2:18

Archive›Listowel · 20 September 2026

Listowel

20 September 2026 · 7 races

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2:18 — Kinisla Charleville Cheese 3-Y-O Hurdle
2m · Good · DEFAULT · 11 runners
Dunmore likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Minella Buoy led; the map had Dunmore in front.

Danny Power won at 4.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Dunmore
Prominent · 2
Hello GardaMinella Buoy
Midfield · 3
Did TellJulie's MoonDanny Power
Hold Up · 5
WipeawayyourtearsPremier PrincessChairmanforlifeConnor Of MaliSonny Corleone
Dunmore will likely lead from the off, having raced prominently last time and with the yard and jockey favouring forward tactics, but faces a critical vulnerability: the horse fades in the finish and has only one run on record. Hello Garda and Minella Buoy are the main threats to contest the pace, both with proven records over this trip and going, though neither is a confirmed front-runner. The majority of the field are hold-up types or lightly raced three-year-olds without established patterns. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip here (winning at nearly 1.3 times the market expectation), and a genuine pace will be set, but Dunmore's tendency to fade means the race will likely be won by a horse that can track the pace without being burned out early—a prominent racer or one that quickens into a weakening leader in the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Dunmore leads, fades badly
18% probability
If Dunmore sets a strong early pace and his finish fails to hold
Dunmore's early speed draws the field forward into a fast opening, but his known weakness in the closing stages means he weakens sharply from two furlongs out. A horse tracking him closely with a stronger engine will inherit the lead and pull clear in the final furlong.
Hello GardaMinella BuoyConnor Of MaliChairmanforlife
B
Minella Buoy takes control
28% probability
If Minella Buoy settles behind Dunmore and moves past him turning for home
Minella Buoy's record on good ground (three places from seven runs) and experience over 16–17 furlongs show consistency, and sitting prominent allows the horse to capitalise on Dunmore's predictable fade. The prominent-racer profile has held its ground here and Minella Buoy is well-placed to be the predator.
Minella BuoyHello GardaConnor Of MaliWipeawayyourtears
C
Hello Garda strikes from behind
26% probability
If Hello Garda settles in midfield early and quickens past tiring leaders in the closing stages
Hello Garda has won and placed frequently on good ground (9 runs, 1 win, 3 places) and has a recent form of 3–1–unplaced, suggesting fitness and readiness. A race set up by Dunmore's early pressure will leave the door open for a horse with this record to arrive fresh and deliver late.
Hello GardaMinella BuoyWipeawayyourtearsDunmore
D
Closer punches through
28% probability
If the early pace collapses and hold-up horses make their move from three furlongs out
Wipeawayyourtears (1 win, 2 places from 6 on good ground) and Connor Of Mali (4 places from recent runs) sit waiting and strike when the tiring leaders falter. This profile is out of favour at this trip but a slowly-run early race would hand the advantage to horses positioned to pounce.
WipeawayyourtearsConnor Of MaliHello GardaMinella Buoy

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHDunmoreHello GardapMinella BuoyhDid TellJulie's MoonDanny PowerWipeawayyourtea…hPremier PrincesstChairmanforlifeConnor Of MaliSonny Corleone6. Dunmore1. Hello Garda2. Minella Buoy7. Did Tell8. Julie's Moon9. Danny Power5. Wipeawayyourtears10. Premier Princess4. Chairmanforlife3. Connor Of Mali11. Sonny Corleone
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Minella Buoy is the most dangerous horse in the race: proven experience at 16–17 furlongs on good, recent placing form, and tactical position to challenge Dunmore in the crucial second half.
WATCH
Dunmore will set the pace but is heavily dependent on dictating from the front; if Hello Garda or Minella Buoy get within striking distance turning for home, his known fading tendency leaves him vulnerable to the kick.
NOTE
The three lightly raced debutants (Danny Power, Did Tell, Julie's Moon) are unlikely to impose here; monitor for market moves if any show training-ground form.
KEY
Hello Garda's excellent record over this exact trip and going (9 runs, 1 win, 3 places) combined with a sharp jockey and recent fitness make it a genuine threat if the early pace suits a trailing approach.
WATCH
Hold-up types are structurally disfavoured in this race shape; only prioritise Wipeawayyourtears if the pace slows to a crawl in the first mile.
2:48 — Kinisla Cheestrings Irish EBF Mares Hurdle
2m4f · Good · DEFAULT · 5 runners
Easter Bonnet likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Easter Bonnet led, as the map showed.

