Archive›Lingfield (AW) · 28 April 2026

Lingfield (AW)

28 April 2026 · 7 races

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4:43 — Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap

5f · Standard · HCAP · 5 runners

Mick's Spirit likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Spendmore Lane and Mick's Spirit led, as the map showed.

Spendmore Lane won at 8.50 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Mick's Spirit

Prominent · 1

Aleppo Pepper

Midfield · 1

Ancient State

Hold Up · 2

Spendmore LaneLequinto

Mick's Spirit is the sole confirmed early leader and prolific course winner, likely to dictate from the front without pressure. Spendmore Lane and Aleppo Pepper sit prominent but both have shown they can be held up if needed. Ancient State, Lequinto, and potentially Spendmore Lane will be tracking from mid-pack or held up, creating a scenario where the leader faces minimal early pressure. This sustainable pace setup heavily favors front-runners and prominently-raced horses who can stay close to Mick's Spirit, as the lack of pace pressure will make it difficult for hold-up horses to close ground in a sprint finish.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

45% probability

If Mick's Spirit leads without serious challenge through halfway

The pace becomes too slow for closers to make up ground, allowing the leader to kick clear in the final furlong. Front-runners and prominent racers dominate the finish as hold-up horses find insufficient pace to close.

Mick's SpiritSpendmore LaneAleppo PepperAncient State

Prominent Horse Takeover

30% probability

If Spendmore Lane or Aleppo Pepper press Mick's Spirit from the 2f pole

A moderate pace battle develops that suits horses racing prominently who can quicken off a true gallop. The slight increase in tempo helps but still favors those positioned close to the pace throughout.

Spendmore LaneAleppo PepperMick's SpiritAncient State

Late Charge Succeeds

15% probability

If the early pace is genuinely crawling and Ancient State finds racing room

The hold-up brigade gets the perfect setup with an extremely slow tempo that allows time for a sustained finish. Ancient State's class edge becomes decisive in a sprint finish.

Ancient StateLequintoMick's SpiritSpendmore Lane

Pace Collapse

10% probability

If Mick's Spirit stops suddenly or loses action

The race becomes a scramble with no true pace, creating chaos that can suit any running style. Form and class become more important than tactical positioning.

Ancient StateSpendmore LaneAleppo PepperLequinto

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Mick's Spirit may be rusty after 54-day break and could stop quickly if not fully wound up for return

WATCH

Spendmore Lane's running style may switch to leading if Mick's Spirit doesn't show early speed, creating different pace dynamics

NOTE

Ancient State has tactical speed despite hold-up style and could sit closer if sensing slow pace development

WATCH

Aleppo Pepper only has three career runs making her pace positioning and finishing kick unpredictable

NOTE

Track the early fractions as any sub-standard sectionals will severely disadvantage the hold-up horses

5:18 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Restricted Maiden Stakes (Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

1m · Standard · CLS4 · 12 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

5:50 — Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap

6f · Standard · HCAP · 11 runners

Lead contested: Merlier v CompradorHISTORIC

How it ran

Akabusi led; the map had Merlier and Comprador in front.

Rogue Messiah won at 5.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

MerlierComprador

Prominent · 4

Bone MarraRogue MessiahAkabusiNifty

Midfield · 2

Manly FireballLittle Jaybee

Hold Up · 3

Eternal SolaceGoldworkAlasrae

Merlier and Comprador will lead from the gates, with both confirmed front-runners likely to set a solid early gallop over this 6f trip. Behind them, prominent racers Rogue Messiah, Akabusi, and Bone Marra will track the leaders closely, while hold-up horses Eternal Solace, Alasrae, and Goldwork will need to find racing room in the final 2f. The pace should be honest but not excessive with just two genuine leaders, creating a rhythm that will suit horses who can position prominently and have a sustained kick rather than pure sprinters. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and those with tactical speed who can avoid getting shuffled back in a competitive 11-runner field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Racers Dominate

45% probability

If the early pace is solid but controlled, allowing prominent runners to stay in touch

The leaders set it up perfectly for those tracking just behind, who can kick clear in the final furlong without needing a miracle run from the back. Rogue Messiah and Akabusi are ideally positioned to capitalize on their tactical speed.

