Archive›Listowel · 21 September 2026

Listowel

21 September 2026 · 8 races

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1:23 — Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)

1m · Good · MDN · 11 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

1:53 — GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 18 runners

Vlhova likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Faoladh led; the map had Vlhova in front.

Majestic King won at 4.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Vlhova

Prominent · 5

Buttermere RidgeZaraahmandoMajestic KingFaoladhBrains

Midfield · 4

Green KiteLittle Miss PRed Hugh O'DonnellFan Club

Hold Up · 8

Stellar ViewWhiskey And BeerLocal LadJames HenrySummer SnowStorm AvertedGalley PointWegotogether

Vlhova is mapped to lead but led in only one of its last five runs and raced midfield last time; the yard and rider show forward tendencies but this is not a confirmed front-runner. Faoladh, Zaraahmando, Majestic King and Buttermere Ridge are genuine prominent types, but the field contains far more hold-up and midfield horses than the map can place at the rear, forcing several true closers (Green Kite, Little Miss P, Red Hugh O'Donnell, Fan Club) into middle positions. If Vlhova goes forward it will set a sustainable, uncontested pace with no real pressure from the midfield runners, but the redistribution of hold-up types into midfield slots means pace pressure is unlikely to develop and the front may prove easier to stay with than to catch. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, and a genuinely uncontested tempo plays to their advantage — but the uncertainty around whether Vlhova actually takes the lead, combined with the many hold-up types forced out of their natural positions, means this is no lay-down for a lead scenario. A closer arriving from midfield or rear could exploit a steady pace; equally, a midfield horse seizing a better position than it would normally find could surprise.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Closers land from midfield

38% probability

If the pace stays steady and Vlhova's grip on the lead is weak.

Hold-up types Green Kite, Little Miss P and Red Hugh O'Donnell are mapped to midfield but are genuine closers forced out of position; a controlled tempo gives them room to switch and strike late. Front-runners have won only 17.5% over this trip and going; closers benefit when the favourite path is congested and a clear lane opens late.

Green KiteLittle Miss PRed Hugh O'DonnellWegotogether

Prominent stalker takes it

28% probability

If Faoladh, Zaraahmando or Majestic King use their natural position to press or overtake Vlhova.

A genuinely competitive lead shapes a race where a prominent racer sitting second or third can pounce without needing a hard finish. Majestic King won once and placed three times over good ground; Faoladh and Zaraahmando both have placed form and can sustain an effort if the pace quickens.

FaoladhMajestic KingZaraahmandoButtermere Ridge

Vlhova makes all

19% probability

If Vlhova settles and the field accepts a steady, uncontested lead.

Once in front with no serious challenger, a confirmed front-runner or a horse given every chance to go forward can stay clear and grind it out; Vlhova is shown on the lead by the yard's forward habit even if it lacks a strong personal record. Front-runners have won 17.5% over this trip and good ground, a respectable strike rate when untroubled.

VlhovaButtermere RidgeFaoladhZaraahmando

Long-odds hold-up shock

15% probability

If pace collapses entirely and a back-marker like Storm Averted, Whiskey And Beer or James Henry finds clear ground late.

A genuinely muddling, soft-run race with no defined tempo and field spread across all sectors favours a genuine hold-up horse that was never asked to move early. Storm Averted, Whiskey And Beer and James Henry have each placed in recent turf runs and suit an unconsidered scenario.

Storm AvertedWhiskey And BeerJames HenryGalley Point

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Green Kite is named top selection in the strand scorecard and although mapped to midfield due to field compression, it is a genuine hold-up type whose natural late-run style may deliver at odds if pace remains steady and a clear lane opens in the final furlong.

WATCH

Wegotogether is flagged as danger in the strand scorecard and has won once over this trip and ground; Gavin Cromwell's yard shows 4 wins from 32 runs; monitor early if it settles in a handy midfield spot rather than being forced to come late.

NOTE

Vlhova is mapped to lead but led in only 1 of 5 recent runs and raced midfield last time; if it does not settle on the lead early, a prominent type like Faoladh or Majestic King could take over and change the race dynamic entirely.