Tumbling In won at 2.20 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Easter Bonnet
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 2
Tumbling InMajestic Force
Hold Up · 2
Le Nez CreuxSea Coral
Easter Bonnet, the only confirmed front-runner, will likely set or race prominently for the early stages, but with only one lead from six recent runs she is not a strong pace-maker and may come under pressure before the finish. The field holds no other forward-going types of note—Le Nez Creux and Sea Coral are hold-up horses, Tumbling In a midfield runner, and Majestic Force an unknown quantity after 505 days away. Easter Bonnet's lack of a solid lead record combined with this absence of pace support means the race will develop into a modest gallop that suits neither pressured early running nor very strong acceleration late. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, but Easter Bonnet is not a true front-runner; hold-up horses have underperformed here. Midfield runners and horses ridden positively from within the field have a slight edge, and the Strand Scorecard's support for Majestic Force suggests that horse, if sharp enough after such a long absence, may prove the tactical answer to a race lacking decisive pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Majestic Force breaks through
72% probability
If Majestic Force settles in the middle and quickens past Easter Bonnet in the straight.
The yard (de Bromhead) is in strong form and the horse carries top weight and Strand backing; eight years old and 505 days away is a concern, but if the fitness is adequate, a soft early pace plays directly into its favour. No hold-up horse can catch it because the closing speed is insufficient, and Easter Bonnet lacks the class to hold it off.
Majestic ForceEaster BonnetTumbling InLe Nez Creux
B
Tumbling In runs on
16% probability
If Tumbling In settles midfield and finds a closing gear in the final furlong.
The McNamara yard has sent one winner from a single recent runner, and this horse has placed three times on Good going over similar trips; it will benefit from a steady pace that lets it creep into contention without overshooting. Easter Bonnet tires and the hold-up horses lack the pace to catch it.
Tumbling InMajestic ForceEaster BonnetSea Coral
C
Easter Bonnet holds on
8% probability
If Easter Bonnet is ridden positively from the start and holds enough in reserve to ward off a late challenge.
The Mullins yard goes forward frequently and Brian Hayes is an aggressive pilot, but the mare has led only once in six runs and did not win when leading last time; she will need to be stronger today than recent form suggests, and the runner-up market price does not reward this outcome.
Easter BonnetTumbling InMajestic ForceSea Coral
D
Outsider hold-up close late
4% probability
If Le Nez Creux or Sea Coral produce a surprise late run from the back.
Hold-up horses have significantly underperformed over this trip and going; both runners have placed at Listowel but neither shows the turn of foot to overcome a sustained middle-runner challenge. This is the least likely shape.
Le Nez CreuxSea CoralEaster BonnetMajestic Force

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHEaster BonnettTumbling InMajestic ForceLe Nez CreuxtSea Coralt2. Easter Bonnet3. Tumbling In1. Majestic Force4. Le Nez Creux5. Sea Coral
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Majestic Force has 505 days away—if that manifests in any early greenness or loss of wind, the race becomes more open and Tumbling In or Easter Bonnet may capitalise.
WATCH
Easter Bonnet is expected to race prominently but was not led last time and carries only 150 lbs; if pressed early by a stronger pace (unlikely here), she may flatten and hand the race to a back-marker.
NOTE
This is a five-runner mares hurdle with no dominant front-runner; the outcome hinges heavily on whether Majestic Force is match-fit and whether the Listowel track favours the Mullins or de Bromhead training angle on the day.
3:18 — Kinisla Bloom Feeds Irish EBF Mares Handicap Hurdle
2m2f · Good · HCAP · 19 runners
Speisialta to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Speisialta led, as the map showed.

