Archive›Ludlow · 10 May 2026

Ludlow

10 May 2026 · 6 races

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2:17 — Radnor Hills Water Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m · Good · NOV · 7 runners

Enya likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Silvereen led; the map had Enya in front.

Silvereen won at 2.20 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Enya

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

Peace Of AmaronBriery RoseBits BallouDame In Disguise

Hold Up · 2

First CandidateSilvereen

Enya is the only confirmed front runner in this small field and should get an uncontested lead through reasonable fractions. With most rivals adopting hold-up tactics (First Candidate, Silvereen, Peace Of Amaron, Briery Rose, Bits Ballou, Dame In Disguise), the pace will be sustainable rather than punishing. The lack of pace pressure means Enya can dictate terms while the hold-up horses will need to time their challenges from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the leader and hold-up horses with a strong finish, as there will be plenty of horse left for a sustained drive from the back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Wins

35% probability

If Enya gets easy fractions and stays on strongly up the hill

The lack of early pressure allows her to save energy for a sustained kick, while the hold-up horses struggle to make up ground on the testing Ludlow finish. Her prominent style perfectly suits the race dynamic with no pace competition.

EnyaSilvereenFirst Candidate

Quality Prevails Late

45% probability

If First Candidate's class advantage tells in the final furlong despite the tactical setup

Her superior rating and recent Haydock win demonstrate she has the quality to overcome any pace bias, with Harry Skelton timing the challenge perfectly. The hill plays to her stamina strengths over the lesser-rated opposition.

First CandidateSilvereenEnyaPeace Of Amaron

Silvereen Steps Forward

12% probability

If the longer trip brings out improvement in Silvereen who was keeping on well over course and distance

Her March third here suggests the track suits, and the sustainable pace will allow her to build momentum through the final stages. The hold-up style works if she can find extra improvement at this longer trip.

SilvereenFirst CandidateEnya

Pace Collapse Shock

8% probability

If Enya stops quickly and allows a rank outsider to benefit from the chaotic finish

The easy lead might leave her vulnerable to stopping, creating opportunities for horses like Peace Of Amaron to pick up the pieces. A complete pace collapse would turn the race into a lottery for the outsiders.

Peace Of AmaronBriery RoseDame In DisguiseBits Ballou

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Enya could get very soft fractions with no pace pressure and prove hard to pass up Ludlow's testing hill

WATCH

First Candidate returning after 36-day break may need the run despite being highest-rated horse in field

NOTE

Peace Of Amaron has been off for 144 days which creates major fitness doubts for hold-up horse

WATCH

Silvereen ran well over course and distance in March and could benefit from longer trip if stepping forward

NOTE

The small field and lack of pace pressure means any horse stopping quickly could cause dramatic position changes

2:52 — Lion Leintwardine Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle

3m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Briery Butterfly likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Briery Butterfly led, as the map showed.

Son Of Tyran won at 4.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Briery Butterfly

Prominent · 2

Edna E ModeAthena's Dream

Midfield · 3

Shorten SassyChurchmanJoker Jack

Hold Up · 2

Slack AliceSon Of Tyran

Briery Butterfly leads with Shorten Sassy, Churchman, Athena's Dream, Edna E Mode and Joker Jack all holding prominent positions, creating a crowded front group over this stamina-sapping 3m trip. The pace will be steady early but the presence of multiple front-runners means sustained pressure from halfway as they jostle for position. Slack Alice and Son Of Tyran are the only hold-up horses but both have stamina questions at this distance. This pace setup strongly favours prominent racers who can secure good early positions without getting drawn into a speed duel.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Pairs Battle

45% probability

If the front group splits into two distinct pairings turning for home

Briery Butterfly and Shorten Sassy emerge as the main protagonists with their superior stamina reserves, while the other prominent horses fade from their exertions. Both have shown form over this trip and can sustain their effort to the line.

Briery ButterflyShorten SassyEdna E ModeChurchman

Sustained Gallop Suits

25% probability

If the large front group maintains cohesion until the final half-mile

The relentless gallop finds out the stamina limitations of several runners, allowing Edna E Mode's proven 3m form to shine through. Her previous course form at this distance gives her the edge over rivals trying the trip for the first time.

