2:30 — Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes
2m · Standard · HCAP · 8 runners
Roland Garros to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Circuit Breaker led; the map had Roland Garros in front.
Diamond Bay won at 3.25 — raced midfield, as the map had it.
2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Roland Garros
Prominent · 1
Further Measure
Midfield · 4
BenvoyDiamond BayFlamingo RoseBeaune
Hold Up · 2
Circuit BreakerWise Counsellor
Roland Garros is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 2m amateur handicap on the Lingfield AW, and with no genuine rival for the lead, he should be able to bowl along at a controlled, unhurried pace entirely on his own terms — a significant tactical advantage over 2 miles. Further Measure is the only other runner with genuine prominent leanings and will likely track Roland Garros into second or third early, creating a small, compact lead group with the remainder strung behind. The bulk of the field — Circuit Breaker, Wise Counsellor, Benvoy, Diamond Bay, Flamingo Rose, and Beaune — are all natural hold-up types, though several of them (Benvoy, Diamond Bay, Flamingo Rose, Beaune) have been redistributed into the midfield on the map because there are far more closers here than can realistically all settle at the rear, meaning their actual race positions will be more compressed than ideal and their finish-line kick may be blunted. This race shape strongly favours horses that can race prominently or close to a controlled pace, as the steady tempo set by one uncontested leader creates a genuine advantage for those tracking him rather than waiting in a pack of closers who may all need the same ground late.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Garros Dictates, Prominent Win
62% probability
If Roland Garros leads uncontested at a comfortable gallop and Further Measure tracks him closely throughout.
Roland Garros controls every fraction, the pace is too steady to string out the field, and those sitting handy get first run into the straight; Further Measure's strong course and distance form (sim-going 14/15, 3W4P) makes him the likeliest to pounce at the right moment.
Further MeasureRoland GarrosWise CounsellorCircuit Breaker
B
Closers Reel Them In
20% probability
If the pace quickens mid-race and the compressed midfield generates enough sustained momentum for hold-up types to get competitive.
A genuinely honest gallop over 2m can bring the closers into play in the final quarter-mile, particularly for runners who settle well and quicken late; Circuit Breaker and Wise Counsellor are the truest hold-up types in the field and have the best chance of finishing through if this unfolds.
Circuit BreakerWise CounsellorBeauneDiamond Bay
C
Front Runner Holds On
12% probability
If Roland Garros dictates a very slow tempo, the field comes to him late but he has conserved enough to repel all challengers.
On a flat AW track with no pressure, a horse leading at a crawl can produce a devastating turn of foot from the front; Roland Garros has shown he can stay the trip and has tongue tie helping his breathing, making a front-running victory plausible if rivals leave it too late.
Roland GarrosFurther MeasureBeauneWise Counsellor
D
Redistributed Types Emerge
6% probability
If the field becomes strung out early despite intentions, allowing Benvoy, Diamond Bay or Flamingo Rose to find their natural rhythm and finish best of all.
This depends on those redistributed hold-up runners genuinely getting space to settle and produce their finishing effort, which is a lower-probability outcome given they are racing out of their ideal position in a compressed pack; Benvoy's sole course win at 2m on soft and Flamingo Rose's one win in this trip on good both give slim hope if pace and position conspire in their favour.
BenvoyFlamingo RoseDiamond BayBeaune
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Further Measure's dominance of the sim-going data (3W4P from 14 on Standard) makes him the most empirically grounded runner in the field — watch whether Mrs Charlotte Owen positions him close enough to Roland Garros to secure first run.|
WATCH
Flamingo Rose has not raced in 401 days and is being ridden by a 7lb claimer; if she is ring-rusty or fails to settle in her unnatural midfield position, she could get outpaced on the turn for home and cause interference in a compressed pack.|
WATCH
Roland Garros ran just 6 days ago and while he is fit, watch whether his early stride is as sharp as usual — if he misses the break or is slow into stride, the entire pace dynamic collapses with no other front-runner to fill the role.|
NOTE
The volume of redistributed hold-up types (Benvoy, Diamond Bay, Flamingo Rose, Beaune) bunched in midfield creates a risk of traffic problems in the straight — riders on Circuit Breaker and Wise Counsellor should be watched to see if they can find clear daylight early enough.|
3:00 — Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Band D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)
6f · Standard · CLS4 · 10 runners
Lead contested: Romotoso v Musical ForceHISTORIC
How it ran
Musical Force led, as the map showed.
