Archive›Market Rasen · 5 April 2026

Market Rasen

5 April 2026 · 6 races

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2:13 — Live Racing Streaming At CopyBet Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m4½f · Good · CLS4 · 6 runners

3 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Tread Carefully led, as the map showed.

Emerald Breeze won at 2.88 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Destination UnkownTread CarefullyAde Boy

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 1

Exiguus

Hold Up · 2

PertempsEmerald Breeze

Ade Boy, Tread Carefully, and Destination Unkown will forge a strong gallop from the outset, with three confirmed front runners ensuring a genuine test of stamina over this staying trip. The pace will be relentless early with these leaders fighting for position, likely stringing out the field and creating gaps. With Destination Unkown carrying a fading tendency and both other leaders needing to prove stamina credentials, the sustained pace will set up the race perfectly for the hold-up horses. This race shape strongly favours the patient, hold-up style runners who can deliver their challenge late when the early pace-setters weaken.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

55% probability

If the three front runners maintain a fierce gallop through the middle stages

The strong early pace will take its toll on Ade Boy, Tread Carefully and Destination Unkown, allowing the patient hold-up runners to sweep past in the final furlong. Emerald Breeze and Pertemps are ideally positioned to capitalize on this collapse.

Emerald BreezePertempsExiguusTread Carefully

Front runner survives

25% probability

If Ade Boy or Tread Carefully can dictate a more measured pace than expected

One of the pace-setters manages their effort better and kicks clear when the others fold, holding off the late challengers. Recent winner Ade Boy has shown the stamina to last home at this trip.

Ade BoyTread CarefullyEmerald BreezePertemps

Messy scramble finish

12% probability

If Destination Unkown's fading tendency disrupts the early pace-setting

The uneven gallop creates a tactical affair where positioning becomes crucial in the straight. The more experienced campaigners who can adapt to the changing pace dynamics will prevail.

PertempsEmerald BreezeAde BoyExiguus

Outsider benefits from chaos

8% probability

If the pace collapses completely in the final half-mile

Exiguus, despite his lower rating, finds himself perfectly placed as the higher-rated horses neutralize each other. His hold-up style allows him to pick up the pieces when others stop.

ExiguusEmerald BreezePertempsAde Boy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Destination Unkown's jumping and stamina after his long absence, as his fading tendency could disrupt the entire pace dynamic

WATCH

The battle between Ade Boy and Tread Carefully for early control, as the winner of this duel may determine the race outcome

NOTE

Emerald Breeze's position turning for home, as his hold-up style needs the strong pace to materialize for optimal conditions

WATCH

James Bowen's positioning on Pertemps in the early stages, as getting too close to the pace could compromise his finishing kick

NOTE

The overall pace through the middle stages, as any slackening could favor the front runners and disadvantage the hold-up horses

2:48 — Mariner Packaging Sing When We're Fishing Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle

2m4½f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Lead contested: De Deli Counter v Perfect ArchHISTORIC

How it ran

De Deli Counter led, as the map showed.

De Deli Counter won at 6.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

De Deli CounterPerfect Arch

Prominent · 2

Lemon LeafBy The Grace

Midfield · 4

MelosaLillistarBlue BearRaincloud

Hold Up · 4

Fine As WineTimes A WastinGms PrinceInlet

De Deli Counter and Perfect Arch will dispute the early lead, with both possessing confirmed front-running styles that should ensure an honest gallop from the outset. The presence of two genuine pace-setters means the early tempo will be solid rather than crawling, creating a true test over this stamina-sapping trip. With most of the field adopting hold-up tactics, there's a clear split between early leaders and back-markers, leaving few horses to fill the mid-division gaps. This race shape strongly favours the prominent racers who can sit just off the pace-setters without getting drawn into their early battle, positioning them perfectly to strike when the leaders tire.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Racers Dominate

55% probability

If De Deli Counter and Perfect Arch set sensible fractions without burning each other out early

The honest gallop perfectly sets up horses like By The Grace and Lemon Leaf who can track the pace without pressure. Their prominent styles avoid both the early speed battle and the traffic problems that will engulf the hold-up horses in the straight.

By The GraceLemon LeafGms PrinceFine As Wine

Hold-Up Horse Charges Late

25% probability

If the two leaders go too fast early and create a strong pace collapse scenario

The genuine gallop stretches the field and allows a classy closer to weave through tired horses in the final furlong. Quality hold-up performers like Gms Prince can exploit their superior RPR ratings when others have shot their bolt.

Gms PrinceLillistarTimes A WastinFine As Wine

Front Runner Stays Strong

12% probability

If either De Deli Counter or Perfect Arch gets an uncontested lead through smart jockeyship

Without serious pressure, the leader conserves energy and proves hard to peg back up the hill. De Deli Counter's superior rating and recent third at this trip makes him the more likely survivor of the two pace-setters.

