Archive›Market Rasen · 12 June 2026

Market Rasen

12 June 2026 · 6 races

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5:41 — Hayley Middleton Juvenile Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m½f · Good · CLS4 · 4 runners

No obvious leaderFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Tiny Riot led.

Vietnorm won at 2.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 0

None

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

Steel FixerCracking Anna

Hold Up · 2

VietnormTiny Riot

With all four runners carrying identical Hold Up styles, this becomes a tactical crawl from the start. No natural pace-setter exists among Tiny Riot, Steel Fixer, Vietnorm, and Cracking Anna, creating a pedestrian early gallop that will inevitably produce a bunched field turning for home. The lack of early pace will compress the finish into a sprint from the final furlong, where superior acceleration and race fitness will prove decisive. This race shape strongly favours horses with proven finishing kick and sharp turn of foot over those who need strong early pace to be effective.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Tactical Sprint Finish

55% probability

If the field crawls through halfway and bunches into a cavalry charge from two out

The compressed finish becomes a pure test of acceleration where recent winner Tiny Riot's superior form and Skelton stable strength can dominate. Vietnorm's dual win streak also positions him perfectly for this type of finish.

Tiny RiotVietnormSteel FixerCracking Anna

Early Breakaway Attempt

25% probability

If one runner breaks the tactical deadlock and forces genuine pace from the start

Steel Fixer or Vietnorm could exploit their stamina to stretch the field, though the hold-up merchants behind will still get their chance. The imposed pace benefits those with proven staying power over pure sprinters.

Steel FixerVietnormTiny RiotCracking Anna

Stamina Test Develops

12% probability

If genuine pace materializes and the race becomes a true staying test over the extended trip

Vietnorm's consistent record at longer distances and Steel Fixer's trainer form gives them the edge in a grinding finish. The extended trip plays against those who rely purely on acceleration.

VietnormSteel FixerTiny RiotCracking Anna

Pace Collapse Drama

8% probability

If the tactical nature produces stop-start fractions and a messy finish with interference

The jockey factor becomes crucial with Durrell's big-race experience on Tiny Riot potentially decisive in a rough finish. Form horses struggle when racing luck becomes paramount.

Tiny RiotSteel FixerVietnormCracking Anna

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for early tactical positioning as all four share hold-up styles creating potential traffic problems

WATCH

Monitor Steel Fixer's breathing with first-time tongue-tie potentially transforming performance level

NOTE

Observe Vietnorm's early race keenness given the 13-day gap potentially affecting race fitness

WATCH

Watch Cracking Anna for signs of her usual late fade pattern emerging from two furlongs out

NOTE

Track jockey positioning through the early crawl as race-riding experience becomes crucial in tactical finish

6:16 — Rase Vets Summer Party Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle

2m7f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Swingingonthesteel likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Mc'flo and Swingingonthesteel led, as the map showed.

Slack Alice won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Swingingonthesteel

Prominent · 1

Newmill Getaway

Midfield · 4

Jessie Jump JetPopa RichRamaahMc'flo

Hold Up · 2

BrionywellsSlack Alice

Swingingonthesteel and Newmill Getaway will contest the early lead, with both horses having prominent tendencies and the tactical speed to dictate terms. The sustainable pace they set will allow the large contingent of hold-up horses (Brionywells, Jessie Jump Jet, Slack Alice, Popa Rich, Ramaah, Mc'flo) to get into contention turning for home. With six runners needing to come from off the pace against just two pace-setters, this creates a tactical disadvantage for the leaders who may get swamped late. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can finish strongly, particularly those with proven finishing kicks like Brionywells and Jessie Jump Jet.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Brigade Dominates

55% probability

If the early pace is steady allowing closers to build momentum

The large pack of hold-up horses will have every chance to unleash their finishing kicks, with Brionywells and Jessie Jump Jet best positioned to capitalize. The leaders Swingingonthesteel and Newmill Getaway will find themselves outnumbered and vulnerable to the late charge.