Fraher Field won at 15.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

9 of 18 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Speisialta
Prominent · 7
How's EllieRadiator SpringsSplashing OutChosen ShantEye Of A TigerRegards To RoseRiver Tara
Midfield · 2
Wonderful EverydayJeaniemacaroney
Hold Up · 9
BynxTountinnaPampar LadyShirzanFraher FieldRun For The BorderBrosna QueenMidnight EagleMysilverriverfeale
Speisialta is the sole confirmed front-runner, having led in 2 of its last 3 runs and raced prominently most recently; the horse will likely dictate from the off with sustainable, uncontested pace. Radiator Springs and Splashing Out are proven prominent racers with strong recent records on this going, and both will be ridden to track Speisialta, but neither is a natural leader—they will settle in support rather than challenge the pace. The field contains a cluster of hold-up horses (Fraher Field, Tountinna, Pampar Lady, Midnight Eagle, Run For The Border, Bynx) but no coherent second wave of pressure-makers, meaning the race is unlikely to develop into a contest between pace-setters and closers. Front-runners have won significantly above the market expectation at this trip and going, with nearly half of them placed; by contrast, hold-up horses have underperformed markedly. This race shape favours horses able to race prominently or dictate early, and strongly disfavours those forced to come from deep.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Speisialta clears and controls
58% probability
If Speisialta settles in front and meets no serious early pressure from Radiator Springs or Splashing Out.
Speisialta will be allowed to dictate from flag-fall, with the field strung out in a pursuit line that never threatens to close the gap. The winner will be a confirmed front-runner or one of the two prominent racers able to take the race on from an ideal early position, both of which profiles have strong historical evidence at this trip and ground.
SpeisialtaSplashing OutRadiator SpringsEye Of A Tiger
B
Splashing Out or Radiator Springs steal it
24% probability
If one of the two most-recent prominent racers can shift up from second or third to challenge Speisialta in the straight and quicken past.
Splashing Out has three wins on similar going and a strong recent record, whilst Radiator Springs has proved form at Listowel; both handle the trip and ground well and are ridden by jockeys with track fitness in form yards. A race won from the prominent berth remains consistent with the data and would favour horses already positioned in the first three.
Splashing OutRadiator SpringsChosen ShantWonderful Everyday
C
Chosen Shant late charge
12% probability
If Speisialta and the prominent racers burn off the pace and Chosen Shant, a proven finisher on this ground with two wins from this trip class, can pick them up late.
Chosen Shant has won twice at this trip on good going and posted four placings from its last five runs; it profiles as a rare hold-up horse with the tactical awareness and fitness to pounce in the closing stages. A late-charging victory would require the early pace to be truly unsustainable, an unlikely scenario given Speisialta's record of controlled front-running.
Chosen ShantMidnight EagleBynxRun For The Border
D
Fraher Field surprises from the handicap
6% probability
If the early pace is steadied mid-race and Fraher Field, a danger flagged by the Strand Scorecard, can slot through and find extra off a recent run and strong ground record.
Fraher Field has two placings from its last four starts and has won or placed six times on good going; however, it is a hold-up type in a race built for pace, and would require Speisialta and the prominent racers to malfunction. This outcome contradicts the pace data and the performance profile of hold-up horses at this trip and going.
Fraher FieldPampar LadyBrosna QueenMysilverriverfeale

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHSpeisialtahtHow's EllieRadiator SpringsSplashing OutbChosen ShantpEye Of A TigerRegards To RosetRiver TaratWonderful Every…JeaniemacaroneyBynxTountinnahPampar LadyShirzanFraher FieldRun For The Bor…Brosna QueenMidnight EagleMysilverriverfe…ht1. Speisialta15. How's Ellie3. Radiator Springs2. Splashing Out5. Chosen Shant4. Eye Of A Tiger18. Regards To Rose16. River Tara9. Wonderful Everyday14. Jeaniemacaroney10. Bynx17. Tountinna8. Pampar Lady19. Shirzan7. Fraher Field11. Run For The Border12. Brosna Queen6. Midnight Eagle13. Mysilverriverfeale
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Splashing Out is the most credible challenger to Speisialta: it has three wins at this trip on good going, posted five placings recently, and is ridden by an in-form yard; if the early pace is truly sustainable and Splashing Out gets a clear run in the straight, it can pick off the leader.
WATCH
Regards To Rose is bottom-weighted at 98 lb and figures as the cheapest pace option off its form; however, the spotlight flags that it fades in the finish, a critical flaw at a trip where late-running closers underperform markedly—back it only if you believe the recent winning run has sharpened it beyond that historical pattern.
NOTE
River Tara is entered as a prominent mapper despite eight years on the clock and no Listowel form in the data; if the early pace softens, it may prove a late substitute runner unable to handle the pace and tactical setup.
NOTE
Fraher Field is flagged as a Strand danger but holds a hold-up profile in a race fundamentally built for front-runners; it will need a collapse of pace and Speisialta's early dominance to matter, an unlikely double.
NOTE
The Mullins pair (Wonderful Everyday, How's Ellie) are lightly-raced in the field and come from a yard in form; monitor their market support, but their midfield and prominent profiles are both secondary to the clear pace control available to Speisialta.
3:48 — Kinisla Dairygold Maiden Hurdle
2m6f · Good · MDN · 17 runners
Lead contested: Run Ted Run v Game TheatreHISTORIC

How it ran

Labondance led; the map had Run Ted Run and Game Theatre in front.