Musical Force won at 7.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
RomotosoMusical Force
Prominent · 3
Polly The SniperPast PassionIt'sbeenemotional
Midfield · 2
NightspellEnriched
Hold Up · 3
Mystic UnicornLast DandelionPertinent
Romotoso and Musical Force are confirmed front-runners who will dispute the lead from the off over this 6f Lingfield AW contest, creating a genuinely contested early pace rather than a soft, uncontested gallop. With both fillies likely to push for position, the race should be run at an honest clip from the gun, compressing the advantage available to either leader by the time the field straightens. Prominent runners Polly The Sniper, Past Passion, and It'sbeenemotional will look to track the speed and remain competitive without burning too much petrol in the duel ahead of them. The contested pace scenario tilts this race shape in favour of prominent-to-midfield types who can track a genuine gallop and arrive with a late kick — hold-up runners who need significant pace collapse will find conditions marginally less favourable given the likely honest tempo.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Contested Lead, Prominent Pounce
58% probability
If Romotoso and Musical Force fight for the front and set an honest pace, softening each other up by the turn.
The duel up front burns both leaders' reserves, handing the initiative to prominent trackers who can hit the rising Lingfield straight with energy in the tank. Past Passion and Polly The Sniper, sitting just behind the pace with tactical awareness, are ideally placed to sweep through and nail the tiring leaders.
Past PassionPolly The SniperIt'sbeenemotionalRomotoso
B
Front Runner Dictates Clearly
22% probability
If one of the two front-runners establishes a clear lead early and the other capitulates or is restrained.
With a solo leader controlling tempo, the pace becomes honest but not brutal, giving that horse the best chance to control the fractions and hold on. Romotoso, with a solid third on her only start over this exact 6f trip, is the more likely candidate to secure the role and boss the race from the front.
RomotosoMusical ForcePast PassionPolly The Sniper
C
Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late
13% probability
If the pace is fast enough and sustained to string the field out, leaving genuine closers with ground to make up the straight.
Last Dandelion has course-and-distance form on this surface and can close from off the pace if the gallop is truly end-to-end. Enriched, the debutante from Tom Clover's in-form yard, represents the wildcard — lightly raced and unknown, but Cieren Fallon aboard suggests connections expect a forward showing.
Last DandelionEnrichedMystic UnicornNightspell
D
Pace Collapses, Leaders Survive
7% probability
If neither front-runner truly commits to a strong gallop and the field dawdles through the early stages.
A falsely-run race over 6f at Lingfield could compress the finish and reward whoever gets a clear run up the rail, potentially flattering the leaders who find themselves in front with petrol to spare. Mystic Unicorn and Nightspell, both needing something to go wrong ahead of them given their hold-up profiles, would need this slow-burn scenario to deliver — but the presence of two confirmed front-runners makes this the least likely shape.
Musical ForceRomotosoNightspellMystic Unicorn
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Romotoso and Musical Force are both confirmed front-runners — watch whether either capitulates for the lead in the first furlong, as the outcome of that early duel will define the shape of the entire race.
WATCH
Enriched is an unraced debutante from a yard firing at 5/17 over 14 days with Cieren Fallon booked — a strong market move before the off would signal she is well-prepared and could outclass the field on debut.
WATCH
Past Passion steps up from 5f to 6f on AW Standard for the first time — if the extra furlong suits her prominent style, she is capable of finishing considerably closer than her 14-length win-less record on Good ground might suggest.
NOTE
Last Dandelion's course-and-distance form (3rd at Lingfield 6f Standard) gives her a genuine edge over rivals with no AW experience — watch whether Marco Ghiani is able to position closer to the pace than her hold-up profile might suggest given the competitive early tempo.
NOTE
Mystic Unicorn and Pertinent both carry flags for fading in the finish — if either is prominent early and weakens through the final two furlongs, it could create traffic problems for hold-up horses attempting to thread through a tiring pack.
