5:23 — Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes
1m2f · Standard · HCAP · 9 runners
Booziebrunch likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Alice De Clare and Turku led; the map had Booziebrunch in front.
Alice De Clare won at 8.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Booziebrunch
Prominent · 3
KaaranahAlice De ClareTurku
Midfield · 2
Eagles AttireJack Sparowe
Hold Up · 3
Barbury BoyCity Of GodBarry's Boy
Booziebrunch is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine pace rival likely to push them off the lead, should control tempo from the outset at Lingfield's AW circuit over 1m2f. Alice De Clare, Turku, and Kaaranah will all press for prominent positions just off the leader, creating a compact early order but not a truly contested lead — the pace should be honest rather than scorching on Standard going. Jack Sparowe is a natural hold-up horse redistributed into the midfield map position because the field holds more hold-up types than the rear of the race can accommodate; Jack Sparowe, City Of God, and Barry's Boy are all genuine closers who will need to make ground in the straight. This race shape — a single front-runner setting a controlled, sustainable pace with prominent types tracking close — strongly favours horses with good tactical speed who can sit handily and quicken from an organised position, placing the prominent-to-midfield profile at a premium over deep closers who may find the pace insufficiently strong to create the gaps they need.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Booziebrunch Controls Cleanly
62% probability
If Booziebrunch leads uncontested and sets a fair but manageable gallop that suits those tracking within two lengths.
Booziebrunch dictates from the front and, with no horse willing to match strides early, controls the race throughout the 1m2f trip and is hard to peg back on a tight AW circuit; horses tracking in prominent positions — particularly Kaaranah and Alice De Clare — have the first opportunity to challenge and are ideally placed when the race ignites from the two-furlong pole.
KaaranahAlice De ClareBooziebrunchTurku
B
Prominent Horse Swoops
18% probability
If the pace is strong enough to stop Booziebrunch but a prominent tracker picks up sharply in the straight.
Kaaranah — with four wins at this course and distance on Standard AW — is ideally positioned to exploit any fade from Booziebrunch, while Alice De Clare's hat-trick of wins over 10 furlongs on Good ground suggests she has the quality to assert once Booziebrunch is headed.
KaaranahAlice De ClareTurkuBooziebrunch
C
Hold-Up Horse Pounces
12% probability
If the pace is strong enough to string the field out and leave genuine closers with daylight in the final furlong.
Barry's Boy and City Of God are natural hold-up types who could produce a late run if the gallop is genuinely strong, but both face an uphill task given Lingfield AW favours those who can travel; Jack Sparowe, though racing out of preferred position, remains a course-and-distance placed horse who could make up ground if the gaps materialise.
Barry's BoyJack SparoweCity Of GodBooziebrunch
D
Race Collapses Into Dash
8% probability
If the pace is falsely slow and the race degenerates into a sprint finish from two furlongs out.
In a messy dash for home, form figures become less reliable and unexposed or improving types like Barbury Boy — who has shown a turn of foot in small fields on Good ground — could surprise, while Eagles Attire at longer odds might find a slow-run race playing to a one-paced closer profile; however this scenario is the least likely given Booziebrunch's front-running profile.
Barbury BoyEagles AttireKaaranahAlice De Clare
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Kaaranah's weight of 142lbs is the highest in the field — watch whether it is sent up to track Booziebrunch promptly from stall, as any sluggish start could compromise its ability to settle in the prominent position its course record demands.
WATCH
Booziebrunch is the lone front-runner and any significant drift in the market or a slow break from stall could allow Alice De Clare or Turku to steal the lead and entirely reshape the pace dynamic.
WATCH
Turku wears a visor for the first time or as a headgear change — watch the pre-race behaviour and early strides; if the horse jumps sharply and travels with more purpose than recent efforts suggest, it becomes a live danger at a bigger price.
NOTE
Eagles Attire has had 101 days off and has no AW experience — watch the paddock for condition and how it handles the surface in the early furlongs, as a well-backed debut on Polytrack would signal trainer confidence worth noting.
