Archive›Musselburgh · 29 April 2026

Musselburgh

29 April 2026 · 7 races

✓ Historic — full access

Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

1:35 — EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Qualifier) (GBB Race)

5f · Good · NOV · 4 runners

Hickory Lad to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Hickory Lad and Stay On Tab led, as the map showed.

Hickory Lad won at 1.36 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hickory Lad

Prominent · 2

State Of GoldStay On Tab

Midfield · 1

Kodi Bear Light

Hold Up · 0

None

Hickory Lad will dictate terms from the front with no obvious pace pressure in this small field. State Of Gold and Stay On Tab are likely to race prominently behind him, but neither showed the early pace to challenge for the lead. The lone leader should get comfortable splits through the early stages, setting up a tactical race where positioning matters more than sustained pressure. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can avoid traffic problems in the straight.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hickory Lad Controls

55% probability

If Hickory Lad gets easy early fractions and kicks clear turning for home

The favourite gets first run on his rivals and has enough in hand from his Thirsk second to hold on. His class edge over this field becomes decisive when he's not under pressure early.

Hickory LadKodi Bear LightState Of GoldStay On Tab

Kodi Bear Light Pounces

25% probability

If the Burke newcomer shows significant ability on debut and travels strongly

Kodi Bear Light picks up the pieces late as others fade, with the strong stable form (10/41 in 14 days) suggesting this one is well-schooled. The breeding suggests 5f speed that could be potent fresh.

Kodi Bear LightHickory LadState Of GoldStay On Tab

State Of Gold Bounces

12% probability

If State Of Gold settles better and the lost shoe was the main issue at Redcar

The filly gets a confidence-boosting run in behind Hickory Lad and finds more than her debut effort suggested. Her early market support suggests connections expected better than that eighth place.

State Of GoldHickory LadKodi Bear LightStay On Tab

Stay On Tab Improves

8% probability

If Stay On Tab settles much better and the step up in ground helps significantly

The Jardine runner benefits from a more patient ride and the better surface allows him to stay on where he faded badly on soft ground. His keen racing remains the biggest concern.

Stay On TabHickory LadKodi Bear LightState Of Gold

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Hickory Lad gets away with very slow early fractions - could make him unstoppable.

WATCH

Monitor Kodi Bear Light's market moves as any support would signal Burke confidence.

WATCH

Check if State Of Gold shows early speed to press Hickory Lad or settles in behind.

NOTE

Watch Stay On Tab's early tactics - if he races keenly again he'll fade like last time.

NOTE

Observe if Andrew Mullen drops Stay On Tab out further back to help his settling.

2:05 — Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Riffa Spirit likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Riffa Spirit led, as the map showed.

Fille Unique won at 4.00. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Riffa Spirit

Prominent · 2

Fille UniqueMoretons

Midfield · 2

Gillali LassData Fata Secutus

Hold Up · 2

Realistic DreamPivotal Terms

Riffa Spirit is the only confirmed front-runner in this seven-horse field and should get an uncontested lead over this sharp 5f at Musselburgh. With Fille Unique, Moretons, and Gillali Lass likely to press forward but not challenge Riffa Spirit's early position, the pace should be honest but not suicidal. The hold-up horses Pivotal Terms, Realistic Dream, and Data Fata Secutus will need to rely on the pace collapsing in the final furlong. This race shape strongly favours the prominent racers who can track the leader without getting into an early speed duel.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Holds

45% probability

If Riffa Spirit gets soft fractions and isn't pressed early

The front-runner controls the tempo and has enough left to repel late challenges, while prominent horses battle for the places. Riffa Spirit's recent Southwell fourth showed stamina when leading, making him hard to peg back if unopposed.

Riffa SpiritFille UniqueGillali LassMoretons

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If the early pace is honest but sustainable allowing tracking horses to pounce

Fille Unique or Gillali Lass get perfect trips behind Riffa Spirit before swooping late over this speed-favouring track. Their prominent style gets them close enough without the workload of making the running.

Fille UniqueGillali LassRiffa SpiritMoretons

Hold-Up Horses Benefit

15% probability

If Riffa Spirit goes too fast early or gets pressured by the prominent group

The pace collapses dramatically in the final furlong allowing Pivotal Terms or Data Fata Secutus to storm home. Pivotal Terms' recent Newcastle win came with a strong finish that could translate to turf.

Pivotal TermsData Fata SecutusFille UniqueRealistic Dream

Pace Duel Opens Door

10% probability

If multiple horses challenge Riffa Spirit early creating a fierce gallop

Early speed horses tie up badly in the final 100 yards while a mid-division runner like Moretons or Realistic Dream picks up the pieces. This scenario requires tactical errors from prominent runners.