De Deli CounterPerfect ArchBy The GraceLemon Leaf

Pace Collapse Chaos

8% probability

If both leaders tie up dramatically and the prominent horses also get caught in the battle

The race becomes a lottery with mid-division hold-up horses inheriting a race that falls apart. Horses like Fine As Wine or Times A Wastin could benefit from the carnage despite their recent poor form.

Times A WastinFine As WineBlue BearInlet

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Perfect Arch and De Deli Counter could burn each other out if they engage in a prolonged speed duel from flagfall

WATCH

The large group of hold-up horses may encounter serious traffic problems in a bunched finish up Market Rasen's hill

NOTE

By The Grace's prominent running style gives him a significant tactical advantage in a race lacking mid-division pace

WATCH

Lillistar returns from a 72-day break which could compromise his finishing kick despite his high RPR rating

NOTE

The good going conditions favour most runners though some like Fine As Wine have shown better form on softer surfaces

3:23 — CopyBet Supporting UK Horse Racing Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Achille Des Rocs likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Ballynaheer won at 6.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Achille Des Rocs

Prominent · 1

Ballynaheer

Midfield · 1

Rodney Bay

Hold Up · 1

Dangerous Touch

Achille Des Rocs will control the tempo from the front with Ballynaheer and Rodney Bay sitting prominently behind, while Dangerous Touch drops in last as the only confirmed hold-up horse. With just four runners and one clear pacesetter, this creates a moderate tempo that won't stretch the field early. The lack of pace pressure means Achille Des Rocs can dictate terms and potentially steal a march, while the prominent runners can track without stress. This tactical setup clearly favours the front-running and prominent styles over hold-up tactics, as Dangerous Touch will have limited pace to aim at in the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Controls

45% probability

If Achille Des Rocs maintains a steady tempo without being pressured early.

The pacesetter gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear before the prominent runners can respond effectively. This scenario rewards the horse that can control the race from pillar to post.

Achille Des RocsBallynaheerRodney BayDangerous Touch

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If Ballynaheer or Rodney Bay track the leader closely and time their challenge perfectly.

The prominent runners benefit from following the pace before delivering a well-timed challenge in the final half-mile. Their positioning allows them to respond quickly when the pacesetter comes under pressure.

BallynaheerRodney BayAchille Des RocsDangerous Touch

Hold-Up Horse Rallies

15% probability

If Dangerous Touch finds enough pace to aim at despite the modest tempo.

The hold-up horse uses superior finishing speed to overhaul the leaders despite the tactical disadvantage. This requires the front-runners to come back to them in the final stages.

Dangerous TouchBallynaheerAchille Des RocsRodney Bay

Pace Collapses Late

10% probability

If all the front-runners tie up due to early tactical battles or stamina failures.

The race becomes a war of attrition where tactical positioning matters less than pure stamina and finishing kick. The horse with the most energy left wins regardless of early tactics.

Dangerous TouchRodney BayBallynaheerAchille Des Rocs

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Achille Des Rocs showing any signs of rustiness early given the 348-day absence, which could completely undermine the front-running tactics.

WATCH

Rodney Bay beginning to struggle from the second-last fence onwards as his known finishing fade could eliminate him despite good positioning.

WATCH

Dangerous Touch being too far back at halfway, as insufficient pace to aim at will leave the hold-up horse with too much ground to make up.

NOTE

Ballynaheer's positioning turning for home, as the prominent runner with best recent form could be perfectly placed to strike.

NOTE

The overall tempo through the first mile, as a genuine test will suit stamina types while a crawling pace favours pure speed.

3:58 — First Past The Post At CopyBet Handicap Chase

2m1f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Gower Prince to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Kally Des Bruyeres led; the map had Gower Prince in front.

Kally Des Bruyeres won at 3.25 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Gower Prince

Prominent · 2

Forsa BayBeat The Edge

Midfield · 3

Kally Des BruyeresCawthorne CrackerLone Soldier

Hold Up · 2

StarmanIt's Party Time

Gower Prince provides the only confirmed pace-setting threat in this 8-runner field, likely to get an uncontested lead with Beat The Edge and Forsa Bay sitting prominent but not pressuring early. The sustainable tempo will allow the front-runner to dictate terms through the middle sections, creating a tactical race where positioning matters more than raw pace pressure. With six hold-up horses crowding the rear, traffic problems are inevitable in the home straight as they all seek racing room simultaneously. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can secure clean positions early and avoid the scramble.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Wins

45% probability

If Gower Prince jumps cleanly and gets an easy lead without serious pressure

The O'Neill runner can measure his fractions perfectly and has enough class at OR 99 to repel late challenges. Six hold-up horses create a bunched finish behind him but none can make up the ground against his tactical advantage.