Run Ted Run won at 1.67 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2
Run Ted RunGame Theatre
Prominent · 4
Ocovango LadyBeyond ForgivenessSharp As GlassHaveanothertry
Midfield · 3
Bobo BuckMinella MaverickLabondance
Hold Up · 8
Too Hot To TrotTribal ThunderGoodmanconUrra Mass RockRememberwhatMisty ValentineFuuslandGillane
Run Ted Run and Game Theatre are confirmed front-runners, both having led in their sole recent outings, and both will fight for the early advantage in this 17-runner maiden hurdle. Paul Townend's mount brings a win on good ground at 2m over hurdles just 52 days ago, while Game Theatre last led 171 days back on soft—an age layoff that may blunt early sharpness. The pair will set an honest, contested gallop from flag fall, with neither likely to roll over, creating a truly run race that will favour horses with genuine stamina and the ability to settle into a rhythm early. This shape rewards front-runners and prominent racers who can track the pace without burning themselves out, and punishes hold-up types forced to make late charges up the straight without cover. The Strand view (Haveanothertry top) aligns: a horse raced prominently and with middle-distance pedigree beats those holding up or arriving late against a sternly-set tempo.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Run Ted Run dominates
52% probability
If Run Ted Run settles into a clear rhythm and the field accepts a steady hunting pace behind him.
Run Ted Run's recent winning form over this trip on good ground gives him the sharpness to dispatch Game Theatre early and build an uncontested lead; hold-up horses fade without a target and closers find no room in the straight.
Run Ted RunGame TheatreHaveanothertryBeyond Forgiveness
B
Contested lead, prominent wins
38% probability
If Game Theatre matches Run Ted Run early and the two engage in a true pace battle.
A hard early fight between the two front-runners creates an honest gallop that suits midfield racers with tactical speed; Haveanothertry and Beyond Forgiveness can slot in prominently and pounce when the leaders tire at the final flight.
HaveanothertryBeyond ForgivenessRun Ted RunGame Theatre
C
Front-runner fades, closer pounces
7% probability
If Run Ted Run or Game Theatre overextend early chasing the impossible pace.
A hold-up horse capitalizes on a burning-out front-runner and runs on past a tired field in the closing stages; this relies on one of the leaders self-destructing rather than a true competitive advantage.
GoodmanconGillaneRememberwhatFuusland
D
Tiring field, survival wins
3% probability
If the ground or distance breaks the field and no horse establishes genuine rhythm.
A modest, patient racer picks through exhausted rivals in the final furlong; this outcome requires chaos and would favour a lightly-raced type with an edge in freshness.
Minella MaverickBobo BuckLabondanceTribal Thunder

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHRun Ted RunGame TheatreOcovango LadytBeyond Forgiven…Sharp As GlassHaveanothertryBobo BuckMinella MaverickLabondancetToo Hot To TrotTribal ThunderGoodmanconUrra Mass RockRememberwhatMisty ValentinehFuuslandGillane1. Run Ted Run2. Game Theatre13. Ocovango Lady4. Beyond Forgiveness14. Sharp As Glass3. Haveanothertry8. Bobo Buck7. Minella Maverick11. Labondance15. Too Hot To Trot12. Tribal Thunder5. Goodmancon16. Urra Mass Rock9. Rememberwhat17. Misty Valentine10. Fuusland6. Gillane
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Run Ted Run and Game Theatre will test each other hard for the lead in the opening mile; if Game Theatre's 171-day layoff leaves him blunt, Run Ted Run will slip clear and the race becomes a procession.
WATCH
Haveanothertry and Beyond Forgiveness need to secure prominent position within the first circuit; if either is forced back into midfield by the pace, their closing speed is sufficient to threaten but not to overcome a genuine front-runner at the line.
WATCH
The Ocovango Lady headgear change and the fade-in-finish history suggest the trainer is seeking improvement, but on this evidence she is a dangerous second-guessing piece in the market rather than a technical value play.
NOTE
Minella Maverick and Bobo Buck are unknown quantities (lightly raced, unrated, untested on this going) and will be lottery picks; they have no logical path unless the field tires dramatically.
NOTE
Too Hot To Trot and Sharp As Glass are both 150+ days absent and face a genuinely run, contested-pace race; their hold-up or intermediate profiles cannot overcome the freshness disadvantage and lengthy gaps.
4:18 — Kinisla Kerrymaid Rated Novice Steeplechase
2m1½f · Good · NOV · 5 runners
Apple's Of Bresil to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ocastle Des Mottes led; the map had Apple's Of Bresil in front.

