Archive›Market Rasen · 8 May 2026

Market Rasen

8 May 2026 · 6 races

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2:10 — Molson Coors Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m½f · Good · CLS4 · 10 runners

Kenobi likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Fidendum and Calibos and Kenobi led, as the map showed.

Fidendum won at 4.20 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kenobi

Prominent · 3

EdelakCalibosPour Tout Le Monde

Midfield · 3

Heights LanePapa OscarPink Walls

Hold Up · 3

PopalotBerks And BucksFidendum

Kenobi is the sole confirmed front runner and will set a comfortable, uncontested pace from the outset. With limited prominent runners like Edelak, Calibos and Pour Tout Le Monde unlikely to apply serious early pressure, the race will develop into a steady gallop with Kenobi controlling proceedings. The pace will allow hold-up horses like Fidendum, Popalot and Berks And Bucks to get into comfortable tracking positions before the business end. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can benefit from the methodical gallop and finish with late runs over the shorter trip.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

65% probability

If Kenobi sets a pedestrian pace without pressure from prominent runners

The moderate early gallop allows closers to position perfectly and unleash telling late runs, with the reduced trip suiting those who stay well. Hold-up specialists get the ideal scenario to showcase their finishing kicks.

FidendumPopalotHeights LaneBerks And Bucks

Front runners steal march

20% probability

If Kenobi maintains his lead and the pace doesn't quicken sufficiently for closers

The uncontested leader builds an unassailable advantage while hold-up horses find insufficient pace to reel him in over this shorter distance. Early pace proves decisive in a tactical affair.

KenobiCalibosEdelakPour Tout Le Monde

Prominent runners surge late

10% probability

If Edelak or Calibos track Kenobi closely and challenge strongly from two out

The Dan Skelton-trained Edelak or flat-experienced Calibos use their tactical speed to bridge from prominent positions and overhaul the leader. Mid-race positioning proves optimal for making winning moves.

EdelakCalibosKenobiFidendum

Maiden chaos unfolds

5% probability

If multiple horses make jumping errors or Fidendum repeats his running-out antics

The race fragments due to hurdle mistakes or wayward jumping from inexperienced runners, creating an open scramble. Any horse avoiding trouble can capitalize on others' misfortunes.

Heights LanePapa OscarPink WallsPour Tout Le Monde

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Fidendum's headstrong nature after jinxing right and running out when leading at Hereford last month

WATCH

Kenobi's stamina reserves as he attempts to wire the field despite poor recent pulled-up efforts

NOTE

Heights Lane's debut performance for the Parkinson/Smith partnership given lightly raced profile

WATCH

Edelak's fitness after 153-day layoff despite returning for the in-form Dan Skelton stable

NOTE

Berks And Bucks' response to tongue-tie addition after being pulled up twice over longer distances

2:45 — Lucas Machinery Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Bouquet De Paris likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Character Testing led; the map had Bouquet De Paris in front.

Allibaba won at 2.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bouquet De Paris

Prominent · 3

Character TestingKlapton BoyLord Of The Glance

Midfield · 4

Granny BSusiesparkleMacho SunAllibaba

Hold Up · 3

Made AllBunker BayBeorma

Bouquet De Paris is the only confirmed front runner in this field and should get an uncontested lead, setting a sustainable pace without pressure from the prominent runners Character Testing, Klapton Boy, and Lord Of The Glance. The bulk of the field comprises hold-up horses including Granny B, Bunker Bay, Made All, Macho Sun, Allibaba, Beorma, and Susiesparkle, who will likely settle towards the rear. With minimal pace pressure early and a relatively sedate gallop expected over this trip, the race should develop into a sprint finish where those held up can unleash their finishing kicks. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up horses who can benefit from the slow early pace and time their challenge.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Bouquet De Paris sets a slow uncontested pace as expected

The lack of early pace allows the hold-up brigade to close strongly in the final furlong with their superior finishing kicks intact. Character Testing and Lord Of The Glance may find themselves outpaced by the late closers despite their prominent positions.

Granny BBunker BayMade AllCharacter Testing

Prominent Runners Capitalize

25% probability

If the prominent horses can dictate terms without going too fast early

Character Testing and Lord Of The Glance can use their tactical positioning to kick clear before the hold-up horses get organized. The honest gallop suits their style and they have enough class to hold off late challenges.

