Chantez won at 29.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Havana Anna
Prominent · 2
Soul LoveDancing Saxon
Midfield · 3
ChantezTreasure RoseFocaccia
Hold Up · 2
First InstinctTemperance
Havana Anna is the confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead at a comparable rating, she is likely to dictate a controlled, honest gallop from the off on Good ground at Naas. Soul Love and Dancing Saxon are the truest prominent types likely to slot in directly behind her, with Dancing Saxon's recent winning form suggesting he will press up early and keep the pace honest without turning it into a sprint. This is a race where the pace will be real but not frantic — enough to test the field over 6f on a flat track, but managed rather than ruthless, which broadly favours hold-up horses with a turn of foot to land a late blow. The field contains more prominent/front-running types than the pace map can accommodate: Chantez, Treasure Rose, and Focaccia are all natural prominent racers but at least two of them will be unable to secure their preferred position, with Dancing Saxon and Soul Love holding the stronger claims to the berths just off Havana Anna.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Havana Anna Controls, Holds On
62% probability
If Havana Anna secures an uncontested lead and the redistributed prominent types fail to pressure her through the race.
Havana Anna dictates a sustainable tempo and, with no rival willing or able to take her on, conserves enough energy to quicken clear in the final furlong; on Good ground at Naas and with Gavin Ryan a key ally, her superior OR of 108 gives her the class edge over most of the field.
Havana AnnaSoul LoveDancing SaxonFirst Instinct
B
Hold-Up Types Finish Fast
20% probability
If the pace is genuine enough to stretch the field and the closers get a clear run through from off the pace.
First Instinct and Temperance are both genuine hold-up horses who have the finishing speed to pick off tiring rivals if the front end has been run off its feet; First Instinct's Good-ground form is strong (2/6f/GOO) and Cieren Fallon is well capable of timing a late challenge.
First InstinctTemperanceSoul LoveChantez
C
Prominent Challenger Pounces
12% probability
If one of the prominent midfield types secures a better position than expected and strikes before the leaders tire.
Dancing Saxon is the likeliest beneficiary here, with two recent wins at 6f and an OR of 96 that suggests he is still on the upgrade; if he tracks Havana Anna closely and quickens half a furlong out, his course-distance form gives him a live chance in this shape.
Dancing SaxonSoul LoveHavana AnnaTreasure Rose
D
Compressed Finish, Scramble
6% probability
If the pace collapses or the field bunches and the outcome is decided by a late, chaotic sprint inside the final furlong.
A messy race where redistributed types racing out of their natural roles — Chantez, Treasure Rose, Focaccia — cause interference or position-scrambling; in this low-probability shape, any horse with tactical versatility and a clear passage could benefit, but it is the least likely outcome given Havana Anna's established front-running pattern.
Treasure RoseChantezFocacciaSoul Love
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch whether Chantez, Treasure Rose, or Focaccia break sharply and attempt to bypass Soul Love and Dancing Saxon for the prominent positions — a scramble for spots in the first furlong could disrupt pace plans and compromise Havana Anna's clean lead.
KEY
Monitor First Instinct's position at the 2f mark — if she is boxed in behind a wall of prominent types with nowhere to go, her finishing kick (which requires a clear run) will be wasted regardless of conditions being ideal.
WATCH
Dancing Saxon's racing weight of 130lbs as a 3yo carrying a penalty is worth noting — if he has to work hard early to maintain his position against older, heavier rivals, his stamina reserves for the final furlong could be tested.
WATCH
Temperance's quick 9-day turnaround with headgear applied and a modest trainer strike rate (0/3 in 14 days) means there is a fitness and confidence question — watch her in the paddock and early stalls behaviour before drawing strong conclusions.
NOTE
Going confirmed Good all day at Naas across multiple distances — no meaningful bias to exploit, but note that all the strongest recent form in this field was achieved on Good or Good-to-Soft, meaning no runner faces a hidden ground concern.
