Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
1:57 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Race
5f · Good · DEFAULT · 5 runners
Keke likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Xerling led; the map had Keke in front.
Keke won at 2.20 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Keke
Prominent · 1
Howd'yadoit
Midfield · 1
Xerling
Hold Up · 2
LikedbymikeCardiff By The Sea
Keke is the confirmed front-runner here and, with only five runners over five furlongs at Naas on good ground, she is highly likely to dictate at a sustainable tempo without serious pressure from any rival. Howd'yadoit is the only other horse with prominent-racing tendencies, and she will likely track Keke in second, meaning the race is essentially set from the front. Likedbymike, Cardiff By The Sea, and Xerling are all hold-up types who will be posted in behind, relying on a strong finishing kick that a controlled Keke-led pace may not generate for them. This race shape strongly favours Keke and Howd'yadoit — front-end and close-up prominent profiles benefit most when a single horse controls the tempo uncontested, setting a rhythm that suits those on her heels rather than those coming from off the pace. The field holds more hold-up types than can realistically be accommodated at the rear, and Xerling — a genuine closer by nature — has been mapped to midfield to reflect the congestion; Keke and Howd'yadoit are most likely to secure the positions that matter.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Keke Controls, Front Wins
72% probability
If Keke bowls along in front unchallenged and sets a fair but not scorching tempo, she and Howd'yadoit dictate from flag to finish.
Keke leads at a sustainable clip with Howd'yadoit shadowing closely, and the pair have first run on the hold-up horses who simply cannot close the gap in time over five furlongs. This shape is the most likely given the lone front-runner status and the inability of the closers to manufacture a strong enough pace to suit themselves.
KekeHowd'yadoitLikedbymikeXerling
B
Prominent Tracker Pounces
14% probability
If Keke sets enough pace to tie herself up late, Howd'yadoit delivers off her back to nail her close home.
Howd'yadoit travels smoothly in Keke's slipstream and has enough in reserve to collar her inside the final furlong if Keke overextends even slightly. Gary Carroll's tactical awareness makes this a realistic alternative, as Howd'yadoit has proven capable at 5f on good ground.
Howd'yadoitLikedbymikeKekeCardiff By The Sea
C
Closers Reel Them In
9% probability
If Keke sets a genuinely strong gallop that stretches the field early, a hold-up horse generates momentum late.
Likedbymike has been placed repeatedly at 5f on good ground and could use a fast early pace to motor through from behind; however, a truly strong pace from a single front-runner over just five furlongs at Naas is unlikely to be brutal enough to set the closers up. The reliability of this scenario is limited by the fact that the hold-up horses must rely on conditions they cannot fully control.
LikedbymikeCardiff By The SeaHowd'yadoitXerling
D
Rank Outsider Capitalises
5% probability
If the race develops in an unusual or scrambled fashion with no one taking a clear lead or with significant interference, a lower-rated hold-up horse lands a blow.
Xerling showed a sharp winning performance at 5f on good ground and could theoretically benefit from chaos, but her redistribution from true hold-up to midfield reflects structural disadvantage in this shape. Cardiff By The Sea's sole win came in soft ground and her good-ground record is thin, making this scenario the least credible.
XerlingCardiff By The SeaLikedbymikeHowd'yadoit
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Keke's early stride pattern — if W J Lee allows her to coast in front without pressure, the race is effectively decided within the first furlong and a half, with Howd'yadoit the only realistic threat.
WATCH
Howd'yadoit's draw and early positioning relative to Keke will be critical; Gary Carroll must keep her close enough to have first run without burning petrol chasing a leader who may go easy.
WATCH
Likedbymike's very short turnaround (6 days) is worth monitoring — if the horse is slightly flat from the quick return, her hold-up style becomes even less effective against a controlled front-running pace.
NOTE
Cardiff By The Sea's going preference for soft ground means punters should be cautious about her prospects on today's good surface, especially against rivals with stronger good-ground form profiles.
