Archive›Naas · 11 October 2026

Naas

11 October 2026 · 8 races

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1:20 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

6f · Soft · MDN · 13 runners

Katty likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Ita Florence and Fly Smartly led; the map had Katty in front.

Formous won at 4.00.

2 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Katty

Prominent · 1

Fly Smartly

Midfield · 5

SenunaCamhaoirChicago BluesImagine GloryCeline Dee

Hold Up · 6

Be In LoveIta FlorenceFilm SetOutside SunZelenteFormous

Katty is the only horse with recent evidence of leading, having done so in its last outing, but even that profile is not pronounced: it has led in just one of three recent runs and races naturally in a prominent rather than front-running role. The field contains no other confirmed pace-setters—Fly Smartly has some form in midfield but no lead experience, and the remainder are hold-up types or unexposed maidens. If Katty is sent forward, it will encounter an uncontested lead and should build a soft rhythm on the soft ground; the absence of challengers means no honest pace will develop. Front-runners have a strong record over this 6-furlong trip on turf, but only when the race is run at a genuine pace. Here, an uncontested gallop will likely favour the more patient runners who can settle, travel through the field in the middle stages, and strike late when the early leader tires. Hold-up horses have consistently underperformed over this course and trip, but midfield runners that can stalk and pounce will have the clearest advantage: they avoid the attrition of leading, bank ground without effort, and arrive fresh for the final furlong. **This race will be won from off the pace.**

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stalker arrives fresh

Scenario

If Katty leads softly and burns itself out without pressure, a horse racing midfield can build smoothly through the field and strike in the closing stages.

Midfield runners are positioned to pick up the pieces of an uncontested lead, settling economically on soft ground before quickening when Katty weakens. Film Set, despite its hold-up pedigree, has shown enough speed in recent efforts to track Katty early and pounce rather than wait longest; it is O'Brien-trained, from a powerful yard in form over 14 days, and carries the weight of Ryan Moore.

Film SetFly SmartlyBe In Love

Katty holds and hardens

Scenario

If Katty breaks smartly, settles hard to its bridle, and manages to hold off a late charge despite the soft ground.

Soft turf can blunt the finishing kick of late runners and reward those that can maintain position under labour. Katty's recent lead and the neutral draw (4) give it a fighting chance to manage the pace alone, especially if early challengers are slow to emerge and Katty can steal ten lengths in the first two furlongs.

KattyFly SmartlyIta Florence

Moore time's late raid

Scenario

If Film Set breaks well, travels towards the rear longer than expected, and finds a gap in the final 100 yards when others have peaked.

The soft going can compress the field and create a bunched finish where a jockey of Moore's calibre can thread through gaps; Film Set's two-year-old maiden form is sparse but it is from the dominant stable and has shown enough speed on good ground to suggest it has a turn of foot waiting. This scenario requires other runners to clash for early position—unlikely given the field's hold-up composition—and needs the ground to be soft enough to blunt early pace urgently.

Film SetBe In LoveFly Smartly

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Film Set's speed on good ground may translate decisively if it can track Katty without being forced to lead; Ryan Moore's tactical acumen and O'Brien's record in maidens make this hold-up runner a sharper threat than the bare form suggests.

WATCH

Fly Smartly's soft-ground placed effort (6th) is its only evidence on this going; the 62-day layoff risks blunting the finishing kick that midfield stalkers depend on in a race likely to be won late.

NOTE

Katty's narrow lead record (1 of 3) and racing pattern suggest it is not a natural front-runner; if it does head the field, the uncontested gallop will tire it faster than a horse tugged at by rivals, favouring late runners sharply.

NOTE

Ita Florence pulled hard in its sole recent outing and may be a reluctant early aggressor; if it fights the bridle on soft ground, it will waste energy before the field needs it.

NOTE

A field of 13 with nine hold-up types or unexposed runners creates a vacuum for pace; Katty alone cannot force a genuine test, meaning this race will be won by a horse that travels cool through the middle and strikes fresh—a profile that midfield runners with recent soft-ground form handle best.

1:56 — Tifrums Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden

6f · Soft · MDN · 8 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

2:30 — Irish EBF Auction Series Race Final

7f · Soft · DEFAULT · 13 runners

Banks Of The Boyne likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Banks Of The Boyne led, as the map showed.