Ocastle Des Mottes won at 2.25 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Apple's Of Bresil
Prominent · 2
Ocastle Des MottesLuker's Tipple
Midfield · 1
Sky Lord
Hold Up · 1
Some Song
Apple's Of Bresil is the sole confirmed front-runner here and will almost certainly dictate from flag to finish on a Good surface that has favoured pace all afternoon. With no realistic challenger willing or able to press the pace, the race will be run at Apple's Of Bresil's tempo—sustainable but entirely controlled—gifting the leader the luxury of a soft jumping rhythm and the chance to quicken when needed late on. Sky Lord, Ocastle Des Mottes, Some Song and Luker's Tipple are all prominent or hold-up types by nature, but the lightness of the field and the absence of genuine pace pressure means they will race further back than they might otherwise choose, unable to force their way into a contest that Apple's Of Bresil owns by default. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, and this is a textbook lone-pace scenario: the lead profile is heavily favoured.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Bresil leads all the way
70% probability
If Apple's Of Bresil settles in front and none of the field contests the pace.
Apple's Of Bresil will control the race with minimal pressure, build a commanding lead into the closing stages, and quicken clear when called upon, negating any late surge from runners who race out of their natural positions. Front-runners dominate this trip and going, and an uncontested lead is the highest-percentage shape in a small, talent-light field.
Apple's Of BresilLuker's TippleSky LordOcastle Des Mottes
B
Prominent challenger catches Bresil
18% probability
If one of the true prominent runners (Ocastle Des Mottes or Luker's Tipple) finds a way to stalk and outfinish Apple's Of Bresil in the closing stages.
A sustained challenge from a runner hitting full stride in the final furlong could exploit any complacency or tiredness in the leader, but both potential challengers are rated below the market standard for this trip and going, making a winning effort unlikely. The redistributed Sky Lord and Some Song lack the form and recency to mount a credible threat despite being naturally suited to this role.
Ocastle Des MottesLuker's TippleApple's Of BresilSome Song
C
Sky Lord mounts late raid
8% probability
If Sky Lord's Racing Post rating (126) and recent form (3-3-7) prove sufficient to reel in Apple's Of Bresil from what is effectively a hold-up position in this race.
Sky Lord races out of his natural prominent role here and has been absent for 60 days; hold-up horses underperform at this trip, and the combination of forced tactics and a soft lead makes this a low-probability outcome. Only Henry de Bromhead's skill at reviving freshened chasers and the horse's proven Good ground form prevent this scenario falling below 5 per cent.
Sky LordSome SongApple's Of BresilLuker's Tipple
D
Some Song's long-absence revival
4% probability
If Some Song, absent for 168 days, returns with a sparkling late run to overhaul a tiring Apple's Of Bresil.
A horse out of the racing game for nearly six months, now forced to race further back than it naturally does, faces insurmountable headwinds despite a single winning form line on Good ground. This is the least likely shape unless de Bromhead's training magic has done something extraordinary off the radar.
Some SongSky LordApple's Of BresilOcastle Des Mottes

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHApple's Of Bres…tOcastle Des Mot…Luker's TippleSky LordtpSome Song1. Apple's Of Bresil4. Ocastle Des Mottes2. Luker's Tipple3. Sky Lord5. Some Song
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Apple's Of Bresil has been off 112 days and races for an unproven novice yard; if it is rusty or unfit at the start, it could be mugged early and forced into a competitive pace that suits no one in this field.
WATCH
Sky Lord is a 126-rated horse racing out of position (hold-up instead of prominent) in a small field; do not assume its rating alone makes it a winning threat when the race shape works against its natural tactics.
NOTE
Ocastle Des Mottes won on Good just 13 days ago but will have no choice but to follow Apple's Of Bresil; watch whether Paul Townend can engineer a run in the straight or whether he is anchored in fourth or fifth.
NOTE
The going has been consistently Good all afternoon at Listowel; no edge for any runner on ground variation.
NOTE
Luker's Tipple is the freshest horse (2 days) but runs for a yard in poor form (0/31 last 14 days); do not back on fitness alone.
4:48 — Kinisla Handicap Steeplechase
2m1½f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Where's My Jet likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Coming Up Easy led; the map had Where's My Jet in front.

