Archive›Market Rasen · 28 May 2026

Market Rasen

28 May 2026 · 6 races

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6:00 — Summer Plate Ladies Day Book Now Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m2½f · Good · CLS4 · 8 runners

Frisky Whiskey likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Aimeric led; the map had Frisky Whiskey in front.

Wahraan won at 2.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Frisky Whiskey

Prominent · 1

Aimeric

Midfield · 4

Bailey's LuckJessie Jump JetPopalotPrince Abu

Hold Up · 2

WahraanCockney Cleopatra

With only one confirmed front runner in Frisky Whiskey facing seven hold-up/midfield types, this race sets up as a straightforward scenario where the pace-setter gets an easy lead. Frisky Whiskey will dictate terms unchallenged through the early stages, likely creating a sustainable tempo that won't stretch the field. The lack of pace pressure means the race will develop into a sprint finish where horses with tactical speed and the ability to quicken off a steady gallop will have the advantage. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the leader and hold-up horses with a strong finishing kick.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Wins

45% probability

If Frisky Whiskey gets an easy lead and stays on strongly

The lack of early pace allows Frisky Whiskey to control the race completely, setting up a rhythm that suits his stamina reserves perfectly. Hold-up horses struggle to make up ground when the gallop hasn't been testing enough to set up their finishing kicks.

Frisky WhiskeyAimericCockney CleopatraWahraan

Late Kick Prevails

35% probability

If the steady pace sets up a sprint finish in the final furlong

The uncontested lead creates a moderate gallop that allows closers like Cockney Cleopatra and Wahraan to unleash their finishing speed. Class horses with proven ability get first run and outfinish the pace-setter who has done too much work.

Cockney CleopatraWahraanJessie Jump JetFrisky Whiskey

Tactical Speed Wins

12% probability

If a prominent tracker like Aimeric moves to challenge early

Aimeric uses his flat speed to press Frisky Whiskey from the home turn, creating enough pace to blunt the finishing kicks of the hold-up brigade. The tactical battle between the two most forward runners decides the outcome.

AimericFrisky WhiskeyWahraanCockney Cleopatra

Outsider Benefits

8% probability

If the favourites fail to handle the tactical nature

The steady pace and lack of early positioning pressure allows a lightly-weighted outsider like Jessie Jump Jet or Bailey's Luck to get into contention. The lack of a strong gallop means stamina becomes less important than raw finishing speed.

Bailey's LuckJessie Jump JetPopalotPrince Abu

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Cockney Cleopatra pulled up twice this spring for new stable and any sign of reluctance in preliminaries would be terminal

WATCH

Frisky Whiskey has never run beyond 2m before so watch for any signs of emptying in final half-furlong

WATCH

Aimeric looked hesitant at flights on hurdle debut so monitor jumping technique early doors

NOTE

Bailey's Luck wearing hood for first time and completely unexposed over hurdles, market moves would be significant

NOTE

Prince Abu returning after 679-day absence with claiming jockey, any positive pre-race vibes worth noting

6:30 — Geoff Handley's Grand 80th Handicap Chase

2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Livano Bello likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Get A Superstar won at 4.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Livano Bello

Prominent · 1

Play By The Rules

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

El MuchachoGet A Superstar

Livano Bello will be the primary pace-setter with both prominent runners likely to track closely behind the early leader. Play By The Rules and Livano Bello should ensure a steady gallop over this extended trip, while El Muchacho and Get A Superstar will need to be positioned to strike from off the pace. The lack of genuine speed horses suggests a moderate tempo that will quicken from the final fence. This race shape clearly favours hold-up horses who can produce late kicks, as the pace won't be strong enough to blunt closing finishes.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the early pace remains moderate as expected

The steady gallop will suit El Muchacho and Get A Superstar perfectly, allowing them to conserve energy before unleashing finishing kicks. Both closers have the class edge over the pace-setters in a sprint finish.