Character TestingLord Of The GlanceBouquet De ParisGranny B

Front Runner Wire-to-Wire

8% probability

If Bouquet De Paris gets loose on the lead and none of the prominent runners track her closely enough

The mare builds an unassailable advantage through the middle stages that proves too much for the hold-up horses to peg back. Her previous front-running tactics at Hereford show she can sustain a long lead when allowed to.

Bouquet De ParisCharacter TestingLord Of The GlanceGranny B

Chaos Benefits Outsider

2% probability

If multiple horses make jumping errors or get hampered at crucial stages

The disruption to the expected pace scenario allows a longer-priced runner like Made All or Allibaba to benefit from a cleaner passage. Their inexperience or long absence becomes less relevant in a messy finish.

Made AllAllibabaMacho SunSusiesparkle

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Bouquet De Paris for any early pressure from prominent runners which could compromise her stamina reserves

WATCH

Watch Lord Of The Glance for jumping at the final flight given his recent unseat when well-placed at Plumpton

WATCH

Watch Bunker Bay for any respiratory distress after making noise last time at Perth

NOTE

Watch Character Testing's positioning turning for home as he needs clear running room for his finishing kick

NOTE

Watch Made All's jumping technique on hurdles debut despite previous experience over obstacles

3:15 — Tiff And Ang Go West Stakes Handicap Chase

2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Cloudy Wednesday to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Cloudy Wednesday and Let Me Go Boys led, as the map showed.

Lone Soldier won at 3.75 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Cloudy Wednesday

Prominent · 1

Forsa Bay

Midfield · 3

El MuchachoLet Me Go BoysLone Soldier

Hold Up · 2

Jasmin De CotteIsle Of Sark

Cloudy Wednesday is the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate proceedings from the flag, likely setting a manageable gallop without pressure from Forsa Bay who sits prominent but won't force the issue. The large contingent of hold-up horses (Isle Of Sark, Jasmin De Cotte, Let Me Go Boys, Lone Soldier, El Muchacho) creates a bunched field through the middle stages, with most waiting to strike late. Over this staying trip on good ground, the lack of pace pressure early should set up a strongly-run finish where the best stayers can close from off the pace. This race shape clearly favours the hold-up performers who can quicken late over those needing to lead or race prominently.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Brigade Dominates

65% probability

If Cloudy Wednesday sets steady fractions and the race becomes a stamina test

The patient tactics of the hold-up horses perfectly suit the finish, with the field compressing into the final half-mile before the strongest stayers assert. El Muchacho and Jasmin De Cotte can use their superior RPR figures to best effect in a true staying test.

El MuchachoJasmin De CotteIsle Of SarkLet Me Go Boys

Front Runner Survives

20% probability

If Cloudy Wednesday maintains his form from this race last year and the chasers leave their runs too late

The 10-year-old's experience at the track pays dividends as he times his effort perfectly, holding off late challenges in similar fashion to his narrow defeat here previously. Forsa Bay's prominent position gives her the best chance of the chasers.

Cloudy WednesdayForsa BayEl MuchachoJasmin De Cotte

Class Tells Late

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely in the final furlong and raw ability decides the outcome

The highest-rated performers Jasmin De Cotte and Isle Of Sark use their class advantage to surge clear when it matters most, despite the tactical disadvantage of giving the leader too much rope. Their superior ratings overcome the unfavorable pace scenario.

Jasmin De CotteIsle Of SarkEl MuchachoCloudy Wednesday

Pace Collapse Chaos

5% probability

If no horse can sustain a finishing kick and the race falls apart tactically

The moderate early gallop leaves every horse flat-footed in the closing stages, turning the contest into a lottery where any of the held-up horses could prevail on sheer fortune. Lone Soldier's recent Warwick second suggests he might have more left than most.

Lone SoldierLet Me Go BoysForsa BayEl Muchacho

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Cloudy Wednesday gets too easy a lead early - if unchallenged through the first mile, he could steal a march on the field

WATCH

Let Me Go Boys showing signs of needing the run after 186 days off - watch for any market confidence or lack thereof

NOTE

Jasmin De Cotte and Isle Of Sark traveling strongly turning for home - their class could override tactical disadvantage if race develops slowly

WATCH

El Muchacho's jumping under pressure in the final half-mile - has been prone to errors when asked for maximum effort

NOTE

Forsa Bay's position at halfway - needs to be handy enough to strike from prominent position rather than getting caught behind horses

3:50 — Summer Plate Ladies Day Saturday 18th July Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Lead contested: Bumpy Evans v Ira HayesHISTORIC

How it ran

Classic King led; the map had Bumpy Evans and Ira Hayes in front.