BrionywellsJessie Jump JetSlack AlicePopa Rich

Front Two Control

25% probability

If Swingingonthesteel and Newmill Getaway establish an unassailable advantage

These two prominent runners can dictate fractions that suit their styles and kick clear before the closers can respond. Swingingonthesteel's recent winning form gives him the edge over Newmill Getaway in a straight fight.

SwingingonthesteelNewmill GetawayBrionywellsJessie Jump Jet

Tactical Battle Pace

12% probability

If the early leaders go too fast trying to break the field

The strong pace will set up perfectly for the proven finishers, with Brionywells having the class advantage despite her finishing concerns. Slack Alice and Jessie Jump Jet can take advantage of the pace collapse to get competitive.

BrionywellsSlack AliceJessie Jump JetNewmill Getaway

Surprise Package

8% probability

If the lower-rated hold-up horses benefit from a perfect pace setup

Popa Rich or Ramaah could spring a surprise if the race unfolds to suit their closing styles perfectly. The light weights they carry could prove decisive in a slowly-run affair that becomes a sprint finish.

Popa RichRamaahMc'floSlack Alice

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Swingingonthesteel's fitness after 116 days layoff could be exposed if forced to battle early with Newmill Getaway

WATCH

Brionywells' tendency to fade in the finish could cost her if she hits the front too early despite her class advantage

NOTE

The pace battle between Swingingonthesteel and Newmill Getaway will determine whether the hold-up horses get their perfect setup

WATCH

Popa Rich's recent poor runs including a fall make her hard to trust despite the weight advantage

NOTE

Jessie Jump Jet's consistency makes him the safest option among the hold-up horses if the pace collapses

6:51 — Rebecca Brooks Handicap Chase

2m3f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Ask A Sainte likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Get A Superstar led; the map had Ask A Sainte in front.

Get A Superstar won at 6.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ask A Sainte

Prominent · 1

Get A Superstar

Midfield · 2

Prospect HouseBlue Bear

Hold Up · 2

Tsavo ParkFast Deal

Ask A Sainte will take the lead from the start with Get A Superstar and Prospect House pressing just behind in the early stages. The pace will be steady but sustainable given the lack of genuine speed horses in this small field. Tsavo Park, Blue Bear and Fast Deal will sit further back looking to make late moves. This setup strongly favours prominent runners who can sit close to the pace and kick when the tempo lifts, as the hold-up horses lack the class to make up significant ground from the back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

65% probability

If Ask A Sainte sets a steady tempo without serious pressure through the middle stages

The race becomes a test of staying power from the three-furlong pole where the prominent runners can respond quickest. Hold-up horses find themselves with too much to do against classier opponents.

Ask A SainteGet A SuperstarProspect HouseTsavo Park

Early Pace Collapse

20% probability

If Ask A Sainte goes too slow and the field bunches up turning for home

The race becomes a sprint finish where positioning matters more than class, allowing the back markers to close the gap. Fast Deal's known finishing weakness becomes less relevant in a slowly-run race.

Prospect HouseTsavo ParkGet A SuperstarBlue Bear

Sustained Gallop Throughout

12% probability

If Get A Superstar or Prospect House press Ask A Sainte from an early stage creating genuine pace

The strong tempo finds out the stamina of all runners with only the most genuine stayers lasting home. This exposes Fast Deal's finishing frailties and tests Blue Bear's lower grade credentials.

Ask A SainteGet A SuperstarProspect HouseTsavo Park

Hold-Up Horse Surprise

3% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a messy crawl until the final half-mile

Tsavo Park or Blue Bear could capitalize on superior finishing kick against tired prominent runners. This requires perfect timing from claiming jockeys which seems unlikely given the opposition quality.

Tsavo ParkBlue BearAsk A SainteFast Deal

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Fast Deal's tendency to fade in the finish could see him pulled up if the pace is strong early

WATCH

Paddy Hanlon's 5lb claim on Tsavo Park might not be enough to overcome the class deficit in this company

NOTE

Ask A Sainte's jumping under pressure will be crucial if Get A Superstar or Prospect House challenge early

WATCH

Blue Bear needs the leaders to come back to him significantly given the 26lb weight differential with the top-rated horses

NOTE

Prospect House's trainer Peter Niven has had no runners in the past 14 days which could indicate freshness concerns

7:26 — Bob And Babs Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

King Roly likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Fringill Dike led; the map had King Roly in front.