El MuchachoGet A SuperstarLivano BelloPlay By The Rules

Livano Bello Controls

25% probability

If Livano Bello gets an easy lead and dictates terms

The front-runner can use his stamina to stretch the field from three out, potentially getting first run on his rivals. His consistency gives him every chance if not pressured early.

Livano BelloPlay By The RulesEl MuchachoGet A Superstar

Tactical Battle Unfolds

12% probability

If Play By The Rules and Livano Bello engage in early pace pressure

The dual prominent runners push each other along, creating a stronger gallop that sets up the race perfectly for the hold-up pair. El Muchacho's class tells in a slowly-run finish.

El MuchachoGet A SuperstarPlay By The RulesLivano Bello

Surprise Pace Collapse

8% probability

If all runners go steady and it becomes a sprint

The race turns into a pure stamina test where fitness and recent form becomes crucial. Play By The Rules could benefit from his recent promising Newcastle run.

Play By The RulesLivano BelloEl MuchachoGet A Superstar

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Get A Superstar's fitness after 203 days off could see him fade quickly despite his hold-up style suiting the race shape.

WATCH

Livano Bello needs to avoid early pressure from Play By The Rules to maintain his front-running advantage.

NOTE

El Muchacho's recent second over course and distance makes him the form horse but he must overcome topweight.

WATCH

Play By The Rules showed promise last time but needs to prove his stamina over this extended trip.

NOTE

William Maggs' 3lb claim for El Muchacho effectively drops him below the other topweight Livano Bello.

7:00 — Family Extravaganza Raceday On Sunday 5th July Mares' Handicap Hurdle

2m4½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Mistral Blue likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Royal Maggs and Time Was led; the map had Mistral Blue in front.

Lady Fortune won at 3.75 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Mistral Blue

Prominent · 2

Lone StarRoyal Maggs

Midfield · 3

Little SoireeTime WasLady Fortune

Hold Up · 2

Cher TaraParish Star

Mistral Blue looks the only natural front runner and should set a comfortable rhythm from the start with Lone Star, Royal Maggs and Little Soiree tracking in prominent positions. The pace will be moderate rather than searching, as none of the prominent racers are confirmed tearaways, allowing the race to develop into a test of stamina over the final 4f. With half the field adopting hold-up tactics (Cher Tara, Time Was, Parish Star, Lady Fortune), this should create a bunched finish where horses need to be produced with well-timed challenges. This shape strongly favours prominent racers who can secure good positions early and avoid the scrimmaging that hold-up horses will face.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Racers Dominate

60% probability

If Mistral Blue sets a steady tempo and the prominent group maintain their positions

The pace will be honest but not punishing, allowing Lone Star and Mistral Blue to kick clear in the final 2f before the hold-up brigade can mount their challenges. Royal Maggs could also benefit if she doesn't fade as badly as recent form suggests.

Lone StarMistral BlueRoyal MaggsLittle Soiree

Hold-Up Challenge Succeeds

25% probability

If the early pace becomes too slow and bunches the field

Parish Star and Cher Tara will get the perfect setup to unleash finishing kicks, with Time Was also dangerous despite her long absence. The prominent racers will be sitting ducks if they've been going too slowly.

Parish StarCher TaraTime WasMistral Blue

Pace Collapses Early

10% probability

If Mistral Blue doesn't lead or gets headed early by prominent racers

Little Soiree or Royal Maggs could steal a march by going forward when the expected pace scenario breaks down. This would create a muddling race where tactical speed matters more than pure stamina.

Little SoireeRoyal MaggsLone StarParish Star

Outsider Ambush

5% probability

If the favourite types underperform and the pace becomes tactical

Lady Fortune could spring a surprise off her low weight despite poor recent form, or Time Was could capitalise on others' mistakes after her lengthy break. The combination of light weights and tactical positioning could prove decisive.

