Bad Boy RizzAllsortzAll The GirlsWhistling Jamesie
Amiata is the sole confirmed front-runner and will likely dictate a sustainable pace without early pressure, with Joyful Tidings, Treasured Royal, and Wearing Stars settling prominently behind. The lack of pace pressure means the tempo could be moderate early, allowing the field to stay compact through halfway before quickening in the final 2f. With most runners having prominent or hold-up styles, the race will develop into a sprint finish where position and timing become crucial. This pace scenario clearly favours prominent runners who can track the leader and kick, as they'll have the tactical advantage over hold-up horses who may find themselves too far back when the race develops.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustainable Pace Suits Prominents
55% probability
If Amiata sets an uncontested lead with moderate fractions through halfway
The prominent runners can stalk comfortably and time their challenges perfectly, while hold-up horses get caught flat-footed when the pace lifts. Joyful Tidings and Bad Boy Rizz benefit most from this tactical setup.
Joyful TidingsBad Boy RizzTreasured RoyalWearing Stars
B
Strong Gallop Favours Closers
25% probability
If Amiata goes faster than expected or gets company early from the prominent runners
The increased tempo stretches the field and creates opportunities for the hold-up horses to close strongly in the final furlong. Allsortz and All The Girls can capitalize on the stronger pace.
AllsortzAll The GirlsOne Cool BearThis Guy
C
Tactical Crawl Then Sprint
12% probability
If the pace becomes very slow with runners reluctant to commit until late
The race becomes a pure sprint finish where the best turn of foot wins, potentially suiting horses with high cruising speed. This Guy and Coincidental Glory could benefit from their tactical speed.
This GuyCoincidental GloryJoyful TidingsWearing Stars
D
Pace Collapses Completely
8% probability
If Amiata goes too slow and the field bunches up approaching the final 2f
The race becomes a cavalry charge where draw and racing room matter most, creating opportunities for outsiders. Fontaine Khaled and Whistling Jamesie could sneak through gaps.
Fontaine KhaledWhistling JamesieOne Cool BearAll The Girls
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Amiata going too fast early could compromise his stamina in this step up to handicap company
WATCH
Bad Boy Rizz returning after 187 days may need the run despite his good fresh record
NOTE
Treasured Royal's fitness after 178 days off is questionable despite his proven ability
WATCH
The hold-up horses Allsortz and All The Girls need a true pace to be competitive from their preferred positions
NOTE
First-time headgear on One Cool Bear suggests connections expect improvement from recent disappointing effort
6:15 — Colm White Bookmaker Handicap
6f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 13 runners
Valiant Force to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Keke and Howd'yadoit led; the map had Valiant Force in front.
Keke won at 7.50 — led, where the map had it was held up.
4 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Valiant Force is the only confirmed front runner in this 13-runner field, meaning he can dictate terms without early pressure and set a sustainable pace. The prominent runners like Headmaster, Howd'yadoit, Staysound Susie, Indigo Dream and Bishopton will settle just off the pace, while the hold-up horses including Tango Flare, Heavenly Power, City House and Keke will need to rely on late finishing kicks. With one lone leader over 6f on good to yielding ground, this race shape strongly favours the hold-up horses who can benefit from the even gallop and time their challenges late.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate
60% probability
If Valiant Force sets an even tempo without early pressure
The sustainable pace allows the closers to conserve energy and produce strong finishing kicks in the final furlong. Horses like Tango Flare, Heavenly Power and Keke get the run of the race from off the pace.
Tango FlareHeavenly PowerKekeCity House
B
Prominent racers strike
25% probability
If the prominent pack applies enough pressure to Valiant Force mid-race
A slightly stronger tempo stretches the field and favours those positioned handily in second or third. Headmaster and Howd'yadoit are best placed to capitalize on this tactical position.
HeadmasterHowd'yadoitStaysound SusieIndigo Dream
C
Front runner gets away
10% probability
If Valiant Force gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear turning for home
The lack of early pace allows the leader to store energy for a decisive move, making it difficult for closers to reel him in. His recent Dundalk form suggests he has the engine to sustain a front-running effort.
Valiant ForceHeadmasterHowd'yadoitStaysound Susie
D
Pace collapses completely
5% probability
If no horse wants to race prominently early and the pace becomes crawling
A sprint finish from the turn heavily favours those with the most natural speed regardless of position. The race becomes a lottery with pace advantage negated completely.
Billie Be QuickHeavenly PowerTango FlareHowd'yadoit
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Valiant Force completely uncontested early could steal this if the field allows him too soft a lead through the first half-mile
WATCH
Tango Flare's 198-day absence may tell late despite his obvious class advantage and ideal racing style for this contest
WATCH
Edward Lynam's three runners all face stable form concerns with 0-4 record in last 14 days despite individual horse merits
NOTE
Headmaster making yard debut for Edward Lynam after Haggas success but 185-day break questions immediate fitness
NOTE
The 7lb claiming riders on City House and Staysound Susie reduce their winning chances despite both having solid recent form
6:45 — Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (IRE Incentive Race)
5f · Good To Soft · MDN · 7 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
Bucanero Fuerte led; the map had Bonus Time in front.