Diamonds And Dames won at 7.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

8 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Banks Of The Boyne

Prominent · 4

RevelatorDiamonds And DamesThe ScallionatorJust One Show

Midfield · 2

Silk TwistDawnmore

Hold Up · 6

Arizona RaiderSeven Nation ArmyEighteenth SmilesWhosinterviewinwhoSeaxburhLetmeentertainyou

Runner profiles

3:05 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Garnet Stakes (Listed)

1m · Soft · LST · 16 runners

Faiyum likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Bay Colony led; the map had Faiyum in front.

Princess Child won at 4.33 — was held up, as the map had it.

4 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Faiyum

Prominent · 2

Queen's ReignDuchess Of Kenli

Midfield · 6

Blue Blue MoonWild BessieBay ColonyGlyfadaNoli TimereQualixia

Hold Up · 7

Killashee WarriorTreasure RoseClassiestDrop Dead GorgeousPrincess ChildRion RubetteRebel Wave

Faiyum is the most likely pace-setter, having led in three of its last five runs, but this is a genuinely contested field for position. Glyfada, Noli Timere and Qualixia are all natural hold-up types likely to race prominently or pursue the pace rather than settle at the rear, which means the early fractions will be more than usually competitive and the winning line will reward the horse that can sustain effort rather than one that simply dominates an uncontested gallop. Front-runners have a strong record over this 1m trip on soft ground, but only if they hold their advantage; a contested pace that softens the tempo suits a stalker or prominent racer with finishing kick more than a leader caught out by a charging field. The likely winner will come from horses that can race in the first four and press home a challenge in the final furlong—not from those riding out an uncontested lead.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Contested pace, stalker wins

Scenario

If the early pace is genuinely fought between Faiyum and one or more of the hold-up types seeking a forward position, creating a muddled first two furlongs and a strong tempo into the final half-mile.

Drop Dead Gorgeous or Classiest, riding patiently off a contested pace, will have fresher legs than a front-runner and can accelerate past tiring leaders in the final furlong. The soft going and the 1m trip reward horses that conserve energy early and unleash it late, especially when pace is set hot by others.

Drop Dead GorgeousClassiestFaiyumRebel Wave

Faiyum leads unchallenged

Scenario

If Faiyum gets clear early and the prominent types Glyfada, Noli Timere and Qualixia fail to press its heels or press too soon and fade.

Faiyum's solo lead would collapse the race into a test of stamina and Faiyum, rated 109 and 7lb clear of the third-best on official ratings, would be difficult to run down on a strong surface. However, the likely interference from hold-up types seeking to race prominently makes this scenario less probable than a properly contested pace.

FaiyumDuchess Of KenliQueen's Reign

Hold-up horse finds clear run late

Scenario

If Drop Dead Gorgeous and Classiest are blocked or checked in the closing stages and a true hold-up horse like Glyfada, Noli Timere or Qualixia finds a gap in the final furlong.

These runners race naturally from off the pace but are unlikely to find ideal room if the first two furlongs dissolve into a scramble for position; only if the field strings out and opens a corridor on the rail would one of them have the time to deliver a late charge. The weight of faster horses in front makes this highly unlikely.

GlyfadaRebel WaveTreasure Rose

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

If Glyfada, Noli Timere and Qualixia all commit forward in the opening furlong, they will force Faiyum to quicken early and risk the favourite running out of petrol before the line.

WATCH

Drop Dead Gorgeous is 29 days since last run with only one placed effort on soft ground from seven runs; if the surface proves deeper than expected or if she is shuffled back in the melee, her finishing kick may not arrive in time.

NOTE

Blue Blue Moon and Treasure Rose are both racing only 7 days apart; if either is still sharp enough to track and pick up the pieces of a faltering pace, they offer outsider value in a scenario where the top three cancel each other out.

WATCH

Rebel Wave's recent form is all on good ground; her single run on soft resulted in a second, not a win, and 29 days away will have blunted her edge for a 1m test that historically demands speed and versatility together.