Lady FortuneTime WasParish StarLittle Soiree

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Mistral Blue's jumping early on as she's likely to dictate and any mistakes could disrupt the entire pace scenario

WATCH

Little Soiree's position through the race as her recent form suggests she may not handle the prominent role her style suggests

WATCH

Time Was for ring-rustiness signs after 93 days off despite her decent course record

NOTE

Royal Maggs for any signs of her finishing fade developing before the final 2f

NOTE

Parish Star's positioning turning in as she'll need clear room to deliver her customary late challenge

7:32 — Anji Fletcher Memorial Handicap Hurdle

2m4½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Jackstell likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

High Dancer and Sun Art led; the map had Jackstell in front.

Crebilly won at 6.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Jackstell

Prominent · 2

Snatch A GlanceHigh Dancer

Midfield · 2

Sun ArtNitty Gritty

Hold Up · 2

CrebillyLord Chamberlain

Jackstell is the only confirmed front runner in this small field and should get an uncontested lead, setting a sustainable rhythm over this staying trip. High Dancer and Snatch A Glance will likely track him prominently, with the hold-up quartet of Crebilly, Sun Art, Nitty Gritty and Lord Chamberlain settling further back. The moderate early pace will allow Jackstell to dictate terms without pressure, making it difficult for closers to bridge the gap in the straight. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and front runners who can capitalise on the soft fractions.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Jackstell Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Jackstell gets the easy lead he expects and maintains his rhythm

The front runner faces no early pressure and kicks clear turning in, making it very hard for the hold-up horses to close the gap. His three autumn wins all came from prominent positions and this tactical advantage should prove decisive.

JackstellHigh DancerSnatch A GlanceSun Art

Prominent Pressure Tells

30% probability

If High Dancer or Snatch A Glance press Jackstell from early stages

The increased pace softens up Jackstell but also stretches the field, favouring those who can travel strongly in behind the leaders. High Dancer's stamina questions are negated by the shorter trip while Snatch A Glance gets her preferred aggressive tempo.

High DancerSnatch A GlanceJackstellLord Chamberlain

Hold-Up Horse Strikes

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish

The lack of early pace allows the back markers to close dramatically in the final furlong. Sun Art and Lord Chamberlain have both shown smart finishing kicks when conditions suit their patient tactics.

Lord ChamberlainSun ArtCrebillyNitty Gritty

Experience Counts

10% probability

If Crebilly's class advantage overcomes his recent poor form

The veteran's superior ability shines through despite tactical disadvantages, potentially aided by Harry Cobden's strength in the saddle. His hold-up style works if others go too hard too early.

CrebillyNitty GrittyHigh DancerJackstell

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Jackstell must break alertly to secure the uncontested lead his front-running style demands

WATCH

High Dancer and Snatch A Glance could disrupt the pace if either decides to press Jackstell early

WATCH

Crebilly's jumping under pressure given his recent struggles and long absence from winning form

NOTE

Lord Chamberlain's ability to settle given his tendency to get keen and waste energy

NOTE

The pace through the middle sections which will determine if closers can get competitive

8:07 — Dine In The Altior's Resturant Novices' Handicap Chase

2m1f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Catchim to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Intenzo led; the map had Catchim in front.

Lheur De Gloire won at 3.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Catchim

Prominent · 1

Intenzo

Midfield · 1

Walk The Plank

Hold Up · 2

Lheur De GloireCawthorne Cracker

Catchim will lead from the front as the sole confirmed pace-setter, with Intenzo likely tracking him prominently. The remaining three runners (Lheur De Gloire, Cawthorne Cracker, Walk The Plank) all prefer hold-up tactics, creating a split field dynamic. With no pressure on Catchim early, he can dictate a sustainable tempo and kick clear approaching the final fence as he did when winning here last month. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid getting caught behind the hold-up brigade.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Catchim Leads Throughout

55% probability

If Catchim settles and jumps cleanly in front without early pressure.

He can replicate his course win by dictating terms and kicking clear approaching the final fence when the hold-up horses are still gathering momentum. His proven course form and sustainable front-running style makes him ideally suited to exploit this tactical setup.

CatchimIntenzoWalk The PlankLheur De Gloire

Prominent Horse Pounces

25% probability

If Intenzo tracks Catchim closely and times his challenge perfectly.

