Archive›Listowel · 22 September 2026

Listowel

22 September 2026 · 7 races

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1:47 — SIS Irish EBF Maiden

7f · Good · MDN · 6 runners

Speakers Corner likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

All Talk led; the map had Speakers Corner in front.

Loughrea N Roll won at 1.91 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Speakers Corner

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

Churchill BondAll Talk

Hold Up · 3

How NowLoughrea N RollLake Lugano

Speakers Corner is the sole front-runner in the lead group with roughly a 15% chance of getting there; if it does, the pace will be uncontested and the race shaped to suit its tempo. Churchill Bond and All Talk both carry a 20–21% chance of forcing a lead but lack the recent record of going forward to make that confident — they will need positive riding to get there. The field is otherwise shaped as hold-up and midfield runners, and this is a maiden on Good ground over 7f at Listowel where front-runners have posted a strong record. The likeliest scenario is a competitive, roughly even early pace that lets the closers operate: either All Talk or Churchill Bond presses early without full control, or Speakers Corner edges to the front without needing to fight hard. Front-running profiles benefit most from this trip and going, but only if the lead is genuinely uncontested; a muddled, fought-for pace will suit horses settling in midfield and arriving late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested lead, front-runner wins

28% probability

If Speakers Corner or All Talk takes the lead early and controls a steady pace.

Front-runners have won at a strong rate over this trip and ground; an uncontested tempo handed to a forward racer narrows the options for closers and rewards tempo control.

Speakers CornerAll TalkChurchill BondLoughrea N Roll

Churchill Bond stalks and profits

26% probability

If Churchill Bond settles just off the pace in midfield and picks off tired leaders in the final furlong.

Churchill Bond has raced in midfield recently and carries the trainer's tactical habits; the Twomey yard goes forward often enough to set a tempo that suits a stalker.

Churchill BondLoughrea N RollSpeakers CornerAll Talk

Contested early, closer arrives late

31% probability

If All Talk and Speakers Corner fight for the lead and exhaust each other, letting a hold-up raider finish strong.

A muddled early pace and tired leaders in the closing stages favour horses that waited; Loughrea N Roll and Lake Lugano have winning experience in support roles over this distance.

Lake LuganoLoughrea N RollChurchill BondAll Talk

How Now or Lake Lugano shock

15% probability

If the pace is slow enough to set up a late, long-range effort from a horse that has shown little so far.

Both have faded in their only recent outing on identical ground over this trip; either would need a marked improvement in class and tactical luck to overcome that pattern.

How NowLake LuganoAll TalkLoughrea N Roll

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

If All Talk breaks smartly from stall 1 and Speakers Corner is slow away, All Talk could dictate an unchallenged lead; this reduces the field to a penalty kick for any front-runner.

WATCH

Churchill Bond has the tactical profile to sit in the pocket, but if the early pace fragments, the chance to stalk disappears and the midfield tightens into a melee.

NOTE

Lake Lugano's fade last time over this identical ground and distance is a concrete warning: it does not stay the trip under normal racing conditions, so a slow pace is required for redemption.

NOTE

Loughrea N Roll has already won a place-money run at Listowel over this distance on similar ground and offers reasonable odds as a hold-up second or third-place finisher in any shape.

KEY

The field is entirely maiden fillies and colts with minimal exposure; any small change in ground conditions or riding intent from O'Brien (who has two runners) could reshape the entire race dynamic late.

2:22 — Rose Hotel Handicap

7f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners

Sand Art likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Platino Bianco led; the map had Sand Art in front.

