Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:15 — M.L.A Engineering Ltd. Supporting Ardclough GAA Maiden
1m · Soft · MDN · 16 runners
Ridersinthesky likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Big Jake led; the map had Ridersinthesky in front.
Zelani won at 1.30 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Ridersinthesky
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 8
Mac An LuaisZelaniGinnos OasisTai FooWinter AdventureTax Me LaterGriseliniaFreddiesadienray
Hold Up · 7
LegatoTwin NationNothingbutadreamBallysax BooNotahairoutofplaceWhat Do You SayBig Jake
Ridersinthesky, a prominent racer from the Harrington yard, is the likeliest to set the pace but does not have a recent record of leading — it raced prominently last time after three runs without the lead, so this would not be its natural role. The field contains several horses better suited to hold-up tactics (Tax Me Later, Griselinia, Freddiesadienray) who will struggle to find their rhythm if Ridersinthesky goes forward, creating an atypical and uncontested gallop. Zelani, rated highest on official form after a second-place effort on good ground over 8 furlongs, will race in midfield and has the class to pick up the pieces if the pace collapses, or to find room if the front-runner fires. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going; a shape where one gets away early and holds on would suit the pace profile, but only if Ridersinthesky truly takes the lead — an outcome that remains uncertain given its history. Zelani profiles best to this race shape because it has beaten the second-choice horse, handles soft ground, carries 134 lb in a maiden field, and has a trainer (D K Weld) in form; whether the pace is honest or falters, Zelani is best placed to win.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Zelani settles and wins
Scenario
If the pace is sound and Ridersinthesky or another forward horse sets a genuine tempo.
Zelani will race in midfield with cover, track the pace without overexertion on soft ground, and find room to strike in the final furlong where good form and superior rating will tell. The midfield position suits a horse of its quality in a maiden where no runner is heavily favoured; front-runners do win over this trip here, but only when they truly get clear, and Zelani has the finishing speed to deny any horse that tries to hold on.
ZelaniRidersintheskyTax Me Later
B
Closing hold-up strikes late
Scenario
If Ridersinthesky goes quick early but lacks the seasoning to sustain it, and the field bunches into the straight.
A strong-finishing hold-up horse—most likely Tax Me Later or Griselinia, both better suited to this trip in the Coleman yard—will find clear ground in the final half-furlong and storm through a tiring field. Tax Me Later has already placed twice on soft and good ground over 8 furlongs and brings the experience advantage; Griselinia has run creditably at 10 furlongs on the same footing.
Tax Me LaterZelaniRidersinthesky
C
Front-runner holds on
Scenario
If Ridersinthesky breaks quickly from draw 13, secures an uncontested lead, and finds the determination to hold a late rally.
Ridersinthesky would need to overcome its own recent record of not leading to get away clear and sustain that advantage under pressure; this is possible if the tempo suits and no rival is sharp enough to challenge. Zelani or a closer would still be the likely danger, but the principle that front-runners can win over this trip here holds if execution favours the leader.
RidersintheskyZelaniTax Me Later
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Zelani is the best horse on the day by official rating and form; if the pace falters or Ridersinthesky tires, Zelani will win.
WATCH
Tax Me Later and Griselinia are true hold-up runners squeezed into a midfield position; if either finds clear ground late, they can strike with advantage over less-experienced rivals.
NOTE
Ridersinthesky must break its recent record of not leading to set the pace; if it fails to get clear early, the race will lack tempo and favour closers over confirmed front-runners.
NOTE
Three unraced or lightly raced juveniles (Ginnos Oasis, Winter Adventure, Tai Foo) are untested on soft ground and carry high uncertainty; monitor market support as a guide to stable confidence.
2:50 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Birdcatcher Premier Nursery Handicap
6f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners
Oristown Boy likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Equus Victor led; the map had Oristown Boy in front.