Charles Morin and Summer Evening led; the map had Star Suepreme in front.
Charles Morin won at 5.50 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.
2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Star Suepreme
Prominent · 1
Douglas Dc
Midfield · 5
Charles MorinFoinixFighting PoetChurchill's SpiritSummer Evening
Hold Up · 3
Someone's WishSnooker McCrewPride Eye
Star Suepreme is the sole confirmed front-runner in a field of ten, and on Standard Lingfield AW over 1m4f she is highly likely to dictate from the front without a genuine challenger disputing the lead — Douglas Dc (prominent) is the only horse likely to press forward and sit close enough to apply any pressure, but even he is not a natural pace-setter and will probably settle just off the lead rather than hassle Star Suepreme directly. The result is a single-file, controlled gallop through the early stages with Star Suepreme controlling every fraction, a setup that historically on this flat AW surface rewards the horse who can dictate and then stretch the field in the straight. The field holds more hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear — Charles Morin, Foinix, Fighting Poet, Summer Evening, and Churchill's Spirit are all genuine hold-up horses redistributed into midfield slots, meaning the true back of the field will be more congested than the map shows, and only Pride Eye, Snooker McCrew, and Someone's Wish are most likely to genuinely settle deepest. The tactical verdict is clear: this race shape strongly favours the front-runner Star Suepreme and any prominent tracker who can latch onto her slipstream (Douglas Dc), while the hold-up brigade faces a pacemaker-controlled tempo that may never truly set them alight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Star Suepreme Dictates Unchallenged
58% probability
If Star Suepreme jumps cleanly, establishes the lead by the first furlong, and controls a steady-to-moderate pace without Douglas Dc closing up to apply pressure.
Star Suepreme sets every fraction she chooses, the field strings out behind her, and with no rival forcing her wide or increasing the tempo she conserves enough energy to kick clear in the straight; this scenario is a pure front-runner's paradise on a flat track where energy conservation from the front is maximised.
Star SuepremeDouglas DcFoinixChurchill's Spirit
B
Prominent Tracker Pounces
22% probability
If Douglas Dc tracks Star Suepreme closely throughout and outstays her in the final two furlongs as the leader's lack of experience at this trip tells.
Douglas Dc, the one genuine prominent horse in the field, sits a length or two off the pace and strikes as Star Suepreme ties up; at 1m4f a front-runner making all on this surface is vulnerable to a well-positioned tracker who has been conserving on the bridle.
Douglas DcFoinixChurchill's SpiritCharles Morin
C
Hold-Up Horse Threads Through
13% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough — perhaps because Douglas Dc does push Star Suepreme — to set up a fast final two furlongs that rewards a late run from the hold-up pack.
A stronger gallop compresses the field and burns out the front two, creating a window for a hold-up horse coming from off the pace to pick up ground in the straight; Foinix, whose recent form shows a 1-2-3 sequence and who handles this surface, is best positioned to benefit despite being mapped out of his natural position.
FoinixSomeone's WishCharles MorinPride Eye
D
Muddling Finish, Closers Fail
7% probability
If Star Suepreme sets a falsely slow pace that concertinas the field, with hold-up types never getting a clear run late and the race degenerating into a scrappy sprint finish.
The compressed field causes traffic problems for horses attempting to come from off the pace, and the winner is the horse closest to the fractions throughout rather than the most talented finisher; hold-up horses tagged as redistributed are particularly vulnerable here as they cannot truly dominate from the position they occupy.
Star SuepremeDouglas DcPride EyeSnooker McCrew
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Star Suepreme — if she misses the break or is headed early, the entire race dynamic collapses, as she is the only confirmed pace-setter in a 10-runner field.
WATCH
Douglas Dc — watch whether Marco Ghiani elects to press Star Suepreme or sits patient; if Ghiani pushes forward and applies pressure, the pace becomes genuinely contested and hold-up chances improve materially.
WATCH
Foinix — with blinkers and five hold-up types competing for the same ground at the rear, watch the early running order closely; if he fails to find a clear passage in the straight he cannot demonstrate his recent improvement.