NOTE
Xerling's redistribution from hold-up to midfield on the map reflects a structural quirk of this field shape — she may race closer than expected if jockey Donagh O'Connor opts for an aggressive early position given the small field.
Matriarchal led; the map had Big Negotiator in front.
Carry The Flag won at 2.10 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Big Negotiator
Prominent · 4
Carry The FlagMatriarchalHanney BoyBrazilian Diva
Midfield · 3
RejoinderCelestial CrownArrowstock
Hold Up · 2
AbletaiBelle Island
Big Negotiator is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 10-runner Listed sprint, and with W.J. Lee aboard a horse already proven over this exact course and trip on good ground, he is expected to stride into a comfortable, uncontested lead from the outset. The prominent group — Carry The Flag, Hanney Boy, Brazilian Diva, and Matriarchal — will jostle for position in the first furlong, creating lateral pressure and potential interference in the 2f-3f zone, though none of them threatens to seriously burn Big Negotiator's early fractions. With a single genuine pace-setter dictating a sustainable, metronomic gallop on a flat course in good ground, the race sets up as a straight-line test of finishing quality rather than a tactical cat-and-mouse, meaning the fractions are unlikely to be either slow enough for a late sprint or fast enough to gut the leaders. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and true closers with a clean run — specifically those capable of producing a sustained, powerful finish in the final furlong once the prominent runners have done their work.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lone Leader Controls
68% probability
If Big Negotiator dictates a smooth, uncontested pace and the prominent runners exhaust themselves fighting for position behind him.
Big Negotiator strides clear from the break, setting an honest but not suicidal tempo that leaves him with reserves in the final furlong; horses who tracked him prominently at cost find little when the winning post arrives.
Big NegotiatorCarry The FlagBrazilian DivaMatriarchal
B
Hold-Up Horse Sweeps Late
16% probability
If the prominent congestion produces a moderate early quarter and the pace proves insufficient to stretch the closers.
The mid-race scrimmaging among the prominent pack effectively gifts the hold-up types a pace-softened opening two furlongs, and a horse coming with one clean, late run benefits from every stride.
AbletaiCelestial CrownRejoinderBelle Island
C
Prominent Pace War Implodes
10% probability
If the four contested-prominent runners push the early fractions hard enough to unsettle Big Negotiator and cook themselves.
A faster-than-expected opening furlong compresses the field and turns the final 2f into a stamina test, favoring any runner who settled efficiently on the inside rail.
Carry The FlagMatriarchalHanney BoyBrazilian Diva
D
Lightly Raced Types Emerge
6% probability
If one of the unexposed OR=120 runners with unknown running style shows a precocious turn of foot off a single run or debuts in disguise.
A horse like Celestial Crown or Rejoinder, having shown enough in limited starts to earn a 120 OR, produces a sharp mid-race move that the field cannot answer.
Celestial CrownRejoinderArrowstockCarry The Flag
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Big Negotiator's early fractions will shape the entire race — if W.J. Lee is allowed to stride clear unchallenged in the first 2f, the race is effectively set before halfway.
KEY
The four-horse battle for prominent positions (Carry The Flag, Hanney Boy, Brazilian Diva, Matriarchal) risks serious interference and bumping between the 3f and 2f marks — any runner inside that group faces a traffic lottery.
WATCH
Rejoinder carries no form figures and no last-run date — connections have given nothing away, and De Aguiar's other runner Belle Island also has a layoff, suggesting the stable may be operating on limited public evidence.
WATCH
Abletai's 56-day absence and reliance on a clean run from the rear makes her highly dependent on the prominent horses getting in each other's way — she needs the race to fall apart in front of her.
NOTE
Good ground is confirmed three times over for the 2:33 slot at Naas, meaning no surface-related excuses — any underperformance will be purely tactical or physical.
3:08 — Lawlor's Of Naas Supporting Naas GAA Senior Football Race Day Apprentice Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners
Sovereign Cry likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Arctic Steps and Lethimfly led; the map had Sovereign Cry in front.