4:30 — Big Evs At Tally-Ho Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 19 runners
Dandy Land likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Steel Magnolia won at 4.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 18 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Dandy Land
Prominent · 4
I'm SpartacusWhatswrongnowStep Back In TimeSteel Magnolia
Dandy Land is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 19-runner 5f handicap, and with no other genuine pace-setters to push her, she is set to control proceedings from the gates at a comfortable, sustainable gallop on Good ground at Naas. I'm Spartacus, Whatswrongnow, Step Back In Time, and Steel Magnolia will press from prominent positions just behind, providing a light degree of pressure but unlikely to seriously disrupt Dandy Land's rhythm. The field holds considerably more hold-up types than the race shape can accommodate at the rear — Smart Sioux, Simmering Seas, Hasiyna, Lismacbryan, and Prada's World are all true come-from-behind horses but have been mapped to midfield given the congestion; of those, Smart Sioux and Simmering Seas are most likely to actually claim a midfield berth rather than their natural rearward pitch. With one horse dictating an uncontested lead over the minimum trip on a fair surface, this race shape heavily favours horses capable of tracking close to the pace and quickening from a prominent position — true hold-up horses racing from further back than ideal will face a stern ask to close in five furlongs when no searching early tempo is guaranteed to stretch the field for them.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Dandy Land Controls Unchallenged
52% probability
If Dandy Land breaks cleanly and faces no early pressure, setting a controlled pace throughout.
Dandy Land dictates entirely on her own terms, ensuring a steady-to-moderate gallop that plays to the stamina of those tracking her; the prominent runners immediately behind her are best placed to exploit any late weakness.
Dandy LandSteel MagnoliaI'm SpartacusStep Back In Time
B
Prominent Movers Strike Late
26% probability
If the pace proves just quick enough to string the field out and the prominent trio land a telling blow in the final furlong.
I'm Spartacus and Whatswrongnow, both sitting a length or two off the pace, get a clear run into the final furlong and use their good-ground form to overhaul the leader; Steel Magnolia's strong recent 5f form at this trip makes her a natural beneficiary of this shape too.
I'm SpartacusWhatswrongnowSteel MagnoliaStep Back In Time
C
Midfield Types Reel Them In
14% probability
If the early pace is just quick enough to see the leaders tire and the midfield horses cover ground efficiently to the final 100 yards.
Tawaazon and Aurora Nova, both genuine midfield operators with multiple placed efforts in similar going, get a run between horses and pounce; this scenario requires a faster-than-expected gallop set by Dandy Land which is not her natural mode.
TawaazonAurora NovaNebrook StarSimmering Seas
D
True Hold-Up Horses Swooping
8% probability
If the pace collapses in the final furlong and the horses camping at the rear find daylight for a late charge.
This outcome requires horses like Smart Sioux and Simmering Seas — redistributed from their natural rear position and flagged as fading finishers — to produce uncharacteristic finishing bursts, making this the least likely shape given their style misfit and form record.
Smart SiouxSimmering SeasHasiynaLismacbryan
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Dandy Land's break from the stalls is critical — if she misses the kick or is crowded on the rail, the one-horse pace advantage evaporates and the entire race shape collapses, opening the door for the prominent quartet to race ungoverned.
WATCH
I'm Spartacus and Step Back In Time are both prominent types drawn in a 19-runner field; watch for crowding on the turn that could block their run into the straight at the crucial moment.
WATCH
Steel Magnolia and Dandy Land are both trained by W McCreery — with two runners in the same race, the yard's tactics may involve one horse being ridden to set things up for the other, which could alter how aggressively Steel Magnolia is asked to go early.
NOTE
Several horses mapped to midfield — including Smart Sioux, Simmering Seas, and Hasiyna — are true hold-up types unable to get their natural position; if the early pace is slow, these runners will be caught wide or stuck in traffic with insufficient sprint to close over five furlongs.
NOTE
Pansy Poe and Amanirenas both return from layoffs exceeding 300 days — monitor market moves on either in the final hour before the race, as any significant support would suggest strong home confidence in their fitness despite the long absence.
5:00 — Hartes Group Apprentice Handicap
1m3f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners
Glittering Gem likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Wie Wunderbar and Signor Ferrari led; the map had Glittering Gem in front.
Wie Wunderbar won at 8.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.