Platino Bianco won at 19.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

7 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Sand Art

Prominent · 6

Gloriously GlamSayonaraOppenheimerPlatino BiancoBrainsTamazu

Midfield · 3

MicassoZabriskie PointSceitimini

Hold Up · 8

James HenryShe's On The BallCisternaImperial DreamSurvivor's CodeThumama SandsTariffDistillate

Sand Art is the only confirmed front-runner in the lead group and has just a 11% chance of getting the lead, meaning the pace is likely to be uncontested if it does find the front. Gloriously Glam (10% to lead) and Sayonara (7%) offer modest rival pace, but neither is a strong forward type from recent form. The race will probably unfold with Sand Art either leading from the front and dictating an easy rhythm, or drifting back to mid-division if it does not break well or freely; in the latter case, one of the prominent types (Brains, Tamazu, Platino Bianco) will fill the void without much pressure to quicken. This field contains more natural hold-up horses than can all race at the rear — Sceitimini, Imperial Dream, Distillate and Survivor's Code are genuinely closer types squeezed into the midfield and back — so some will be forced to race from a position out of their comfort zone. Front-runners have a strong record over seven furlongs on good ground and places are widely distributed across running styles, but the lack of genuine pace competition means any horse that gets a clear run in the final furlong, whether from front or back, will have a chance. The likely shape favours a stalker or a hold-up horse that can find room in the closing stages and punch through tired leadership.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horse finds room late

38% probability

If pace remains steady or slow and a closer arrives with a strong finish in the final furlong.

Hold-up horses have placed well from this distance and going; Cisterna (2nd and 5th in recent runs over 7f-8f) and She's On The Ball (placed 3 of last 5 starts on good ground) have the form to strike late against weak pace. Platino Bianco's map position as top spot does not reflect that closers and stalkers have genuinely been placed by this race shape.

CisternaShe's On The BallTariffDistillate

Uncontested lead dominates

28% probability

If Sand Art breaks well, settles into an unforced lead, and nothing presses it from the start.

Uncontested leaders are rarely vulnerable over seven furlongs; Sand Art won its last outing and led in one of its last six runs, so this is achievable. The lack of genuine pace rivals means the field will follow in single file and speed stamina favours the horse that controls tempo.

Sand ArtPlatino BiancoBrainsSayonara

Stalker picks up pieces

24% probability

If Gloriously Glam or Sayonara competes for the lead but cannot get clear, allowing a stalker to pick them off.

Gloriously Glam (2 wins and 4 places from 15 good-ground runs) and Sayonara (2 places from 11 good-ground runs) have the form to engage up front but lack the consistency to hold on; a horse like Brains or Tamazu, tracking from prominent, can capitalise. Platino Bianco sits well-treated by the handicapper and has recently placed over similar distances.

BrainsTamazuOppenheimerGloriously Glam

Midfield type gets lucky

10% probability

If early fractions are chaotic and a midfield horse gets pushed to the front by accident or rides a swell of pace.

This is the least probable shape given the field structure, but Zabriskie Point (7th and 5th over 7f on good ground) or Micasso (1 win and 2 places from 8 good-ground runs) could find themselves in a handy position if the lead group fractures. Sceitimini's genuine hold-up style places it out of role in this field, making it difficult to engineer a winning position from the back.

MicassoZabriskie PointSceitiminiOppenheimer

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sand Art's 11% lead chance means an uncontested front-running scenario is possible but far from certain — monitor whether it breaks well from draw 4 or gets taken backward.

KEY

Cisterna is the top danger in a hold-up scenario; it has the form (2 wins, 3 places over this trip and ground) and positioning to arrive late if pace sets up soft.

WATCH

Sceitimini is a genuine hold-up type forced into midfield by field composition; it will race out of role and is unlikely to get into a winning position from draw 18.

NOTE

Gloriously Glam and Platino Bianco are the map's lead recommendations but neither is a confirmed front-runner — expect the race to be dictated by whoever settles in front, likely Sand Art or a secondary pace horse.

NOTE

Adrian McGuinness trains 3 runners (Zabriskie Point, Thumama Sands, Distillate) and has not won in 27 days — unlikely to profit here despite runners spread across the field.