3:40 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bluebell Stakes (Listed)

1m4f · Soft · LST · 16 runners

Moments of Joy likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Snapretend won at 26.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Moments of Joy

Prominent · 4

DeressaChasing ParadiseSnapretendBeset

Midfield · 4

MawhibahCapicheraCaught U SleepingChablis Rock

Hold Up · 7

AculaSo Must IChica GuerreraZadawaCamino VinoHorse details are not availableShaool

Moments of Joy is the sole likely pace-setter, but it races out of its natural position—its recent record shows only two leads in four runs, and it lacks the consistency to guarantee the role. If it does get the lead, the pace should be uncontested through the middle stages because no other horse is primed to challenge it early. The field contains several prominent racers—Beset, Snapretend, Chasing Paradise and Deressa among them—but none has the recent form or tactical setup to press Moments of Joy if it breaks well. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and ground, winning at nearly 1.5 times the expected rate; by contrast, hold-up horses have struggled here. The race is most likely to be won by a prominent racer or one settled in touch with the pace, rather than by a horse pushed back to midfield or held up—this ground and distance punish tardiness.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Beset settles and picks up

Scenario

If Moments of Joy leads but lacks pace to kick clear two furlongs out

Beset is proven on this ground (won 5 of 6 runs on soft), carries a 6lb weight penalty as the top-rated horse, and has won twice over 1m4f; its jockey and trainer go forward consistently, placing it perfectly to stalk and strike. The prominent profile suits the trip and going, and Beset's record—three wins and five places from recent starts—marks it as the class act here.

BesetSnapretendChasing Paradise

Snapretend leads early and holds

Scenario

If Snapretend breaks smartly and is allowed an uncontested lead by the rest of the field

Snapretend has raced prominently in five of its last six runs and won twice over 1m2f and 1m4f on good ground; the soft ground is a concern (it has not won on it), but its trainer, Joseph Patrick O'Brien, favours forward tactics. It would need the early pace to suit and Beset to be outpaced, an outcome possible but less likely than Beset picking up at the finish.

SnapretendMoments of JoyChasing Paradise

Caught U Sleeping arrives late

Scenario

If the pace collapses or the field splits unevenly and a midfield runner gets a clear passage in the closing stages

Caught U Sleeping is only three years old, 5lb better off than most rivals, and has finished in the first three in three of its last four runs; however, midfield runners have a poor record over this ground and distance, and the likelihood of a collapse is low. Its recent run was only six days ago, a short turnaround, and the ground is no handicap (it has won twice on soft), but the profile works against it here.

Caught U SleepingBesetChasing Paradise

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Beset carries a 6lb penalty as the highest-rated horse but is proven on soft ground and has the class and tactical position to win; if it is caught off the bridle or allowed to make its own running, the race shape breaks.

WATCH

Moments of Joy may not get the lead if a faster breaker challenges early, or may struggle to hold rivals if the pace quickens; its role as pace-setter is not guaranteed by recent form.

NOTE

Snapretend has not won on soft ground in its record; a switch to this surface and the prominence profile together create risk if the ground is as significant as the market prices suggest.

NOTE

Chasing Paradise and Deressa are both prominent racers but carry low ratings (97 and 96 RPR) and may lack the class to finish the job if they take an early lead.

4:15 — Colm White Bookmaker Beggar's End Handicap

2m · Soft · HCAP · 18 runners

Not Just Any Eagle likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Not Just Any Eagle led, as the map showed.

Abbotsford won at 15.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

11 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Not Just Any Eagle

Prominent · 5

AbbotsfordCounting CoupShodaGlowing AccountMichonne

Midfield · 4

PutapoundinthejarFactual FactGalileo DameJabbar

Hold Up · 8

MadbadanddangerousComfort ZoneThisisthewayWhimsyEben ZaabeelLight Up The DarkSir JeremyHelvic Dream

Not Just Any Eagle led in three of its last six runs and came home in front last time out, but the engine's confidence that it will secure the lead here is low — roughly one race in five like this one. The field contains more genuine pace horses than can all get their heads in front: Counting Coup, Shoda, Michonne and Abbotsford all prefer to race prominently, but Not Just Any Eagle's recent record as an actual front-runner makes it the likeliest to take the early advantage if connections send it there. If the pace is uncontested, the race will be decided in the closing stages by horses able to travel through soft ground over two miles. Hold-up horses have won at just half the rate of front-runners over this trip and going, and front-runners have a strong record; the race shape that develops will favour whichever horse can carry speed to the line, regardless of whether they lead or press from behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Closer picks apart soft ground

Scenario

If the pace is steady and the favourite's stamina test develops as expected

Light Up The Dark has won over this trip on soft ground and carries a handy 132 lb; it can track the leaders and pick them off in the final furlong as the ground taxes the front-runners. Comfort Zone is a similarly-rated hold-up type that has twice won at this distance and the yard is in form with 10 wins in 67 runs.