Fringill Dike won at 6.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

King Roly

Prominent · 2

Maximum OffersDoyouknowwhatimean

Midfield · 2

Okavango DeltaWudya

Hold Up · 2

Hurricane BayFringill Dike

King Roly will lead from the outset with his prominent style and front-running tendencies, likely setting a comfortable gallop over this intermediate trip. With most of the field rated as prominent runners rather than pure hold-up horses, there should be reasonable company for King Roly through the early stages without excessive pressure. The lack of confirmed strong stayers and the good ground conditions will create a race where those able to track the pace and kick from prominent positions hold the tactical advantage. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can sit close to King Roly and strike turning for home.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

45% probability

If King Roly sets a reasonable gallop and the prominent runners get perfect tracking positions

The pace will be honest but not destructive, allowing the higher-rated prominent runners to time their challenges perfectly turning for home. Maximum Offers and King Roly can utilise their class advantage from ideal positions.

Maximum OffersKing RolyDoyouknowwhatimeanWudya

Hold-Up Horses Strike

30% probability

If the early gallop becomes too fast or King Roly gets pressured by multiple prominent runners

The pace will collapse in the final furlong, setting up a late charge from Hurricane Bay or Fringill Dike who can finish strongest. Hurricane Bay's recent winning form gives him the edge in a sprint finish.

Hurricane BayFringill DikeMaximum OffersKing Roly

King Roly Wire-to-Wire

15% probability

If King Roly gets an uncontested lead and his stamina proves superior over this trip

Sean Bowen can dictate terms from the front and kick clear before the hold-up horses can mount their challenge. His course experience and prominent style perfectly suit these tactics.

King RolyMaximum OffersHurricane BayDoyouknowwhatimean

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If multiple prominent runners pressure King Roly early and create a stop-start gallop

The race will become a tactical affair with multiple horses still in contention at the last fence, favouring those with the best finishing kicks. Wudya or Okavango Delta could capitalise on the confusion with their lower weights.

WudyaOkavango DeltaHurricane BayMaximum Offers

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

King Roly getting pressured early by multiple prominent runners could create pace collapse scenarios

WATCH

Hurricane Bay jumping fluently in the early stages as his hold-up style needs smooth travel to be effective

NOTE

Maximum Offers settling kindly behind King Roly as his recent form suggests he's ready to strike

WATCH

Fringill Dike getting outpaced early as his hold-up style requires strong gallop to be competitive

NOTE

The pace through the first mile as King Roly's comfort level will determine whether front runners or hold-up horses benefit

8:01 — Rase Veterinary Summer Party Handicap Hurdle

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Trust House likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Pigeon House led; the map had Trust House in front.

Ip Up won at 5.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Trust House

Prominent · 1

Kingston Sunflower

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Pigeon HouseIp Up

Trust House and Kingston Sunflower will set a moderate gallop from the front with no other confirmed pace-pressers in this small field. The early pace should be comfortable, allowing both prominent runners to travel well through the first circuit. With Pigeon House and Ip Up both hold-up horses, the race will develop into a waiting game before quickening significantly from three out. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours the front-runners who can dictate terms and kick clear when the hold-up horses are still working their way into contention.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runners Dominate

60% probability

If Trust House and Kingston Sunflower get an easy lead and comfortable sectionals

The pace-setters will have plenty left in the tank to resist the late challenge, with the hold-up horses unable to make up the ground in time. This plays perfectly into the hands of horses who can dictate from the front without early pressure.

Trust HouseKingston SunflowerPigeon HouseIp Up

Late Surge Prevails

25% probability

If the early pace becomes too slow and the race becomes a sprint from the last

The hold-up horses will benefit from a truly-run finish where their closing speed can be maximized. Pigeon House's class advantage becomes telling in a finish where tactical speed matters most.