Sovereign Cry won at 5.50 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Sovereign Cry is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 13-runner 5f handicap and, with no genuine rival disputing the lead, is set to dictate at a sustainable gallop from the gates — a single-pace scenario on good ground over the minimum trip. Jordan Breeze will attempt to sit prominently just off the lead, and while Cactus, Ardadslosttheplot, Nouvel Espoir and several others are natural hold-up horses, the compressed nature of a 5f field means many will be forced forward into positions that are not their preference. The bulk of the field carries REDISTRIBUTED tags precisely because there are far more hold-up types than the race shape can accommodate at the rear — Nouvel Espoir, Cactus and Bold Optimist are the most likely to actually secure a mid-to-prominent position ahead of the majority. With a lone front-runner setting a controlled pace on good ground, the race shape firmly favours prominent racers who can track Sovereign Cry and have something left for the final furlong, rather than genuine hold-up horses forced to cover ground they cannot recoup over five furlongs.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sovereign Cry Dictates Unchallenged
54% probability
If Sovereign Cry jumps cleanly and settles into an uncontested lead, controlling tempo throughout.
Sovereign Cry sets a measured pace on the stands rail and the race becomes a test of which prominently-placed horse can sustain their run through the final furlong; Jordan Breeze tracking closely is ideally placed to pounce.
Sovereign CryJordan BreezeNouvel EspoirBold Optimist
B
Prominents Flood The Lead
22% probability
If Jordan Breeze and several redistributed horses push forward early, creating a contested pace.
A faster-than-expected tempo over 5f on good ground compresses the field and stops the pace-setter, bringing hold-up horses marginally into the picture.
Jordan BreezeNouvel EspoirArctic StepsTawaazon
C
Late Hold-Up Horse Swoops
14% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong and a genuine hold-up horse finds a gap in the final furlong.
On a flat 5f course in good ground this shape is feasible but constrained — with so many pseudo-closers actually racing mid-field, a true come-from-behind effort requires a fast pace that is not guaranteed.
Arctic StepsTawaazonLethimflyWhite Smoke
D
Pace Collapses, Field Bunches
10% probability
If Sovereign Cry sets a crawl and the race turns into a sprint from the two-furlong pole.
A bunch finish benefits those with the sharpest sectional speed off a slow pace; apprentice jockey handling and draw management become critical factors in a scramble.
Jordan BreezeWhite SmokeCactusArdadslosttheplot
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Sovereign Cry jumping cleanly from the gates is critical — if he misses the break, there is no horse in this field confirmed to step in as pace-setter and the entire race shape becomes chaotic.
WATCH
White Smoke runs just one day after her previous start — monitor market moves and any pre-race reports from the Grassick yard, as a one-day turnaround on turf is unusual and could mean she is below her best.
WATCH
Several apprentice jockeys (Wallace 7, Kennedy, Casey 7, Parsons 7, Frain 7, Browne-Souza 7, Tynan 7, Tormey 7) are riding hold-up horses pushed forward — inexperienced riders failing to settle their mounts could inflate the early pace beyond what Sovereign Cry intends.
NOTE
Ardadslosttheplot returns after 277 days off for David Marnane; watch the betting for any significant market support that might indicate strong stable confidence despite the lengthy absence and step down in trip.
NOTE
Jordan Breeze is the only non-front-running horse whose natural style (prominent) genuinely fits this race shape without redistribution — if she is nibbled at in the market it deserves attention.
3:44 — Irish EBF Pat Smullen Stakes (Listed)
1m · Good · LST · 8 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
4:18 — Naas Racecourse Fillies Maiden
1m · Good · MDN · 8 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
4:53 — Care At Home Handicap (0-60)
1m3f · Good · HCAP · 19 runners
Connecteo likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Wingit and Captain Con led; the map had Connecteo in front.