2:57 — WTW Willis Towers Watson Handicap

7f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

La La Lucrative to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

La La Lucrative led, as the map showed.

Dragon Of Malta won at 4.33 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

9 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

La La Lucrative

Prominent · 4

MercurialNakamuraDragon Of MaltaAlissam

Midfield · 2

TolebiShe's Too Kool

Hold Up · 6

Goofy GanderApache OutlawGreen KiteMytimetoshineGavooGo Athletico

La La Lucrative is the only confirmed front-runner in the field, having led in three of its last six runs and last time out; Mercurial and Nakamura are prominent racers likely to race handy but not dictate the pace. If La La Lucrative gets the lead as expected, the race will be run at its tempo with minimal pressure — an uncontested gallop suiting a horse that can control and hold on. The field contains two genuine hold-up types (Tolebi and She's Too Kool) mapped to midfield because the race lacks the close finishers to accommodate them at the rear; they are unlikely to find their natural rhythm and should be discounted in shapes requiring them to deliver late. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, and an uncontested lead scenario plainly favours La La Lucrative's profile — but her measured chance of getting the lead is only 17%, a hard ceiling on how much confidence any front-running scenario can command.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Contested stalking, closers come late

38% probability

If Mercurial and Nakamura press La La Lucrative early and the pace quickens, tiring the leader into the final furlong.

A faster pace through the middle furlongs suits hold-up runners arriving with a strong closing effort; Dragon Of Malta and Go Athletico are positioned to pick up the pieces late. Horses with recent placed form on this trip and going — particularly Gavoo and Apache Outlaw — benefit from following cover and a fatigued favourite.

Dragon Of MaltaGo AthleticoGavooApache Outlaw

La La Lucrative leads and holds

17% probability

If La La Lucrative breaks well from gate 9 and Mercurial and Nakamura allow her to dictate an uncontested gallop.

Minimal pressure suits a front-runner with the pace and rating to control; La La Lucrative's two recent wins over this distance and ground are the evidence. She holds on without needing to quicken, exploiting the strong form-front record over 7 furlongs on good turf.

La La LucrativeAlissamMercurialNakamura

Mercurial moves up from third

26% probability

If Mercurial settles in the pocket off La La Lucrative's pace and finds room to challenge in the final furlong.

A prominent racer with trainer John J Nallen in form (1 win from 3 recent runners) and hands-on riding from Seamie Heffernan can pounce when the pressure eases. Mercurial's two placed finishes over this trip on good ground give it the tactical room to strike when La La Lucrative tires.

MercurialNakamuraAlissamDragon Of Malta

Nakamura angles through

19% probability

If Nakamura breaks well from gate 3 and settles in a stalking spot, using the handicap weight advantage and J.P. Murtagh's tactical nous to find a clear run late.

A prominent racer with placed form on 7 furlongs and good ground has the class (OR 79) to pick off tiring rivals in a slowly-run race. The low draw aids positioning, and Nakamura's recent form (8-7-2 last three) shows consistency over this trip.

NakamuraAlissamMercurialGavoo

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

La La Lucrative pulled hard last time: if the pace quickens early through Mercurial and Nakamura pressing, she may tire in the closing stages despite her front-running record.

WATCH

Tolebi and She's Too Kool are true hold-up types squeezed into midfield positions; monitor whether either can find late running room or whether they get shuffled back into dead ground.

WATCH

Alissam has not raced for 279 days — welcome back angles are appealing, but the lay-off carries risk of ring rust despite a perfect 3-3 record on return surfaces.

NOTE

Dragon Of Malta is a 9-year-old veteran winning last time over 9 furlongs on good; the step back to 7 furlongs is sharp, but his closing profile suits a contested pace scenario if others tire.

NOTE

Mercurial's most recent outing was a 9th on good ground: form has dipped, so backing depends entirely on whether trainer Nallen's recent upturn in results carries over and whether Heffernan's tactical ride can recover lost ground.

