Blooming Sally led; the map had Bougie Gals in front.
Luca Brillante won at 4.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 20 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Bougie Gals
Prominent · 1
Savannah Sun
Midfield · 13
Luca BrillanteAlfrescoGreen NatureBe In LoveViolet DoveShadowbelleMaxims Of EquityLeap Of LightOpheliaPirate Anne BonnyYouveonlyonemotherSadie RoseBrageiro
Bougie Gals is the sole confirmed pace-setter in a 21-runner field, and with Colin Keane aboard for a yard in decent form, she should stride to the front from stall 2 and control proceedings at whatever tempo she chooses on good-to-yielding ground. With no rival willing to seriously press her, the early fractions are likely to be measured rather than scorching, giving her a genuine chance to dictate and conserve energy through the middle portion of the race. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip at Naas, and a lone, uncontested leader on a track and going that consistently rewards those who race handily is a profile that demands respect. Youveonlyonemother, Sadie Rose, and Brageiro are genuine hold-up types by nature but cannot all find their preferred rear position in a field this large — they are likely to end up racing closer than ideal, meaning the rail-to-rail shape tilts even more decisively in favour of those who settle prominently behind the leader rather than closing from the back.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Bougie Gals Controls Unchallenged
52% probability
If Bougie Gals gets a clear lead and is allowed to dictate a sensible gallop throughout.
She sets an uncontested pace from stall 2, finds cover from the rail, and simply has too much in hand for a field that fails to close the gap on good-to-yielding ground; the Strand Scorecard top pick Green Nature, racing prominently in behind, is ideally positioned to chase her home.
If the pace is just fast enough to soften up Bougie Gals and a prominent racer swoops in the final furlong.
Bougie Gals sets a fair gallop but ties up late as the good-to-yielding ground takes its toll, allowing Green Nature to pick up sharply and claim the prize; runners who have tracked the pace throughout thrive as those held up struggle to get into the race in time.
Green NatureLuca BrillanteBlooming SallyLeap Of Light
C
Debutante Upsets The Form
14% probability
If one of the unexposed first-time runners shows a natural early pace or a sharp turn of foot that catches the field off guard.
A debut runner — Be In Love, Leap Of Light, or Shadowbelle — breaks smartly, travels into a prominent position, and hits the rising ground in the final two furlongs with untapped reserves that the more exposed fillies cannot match.
Leap Of LightBe In LoveShadowbelleMaxims Of Equity
D
Late Closers Pounce
8% probability
If an unusually strong gallop is set and the race becomes a genuine test of stamina, opening the door for back-markers.
This is the least likely shape given the modest pace expected and the structural difficulty hold-up types face in a crowded field, but a collapse in front could theoretically allow Blooming Sally or Endless Night to finish strongly; the restricted probability reflects that the horses most suited to this shape will struggle to find a clear run late in such a large field.
Blooming SallyEndless NightLady HZelente
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Bougie Gals — watch whether Colin Keane settles her into a true rhythm from stall 2 or pushes her into a forced tempo; if she travels kindly in the first two furlongs the lone front-runner profile is highly dangerous.
KEY
Leap Of Light and Be In Love — both debutantes for high-calibre yards with top jockeys; watch the market move in the hour before racing, as support for either would signal a potentially well-above-average first-time runner.
WATCH
Blooming Sally — her placed debut over five furlongs makes her interesting but her hold-up style demands that Bougie Gals ties up in the closing stages; if the pace is moderate she simply cannot close down the leaders in time.
WATCH
Shadowbelle — Ben Coen does not often take unremarkable rides in competitive fillies' maidens; a market move here would be worth noting given the complete absence of public form.
NOTE
Sadie Rose, Youveonlyonemother, and Brageiro — all three are likely to end up racing closer to the pace than their natural style dictates in a 21-runner field, which could make the middle stages more congested than the pace map suggests and may generate interference approaching the two-furlong pole.
2:22 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden
6f · Good To Soft · MDN · 12 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:52 — Goffs Two Million Series Maiden
5f · Good To Soft · MDN · 8 runners
Cyclone Code to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Alloutoflove and Gus Mccrae led; the map had Cyclone Code in front.
New Bond Street won at 1.36 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Cyclone Code
Prominent · 3
SyrahGus MccraeAbletai
Midfield · 2
AlloutofloveNew Bond Street
Hold Up · 2
ImplyKilcullen
Cyclone Code is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine pressure likely to be applied early, should be able to dictate a comfortable, controlled tempo from the front. Abletai and Gus Mccrae will track closely from prominent positions, meaning the early order is relatively settled rather than fractious. On good to yielding ground over five furlongs at Naas, front-runners have a strong record and horses racing prominently also fare well, making a pace-genuine-but-not-suicidal gallop the most likely scenario — one that rewards horses travelling fluently near the pace rather than those trying to close from well off it. The field holds more hold-up types than can realistically get to the rear in a clean, uncontested race shape, and New Bond Street — a genuine hold-up horse in profile — is most likely to find itself racing closer to the pace than ideal, which tempers its prospects in a shape that suits the front two or three.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Cyclone Code Dictates, Front Benefits
65% probability
If Cyclone Code leads uncontested at a honest but manageable tempo and the race is run to suit those racing prominently.