Light Up The DarkComfort ZoneMadbadanddangerous

Front-runner holds on in testing conditions

Scenario

If Not Just Any Eagle gets the lead and the pace collapses into a war of attrition

Not Just Any Eagle has raced in front three times in six and prevailed last time, and the soft ground will make it hard for closers to reel in anything that has established a clear lead early. A truly uncontested gallop will nullify the closer's advantage.

Not Just Any EagleShodaCounting Coup

Prominent racer finds the drive

Scenario

If Counting Coup or Abbotsford can force the pace alongside Not Just Any Eagle and get the jump on the close-finishers

Counting Coup has won twice over this trip on soft ground and has an RPR of 100, making it as well-handicapped as Light Up The Dark; a war of attrition on the bridle will suit its proven staying power. Abbotsford is 3 lb better off and has won twice at this distance.

Counting CoupAbbotsfordShoda

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Not Just Any Eagle has the best recent record as an actual front-runner, but the engine rates it only a one-in-five chance to get there; if the pace contest develops differently, it loses its winning chance fast.

WATCH

Comfort Zone and Light Up The Dark are both hold-up types with proven form at two miles and on soft ground, but both are outrated here by Counting Coup (RPR 100) and Abbotsford (RPR 98); watch whether the market respects the rating advantage or the trip record instead.

NOTE

Madbadanddangerous has just won over this track and going 14 days ago carrying near-identical weight; it is a live contender but a short turnaround in a handicap that stacks pace horses makes tactical setup everything.

NOTE

Jabbar is a genuine hold-up type shown here out of position because the field holds more stay-with-them runners than can occupy the rear; its chances rest entirely on whether the pace is so contested that hold-ups never get to fire, which is unlikely on this ground.

4:50 — TRM Calphormin - Strong Foundation, Strong Future Apprentice Handicap

1m2½f · Soft · HCAP · 12 runners

Pure Granite likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Pure Granite won at 6.50. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Pure Granite

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 6

VlhovaJp's ExpressSenna's GirlKillyclogher RoseSylkieEspritroyale

Hold Up · 5

Solomon CoopRhythm KingGuy's GirlLove OrchidNorthern Ruler

Pure Granite led in two of its last six runs and comes off a recent lead; with no other confirmed front-runner in the field, it will likely get an uncontested lead here if the jockey chooses to press. The soft ground and 1m2½f favour front-runners strongly, who have won well above the odds-on rate over this trip and going. However, this field contains multiple genuine hold-up types—Senna's Girl, Killyclogher Rose, Jp's Express and Espritroyale all prefer to race from off the pace—which means they cannot all settle where they are suited; several will be forced to run prominently or in midfield whether they like it or not, which works against their chances and hands a structural advantage to whatever does get to the front. A front-runner that holds its lead in soft ground over a mile and a half has a decisive edge here.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pure Granite leads and holds

Scenario

If Pure Granite takes the early lead and the field cannot mount a serious, unified challenge.

The front-runner will set an uncontested pace on ground that suits speed, and hold-up types forced into prominent positions will blunt their own weapons; the softer the ground, the harder it becomes for closers to gain ground in the final furlong. Pure Granite has led recently and the yard shows no pattern of laying up, so its position is natural and sustainable.

Pure GraniteVlhovaJp's Express

Stalker outruns tired leader

Scenario

If Pure Granite's recent form is a false signal and a more prominent-running type settles just behind the pace and picks up the spent favourite.

Vlhova (12 lengths clear on official rating with a recent placed effort) or Jp's Express (proven on soft, recent win at 8f) could track the early leader and wear it down inside the final half-furlong, especially if the pace is genuinely slow and the leader tires. The field's mix of hold-up types fighting for prominent slots will create a mid-race tangle that blunts acceleration.

VlhovaJp's ExpressKillyclogher Rose

Hold-up closer finds room

Scenario

If the early pace collapses entirely and several hold-up types find clear running in the final furlong.