3:32 — Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes (Listed)

1m · Good · LST · 12 runners

Queen Of The Bogs likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Meriden and Iron Fist led; the map had Queen Of The Bogs in front.

Meriden won at 3.25 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Queen Of The Bogs

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 6

Flower ForestLa Tulipe NoireChica GuerreraQualixiaJagged EdgeBay Colony

Hold Up · 5

Iron FistCristal ClereMeridenMixed FeelingsIowa City

Flower Forest and Iron Fist will be the likely pace-setters if they test their luck in front, but neither is a confirmed front-runner in recent form — Flower Forest has led once in three runs and Iron Fist twice in seven. Queen Of The Bogs is marked down at just 5% to take the lead and has not led in its last two runs, so any pace contribution will be incidental. The field contains several genuine hold-up types (Meriden, Jagged Edge, Bay Colony, Iowa City, Mixed Feelings, Cristal Clere) but the map cannot show them all in position because Jagged Edge and Bay Colony are true hold-up racers forced into midfield by the weight of closers. If Flower Forest or Iron Fist take a loose lead, the pace will be moderate and suiting those happy to sit and pick them off late — but the most likely outcome is a contested midfield with no horse truly dictating, which rewards runners placed to arrive fresh in the final furlong. Hold-up horses have a strong record over this mile on good going and will benefit most from a lack of stamina-sapping pressure.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horse arrives late

42% probability

If no horse truly takes control and one of the rear-placed closers finds clear running inside the final furlong

Meriden and Iowa City have done their best work from off the pace on this trip; the soft midfield allows them to conserve energy and strike when the tiring pace-setters falter

MeridenIowa CityCristal ClereMixed Feelings

Flower Forest leads and holds on

28% probability

If Flower Forest breaks smartly from draw 3, settles in front and her superior recent form (recent win, two placings in three) proves too strong

A clear tempo suits a front-running three-year-old carrying only 126 pounds against older rivals; she can dictate the narrative and hold the closing horses at arm's length

Flower ForestChica GuerreraMeridenJagged Edge

Iron Fist paces the race

18% probability

If Iron Fist takes the lead from draw 2 with Shane Foley's positive tactics and finds enough to repel one late challenge

Iron Fist has two wins over this trip on good going and will set a gallop that plays to its own strengths; only the most determined closer will catch it

Iron FistMixed FeelingsFlower ForestQueen Of The Bogs

Bay Colony gets its hold-up run

12% probability

If Bay Colony, last out 140 days ago, finds its stride late and Bay Colony's trainer opts for a patient approach in a slowly-run race

The long absence is a risk, but if the race unfolds as a crawl, a fresh horse arriving with late momentum can slip through; however, the form here is stale and two runs over longer distances make the 1m trip uncertain

Bay ColonyQualixiaJagged EdgeFlower Forest

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Meriden has won its last two runs over this trip on good and is drawn in a neutral slot with a rider (Hayes) who respects his strengths; if the pace is moderate, it will be the most obvious threat in the closing stages.

WATCH

Jagged Edge and Bay Colony are natural hold-up types forced to race in midfield by the lack of front-runners; if either finds clear running late, it can cause a surprise, but both carry recency or fitness concerns that temper their appeal.

WATCH

Flower Forest is the only horse with clear recent winning form and could dictate if the race sets up passive; however, its three-year-old rating and 126-pound weight are not typical handicap advantages, and only class can carry it home if the closers arrive on cue.

NOTE

Queen Of The Bogs has been ridden positively in recent runs but has failed to lead, and asking it to dictate here against this field would require an atypical departure from its current pattern; treat it as a secondary pacer only.

NOTE

Qualixia is an unknown quantity on the going and trip, with just one run in nearly a year; a long absence and light recent racing suggest this is a prep run rather than a serious contender.

4:07 — MAC Hardware & Farm Supplies Irish EBF Rated Race

1m · Good · DEFAULT · 7 runners

Banks Of The Boyne likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Banks Of The Boyne and Margot Mae led, as the map showed.

