Daisy Roots led; the map had Rogue Dynasty in front.
Mister Mojito won at 3.25 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Rogue Dynasty
Prominent · 1
Daisy Roots
Midfield · 6
OptimatumDancing TerrorMajestic WaveDandy KhanSub ThirteenAshford Hill
Hold Up · 3
SahanaMister MojitoPenfolds Grange
Rogue Dynasty is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with Daisy Roots the only other prominent-style runner, faces minimal pressure to her inside or outside across the first furlong, meaning she can dictate a controlled, honest gallop rather than a lung-busting fractions race. Daisy Roots will sit just off the pace and apply some pressure but not enough to turn this into a true test of stamina at 7f on standard Lingfield AW. The bulk of the field — Optimatum, Dancing Terror, Majestic Wave, Dandy Khan, Sub Thirteen and Ashford Hill — are all genuine hold-up types who have been pushed forward on the pace map because the rear is over-subscribed; in reality these horses will be ridden to get cover in mid-to-rear division and will need a sustained gallop to get competitive. With a single pace-setter controlling modest fractions, this shape most strongly favours horses who race prominently or just off the pace and can sustain their effort through the final two furlongs — front-to-prominent runners hold the structural edge here.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Rogue Dynasty Controls Wire
58% probability
If Rogue Dynasty is allowed to stride clear from the gates and sets a measured, uncontested gallop.
Rogue Dynasty dictates tempo from the front, Daisy Roots tracks in second, and the hold-up brigade are left with too much ground to make up against a horse who has never been headed at a crucial point; the moderate fractions suit a prominent, well-drawn runner who can quicken into the straight. Daisy Roots, racing naturally on the pace, is ideally placed to capitalise if Rogue Dynasty fades.
Rogue DynastyDaisy RootsSahanaMister Mojito
B
Hold-Up Surge Too Late
20% probability
If the gallop is genuinely true and the hold-up horses find clear daylight turning for home.
A proper pace allows the back-markers to close, but most redistributed hold-up types in this field are not true closers and will need an unusually strong gallop that Rogue Dynasty is unlikely to set; the horses with genuine late-race form — Sahana and Mister Mojito — are the most plausible beneficiaries. Even so, the structural mismatch between natural style and mapped position reduces the probability of this shape delivering a winner from the rear.
SahanaMister MojitoPenfolds GrangeSub Thirteen
C
Prominent Duo Battle Out
15% probability
If Daisy Roots challenges Rogue Dynasty vigorously from halfway, turning it into a sustained duel.
A two-horse pace battle burns off the front-runners and leaves the door ajar for a prominent-to-midfield horse to swoop late; Sahana, with the highest OR at 70 and a course-and-distance placed run on her record, is best equipped to pick up the pieces. Penfolds Grange, placed twice at this track and trip on standard, could also fill a frame position if the leaders tire.
SahanaPenfolds GrangeDandy KhanMister Mojito
D
Chaos — Wide Draw Trouble
7% probability
If the wider-drawn runners lose significant ground at the start and traffic problems scramble the race shape entirely.
With eleven runners over 7f at Lingfield, horses drawn wide who need a prominent position may find themselves shuffled back in the first two furlongs, and the resulting concertina effect leaves the race genuinely open. Dandy Khan's course experience (13 from 15 runs on standard going) gives him the adaptability to handle a messy race, though his OR of 60 remains a handicapping concern against higher-rated rivals.
Dandy KhanAshford HillDancing TerrorSub Thirteen
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Rogue Dynasty's ability to secure a clean, uncontested lead is the single most important factor — if she is allowed to stride clear at her own pace, the entire field faces a stern structural disadvantage and the race shape becomes very one-dimensional.
WATCH
Dandy Khan's trainer form (Jim Boyle 2/10 T14) combined with his strong course record on standard going makes him a horse to keep an eye on in the market — if he shortens late, it may reflect stable confidence that outweighs his hold-up style disadvantage.
WATCH
Mister Mojito's stable is 3/3 in the last 14 days for TJ Kent — a small but perfect record — and the tongue-tie angle means any unexpected improvement here could catch punters off guard if pace develops to suit hold-up horses.
NOTE
The redistribution of six true hold-up horses into midfield on the pace map means the final two furlongs could become congested if all of them make their move simultaneously — watch for horses such as Sahana and Penfolds Grange who have the clearest profile to pick through traffic late.