NOTE
Pride Eye — carries a stamina/fade flag and steps up sharply in trip on AW for the first time; if she starts travelling strongly at halfway it is a significant form reversal signal worth noting.
NOTE
Someone's Wish — 71 days off the track and stepping down substantially in trip from habitual 16-17f targets; if he moves freely early it suggests the layoff has not dulled his condition and he could outrun his modest profile.
4:08 — Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes
1m · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners
Henfield likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
My Old Mate led; the map had Henfield in front.
Perfect Ruler won at 3.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.
1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Henfield
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 4
My Old MateGrey SandsTen CuidadoErnie McCrew
Hold Up · 2
VenturingPerfect Ruler
Henfield is the sole confirmed front-runner in this seven-runner field and, with no rival likely to challenge for the lead aggressively, he should bowl along at a controlled, sustainable gallop from the outset on Lingfield's flat Polytrack mile. That uncontested pace sets up a race in which the lead is never truly pressured, making it difficult for hold-up horses to generate the sustained tempo-change they need to reel the leader in. Several runners — My Old Mate, Grey Sands, Ten Cuidado, and Ernie McCrew — are genuine hold-up types who have been mapped to midfield simply because there are too many rear-ward horses for the map to accommodate them all; in reality, most will race closer to last and will need a significant injection of pace to close. The shape firmly favours horses who can sit just off Henfield's shoulder in the prominent-to-midfield bracket and pick him up in the final two furlongs, rather than those coming from deep who rely on a truly run race to deliver their finishing kick.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Henfield Controls, Stays On
65% probability
If Henfield dictates a modest, uncontested gallop and his rivals leave him alone through the first six furlongs.
Henfield sets a comfortable tempo from his low draw, conserving energy through the middle portion before kicking again inside the final furlong; horses sitting closest behind him — ideally those with prominent or early-prominent profiles — get the best possible tow into the straight. With no genuine pace pressure the race becomes a test of stamina and tactical awareness, suiting those who travel smoothly rather than those who need the race run fast.
HenfieldMy Old MateGrey SandsVenturing
B
Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late
16% probability
If Henfield's gallop is just fast enough to string the field out and one genuine hold-up runner produces a sustained late run.
A fast enough pace on Standard ground leaves Henfield vulnerable in the final furlong and a horse who has settled well off the pace — most likely My Old Mate, whose recent wins at this trip stand out — collects with a sustained run from two furlongs out. The obstacle is that most true hold-up types here are racing out of their natural position and must sustain their challenge much earlier than ideal, making this scenario harder to deliver.
My Old MateGrey SandsVenturingPerfect Ruler
C
Prominent Pair Fight It Out
12% probability
If a second runner challenges Henfield for the lead early, lifting the gallop and turning this into a genuine test of stamina.
Should My Old Mate or another prominent-moving type decide to go with Henfield sooner than expected, the pace quickens and the race becomes more truly run, leaving the leader vulnerable but also stretching the hold-up horses who have to cover more ground.
My Old MateGrey SandsPerfect RulerVenturing
D
Closers Fail, Front Wins Easily
7% probability
If the hold-up horses are simply too far back and the pace is too sedate for any late run to materialise in the straight.
Henfield pings clear in the straight completely unchallenged, having enjoyed a perfect solo lead throughout, while the genuine closers find themselves finishing into empty places having never been able to build momentum from the rear. This extreme version of Scenario A is limited only by Henfield's own modest OR of 51 and the fade flag attached to him.
HenfieldVenturingMy Old MatePerfect Ruler
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Henfield's ability to secure an unchallenged lead is the single most important factor — watch the first furlong closely to confirm no other runner presses him, as an uncontested gallop dramatically boosts his chance of lasting home.
WATCH
My Old Mate carries top weight of 140lbs and has only one run on Standard AW ground (finished ninth) — if the surface proves slower-feeling than his Good-ground wins, his ability to produce the same late burst is in serious doubt.
WATCH
Grey Sands and Ten Cuidado are both genuine hold-up horses placed artificially into midfield on the map; if they are forced to sit last as expected, watch whether the pace in the straight is sufficient for either to close meaningfully over a mile.