WATCH

Little Miss P carries a fades-in-finish note and is a genuine closer forced to midfield; if the pace is genuinely steady, she may lack the final kick to prevail and could be outpointed by horses with more natural positioning or superior change-of-pace.

NOTE

Hold-up types Green Kite, Little Miss P, Red Hugh O'Donnell and Fan Club occupy midfield slots not by choice but because the field is light on closers; any of these could surprise if pace stays controlled, but only Green Kite has shown recent form solid enough to project with confidence.

2:23 — Tote, Never Beaten By SP Maiden

1m · Good · MDN · 17 runners

Keogie likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Storm Ready led; the map had Keogie in front.

Storm Ready won at 3.75 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Keogie

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 8

CasamoratiCrosborderallianceStorm ReadyAbiding MemoryAbair FaicPrivate PeacefulZelaniRed Cuillin

Hold Up · 8

Quick ReturnBlue VegaCuban LightsMothel AbbeyLegatoMiss IvorTijuanaNoble Irish

Keogie is the only confirmed front-runner on recent evidence (led last time), and with no other horse showing a pattern of taking the lead, it will likely dictate from the front in a sustainable, uncontested manner. The field is stacked with hold-up types — Private Peaceful, Zelani, Red Cuillin, and a clutch of maidens with limited or no racecourse experience — creating a paradox: far more closers and late-developing runners than can usefully operate from behind in a one-mile turf race where pace control matters. Keogie's lead will suit horses that race prominently or midfield, as the pace will be steady rather than truly strong, and mid-division runners will get a platform to improve into. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and ground, but this field cannot sustain pressure from behind given the lack of genuine pace-pressing types, so the race favours horses that can settle and move into a gap in the final quarter — runners drawn to land in the two-to-three lengths zone turning in. The field contains more hold-up specialists (Private Peaceful, Zelani, Red Cuillin) than the shape can accommodate; these will fight for position in the latter stages, likely spreading from gate 13 to 17, and only one will find clear running.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Midfield runners bridge the gap

48% probability

If Keogie sets a steady pace and one of the more-exposed runners from the middle order finds a gap two furlongs out

Casamorati, with prior form and a trainer in form, or an unexposed type carrying less weight can slip through as the closers battle; the steady pace means the race unfolds in tiers and suits the runner that was placed third or fourth two furlongs from home.

CasamoratiLegatoMothel AbbeyBlue Vega

Keogie makes all unchallenged

42% probability

If no horse presses Keogie into an unsustainable pace and it maintains a rhythm that prevents others from getting into the race

Keogie's lead claim rests on recent evidence and the absence of genuine pace pressure, so it sets the tempo and none of the hold-up types can muster a closing run strong enough to reel it in. Adam Caffrey's yard has form in these races, and at a modest rating Keogie is well-treated for a maiden that has shown it can handle the front.

KeogieMothel AbbeyCasamoratiLegato

Hold-up horse finds clear running late

7% probability

If the closers bunch up in the final furlong and one breaks away clean from the scrum in the dying strides

The compressed field of hold-up types means one will escape the traffic; Zelani, Private Peaceful or Red Cuillin could take advantage of a congested home straight if Keogie weakens and space opens. At 175 days since last run, Zelani is the highest-risk option despite having won a race before.

ZelaniRed CuillinPrivate PeacefulNoble Irish

Lightly-raced type emerges with experience

3% probability

If one of the three unexposed runners (Abair Faic, Crosborderalliance, Storm Ready) harnesses a late jockey move or settles better than expected

Maiden racing is volatile, and horses stepping up for the first time with tactical advantage can surprise; this is the outlier scenario for a breakthrough result. These three have never raced and carry the standard maiden assumption of unpredictability.

Abair FaicStorm ReadyCrosborderallianceLegato

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Keogie is the prediction for the lead, but it has led in only 1 of its last 6 runs; if it does not break cleanly or another horse presses it early, the race shape unravels and a middle runner or closer escapes.

WATCH

Private Peaceful pulled hard recently and is mapped into a midfield position where it may not settle; expect a difficult race if it races keenly and burns energy fighting the bit.