NOTE
Sub Thirteen and Ashford Hill, both on low weights with claiming apprentices, could be underestimated outsiders if the race deteriorates into a tactical crawl and the field bunches — their claims and course form at 7f on standard give them marginal each-way relevance at price.
5:48 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1) (AWT)
7f · Standard · CLS4 · 10 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:18 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Ebf Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Band D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race) (Div II)
7f · Standard · CLS4 · 9 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:48 — John Cunliffe Obf 80th Birthday Handicap Stakes
6f · Standard · HCAP · 12 runners
Elvetham likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Style King led; the map had Elvetham in front.
Elvetham won at 7.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Elvetham is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 12-runner field and should lead comfortably from stall, setting a controlled, honest gallop over Lingfield's straight 6f without any genuine pace pressure to force him wide or burn early. With no rival able to match his position from the gate, the fractions will be measured rather than frantic — Elvetham shapes as a genuine factor throughout rather than a pacemaker who will be swallowed up. The field behind him is overwhelmingly composed of hold-up types: Just Jump, Havana Sky, Phoenix Moon, Balon d'Or, Master Dandy, Vitalline and Express Train are all true closers pushed forward on the map simply because the rear is overcrowded, meaning they cannot all get their natural position and several must race further forward than ideal. This race shape — a lone leader at controlled fractions, a congested closing pack lacking room to express themselves — favours horses who can race prominently or make a forward move from midfield early enough to avoid the late traffic, and penalises true hold-up types who need gaps that a bunched field rarely gives.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Elvetham Controls Unchallenged
52% probability
If Elvetham leads cleanly and no rival applies early pressure, allowing him to dictate a sustainable pace throughout.
Elvetham bowls along on a fair clip with no challenger to his inside or outside, conserving energy into the straight before finding extra when the field closes; his OR-58 mark looks lenient if he gets an uncontested lead on this flat, gallop-friendly surface.
ElvethamStyle KingTwilight MadnessMaster Dandy
B
Front Pair Clear Late
22% probability
If Elvetham is joined by one of the redistributed midfielders who breaks forward aggressively, creating a genuine pace duel that still suits those tracking closely.
The pace quickens and Elvetham battles gamely but a horse tracking in second or third slot picks up the rhythm to challenge; horses with tactical versatility who can sit just off the pace without burning early reserves come into their own.
Style KingTwilight MadnessFederal EnvoyHavana Sky
C
Closers Deliver Late Surge
16% probability
If Elvetham's gallop is genuinely strong enough to open the track up and the hold-up horses find clear daylight in the closing furlong.
The field strings out and a true closer with pace reserves gets a gap on the inside or outside rail in the final 150 yards; this scenario requires the field to thin and the pace to have been brisk enough to stop the leaders — neither is guaranteed given one front-runner and multiple displaced hold-ups.
VitallineJust JumpHavana SkyPhoenix Moon
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
10% probability
If multiple displaced hold-up horses push forward competing for prominent positions early, creating a scrambled pace that collapses in the final furlong.
The redistribution effect fires: several natural closers forced wide and forward burn energy they cannot afford, the pace spikes and then drops, and the race degenerates into a tactical mess where tactical intelligence from jockey and horse matters most.
ReposadoFederal EnvoyTwilight MadnessBalon d'Or
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Elvetham has run just 5 days ago — watch the market closely; if he drifts significantly it may indicate the quick turnaround is a concern, which would remove the only front-runner and fundamentally alter the race shape.
WATCH
Multiple hold-up horses (Just Jump, Havana Sky, Master Dandy, Phoenix Moon) are displaced onto the midfield map — watch the early stages for a squeeze or crowding on the inside rail as these horses are forced wider than ideal, increasing collision risk in the first two furlongs.
WATCH
Vitalline's 15-from-15 similar-going profile is statistically striking but she is at OR-52 in a competitive handicap — watch whether Josephine Gordon elects to drop her out regardless of the map, which would leave her with a significant amount of ground to make up in a compressed final furlong.
NOTE
Style King won last time out at 6f/Standard with Marco Ghiani aboard — watch whether he travels smoothly in the first half of the race, as a horse with recent form on this exact surface and trip is one of the few runners whose profile genuinely fits the likely race shape without redistribution caveats.
NOTE
Federal Envoy and Reposado both carry the hg:p flag (prominent tendency noted in headgear records) despite being mapped as hold-up types — watch the early break to see if either pushes forward unexpectedly, which could create a two-horse pace scenario and alter the fractions significantly.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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