Senna's Girl (placed 3 times on similar ground, form 75) or Killyclogher Rose (won at 11f on good ground; handles soft) could steal through as the field bunches, exploiting gaps that open when other hold-up horses are still boxed in. This requires the leader to fade sharply and the midfield to scatter, against the odds on this ground.

Senna's GirlKillyclogher RoseLove Orchid

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Pure Granite's official rating (46) is 14lb below Vlhova and 22lb below Jp's Express; if it leads and the field closes as a unit, the better-rated horses will find it in the home straight on soft ground.

WATCH

Jp's Express won on soft just 20 days ago with a clear turn of foot; if it breaks from draw 4 and settles a length behind Pure Granite, it may prove the most dangerous.

NOTE

Guy's Girl pulled hard recently; on soft ground with a forced midfield role, it may waste energy and fade.

NOTE

Northern Ruler has not run for 93 days; a freshen-up could suit, but the stable is not in recent form.

5:25 — SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Fillies Handicap

1m2½f · Soft · HCAP · 11 runners

Vanir likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Queen Of The Bogs led; the map had Vanir in front.

Vanir won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Vanir

Prominent · 3

LetizaNavy WatersQueen Of The Bogs

Midfield · 3

AnkaraApercuMorgana Blue

Hold Up · 4

Cherry Hill GirlFratasSpeckled MeadowStars Will Shine

Vanir is the only horse with a recent record suggesting it will take the lead—it led in 2 of its last 6 runs and raced prominently last time—but even that is not a strong lead profile; the pace should develop as contested rather than runaway. Navy Waters, Queen Of The Bogs, and Letiza all show prominent-racing habits from their yards and riders, so they will fight for position in the early running, likely creating a bunched pace rather than a true gallop. The soft ground and 1m2½f trip favour front-runners and early racers over hold-up horses: horses that led or raced prominently here won at nearly 1.5 times the expected rate, whereas hold-up runners won well below par. This race shape favours horses that can get and keep a position in the first or second flight—a contested early pace with no clear runaway will reward those that can settle there and have the pace to pick up the pieces, not those buried in midfield.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Vanir leads, stalkers pick up

Scenario

If Vanir settles on top and Navy Waters or Queen Of The Bogs shadows it into the straight.

Vanir will likely get the lead given its recent record and the lack of any other confirmed front-runner; Navy Waters and Queen Of The Bogs will race close enough to strike at the turn. The soft ground and trip reward stamina over speed, and Vanir's ability to settle on top while others press hard will allow it to find another gear when challenged, or to steal the race if the stalkers burn each other out.

VanirNavy WatersQueen Of The Bogs

Stalker outkicks tired Vanir

Scenario

If Navy Waters or Queen Of The Bogs gets a more economical run in Vanir's shadow and quickens past it in the final furlong.

Vanir will fight hard early but may lack the turn of foot to hold off a fresh challenger on the bridle; Navy Waters has won 4 times on soft going from 12 attempts and Queen Of The Bogs showed a second from 3 on this ground. Either is well-armed for this ground and trip and will have conserved more energy by rating off Vanir's tempo.

Navy WatersQueen Of The BogsVanir

Closer arrives late through ranks

Scenario

If the early pace collapses and Vanir and its shadows tire, allowing a hold-up horse to slip through from behind.

Cherry Hill Girl, Stars Will Shine, and Fratas all have recent wins and form on soft going; Cherry Hill Girl won on this ground seven days ago and is coming back quickly. Despite hold-up runners' poor record over this trip and going, a genuinely weak early pace could allow one to close through gaps—but the evidence suggests the early runners will be too strong for this to materialise.

Cherry Hill GirlStars Will ShineFratas

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Vanir is not a strong front-runner on its own record and may be overextended if Navy Waters or Queen Of The Bogs presses it hard from the start; watch whether it can settle or whether the early pace becomes too much.

WATCH

Cherry Hill Girl returned from a week off only seven days ago and may not have had enough time to settle after that recent win; check the betting market for signs of fatigue or loss of enthusiasm.

NOTE

The soft ground has not been raced over this exact trip since the 5:25 race yesterday; monitor any late reports of how it is riding for horses that prefer cut in the turf versus those that need genuine pace.

NOTE

Navy Waters is the only early racer with multiple soft-ground wins at or beyond this distance; if it breaks cleanly from draw 11 and can get tactical advantage early, it will be well-placed regardless of whether Vanir leads.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 11 October 2026.

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