WATCH

The three hold-up types (Zelani, Private Peaceful, Red Cuillin) fighting for the same real estate in the final furlong risk cancelling each other out; watch whether any breaks free or all three bunch together and fade.

NOTE

Casamorati has form and trainer support but races out of natural position in midfield; if the pace is strong enough to pin back the closers and steady enough to let it stride, it has a platform to win.

NOTE

Four lightly-raced or unraced runners (Abair Faic, Crosborderalliance, Storm Ready, Legato) are unpredictable in a maiden; any can find a gap unexpectedly, but none has form evidence to support it.

2:55 — Liam & Joan Healy Memorial Handicap

1m1f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners

Expound likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Expound led, as the map showed.

Dragon Of Malta won at 6.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Expound

Prominent · 6

AmplitudeRoyal BonesSatono ChevalierDragon Of MaltaEarlsCala Bonita

Midfield · 6

No More PorterGreat MoverResurgenceJava WoodU S Navy SpearheadIamimmaculate

Hold Up · 5

UnterbergJustenziaKhormor SydTitaniumRed Autumn

Expound will set the pace from draw 2, but this is not a strong front-running scenario: the horse led in only 3 of 6 recent runs and was last time raced prominently rather than dominantly. The field contains substantially more genuine pace horses than can occupy the front or prominent positions — Java Wood, U S Navy Spearhead and Iamimmaculate are all true pace types redistributed into midfield because there is no room for them in their natural slots, and several will press or contest the lead as the race develops. This pressure will likely build through the middle stages and prevent Expound from dictating a soft rhythm. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, but a contested, pressured lead is not the same as an uncontested one. The race shape strongly favours horses that can sit close to a hot pace and pick up the pieces from two or three furlongs out — prominent racers and stalkers with positional speed will have the decisive advantage.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stalker picks up contested lead

48% probability

If Expound is pressed through the middle and the pace quickens, a horse tracking the action can strike when leaders fade.

Contested pace creates a breakneck rhythm that burns out the front two; a well-placed midfield runner with a strong closing kick will arrive fresh and finish fastest. Prominent racers and quality stalkers have consistently outperformed expectations over this trip and ground.

Great MoverRoyal BonesResurgenceEarlsSatono Chevalier

Prominent racer settles it early

28% probability

If one of the pace horses (Java Wood, U S Navy Spearhead or Iamimmaculate) breaks clear early and the field surrenders.

A prompt challenger takes over from Expound in the opening mile and controls the race before stalkers can mount a challenge. This requires one redistribution horse to overcome its mapped position quickly and the field to lack the collective speed to chase.

Java WoodU S Navy SpearheadIamimmaculateAmplitude

Expound makes all

12% probability

If Expound's yard and jockey dictate a sensible, uncontested gallop that no rival can trouble.

Expound must escape the pressure that the field's multiple pace types will apply, an unlikely outcome given the density of forward-going runners drawn around and behind it. Even if uncontested, the front-runner record here is vulnerable to late arrivalists.

ExpoundCala BonitaSatono ChevalierEarls

Hold-up horse arrives late

12% probability

If the pace is genuine and sustained enough that closers escape early pressure and time their run to the line.

Hold-up horses have significantly underperformed on this trip and going, and Titanium, Red Autumn, Unterberg and Justenzia lack the recent form to suggest they can reverse that trend. Only Titanium holds a recent win, and it comes from 129 days back.

TitaniumKhormor SydRed AutumnJustenzia

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Java Wood, U S Navy Spearhead and Iamimmaculate are all genuine prominent runners forced to sit middle or deep because the field contains too many pace types — if any escapes its mapped position and breaks clear in the second mile, the race shape collapses and a false favourite may arrive.|

WATCH

Great Mover and Resurgence both have positional advantage and pace-race pedigree to capitalize on a hot mid-race tempo; monitor whether either can move up smoothly into striking distance before the closing furlong.|

NOTE

Royal Bones is lightly raced, well-drawn in 16 and showed promise in recent runs; three-year-old jockey (Harnett) is claiming 3 lb, widening the margin if it settles prominently.|

KEY

Titanium re-emerges after 129 days and hold-up horses have significantly underperformed on this trip and ground; do not overweight its Strand danger tag unless it shows sharp work in the parade ring.|

NOTE

The pace will almost certainly be genuine from flag-fall given the density of forward-runners; monitor early sectionals to confirm whether Expound is truly pressured as expected or has managed to steal a march.|

3:30 — Kevin's Bar, Listowel/Exchange Inn, Ballybunion Handicap

1m4f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners

Canon Law to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Tanzanite Diamond led; the map had Canon Law in front.