NOTE
Jack Sparowe and Barry's Boy are both natural hold-up horses who will need the pace to be genuinely strong to get into the race late — if Booziebrunch sets only a modest gallop, monitor whether either is able to make meaningful headway before the home turn or whether they are effectively out of the race by that point.
5:58 — Follow @AtTheRaces On X EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Band D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)
7f · Standard · CLS4 · 12 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:28 — Emilies 21st Birthday Handicap Stakes
7f · Standard · HCAP · 13 runners
Quick Quasar to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Elvetham and Wind Summer led; the map had Quick Quasar in front.
Split Elevens won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Quick Quasar
Prominent · 4
Spirit Of BreezeChelioCaptive BeautyOxford Circus
Midfield · 4
My Dad TomMidnight's DreamFranciscoElvetham
Hold Up · 4
LerwickWind SummerSplit ElevensBlue Samuna
Quick Quasar is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 13-runner field and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, is almost certain to dictate from the front at a sustainable gallop over Lingfield's 7f AW straight. Chelio, Captive Beauty, Spirit Of Breeze, and Oxford Circus will push forward into prominent positions just behind, creating a compact early order with the pace controlled rather than injected. The large contingent of nominal hold-up types — Midnight's Dream, Francisco, My Dad Tom, and Elvetham — are redistributed to midfield on the map because there is no room for all of them at the rear in a race this shape; their true closing ability will be compromised by the position they are forced to settle in. This race shape strongly favours horses who can travel prominently behind a single, unchallenged front-runner and produce a sustained run from 2f out, as the moderate, uncontested pace is unlikely to generate the gap that true closers need to deliver late.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Quasar Controls, Prominent Win
54% probability
If Quick Quasar leads unchallenged and the prominent trackers kick past in the final furlong.
Quick Quasar sets a metronomic tempo that suits horses sitting just off the pace, and with no rival forcing a true test, those tracking in second or third position have the most energy to deploy in the straight. Spirit Of Breeze and Split Elevens, both proven at 7f on this surface and capable of prominent racing, are ideally placed to pounce.
Spirit Of BreezeSplit ElevensChelioCaptive Beauty
B
Quasar Holds On Wire
22% probability
If Quick Quasar's lead is never seriously threatened and the pace is too slow to reel her in.
With no pressure applied early, Quick Quasar dictates every fraction and the field never gets close enough to mount a meaningful challenge in the straight. At OR 65 on a surface and trip she has already won at in recent form, the front-runner's chance of simply staying on is real.
Quick QuasarChelioSpirit Of BreezeCaptive Beauty
C
Closers Storm Late
15% probability
If Quick Quasar goes too slow and the field bunches, allowing a late run from the rear to cut through.
A very slow early pace occasionally creates a falsely run race where hold-up horses find daylight late, but in this field those types are forced wide in midfield and lack the true rear-running setup to deliver that burst. Split Elevens and Lerwick, the most genuine closers with strong Standard-going form at the trip, are best positioned to capitalise if chaos breaks out.
Split ElevensLerwickMidnight's DreamFrancisco
D
Pace Collapse, Disruption
9% probability
If Quick Quasar's early fractions are misjudged or the field surges to challenge, causing a messy, non-typical shape.
A breakdown in the expected shape could allow a prominent horse to nick it from a chaotic finish, but this is a low-probability outcome given Watson's record at producing well-judged rides from the front. Spirit Of Breeze's course form and Chelio's place record at the trip make them the safest each-way profiles if something unexpected unfolds.
Spirit Of BreezeChelioOxford CircusCaptive Beauty
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Quick Quasar's pace — if William Cox goes too steadily through the first 3f, the entire field will be racing in a bunch approaching the 2f pole, which could turn the straight into a sprint where her front-running advantage evaporates.
WATCH
Split Elevens is the most proven horse at this exact trip and surface (13 AW runs, 2W, 7P) but needs a genuine pace to close into — watch whether the slow early fractions leave him too far back to reach the principals.
WATCH
Lerwick carries 146lbs top weight and turns around in just 9 days — if the weight takes its toll in the closing stages, the race outcome changes significantly for the prominent horses tracking him.