Letmeentertainyou won at 26.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Banks Of The Boyne

Prominent · 2

OklahomaOristown Boy

Midfield · 1

Margot Mae

Hold Up · 3

HypiradonRomanceLetmeentertainyou

Banks Of The Boyne is the only confirmed front-runner and will likely press forward early, with Oklahoma expected to race prominently and Oristown Boy also keen to get into a forward position. If Banks Of The Boyne takes the lead—which happens in roughly one race in three for a horse with this record—the pace should be set uncontested at a fair tempo; the field lacks the depth of alternative pace-setters to pressure it early. This is a small field of two-year-olds on good ground at a mile, a trip that suits galloping runners more than closers, and the lack of obvious closing speed means that a horse getting clear control up front can very likely make it stick. Runners that can settle and stalk—holding third or fourth—are best placed to challenge, as the lead is unlikely to be pressed hard enough to set up a winning sprint.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Boyne controls from front

32% probability

If Banks Of The Boyne escapes to the lead and Oklahoma and Oristown Boy settle in behind without pressing

Banks Of The Boyne dictates a steady rhythm and uses its positional advantage over a mile; closers have no pace to pick off and stalkers lack the kick to reel in a clear leader.

Banks Of The BoyneOklahomaOristown BoyMargot Mae

Stalker picks up late

35% probability

If the pace is allowed to develop evenly and a midfield runner tracks the leaders before striking in the final furlong

Romance or Margot Mae, both capable on good ground and sharp at two, pick up the pieces when the lead begins to falter; a modest but honest pace suits runners with late turn-of-foot.

RomanceMargot MaeBanks Of The BoyneOklahoma

Oklahoma heads field

22% probability

If Oklahoma's recent placed form and Aidan O'Brien's positive tactics override Banks Of The Boyne's lead chances

Oklahoma settles prominently and builds a manageable lead by the furlong, using its class and recent readiness to stay clear. Banks Of The Boyne cannot close from off the pace and Letmeentertainyou or Hypiradon lack the pace to challenge a committed runner.

OklahomaOristown BoyRomanceMargot Mae

Boyne outrun in sprint

11% probability

If Oristown Boy pulls hard early, sets unsustainable fractions, and a closers' pace emerges with two furlongs to run

The field strings out and runners with sharp late action—Letmeentertainyou or Hypiradon—suddenly find room and finish faster than expected. Banks Of The Boyne tires having been tracked throughout and never gets clear air to respond.

LetmeentertainyouHypiradonRomanceOklahoma

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Banks Of The Boyne's lead is only likely in one race in three; if Oklahoma or Oristown Boy settles in front instead, the entire race shape changes and a stalker or closer becomes more dangerous.

WATCH

Oristown Boy pulled hard at its last start and the jockey report is flagged; if it does so again early, it risks setting an unsustainable pace that helps only tired closers, not its own finishing chances.

NOTE

This is a small field with no obvious pace press, so whoever leads—whether Banks Of The Boyne or an alternative—will have an easier time controlling the race than typical for a mile.

NOTE

Romance holds the standalone form advantage (one win in four recent runs) but is mapped to hold-up and will depend entirely on a pace honest enough to catch from behind.

NOTE

The good ground is consistent across all four Listowel cards today, removing any ground excuse; the race will be decided by running style and who can handle a mile at two years old.

4:41 — Listowel Arms Hotel Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Exquisite Acclaim likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Exquisite Acclaim led, as the map showed.

