2:06 — Anglo Printers Remembering John H. Kierans Mares Hurdle
2m½f · Good · DEFAULT · 8 runners
Run For Mahler to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Run For Mahler and Chosen Comrade led, as the map showed.
Murcia won at 2.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Run For Mahler
Prominent · 2
MurciaChosen Comrade
Midfield · 3
Swing DavisKatherineOn A Diamond
Hold Up · 2
Grainne A ChroiRoyal Hollow
Run For Mahler will lead from the start with no obvious pace pressure in this small field, allowing her to dictate terms at a sustainable gallop. Murcia and Chosen Comrade may track in behind but neither is keen enough to challenge early. The lack of pace pressure means the race will likely develop into a sprint from 2f out when the hold-up horses like Grainne A Chroi and Royal Hollow try to make their moves. This steady pace followed by a sharp acceleration strongly favours horses with tactical speed who can close quickly rather than those needing a truly run race.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Lead Wins
45% probability
If Run For Mahler gets an easy lead and kicks clear turning for home
The lack of pace pressure allows her to conserve energy and find extra when challenged. Her proven course form and 218-day break could have her primed for a big effort.
Run For MahlerMurciaChosen ComradeRoyal Hollow
B
Late Closer Prevails
35% probability
If the pace becomes pedestrian and one of the hold-up horses has superior finishing speed
Grainne A Chroi or Royal Hollow benefit from the slow pace to unleash a devastating late kick. Their class tells in a sprint finish from the back.
Grainne A ChroiRoyal HollowMurciaRun For Mahler
C
Prominent Tracker Strikes
15% probability
If Murcia or Chosen Comrade improve their position turning for home
The Mullins mare uses her class advantage to gradually wear down Run For Mahler in the final furlong. Her Grade 1 winning form gives her the edge in a sustained drive.
MurciaChosen ComradeRun For MahlerGrainne A Chroi
D
Surprise Package
5% probability
If the pace completely collapses and favours an unconsidered runner
Royal Hollow's recent chase win could have brought improvement that isn't reflected in her hurdle rating. Her versatility between codes might be the key factor.
Royal HollowSwing DavisKatherineOn A Diamond
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Run For Mahler needs to be monitored for over-racing early given her front-running style and long absence
WATCH
Grainne A Chroi showed pulling up tendencies last time which could recur if not travelling well
WATCH
Murcia's market move will be crucial given her inconsistent recent form despite highest rating
NOTE
Royal Hollow's jumping between hurdles and chases could indicate which discipline suits better
NOTE
Swing Davis requires strong market support given Elliott's record with point-to-point graduates returning from breaks
2:41 — Join The Listowel Races Supporters Club Maiden Hurdle
2m½f · Good · MDN · 17 runners
3 vying for the leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Touch The Moon led; the map had Gomez Addams and Phoenix Arizona and Approval in front.
Gomez Addams won at 2.62 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 3
Gomez AddamsPhoenix ArizonaApproval
Prominent · 6
Bells GroveBeechingstokeTouch The MoonPenny ExpressBallinvasas BestDesertmore Charm
Midfield · 3
Small FryStraightenyourhandCalzaghi
Hold Up · 5
SuresuresurePinkarizonMc SwaggerForlioDar Toungi
Gomez Addams, Phoenix Arizona, and Approval will force a strong gallop from the outset in this competitive 17-runner maiden hurdle. With three confirmed front-runners and several prominent racers like Penny Express, Bells Grove, and Touch The Moon likely to track close, the early pace will be relentless over the extended 2m4f trip. The stamina-sapping tempo will expose the weaker stayers and set up a tactical finish where positioning becomes crucial. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can conserve energy early and produce a sustained finish when the pace collapses.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Strong Gallop Collapse
45% probability
If the three leaders go too fast and fade from 2f out
The relentless early pace takes its toll as Gomez Addams, Phoenix Arizona and Approval weaken, allowing patient hold-up horses to sweep past. Small Fry and Touch The Moon benefit most from their energy-conserving tactics.
Small FryTouch The MoonDar ToungiMc Swagger
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
30% probability
If Penny Express or Touch The Moon track the pace perfectly and kick clear
The experienced maiden hurdle performers use their course knowledge and tactical speed to position ideally behind the leaders before striking. Their stamina proves superior to the hold-up horses who get too far back.