Pink Venom won at 2.10 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Oristown Boy
Prominent · 2
Lars SoldierI Ready
Midfield · 1
Roeillaun
Hold Up · 4
Equus VictorPink VenomNew YorkerLa Tache
Oristown Boy is the likely pace-setter, though it has led in only one of its last five runs and will need to overcome a tendency to race prominently rather than dominate. If it gets loose on the front, the pace should unfold gently with little pressure from behind, as I Ready and Roeillaun are the only other confirmed forward types and both face tactical constraints in this small field. This field contains three horses genuinely suited to prominent racing — Oristown Boy, I Ready, and Roeillaun — but only Oristown Boy is positioned to secure the lead; the other two will be fighting for space and are more likely to race in a stalking role. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip on soft ground, and an uncontested lead should reward Oristown Boy heavily, but the presence of well-handicapped hold-up types — Pink Venom (3 wins in 5 runs, rated 97) and New Yorker (rated 89 despite a long absence) — means a soft pace could still be picked apart in the final furlong.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pink Venom runs down tiring leader
Scenario
If Oristown Boy leads but softens in the closing stages, as inexperienced 2-year-olds often do on heavy ground.
Pink Venom is 11lb superior on official ratings to New Yorker and 5lb to I Ready, with a proven record of winning on soft ground (1 win in 2 attempts) and at this track; it will stalk Oristown Boy and strike in the final furlong as the pace collapses. The soft ground and short sprint suit hold-up runners, and Pink Venom's recent form (three wins and a placing in five runs) is too strong to ignore despite pulling hard lately.
Pink VenomNew YorkerRoeillaun
B
Oristown Boy holds uncontested lead
Scenario
If Oristown Boy breaks smartly from draw 1 and manages pace through the second half without being caught.
Rory Mulligan will push Oristown Boy out hard early and the lack of serious pace pressure means it can dictate terms; even on soft ground, a clean getaway and a determined ride can carry it home. The field lacks a genuine pressing force to test Oristown Boy throughout, and draw 1 allows it to settle on the rail without interference.
Oristown BoyI ReadyLars Soldier
C
New Yorker emerges from long layoff
Scenario
If the pace collapses entirely and New Yorker, absent for 112 days, finds its rhythm in the closing stages.
Aidan O'Brien's runners typically return to peak form quickly, and New Yorker's last outing was a success (1st at 5f on good ground); it will be ridden patiently and may have improvement to find. However, the 112-day absence and unknown handling of 6f and soft ground make this a distant outcome despite a favourable hold-up profile.
New YorkerPink VenomEquus Victor
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Pink Venom's recent hard-pulling suggests it may prove difficult to settle; if it races too keenly early, Oristown Boy could steal a march despite inferior form.
WATCH
New Yorker has been off 112 days and last raced at 5f; there is real doubt about fitness and distance suitability on soft ground, and a poor early effort could put it out of the reckoning.
NOTE
Roeillaun can race in the second rank and may close late if the tempo falters, making it a useful saver if the favourite fades.
NOTE
The soft ground across the entire card means pace will likely be contestable; monitor whether Oristown Boy can actually dominate or whether Pink Venom's closing speed profile will be too strong.
3:28 — RFL Steels Stakes (Listed)
6f · Soft · LST · 9 runners
La Brodeuse to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Bamako Beach led; the map had La Brodeuse in front.
Bamako Beach won at 4.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
La Brodeuse
Prominent · 3
Bamako BeachTwo StarsStaysound Susie
Midfield · 3
Saint AgathaBig GosseyTango Flare
Hold Up · 2
Luna MiaThunderbear
La Brodeuse, a confirmed front-runner that has led in three of its last four runs, will almost certainly control this race from the stalls and set an uncontested pace on ground it handles well (2 wins in 4 soft-ground runs). Two Stars and Bamako Beach, both prominent racers with decent recent form, are the only threats to dispute the lead early, but neither has the recent track record to unseat La Brodeuse; Bamako Beach in particular has won only once in its last nine runs and sits 8lb higher on the weights. The field holds no aggressive hold-up horses capable of reversing form in the final furlong, and the soft going at six furlongs historically favours front-runners, who have won significantly above expectation at this track and trip over the past year. A well-controlled tempo led by La Brodeuse will suit a horse that already looks tactically placed and is the highest-rated runner with the form to match.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
La Brodeuse leads throughout
Scenario
If La Brodeuse settles in front and Bamako Beach cannot match its stride
La Brodeuse will be ridden positively by Shane Foley to establish an untroubled lead, with the soft ground and light weight (128 lbs) playing to its strengths; no rival has both the pace and recent form to hunt it down, and front-runners have a strong record here on this ground.