Rodeo Blues won at 3.75 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Connecteo
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 13
Flagstone LadyPrivate LarryNephin MountainMaker's MarkWingitSwift CharmMillhoneSix WingsDarwin's AngelCanon LawCadrevilleJewels LegacyMusic And Song
Connecteo is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 19-runner field and, despite being a natural hold-up type redistributed to the lead, is the most likely pace-setter — meaning this race is set to be run at a controlled, uncontested tempo over 1m3f on good ground at Naas. With no genuine speed horse pressing from outside, the gallop is likely to be measured and sustainable rather than truly searching, which will compress the field and keep the leaders fresh into the straight. The field is packed with hold-up types who have been mapped to midfield because there are far more genuine come-from-behind horses than the race shape can accommodate at the rear — Flagstone Lady, Private Larry, Nephin Mountain, Swift Charm and others are authentic hold-up performers who will be squeezed into the middle of the pack rather than their natural position. This controlled pace from a single front-runner favours horses with a prominent cruising speed or the ability to travel just off the pace and quicken when the tempo lifts — pure closers who need a truly strong gallop to produce their best are at a structural disadvantage here, as the steady pace is unlikely to string the field out sufficiently to create the gaps they need.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Connecteo Dictates Uncontested
48% probability
If Connecteo is allowed to bowl along in front unchallenged and the field settles into a compact, processional gallop.
Connecteo sets a comfortable rhythm and the race becomes a test of stamina and cruising speed rather than raw finishing pace, suiting horses who can track the leader and produce a sustained effort rather than a late burst; the trip and good ground reward horses with a clean jumping-off point from just off the pace.
Rodeo BluesPoint CartwrightSwift CharmCadreville
B
Prominent Racer Pounces
27% probability
If a horse positioned just off Connecteo's shoulder travels strongly and seizes the advantage two furlongs out before the hold-up horses can close.
The controlled tempo means the horse in second or third position expends little energy in the middle stages and has enough petrol left to kick decisively when the race begins in earnest; this scenario rewards any runner able to secure a prominent position early in the large 19-runner field.
If the pace proves deceptively strong in the final half-mile and the prominent horses empty, leaving the door open for genuine hold-up types to sweep through.
In this shape, horses who have been conserved at the back of the midfield group get a clear run as the race opens up, but the structural reality is that most of the nominal hold-up types here have been pushed out of their natural position and may not be tracking from far back enough to fully capitalise.
Nephin MountainDarwin's AngelMillhoneSix Wings
D
Messy Pace Creates Scrimmage
10% probability
If the large field bunches and there is interference or a significant change of pace mid-race that scrambles running positions.
With 19 runners over 1m3f the early stages could become congested and positional shuffling may benefit a horse that breaks cleanly and avoids trouble, while turning what should be an orderly race into a tactical lottery; this scenario is the least likely given the single-pace-setter dynamic.
Captain ConMaker's MarkNephin MountainWingit
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Private Larry won over 12f on good ground just one day ago — connections have clearly targeted this race fast and if the horse recovers quickly, the recency of that winning effort at the right trip is the single most dangerous form line in the race.
KEY
Rodeo Blues represents the live combination of Dylan Browne McMonagle and a red-hot Joseph O'Brien yard (8 wins from 52 in 14 days) and the horse won over 10f on good ground last time — watch for it to be placed prominently just off Connecteo.
WATCH
With 19 runners at the 1m3f start, the opening half-furlong is likely to be congested — any horse drawn wide or slow to break could find itself trapped in traffic before the field settles, with Swift Charm and Six Wings the most vulnerable given their true hold-up styles being pushed into unnatural midfield positions.
WATCH
Connecteo is racing entirely out of natural style at the head of affairs — if it fails to travel comfortably in front or is bustled along early, the lack of a genuine replacement pace-setter means the race could go false very quickly in the final three furlongs.
NOTE
Flagstone Lady and Music And Song both have no jockey recorded — monitor declarations closely as late withdrawals from a 19-runner field will affect the pace map, particularly if any confirmed prominent types are removed.
5:30 — TRM Stay Cool Stay Sound Rated Race
7f · Good · DEFAULT · 6 runners
Suzie Songs likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
L L Koulsty and Ocean's Breath and Frescobaldi led; the map had Suzie Songs in front.