Touch The MoonPenny ExpressBells GroveSmall Fry
C
Front Runner Survives
15% probability
If Gomez Addams shows his bumper class and stays strongly
The Henry De Bromhead-trained gelding proves his Galway festival bumper win was no fluke by dominating from the front. His superior class allows him to dictate throughout and resist all challengers in the closing stages.
Gomez AddamsPhoenix ArizonaTouch The MoonPenny Express
D
Outsider Ambush
10% probability
If the pace completely collapses and a big-priced hold-up horse strikes late
The combination of strong early pace and large field creates chaos, allowing a patient outsider to weave through and capitalise. Forlio or Dar Toungi emerge from the pack to claim surprise victory.
ForlioDar ToungiCalzaghiPinkarizon
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Gomez Addams must prove his Galway bumper win wasn't a one-off after disappointing subsequent runs
WATCH
Phoenix Arizona and Approval could set unsustainable fractions if they engage in an early duel
NOTE
Touch The Moon's proven stamina on good going makes him dangerous if tracking the pace perfectly
WATCH
Small Fry needs to overcome modest previous hurdle form despite his Flat credentials
NOTE
Penny Express jumping left throughout when pulled up at Clonmel suggests technique concerns remain
3:16 — Eamon Foran Memorial Maiden Hurdle
2m4½f · Good · MDN · 9 runners
Burning Ability to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Withabitofluk and Speed For Fun and Ajp Falco led; the map had Burning Ability in front.
Burning Ability won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Burning Ability
Prominent · 2
Jack Owen JackWithabitofluk
Midfield · 3
Speed For FunRoyal ApprovalCarajillo
Hold Up · 3
PegasuslaneBlack DakotaAjp Falco
Burning Ability will lead from the start with his confirmed front-running style, setting an honest but manageable gallop over this extended trip. Jack Owen Jack and Withabitofluk should track prominently behind the leader, while the hold-up horses Royal Approval, Speed For Fun, and Black Dakota will be positioned towards the rear. With only one confirmed pace-setter and no obvious pressure from prominent racers, this will develop into a test of stamina in the final half-mile. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours horses with finishing kicks who can position handily and have the class to quicken when it matters.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustainable Pace Finish
45% probability
If Burning Ability sets an honest but uncontested lead through the early stages
The race becomes a staying test from the final hurdle with plenty left in the tank for the finish. Horses with class and a turn of foot from prominent positions will have every chance to show their quality.
Speed For FunWithabitoflukJack Owen JackRoyal Approval
B
Front Runner Dominates
30% probability
If Burning Ability's fitness edge and front-running tactics prove too much for this maiden field
His December hurdle form looks solid for this grade and he can utilize his 109-day break to maximum effect. The lack of early pace pressure allows him to dictate terms and kick clear approaching the last.
Burning AbilityJack Owen JackWithabitoflukSpeed For Fun
C
Late Charge Succeeds
20% probability
If the hold-up horses can overcome their tactical disadvantage through superior class
Royal Approval's Flat background provides stamina reserves while Speed For Fun brings Mullins' French import credentials. Their ability to finish strongly becomes decisive despite giving the leaders a significant start.
Royal ApprovalSpeed For FunBurning AbilityBlack Dakota
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
5% probability
If Burning Ability fails to maintain his gallop and the race becomes a crawl
The lack of alternative pace-setters creates a muddling affair where any horse can win from anywhere. Form lines become unreliable and the most battle-hardened performer can capitalize on the tactical confusion.
Black DakotaCarajilloAjp FalcoPegasuslane
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Burning Ability must prove his fitness after 109 days off and avoid the tailed-off effort he produced in February
WATCH
Speed For Fun's running style remains unclear from French Flat form but Mullins rarely runs no-hopers in these contests
NOTE
Jack Owen Jack showed improvement at Kilbeggan and could benefit from the step up in trip if building on that effort
WATCH
Withabitofluk has been bitterly disappointing over hurdles despite showing ability in bumpers for De Bromhead
NOTE
Royal Approval needs to overcome a 224-day layoff but his Flat stamina could prove decisive if fit enough
3:51 — John Thomas McNamara Handicap Hurdle
2m4½f · Good · HCAP · 21 runners
Sean Mc likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Le Fanu won at 12.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.
