Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:03 — Danny Trundle Heating & Plumbing Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners
Lead contested: Plushy v Harry LongabaughFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Arctic Steps led; the map had Plushy and Harry Longabaugh in front.
Arctic Steps won at 11.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
PlushyHarry Longabaugh
Prominent · 7
PoweracclaimMint ManArctic StepsSnowballsWhatswrongnowArt Of UnityApache Star
Midfield · 3
Phil's DreamShe's A GiftHastily
Hold Up · 5
Stone BearEichan SanPolancoNouvel EspoirVerified
Plushy and Harry Longabaugh will dispute the early lead in this 17-runner handicap, with Plushy the more reliable pace-setter having shown early speed in recent outings. Behind them, seven horses wanting prominent positions (Mint Man, Poweracclaim, Apache Star, Whatswrongnow, Art Of Unity, Snowballs, Arctic Steps) will create a wall of horses tracking the leaders, setting up inevitable traffic problems turning for home. The strong pace from the front two should set up the race perfectly for the hold-up horses who can avoid the early scramble. This race shape strongly favors the hold-up merchants who can pick their way through late as the prominent brigade gets shuffled back in the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Heroes Prevail
65% probability
If the early pace is honest and the prominent pack gets congested 2f out
The front-runners burn each other up while the traffic-heavy mid-pack stalls, allowing the patient hold-up horses to sweep through with clear runs. Eichan San, Verified, and the other hold-up merchants benefit from the perfect pace scenario and fewer early position battles.
Eichan SanVerifiedNouvel EspoirStone Bear
B
Prominent Position Wins
20% probability
If one of the prominent runners can secure an ideal stalking spot without getting trapped
A horse like Mint Man or Arctic Steps tracks the pace in the clear, avoids the worst of the traffic, and has enough left to capitalize when the leaders fold. The winner comes from just behind the pace-setters but ahead of the hold-up pack.
Mint ManArctic StepsPoweracclaimSnowballs
C
Front-Runner Holds On
10% probability
If Plushy gets an uncontested lead and the pace becomes more moderate than expected
With less pressure than anticipated, Plushy can dictate terms from the front and has enough left to repel the late challengers. The 3-year-old's stamina reserves prove crucial over this stiff 5f at Naas.
PlushyHarry LongabaughMint ManArctic Steps
D
Outsider Chaos Special
5% probability
If the pace collapses completely or there's significant interference in the straight
A horse who normally wouldn't win benefits from the race falling apart, with favorites getting hampered or the pace scenario going completely wrong. One of the bigger prices sneaks through the chaos.
Phil's DreamShe's A GiftHastilyArt Of Unity
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Massive traffic jam developing 2f out as seven prominent runners squeeze for position behind the two leaders
WATCH
Plushy and Harry Longabaugh setting unsustainable fractions if they go too hard in the opening two furlongs
WATCH
Claiming riders on Poweracclaim, Whatswrongnow, and Snowballs struggling to secure prime positions from wide draws
NOTE
Colin Keane's mount Verified making stable debut for Gerard Keane, jockey booking suggests confidence despite poor recent form
NOTE
Several returning horses from long breaks (Harry Longabaugh 171d, Whatswrongnow 183d, Polanco 233d) needing the run
2:35 — Matchbook El Clasico £100 Moneyback Special Irish EBF Maiden
6f · Good · MDN · 7 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:10 — Coonan Cawley LLP In Support Of McAuley Place Handicap
6f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners
Bundle Of Interest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Bint Majestic Roi and Mehman and Genesis led; the map had Bundle Of Interest in front.
Bint Majestic Roi won at 9.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently.
2 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Bundle Of Interest
Prominent · 5
Bint Majestic RoiI Bid You AjouGenesisRibble EmperorPinar Del Rio
Midfield · 3
Usuario AmigoMehmanBeauty Queen
Hold Up · 4
SommelierInishfallenCollective PowerSporting Hero
Bundle Of Interest will lead from the start with no obvious pressure, setting what should be a sustainable tempo over this 6f trip. Pinar Del Rio, Bint Majestic Roi, I Bid You Ajou and Genesis are likely to race prominently behind the leader, but none are aggressive early types who will force the pace. The large field of 13 runners includes many hold-up horses like Sporting Hero, Inishfallen, Sommelier and Usuario Amigo who will need to come from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and those who can position close to the pace early, as the sustainable gallop will allow them to kick for home while the back-markers face a traffic-laden task in a big field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Dominate
55% probability
If Bundle Of Interest sets an even tempo and the prominent horses get first run
The pace-setters and handy horses will have positional advantages in the big field while hold-up horses get caught in traffic. Genesis, I Bid You Ajou and Pinar Del Rio can all travel well behind the leader and have the tactical speed to strike.