Classic King won at 3.75 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Bumpy EvansIra Hayes

Prominent · 2

AnnsamGiovanni Change

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

CourtlandClassic King

Bumpy Evans and Ira Hayes will contest the early lead, with Bumpy Evans the more experienced front-runner likely to dictate terms from the outset. Giovanni Change and Annsam will track in prominent positions behind the leaders, while Courtland and Classic King will be held up at the rear looking to mount late challenges. The dual pace angle should create an honest gallop over this stamina-testing 3m trip on good ground. This race shape clearly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and strike when the leaders weaken, rather than hold-up horses facing a potentially strong tempo.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Strikes

45% probability

If the two leaders maintain a solid but sustainable gallop through the middle stages

Giovanni Change or Annsam can track the pace and have enough left to reel in the leaders when they inevitably tire after 2m4f. Their prominent style perfectly suits picking off weakening front-runners over this stamina test.

Giovanni ChangeAnnsamClassic KingCourtland

Front Runner Survives

30% probability

If Bumpy Evans gets soft fractions and the field allows him an easy lead

The experienced front-runner can dictate terms and have enough left to repel late challenges, especially with his proven 3m ability. Ira Hayes could also benefit if Bumpy Evans folds, inheriting a winning position.

Bumpy EvansIra HayesGiovanni ChangeAnnsam

Hold-Up Horse Charges

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely with both leaders going too slow early on

Courtland or Classic King can use their class advantage to sweep past a crawling field in the final half-mile. However, this requires the front pair to gift them ideal conditions by going pedestrian.

CourtlandClassic KingGiovanni ChangeBumpy Evans

Complete Pace Collapse

10% probability

If both Bumpy Evans and Ira Hayes fail to maintain the gallop and fall away tamely

The race becomes a sprint finish between the remaining quartet, potentially suiting whichever horse has most left in the tank. Giovanni Change's course record could prove decisive in a messy finish.

Giovanni ChangeAnnsamClassic KingCourtland

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Annsam for any signs of the jumping errors that caused his recent falls - three non-completions in a row is concerning.

WATCH

Watch Bumpy Evans and Ira Hayes early - if they go too fast in the first mile, both could fold tamely and gift the race to those behind.

NOTE

Watch Courtland for any respiratory distress given the recent wind operation after his disappointing comeback run.

WATCH

Watch Classic King's jumping - his fence errors even when winning suggest he could easily throw away a winning position.

NOTE

Watch Giovanni Change's position turning for home - his course experience makes him dangerous if close enough at the business end.

4:20 — Victor Lucas Memorial Handicap Hurdle

2m7f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Huffin An A Puffin likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ryebridge and Idefix De Ciergues led; the map had Huffin An A Puffin in front.

Ryebridge won at 5.50 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Huffin An A Puffin

Prominent · 3

Idefix De CierguesPorter In The ParkInto The Park

Midfield · 5

CoumeenooleChampagne TwistEscapologistEbony WarriorRyebridge

Hold Up · 2

Tiger OrchidDramatic License

Huffin An A Puffin is the only confirmed front runner in this field and should dictate terms from the start without significant early pressure. The majority of runners are prominent racers (Ebony Warrior, Champagne Twist, Escapologist, Into The Park, Porter In The Park, Idefix De Ciergues, Ryebridge, Coumeenoole) who will settle just behind, creating a bunched group tracking the leader. Tiger Orchid and Dramatic License as hold-up horses will need the pace to develop sufficiently over this 2m7f trip to mount their challenges. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can track the steady pace and have tactical speed to strike, rather than pure front runners or hold-up horses who may find the pace too honest or not strong enough respectively.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Racers Dominate

55% probability

If the prominent pack successfully tracks Huffin An A Puffin and the pace stays manageable.

The large group of handy racers can all travel comfortably before the tactical speed battle begins in earnest from 3 out. This suits horses like Idefix De Ciergues and Coumeenoole who have shown they can quicken from prominent positions.

Idefix De CierguesCoumeenooleEscapologistEbony Warrior

Sustained Pace Suits

25% probability

If Huffin An A Puffin maintains a strong gallop that stretches the field.