La BrodeuseBamako BeachTwo Stars
B
Bamako Beach challenges late
Scenario
If Two Stars forces a quick pace early and La Brodeuse tires in the final furlong
Two Stars may press La Brodeuse from the start, building a genuine tempo that could leave the favourite vulnerable to Bamako Beach's late sustained run; Bamako Beach has won twice and placed three times on soft ground, making it a live danger if the favourite's stamina fails under pressure.
Bamako BeachLa BrodeuseTwo Stars
C
Staysound Susie picks up pieces
Scenario
If the pace collapses and the favourite fades badly in the closing stages
Staysound Susie has won twice from eleven runs on soft ground and was only beaten one length at listed level eleven days ago; it races positively and could exploit a worn-out favourite, though it would need both La Brodeuse and Bamako Beach to disappoint more sharply than their form suggests.
Staysound SusieLa BrodeuseBamako Beach
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Bamako Beach has soft-ground form and one recent win; if La Brodeuse's tempo proves honest, it will be well-placed to attack in the final furlong.
WATCH
Two Stars returns from 391 days off and has no recent soft-ground form; it may lack the sharpness to press La Brodeuse early, leaving the favourite untroubled.
NOTE
Saint Agatha pulled hard 11 days ago and races in headgear today; monitor its jumping from the stalls and early temperament, as it may not settle behind horses in a moderate pace.
NOTE
Soft ground across all six races on the card suggests consistent going; La Brodeuse's front-running record on this surface (2W-1P from 4 runs) is the most reliable guide to how it will be ridden.
4:08 — Naas Farm Machinery Handicap
5f · Soft · HCAP · 11 runners
Cuban Grey likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Gerrit's Gem led; the map had Cuban Grey in front.
Stag Night won at 7.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Cuban Grey
Prominent · 3
Bay Of SupremacyGerrit's GemApache Outlaw
Midfield · 4
Stag NightBountyUnauthorizedHarry's Hill
Hold Up · 3
KekeAllsortzGazelle d'Or
Cuban Grey is the most likely to establish the lead from draw 1, though it has led in only 3 of its last 6 runs and is expected to be ridden positively rather than confirmed as a natural front-runner. Apache Outlaw and Bay Of Supremacy will race prominently, with Gerrit's Gem and Harry's Hill also fighting for position early. The pace should be moderate rather than strongly contested—Cuban Grey is unlikely to face much pressure if it settles in front. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers, both of which have won at well above the odds-on rate over 5f here on soft ground; midfield runners and hold-up horses have consistently underperformed at this trip and going. The field contains more natural prominent and stalking types than can all secure their preferred positions, so Harry's Hill and Apache Outlaw may be squeezed towards the rear despite their styles, which reduces their winning chances in this particular race shape.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Bay Of Supremacy presses and holds
Scenario
If Bay Of Supremacy settles just behind Cuban Grey and finds enough to lead into the final furlong.
Bay Of Supremacy has won 2 of its last 6 runs and is 2 wins from 6 on soft ground, with strong recent form (3-1-3-5 in the last four runs). It will be ridden positively by Ben Coen and is well-suited by the sprint trip; the Murtagh yard is in strong form (4 winners from 40 runs in 14 days). A horse racing out of its natural hold-up role here but placed to grab the lead late suits the actual pace flow this field creates.
Bay Of SupremacyCuban GreyApache Outlaw
B
Cuban Grey sets and survives
Scenario
If Cuban Grey establishes a clear lead and the pace remains honest enough to prevent closers arriving fresh.
Cuban Grey will be ridden for the lead from stall 1 and has shown enough recent form (3 wins from last 6) to hold sway if it can build a commanding position early. Stag Night and Unauthorized have both won on this ground and could chase home, but front-runners have a strong record here and Cuban Grey would be difficult to catch if it can dictate from the front.
Cuban GreyStag NightUnauthorized
C
Unauthorized picks up the pieces
Scenario
If the pace collapses after an early tussle and a midfield runner can produce a late run.