NOTE
Henfield is flagged as a fader — if his gallop softens markedly from the two-furlong pole, the horse travelling most smoothly in second or third at that point becomes the primary beneficiary regardless of nominal running style.
NOTE
Three of the seven runners are partnered by apprentice or conditional jockeys (Alfie Redman 7lb, Finley Marsh, Millie Wonnacott 5lb, Jude Fernandes 7lb) — tactical errors in a slowly-run race could compress or extend margins unpredictably in the straight.
Turpin is the sole identifiable pace-setter here, redistributed from a natural hold-up role to the front because no confirmed front runner exists in the field — he will set a controlled, unhurried gallop on Standard Lingfield AW over 7f, unlikely to be strongly pressed for the lead. With just one horse doing the donkey work at a sustainable tempo, the pace figures to be honest rather than searching, creating a race that sets up best for horses able to track the pace in the prominent-to-midfield berths and quicken off a steady gallop in the straight. The field is saturated with genuine hold-up types — Raqraaq, Maury, Edergole's Gift, Hold The Press, Miraflores, Coiled and Dora Vita are all natural backmarkers who will be mapping further forward than their instincts want — and only the most tractable of those will secure a useful position. The tactical verdict is clear: horses with the ability to sit just off Turpin's shoulder in the first three or four, rather than those committed to finishing runs from the rear, are best placed in this pace shape.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Steady Lead, Tracking Wins
52% probability
If Turpin sets an uncontested, controlled pace and those able to sit second or third on the rail quicken past him in the straight.
Turpin's lone-lead at a measured gallop compresses the field and removes any premium on finishing pace, meaning horses settled just behind him avoid traffic and hit the line fresh; this shape heavily rewards Victory Sound and Zaltalla, both of whom have the tactical versatility to sit close to the pace and have placed form on this surface.
Victory SoundZaltallaShe's CraftyMademoiselle Belle
B
Hold-Up Types Thread Late
22% probability
If Turpin's tempo is genuinely slow enough to create a bunch finish where late closers find gaps in a compressed straight.
A slow early pace paradoxically creates chaos in the home straight as twelve runners converge simultaneously, and any hold-up horse that avoids traffic at the 2f pole can deliver a strong late run; Zaltalla and She's Crafty, both capable of finishing powerfully on Standard going, are most likely to thread through.
ZaltallaShe's CraftyRaqraaqEdergole's Gift
C
Front Runner Steals It
16% probability
If Turpin, finding himself completely uncontested and relaxed, dictates at a pace that demoralises the field and kicks clear turning for home.
An unchallenged Turpin could simply convert his natural hold-up stamina into a staying effort by conserving energy from the front — his connections have placed him to exploit this scenario and the visored headgear suggests they need something different; the risk is his redistribution from true hold-up means this is an unfamiliar role.
TurpinVictory SoundZaltalla
D
Pace Collapse, Stragglers Pile In
10% probability
If several redistributed horses attempt to push forward simultaneously, creating a messy early scramble and a fast early pace that collapses late.
A chaotic pace scenario would see the field string out and favour the freshest-legged hold-up types arriving late, but most of the genuine backmarkers in this race have poor recent form figures and sim-going records that do not inspire confidence; Raqraaq, with 1W4P on similar going, and Maury, a recent course winner on Standard, are the most credible beneficiaries.
RaqraaqMauryMirafloresEdergole's Gift
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Maury is the only runner with a recent win over course, distance and going (1/7f/STA 42 days ago) — watch whether Georgia Dobie can manoeuvre from a congested midfield to replicate that effort in the straight.
KEY
Zaltalla arrives on consecutive placed finishes (3-2-3) and just 5 days' rest — monitor whether the quick turnaround dulls his finishing effort, as Tom Queally's positioning in the first half-mile will be critical to his chance.
WATCH
Turpin carries the whole burden of pace as a horse redistributed from a hold-up role — if he backs off the gallop or is reeled in before the 2f pole, the race shape collapses and the front end becomes chaotic for all prominent trackers.
WATCH
Hold The Press returns from 187 days off for a trainer with minimal recent runners — a well-beaten return is the likely script, but any unexpected freshness burst from stall position could disrupt the anticipated race shape in the early stages.