Rogue MessiahAkabusiBone MarraNifty

Hold-Up Artists Strike

30% probability

If the pace becomes too strong early with Merlier and Comprador going at it

The front-runners tie up in the final furlong, opening the door for closers with a turn of foot to sweep past tired leaders. Alasrae's recent C&D win and Eternal Solace's progressive form make them the prime beneficiaries.

AlasraeEternal SolaceGoldworkManly Fireball

Front-Runner Survives

15% probability

If one of the leaders gets an uncontested lead or breaks clear early

Merlier or Comprador gets first run and holds on grimly, with their early position proving decisive in a competitive finish. The lack of genuine early pace pressure allows the leader to dictate terms and resist late challenges.

MerlierCompradorRogue MessiahAkabusi

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If both leaders go off too conservatively or one drops out early

The race becomes a sprint from the 3f pole, suiting horses with pure finishing speed regardless of position. This chaotic finish could throw up a surprise winner from those who wouldn't normally get their chance in a truly-run race.

Bone MarraGoldworkLittle JaybeeManly Fireball

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Merlier could set too strong an early pace if pressured hard by Comprador, compromising both leaders' chances

WATCH

Bone Marra returning after 171-day break but has won fresh before so monitor market support closely

NOTE

Alasrae and Akabusi finished close together at this C&D last time so their clash will be key to the outcome

WATCH

Little Jaybee has shown a tendency to fade in the finish and may struggle at this longer 6f trip

NOTE

Eternal Solace needs a strong pace to aim at given her hold-up style but has the class to win if it develops

6:20 — Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap

6f · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners

Mortubo likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Enter Sandman led; the map had Mortubo in front.

Enter Sandman won at 3.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Mortubo

Prominent · 2

Dusk DamselCalabrian Soldato

Midfield · 4

Due DestinySun PathSaddle UpPower Cut

Hold Up · 3

Enter SandmanLuna BeauxNo Claims Bonus

Mortubo and Dusk Damsel will likely lead early, with Calabrian Soldato also showing prominent tendencies despite recent fading issues. Enter Sandman and Luna Beaux, both hold-up specialists with recent good form, will be positioned towards the rear waiting to pounce. The moderate early pace should suit those that can finish, particularly given several front-runners (Sun Path, Saddle Up, Calabrian Soldato) have shown tendencies to fade in the closing stages. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can stay on when the early pace-setters tire.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses strike

55% probability

If the early pace is moderate and the prominent horses fade as expected

Enter Sandman and Luna Beaux will have perfect position to unleash late runs when Mortubo and Dusk Damsel weaken. The fading tendencies of several front-runners creates ideal conditions for closers with tactical speed.

Enter SandmanLuna BeauxNo Claims BonusPower Cut

Prominent horse sustains

25% probability

If Dusk Damsel improves dropping to 6f on handicap debut

The Moore filly could find the shorter trip suits better than her 7f-8f maiden efforts. Her prominent style gives her first run on opponents who typically need cover.

Dusk DamselMortuboEnter SandmanCalabrian Soldato

Surprise improver emerges

12% probability

If No Claims Bonus gets a clear run after her blocked Nottingham effort

The Eustace filly has Loughnane aboard and showed ability with that Wolverhampton third. A cleaner passage could unlock improvement from her hold-up style.

No Claims BonusPower CutLuna BeauxDue Destiny

Front-runner survives

8% probability

If Mortubo breaks her poor recent sequence with improved fitness

The Queally partnership could benefit from the 196-day break freshening her up. Her previous course winner suggests she handles the track when right.

MortuboCalabrian SoldatoDusk DamselEnter Sandman

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Mortubo's fitness after 196 days off - any sign of rustiness early will end chances

WATCH

Enter Sandman's ability to settle in larger field having won in small field at Newcastle

NOTE

Dusk Damsel's position early as dropping trip could see her more prominent than usual

WATCH

Luna Beaux and No Claims Bonus getting clear runs in finish given hold-up styles

NOTE

Due Destiny's behaviour in new hood on stable debut for Owens yard

6:50 — Download The At The Races App Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m2f · Standard · CLS3 · 9 runners

Liveinthelight likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Crimson Dawn led; the map had Liveinthelight in front.