7 of 18 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Sean Mc
Prominent · 6
King FerdinandJay Pee MDunany PointSekakarmaMollys DollyJohnny M
Midfield · 8
Loughrask JetBravemans BounceLe FanuTellmemamemaDoyen OgMove It On OverSonny FellaStrand Street Lass
Hold Up · 6
Ask The BookieWhere Are You NowIlltakehimmyselfPoppyconJaadilMr Eastwood
Sean Mc is the only confirmed front runner in this 21-runner field and should get an uncontested lead from the start, with prominent runners like Jay Pee, King Ferdinand, and Mollys Dolly settling behind rather than pressuring. The lack of pace pressure means Sean Mc can dictate comfortable fractions through the early stages before the large field of hold-up horses try to mount challenges from the back. With 15+ runners adopting hold-up tactics including Jaadil, Poppycon, and Where Are You Now, traffic problems are inevitable in the straight. This race shape strongly favours the front runner and prominent racers who can avoid the scramble behind.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Front Runner Dominates
45% probability
If Sean Mc gets soft fractions and kicks clear turning in
The lack of early pace allows Sean Mc to save energy and pull clear when the field gets in each other's way. His stamina edge over 2m4½f proves decisive as hold-up horses struggle for racing room.
Sean McJay PeeMollys DollyKing Ferdinand
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
30% probability
If Jay Pee or Mollys Dolly can track Sean Mc without traffic issues
The prominent horses get first run on the leader while the hold-up brigade still face congestion problems. Superior class tells in the final furlong with clear racing room.
Jay PeeMollys DollySean McDunany Point
C
Hold-Up Horse Gets Lucky
15% probability
If Jaadil or Poppycon finds a clear passage through the field
One of the classier hold-up horses manages to weave through without checking and arrives with a strong late run. Their superior ability overcomes the tactical disadvantage.
JaadilPoppyconWhere Are You NowIlltakehimmyself
D
Complete Pace Collapse
10% probability
If Sean Mc stops suddenly and creates a cavalry charge finish
The uncontested leader hits the wall dramatically, leaving a bunched field to fight it out. Chaos ensues with multiple hard-luck stories and an unconsidered runner benefits from the scrimmaging.
TellmemamemaSekakarmaDunany PointLe Fanu
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Sean Mc getting away with soft fractions early - if unchallenged he could prove very hard to peg back
WATCH
Traffic chaos in the straight with 15+ hold-up horses converging simultaneously from the rear
WATCH
Jay Pee and Mollys Dolly getting prominent positions early to avoid the inevitable scrambling behind
NOTE
King Ferdinand's market move after 519 days off would be significant given his ability when fresh
NOTE
Where Are You Now and Johnny M as reserves - if either gets in they bring different tactical dimensions
4:26 — Insurance Wise Handicap Hurdle
2m4½f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners
Lead contested: Earl Neigh v Big DisputeHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Rockonliam won at 5.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Earl Neigh and Big Dispute will dictate from the front, with Earl Neigh the more natural leader but Big Dispute equally capable of forcing the issue. With multiple prominent runners like Rockonliam, Garnacho, and Chanceawetmorning sitting just behind, this creates a strong gallop throughout the 2m4½f trip. The pace will be honest but not suicidal, allowing the race to develop into a proper staying test from the second-last hurdle. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and those who can produce a sustained finish, as the early pace will set up perfectly for closers to sweep past tiring leaders in the final furlong.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Closers Sweep Past
55% probability
If the early pace is honest and the leaders tire from two out
The strong gallop will find out Earl Neigh and Big Dispute, while High Court Cave and Hamsiyann can use their hold-up style to devastating effect. One And Only could also benefit despite his poor recent form if the race falls apart late.
High Court CaveHamsiyannOne And OnlyElusive Ogie
B
Prominent Prevails
25% probability
If the pace is moderate and allows tactical horses to strike
Chanceawetmorning and Rockonliam can position perfectly behind the leaders and have enough pace to quicken when it matters. Their class and tactical speed will prove decisive in a finish where the leaders don't completely collapse.
