2:22 — Follow @attheraces On X Nursery Handicap Stakes
1m · Standard · HCAP · 11 runners
No More Pino likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
No More Pino led, as the map showed.
Prince Kameo won at 5.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
No More Pino
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 7
Bollengo BoyWhiskey GaloreMagical LifeKiss CamGobletHailstones In MayAllaboutthelunch
Hold Up · 3
Prince KameoTen Of ClubsHamdani Mokhater
No More Pino is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 11-runner nursery handicap over Lingfield's polytrack mile, and with no genuine pace rival to challenge him, Sean Levey can dictate a controlled, sustainable tempo from the outset. The remainder of the field is overwhelmingly composed of hold-up types — Bollengo Boy, Whiskey Galore, Magical Life, Kiss Cam, Goblet, Allaboutthelunch, Hailstones In May, Prince Kameo, Ten Of Clubs and Hamdani Mokhater all want to race off the pace — meaning the bulk of the field will be chasing one leader rather than forcing him into a genuine test. This field holds far more hold-up horses than the map can honestly place at the rear; of those with any chance of actually tracking closer to the pace, Prince Kameo (Sir Mark Prescott, patient buildup) and Ten Of Clubs (shown early pace in AW form) are the most likely to occupy a prominent berth in the slipstream by default. The race shape strongly favours No More Pino and any horse able to sit just off him in second or third, as a single-pace gallop over a mile on Standard Polytrack will rarely be run fast enough to reel in a relaxed front-runner who controls his own fractions.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lone Leader Dictates
62% probability
If No More Pino bowls along uncontested and sets a fair but controlled tempo, turning for home with a decisive lead.
No More Pino can graduate to a mile having run over shorter, and with no rival willing or able to push him, Levey can produce him fresh and balanced into the straight; horses who settle just behind him in second or third — absorbing his fractions rather than chasing from deep — are best placed to pounce if he tires.
No More PinoPrince KameoTen Of ClubsMagical Life
B
Prominent Pair Dominate
18% probability
If Ten Of Clubs or Prince Kameo secure prominent positions immediately behind No More Pino and the leader ties up in the final furlong.
A modest leader who has been lightly raced at the mile trip could flatten out approaching the Lingfield straight, handing the advantage to a horse who has sat in second or third throughout and needs only a length or two to pounce; both Ten Of Clubs and Prince Kameo have the AW mile form to capitalise.
Prince KameoTen Of ClubsNo More PinoMagical Life
C
Hold-Up Horse Swoops
13% probability
If No More Pino sets an uncharacteristically strong early pace or ties up markedly turning in, opening the door for a well-timed late run.
Magical Life is the most credible hold-up racer in the field, having won over this course and distance at Standard and finishing placed at Lingfield previously, giving Ghiani a genuine pattern to follow; Hamdani Mokhater also arrives in form and could benefit if ground is given late, though most redistributed hold-up types will struggle to bridge the gap from deep.
Magical LifeHamdani MokhaterPrince KameoBollengo Boy
D
Pace Collapse, Field Bunches
7% probability
If No More Pino sets a crawl that compresses the field and produces a sprint finish from the two-furlong pole.
A muddling gallop would theoretically suit closers, but the majority of this field's hold-up runners carry significant form concerns — multiple fade flags, poor AW sim-going records, and redistributed positioning — meaning even a truly end-to-end sprint may not deliver a clean result from the back; Bollengo Boy and Whiskey Galore, natural hold-up horses who find themselves mapped into midfield, would need this shape most but are least likely to translate it into victory given their current form.
Bollengo BoyWhiskey GaloreKiss CamGoblet
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
No More Pino's early sectionals are critical — if Levey allows him to drift into a very slow pace, the bunched field becomes a lottery and his lead evaporates; watch whether he is actively managed or allowed to coast.
WATCH
Prince Kameo and Ten Of Clubs are both likely to push forward from their draw to occupy the positions immediately behind the leader — if both do so aggressively, a minor pace battle could develop in the first two furlongs despite the apparent lack of front-runners.