Mission Central won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Bonus Time
Prominent · 6
Bucanero FuerteMission CentralBig GosseyMoss TuckerErosandpsycheCardiff By The Sea
Midfield · 4
Bodhi BearLikedbymikeKerdosGazelle d'Or
Hold Up · 5
King CuanFahrenheit SevenThunderbearGetreadytorumbleUnique Journey
Bonus Time looks the sole confirmed front-runner and should dictate terms uncontested through the early stages. With most others sitting prominent or held up, he'll likely get an uncontested lead before the field closes late over this sharp 5f. The lack of early pace pressure means those with tactical speed to position well - prominent runners like Bucanero Fuerte, Mission Central and Big Gossey - can track the leader without being bustled along. This pace scenario clearly favours prominent racers who can sit handy and kick, rather than pure hold-up horses who may struggle to make up ground from the back in a slowly-run race.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Lasts
45% probability
If Bonus Time gets soft fractions and stays strong to the line
The lack of early pace allows him to conserve energy before others can mount their challenges. Those sitting closest like Mission Central and Bucanero Fuerte benefit from the perfect stalking trip.
If the pace quickens from halfway as the field bunches up
The tactical speed merchants can position perfectly and time their runs to perfection. Bucanero Fuerte and Mission Central have the class to exploit the setup.
Bucanero FuerteMission CentralKing CuanBig Gossey
C
Late Closer Charges
12% probability
If the early pace is genuinely pedestrian and the race becomes a sprint
Hold-up horses like King Cuan and Thunderbear get the perfect scenario to unleash their finishing kicks. The slow pace plays into their hands completely.
King CuanThunderbearGetreadytorumbleFahrenheit Seven
D
Surprise Pace Collapse
8% probability
If Bonus Time stops quickly and leaves a tactical void
Early prominent runners suddenly find themselves further forward than intended, creating chaos. Those with instant acceleration like Fahrenheit Seven can capitalize on the confusion.
Fahrenheit SevenKerdosCardiff By The SeaUnique Journey
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Bonus Time could get dangerously soft fractions as the only leader and prove hard to peg back late
WATCH
Mission Central has been absent 178 days which could blunt his sharpness despite having Ryan Moore
WATCH
King Cuan and other hold-up horses may struggle to make up ground if Bonus Time gets easy fractions
NOTE
Big Gossey's veteran legs handle testing ground well and he's arriving in peak form
NOTE
Bucanero Fuerte has the class edge but needs to overcome a slightly disappointing last run
7:45 — Naas Racecourse Business Club Blackwater Handicap (Premier Handicap)
1m · Good To Soft · HCAP · 10 runners
Jamestown to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Trojan Warrior led; the map had Jamestown in front.
Bobby McGee won at 7.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Jamestown
Prominent · 3
Trojan WarriorControlledBobby McGee
Midfield · 3
Felix GuidoManton BayHow'sthebai
Hold Up · 3
AlpheccaSon Of BeautyInvincible Will
Jamestown is the sole confirmed front runner and will lead from the start, creating a steady rhythm at 1m. With Controlled and Trojan Warrior positioned prominently behind him, there's no pressure to inject early pace. The mid-division and hold-up horses including Bobby McGee, Son Of Beauty, Alphecca, and Invincible Will will be covered up in the main body. This sets up a moderate tempo that allows the race to develop into a sprint finish, clearly favouring prominent racers and those with tactical speed over pure hold-up horses who need a stronger pace to close into.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Tactical Speed Dominates
45% probability
If the moderate pace allows prominent runners to dictate
Controlled and Trojan Warrior can position perfectly behind Jamestown and kick clear when it matters. The steady tempo plays directly into their hands as pure hold-up horses struggle to make up ground from the back.
ControlledTrojan WarriorBobby McGeeJamestown
B
Front Runner Sustains
30% probability
If Jamestown maintains his lead throughout without serious challenge
The lack of early pace pressure allows him to control the race from pillar to post. His proven front-running ability at shorter trips could translate effectively to this longer distance.
JamestownBobby McGeeControlledInvincible Will
C
Strong Closer Emerges
15% probability
If the moderate pace allows a patient ride to pay dividends
Invincible Will or Alphecca could benefit from sitting back and producing a late surge. Their hold-up style needs everything to fall right including finding racing room in the straight.
Invincible WillAlpheccaSon Of BeautyManton Bay
D
Unexposed Surprise
10% probability
If Felix Guido's Polish form translates effectively to Irish handicapping
His unbeaten record suggests genuine ability but the step up in class and new environment creates uncertainty. O'Brien's booking suggests confidence despite the unknown quantity.
Felix GuidoHow'sthebaiControlledTrojan Warrior
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Jamestown could steal this if no prominent runner applies pressure and he gets an uncontested lead
WATCH
Trojan Warrior's Ryan Moore booking suggests O'Brien expects significant improvement from Leopardstown flop
NOTE
Felix Guido's market movements will reveal stable confidence in his ability to handle this class jump
WATCH
Controlled and Bobby McGee both need to overcome trip questions at this longer distance
NOTE
Watch for how aggressively the prominent runners position early as it will determine the finishing kick strength
8:15 — Race & Stay Fillies Maiden
1m2½f · Good To Soft · MDN · 10 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.