GenesisI Bid You AjouPinar Del RioBint Majestic Roi
B
Late Charge Successful
25% probability
If the pace becomes overly steady and gaps appear in the straight for closers
The hold-up horses will get the strong gallop they need in the final 2f to reel in tiring leaders. Sporting Hero and Inishfallen have the class to mount telling challenges if they get clear runs.
Sporting HeroInishfallenSommelierUsuario Amigo
C
Wire-to-Wire Success
12% probability
If Bundle Of Interest maintains her lead throughout and kicks clear turning in
The leader will prove too tough from the front, especially with her 6-month break potentially leaving her fresh. Her previous course and distance success gives her the template to lead throughout.
Bundle Of InterestGenesisI Bid You AjouSporting Hero
D
Pace Collapse Scramble
8% probability
If Bundle Of Interest stops quickly and multiple horses converge in a blanket finish
The race becomes a sprint from the 1f pole with several horses having chances in a tight finish. Any horse with a turn of foot could prevail in the chaos.
Beauty QueenMehmanCollective PowerRibble Emperor
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Bundle Of Interest might need the run badly after 183 days off and could stop quickly if race tempo quickens
WATCH
Traffic problems likely in straight with 13 runners and many hold-up horses needing room at same time
NOTE
Genesis has 5-day turnaround from breakthrough win which could catch him at peak or leave him flat
WATCH
Sporting Hero's front-running Navan win might encourage more aggressive tactics that don't suit this bigger field
NOTE
Watch for any market support for Inishfallen who could be well-handicapped returning to turf off all-weather form
White SmokeTreasured RoyalJoyful TidingsJp's Express
Hold Up · 4
GavooMichael's WellTahcawinMidnight Dusk
Pass Me If You Can will lead from the gates with no serious early competition, allowing him to dictate a sustainable tempo through the opening half-mile. The real battle develops behind as Ocean's Breath, Real Encounter, Joyful Tidings, Nakamura, Chicago Pope and Dawn Romance all want prominent positions, creating inevitable shuffling and traffic problems approaching the home turn. This congestion in the prominent pack, combined with the likely honest pace, will create gaps for the hold-up horses to exploit. The race shape strongly favours closers like Michael's Well, Gavoo, Midnight Dusk and Tahcawin who can stay out of trouble and finish with one sustained run.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If the prominent pack gets jammed up turning for home as expected
The closers sweep past the struggling front division with Michael's Well and Gavoo having the class edge. Traffic problems eliminate several fancied runners who need to be handy.
Michael's WellGavooMidnight DuskTahcawin
B
Prominent Survives Traffic
25% probability
If one of the handy horses finds clear water despite the congestion
Ocean's Breath or Real Encounter use their class to navigate the scrimmage and kick clear. The pace becomes solid enough to blunt the closers' finishing kicks.
Ocean's BreathReal EncounterChicago PopeNakamura
C
Uncontested Leader Holds
12% probability
If Pass Me If You Can gets too soft a lead and the field fails to close
The front-runner builds an unassailable advantage as the field behind gets bogged down in their own battles. His stamina reserves prove decisive despite the opening mark.
Pass Me If You CanChicago PopeJoyful TidingsDawn Romance
D
Pace Collapse Benefits Speed
8% probability
If Pass Me If You Can goes too slow and the race becomes a sprint
The horses with natural speed like Joyful Tidings can quicken best in the final furlong. The hold-up horses get caught flat-footed by the sudden injection of pace.
Joyful TidingsNakamuraReal EncounterWhite Smoke
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch for severe interference at the two-furlong pole where Ocean's Breath, Real Encounter, Nakamura, Dawn Romance and Chicago Pope will all be fighting for racing room
WATCH
Monitor Pass Me If You Can's early fractions as an uncontested lead could make him very dangerous despite his opening mark
NOTE
Check if Michael's Well settles kindly in rear as he showed some keen tendencies in his Navan win
WATCH
Observe Gavoo's jumping from the stalls after his long layoff and recent gelding operation
NOTE
Watch Treasured Royal's early position as he got bumped at the start last time which compromised his entire race
4:20 — Gresham House Fillies Maiden
1m · Good · MDN · 15 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
Caught U Sleeping won at 12.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 3
EretriaMixed FeelingsIce Dancer
Prominent · 1
Caught U Sleeping
Midfield · 1
La Fogata
Hold Up · 2
River AraPollenca
Eretria, Mixed Feelings and Ice Dancer will ensure a strong gallop from the off, with all three capable of leading early in this small field. The sustained pace over 1m2½f on good ground will create a stamina test, particularly as these front runners are unlikely to yield easily. The strong early gallop will stretch the field and favour horses who can travel kindly in behind before producing a sustained finish. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can quicken late, as the pace-setters will soften each other up.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If the three front runners engage in a pace duel from the start
The strong early gallop will set up perfectly for the closers who can sit off the pace and produce sustained finishes. Pollenca, La Fogata and River Ara all possess the tactical speed to benefit from this scenario.