MoretonsRealistic DreamData Fata SecutusPivotal Terms

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Riffa Spirit getting uncontested fractions through the first 2f as only natural leader could prove decisive advantage

WATCH

Fille Unique's early positioning - if she settles kindly behind leader rather than fighting for lead she becomes major threat

WATCH

Data Fata Secutus pulling hard early would compromise her finishing kick like in previous outings

NOTE

Gillali Lass showing ring rustiness despite strong form before long absence

NOTE

Pivotal Terms needing genuine strong pace to set up her hold-up style over this minimum trip

2:40 — Edinburgh Rugby Handicap

1m4½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Glasses Up to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

As Fast As Wind and Cougar led; the map had Glasses Up in front.

As Fast As Wind won at 1.57 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Glasses Up

Prominent · 1

Falaise Blanc

Midfield · 4

Gallus NormanLieutenant LilyBlondinaStar Of Markinch

Hold Up · 3

As Fast As WindCougarSycamore Gap

Glasses Up will dictate from the front with Falaise Blanc likely to race prominently, creating a sustainable early gallop over this stamina-testing trip. With only one confirmed front-runner and several hold-up horses, the pace will be steady rather than searching early, allowing the field to bunch up entering the home straight. The combination of good going, a stiff 1m4½f trip, and limited early pressure means horses with finishing speed will get their chance to close strongly. This race shape clearly favours hold-up performers who can stay the trip and produce a late kick.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If Glasses Up sets modest fractions and the pace stays slow throughout

The patient riders get perfect positioning and the race becomes a sprint finish where class and acceleration matter most. Several hold-up types can unleash late runs simultaneously.

As Fast As WindCougarLieutenant LilySycamore Gap

Front Duo Controls

25% probability

If Glasses Up and Falaise Blanc work together and maintain strong gallop

They get first run on the field and hold off late challenges through superior positioning and fitness advantages. The hold-up horses leave their runs too late on the testing ground.

Glasses UpFalaise BlancAs Fast As WindCougar

Pace Collapse Sprint

12% probability

If the early pace is crawling and becomes tactical

The race turns into a messy scramble where positioning and luck in running become crucial factors. Horses that can quicken from any position hold major advantages over pure stayers.

Lieutenant LilyStar Of MarkinchFalaise BlancSycamore Gap

Strong Gallop Throughout

8% probability

If Falaise Blanc pushes Glasses Up into faster fractions than ideal

The sustained pace plays to genuine stayers and catches out horses that need to conserve energy for late kicks. Only the most robust hold-up horses survive the test.

As Fast As WindGallus NormanCougarBlondina

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Glasses Up could steal this if allowed uncontested lead, as veteran knows how to control fractions at this trip

WATCH

Cougar's fading pattern suggests fitness concerns despite class advantage when blinkers were applied

WATCH

As Fast As Wind's 233-day absence creates uncertainty despite solid recent hurdles form suggesting retained ability

NOTE

Falaise Blanc's first-time cheekpieces could spark improvement after disappointing recent all-weather runs

NOTE

Several hold-up horses may converge late creating traffic problems in home straight with limited racing room

3:15 — Hibernian Community Foundation Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Rosenpur likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Curious Rover and Rosenpur led, as the map showed.

Woohoo won at 9.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Rosenpur

Prominent · 2

Sugar Hill BabeCurious Rover

Midfield · 3

Water Of LeithWoohooKnicks

Hold Up · 2

Al HussarJm Jhingree

Rosenpur will make the early running from his prominent style, likely accompanied by Sugar Hill Babe and Curious Rover in the vanguard. With only one confirmed front-runner in Rosenpur, the pace should be sustainable rather than frantic over this minimum trip. The majority of the field are hold-up horses (Jm Jhingree, Water Of Leith, Knicks, Al Hussar, Woohoo) who will need to be produced late. This setup creates a tactical advantage for the prominent runners who can sit closer to a moderate pace and have less ground to make up.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

55% probability

If Rosenpur sets a controlled tempo without serious early pressure

The pace-setters can control the race from the front while the hold-up brigade get caught flat-footed behind a modest gallop. Rosenpur's recent Catterick near-miss and Sugar Hill Babe's C&D form make them hard to peg back.

RosenpurSugar Hill BabeCurious RoverAl Hussar

Hold-Up Horse Swoops

25% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong with multiple prominent runners competing

The hold-up horses get the perfect setup to unleash their finishing kicks as the leaders tire. Al Hussar's solid recent C&D form and Knicks's encouraging Thirsk return put them in the frame.