Edna E ModeChurchmanBriery ButterflyShorten Sassy

Hold-Up Challenge

20% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely searching and the front group comes back

Slack Alice benefits from her patient tactics as Sean Bowen times his challenge perfectly, with the mare's recent good ground form proving decisive. Son Of Tyran also emerges late but his finishing limitations prevent him from winning.

Slack AliceSon Of TyranShorten SassyEdna E Mode

Pace Collapse

10% probability

If the crowded front group goes too fast early and several drop out quickly

The race becomes a tactical affair where any of the survivors can win, with Athena's Dream's 4-year-old improvement curve potentially decisive. However, her stamina concerns at 3m remain a significant obstacle to overcome.

Athena's DreamJoker JackSlack AliceChurchman

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Briery Butterfly may not handle the early crowding given her fall last time when retreating at this course and distance

WATCH

Athena's Dream could struggle for stamina as she steps up to 3m for the first time with previous efforts suggesting 2m4f is her limit

WATCH

Son Of Tyran typically fades in the final furlong so any early prominence would be a major concern for connections

NOTE

Churchman's front-running tactics could dictate the early pace given his habit of making the running in similar contests

NOTE

Slack Alice needs Sean Bowen to find cover early as her hold-up style relies on others setting up the race

3:27 — Radnor Hills Splash Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Sunset Boulevard likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Hall Lane led; the map had Sunset Boulevard in front.

Zacony Rebel won at 4.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Sunset Boulevard

Prominent · 1

Hall Lane

Midfield · 2

Redbridge RamblerZacony Rebel

Hold Up · 2

Law Of SupplyNazare

Sunset Boulevard appears the only committed front runner with Hall Lane and Redbridge Rambler likely to sit prominently, creating a potentially uncontested lead for the Venetia Williams runner. The hold-up horses Law Of Supply, Nazare and Zacony Rebel will need the pace to be strong enough to set up their finishing kicks over this staying trip. With limited early pace pressure, this looks set to become a tactical affair that may not fully test the stamina reserves. This race shape strongly favours the early pace-setters and prominent racers who can dictate terms without being hustled along.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Sunset Boulevard gets an uncontested lead and maintains a steady gallop.

The lightly-raced 6yo can utilise his stamina and tactical advantage to resist late challengers who face too much to do. His wind surgery suggests connections expect improvement from his dismal recent efforts for the new stable.

Sunset BoulevardHall LaneRedbridge RamblerLaw Of Supply

Prominent Pair Battle

30% probability

If Hall Lane and Redbridge Rambler track Sunset Boulevard closely and challenge turning in.

These two in-form prominent racers can exploit any weakness in the leader while having enough in reserve to hold off the hold-up horses. Both have shown recent improvement and suit the likely steady pace scenario.

Hall LaneRedbridge RamblerSunset BoulevardZacony Rebel

Hold-Up Horse Strikes

20% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong and the race develops into a true test of stamina.

Law Of Supply's attractive handicap mark and Zacony Rebel's course form could pay dividends if the leaders go too fast early. The veteran Zacony Rebel particularly thrives at this venue with a 2-4 record.

Law Of SupplyZacony RebelNazareHall Lane

Improving Nazare Surprises

5% probability

If the James Owen runner has improved significantly from his disappointing recent chase form.

The 6yo bumper winner showed real promise when completing a hurdles double in November. His hold-up style could be effective if connections have solved his recent problems.

NazareLaw Of SupplyRedbridge RamblerSunset Boulevard

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Sunset Boulevard gets pulled up again - two consecutive DNFs suggest serious issues despite wind surgery

WATCH

Monitor how Redbridge Rambler handles running 24 hours after his Wincanton effort yesterday

NOTE

Check if Nazare shows any early pace interest - complete change of tactics could signal renewed confidence

WATCH

Observe Law Of Supply's jumping early - needs clean round to utilise his finishing kick from attractive mark

NOTE

Watch for any market moves on Hall Lane who looks the most consistent recent performer

4:02 — Welsh Guards Association Handicap Hurdle

2m · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Hooper likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Soleil d'Arizona led; the map had Hooper in front.