Knights Charge won at 1.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Liveinthelight

Prominent · 1

Master Dancer

Midfield · 4

ShopaholicCyrano De BergeracBe HopefulCrimson Dawn

Hold Up · 3

Knights ChargeMr BollingerLeonato

Liveinthelight appears the only natural front-runner in a field dominated by hold-up horses and debutants, creating an uncontested lead scenario. With Knights Charge and Master Dancer likely to press from prominent positions, the early pace should be sustainable rather than testing. The abundance of hold-up types (Knights Charge, Mr Bollinger, Leonato, Crimson Dawn) means the majority will be relying on late runs over this 1m2f trip. This race shape clearly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will ensue when multiple hold-up horses converge in the straight.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

45% probability

If Liveinthelight gets an easy lead without early pressure from the debutants

She can dictate fractions and prove hard to peg back, while the hold-up brigade get tangled up behind. The lack of early pace pressure allows front-runners to conserve energy for the finish.

LiveinthelightMaster DancerShopaholicBe Hopeful

Debutant Breakthrough

30% probability

If one of the Gosden/Menuisier newcomers shows immediate ability and racing maturity

The superior breeding of Be Hopeful or Cyrano De Bergerac overcomes their inexperience in a weak maiden. Their trainers' 14-day records suggest they're sending them here with confidence.

Be HopefulCyrano De BergeracKnights ChargeShopaholic

Late Surge Prevails

15% probability

If the pace becomes too slow and Knights Charge gets the perfect late run

His Kempton third showed he needs time to wind up, and a dawdling pace here would suit his hold-up style perfectly. The 148-day break could have him spot-on for Roger Varian.

Knights ChargeMr BollingerLiveinthelightLeonato

Complete Longshot

10% probability

If the front two in the market both disappoint and one of the outsiders benefits from the chaos

A slow pace and subsequent sprint finish could see an unfancied hold-up horse like Leonato finally show improvement after his November debut. The weak nature of this maiden opens it up to surprises.

LeonatoMr BollingerMaster DancerCrimson Dawn

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

If Liveinthelight gets shuffled back early, the race becomes a lottery with no natural pace-setter

WATCH

Watch for market support for Shopaholic and Be Hopeful as debut runners with limited public form

NOTE

Knights Charge's position turning for home is crucial - needs to be within striking distance despite hold-up style

WATCH

If the early pace is very slow, it could turn into a sprint finish favouring the unknown debutants

NOTE

Master Dancer's jumping background might help him handle traffic problems better than pure Flat horses

7:20 — Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap

1m2f · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners

Lead contested: Romantic Spirit v EtretatHISTORIC

How it ran

Joseph and Blue Wonder and Romantic Spirit led, as the map showed.

Joseph won at 4.33 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Romantic SpiritEtretat

Prominent · 4

CriminalJosephBlue WonderVoix De Bocelli

Midfield · 1

Hello Cotai

Hold Up · 3

Penfolds GrangeLenny's SpiritOnslow Gardens

Romantic Spirit and Etretat are the confirmed front-runners who will contest the early lead, with Romantic Spirit having shown consistent front-running form and Etretat returning from a break with four AW wins including course and distance. The presence of four prominent runners (Joseph, Criminal, Blue Wonder, Voix De Bocelli) creates congestion behind the leaders, setting up potential traffic problems approaching the home turn. This honest gallop over 1m2f will stretch the field out gradually, but the prominent brigade faces tactical difficulties if bunched up. The race shape clearly favours hold-up horses who can avoid the early scrimmaging and benefit from the strong pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Benefit

55% probability

If the two leaders set honest fractions and the prominent quartet gets shuffled back

The strong pace stretches the field and creates gaps for closers to exploit in the final two furlongs. Hello Cotai, Penfolds Grange and Lenny's Spirit can time their runs perfectly from off the pace.

Hello CotaiPenfolds GrangeLenny's SpiritOnslow Gardens

Front Runner Dominates

25% probability

If one of the leaders gets an uncontested or soft lead while rivals compromise each other

Romantic Spirit or Etretat can dictate terms and kick clear when the pace lifts, holding on from the closers. The winner comes from setting their own fractions without pressure.