NOTE
The field contains at least seven natural hold-up horses all competing for midfield real estate — watch the opening two furlongs for bumping or traffic issues that could compromise multiple runners simultaneously before the race settles.
Crown The Future is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 11-runner 7f AW contest at Lingfield and, with no genuine rival likely to press her hard from the gates, she should be able to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop through the first half of the race. The remainder of the field is composed almost entirely of hold-up types — Megaphone, No News, Regal Guest, Rovinia, Vitalline, Chloe's Courage, Dupont Circle, Power Cut, Ruiz, and Horus — the vast majority of whom have been redistributed on the pace map because there are simply too many closers for the rear to accommodate them all; in reality, several including Chloe's Courage, Dupont Circle, and Regal Guest are most likely to push closer than their natural style and will sit in a dense mid-pack group. With Crown The Future able to control tempo without being pressured, she sets an honest but not punishing fractions-scenario — a steady-to-moderate early gallop that does not guarantee the closer-heavy field will get a strong enough pace to close off. This race shape most clearly favours a horse that can race prominently or pick up from just off the leader in the straight, as the controlled pace is unlikely to set up a fast-finishing sprint for true hold-up runners who need a truly run race.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Crown The Future Controls
58% probability
If Crown The Future dictates an uncontested, measured gallop and the hold-up pack fails to reel her in down the straight.
Crown The Future sets a sustainable pace from flag to flag, and with no rival willing or able to press her, the tempo stays honest-but-not-searching, making it very hard for closers to close the gap in the final two furlongs.
Crown The FutureChloe's CourageVitallineRovinia
B
Steady Pace, Late Surge
20% probability
If Crown The Future's controlled gallop is just fast enough to string the field out but a strong finisher tracks into a gap from mid-pack.
A moderate tempo compresses the mid-pack but one of the redistributed hold-up types who secures a better-than-expected tracking position picks up sharply once daylight appears in the straight.
RoviniaVitallineChloe's CourageNo News
C
Pace Collapses, Finisher Pounces
13% probability
If Crown The Future sets an overly modest gallop and a genuine hold-up runner produces a strong sustained late run from the rear.
The slow early pace ironically opens the race up for any runner who can produce a powerful finish over the final furlong, bypassing a strung-out and tiring mid-pack.
MegaphoneRoviniaNo NewsVitalline
D
Surprise Challenger Emerges
9% probability
If a redistributed mid-pack runner who secures a prominent early position produces a front-running or prominent-style win against the pace map.
A horse such as Regal Guest or Dupont Circle, forced closer to the pace than typical, finds itself in an unexpectedly advantageous position and sustains that effort to the line.
Regal GuestDupont CircleHorusPower Cut
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Crown The Future — if she gets an uncontested lead through the first two furlongs, watch whether Myla Coppins (5lb claimer) allows the gallop to drop to a crawl, which would dramatically improve her winning chance and devastate late runners.
WATCH
Rovinia — consistent placed runner who has finished second four times recently; watch whether Marco Ghiani can get her into a tracking position rather than being trapped in the hold-up pack, as her style fit here is better than her redistribution implies.
WATCH
Vitalline — the best sim-going strike rate in the field but needs a strong pace; if Crown The Future goes slowly, Josephine Gordon will need to make an early decision about whether to commit and close — watch her position at the 3f mark.
NOTE
Chloe's Courage — hood-wearing 4yo with four places from five starts is the form standout among the closers; watch whether Darragh Keenan can secure a closer position than her natural style, which the pace map suggests she may be forced into anyway.
NOTE
Dupont Circle — returning from 57 days off is the biggest freshness flag in the race; watch her early movement in the paddock and whether she travels smoothly into the race, as a hold-up type this fresh on a Standard AW surface is an unknown quantity.
5:52 — Download The At The Races App Handicap Stakes (Div I)
6f · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners
Dashing Donkey to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Balon d'Or led; the map had Dashing Donkey in front.
Balon d'Or won at 4.50 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.