PollencaRiver AraLa FogataCaught U Sleeping
B
Front Runner Survives
25% probability
If one of the pace-setters can steal a march and dictate terms
Eretria or Mixed Feelings could get first run on their rivals if they can establish a clear lead without being pressed too hard early. The winner would need to have enough stamina reserves to hold off the late challengers.
EretriaMixed FeelingsIce DancerCaught U Sleeping
C
Prominent Tracker Wins
12% probability
If Caught U Sleeping can get the perfect stalking position
The Colin Keane-ridden filly can sit just off the pace-setters and kick when they start to weaken in the final quarter-mile. Her prominent style gives her the best of both worlds in this tactical setup.
Caught U SleepingEretriaMixed FeelingsPollenca
D
Pace Collapses Early
8% probability
If the three front runners go off too fast and come back quickly
A moderate early pace would nullify the closers' advantage and turn this into a sprint finish over the final three furlongs. This would favour horses with natural speed rather than stamina.
Mixed FeelingsIce DancerCaught U SleepingEretria
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Eretria and Mixed Feelings could engage in a destructive speed duel that sets up the race for the closers sitting in behind.
WATCH
La Fogata faces a significant fitness test on her seasonal reappearance after 200 days off the track.
NOTE
Pollenca showed greenness when blocked at the Curragh and needs a clear run to show her true ability.
WATCH
Ice Dancer has been inconsistent in her recent starts and may not handle the pressure of leading in a Listed race.
NOTE
River Ara needs to bounce back from a disappointing effort over an inadequate trip last time out.
5:30 — TRM Race, Replace, Rehydrate Rated Race
1m2½f · Good · DEFAULT · 6 runners
Galileo Noir to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Perisher won at 2.38. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Galileo Noir
Prominent · 2
Marjorie DawGolddream
Midfield · 1
Perisher
Hold Up · 2
Freedom And LightPierre Grosse
Galileo Noir will lead uncontested from the front with no other confirmed pace-setters in this small field. Perisher and Golddream will sit prominent behind the leader, while Pierre Grosse, Freedom And Light, and Marjorie Daw will track from midfield/hold-up positions. The lack of early pace pressure means Galileo Noir can dictate comfortable fractions, setting up a scenario where the race comes to life in the final 3-4 furlongs. This shape favors prominent runners who can track the leader closely and kick when the pace lifts, as they'll get first run on the hold-up horses when it matters.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Holds
45% probability
If Galileo Noir maintains his advantage turning for home without serious early pressure
The leader gets away with moderate fractions and has enough left to repel late challenges, particularly with Colin Keane's tactical nous. Hold-up horses find themselves with too much ground to make up when the pace finally quickens.
Galileo NoirPerisherGolddreamPierre Grosse
B
Prominent Takeover
30% probability
If Perisher or Golddream apply sustained pressure from the 3f pole
The prominent runners get first run on the pacesetter and have the tactical advantage over deeper-held horses. Their forward positions allow them to capitalize when Galileo Noir's stamina gives way in the final furlong.
PerisherGolddreamGalileo NoirMarjorie Daw
C
Hold-Up Charge Home
20% probability
If the early pace becomes pedestrian and the hold-up horses get a perfect setup
Pierre Grosse and Freedom And Light benefit from Shane Foley and Declan McDonogh's patient tactics, with plenty of horse left for a sustained finish. The moderate early gallop plays into their hands completely.
Pierre GrosseFreedom And LightPerisherGalileo Noir
D
Tactical Surprise Package
5% probability
If Marjorie Daw or Freedom And Light find significant improvement stepping up in trip
One of the outsiders benefits from the tactical setup and produces an unexpectedly strong finish. The race shape allows them to outrun their odds despite recent poor form.
Marjorie DawFreedom And LightGolddreamPierre Grosse
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Galileo Noir's jumping and early fractions - if he gets away with soft splits, he becomes very hard to peg back
WATCH
Perisher's position turning in - needs to be within 2-3 lengths to utilize his strong finishing kick
NOTE
Pierre Grosse's progress 2f out - Shane Foley will need clear daylight to maximize his hold-up style
WATCH
Freedom And Light's stamina reserves - has shown a tendency to weaken in the final furlong despite trip improvement
NOTE
The overall gallop through halfway - if it's pedestrian, the hold-up horses come right into play
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.