NOTE
Spirit Of Breeze has existing course and distance form on the All-Weather — watch his early position; if Finley Marsh gets him up into second or third early, he is a live contender to go past a tiring front-runner.
NOTE
Francisco and Midnight's Dream are both mapped to midfield despite being true hold-up horses — if either jockey sends them forward early against their natural style, it could compress the midfield and create traffic problems for the entire chasing pack.
6:58 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Classified Stakes
6f · Standard · DEFAULT · 9 runners
Pure Passion to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
My Mate Mackley led; the map had Pure Passion in front.
My Mate Mackley won at 4.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.
4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Pure Passion
Prominent · 2
Roman SpringPorfin
Midfield · 3
Dr AliMy Mate MackleyGlobal Effort
Hold Up · 3
ZaltallaRidgerReal Gold
Pure Passion is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine rival for the lead, should settle into an uncontested rhythm from the gates on this flat Lingfield AW 6f — a controlled, sustainable gallop rather than a frantically-run race. Porfin and Roman Spring will push for prominent positions behind her, while the bulk of the field — Zaltalla, My Mate Mackley, Real Gold, Dr Ali, and Global Effort — are natural hold-up types competing for the same rear-field berths. This field holds significantly more hold-up horses than can all settle where they want; Dr Ali, My Mate Mackley, and Global Effort are the three most likely to find themselves racing closer than their natural style dictates, with Real Gold and Zaltalla the most likely to secure genuine back-of-the-field positions. A controlled, single-pacemaker race on a flat AW track in Standard conditions historically rewards those who can travel close to the pace and kick off it — prominent racers and closers with tactical speed benefit most, while deep hold-up horses face an uphill task if Pure Passion never truly cranks the tempo up.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pure Passion Dictates Cleanly
62% probability
If Pure Passion settles uncontested in front and controls a steady-to-moderate tempo throughout the 6f.
Pure Passion sets an unhurried pace, denying the field a strong gallop to aim at, and those sitting just behind her in prominent positions get the perfect tow into the straight before she tries to kick clear.
Pure PassionPorfinRoman SpringMy Mate Mackley
B
Prominent Pair Chase Her Down
20% probability
If Porfin and Roman Spring both press Pure Passion aggressively early and the pace lifts enough to stretch the field.
The front trio race in a line, the pace becomes genuine, and Pure Passion's early advantage is neutralised in the final furlong as the prominent horses have the momentum to peg her back.
PorfinRoman SpringMy Mate MackleyReal Gold
C
Closers Deliver Late
11% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough and held long enough that the true hold-up types — Zaltalla or Real Gold — can close from behind.
With a steady-to-moderate gallop this is the less likely shape, but if the redistribution compresses the midfield and Zaltalla or Real Gold find clear runs, they can pick up late ground.
ZaltallaReal GoldDr AliMy Mate Mackley
D
Pace Collapses, Surprise Result
7% probability
If Pure Passion is taken on unexpectedly and either fades badly or the whole field bunches into a sprint finish.
A messy finish with no clear positional advantage; lower-rated horses like Global Effort or Dr Ali could fluke a placing if pace judgement breaks down completely.
Dr AliGlobal EffortRidgerRoman Spring
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Pure Passion's weight (137lbs) and unproven 6f stamina on AW-Standard are the two live risks — if she ties up inside the final furlong, Porfin and Roman Spring are best-placed to capitalise immediately.
WATCH
Roman Spring's 5-day turnaround means watch the paddock and early behaviour; if the horse is flat or reluctant, its prominent position will be surrendered quickly and the scenario B probability collapses.
WATCH
With Dr Ali, My Mate Mackley, and Global Effort all being true hold-up horses forced closer than they'd like, watch for traffic jams at the 2f pole — a bunched midfield increases the risk of interference and scrubbing.
NOTE
Global Effort's 150-day absence is the longest of any runner; first-time-back horses at Lingfield AW over 6f can need the run, and Tyler Heard is an inexperienced conditional — monitor market moves late for any stable confidence signals.