Cyclone Code controls the pace from the front while Abletai and Gus Mccrae track in the slipstream, and with hold-up horses unable to generate sufficient momentum from behind on yielding ground, the winner comes from the prominent group.
AbletaiGus MccraeCyclone CodeNew Bond Street
B
Prominent Horse Quickens Late
18% probability
If Cyclone Code sets a strong enough pace to weaken late and one of the prominent trackers pounces in the final furlong.
Abletai, who has shown consistent form at this trip and on this ground, hits the line best of those who raced close to the pace, with Cyclone Code fading slightly inside the last.
AbletaiNew Bond StreetGus MccraeAlloutoflove
C
Debutant Or Lightly Raced Upsets
10% probability
If Alloutoflove, unknown on form, shows natural talent to outclass exposed rivals who have all shaped with limitations.
The unknown quantities in this field — particularly Alloutoflove for Seamie Heffernan, who rarely wastes a ride in maidens — could land a blow if the established form is weaker than it looks on paper.
AlloutofloveSyrahGus MccraeAbletai
D
Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late
7% probability
If the pace collapses in the final furlong and a closer produces an unexpected late burst to catch the field flat-footed.
This is the least likely shape given that hold-up horses struggle to land blows over this trip at Naas, and the redistribution of New Bond Street means it is unlikely to be in its natural position to execute that style cleanly.
New Bond StreetKilcullenImplyAlloutoflove
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
WATCH
Watch whether Cyclone Code is allowed to stride along unchallenged in the first two furlongs — if Syrah or Gus Mccrae press harder than expected early, the pace could become stronger and open the door for closers.
KEY
Alloutoflove is a debutant with Seamie Heffernan booked — watch for significant market move before the off, which would signal stable confidence in a horse whose ability is currently completely unknown.
WATCH
New Bond Street has placed in three of four starts and arrives for a powerful yard, but watch whether W J Lee can find a rhythm closer to the pace than the horse's natural style allows — if he is stuck wide and off the pace, his chance diminishes sharply.
NOTE
The going is confirmed good to yielding for this race — softer than the official card description of good to soft — which may suit horses with any stamina doubt less and keep the emphasis on sharp, prominent gallopers rather than grinding closers.
3:22 — Colm White Bookmakers Nursery Handicap
5f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 14 runners
3 vying for the leadHISTORIC
How it ran
The Drambling Man led; the map had New Mexico and My Irish Lady and Amigos Legacy in front.
Santo Parvenue won at 7.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.
4 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
New Mexico, My Irish Lady, and Amigos Legacy are all confirmed front-runners, and with three horses hell-bent on leading from the gates, this race will be run at a fierce tempo from the first stride over the five furlongs on good to yielding ground. That relentless early pace is almost certain to create a strong gallop that tests stamina and punishes any horse that burns too much fuel chasing the lead. Front-runners have an outstanding record over this trip and course, but the key distinction here is that the pace-setters are fighting each other rather than controlling proceedings — New Mexico and Amigos Legacy both carry noted tendencies to fade in the finish, making it far more likely they will burn each other out than that any one of them dictates cleanly. The race shape strongly favours horses racing prominently but just off the pace, who can sit a length or two behind the chaos and quicken into the gap as the lead runners empty — Annie Batt, the Strand top-rated selection, is ideally positioned to exploit exactly that scenario.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Holds On
47% probability
If the three-way pace duel burns the leaders out and a prominent-racing type sits just off the carnage to pounce inside the final furlong.
The fierce early gallop set by New Mexico, My Irish Lady, and Amigos Legacy will see those horses swap leads and exhaust each other, leaving a clean lane for the horse that has stalked them from just off the pace; good to yielding ground here rewards exactly this profile over five furlongs, and prominent racers have a strong record at this course and trip. Annie Batt, twice placed at this course on this ground, is the natural beneficiary, with The Drambling Man also capable of filling that role from draw 3.
If one of the front-runners breaks sharply enough to dominate and the pace becomes controlled rather than contested.
New Mexico has the highest official rating of the three front-runners and from draw 4 has a clear route to the rail if either My Irish Lady or Amigos Legacy fails to jump cleanly; should one of the rivals miss the break, the survivor could find themselves alone on the lead and able to regulate the tempo. That said, both flagged finishers make this scenario precarious, and it requires things to go wrong for their rivals rather than right for themselves.