Pergamon won at 2.20 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hooper

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

Soleil d'ArizonaZucayanUfouriaLord Cauvelliere

Hold Up · 2

PergamonThe Tide Turns

Hooper appears the only natural front-runner in this small field, likely to set his own tempo from the start with five hold-up horses giving him an easy lead. With no genuine pace pressure early, Hooper can dictate a steady gallop that may not suit the collection of hold-up performers who need a strong pace to aim at. The race shape strongly favours Hooper's prominent position, as the hold-up brigade led by Pergamon, Zucayan, and Soleil d'Arizona will face the difficult task of making up ground against a horse who has controlled the tempo throughout.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hooper Controls Throughout

55% probability

If Hooper maintains his early advantage and the pace stays modest

The front-runner faces minimal pressure early and can kick clear when the hold-up horses are still gathering momentum. Pergamon and Soleil d'Arizona emerge best of the chasers but struggle to close the gap in time.

HooperPergamonSoleil d'ArizonaZucayan

Late Surge Prevails

25% probability

If the hold-up horses time their challenges perfectly despite the tactical disadvantage

Pergamon and Zucayan produce strong late runs to overhaul Hooper in the final furlong. The class horses find enough despite the unfavourable pace scenario.

PergamonZucayanSoleil d'ArizonaHooper

Skelton Mare Strikes

12% probability

If Soleil d'Arizona can overcome the pace bias with superior acceleration

The Dan Skelton-trained mare uses her class to power through the field late despite the modest gallop. Her good ground form and Skelton's 8/26 strike rate provide the edge needed.

Soleil d'ArizonaPergamonHooperZucayan

Outsider Ambush

8% probability

If Lord Cauvelliere or Ufouria benefit from the light weights and pace collapse

One of the lesser-rated horses takes advantage when the favourites fail to overcome the tactical setup. The 12lb weight advantage for Ufouria or Lord Cauvelliere's bumper form translates to hurdles success.

Lord CauvelliereUfouriaPergamonHooper

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hooper's fitness after 498 days off the track - any early signs of rustiness could change the race dynamic completely

WATCH

The early pace development - if any of the supposed hold-up horses go forward early, it transforms the tactical picture

NOTE

Pergamon's jumping rhythm in the back straight - his hold-up style needs fluent hurdling to mount an effective challenge

WATCH

Soleil d'Arizona's position turning for home - Harry Skelton must have her close enough to strike despite the pace bias

NOTE

The weights telling in the final furlong - Ufouria and Lord Cauvelliere carry significantly less than the main contenders

4:37 — GC Rickards Mares' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Northern Symphonie likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Regal Renaissance and Northern Symphonie led, as the map showed.

Regal Renaissance won at 2.20 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Northern Symphonie

Prominent · 1

Ezmerellda

Midfield · 1

Claim Du Brizais

Hold Up · 2

Regal RenaissanceNorthern Air

Northern Symphonie will take the early lead with her prominent style, likely joined or pressed by Ezmerellda who also shows early pace. With only one confirmed front runner and four hold-up horses, Northern Symphonie can dictate a steady rhythm without serious early pressure over this stamina-testing 2m4f trip. The lack of pace pressure early will set up a tactical finish where the prominent runners can maintain their advantage, while the hold-up quartet may struggle to make ground from off the pace in a small field. This race shape strongly favours the early pace horses who can control the tempo and kick clear.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Lead Wins

45% probability

If Northern Symphonie gets an easy lead and stays on strongly

She faces minimal early pressure and can dictate ideal fractions, while the hold-up horses struggle to close the gap in a slowly-run race. Her cheekpieces debut and fence switch could unlock improvement at the perfect moment.

Northern SymphonieEzmerelldaRegal RenaissanceNorthern Air

Class Tell Late

30% probability

If Regal Renaissance finds her best form and times her challenge perfectly

The favourite's superior class rating and recent Stratford second suggests she has more in hand than these rivals. Sam Twiston-Davies can use her hold-up style to good effect if the early pace is strong enough.