NOTE
Ridger's trainer Ollie Sangster has three runners in the T14 window (3/13), which is active for a yard with a horse showing three poor runs — if there is any market support, treat it as meaningful given the raw form offers little else.
7:28 — Become A Friend Of Racing Welfare Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
1m2f · Standard · NOV · 9 runners
Walking On Stars likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Dove Tale led; the map had Walking On Stars in front.
Dove Tale won at 2.38 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Walking On Stars
Prominent · 1
Blue Hill
Midfield · 4
ProtectrixParaoneNeswickShangri La
Hold Up · 3
Oklahoma DreamDove TaleChampagne Beau
Walking On Stars is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, will settle into an uncontested, measured gallop on this 1m2f Lingfield AW trip — a sustainable pace that plays to her strengths without burning fuel. Blue Hill shapes as the likely second horse behind her, tracking prominently, while the hold-up contingent of Oklahoma Dream, Dove Tale, Shangri La, and Champagne Beau will settle towards the rear. Shangri La is tagged as redistributed — the field holds more natural hold-up types than can realistically fill those positions, and Walking On Stars and Blue Hill are the horses most likely to actually secure the early prominent berths. With the pace likely to be honest but controlled, this race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can control the tempo and outstay rivals in the straight, rather than late closers who will need a strong gallop to reel in the leaders.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Stays On
65% probability
If Walking On Stars dictates an uncontested, measured pace and kicks clear in the straight unchallenged.
Walking On Stars benefits from a solo lead with no pressure, conserving energy before asserting in the final two furlongs on a track and trip that suits her style; Blue Hill, tracking close throughout, is best-placed to pick up any weakness.
Walking On StarsBlue HillDove TaleNeswick
B
Prominent Pair Pull Clear
17% probability
If Blue Hill matches strides with Walking On Stars throughout and the pair distance the hold-up horses in the straight.
The early gallop is shared between two prominent types, setting a rhythm that holds off late challengers who lack the closing burst to reel them in on a Standard surface; Dove Tale, closest of the hold-up horses, may grab a piece of the action.
Blue HillWalking On StarsDove TaleShangri La
C
Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late
12% probability
If the pace is stronger than anticipated and the leaders tie each other up, leaving room for hold-up horses to finish powerfully.
Dove Tale, showing course form at the trip, and Oklahoma Dream, whose headgear suggests a sharper profile, would be best-positioned to close if the front pair overcook it; this scenario requires a pace genuinely honest enough to drain the front runners.
Dove TaleOklahoma DreamShangri LaNeswick
D
Muddling Finish, Held Up Wins
6% probability
If the pace collapses completely in the middle stages and a patient hold-up horse outstays a flat-footed field.
This is the least likely shape given Walking On Stars' natural front-running style and the lack of serious pace pressure, but Dove Tale — who has Gosden form and handles Standard — would be the primary beneficiary; Shangri La, though racing out of her natural role, carries fitness from a recent run 30 days ago.
Dove TaleShangri LaOklahoma DreamChampagne Beau
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Walking On Stars sets the entire pace map — if she breaks cleanly and gets to the front uncontested, everything depends on whether the hold-up horses can run her down in the straight, which on this gallop they likely cannot.
WATCH
Dove Tale is the one hold-up horse with proven Standard AW course form over a similar trip; watch how Havlin positions her in the first three furlongs, as any gap in the field could see her make a bold move.
WATCH
Paraone is a complete unknown on debut — if she shows natural speed and troubles Walking On Stars for the lead, the pace dynamic changes materially and the whole race shape shifts.
NOTE
Champagne Beau's "fades in finish" flag and soft/good-ground form make her a horse to watch for signs of backing off in the straight — her behaviour under pressure could illuminate whether the Standard surface is an issue for others in the field too.
NOTE
Shangri La's redistribution from hold-up to midfield means Callum Shepherd may find himself in an unfamiliar tactical position; watch whether he pushes forward or drops back, as either move will tell you how the stable reads her chance today.
7:58 — Download The At The Races App Nursery Handicap Stakes
5f · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners
Lead contested: South West v Secret RivalHISTORIC
How it ran
Beautiful Effort and Viking Barbie led; the map had South West and Secret Rival in front.
