Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:15 — Croom House Stud Handicap
6½f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 16 runners
Amicitia to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Mint Man led; the map had Amicitia in front.
Unauthorized won at 7.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.
2 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Amicitia
Prominent · 6
Dragon Of MaltaI Bid You AjouFelix SomaryAlfred TennysonMercurialMint Man
Midfield · 4
Ribble EmperorMickey The SteelAurora NovaFamed Again
Hold Up · 5
Little EmpireUnauthorizedInishfallenAltimaraApache Outlaw
Amicitia is the only confirmed front runner in this large field, meaning she can dictate terms without pressure through comfortable fractions. With one leader and multiple prominent racers like I Bid You Ajou, Mint Man and Alfred Tennyson likely to track behind, the pace will be sustainable rather than cut-throat. The large field of 16 runners combined with yielding ground will create a searching test in the final two furlongs as runners fan out for room. This tactical setup strongly favours hold-up horses and prominent racers with finishing kicks over pure front runners who may face late challenges.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Holds
45% probability
If Amicitia gets easy lead and jockey Mulligan judges pace perfectly
Amicitia sustains her gallop on the yielding ground while late challengers struggle to make up ground in the large field. Her record on straight tracks and ability to dominate from the front pays dividends.
AmicitiaI Bid You AjouMint ManUnauthorized
B
Hold-Up Horses Swamp Leader
35% probability
If pace becomes searching enough in final quarter-mile to expose front runner
Little Empire and Apache Outlaw benefit from patient rides as Amicitia's gallop falters in testing conditions. The hold-up brigade get clear runs through the large field to deliver telling strikes.
Little EmpireApache OutlawUnauthorizedAltimara
C
Prominent Tracker Strikes
15% probability
If I Bid You Ajou or Alfred Tennyson get ideal position tracking Amicitia
The well-positioned prominent runners can quicken past a weakening leader while avoiding the traffic problems that befall hold-up horses. Their tactical position proves optimal in the large field scramble.
I Bid You AjouAlfred TennysonMint ManDragon Of Malta
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
5% probability
If Amicitia goes too slowly and creates sprint finish from 2f out
The race becomes a lottery with multiple horses converging simultaneously in final furlong. Any horse getting a clear run can capitalise on the moderate early gallop.
MercurialRibble EmperorAurora NovaFelix Somary
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Amicitia returning after 210 days off may lack race fitness to sustain gallop in final furlong
WATCH
Little Empire drawn wide could get caught in traffic problems typical of large Listowel fields
NOTE
I Bid You Ajou's recent Naas second suggests return to best form after disappointing summer
WATCH
Felix Somary has faded badly in recent starts despite removing headgear for this assignment
NOTE
Mickey The Steel needs to get into field as first reserve but has strong course form in testing ground
3:50 — Coco At The Arcade Race
1m · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 7 runners
Lead contested: God Of Power v SatoyamaHISTORIC
How it ran
Sursum Corda led; the map had God Of Power and Satoyama in front.
Tim Toe won at 10.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
God Of PowerSatoyama
Prominent · 3
Straight UpListentodwindblowTim Toe
Midfield · 1
Thread Of Gold
Hold Up · 1
Sursum Corda
God Of Power and Satoyama will ensure genuine early gallop from the front, with both confirmed leaders likely to contest the pace from flag-fall. Tim Toe, Straight Up, Listentodwindblow and Thread Of Gold will track prominently behind the leading pair, creating a decent tempo over this mile trip. The honest pace set by the dual front-runners should set up a proper test of stamina in the final two furlongs. This race shape clearly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and strike late, rather than pure front-runners or hold-up horses.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Tracker Prevails
45% probability
If the dual pace angle creates honest but not suicidal fractions
The prominent runners can sit perfectly positioned behind God Of Power and Satoyama before striking in the final furlong. Tim Toe or Thread Of Gold benefit most from this tactical setup with their proven ability to settle and finish.
Tim ToeThread Of GoldStraight UpListentodwindblow
B
Pace Collapse Benefits Closer
30% probability
If God Of Power and Satoyama go too fast and crack dramatically
The race becomes a sprint finish where Sursum Corda's hold-up style suddenly becomes an asset as front-runners fade. Her 7lb weight allowance becomes crucial in a slowly-run finale.
Sursum CordaListentodwindblowTim ToeStraight Up
C
Front Runner Survives
15% probability
If one of the leaders gets first run and maintains momentum
Either God Of Power or Satoyama gets the jump on their rival and builds enough lead to hold off late challengers. The winner shows superior class and stamina to sustain the gallop.