Regal RenaissanceNorthern AirNorthern SymphonieClaim Du Brizais

Skelton Stable Strikes

15% probability

If Claim Du Brizais produces his Warwick third form and mistakes are minimized

Harry Skelton's booking for the in-form Dan Skelton yard suggests confidence, and his previous chase form shows more potential than recent efforts indicate. The strong stable form gives this combination live chances.

Claim Du BrizaisRegal RenaissanceNorthern SymphonieNorthern Air

Pace Collapse Surprise

10% probability

If both early leaders fold completely and the race becomes a sprint

Northern Symphonie and Ezmerellda both show questionable stamina for this trip, potentially leaving the door open for a closer. This would require a dramatic pace collapse that seems unlikely given the lack of early speed.

Northern AirClaim Du BrizaisRegal RenaissanceEzmerellda

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Northern Symphonie's early position - if she gets loose on the lead unchallenged, she becomes very dangerous in this weak pace scenario

WATCH

Regal Renaissance's jumping - needs to be slick at the obstacles to make up ground from her hold-up position against the early pace

NOTE

Claim Du Brizais at the start - any market confidence for the Skelton runner would be significant given trainer's current form

WATCH

The pace through halfway - if both Northern Symphonie and Ezmerellda are allowed to crawl, the hold-up horses face an impossible task

NOTE

Northern Air's early positioning - new stable debut means tactical approach uncertain, could be key to her chances

5:10 — Heartsease Farm Handicap Hurdle

2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Steady The Ship to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Midnight View led; the map had Steady The Ship in front.

Jafimgoso won at 5.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Steady The Ship

Prominent · 1

Ramaah

Midfield · 4

JafimgosoIzzy's GreyMan Of RiddlesJour d'Orage

Hold Up · 2

SnapiusMidnight View

Steady The Ship is the lone confirmed front runner in this eight-runner handicap hurdle, giving him a soft lead at what should be a sustainable gallop over this staying trip. With most rivals (Snapius, Midnight View, Jafimgoso, Izzy's Grey, Jour d'Orage, Man Of Riddles) holding up and only Ramaah racing prominently, there's minimal early pace pressure. The lack of speed will create a tactical affair with a sprint finish, but the extended trip means stamina becomes crucial in the final half-mile. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses with proven stamina who can quicken off the modest gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If the pace stays steady throughout and becomes a sprint finish

The lack of early pace allows patient riders to position perfectly before unleashing late kicks. Proven stayers with turn of foot benefit most from the tactical nature and sustained finish.

SnapiusMidnight ViewJafimgosoJour d'Orage

Front Runner Steals It

20% probability

If Steady The Ship gets too easy a lead and maintains stamina

The 10-year-old gets first run on his rivals and holds on grimly as the hold-up horses make their moves too late. His recent chase failures mask his hurdles ability over this longer trip.

Steady The ShipRamaahSnapiusMidnight View

Prominent Racer Benefits

10% probability

If Ramaah can improve for the step up in trip

The 5-year-old sits handy behind Steady The Ship and has first chance to respond when the pace quickens. His flat speed helps him bridge the gap between early leader and hold-up horses.

RamaahSnapiusMidnight ViewJafimgoso

Pace Collapses Completely

5% probability

If Steady The Ship goes too slow even for staying types

The race becomes a crawl that negates stamina advantages and turns into a pure sprint where any horse can win. The tactical nature becomes so extreme that positioning trumps ability.

Izzy's GreyMan Of RiddlesJour d'OrageJafimgoso

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Steady The Ship's stamina reserves in final half-mile after recent chase failures and 44-day layoff

WATCH

Monitor how aggressively the hold-up horses are positioned turning for home given the likely slow pace

NOTE

Check if Jafimgoso handles the step up to 2m5½f better than his previous disappointing attempt over course and distance

WATCH

Observe whether Snapius and Midnight View get clear runs in what could become a crowded finish

NOTE

Note if Ramaah shows any improvement for the longer trip given his poor hurdles record to date

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 10 May 2026.

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