Unauthorized won 1 of 8 recent runs but has genuine soft-ground form (1 win and 2 places from 8 runs) and was only 6 days since last racing when entered. It would need Stag Night or Bounty to chase Cuban Grey hard enough to set up a tiring finish, but midfield runners have underperformed at this trip and hold-up types even more so, making this the least likely outcome.
UnauthorizedStag NightBounty
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Bay Of Supremacy has the form, the trainer momentum and the ground record to outkick anything that leads early; watch whether Coen settles it in second or third rather than asking for the lead immediately.
WATCH
Harry's Hill and Apache Outlaw are genuine prominent racers but too many similar types are in this field; they may be forced deeper than their style prefers and struggle to find room to deliver a winning run.
NOTE
Stag Night has both the ground record and the trip record and should not be dismissed if the pace quickens; it can win from midfield if front-runners fade.
WATCH
The soft ground will favour pace-setters and early movers; hold-up horses Gazelle d'Or and Keke are unlikely to get the time they need to arrive late.
4:40 — WTW Willis Fillies Maiden
7f · Soft · MDN · 16 runners
Justiciar likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Caislean Ni Cuan led; the map had Justiciar in front.
Therewillbeglory won at 1.83 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Justiciar
Prominent · 4
ElmakayaRed DahliaTherewillbegloryPalace Fever
Midfield · 4
WeddingAbiding MemoryOracle Of DelphiThe Hidden Garden
Hold Up · 7
Sing HallelujahWildlifeEbakaCaislean Ni CuanSaoirses ChoiceMoll's GapAnaverna
Justiciar is the likeliest pace-setter but races out of its usual style here — it has led in only one of its last three runs and the yard and jockey do not favour a forward approach. Therewillbeglory and the promising prospects Elmakaya and Red Dahlia will likely dispute the front or sit prominent, while the field holds several genuine hold-up types (Caislean Ni Cuan, Wildlife, Moll's Gap, Ebaka, Anaverna and The Hidden Garden) who will race further back. On this soft going and 7-furlong trip, front-runners have a strong record here and hold-up horses also perform above the odds — but the contest for the lead will be moderate rather than fierce, favouring a horse that can track the pace and quicken into a gap rather than one that must lead from flag-fall or sit out the back.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Therewillbeglory tracks and strikes
Scenario
If Therewillbeglory settles in the second or third rank and finds a clear run inside the final furlong.
The form is strongest here: Therewillbeglory has won three times in seven runs on soft ground, was placed only six days ago, and its trainer is in excellent form (10 winners in 45 runs over 14 days). It has pace enough to track an uncontested lead and the tactical nous to strike when Justiciar or the early movers falter. This shape suits a horse with soft-ground form, recent evidence and a trainer in-form: Therewillbeglory has all three.
TherewillbegloryElmakayaRed Dahlia
B
Elmakaya leads and holds on
Scenario
If Elmakaya or Red Dahlia wins the race to the front and sets a steady, uncontested pace.
Both are prominent racers by inclination and neither has shown the ability to close from behind in maiden company. Soft ground at 7 furlongs is workable for front-runners, and if the leading group is not properly contested, a brave stayer can outstay the closers. Red Dahlia and Elmakaya have each raced three times over 7-8 furlongs and are bred to stay; neither is badly treated on official ratings (77 and --). This scenario materializes only if no challenger emerges to test the leader early enough.
ElmakayaRed DahliaJusticiar
C
Hold-up horse storms home
Scenario
If Justiciar fails to settle or Therewillbeglory is tracked too closely and the pace collapses, allowing a fresh runner to strike late.
Caislean Ni Cuan or The Hidden Garden (both true hold-up types who will race at the rear) may find room in the closing stages on soft ground, but neither has placed in its last six runs and both are well below the official rating of Therewillbeglory. For this shape to produce a winner, the clear top-rated runner would have to fail its own chances through tactical misfortune — an unlikely outcome.
Caislean Ni CuanThe Hidden GardenWildlife
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Therewillbeglory carries 131lb (equal top weight) but is the most recent, most consistent and best-ground-matched runner: it alone has three wins on the going and recent 14-day trainer form (10 from 45); monitor how it settles in the early stages.
WATCH
Justiciar will likely be ridden to take the lead but has raced mainly on good going (1W-0P-2U from 3) and soft is unproven; if it does not settle early or runs green under pressure, the race falls into a closer's favour.