WATCH
Magical Life is the hold-up horse with the most legitimate AW form claim; if Ghiani finds an unimpeded route along the inner turning for home, he is the likeliest beneficiary of any late collapse from the front.
NOTE
The fade flags on Whiskey Galore, Goblet, Allaboutthelunch, Hailstones In May and Ten Of Clubs collectively suggest the field's stamina is fragile — if the pace is genuinely strong, attrition in the final two furlongs could be significant.
NOTE
Trainer Richard Hughes has two runners (Kiss Cam and Hailstones In May) in the field — neither has convincing form but watch for any market move on either, which could indicate stable confidence in one runner over the other.
2:52 — Celebrate National Racehorse Week Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)
1m · Standard · CLS3 · 5 runners
Lead contested: Boomshakalak v KiahHISTORIC
How it ran
Please Don't Go led; the map had Boomshakalak and Kiah in front.
Thuritha won at 5.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
BoomshakalakKiah
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 1
Scrappetalene
Hold Up · 2
ThurithaPlease Don't Go
Kiah and Boomshakalak are both confirmed front-runners and will contest the early lead from the outset over this Lingfield AW mile, creating a genuinely competitive gallop from the first furlong rather than a dawdle. With two horses pressing each other through the early stages, the pace is likely to be honest rather than manufactured, stretching the field and ensuring the race is run at a true tempo. The hold-up runners Please Don't Go and Thuritha will settle in behind the pace, while Scrappetalene's style is uncertain but she is likely to find a mid-division berth. This race shape — two pace-setters burning off each other — classically favours horses who can travel in behind a genuine gallop and produce a sustained late run, making the hold-up and midfield profiles the primary beneficiaries once the front two stop racing each other.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front Two Fight, Closers Pounce
63% probability
If Kiah and Boomshakalak press each other through the first half of the race at an honest clip, leaving them vulnerable in the final two furlongs.
The contested pace sets up a truly-run mile that will expose any weaknesses in the leaders, bringing the hold-up horses into play with a clear run from the home turn.
Please Don't GoThurithaScrappetaleneKiah
B
Pace Softens, Leader Steals
17% probability
If Boomshakalak settles and Kiah concedes position early, allowing one front-runner to control a steadier gallop.
A single leader controlling an uncontested moderate pace can conserve energy and prove surprisingly hard to reel in around Lingfield's tight final bend.
KiahBoomshakalakScrappetalenePlease Don't Go
C
Midfield Pick-Up Wins
12% probability
If Scrappetalene travels smoothly in mid-division and produces an untapped burst from a horse still well short of full exposure.
Lightly raced and with only one outing, Scrappetalene carries genuine improvement potential, and a truly-run pace that spreads the field could allow a clean run from the inside.
ScrappetalenePlease Don't GoThurithaKiah
D
Hold-Up Horse Fails To Quicken
8% probability
If the pace collapses into a falsely-run race and the hold-up horses are left with too much ground to make up in a sprint finish.
A muddling gallop suits those who can sit handy and kick, making it hard for the back-markers to land a telling blow over this Lingfield mile.
KiahBoomshakalakScrappetaleneThuritha
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch whether Kiah or Boomshakalak clears the other in the first two furlongs — if neither gives way, both could be weakened by halfway and gift the race to the hold-up runners.
WATCH
Please Don't Go holds the strongest trainer-jockey combination on form (Hughes/Fallon, 4/28 strike rate) and could be the primary beneficiary if the pace scenario unfolds as expected — watch her positioning off the final bend.
WATCH
Scrappetalene's unknown style and lightly raced profile (just one run) means she could travel anywhere in the field; jockey choice and early positioning will be highly informative when the stalls open.
NOTE
Boomshakalak returns from a 50-day break having run just once — monitor her market movement late on, as any fitness doubt could see her connections reluctant to force the pace aggressively, which would fundamentally alter the race shape.
NOTE
All five fillies carry 128lbs on Standard AW going — no weight or surface differential to separate them, so early pace configuration and how each horse handles the Lingfield left-hand bend into the straight will be the key race-reading factor.