Net Boy won at 13.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Where's My Jet
Prominent · 4
Coming Up EasyNet BoyCostacurtaJalila Moriviere
Midfield · 3
Coral RiverWarriors WoodOne Last Tango
Hold Up · 6
The Banger DoyleWonlegCrowsatedappletartCappa HillBythesametokenDrumgill
Where's My Jet will likely set a steady, uncontested pace from the front, having led in 2 of its last 6 runs and with a forward-riding jockey in Paul Townend. Coming Up Easy and the prominent types (Net Boy, Jalila Moriviere, Costacurta) will race close behind in a three-wide battle, but none has the will or recent record to seriously pressure the leader — this field lacks a true pace rival. The race will be run at a sustainable tempo until the second mile, where the pace will depend on whether the Mullins horse finds reserves or fades as it has done in recent finishes. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, and a soft lead uncontested into the closing stages heavily favours horses that can close from midfield; however, the presence of genuine hold-up and prominent types (Warriors Wood, One Last Tango, Coral River) mapped into midfield because the field is too deep at those running positions means several runners will be forced to race out of their natural style. The shape favours a front-runner who can hold on, or a prominent racer with the tactical nous to challenge where pace dictates, over pure closers forced to come from too far back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Where's My Jet holds sway
58% probability
If Where's My Jet can sustain a workable gallop and resist the closing challenge of the stronger finishers.
The Mullins horse has led in recent outings and owns a willing jockey; it has faded in the past but has handicap weight relief (146 lbs) and a good-going surface where it has won at this trip. Front-runners win at strong odds here, and an uncontested lead into the straight is nearly impossible to peg back.
Where's My JetComing Up EasyJalila MoriviereNet Boy
B
Jalila Moriviere angles through
22% probability
If the pace collapses early and Jalila can slot into second or third, then strike in the final half-mile.
This Mark Walsh ride has won twice on good going and placed in 4 of 9 similar conditions; she is well-weighted at 165 lbs with De Bromhead's strong yard form and has the tactical flexibility to attack when the tempo shifts. Prominent racers are on par with the market here, and early placement is the key to this profile.
Jalila MoriviereCostacurtaWarriors WoodNet Boy
C
Closer finds room late
15% probability
If the pace quickens in the middle two furlongs and genuine hold-up types (Warriors Wood, Cappa Hill, The Banger Doyle) get a clear sight of the leaders at the foot of the straight.
Warriors Wood has won on good ground at this trip and placed in 4 of 5 recent runs; Cappa Hill and The Banger Doyle both have placed forms here. However, this scenario depends on horses that are truly suited to come late, not redistributed prominent runners forced back, and hold-up profiles underperform the market at this distance.
Warriors WoodCappa HillThe Banger DoyleBythesametoken
D
Coral River rallies from midfield
5% probability
If Coral River (absent 143 days) returns sharp enough to find a seam and pick off the tiring front-runner after 1m 6f.
A natural prominent racer has been mapped into midfield because the field is crowded at that position; its 143-day absence, lack of recent placement, and out-of-role positioning make this the lowest-probability scenario. Only a perfect storm (fast early pace that suits a midfield runner, plus a surprise recovery of match fitness) would make this work.
Coral RiverOne Last TangoNet BoyWonleg

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHWhere's My JetComing Up EasytNet BoytCostacurtaJalila MorivieretCoral RiverWarriors WoodOne Last TangopThe Banger DoyleWonleghCrowsatedapplet…tpCappa HilltBythesametokentpDrumgill1. Where's My Jet2. Coming Up Easy4. Net Boy5. Costacurta3. Jalila Moriviere8. Coral River6. Warriors Wood9. One Last Tango10. The Banger Doyle12. Wonleg13. Crowsatedappletart7. Cappa Hill11. Bythesametoken14. Drumgill
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Where's My Jet fades again in the final furlong as it has in recent runs—watch if the pace collapses early and allows Jalila Moriviere or Coming Up Easy to pounce.
WATCH
Warriors Wood and Coral River are natural prominent and hold-up types forced to race out of position; neither will get a clear run in midfield if the pace settles.
NOTE
Coming Up Easy returns off 49 days; if this layoff has dulled sharpness, the race falls to a midfield closer or an early pace escaper.
KEY
Net Boy's three-win record is immature (all within 65 days); any setback in form or rideability under pressure will expose limited racecraft.
5:18 — Kinisla Farm & Home Store (Pro/Am) Flat Race
2m · Good · DEFAULT · 13 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 20 September 2026.

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Listowel pace map, 20 September 2026 — PaceMap