The promising chaser can use his prominent style to shadow the leader and strike in the final furlong when Catchim's stamina wavers. His clear second at Sedgefield shows he has the tactical speed to capitalize on favorable positioning.

IntenzoCatchimCawthorne CrackerWalk The Plank

Hold-Up Charge Success

12% probability

If the pace collapses early and the hold-up horses get perfect splits.

Walk The Plank or Cawthorne Cracker could benefit from their patient tactics if they find clear runs and the leaders come back to them. However, both need everything to fall right given their inferior recent form.

Walk The PlankCawthorne CrackerLheur De GloireIntenzo

Surprise Lheur Victory

8% probability

If Lheur De Gloire's wind operation has transformed him completely.

The Ben Pauling runner showed promise before fading at Southwell and could surprise if fully effective after his recent procedure. His hold-up style needs a strong pace collapse to be effective in this tactical setup.

Lheur De GloireWalk The PlankIntenzoCawthorne Cracker

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Catchim must settle early and not get keen in front as any rushing could compromise his stamina reserves

WATCH

Intenzo's jumping under pressure given three disappointing efforts since his promising debut second at Sedgefield

NOTE

Walk The Plank's fitness after 71-day break and whether he can reproduce his Huntingdon battling qualities

WATCH

Lheur De Gloire's wind operation effectiveness as he faded badly before the procedure at Southwell

NOTE

The pace through the early stages as all hold-up horses need a strong gallop to be competitive

8:42 — Half Year Annual Badges On Sale Now Handicap Hurdle

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Iolaos Du Mou to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Paragon led; the map had Iolaos Du Mou in front.

Bunker Bay won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Iolaos Du Mou

Prominent · 2

Ruler LegendParagon

Midfield · 3

Bunker BayRed TrailMelosa

Hold Up · 2

Made AllAssorda

Iolaos Du Mou is marked as a non-runner but was the only confirmed front-runner, leaving Ruler Legend and Paragon as the most likely pace-setters from their prominent styles. With six hold-up horses in an 8-runner field, the early pace will be modest as Ruler Legend and Paragon won't need to work hard to establish position. The race will develop into a tactical affair with plenty of horse left for the final half-mile, creating a scenario where patient tactics and finishing kick matter most. This shape heavily favours hold-up horses who can produce late acceleration.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If the early pace is modest as expected with limited pressure on the leaders

The race becomes a sprint from the final half-mile where patient tactics prevail. Late-running horses with finishing speed can pick off the early leaders who've had an easy time of it.

Made AllAssordaBunker BayMelosa

Ruler Legend Controls

20% probability

If Ruler Legend uses his course form to dictate from the front without serious challenge

His two wins here this season give him tactical advantage and he can time his effort perfectly. The prominent runner gets first run on the hold-up brigade.

Ruler LegendParagonMade AllBunker Bay

Pace Collapse Finish

12% probability

If both Ruler Legend and Paragon go too slowly and get caught napping

The race turns into a messy scramble where positioning becomes crucial and the best-positioned horse wins. Experience and racecraft decide the outcome rather than pure ability.

AssordaMade AllRuler LegendRed Trail

Early Burn-Up

3% probability

If Ruler Legend and Paragon engage in an unexpected pace duel from early

Both prominent runners compromise their chances by going too fast too soon. Any horse with tactical speed from mid-division can capitalize on their mistakes.

Bunker BayRed TrailParagonMelosa

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ruler Legend's early positioning will dictate the entire race shape given his prominent style and course advantage

WATCH

Made All's finishing kick from three weeks ago suggests he could be very dangerous if getting the right tactical setup

NOTE

Bunker Bay needs monitoring for any breathing equipment changes after reported issues at Perth last month

WATCH

The absence of Iolaos Du Mou removes the main pace pressure and makes this more tactical than expected

NOTE

Red Trail's fitness after 342-day absence will show early if he's ready to reproduce last year's surprise placing effort

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 28 May 2026.

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