5 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Glittering Gem
Prominent · 1
Signor Ferrari
Midfield · 11
Wie WunderbarMaralingaCovert LegendTero d'RosaGod KnowsAmavasyaMillhoneGod Of ThunderWalls CrossMiss IvorYquem
Hold Up · 5
Parish TeamEastern PeaceSinbad My DadShowyoutheropesDerry Lad
Glittering Gem is the sole confirmed front-runner in an 18-runner field and, crucially, faces no genuine pace rivals capable of forcing a contested gallop — she is likely to bowl along in front at a measured, sustainable tempo on Good ground over 1m3f at Naas. With the pace map saturated by hold-up types, the vast majority of runners will be tracking or chasing from midfield to rear, meaning the field will almost certainly string out behind one honest pace-setter rather than race in a compressed group. The resulting shape — a single controlled lead, minimal pressure through the middle stages, and a stamina-testing stretch run — strongly favours horses who can sit just off the pace or in close-touch midfield and sustain a long, grinding finish rather than produce a sharp late kick. Prominent racers and in-touch midfielders who travel smoothly into the straight will have the clearest passage; the redistributed hold-up horses (Covert Legend, Maralinga, Tero d'Rosa, God Knows, Amavasya, God Of Thunder, Millhone, Yquem, Miss Ivor, Walls Cross) cannot all find their natural rear-of-field position and those forced forward may not settle, while the true closers will need this controlled tempo to set up a strong late run — but with 1m3f and only one honest gallop, the window for a devastating late charge is narrow, tilting the balance firmly toward prominent-seated or close-tracking types who can strike from two furlongs out.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Glittering Gem Controls, Trackers Strike
52% probability
If Glittering Gem leads at a fair but unchallenged tempo and holds her advantage into the straight, allowing close-tracking horses to make their move from 2f out.
Glittering Gem dictates every fraction unchallenged, ensuring the race is run at an honest but not punishing gallop, and runners in close attendance entering the straight enjoy first run on the field; at 1m3f on Good ground this suits horses who travel well and stay strongly rather than those requiring a truly searching early pace.
Signor FerrariEastern PeaceTero d'RosaMillhone
B
Closers Finish Through Tiring Rivals
24% probability
If the pace is fast enough to soften the leaders and hold-up horses can navigate traffic and close powerfully from the rear in the final 2f.
A genuine gallop would string the field out and leave the front-runners vulnerable late; any hold-up horse who avoids being hampered in a large, compact group could pick off tired rivals with a strong sustained finish.
ShowyoutheropesSinbad My DadCovert LegendEastern Peace
C
Glittering Gem Defies Field Wire-To-Wire
15% probability
If Glittering Gem finds the tempo she sets so comfortable that no rival can mount a sustained challenge and she simply stays on unopposed.
On Good ground at 1m3f with no rival willing to press her, she conserves energy through every furlong and simply lengthens away entering the final 2f; D K Weld's yard is in form (2/18 in the T14 window) and this scenario is live if the jockey rides her with confidence.
If traffic problems, a false pace, or positional errors shuffle the race order dramatically, leaving an unexpected challenger to emerge late.
With 18 runners and apprentice jockeys dominating the saddles, navigational errors in a compacted midfield group are a genuine risk, and a horse who happens to find a clear run from a decent position at the 2f pole could catch the market off-guard.
AmavasyaYquemGod Of ThunderWie Wunderbar
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Glittering Gem's early behaviour — if Sam Coen takes her back from her natural prominent role rather than leading, the entire race shape loses its one pace-setter and the tempo could collapse, benefiting unexpected horses.
WATCH
With 18 runners and a field dominated by hold-up types, severe traffic congestion in the straight is a real risk — horses drawn wide or with patient jockeys (Showyoutheropes, Sinbad My Dad) will need a clear run and any blockage could cost them the race.
WATCH
Amavasya returns from 79 days off for M C Grassick and wore a hood last time when winning — monitor her pre-race behaviour and whether the hood is fitted, as a fresh horse in a big field can be unpredictable.
NOTE
Yquem ran only five days ago (LR:5d) for Richard Brabazon — watch the betting market closely as connections would not run a horse back so quickly without confidence, and his Good-ground form is quietly progressive.|
5:30 — TRM BIOACTIVE Energy Boost Handicap
1m2½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Guardian Of Realm likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Guardian Of Realm led, as the map showed.