Canon Law won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Canon Law

Prominent · 4

Mr BallynontyCascade CanyonTheoristWie Wunderbar

Midfield · 5

Rodeo BluesNottooshabbyTanzanite DiamondPriorstownParish Team

Hold Up · 8

MontevetroHenry HudsonLove OrchidQueen Of AstolatJp's ExpressEspritroyaleGood Man JackPremier Princess

Canon Law led in 4 of its last 6 runs and comes here off a lead last time, making it a confirmed front-runner with the ability to set a sustainable, uncontested pace from the front. The field contains multiple hold-up types—Rodeo Blues, Nottooshabby, Tanzanite Diamond, and Parish Team among them—but the map cannot accommodate all of them in their natural rear positions, so several are artificially shown in midfield; this congestion means Canon Law will likely escape to lead without serious pressure early on. Wie Wunderbar (prominent style, pulled hard recently) and Mr Ballynonty (prominent, 2 wins in 40 recent runs but genuine pace horse) may chase early, but neither is established enough to wrest control. The race shape strongly favours a held-up type arriving late, because the genuine closers are numerous, cramped, and well-drawn; Canon Law's modest lead claim combined with this surplus of back-runners creates a natural vacuum for a late-run winner from a field that would much rather come from behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Closer runs down leader

48% probability

If one of the field's many hold-up types finds its stride in the final furlong and outruns Canon Law's tiring pace.

Canon Law's slow tempo and the heavy concentration of closers in midfield—Rodeo Blues, Nottooshabby, Tanzanite Diamond—create the ideal setup for a horse switched to the outside late. The ground is good, the trip 1m4f is ideal for a stalker-to-closer, and Rodeo Blues' 2-2 record and 12/75 recent strike rate make it a natural beneficiary.

Rodeo BluesTanzanite DiamondNottooshabbyMontevetro

Canon Law holds on

35% probability

If Canon Law's recent lead-racing habit reasserts itself and the yard's light recent form (0/4) reverses.

Leading from start to finish against a scattered field of hold-up types gives Canon Law the platform to control the pace on good ground. Reese Holohan's 7-ride book and Brendan Duke's limited recent runners (0/4) inject uncertainty, but a horse that led last time and has form in front can still oblige in a small, nine-runner field lacking obvious pace pressure.

Canon LawWie WunderbarMr BallynontyTheorist

Midfield stalker picks up

12% probability

If one of the prominent or second-rank runners—Mr Ballynonty, Theorist, Wie Wunderbar, or Cascade Canyon—settles in the firing line and outkicks both the leader and the late runners.

A stalker that can sit second or third, follow the pace of Canon Law, and accelerate before the closers arrive would exploit the gap between leader and rear guard. Wie Wunderbar won last time and Theorist is well-weighted at 139 lbs, but both lack the race-craft or recent consistency to make this the likeliest outcome.

Wie WunderbarTheoristMr BallynontyCascade Canyon

Shock improver or maiden win

5% probability

If a lightly raced or out-of-form runner—Love Orchid (0/7 on good, last 25 days), Queen Of Astolat, or Premier Princess (both 0/10 on good)—breaks through in a muddled finish.

Queen Of Astolat and Premier Princess are under-raced at this trip and hold place claims, but neither has the form or recent tuning to be favoured. Love Orchid has run consistently without winning and is now 25 days off a win that does not exist; a surprise improvement is possible but not probable.

Love OrchidQueen Of AstolatPremier PrincessMontevetro

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Rodeo Blues could steal this late despite being shown in midfield; 2 wins and 2 places in 9 recent runs on good ground make it the most likely closer, and if Canon Law slows, it will arrive.