Pigeon HouseIp UpTrust HouseKingston Sunflower

Pace Collapse

10% probability

If Trust House or Kingston Sunflower falter in the closing stages after setting the pace

The surviving front-runner will pick up the pieces as the hold-up horses still have too much ground to make up. One pace-setter benefits from the other's demise while maintaining positional advantage.

Trust HouseKingston SunflowerPigeon HouseIp Up

Tactical Chaos

5% probability

If jockey tactics backfire with all horses waiting too long to make their move

The race becomes a lottery where positioning and luck at the business end determines the outcome. The horse who finds the clearest passage and quickest response will prevail regardless of early tactics.

Pigeon HouseTrust HouseKingston SunflowerIp Up

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Trust House and Kingston Sunflower getting an uncontested lead through the first mile will make them very difficult to peg back

WATCH

Pigeon House needs to be closer than usual turning for home given the small field and likely lack of pace

NOTE

Sean Bowen's tactics on Trust House in the early stages as he has the form edge over Kingston Sunflower

NOTE

How much the 5lb claim helps Kingston Sunflower's jumping rhythm under Fern O'Brien

WATCH

Any early mistakes from the hold-up horses will effectively end their chances in this tactical affair

8:36 — Rase Equine Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

2m4½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Little Ledgend likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Estacas led; the map had Little Ledgend in front.

Bunker Bay won at 6.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Little Ledgend

Prominent · 1

Knacker Trapper

Midfield · 3

Born Like MeBunker BayZuul

Hold Up · 2

Roxboro RiverEstacas

Little Ledgend and Knacker Trapper will set a measured early gallop with their prominent styles, but neither is a confirmed tearaway leader so the pace should be sustainable rather than frantic. With five hold-up horses in the field, there will be a large pack tracking the leaders through the early stages, creating potential for traffic problems at hurdles. The relatively gentle early pace will suit the patient types, but when the tempo lifts from three out, those handy to the pace will have the tactical advantage. This race shape strongly favours horses that can sit prominent or travel well in midfield, as pure hold-up horses may struggle to make ground from the back of this compact field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Types Dominate

55% probability

If Little Ledgend and Knacker Trapper maintain forward positions without going too fast early

The measured gallop allows them to conserve energy while avoiding the scramble behind, giving them first run when the pace quickens approaching the business end. Hold-up horses get caught in traffic or find the steady tempo doesn't suit their finishing kick.

Little LedgendKnacker TrapperEstacasBunker Bay

Hold-Up Horse Strikes

25% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong and the leaders weaken significantly

A patient type like Estacas or Roxboro River can use their superior class ratings to sweep past tired front-runners in the final half-mile. The pace collapse creates the perfect setup for their closing style to be effective.

EstacasRoxboro RiverLittle LedgendBunker Bay

Bunker Bay Gets Up

12% probability

If the in-form winner can get a smooth passage and the pace sets up right

His recent Sedgefield success and 7lb weight advantage could prove decisive if he avoids the traffic problems that often plague hold-up horses. The conditional jockey's 3lb claim becomes crucial in a tight finish.

Bunker BayBorn Like MeLittle LedgendEstacas

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If both prominent runners go too fast early and fade badly

The race becomes a sprint from the back where pure finishing speed matters most, potentially suiting the inconsistent but capable Zuul with his 12lb weight advantage. Multiple hold-up horses get competitive simultaneously creating chaos.

ZuulBorn Like MeRoxboro RiverEstacas

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Little Ledgend's jumping under pressure after 115-day absence - any early mistake could derail prominent position

WATCH

Traffic problems at hurdles with five hold-up horses converging from rear - Estacas and Roxboro River most vulnerable

WATCH

Bunker Bay's ability to get competitive from hold-up style if prominent duo don't go fast enough early

NOTE

Knacker Trapper's early positioning - needs to be handy but not lead given inconsistent finishing efforts

NOTE

Born Like Me and conditional jockey Oscar Palmer's 6lb claim becoming factor if race develops into sprint finish

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 12 June 2026.

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