Al HussarKnicksJm JhingreeWater Of Leith

Rosenpur Wire-to-Wire

12% probability

If Rosenpur gets an uncontested lead and dictates throughout

His five wins around left-handed bends this season suggest he can control from the front when unopposed. The hold-up horses struggle to reel in a horse who knows how to win from the front.

RosenpurCurious RoverSugar Hill BabeAl Hussar

Longshot Breakthrough

8% probability

If the pace collapses completely or favorites underperform fitness-wise

Water Of Leith's prolific winning record or Woohoo's four 2025 sprint wins could surface if the market leaders fail to deliver. Both have questions to answer after recent disappointing efforts.

Water Of LeithWoohooJm JhingreeKnicks

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Rosenpur breaks smartly and gets an uncontested lead - his left-handed bend record makes him very dangerous

WATCH

Sugar Hill Babe travels kindly despite the 187-day layoff - previous fresh wins make her a live danger

NOTE

Al Hussar gets cover in the pack early - his recent C&D form makes him the most reliable hold-up option

WATCH

Curious Rover shows more early pace than last time when he led too long and weakened

NOTE

Water Of Leith moves into contention turning for home - his class could surface if others disappoint

3:50 — Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap

7f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Lead contested: Giorgio M v Tattie BogleHISTORIC

How it ran

Carolus Magnus and Mission Command led; the map had Giorgio M and Tattie Bogle in front.

Tattie Bogle won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Giorgio MTattie Bogle

Prominent · 2

Criminal ShoreCounting Cards

Midfield · 3

QazaqCarolus MagnusPenny Mountain

Hold Up · 3

CatalyseMission CommandBlack Storm

Giorgio M and Tattie Bogle will dispute the early lead, with both confirmed front-runners likely to go a good clip from the start. Counting Cards and Criminal Shore should race prominently just behind the leaders, while the majority including Qazaq, Catalyse, Mission Command, Black Storm, Carolus Magnus and Penny Mountain will settle further back. The strong pace from Giorgio M and Tattie Bogle should create an honest gallop throughout, stretching the field and setting up a tactical battle. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can benefit from the strong early pace and finish with late runs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Holds Up

65% probability

If Giorgio M and Tattie Bogle maintain their duel through halfway and beyond

The sustained pace will stretch the field and favour those with finishing kicks from off the pace. Hold-up specialists like Qazaq and Mission Command can time their runs perfectly in the final two furlongs.

QazaqMission CommandCatalyseBlack Storm

Early Leader Wires Field

20% probability

If Giorgio M or Tattie Bogle steals a march and gets first run on their rivals

One of the front-runners capitalizes on tactical positioning and maintains momentum when the pace softens. The prominent runners struggle to peg back the leader's advantage.

Giorgio MTattie BogleCounting CardsCriminal Shore

Prominent Horses Prevail

10% probability

If the early pace is moderate and Giorgio M/Tattie Bogle don't establish clear dominance

The race becomes more tactical with prominent runners able to track the leaders without pressure. Counting Cards and Criminal Shore can position perfectly for sustained drives.

Counting CardsCriminal ShoreGiorgio MCarolus Magnus

Late Dash Specialist

5% probability

If the early pace collapses completely and becomes crawling

The race becomes a sprint finish where pure speed matters most over tactical positioning. Those with the highest turn of foot regardless of running style can capitalize.

Penny MountainCatalyseGiorgio MQazaq

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Giorgio M and Tattie Bogle must both show early speed or the pace scenario collapses entirely

WATCH

Catalyse and Black Storm returning from long layoffs may need the run despite strong profiles

NOTE

Qazaq's draw and early positioning will be crucial given his hold-up style and course form

WATCH

Counting Cards showed keen tendencies last time which could compromise his prominent racing style

NOTE

Mission Command's consistency makes him a reliable yardstick for the overall pace of the race

4:25 — Racing TV Handicap

1m1f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Lead contested: Pallas Lord v DrumcondraHISTORIC

How it ran

On The Bubble and Miss Raincloud led; the map had Pallas Lord and Drumcondra in front.

Spirit Catcher won at 3.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Pallas LordDrumcondra

Prominent · 4

Spirit CatcherEsque EleganceAlpine SierraOn The Bubble

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 3

StaffordshireCome On JohnMiss Raincloud

Pallas Lord and Drumcondra will set a solid pace from the gate, with Pallas Lord likely to edge ahead given his stronger front-running credentials. Four prominent runners (Alpine Sierra, Spirit Catcher, On The Bubble, Esque Elegance) will create congestion behind the leaders, potentially causing traffic problems approaching the home turn. The honest gallop set by the two leaders should create a true test over this 1m1f trip on good ground. This pace setup strongly favours hold-up horses who can avoid the early scrimmaging and finish with one run.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Heroes Strike

45% probability

If the prominent pack gets bunched up behind the dueling leaders

The pace will be strong enough to set up the race for late closers who can pick their way through or around the field. Staffordshire and Come On John are perfectly positioned to exploit this scenario with their patient tactics.