WATCH

Wie Wunderbar pulled hard recently and may race too freely early; if it over-races trying to chase Canon Law, it will burn out before the line, handing the race to late runners.

NOTE

The field holds six true hold-up types compressed into midfield positions—Parish Team, Priorstown, Nottooshabby, Rodeo Blues, Tanzanite Diamond, and others; whichever finds clear running room in the final 200 yards will have room to accelerate past slower pace.

NOTE

Canon Law's lead is built on habit and recent positioning rather than a confirmed front-running record (4 of 6, not 5 or 6); Holohan's weak record (7 rides) and the yard's 0/4 recent form weaken the case to press forward.

WATCH

Theorist has not run 1m4f on good turf in over 120 days and most recent starts were on softer ground at 10f; a long absence on an unfamiliar surface can catch punters out.

4:05 — John McGuire Handicap

1m4f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners

Rock Of Ireland to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Alphecca led; the map had Rock Of Ireland in front.

Handani won at 3.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

8 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Rock Of Ireland

Prominent · 5

EphesusTribal StarStar HarbourDaboyaHandani

Midfield · 3

ObscenityAlpheccaSharkeyboy

Hold Up · 8

This SongisforyouDay TraderSuperficialRoyal SaxoWar RoomsNarlitaEben ZaabeelSir Jeremy

Rock Of Ireland led in its last run and in 4 of its last 6 starts, making it a confirmed front-runner, though the 54-day absence presents some rust risk. Tribal Star, Star Harbour, Daboya and Ephesus carry prominent running styles and will likely press or track, but none has the lead record to contest the early position with authority. Rock Of Ireland should control the tempo from the front and build a sustainable pace uncontested through the middle stages. The field lacks a serious challenger to the lead and holds few speed pressures, meaning the favourite will dictate a controlled rhythm that suits patient stalkers and closers far more than those obliged to chase or race out of their comfort zone. This shape heavily favours runners who can settle in midfield or hold-up, track the steady tempo, and finish strongly in the final furlong—a race built for the closer.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Patient closer arrives late

58% probability

If Rock Of Ireland's long absence costs momentum and the pace remains steady enough for closers to deliver

War Rooms and Obscenity thrive in a rhythm-controlled race where the early pace does not blow apart; they sit midfield or hold-up, conserve energy, and pick off the tiring leaders in the final stages. Handani's win record on good ground and consistent placed finishes make it a ready threat to any front-runner, and it can afford to race in the pocket and attack when it counts.

War RoomsObscenityHandaniSuperficial

Stalking runner picks up

22% probability

If one of the prominent types (Daboya, Star Harbour, or Tribal Star) settles just off the pace and uses Rock Of Ireland's rust to launch a challenge at the furlong marker

A patient stalker skipping the early melee finds itself perfectly placed to run on into the straight as the lead weakens, combining the tempo control of the front-runner with the final-furlong speed of a closer. This profile suits the more experienced prominent racers with placed form on this ground.

Star HarbourDaboyaTribal StarSharkeyboy

Handani dominates from rear

14% probability

If Handani settles three-deep in midfield, relaxes through the turn, and explodes clear with one run to the line

Handani's recent form reads 2–2–3–1 on good ground, all at or near 10 furlongs; its consistency and win record (1 from 4 on the ground) give it a ready platform to arrive late. The lack of early pressure suits a horse that thrives on a clear run in the closing stages.

HandaniSuperficialObscenityWar Rooms

Rock Of Ireland holds on

6% probability

If the 54-day absence proves no obstacle and Rock Of Ireland finds enough leg to repel the late charge from behind

A confirmed front-runner with a track record of making the running must overcome ring rust and fend off the closers that the steady pace invites. Very few solo front-runners land the spoils in a wide-open handicap without a pace partner, and Devine's yard has not shown pattern-race winning form to suggest Rock Of Ireland can override this structural weakness.

Rock Of IrelandEphesusEphesusDaboya

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Rock Of Ireland's 54-day absence and the lack of early pace pressure; if it bounces back fresh and a pace partner materialises, the front-runner scenarios rise sharply.