Romantic SpiritEtretatJosephCriminal

Prominent Runners Strike

12% probability

If the front two go too fast early and the prominent horses get good positions without interference

The pace collapses in the final furlong allowing Joseph, Criminal or Blue Wonder to pick up the pieces. These runners benefit from a strong gallop but avoid the early speed duel.

JosephCriminalBlue WonderVoix De Bocelli

Messy Tactical Affair

8% probability

If both leaders are slowly away or get headed early creating a stop-start gallop

The race becomes a sprint from the home turn with no strong pace to suit anyone. The best horse on the day wins regardless of tactics in a bunched finish.

Penfolds GrangeJosephCriminalHello Cotai

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for traffic problems involving Joseph, Criminal, Blue Wonder and Voix De Bocelli if they all want prominent positions behind the leaders

WATCH

Monitor whether Romantic Spirit can cross from her wide draw to take up the running without using too much energy

NOTE

Hello Cotai and Etretat both return from long breaks so watch for any signs of rustiness in the preliminaries

WATCH

Check if both Romantic Spirit and Etretat go forward together as a genuine speed duel could set this up perfectly for closers

NOTE

Lenny's Spirit carries a 5lb claiming rider which could prove significant in a tight finish given his recent near-miss

7:50 — attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap

1m · Standard · HCAP · 6 runners

Katalyst to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Bennyworth led; the map had Katalyst in front.

Wild Thoughts won at 1.22 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Katalyst

Prominent · 1

Labiche

Midfield · 2

Timely SaluteBetty Lemon

Hold Up · 2

BennyworthWild Thoughts

Katalyst will be the only confirmed front runner in this small field, giving her a sustainable lead without early pressure from flag to finish. Labiche may press from a prominent position but has shown fading tendencies, while the majority - Bennyworth, Wild Thoughts, Timely Salute, and Betty Lemon - will sit back and look to finish. With one uncontested leader and four hold-up horses, this creates a moderate pace that will accelerate late as the closers make their moves. This race shape clearly favours the front runner who can control the tempo and the strongest closer who can produce the best late kick.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Prevails

45% probability

If Katalyst gets an easy lead and stays the trip

The mare controls fractions without pressure and has enough left to resist late challengers, making her best efforts over 7f suggest the mile won't be beyond her scope. Her front-running style becomes a significant tactical advantage in this small, closer-heavy field.

KatalystWild ThoughtsBennyworth

Strongest Closer Strikes

35% probability

If the pace becomes too slow for Katalyst to sustain her kick

Wild Thoughts or Bennyworth produce the best late turn of foot from their hold-up positions, with Wild Thoughts having winning form and Bennyworth offering more scope in handicaps. The moderate early pace sets up perfectly for horses with a strong finishing kick.

Wild ThoughtsBennyworthKatalyst

Prominent Horse Takes Advantage

12% probability

If Labiche avoids her usual fade and stays closer to the pace

The Henry Candy runner uses her prominent position to strike before the hold-up horses can get organized, though her tendency to fade late remains a significant concern. Her fresher legs after 244 days off could provide the necessary improvement.

LabicheKatalystWild Thoughts

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If Katalyst goes too slowly and multiple closers finish strongly

The race becomes a messy sprint finish where any of the hold-up horses can prevail, with Timely Salute potentially benefiting from the stronger pace despite distance concerns. This creates the most unpredictable outcome with the weakest horses capable of placing.

Timely SaluteBetty LemonWild ThoughtsBennyworth

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Katalyst's early fractions - if she goes too fast early she'll be vulnerable to late closers despite her tactical advantage.

WATCH

Wild Thoughts' position turning for home - if she gets a clear run from her hold-up style she looks the main danger.

WATCH

Labiche's effort pattern - watch if she can sustain her run better than usual after the long break.

NOTE

Bennyworth's progress under the inexperienced apprentice - any market support would suggest stable confidence.

NOTE

The pace through the first half-mile - if it's crawling, expect a bunched finish favouring the strongest closer.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 28 April 2026.

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