New MexicoMy Irish LadyAmigos LegacySanto Parvenue
C
Hold-Up Runs On
20% probability
If the pace collapses spectacularly and a late-running type has enough energy left to close in the final 100 yards.
Hold-up horses tend to underperform their market expectation at this course and trip, so this shape requires an unusually extreme burnout from the leaders to shorten the gap sufficiently; Invincible Irish with Ben Coen aboard from draw 1 is best positioned of the closers to get a clear run up the inside, while Lily Bear with Colin Keane represents the classiest closing option. Summer Sent You has placed on similar going and could also pick up late pieces, though the five-furlong trip is short for genuine hold-up horses here.
Invincible IrishLily BearSummer Sent YouDocks
D
Midfield Sneaks Through
11% probability
If the field fans wide in the straight and a midfield runner threads through a gap to grab a place or the race.
Little Diva and Siege Of Tyre both race from midfield but this position is statistically the weakest profile at this course and trip, requiring a perfect storm of interference, gaps opening, and late fade from the prominently positioned horses. Siege Of Tyre's tendency to fade makes this doubly unlikely as the horse the scenario would need to fuel it is the same type that struggles here; this shape is retained only because the large field of 14 creates congestion that occasionally elevates a midfield horse into contention.
Little DivaSiege Of TyreThe Drambling ManBallymackney
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch New Mexico and Amigos Legacy at the start — if either misses the break, the three-way pace duel becomes a two-horse or one-horse lead and the tempo, and therefore the whole race shape, changes materially.
WATCH
Annie Batt is drawn in stall 6 with three confirmed pace-setters on either side (New Mexico draw 4, My Irish Lady draw 8, Amigos Legacy draw 9); if she gets squeezed early and cannot find her prominent position, her advantage is compromised.
WATCH
Lily Bear and Invincible Irish are the two hold-up horses with the strongest jockeys (Keane and Coen respectively) — if the front-runners burn out even a fraction earlier than expected these two will be the first to benefit, and they are worth tracking from the half-way point.
NOTE
The going is being reported as good to yielding rather than the declared good to soft — that is slightly more testing than expected and will amplify the stamina effect of the contested pace, further favouring horses that have shown they act on give in the ground.
3:52 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Claiming Maiden
1m · Good To Soft · MDN · 10 runners
Lamar River likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Your A Daisy led; the map had Lamar River in front.
Santerno won at 1.67 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Lamar River
Prominent · 1
Darlene
Midfield · 5
Your A DaisySanternoNando RoyaleHazy SkyRazmataz
Hold Up · 3
CudawudashudaMagma LawFerronniere
Lamar River is the one confirmed pace-maker in this field and, with no obvious rival prepared to chase them hard from the jump, is likely to dictate a steady, uncontested gallop over the mile. Darlene is nominally prominent but carries a fade warning and is unlikely to apply meaningful pressure, so the tempo should remain controlled rather than truly searching. On a Naas mile with a measured pace, horses who can travel prominently and pick up cleanly through the straight hold a natural edge — front-runners have a strong record over this trip here, and a single pace-setter who controls the fractions is the ideal platform for that profile. Razmataz is a genuine hold-up type who has been placed in the midfield cluster on the map simply because the field contains more hold-up and prominent horses than can all settle where they want; Razmataz is most likely to race further back than the map suggests, making their path to the front longer if the pace stays modest.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lamar River controls, stays
62% probability
If Lamar River settles into an uncontested lead and the steady pace suits a prominent traveller who finishes with purpose.
Lamar River dictates the fractions, the mile is run at a comfortable clip, and a horse who can travel close to the pace and quicken in the straight reaps the full reward; front-runners and prominent racers thrive in this shape at Naas over the mile.
Lamar RiverFerronniereNando RoyaleRazmataz
B
Midfield mover pounces
18% probability
If the pace is genuine enough to soften the front-runner and a well-positioned midfield runner can pick them off in the final two furlongs.
A slightly stronger pace than expected saps Lamar River approaching the straight, and a midfield runner who has been travelling sweetly within themselves delivers their challenge at the right moment; the good-to-yielding ground suits horses with a smooth, ground-covering action.
Nando RoyaleSanternoFerronniereRazmataz
C
Hold-up horse gets home
12% probability
If the pace is surprisingly strong and the field fans wide in the straight, giving a closer a clear run late.
A genuinely run race collapses the advantage of those near the pace and a hold-up horse who has been kept out of trouble finds daylight; Razmataz, if the race shapes to suit a late run, is the natural candidate, though hold-up types face a stiffer task when the pace is modest at Naas.
RazmatazCudawudashudaFerronniereNando Royale
D
Chaos and attrition
8% probability
If multiple runners go for the lead early, the pace becomes erratic, and the race falls apart into a rough scramble.