Morehampton won at 4.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Exquisite Acclaim

Prominent · 2

Galileo NoirEddie G

Midfield · 3

Goal ExceededVictory TipMorehampton

Hold Up · 3

GlyndwrHighbury See SeeSon Of Beauty

Exquisite Acclaim is the sole confirmed front-runner in this field and holds a 21% chance of dictating the pace from the front, but the race contains a surplus of natural prominent racers—Victory Tip, Morehampton, Galileo Noir and Eddie G—who cannot all secure that position and will be squeezed into midfield roles they do not naturally favour. If Exquisite Acclaim does lead, it will set an uncontested pace; if it fails to get there, the prominent types will scramble for position and create a messy mid-race, allowing late-runners to arrive fresh. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, but the absence of a clear, contested pace—and the presence of hold-up types with recent form—favours a runner that can sit midfield, switch off, and strike in the closing stages rather than one forced into an early battle it cannot sustain.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Closer picks up loose pace

38% probability

If Exquisite Acclaim either fails to get the lead or fades in the manner it recently did, and the prominent types burn energy jostling for position in midfield

Closers benefit when the pace is soft and contested only among runners racing out of their zone; Son Of Beauty and Glyndwr have the room to strike late without early exertion. Hold-up horses win only 5.5% of races on average, but this is the rare shape where midfield chaos creates the opportunity.

Son Of BeautyGlyndwrHighbury See SeeGoal Exceeded

Exquisite Acclaim leads throughout

21% probability

If Exquisite Acclaim breaks well from draw 3, reaches the front without significant challenge, and holds on through the closing stages

Its 21% measured chance of getting the lead is the ceiling for this scenario; it has faded in its last two finishes, but it led in three of six recent runs and the uncontested tempo suits a horse that has shown the ability to control races. This shape rewards front-runners and happens only if Exquisite Acclaim executes.

Exquisite AcclaimEddie GGoal ExceededVictory Tip

Eddie G presses and wins

20% probability

If Eddie G or Galileo Noir secure the prominent position after Exquisite Acclaim weakens early, and one of them has the pace to pick off the leader in the closing furlong

Eddie G has won twice over this trip on good ground and has form with jockey Reese Holohan; a genuine prominent racer mapped to midfield because the field is crowded at that level, it can shift up one gear if the pace allows. Front-runners and prominent racers have posted strong records over this distance and ground.

Eddie GGalileo NoirGoal ExceededMorehampton

Victory Tip or Morehampton surge

21% probability

If the two most consistent recent runners—Victory Tip (won 1 of last 6, second once) and Morehampton (two placings in five starts)—break from their imposed midfield slots and find room to charge home as the pace loosens

Both are natural prominent racers forced into central roles by the congestion of pace in this field; they have better recent finishing records than the named pace-setters and can exploit a tiring leader. This mirrors the redistribution problem in the race itself: more quality at the front-end than the map can accommodate.

Victory TipMorehamptonEddie GGoal Exceeded

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Exquisite Acclaim has faded in two of its last three runs despite leading—watch whether it has the condition to sustain a front-running effort or if that weakness opens the race to Eddie G or the closers.

WATCH

Victory Tip and Morehampton are both genuine prominent racers forced into midfield roles by the crowded pace in this field; if either finds daylight entering the final furlong, they carry much stronger form than their drawn position suggests.

NOTE

Son Of Beauty and Glyndwr offer value as hold-up types only if the prominent runners waste energy in a scramble for position; a straightforward early pace controlled by Exquisite Acclaim neutralises their closing angles.

KEY

Eddie G's jockey Reese Holohan has seven recent rides but no standout record; pair this against its two wins from seven runs on good ground at this distance to assess its striking chance if Exquisite Acclaim tires.

NOTE

Front-runners have won 17.5% over this trip and ground—well above the market expectation—but only Exquisite Acclaim is a confirmed front-runner; the scenario depends on its ability to repeat recent fades or reversion to form.

5:16 — Jet, Peggy & Eamonn O'Carroll Memorial Handicap

1m6f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Count Bezukhov likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Huff'n'puff led; the map had Count Bezukhov in front.