ChanceawetmorningRockonliamGarnachoTir Og
C
Front Runner Survives
12% probability
If Earl Neigh or Big Dispute can dictate at a steady tempo
The leader gets an easy time of it and has enough left to resist late challengers on this stiff track. Big Dispute's recent form revival makes him the more likely beneficiary if the pace scenario develops favorably.
Big DisputeEarl NeighFalco BlitzBop Wont Stop
D
Complete Collapse
8% probability
If the early pace becomes unsustainably fast between the leaders
The entire field comes back to the closers in dramatic fashion, allowing even unfancied hold-up horses to get competitive. This would suit any horse with a devastating turn of foot who has been held up out the back.
One And OnlyHamsiyannHigh Court CaveTherellbguddaysyet
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Earl Neigh and Big Dispute could set suicidal fractions if they engage in early battle, playing into closers' hands
WATCH
High Court Cave has ideal hold-up style for this pace but amateur rider Mr O McGill may not get ideal position
NOTE
Chanceawetmorning's unbeaten record for Elliott makes him dangerous if positioned behind the early pace
Rockonliam's 153-day absence could prove beneficial if this develops into genuine staying test
5:00 — In Memory Of Josephine Lyons 110 Series Final Handicap Hurdle
2m7½f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners
Whatsavailable likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Ceroc led; the map had Whatsavailable in front.
Embrace The Day won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.
1 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Whatsavailable
Prominent · 3
Somersby RoostSilent GuardianCeroc
Midfield · 4
ShesakindofmagicBrideswell LadWay Down SouthRhythmic Tune
Hold Up · 3
Only For Our ManIts Not Over YetEmbrace The Day
Whatsavailable will take the field along as the only confirmed front runner, setting a sustainable gallop that shouldn't be overly demanding early in this handicap. The prominent runners Ceroc, Brideswell Lad, Somersby Roost, Way Down South, Shesakindofmagic, and Silent Guardian will track closely behind, while the hold-up horses Only For Our Man, Its Not Over Yet, Rhythmic Tune, and Embrace The Day will settle further back. With Whatsavailable prone to fading in the finish and no real pace pressure, this sets up perfectly for the hold-up horses who can capitalize on a strong gallop and finish powerfully. The tactical verdict clearly favors the hold-up profile who can exploit the honest pace and Whatsavailable's finishing limitations.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate
55% probability
If Whatsavailable sets honest pace but fades as expected in final furlong
The sustained gallop will perfectly suit the patient tactics of the hold-up brigade who can unleash late runs. Only For Our Man and Rhythmic Tune are best positioned to exploit this scenario with their strong finishing kicks.
Only For Our ManRhythmic TuneIts Not Over YetEmbrace The Day
B
Prominent tracker prevails
25% probability
If one of the prominent runners can stay close enough to Whatsavailable without overexerting
Somersby Roost or Way Down South could strike if they travel well in behind the leader and have enough left to capitalize when Whatsavailable weakens. Their forward positions give them first strike capability before the hold-up horses arrive.
Somersby RoostWay Down SouthCerocShesakindofmagic
C
Whatsavailable holds on
12% probability
If the pace becomes moderate and Whatsavailable conserves energy for a sustained finish
Despite his fading tendency, a tactical ride could see him maintain just enough of his early advantage. The longer trip may actually help him sustain his effort better than over shorter distances.
WhatsavailableSilent GuardianWay Down SouthSomersby Roost
D
Pace collapses completely
8% probability
If Whatsavailable goes too slow early and prominent runners get restless
A messy tactical affair could develop with multiple horses trying to improve position simultaneously. This chaos would likely favor the most experienced campaigners who can navigate the traffic.
Brideswell LadCerocSilent GuardianIts Not Over Yet
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Whatsavailable could surprise if he settles better than usual and conserves energy for sustained finish
WATCH
Only For Our Man's 7lb penalty may prove insufficient to stop him if the pace sets up perfectly
NOTE
Somersby Roost faces significant 10lb rise but her easy Cork win suggests she may handle the hike
WATCH
The prominent runners could get drawn into a mid-race battle if Whatsavailable goes too steadily
NOTE
Several 5lb and 7lb claiming jockeys add pressure in tight handicap where every pound counts
5:33 — Oliver Broderick (Pro/Am) Fillies INH Flat Race
2m½f · Good · DEFAULT · 9 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.