupts
25% probability
If multiple fallers or bad jumps scatter the field and break the rhythm of favorites
The soft ground causes jumping errors that reshape the race completely, favoring sure-footed horses who avoid trouble. Duffys Hodey and Way Down South benefit from their excellent soft ground records while others struggle with fluency.
Duffys HodeyWay Down SouthShanroe ActAnother Ocana
D
Sprint Finish Develops
10% probability
If the pace is very steady until a furious acceleration from 2-out catches hold-up horses cold
The early moderate pace suddenly ignites into a sprint finish that favors horses positioned prominently or with tactical speed. Teescomponentsyess and any hold-up horse close enough to respond quickly will thrive while the back markers are stranded.
TeescomponentsyessMidnight MoonshineMalbasSophia Rose
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Sophia Rose may fold quickly if pressed early, as she lacks proven stamina for this extended trip on testing ground
WATCH
Malbas has never won on soft ground despite decent placed efforts, making his effectiveness on today's surface questionable
WATCH
The large field of hold-up horses could create a cavalry charge that leaves several unlucky in running, particularly those drawn wide
NOTE
Duffys Hodey's exceptional soft ground record makes him dangerous despite his moderate rating if the ground plays to type
NOTE
Teescomponentsyess could benefit significantly if positioned closer to the pace than his usual hold-up style suggests
6:42 — Vision Contracting Handicap Chase
2m2f · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners
Lead contested: Mount Frisco v Doyen MagicHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 2
Mount FriscoDoyen Magic
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 3
Come On The LadsIts Not Over YetMarelly
Hold Up · 2
Spinning WebQuest With Speed
Mount Frisco and Doyen Magic will ensure genuine early pace as both prefer to lead, creating an honest gallop from the start. The five hold-up horses will benefit from this setup, with the soft ground helping stamina types over 2m2f. This pace battle between the front pair should set up a strong finish for the closers.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Closers Benefit Strong Pace
40% probability
If Mount Frisco and Doyen Magic duel early and weaken
The genuine gallop plays into the hands of the hold-up brigade who can pick up the pieces. Quest With Speed and Spinning Web are best positioned to capitalize with their proven closing ability.
Quest With SpeedSpinning WebCome On The LadsIts Not Over Yet
B
Front Runner Survives
25% probability
If Mount Frisco gets an uncontested lead while Doyen Magic settles
Mount Frisco can dictate terms and has the class to see off challenges, especially with recent heavy ground form. His OR 112 gives him a solid chance if avoiding the early battle.
Mount FriscoDoyen MagicMarellyIts Not Over Yet
C
Late Surge Prevails
20% probability
If the pace is steady early then quickens dramatically late
Come On The Lads and Marelly benefit from a tactical affair that becomes a sprint finish. Both have shown ability to win from the back when the race develops into a dash.
Come On The LadsMarellyQuest With SpeedSpinning Web
D
Doyen Magic Wire Job
15% probability
If Doyen Magic settles better than expected behind Mount Frisco
Despite the low OR 95, Doyen Magic has been running well in better company recently. A patient ride could see him spring a surprise at decent odds.
Doyen MagicIts Not Over YetMount FriscoQuest With Speed
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Mount Frisco and Doyen Magic must be monitored early - if they go too fast together both are vulnerable
WATCH
Quest With Speed needs to be positioned within striking distance turning for home given the small field
NOTE
Come On The Lads requires a genuine gallop throughout to showcase his finishing kick
WATCH
Spinning Web's jumping must be accurate as any mistakes will be costly in a small field
NOTE
The pace in the first mile will determine whether this becomes a test of stamina or speed
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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