3:22 — Download The At The Races App Novice Stakes (gbb Race)
1m · Standard · NOV · 7 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:52 — Free Tips On Attheraces.com Handicap Stakes
5f · Standard · HCAP · 6 runners
Lead contested: Desert Treasure v General AssemblyHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 2
Desert TreasureGeneral Assembly
Prominent · 2
Mick's SpiritLazzar
Midfield · 1
Style King
Hold Up · 1
Isle Of Lismore
General Assembly and Desert Treasure are both confirmed front-runners and will contest the lead from the outset over this minimum 5f trip on Lingfield's Polytrack, creating a genuinely contested early gallop rather than a procession. That friction between two pace-setters is unlikely to produce a truly suicidal tempo on Standard going, but it will be honest and unrelenting enough to test those who cannot sustain effort through the final furlong. This race shape favours horses who can track just off a contested pace and pounce in the final 100 yards — prominent-to-midfield types who are not burning early reserves will be best placed. This field contains more pace and prominent types than can all secure their preferred position: Desert Treasure and General Assembly are most likely to actually lead, with Style King the runner most displaced from its natural prominent berth.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Contested Lead Grinds Out
62% probability
If Desert Treasure and General Assembly battle for supremacy and the pace holds true to the line, rewarding the horse that settles most economically just off the duel.
The two front-runners press each other through the early stages, burning enough energy to leave the door ajar for a well-positioned tracker in the final furlong; horses racing with cover and relaxation through the first half of the race will arrive with most in reserve.
Desert TreasureMick's SpiritLazzarStyle King
B
Prominent Tracker Swoops
20% probability
If one of the front-runners edges clear early and sets a controlled solo lead, allowing a prominent horse to stalk and pounce close home.
The pace resolves into a single leader with a clean gallop rather than a contested duel, suiting a horse who can sit a length or two off the pace and accelerate when the leader flattens out; the Standard surface at Lingfield rewards the well-held prominent runner on a sound surface.
Mick's SpiritLazzarStyle KingGeneral Assembly
C
Pace Collapses, Closer Lands
11% probability
If the early duel proves severe enough to drain both front-runners through the final furlong, gifting a late finisher a clear winning run.
Isle Of Lismore, racing from off the pace, would be the primary beneficiary if the leaders genuinely tie up inside the final 100 yards; however, this outcome is contingent on a sharper-than-expected contest up front and Isle Of Lismore's poor recent Standard-going profile (0 wins or places from 1 relevant run) limits confidence.
Isle Of LismoreStyle KingMick's SpiritLazzar
D
Front-Runner Dominates Alone
7% probability
If one of the two front-runners breaks sharply and establishes a clear, uncontested lead early, allowing them to control the pace and outstay rivals.
Desert Treasure's two wins at this trip came when allowed to dictate unchallenged, and if General Assembly misses the break or concedes the early lead, the Haggas runner could coast to a straightforward win; the high weight (136lbs) and recent poor form (077) temper confidence in this outcome.