God Of PowerSatoyamaTim ToeThread Of Gold
D
Class Differential Decisive
10% probability
If the handicap marks prove too generous for the top-rated
Straight Up or Listentodwindblow's superior RPR ratings overcome any tactical disadvantage through pure ability. The Joseph O'Brien stable strikes with superior horseflesh despite unfavourable race shape.
Straight UpListentodwindblowTim ToeThread Of Gold
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
God Of Power and Satoyama both missing the break would completely change the race dynamic and favour hold-up horses
WATCH
Thread Of Gold's market support given the massive layoff - any strong betting moves suggest hidden workout form
NOTE
Straight Up's positioning early - if tracking closer than usual it suggests tactical change from the O'Brien team
WATCH
Listentodwindblow's early position given the 64-day gap may reveal fitness levels immediately
NOTE
Sursum Corda getting prominent early position would indicate jockey abandoning hold-up tactics
4:20 — James Collins Memorial Handicap
7f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 18 runners
Linger For Longer to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Methgal led; the map had Linger For Longer in front.
La La Lucrative won at 8.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
4 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Linger For Longer
Prominent · 4
James HenryThe Blue PantherSovereign BanterLiamo
Midfield · 8
Secret MagicianNotforalongtimeToy SoldierExceedingLa La LucrativeCracklesRough DiamondRun Forrest Run
Linger For Longer is the lone confirmed front-runner and will set a comfortable tempo without pressure from other natural leaders. The prominent runners James Henry and The Blue Panther will track behind, while the vast majority of this 18-runner field comprises hold-up horses who will need to come from off the pace. With minimal early pace pressure and soft ground that can test stamina reserves, this shape strongly favors front-runners and prominent racers who can secure good positions early and avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will plague the large pack of closers.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Front Runner
65% probability
If Linger For Longer gets an easy lead and sustains her gallop
The mare faces no pace pressure and can dictate fractions before the hold-up brigade gets organized. This tactical advantage on testing ground proves decisive for horses that avoid the scramble.
Linger For LongerJames HenryThe Blue PantherSovereign Banter
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
20% probability
If James Henry or The Blue Panther improve past the tiring leader
The prominent pair can stalk the easy pace before moving decisively while the back markers encounter traffic. Their forward positions prove crucial when many closers struggle to find racing room.
James HenryThe Blue PantherSovereign BanterExceeding
C
Late Surge Prevails
12% probability
If the early pace becomes truly pedestrian and hold-up horses get clear runs
Several hold-up performers find daylight and the soft ground doesn't compromise their finishing kicks. Quality closers like Zabriskie Point and Exceeding demonstrate superior class.
Zabriskie PointExceedingMethgalSecret Magician
D
Chaos and Outsider
3% probability
If traffic problems severely compromise the favorites and an unfancied runner finds a clear path
The large field creates a scramble that eliminates several fancied runners while a longer-shot holds position. An outsider benefits from the mayhem to steal the prize.
UkiyoRockbury LadToy SoldierNotforalongtime
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Linger For Longer breaking smartly and establishing an uncontested lead could prove decisive given the lack of other pace
WATCH
Traffic problems developing in the home straight with 18 runners and most needing hold-up tactics
WATCH
The Blue Panther's fitness after 52 days off following a disappointing Gowran return
NOTE
James Henry's position tracking the leader as the main threat to the front-runner
Mystic Rose led; the map had Parish Express in front.
Ballyadam won at 2.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Parish Express
Prominent · 5
BallyadamMiss GitanaBaila ConmigoTassaroloAll In Peder
Midfield · 4
Desert FriendCala GracionetaMystic RoseEdge Of Darkness
Hold Up · 4
Eben ZaabeelLoyal TouchLagoon NebulaSonic Invader
Parish Express will take them along from the front with no other confirmed pace-setters in this 14-runner field, creating a sustainable gallop without early pressure. The lack of pace competition means the tempo will be controlled rather than punishing, allowing prominent runners like Ballyadam, Tassarolo, and Baila Conmigo to track comfortably. With most of the field preferring to settle off the pace, including hold-up performers like Sonic Invader, Desert Friend, and Eben Zaabeel, the real action will come late as they fan out for home. This controlled pace scenario strongly favours hold-up horses and prominent runners who can quicken, while the lone leader Parish Express faces a wall of closers in the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If Parish Express sets a moderate gallop and the field bunches turning for home
The controlled pace allows patient riders to time their challenges perfectly, with stamina-laden closers having enough left to reel in the leaders. Hold-up specialists get the ideal setup to unleash late kicks.