2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Dashing Donkey
Prominent · 3
AlashosHappierPorfin
Midfield · 3
Big BardBalon d'OrDue Date
Hold Up · 3
Express TrainDiamond DreamerPeregrine Falcon
Dashing Donkey is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 10-runner 6f AW handicap at Lingfield and, with no natural rival to force the tempo, Jack Mitchell can dictate a controlled, uncontested lead at a pace entirely of his choosing. Behind him, Alashos, Porfin, and Happier will push forward to claim prominent positions, creating a compact, organised early order rather than a contested sprint for the lead. The hold-up brigade — Diamond Dreamer, Express Train, Peregrine Falcon, and the redistributed Big Bard, Balon d'Or, and Due Date — will be operating from further back than ideal on a track where a solo leader setting a moderate gallop can prove very hard to reel in over 6f. This shape strongly favours front-to-prominent runners who can track the pace on a short rein and pounce early in the straight; true closers face a stern test when no genuine pressure softens up the leader. The field holds more hold-up types than can realistically settle at the rear cleanly — Big Bard, Balon d'Or, and Due Date are genuine closers redistributed into a midfield mapping, and of those three, Due Date (visor, course experience) and Big Bard (proven winner here) are likeliest to actually find a decent position mid-division, but none will get their true preferred ground.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Dashing Donkey Leads Wire-to-Wire
58% probability
If Dashing Donkey is allowed a soft lead and the pace stays controlled throughout the 6f.
Mitchell settles Dashing Donkey in a rhythm unchallenged, the gallop is moderate enough to preserve his stamina, and the hold-up horses simply have too much ground to make up in the final 2f on this track. Prominent horses Alashos and Happier are best placed to chase him home but lack the firepower to close a controlled leader down.
Dashing DonkeyAlashosHappierPorfin
B
Prominent Pair Reel Him In
22% probability
If Alashos or Happier press Dashing Donkey from the off and force the pace fractionally higher, weakening him in the final furlong.
A marginally quicker early tempo drains Dashing Donkey's reserves and leaves him exposed inside the final furlong, allowing a prominent tracker to sweep past. Alashos has a Lingfield win on the board and Happier arrives on the back of back-to-back wins with in-form handler Martin Keighley, making either a credible beneficiary of this shape.
AlashosHappierPorfinDashing Donkey
C
Midfield Closers Pounce Late
13% probability
If the pace is strong enough to string the field out and the redistributed hold-up types find a clear run from mid-division.
Big Bard is a proven winner over C&D in standard going and, if he can travel smoothly in midfield — his redistributed position — he retains a finishing threat over the final 2f. Diamond Dreamer and Express Train are genuine hold-ups who need the pace to collapse and a gap to appear, both of which are less certain given the solo, self-regulating leader.
Big BardDiamond DreamerExpress TrainPeregrine Falcon
D
Race Falls Apart Chaotically
7% probability
If a contested, fast pace develops due to Porfin or Happier aggressively disputing Dashing Donkey's lead and the whole field races beyond their comfort zone.
A ragged, hot gallop scrambles the race shape and opens the door for the genuine hold-up horses operating from the back — Peregrine Falcon and Due Date both show course-relevant standard-going form and could pick up pieces late. This scenario is the least likely given the moderate pace expected, but Due Date's visor and front-foot history means he could push harder than anticipated if freshened up after 45 days off.
Peregrine FalconDue DateBalon d'OrBig Bard
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Dashing Donkey sets the race pace in isolation — watch whether Jack Mitchell elects to bowl along or dawdle, as the tempo he sets in the first 2f will define whether hold-up horses have any chance of landing a blow.
WATCH
Happier steps up from 5f to 6f off a back-to-back winning streak — if the extra furlong suits, his prominent style and Keighley's yard form make him a major pace-shape beneficiary, but failure to stay could see him drop away sharply inside the final furlong.
WATCH
Big Bard returns after 69 days off for a yard in good recent form (4/19 in 14 days); fitness is the unknown after over two months away and, combined with his cramped midfield position relative to his true running style, he is a horse to watch for signs of rustiness early.
NOTE
Alashos is 57 days fresh and carries a hood (p), but the C&D win on standard going is directly applicable — watch to see if Charles Bishop sits just off Dashing Donkey and whether the horse travels with his usual early fluency after the absence.