Minella Rockett won at 4.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Guardian Of Realm
Prominent · 3
Minella RockettDiamond ExchangeAkecheta
Midfield · 3
MockingQuatre BrasSpeckled Meadow
Hold Up · 3
Port Of SpainAlice MonetOb La Di
Guardian Of Realm is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine pace rival to press him, should be able to control tempo from the front at a measured, sustainable gallop over this 1m2½f trip on good ground at Naas. Diamond Exchange and Akecheta are the prominent types most likely to track him in the early positions, meaning the race will be run at a rhythm that suits those sitting just off the pace rather than generating a searching test. The field is genuinely hold-up heavy — Mocking, Quatre Bras, and Speckled Meadow are true off-the-pace horses who have been redistributed into midfield on the map simply because the rear is overcrowded, meaning their natural late runs will be compromised by the moderate pace and the traffic situation that will develop. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses with tactical speed and a high cruising rate who can bridge the gap to a lone leader without needing a true sprint finish — specifically those with the class and consistency to travel smoothly in midfield and attack from 2f out on a flat track with no false pressure earlier.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lone Leader Controls
62% probability
If Guardian Of Realm dictates a controlled tempo and the prominent/midfield pack cannot close the gap in time on flat good ground.
Guardian Of Realm, uncontested at the front, sets a rhythm that suits his stamina profile and is never put under pressure until the straight, where the prominent types closest to him are ideally placed to pounce; Diamond Exchange and Minella Rockett, tracking close to the pace, are positioned to capitalise if the pace steadies and the race turns into a test of class and tactical speed from 2f out.
Diamond ExchangeMinella RockettGuardian Of RealmAlice Monet
B
Hold-Up Class Lands
18% probability
If the pace is just fast enough to string the field out and the truest hold-up types find clear ground to deliver a sustained late run.
Alice Monet, the highest-rated hold-up performer with strong good-ground form and a proven winning profile at this trip range, is best placed among the genuine closers to deliver a finishing run if daylight comes; Port Of Spain has the class for a similar late surge but has questions about consistency at this level.
Alice MonetPort Of SpainDiamond ExchangeOb La Di
C
Prominent Pair Battle
13% probability
If Diamond Exchange and Akecheta both press Guardian Of Realm hard and the pace lifts enough to reward those travelling powerfully in second and third.
A quicker than expected early tempo forces Guardian Of Realm to use his energy sooner, leaving Diamond Exchange and Minella Rockett — who have both won on this surface and going — to fight out the finish; this shape rewards horses who can sustain their effort from the front half of the field rather than those relying on a late sprint.
Diamond ExchangeMinella RockettGuardian Of RealmAkecheta
D
Pace Collapses, Closers Pounce
7% probability
If the pace is so slow that the entire field concertinas and the redistributed hold-up types find an uncharacteristically open late run.
This is a low-probability shape given that Mocking, Quatre Bras, and Speckled Meadow are all racing out of their natural role here and are unlikely to be in the tactical position needed to exploit a stop-start finish; Ob La Di, with decent good-ground placed form, is the most credible beneficiary, but even he lacks the finishing punch to overcome the positional disadvantage.
Ob La DiAlice MonetMockingPort Of Spain
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Guardian Of Realm sets fractions from the front unchallenged — watch whether he quickens or dawdles through the early stages, as a falsely slow pace will cause the entire hold-up group to bunch and scramble for ground in the straight.
WATCH
Minella Rockett is ridden by a 7lb claimer (Holohan) on what looks a competitive handicap debut for the yard — watch for whether he is given a confident prominent pitch or finds himself caught in traffic if the prominent group tightens up in the first half-mile.
WATCH
The three redistributed horses — Mocking, Quatre Bras, and Speckled Meadow — are all genuine hold-up types forced into midfield; watch the opening furlong to see whether any attempt to drop away to their natural position, which could cause interference or create positional chaos behind the pace.
NOTE
Diamond Exchange is trained by Mrs John Harrington whose yard is running at a modest 1/29 in the last 14 days — watch the market for any confidence drift or support that might indicate stable confidence ahead of this step back up in company after winning a maiden.|
NOTE
Alice Monet is ridden by 5lb claimer Sam Coen for D K Weld, a powerful combination when the yard is in form — watch whether she gets a clear run from her hold-up position, as traffic will be dense with multiple natural closers competing for the same late ground.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.