NOTE
The draw is neutral throughout; no horse has an obvious stalls advantage or disadvantage that overrides form or going fitness.
WATCH
Palace Fever, Sing Hallelujah and Anaverna are from yards with no 14-day winning form (0-6, 0-6, 0-2 respectively); in a field where Therewillbeglory's yard has 10 winners in 14 days, trainer momentum is a material edge.
NOTE
Soft ground and 7 furlongs favour front-runners materially, but hold-up horses have also won above the odds on this going and trip; Therewillbeglory's record on soft (3W-3P from 7) beats any hold-up type in the field on recent evidence.
5:15 — Naas Racecourse Handicap
7f · Soft · HCAP · 11 runners
Storm Ready likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Storm Ready and Key Witness led, as the map showed.
Storm Ready won at 4.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
7 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Storm Ready
Prominent · 3
Flash Of FireOro BlancoGoal Exceeded
Midfield · 2
Key WitnessCity House
Hold Up · 5
ZenfordBack Down UnderSan AerSpodo KomodoFort Vega
Storm Ready led in its only recent outing and will be ridden positively by Shane Foley for a trainer who favours forward tactics; it is the likeliest to set the pace early. The field holds several genuine prominent racers—Key Witness, Goal Exceeded, Flash Of Fire and Oro Blanco—but Storm Ready's confirmed front-running form gives it first claim on the lead; if it gets there unchallenged, the race will be run at a steady tempo through the middle stages. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and ground at Naas, winning at a significantly higher rate than the market expects, and a soft lead with no serious early pressure will suit the pace-setter well into the final furlong. This race shape favours horses that can either lead and hold on, or stalk the leader and strike in the closing stages—hold-up runners have also shown a positive record here and may profit if the pace collapses, but the most likely winner will come from those able to contest or control the early running.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Storm Ready leads and holds
Scenario
If Storm Ready gets to the front and encounters no serious early challenge from the other pace types.
Storm Ready will make its running from the gate and set a steady rhythm on ground that suits it. Backers of prominent runners and hold-up types will struggle to time their run against a confirmed front-runner that has already proved it can lead over this trip on good ground, and the soft going will only make it harder to peg back a horse with a clear tactical advantage from the stalls.
Storm ReadyFort VegaKey Witness
B
Stalker picks up flagging leader
Scenario
If Key Witness or Goal Exceeded settles in touch with Storm Ready and the leader fades in the closing stages.
Key Witness has won 3 of its last 5 runs and holds strong form on this ground; it pulled hard at its most recent outing and will need to be ridden with patience, but if it can angle closer to Storm Ready in the final two furlongs, it has the tactical speed to profit. Goal Exceeded has a similar profile—a natural prominent racer with six wins from its last 12 runs—and either could exploit a tiring leader if the early pace proves unsustainable.
Key WitnessGoal ExceededFort Vega
C
Closer arrives from midfield
Scenario
If multiple pace types jostle for position and the race becomes genuinely contested through the middle mile, fracturing the front group.
Fort Vega has genuine depth of form over this distance and trip, with two wins and a place from its last five runs on good ground, and has the tactical flexibility to pick up the pieces if the leaders exhaust each other. City House holds strong recent form on soft going—a place from its last two runs on this ground—and could thread through a split field to land a blow late if the fractions become disjointed.
Fort VegaCity HouseZenford
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Storm Ready has led in only one run and will encounter several horses that naturally race prominent; if Key Witness or Goal Exceeded settles close enough to challenge, the front-runner may lack the seasoning to fend off a stronger challenger late.
WATCH
City House and Key Witness both hold genuine form but will be forced to race further back than ideal as the field contains too many hold-up types; if either loses position early, it may struggle to make ground on soft ground where passing is difficult.
NOTE
Fort Vega and Zenford have soft-ground wins over this trip but neither has raced recently enough to guarantee full sharpness; if the early pace proves genuinely steady, hold-up types may find the ground works against them and favour the leaders.
NOTE
The 3-year-olds Storm Ready and Flash Of Fire carry lower weights but lack the seasoned form of rivals over this exact trip and ground; experience counts in a soft-ground handicap at this distance.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.