NOTE
The trio of redistributed closers (Big Bard, Balon d'Or, Due Date) will all be hunting the same mid-division ground — crowding and traffic trouble around the home turn is a genuine risk if they converge on the same space with limited racing room on the Lingfield AW straight.
6:22 — Download The At The Races App Handicap Stakes (Div II)
6f · Standard · HCAP · 9 runners
Von Krolock likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Chasing Gold led; the map had Von Krolock in front.
Von Krolock won at 7.00. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Von Krolock
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 5
Walking On CloudsMy Mate KevCourt Of SessionUnicoHenry Tudor
Hold Up · 3
WoolridgeTwilight MadnessChasing Gold
Von Krolock is the sole confirmed front-runner in this nine-runner field and, with no genuine rival likely to contest the lead, he can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop over Lingfield's straight six furlongs. Without pressure from flagfall, he will likely set a measured pace that compresses the field and gives himself every chance to score from the front at a track where he has strong course form. The field nominally contains several hold-up types — Walking On Clouds, My Mate Kev, Court Of Session, Unico, Henry Tudor and others — but because there are more true closers than the map can accommodate at the rear, several will be forced to race in a midfield position that is not their natural ground. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and those able to travel just off a lone, uncontested front-runner, as there is little likelihood of the strong late pace that true hold-up horses depend upon to make up ground.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Von Krolock Controls Unchallenged
58% probability
If Von Krolock bowls clear from the gates and no rival has the gate speed or inclination to press him, he dictates every yard at a sustainable clip.
Von Krolock has the course, distance and standard-going form to exploit a solo lead, and at OR 56 he receives a handy weight advantage over several rivals; Christian Howarth's recent 9/40 trainer record is a positive flag.
Von KrolockWoolridgeChasing GoldWalking On Clouds
B
Prominent Pair Fight It Out
22% probability
If a second runner — most likely Chasing Gold or Woolridge — travels prominently and exerts enough pressure on Von Krolock to force a true-run contest through the final two furlongs.
A genuinely run race over this Lingfield six furlongs typically plays to the horse with the superior finishing kick from a handy position, with Chasing Gold's recent course-going and age-profile making him well-suited.
Chasing GoldWoolridgeVon KrolockWalking On Clouds
C
Late Closer Swoops Through
13% probability
If the early pace turns out faster than expected and the hold-up types — particularly Walking On Clouds or Twilight Madness — find themselves closer than usual and able to deliver a genuine sustained challenge.
Walking On Clouds has three wins on Standard going over six furlongs and arrives on the back of a win 42 days ago, and Twilight Madness's sim-going record of 14/15 shows she handles this surface consistently.
Walking On CloudsTwilight MadnessCourt Of SessionMy Mate Kev
D
Field Bunches, Midfielders Profit
7% probability
If pace collapses or the field concertinas early and several midfield-mapped horses find racing room through the centre of the track in the final furlong.
This outcome requires multiple redistribution errors to resolve in the closers' favour simultaneously, making it a low-probability shape; Court Of Session's one win on Good going and Henry Tudor's modest recent form limit their credentials even in this scenario.
Court Of SessionHenry TudorUnicoMy Mate Kev
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Von Krolock's ability to control the tempo unchallenged is the single biggest factor in this race — watch whether any rival shows gate speed to press him in the first furlong, which would fundamentally alter the shape.
WATCH
Walking On Clouds and Twilight Madness are the two hold-up horses with the strongest Standard-going records but both will be forced to race closer than ideal; watch whether they find a clear passage through the final two furlongs or get trapped in traffic.
WATCH
Woolridge and Chasing Gold are the most likely candidates to emerge from midfield and apply pressure on Von Krolock from the two-furlong pole — if either travels prominently the race becomes genuinely competitive.
NOTE
Trainer Chris Dwyer (My Mate Kev) at 0/5 and Phil McEntee (Court Of Session) at 0/7 in the past 14 days are both running in a recent cold spell — both horses also face a style mismatch, compounding the negative read.
NOTE
The going report confirms Standard conditions throughout the card, giving no ground-related excuse for any runner — all Standard-going form figures should be taken at face value with no downgrade for surface concerns.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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