Sultan Darius won at 13.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
South WestSecret Rival
Prominent · 4
Viking BarbieWolf's GallopBeautiful EffortSultan Darius
Midfield · 1
Miss Moneypit
Hold Up · 3
American PsychoStoney WoodFrom Me To You
South West and Secret Rival are both confirmed front-runners and will clash for the lead from the off on this flat Lingfield AW 5f, creating a genuinely contested pace rather than an uncontested canter — the gallop will be honest and possibly sharp from the gates. Wolf's Gallop, Sultan Darius, Viking Barbie, and Beautiful Effort all want to race prominently, meaning there is a dangerous cluster of four horses hunting the same positions two or three furlongs out, creating a high risk of traffic issues mid-race. This field holds more front-running and prominent types than the shape can comfortably accommodate — South West is best placed to actually command the lead given the highest OR and a course-suitable win last time, with Sultan Darius and Wolf's Gallop most likely to secure genuine prominent berths ahead of Viking Barbie and Beautiful Effort who may be shuffled back under pressure. The tactical verdict is clear: a contested but honest pace over 5f on a flat AW track favours runners who can travel smoothly just off the speed and sustain their effort through the final furlong, putting prominent-to-midfield closers with a clean passage — particularly those with proven Standard going form — in the strongest position.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Contested Pace, Prominent Wins
55% probability
If South West and Secret Rival fight for the lead and honest fractions allow a prominent racer travelling smoothly to pounce inside the final furlong.
Wolf's Gallop and Sultan Darius are ideally placed to track the speed and benefit as the two pace-setters potentially tie each other up, hitting the line with residual energy while the leaders fade.
If South West shakes off Secret Rival early and is allowed to bowl along at a controlled tempo, controlling fractions through the straight.
South West has the highest OR in the field, won over 5f on Good last time, and if able to find a comfortable lead could simply prove too strong for rivals chasing from off the pace.
South WestWolf's GallopSultan DariusViking Barbie
C
Closers Sweep Through
16% probability
If the pace battle between South West and Secret Rival burns fiercely enough to open the race up for genuine hold-up horses coming late.
American Psycho is the most credible closer with a second from four on this surface profile and a trainer in Archie Watson who excels with improving juveniles; From Me To You and Stoney Wood have less encouraging profiles but benefit from maximum pace collapse.
American PsychoFrom Me To YouStoney WoodMiss Moneypit
D
Pace Implodes, Chaos
9% probability
If crowding 2-3f out causes interference that reshuffles the entire field and the race turns into a sprint finish from the dip.
In a chaotic finish Viking Barbie's consistent placed form and Daniel Muscutt's positional awareness give it an each-way foothold, while Miss Moneypit — a genuine prominent type who may find clear daylight in a scrappy finish — could outrun her mapped position.
Viking BarbieMiss MoneypitAmerican PsychoSultan Darius
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
South West and Secret Rival are on a direct collision course for the lead — watch for an aggressive early duel that could cause crowding on the inside rail in the first two furlongs, affecting Wolf's Gallop and Sultan Darius who want to be handy.
WATCH
Viking Barbie, Beautiful Effort, and Miss Moneypit are all chasing the same prominent positions in a field with more pace than it can absorb — traffic danger between 3f and 2f out is elevated and any rider unable to find clear daylight will lose their chance abruptly.
WATCH
American Psycho's Standard going record is 0-from-3 with no place, which is a quiet concern for a horse whose scenario depends on the race setting up perfectly for a late run — if the pace is honest rather than brutal, this runner may not get close enough.
NOTE
Stoney Wood is flagged as fading in the finish; watch whether Callum Shepherd tries to drop her out and ride for a more economical run, or whether the trip drop to 5f prompts a more forward approach — either way the fade flag reduces confidence in the final 100 yards.
NOTE
Miss Moneypit won over 5f on Good and is naturally a front-pace horse, but mapped to midfield due to pace congestion — if she gets shuffled wide or loses her footing in traffic early she may never reach her best position, discounting her chance even more than the style-fit tag suggests.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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