WATCH

Tribal Star and Daboya noted to pull hard recently; both will test Rock Of Ireland's lead grip early, and if either unseats control, the midfield and hold-up cohort gain a chaotic tempo window.

WATCH

Handani's form (1–2–2–3 on good ground) is the best form reading in the race; back it hard in any scenario where Obscenity and War Rooms are forced to race out of their ideal roles.

NOTE

The Simon Crisford-trained cohort (none present) is absent; McGuinness (0 from 27 in 14 days) and Martin (1 from 6) show minimal current yard form, reducing the conviction of their runners' claims.

NOTE

Good ground throughout all races today; all runners' recent form is directly relevant, and no going concern arises—a straightforward pace-shape read with no ground reversals.

4:40 — Eric Browne Memorial Maiden

1m4f · Good · MDN · 13 runners

Teoest likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

The Austrian and Teoest led, as the map showed.

The Austrian won at 1.57 — led, where the map had it was held up.

6 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Teoest

Prominent · 1

Glowing Account

Midfield · 5

Ballybawn BelterBoy RacerBunglasha BoyGentle SodaPlace Your Regrets

Hold Up · 6

Gatsby GreyThe AustrianShirzanMichinagaNemorinoGalileo Springs

Teoest is the only confirmed front-runner, having led in its most recent outing, and will set a sustainable pace from the front with no serious pressure expected. However, the field contains two genuine hold-up types—Gentle Soda and Place Your Regrets—that the map cannot accommodate at the rear, meaning they will race out of position in midfield, and their natural tactical advantage is compromised by overcrowding at the back. Glowing Account and Ballybawn Belter will chase Teoest, but without a second front-runner to press early, the pace will be steady and controlable, allowing closers like Nemorino, Michinaga and The Austrian to settle and arrive late. This shape favours sustained runners and late movers over front-runners; Teoest's uncontested lead is a weakness, not a strength, as the race will be run to suit the closers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Closer picks up steady pace

48% probability

If Teoest's uncontested lead establishes a modest tempo and a runner from midfield or the back arrives fresh in the final furlong.

The long straight and moderate early pace create room for late-finishing types to make ground in the closing stages. Nemorino, Michinaga and The Austrian fit this profile and will benefit from the lack of early pressure.

NemorinoMichinagaThe AustrianBallybawn Belter

Ballybawn Belter stalks and wins

26% probability

If Glowing Account and Ballybawn Belter commit to pressing Teoest through the middle and one of them sustains it to the line.

Ballybawn Belter has form on good going and showed promise two runs ago; it will be ridden positively and can outstay Teoest if the pace quickens. This scenario requires the stalkers to take over early enough to tire the front-runner.

Ballybawn BelterGlowing AccountThe AustrianMichinaga

Teoest makes all

15% probability

If Teoest is allowed an easy lead, no one presses hard enough to test it, and it quickens in the straight.

Teoest led last time and has enough rating (OR 84) to hold its form, but the presence of other pace and the field's closers bias means this outcome depends entirely on the chosen jockey's tactics and the absence of a challenger. This is a weak lead scenario given the form and the field shape.

TeoestGlowing AccountBallybawn BelterThe Austrian

Outsider surprises in drift race

11% probability

If the early pace falters, the field spreads, and an unplaced runner from the wider draws (Boy Racer, Bunglasha Boy, Gatsby Grey) gains traction in the latter stages.

Lightly raced or out-of-form types can sneak through if the race is run without tempo and no clear winner emerges from the established contenders. This scenario is low probability but possible in a wide-open maiden.

Boy RacerGatsby GreyBunglasha BoyShirzan

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Nemorino represents the biggest danger if Teoest's uncontested lead settles at a moderate pace and creates a platform for late runners.

WATCH

Place Your Regrets and Gentle Soda will race out of their natural position; monitor whether they can generate momentum from the middle of the field or fade chasing a false rhythm.

WATCH

Glowing Account pulled hard in its last outing and may go off too hard chasing Teoest; monitor early pace and whether it can sustain effort to the line.

NOTE

Ballybawn Belter's recent form is solid and its jockey (Seamie Heffernan) is a strong pilot; expect it to be ridden positively in pursuit of the leader.