The honest pace plays to the strengths of horses with proven stamina at this trip who won't be inconvenienced by the test. Escapologist's C&D win and Porter In The Park's staying credentials become key assets.

EscapologistPorter In The ParkTiger OrchidIdefix De Ciergues

Hold-Up Challenge

12% probability

If the pace becomes tactical enough to allow Tiger Orchid and Dramatic License to be competitive.

The two hold-up horses get the race run to suit their style, with Tiger Orchid's recent Wetherby form putting him in the frame. However, the weight of prominent racers makes this scenario less likely to develop.

Tiger OrchidDramatic LicenseCoumeenooleIdefix De Ciergues

Pace Collapse Surprise

8% probability

If Huffin An A Puffin fails to maintain his effort and the race becomes a sprint.

The lack of other natural leaders could create a messy pace that opens the door for an outsider with tactical speed. Ryebridge's recent improved form could be significant in a slowly-run affair.

RyebridgeChampagne TwistEbony WarriorInto The Park

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Huffin An A Puffin's respiratory issues could create a pace collapse if he fails to maintain his effort

WATCH

Idefix De Ciergues' temperament issues could surface again despite recent improvement

NOTE

Tiger Orchid needs the pace to develop properly to utilise his hold-up style effectively

NOTE

Coumeenoole's 9lb penalty for Bangor win may prove decisive in a competitive renewal

WATCH

Several prominent racers returning from 40+ day breaks may lack peak fitness

4:52 — Fiver Friday Raceday Friday 12th June Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

2m4½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

De Deli Counter to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Nottodaybobo and De Deli Counter led, as the map showed.

Nottodaybobo won at 5.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

De Deli Counter

Prominent · 1

Nottodaybobo

Midfield · 4

Forest SpiritMatouryBlue BearBargain Hunter

Hold Up · 3

AssordaBelow The BeltTop Flight Century

De Deli Counter is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start, having won over course and distance from the front last month. With Nottodaybobo the only prominent runner, there's minimal early pressure which allows De Deli Counter to bowl along at a sustainable gallop. The majority of the field are hold-up horses (Top Flight Century, Assorda, Matoury, Blue Bear, Below The Belt, Bargain Hunter) who will be content to let the leader go. This creates a tactical race where the front runner can control the fractions and kick clear, heavily favouring the leader and any horse that can get into an early position.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

65% probability

If De Deli Counter gets an uncontested lead and dictates fractions

The 5-year-old can replicate his recent C&D victory, controlling the pace in first-time cheekpieces before kicking clear approaching the final hurdle. The lack of early pressure allows him to save energy for a decisive move, with any prominent runner like Nottodaybobo needing to bridge a significant gap.

De Deli CounterNottodayboboTop Flight CenturyMatoury

Hold-Up Horse Rally

20% probability

If the pace becomes too steady and allows closers to sweep up

The abundance of hold-up horses creates traffic problems and only the best stayers can unleash late kicks. Top Flight Century and Matoury have the class to overcome tactical disadvantages if they get clear runs.

Top Flight CenturyMatouryAssordaBlue Bear

Pace Collapse Finish

10% probability

If De Deli Counter goes too fast early or tires from the front

A genuine end-to-end gallop suits the more experienced hold-up performers who can time their challenges. Blue Bear's course form and Nottodaybobo's recent Newcastle third suggest they can capitalize on pace collapse.

Blue BearNottodayboboBelow The BeltAssorda

Outsider Ambush

5% probability

If the main contenders fail to fire and the handicapper has been lenient

Bargain Hunter steps up significantly in trip for his handicap debut on a featherweight, while Below The Belt showed glimpses at Chepstow. Both need career-best efforts but carry less weight than rivals.

Bargain HunterBelow The BeltBlue BearMatoury

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

De Deli Counter must be monitored early - if he gets away smoothly and builds a lead approaching halfway, he becomes very hard to peg back

WATCH

Watch for traffic problems in the home straight with six hold-up horses needing room - any horse getting a clear run gains a significant advantage

WATCH

Nottodaybobo needs to show early intent and get into a prominent position - if he gets too far back he lacks the finishing kick to recover

NOTE

Top Flight Century requires a career-best effort to win but his Sedgefield form gives him a chance if reproducing that level

NOTE

Monitor the pace early - if De Deli Counter goes too fast the race could collapse in favor of the late-running brigade

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 8 May 2026.

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