Darlene or another prominent type pushes Lamar River harder than expected, the fractions become uneven, and the race becomes a test of guts rather than speed; a horse with a strong finishing record on similar ground benefits from the ensuing battle up front.
FerronniereNando RoyaleCudawudashudaSanterno
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Hazy Star is a debutant — watch for an unexpected market move in the final minutes before the off, as K.J. Condon often has his first-timers ready on debut.
WATCH
Lamar River's fade warning is the fulcrum of the whole race; if they stop quickly once tackled, the race opens up dramatically for anything travelling smoothly in behind, so monitor how freely they bowl along in the early stages.
WATCH
Razmataz's jockey booking is the most eye-catching in the race — if Chris Hayes produces a positive, front-of-midfield ride rather than the natural hold-up position, Razmataz could be far more involved than their deeper style suggests.
NOTE
The going has been called Good to Yielding on the day's card rather than the advertised Good to Soft, which may slightly favour horses with a clean, fluent action over heavy-ground grinders — worth considering for any runner whose form is built on genuinely soft conditions.
4:25 — Care At Home Nursery Handicap
1m · Good To Soft · HCAP · 14 runners
Old Joanie to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Wecouldavehaditall led; the map had Old Joanie in front.
Cromane won at 6.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Old Joanie is the sole confirmed front-runner and, from draw seven, should stride into an uncontested lead without any meaningful pressure — Golden Arizona and Two Brigade are both prominent types who will sit just off the pace rather than dispute it. That gives Old Joanie a genuinely comfortable gallop to set, and on ground riding Good to Yielding throughout the card at Naas, a measured tempo is the most likely outcome. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and course, making Old Joanie's position at the head of affairs a significant tactical asset rather than a liability. Three genuine hold-up horses — Cromane, Highest Order and Thelymitra — are mapped further forward than their natural position because there are more runners who want to settle at the rear than the race shape can accommodate, meaning all three are likely to race out of role and lose some of the ground-saving benefit they would normally enjoy.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Old Joanie Controls Throughout
58% probability
If Old Joanie secures an uncontested lead and sets a measured pace on the easy ground.
Old Joanie dictates from flag to finish with no rival prepared to press her, and the Good to Yielding surface keeps the tempo manageable enough for her stamina to be an asset rather than a drain; front-runners have thrived in exactly this profile at Naas over a mile.
Old JoanieGolden ArizonaTwo BrigadeRathbran Lady
B
Prominent Pair Pounce Late
20% probability
If the pace proves just quick enough to peg Old Joanie back in the final furlong and those in close attendance sweep past.
Golden Arizona and Two Brigade, sitting a length or two off the leader, have the positional advantage to benefit if Old Joanie weakens close home; prominent racers have posted a positive record here, and both are well drawn in the middle of the field to mount a clean challenge.
Golden ArizonaTwo BrigadeElyattaWecouldavehaditall
C
Midfield Horse Picks Up
14% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to string the field out and a midfiellder with a late turn of foot delivers.
Elyatta showed a placed effort at seven furlongs on similar ground and, ridden by W. J. Lee, could improve for the extra furlong if there is enough early pace to exploit; Wecouldavehaditall is another with midfield credentials, though both need more pace than Old Joanie seems likely to supply.
ElyattaWecouldavehaditallThelymitraHighest Order
D
Hold-Up Horse Swoops
8% probability
If the race falls apart at the head of affairs and a closer picked for stamina finishes strongly through a tired field.
Cromane, Highest Order and Thelymitra are all natural hold-up horses racing further forward than they would like, so a true late-closer scenario requires them to detach and give ground early — an awkward ask in a small-field nursery with no guaranteed strong pace; Tina Tereshkova, though lightly handicapped, has shown a little more positional versatility and could sneak into this outcome at long odds.
Tina TereshkovaCromaneHighest OrderThelymitra
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Old Joanie — watch whether she is allowed to dictate at a crawl: if no rival goes with her in the first two furlongs, she could be hard to peg back, but if the pace quickens unexpectedly she may be vulnerable in the final 100 yards.
WATCH
Golden Arizona — top weight and 90 days off the track means fitness is unproven; watch the market moves in the ring to gauge whether connections are confident, as the talent is clearly there if the prep has gone well.
WATCH
Cromane, Highest Order and Thelymitra — all three are natural hold-up horses but are likely to end up racing out of their preferred position; if you see any of them pulling for their head in the early stages or being restrained unusually sharply, it signals the race shape is not playing to their strengths.
NOTE
Tina Tereshkova — an 83-day break for a two-year-old in a nursery handicap is worth monitoring; watch how she moves in the parade ring and whether she travels kindly, as greenness after a break could cost her ground at a crucial point.
4:56 — Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden
7f · Good To Soft · MDN · 16 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
5:32 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden
7f · Good To Soft · MDN · 13 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.