StaffordshireCome On JohnMiss RaincloudAlpine Sierra

Prominent Prevails Clean

30% probability

If the prominent runners can secure clear racing room turning for home

Alpine Sierra or Esque Elegance can use their recent form advantage to strike in the final furlong. The good ground and honest pace will suit their style of tracking the pace before quickening.

Alpine SierraEsque EleganceSpirit CatcherOn The Bubble

Front Runner Survives

15% probability

If Pallas Lord can establish a clear lead without pressure from Drumcondra

His Newcastle win shows he retains ability, and if the prominent pack hesitates, he could steal a march turning for home. The good ground conditions suit his front-running style better than recent AW efforts.

Pallas LordDrumcondraAlpine SierraStaffordshire

Pace Collapses Early

10% probability

If both Pallas Lord and Drumcondra fail to show early speed

The race becomes a sprint finish where any runner with tactical speed can win. This scenario would particularly suit any horse that can quicken from midfield positions.

Esque EleganceOn The BubbleSpirit CatcherStaffordshire

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for traffic problems at the two-furlong pole where four prominent runners could get squeezed behind the leading pair

WATCH

Drumcondra showed poor form at Beverley last week so may not provide the expected early pace pressure

NOTE

Esque Elegance carries confidence from recent breakthrough win with same jockey partnership renewed

WATCH

Come On John faces fitness questions after 177-day absence despite trainer change potentially helping

NOTE

Staffordshire's patient running style could prove decisive if the pace holds up as expected

5:00 — Livescore Bet Handicap

7f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Filey Beach to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Due Respect led; the map had Filey Beach in front.

War Memorial won at 4.33 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Filey Beach

Prominent · 2

The Gay BladeWithout Delay

Midfield · 5

War MemorialBaby RoverGimmieminnieBernie The BearApproaching Dawn

Hold Up · 4

Invincible MelodyDue RespectClassy ClaretsRidgemaster

Filey Beach is the sole confirmed front runner and will take this field along at his own pace from the gates. The Gay Blade and Without Delay will track closely as prominent runners, but neither has the early pace to pressure Filey Beach in the opening stages. This creates a tactical advantage for the leader, who can dictate fractions without interference, while the large contingent of hold-up horses (War Memorial, Due Respect, Baby Rover, Classy Clarets, Gimmieminnie, Bernie The Bear, Approaching Dawn) will be bunched together seeking racing room in the straight. The uncontested lead and patient pace strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can position handy early.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

60% probability

If Filey Beach maintains a steady gallop without pressure through the first half-mile

He can quicken clear turning for home before the hold-up brigade can mount their challenges. The patient fractions allow him to have enough left for the finish despite his moderate recent form.

Filey BeachThe Gay BladeWithout DelayWar Memorial

Prominent Tracker Strikes

25% probability

If The Gay Blade or Without Delay can sit perfectly behind Filey Beach and time their move

They benefit from the pace scenario while having that crucial tactical edge over the hold-up horses who must come from further back. The Gay Blade's recent winning form gives him the edge in this battle.

The Gay BladeWithout DelayFiley BeachClassy Clarets

Hold-Up Horse Comeback

12% probability

If the early pace is genuinely strong enough to set up the race for closers

War Memorial's Southwell second or Classy Clarets' AW form could translate with a perfectly timed run. However, they need significant pace collapse to overcome their positioning disadvantage.

War MemorialClassy ClaretsDue RespectBaby Rover

Pace Collapses Completely

3% probability

If Filey Beach goes too slowly and gets swamped by everything in the final furlong

The entire field converges in a messy finish where any horse can win on the day. This seems unlikely given the class gaps and form differentials in the field.

Baby RoverBernie The BearApproaching DawnGimmieminnie

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Filey Beach could steal this if allowed uncontested fractions - watch the opening two furlongs for any early pressure

WATCH

The Gay Blade needs to position prominently from the gates given his style - poor beginning would compromise his chances significantly

NOTE

Watch for any market moves on War Memorial given his improved Southwell effort and long absence since

WATCH

Without Delay's breathing after wind surgery - any laboured action would confirm the Redcar effort wasn't just ring-rustiness

NOTE

Ridgemaster is listed as non-runner but check final declarations as his shock Newcastle win shows he has ability on his day

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 29 April 2026.

Tonight’s free races, in your inbox

Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.

One email a day. Unsubscribe whenever. Every race, every meeting →