5:12 — Gerard Lynch Memorial Handicap

1m6f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners

Astelia to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Lauderdale King led; the map had Astelia in front.

Lauderdale King won at 3.50 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.

6 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Astelia

Prominent · 4

L'Un Deux TroisLouiescallInchiquin MaidCooley's Mist

Midfield · 5

Liberated LightLauderdale KingAlexa NextDeralo IrMiss Australie

Hold Up · 8

MedadthebookieAnnie's AngelQuiz TestAfloatWay Down SouthSoaring SunForlioSteps In The Sand

Astelia is the only confirmed front-runner here—led in five of its last six runs and raced prominently last time out—and will set a sustainable pace without pressure from rivals. The field contains genuine prominent and hold-up types (Deralo Ir, Miss Australie, Deralo Ir) positioned in midfield only because more rear-runners occupy the card than the map can accommodate at the back; they will contest for position in running. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, but the pace will not be ferociously fast given the lack of a second credible pressure horse, which removes the advantage of a runaway tempo and opens the race to stalkers and closers who can pick their moment in the final furlong. The most likely outcome is a contested lead-to-stalking race in which prominence and midfield position prove more valuable than an unchallenged front, and horses rated P or M style with good recent form (Cooley's Mist, Louiescall, L'Un Deux Trois, Liberated Light) have the platform to win from two or three lengths off the pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stalkers pick off Astelia

48% probability

If Astelia sets a steady but slow-breaking pace, stalkers and prominent racers peel away from her in the straight.

Cooley's Mist and Louiescall have won at 1m6f on good ground and rate form winners; they sit three to four lengths off the early lead and strike when the run opens. Liberated Light and L'Un Deux Trois are form-fit midfield types who can bridge that gap in the final two furlongs.

Cooley's MistLouiescallLiberated LightL'Un Deux Trois

Astelia makes all

35% probability

If Astelia quickens away two furlongs out and the field lacks a credible challenger at that moment.

Astelia's two-length victories at 1m6f in recent runs suggest she can bank speed early and hold sway, but she has no habit of winning and her recent form is two-place; she must accelerate before the stalkers close. Inchiquin Maid and Cooley's Mist lack the pace to follow her burst.

AsteliaLouiescallCooley's MistInchiquin Maid

Hold-up raid from behind

12% probability

If the early pace collapses and rear-runners find clear ground in the final furlong.

Forlio and Soaring Sun both have placed efforts on good ground over 12f and carry light weight; they need the front to falter badly and a clean run up the inside. This scenario weakens if the midfield is crowded and the leader maintains momentum to the line.

ForlioSoaring SunLouiescallCooley's Mist

Prominent racer from Inchiquin

5% probability

If Inchiquin Maid or another P-style horse finds a pocket three lengths off the early leader and quickens into it decisively.

Inchiquin Maid has won at 1m6f on good ground 49 days ago and the yard shows recent form; a long absence is a concern, and the form bar is weak. This is a low-probability upset shape that requires her to recapture the form she showed against weaker fields.

Inchiquin MaidL'Un Deux TroisLouiescallCooley's Mist

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Cooley's Mist is the Strand top pick and forms the lead of Scenario A; watch for her tactical position three-lengths off Astelia two furlongs out—if she has clear air and quickens, she is the principal threat.

KEY

Louiescall's form at 1m6f on good ground (one win, three places) matches Cooley's Mist and she is drawn middle; if she finds a pocket from draw 10 and settles, she can deliver a finishing kick at least as strong.

WATCH

Astelia's lead is not a certainty—she has no recent wins and the form is all place finishes—and if the pace is slow-burning, she may fold in the straight to fresher stalkers; do not back her lead scenario at short odds.

WATCH

Deralo Ir and Miss Australie are shown in midfield because the map lacked rear positions, but both are natural hold-up types; if they slip through traffic and find a clear run, discount the assumption that midfield horses will beat them home.

NOTE

Inchiquin Maid's 49-day absence is material; if she shows early pace work in the parade ring and the jockey settles her forward, she can win from the prominent position, but flat energy or a back-of-the-field start marks her as short of preparation.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 21 September 2026.

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