Desert Treasure and General Assembly will dispute the lead from the stalls — watch the first two furlongs closely to see whether one immediately concedes, as that determines whether the tempo is contested or controlled and reshapes every scenario.|
WATCH
Style King is most vulnerable to being crowded out of his prominent position at the start given the number of pace-forward types; if he is pushed back behind the speed, his effective STYLE_FIT disadvantage becomes a live handicap on his chances.|
WATCH
Isle Of Lismore has run once on Standard going without placing — watch whether the visor sharpens his early concentration and whether he gets a clear run from off the pace, as both conditions must be met for him to get competitive.|
NOTE
Mick's Spirit's 52-day absence and trainer's 0/3 form over 14 days are worth tracking at the off; if he appears on his toes and travels well in the first furlong, the layoff concern diminishes quickly given his strong profile on this surface.|
NOTE
General Assembly's two recent placed efforts on this exact surface and trip suggest he handles conditions well, but watch whether he is driven hard early in the duel with Desert Treasure — if he is visibly under pressure before halfway, his chance of staying on for a place evaporates.|
4:22 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Classified Stakes
1m2f · Standard · DEFAULT · 14 runners
Freedom Bay likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Freedom Bay
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 9
KevTaskheerKaaressRogers DreamMaryland StarLady AiyanaIftikhaarSunset In ParisSenseofentitlement
Hold Up · 4
Ernie McCrewSharma d'AmourVersatilePride Eye
Freedom Bay is the lone confirmed pace-setter, redistributed to the front from a prominent profile, and with no genuine natural front-runner in opposition she will dictate from the off at a rhythm entirely of her own choosing on Standard Lingfield AW over 1m2f. The remainder of the 14-runner field is overwhelmingly populated by hold-up types — Lady Aiyana, Rogers Dream, Senseofentitlement, Sunset In Paris, Taskheer, Maryland Star, Iftikhaar, Kaaress, and Kev are all true hold-up horses pushed into midfield positions on the map because there is simply insufficient room at the rear for all of them. Kaaress and Taskheer are the most likely of that group to push forward and contest a prominent berth, given their headgear (visor) and AW-specific form, but neither is a natural front-runner. The field holds far more hold-up types than can realistically obtain their preferred position, meaning many will race further forward than ideal and the tactical picture will be compressed in midfield. With Freedom Bay able to control fractions unopposed and the closers unable to all secure their natural ground, this race shape clearly favours the horse capable of tracking the pace from a handy position and sustaining a run — a prominent-to-midfield profile travelling within the contest is at a structural advantage over pure hold-up horses.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Freedom Bay Controls Cleanly
52% probability
If Freedom Bay dictates an uncontested, measured gallop and the hold-up pack cannot generate momentum from deep
Freedom Bay sets a sustainable pace from the front and, crucially, no rival has the tactical speed or position to reel her in entering the straight; horses tracking her closely from second or third will be best placed as the compressed midfield struggles to produce a sustained late challenge from too far back.
Freedom BayTaskheerKaaressErnie McCrew
B
Prominent Tracker Pounces
26% probability
If a horse sits second or third behind Freedom Bay throughout and produces a decisive move two furlongs out
With the pace honest but not excessive, a horse camped just behind the leader will have cover, save ground and pounce when Freedom Bay ties up late; Taskheer and Kaaress, the two redistributed hold-up types most likely to push forward, are the natural beneficiaries of this shape.
TaskheerKaaressErnie McCrewSharma d'Amour
C
Midfield Late Burst
14% probability
If the pace collapses in the final quarter-mile and the compressed midfield produces one sustained finish
Should Freedom Bay fade sharply and the race open up inside the final furlong, a horse with a clean passage through a crowded pack could emerge; however this scenario is structurally compromised because the true hold-up horses are racing out of role and will not find the deep-track position their style requires.
Ernie McCrewPride EyeIftikhaarSharma d'Amour
D
Front Runner Outstays All
8% probability
If Freedom Bay quickens into the straight and simply does not come back to the field
On Standard AW at Lingfield over 1m2f the front runner can get away from the field if the pace is well-judged and no rival has the tactical sharpness to go with her; with the field so backwardly drawn in terms of true running style, coordinated pursuit is unlikely to materialise.
Freedom BayErnie McCrewTaskheerRogers Dream
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Freedom Bay controls every dimension of this race — if she is allowed to roll along uncontested at a fair gallop, several rivals will be left flat-footed in the compressed midfield with no room to build a challenge; watch whether Taskheer or Kaaress push up to her girth early, as that could change the entire pace equation.
WATCH
Kev is flagged as a horse that fades in the finish and is being raced out of role in a 14-runner midfield — if he gets outpaced and hampers the hold-up horses attempting to generate late momentum, the back-half of the field could cause interference at a crucial stage.
WATCH
Senseofentitlement returns after 100 days without a run and is the lowest-rated horse in the field at OR 42; a lack of race fitness in a tightly bunched midfield could create traffic issues for those immediately behind.
NOTE
Sharma d'Amour's 110-day absence is the second-longest in the race — monitor market moves close to post time; if the Denis Coakley yard has this horse primed, the AW placed form and sim-going credentials make it a more interesting runner than the odds may reflect.