L L Koulsty won at 5.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Suzie Songs
Prominent · 1
Frescobaldi
Midfield · 3
Ocean's BreathSir BenjiL L Koulsty
Hold Up · 1
Yaupon De Replay
Suzie Songs is the lone confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine rival to push her early, she is likely to control this 7f contest at a comfortable, sustainable gallop on good ground at Naas. The pace she sets will be honest rather than searingly fast, creating a race where runners can track her without burning excessive energy — a shape that traditionally favours those able to sit just off the leader and pounce in the straight. Frescobaldi and Yaupon De Replay are best placed to exploit that tempo from prominent-to-midfield positions, while Ocean's Breath, L L Koulsty, and Sir Benji are genuine prominent types who have been pushed back on the map because Suzie Songs occupies the lead and there is simply no room for all of them to race where they naturally want to — whichever of that trio best manoeuvres to sit second or third early will be best served; Ocean's Breath, given recent course winning form, is most likely to secure that slot. This race shape — a lone uncontested front-runner dictating a measured pace — strongly favours races-prominently types who can travel close to the fractions and produce a sustained run through the final two furlongs.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Suzie Songs Controls Cleanly
66% probability
If Suzie Songs leads without interference and sets a measured, uncontested pace throughout the 7f
Suzie Songs dictates from the front at her own rhythm on ground she acts on (5/5 in similar going), and a horse that can track her through the bend and accelerate in the straight benefits from the controlled fractions; the sustained 7f tempo on good turf rewards prominent runners with a genuine finishing kick.
FrescobaldiOcean's BreathYaupon De ReplaySuzie Songs
B
Tracking Horse Pounces Late
18% probability
If the early pace is brisk enough to soften Suzie Songs and a hold-up or midfield runner picks up the pieces
Yaupon De Replay, trained by Joseph O'Brien and ridden by Dylan Browne McMonagle, is the natural candidate to swoop from off the pace if the fractions prove quicker than expected for this field; Frescobaldi's positional versatility also allows it to drop slightly deeper and finish powerfully if the race tempo elevates.
Yaupon De ReplayFrescobaldiOcean's BreathL L Koulsty
C
Crowded Prominent Brawl Erupts
11% probability
If Ocean's Breath, L L Koulsty, and Sir Benji all push forward aggressively to claim the position they naturally want, forcing a contested pace
A faster-than-anticipated tempo would burn off front-end horses and open the race for runners who can settle slightly further back and finish on the bridle; Yaupon De Replay and Frescobaldi would be the chief beneficiaries of a pace collapse triggered by multiple prominent types fighting for position.
Yaupon De ReplayFrescobaldiSuzie SongsOcean's Breath
D
Redistribution Chaos Benefits Outsider
5% probability
If the scramble for position causes erratic fractions and an unfancied prominent runner finds an uncontested slot
L L Koulsty, a winner over this 7f trip at Haydock and most recently at 6f, could steal an uncontested rail run if the prominent pack creates gaps; Sir Benji, still learning after just two career starts, remains a wildcard if the race fragments into multiple fractions.
L L KoulstySir BenjiOcean's BreathFrescobaldi
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Ocean's Breath and L L Koulsty are both natural prominent types likely to push forward from the gates — watch the first two furlongs for a positional battle that could compress the pace or cause interference near Suzie Songs.
WATCH
Suzie Songs has been off the track for 83 days and is top weight at OR 98 — if she is fractionally short of peak fitness the controlled pace she typically sets could evaporate in the closing stages, collapsing the dominant scenario.
WATCH
L L Koulsty has zero wins or places from 6 runs on comparable good ground despite winning on heavy and soft — the going is a genuine concern and punters should note the style displacement compounds rather than softens that risk.
NOTE
Dylan Browne McMonagle's booking for Yaupon De Replay is noteworthy for a horse with only three career runs — O'Brien does not typically engage this jockey without expectation, and the hold-up profile could be well-suited if the pace scenario elevates slightly above its projected controlled tempo.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.