Count Bezukhov won at 2.88 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Count Bezukhov

Prominent · 2

Huff'n'puffSunrush

Midfield · 1

Mergus Serrator

Hold Up · 4

PossumLord AusBay of StarsVantage Code

Count Bezukhov will be the main pace outlet, with Huff'n'puff and Sunrush likely to race prominently in support, though none is a confirmed front-runner and the pace should be uncontested if Count Bezukhov settles on top. The field holds more hold-up types than can all secure their natural rearward position—Mergus Serrator, Bay of Stars, Vantage Code, Lord Aus and Possum are all genuine closers squeezed into a midfield or held-up role, meaning any of them that land a forward pitch will add pace pressure early. On a good Listowel surface that has favoured front-runners and prominent racers across 1m6f, a contested pace set by two or three horses will suit stalkers and early movers far more than a cavalry charge home from deep; the over-supplied hold-up contingent will find room hard to come by, and the front end's lack of a dominant mover means it can be picked off by mid-division runners ready to make a move from 2f out.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stalker picks off contested pace

38% probability

If Huff'n'puff or Sunrush force a genuine gallop early and a stalker from mid-division reads it right

Front-runners and prominent racers have a strong record here over this trip, but they fade when properly challenged; a runner like Bay of Stars or Vantage Code—both proven on good ground at this distance—can sit four or five lengths back, let the pace do its work, and strike 2f from home as the weary leaders falter. The hold-up types benefit most from a bunched, competitive pace that wears out those in front without leaving room for deep closers to make ground.

Bay of StarsVantage CodeHuff'n'puffSunrush

Count Bezukhov leads and dictates

26% probability

If Count Bezukhov gets the lead uncontested and no rival presses hard enough to disrupt its rhythm

Racing out of its natural prominent role at the head of affairs is not ideal, but the horse led last time and has decent recent form; if allowed to bowl along at a steady tempo without serious challenge, it can grind out a narrow margin over a field that lacks a serious challenger. Given this field's depth of hold-up runners unable to get their preferred position, Count Bezukhov's unresisted lead becomes unexpectedly valuable.

Count BezukhovLord AusBay of StarsVantage Code

Possum surprise from traffic

20% probability

If Possum can weave through a congested middle and find clear air inside the final furlong

Possum is three weeks fresh, has won at 12f on good ground, and jockey Shane Foley is sharp at making tight gaps in small fields; trailing from the gate in a field starved of middle-distance pace-focussers leaves room for a lateral raid. This is the sort of race where a runner racing tactically out of the usual mould catches everyone expecting a conventional battle up front.

PossumMergus SerratorCount BezukhovHuff'n'puff

Mergus Serrator rare long runner

16% probability

If Mergus Serrator gets an unexpectedly clear mid-division berth and sprints past tiring pace-setters in the straight

A true hold-up horse mapped to midfield because the field is stacked with closers, Mergus Serrator has the form and profile to punish a slow-burn race, but its lack of a recent win and the traffic jam it will face in the middle make this outcome dependent on good fortune with room. This is the least likely outcome because that room rarely materialises in a field this deep in hold-up runners.

Mergus SerratorPossumBay of StarsSunrush

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Vantage Code and Bay of Stars are the most dangerous hold-up runners if the pace builds naturally from 4f out, both proven at this distance and ground with recent form.

WATCH

Mergus Serrator, despite strong closing form, will find itself hemmed in by the sheer number of hold-up horses in this field and is unlikely to get the clear run it needs.

NOTE

Lord Aus pulled hard 22 days ago—watch whether headgear or a patient ride from Ben Coen can settle it; an over-racing template will waste energy in a tactical race.

NOTE

Sunrush is the only real danger to Count Bezukhov if an early tempo builds, but the horse has limited winning form at 1m6f and may not have the class to make a decisive move late.

KEY

Count Bezukhov at 29% to lead is vulnerable to being picked off by stalkers if it cannot build a clear lead by 3f out; a contested middle mile will suit the closers far more.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 22 September 2026.

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