NOTE
Ernie McCrew's 3yo weight allowance (128lbs versus 135lbs for older rivals) is a tangible advantage in a flat handicap context — watch whether that 7lb edge translates in the market and whether the step up from 8f to 1m2f is treated as a positive or a concern by punters.
4:55 — Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap Stakes
King Cherry is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no meaningful pace rival to push him, should be able to dictate a controlled, sustainable tempo from the front at 7f on this flat Lingfield AW surface. Royal County Glory will press from a prominent position behind him, but is unlikely to force a genuine test — meaning King Cherry controls the fractions throughout. The field behind is overwhelmingly stacked with hold-up types (Ebn Sabt, Real Gold, Lesley Buckley, Audure, Power Cut, Ruiz, Melodical, Credit Forgedd It, Irish Fusilier), but the pace map cannot accommodate them all at the rear, and several — Ebn Sabt, Real Gold and Ruiz — are genuine hold-up horses remapped to midfield because there is simply not enough room at the back. With one front-runner setting a comfortable, unhurried pace and the hold-up contingent crowded and potentially boxed in, this race shape strongly favours the horse on the lead or sitting just off it in a prominent position, as closers face a compressed run with no true test to reel in.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
King Cherry Dictates Unchallenged
54% probability
If King Cherry bowls along comfortably in front and Royal County Glory settles just off without applying pressure, setting a fair but not brutal tempo.
King Cherry sets his own fractions, conserves energy through the middle section, and kicks clear in the final 2f before hold-up horses can organise a challenge; the flat, galloping nature of Lingfield AW at 7f suits a front-runner who can control pace rather than sprint.
King CherryRoyal County GloryMelodicalCredit Forgedd It
B
Prominent Pair Draw Clear
22% probability
If Royal County Glory tracks King Cherry aggressively and forces a slightly stronger pace, with the pair pulling clear of the hold-up pack.
A contested lead between King Cherry and Royal County Glory lifts the gallop just enough that a hold-up horse with a good turn of foot can close late, but the prominent pair still dominate; runners who travel in the slipstream of a genuine two-way duel at the head of affairs benefit most.
Royal County GloryMelodicalCredit Forgedd ItIrish Fusilier
C
Hold-Up Horses Pounce Late
14% probability
If King Cherry either fades in the final furlong or the pace proves genuinely strong enough to set up a late closing run from the rear.
Credit Forgedd It or Melodical, operating from a true hold-up position, get a clean run and pick off tired leaders in the closing stages; however, with so many hold-up horses remapped away from their natural position and traffic a near-certainty, this scenario is structurally unlikely.
Credit Forgedd ItMelodicalEbn SabtRuiz
D
Pace Collapse, Midfield Benefits
10% probability
If King Cherry is headed or voluntarily eases off and the race loses its shape entirely, creating a muddled sprint finish.
With pace removed and the field bunching, a horse who can quicken from mid-division benefits from the scramble; horses tagged as redistributed midfield runners gain marginal relevance here, but their structural style-fit discount means this remains the least likely outcome.
Royal County GloryReal GoldPower CutAudere
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
King Cherry — if he gets to the front uncontested and Marco Ghiani settles him into a comfortable rhythm, the entire field is racing to catch a horse who controls the tempo; watch whether anything pushes him in the first 2f.
WATCH
Traffic danger in the hold-up pack — with at least six genuine hold-up horses compressed into midfield, Credit Forgedd It, Melodical and Ruiz are all at risk of being boxed in turning for home; any horse drawn wide has a significant advantage in finding clear air.
WATCH
Royal County Glory's position in the early stages is critical — if Cieren Fallon allows him to drift back rather than pressing King Cherry, he loses his structural advantage as the most natural prominent horse in the field.
NOTE
Irish Fusilier — 83 days off and first run on AW Standard going for a horse with exclusively soft-ground form; watch the market and paddock closely, as Rob Hornby and the Moore stable are capable of producing a freshened horse fit to run well first time back.
NOTE
Twilight Baby — the "fades in finish" flag combined with a 39-day break means Saffie Osborne will need to time her challenge to perfection; if the pace drops off and she hits the front too soon, the fade flag becomes a decisive liability.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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