If the pace stays steady but prominent runners position perfectly to pounce
Well-positioned horses like Ballyadam and Tassarolo can use their tactical speed to strike before the hold-up brigade gets organized. Their stamina proves decisive when the closers' challenges come too late.
BallyadamTassaroloBaila ConmigoMiss Gitana
C
Parish Express Survives
12% probability
If no serious challenges materialize until too late in the straight
The lack of early pace pressure allows Parish Express to dictate throughout and maintain enough for the finish when the field finally mobilizes. Her controlled fractions prove the key to staying power.
Parish ExpressDesert FriendSonic InvaderBallyadam
D
Pace Collapses Completely
8% probability
If Parish Express goes too slowly and creates a cavalry charge finish
The crawling pace turns this into a pure sprint finish where class and tactical speed matter most. The best horses on ratings can overcome poor positioning through sheer ability.
TassaroloEben ZaabeelBallyadamLagoon Nebula
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Parish Express could get an uncontested lead if no other pace angles emerge, making her very dangerous despite poor recent form
WATCH
Desert Friend's 10-year-old legs may not handle the sustained finish if the pace becomes truly-run despite his recent Sligo success
WATCH
All In Peder returns after 382 days off which is a massive concern even though he won this race previously
NOTE
Eben Zaabeel tries tongue tie for the first time which could unlock improvement if it helps his breathing
NOTE
Watch for Sonic Invader to be held up longer than usual given his proven stamina pattern over middle distances
5:20 — Acro Fire & Safety (Q.R.) Race
1m5½f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 7 runners
Quinta Do Lago likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Sky Captain led; the map had Quinta Do Lago in front.
Ndaawi won at 1.62 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Quinta Do Lago
Prominent · 2
NdaawiThe Mediator
Midfield · 2
Chain Of DestinyTalking Tough
Hold Up · 2
Sky CaptainAct Of God
Quinta Do Lago is the confirmed front runner and will dictate proceedings from the outset, with The Mediator and Ndaawi likely tracking in prominent positions early. With only one genuine pace-setter in a small field, this sets up for a sustainable tempo that won't overly stress the leaders through the middle stages. The modest pace will allow hold-up horses like Sky Captain, Act Of God, Chain Of Destiny and Talking Tough to stay in touch before the final climb. This race shape clearly favours front-running and prominent racers who can control their own destiny rather than relying on others to collapse.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Quinta Do Lago Controls
45% probability
If Quinta Do Lago gets an uncontested lead and maintains rhythm
The 4yo dictates comfortable fractions and has first run on rivals turning for home, with class telling in the finish. Ndaawi and The Mediator benefit from tracking the winner but lack the pace to reel him in.
Quinta Do LagoNdaawiThe MediatorSky Captain
B
Ndaawi Class Tells
30% probability
If Ndaawi's superior ability overcomes tactical disadvantage
The dual-purpose star uses his Galway Hurdle class to grind down Quinta Do Lago in the final furlong despite giving the leader first run. His OR 90 rating proves decisive against this moderate opposition.
NdaawiQuinta Do LagoSky CaptainThe Mediator
C
Sky Captain Late Surge
15% probability
If the early pace becomes genuinely strong and leaders tire
The lightly-raced 5yo benefits from recent Killarney disappointment being forgiven and sweeps up weary front-runners with his hold-up style. The visor helps him find extra gear when produced with his challenge.
Sky CaptainThe MediatorNdaawiQuinta Do Lago
D
Mediator Veteran Guile
10% probability
If The Mediator finds his autumn dual-purpose form
Elliott's 9yo uses his recent amateur contest wins to time his challenge perfectly between horses, catching both leaders and closers napping. His proven stamina at this trip gives him the edge in a grinding finish.
The MediatorNdaawiQuinta Do LagoSky Captain
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Quinta Do Lago getting soft lead - if uncontested early he becomes very hard to peg back with his natural pace advantage
WATCH
Ndaawi's fitness after 100-day break - any signs of rustiness early could compromise his superior class advantage
NOTE
Sky Captain's visor debut - new headgear suggests connections expect sharper performance than disappointing Killarney effort
WATCH
Early pace development - if genuinely strong it transforms race dynamics and brings hold-up horses into play
NOTE
The Mediator's jumping - any mistakes will kill momentum for prominent runner returning after long layoff
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.