Gower PrinceBeat The EdgeForsa BayCawthorne Cracker

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If Beat The Edge or Forsa Bay can sit close enough to Gower Prince while staying out of trouble

Hammond's improving yard form (3/24) gives Beat The Edge the tactical edge from a prominent position, while Forsa Bay's recent third at Market Rasen shows current form. Both avoid the hold-up cavalry charge.

Beat The EdgeForsa BayGower PrinceKally Des Bruyeres

Hold-Up Hero Finds Gap

15% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely strong or one hold-up horse gets a clear run through

Cawthorne Cracker's excellent going record (2W5P on good) and long absence could produce a fresh performance if finding room. The Greenall/Guerriero team know how to place one despite poor recent strike rate.

Cawthorne CrackerKally Des BruyeresStarmanLone Soldier

Pace Collapse Suits Finisher

10% probability

If Gower Prince stops quickly and the prominent runners fade, creating a slow overall time

The entire complexion changes with hold-up horses suddenly advantaged by a tactical finish. Starman's RPR 108 and recent placed efforts suggest he's the pick of the back-markers if this unfolds.

StarmanLone SoldierIt's Party TimeCawthorne Cracker

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Gower Prince jumping fluency early - any mistake hands initiative to prominent runners and changes entire race dynamic

WATCH

Traffic problems in home straight with six hold-up horses likely bunched together seeking same racing room

NOTE

Beat The Edge benefiting from Micky Hammond's excellent recent yard form (3/24) compared to several struggling trainers

WATCH

Apprentice riders Stevens and Callwood holding prominent positions in tactical finish where experience matters

NOTE

Going consistency across Market Rasen card suggests conditions ideal for those with proven good ground form

4:33 — Best Odds Guaranteed Overnight At CopyBet Handicap Hurdle

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Hijo De La Luna likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Hijo De La Luna led, as the map showed.

Ruler Legend won at 3.25 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hijo De La Luna

Prominent · 2

Cawthorne BankerRuler Legend

Midfield · 3

Bunker BaySusiesparkleMacho Sun

Hold Up · 3

Diesel LineKalkarooBouboule

Hijo De La Luna and Ruler Legend are the natural pace-setters in a field dominated by hold-up horses, with Cawthorne Banker likely tracking prominently. With seven of nine runners preferring to be held up (Kalkaroo, Bouboule, Diesel Line, Bunker Bay, Macho Sun, Susiesparkle), this creates a tactical bottleneck where positioning and timing become critical. The modest early pace set by Hijo De La Luna should create a searching test from the last hurdle as the field compresses. This race shape strongly favours the prominent racers and those hold-up horses with proven tactical speed, as they can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will engulf the back-markers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Pairs Dominate

45% probability

If Hijo De La Luna and Ruler Legend maintain sensible fractions without going too fast early

The hold-up brigade get caught in traffic as the pace quickens from the last hurdle, allowing the early positioned horses to kick clear. Cawthorne Banker's prominent style and O'Neill stable form gives him the edge over the front-running Hijo De La Luna.

Cawthorne BankerRuler LegendHijo De La LunaDiesel Line

Hold-Up Hero Strikes

30% probability

If the early pace becomes too steady and the field remains tightly bunched turning for home

A patient hold-up horse with tactical speed can weave through and time their challenge perfectly. Kalkaroo's class edge and Twiston-Davies partnership becomes decisive, while Diesel Line's proven course form at this trip pays dividends.

KalkarooDiesel LineBoubouleBunker Bay

Front Runner Wires Field

15% probability

If Hijo De La Luna gets an uncontested lead and the hold-up horses leave their runs too late

The patient tactics backfire as the leader gets first run and stays on strongly up the hill. Hijo De La Luna's stamina-laden pedigree and fresh legs after 289 days off prove the winning combination.

Hijo De La LunaCawthorne BankerKalkarooRuler Legend

Tactical Speed Surprise

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely and it becomes a sprint finish from the last hurdle

The hold-up horses with the best finishing kick and least weight get home in a bunch finish. Bouboule's higher topspeed rating and light weight of 155lbs sees him flash home late.

BoubouleMacho SunSusiesparkleBunker Bay

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hijo De La Luna could steal this if allowed an uncontested lead as the hold-up horses may leave their challenges too late

WATCH

Traffic problems are inevitable with seven hold-up horses - watch for Kalkaroo and Diesel Line getting clear runs

NOTE

Ruler Legend's early positioning could be crucial as he may be the only horse tracking the leader closely

WATCH

Bunker Bay and Bouboule both carry light weights and could benefit if the pace collapses into a sprint finish

NOTE

Cawthorne Banker's recent course form and O'Neill stable confidence makes him the one to beat from a tactical perspective

5:05 — Safer Gambling At CopyBet Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

2m½f · Good · CLS4 · 7 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 5 April 2026.

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