Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:23 — Ardboyne Hotel Maiden
6f · Good · MDN · 14 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:57 — Newgrange Hotel Handicap
6f · Good · HCAP · 16 runners
Thurso likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Reinforce led; the map had Thurso in front.
Gotta Catch'em All won at 10.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
4 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Thurso
Prominent · 5
PoweracclaimCoincidental GloryElly BayAre You In Or OutIrish Rumour
Midfield · 5
Gotta Catch'em AllStep Back In TimePrime SignThe Cosy CornerDubai Opulence
Hold Up · 5
In The GloamingPhoenix PaircAurora NovaReinforceVerified
Thurso is the only confirmed front-runner in this 16-runner field and, with no genuine challenger pressing for the lead, is set to dictate from the front at a measured, sustainable gallop on Good to Firm ground at Navan. That controlled pace is likely to compress the field through the middle stages, keeping the race together longer than a truly contested sprint would — conditions that suit horses who can sit close to the pace and produce a sharp finish rather than those who need a genuine end-to-end test to close. The redistribution of Gotta Catch'em All and Step Back In Time — both natural prominent types who are unlikely to secure their preferred position in a field already stacked with P-style runners — will cause friction in the early stages and may force some jockeys to be patient when they would rather be forward. With the pace comfortable and the good-to-firm ground placing a premium on fluency and a quick turn of foot in the final two furlongs, this race shape most clearly favours horses able to race prominently or in the first quarter of the field and produce a clean acceleration — confirmed Prominent types like Poweracclaim, Irish Rumour, Coincidental Glory, and Are You In Or Out are best placed to exploit Thurso's uncontested lead.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Pace, Prominent Wins
52% probability
If Thurso dictates an unhurried gallop and prominent-tracking horses get a clean run from the two-furlong pole.
Thurso sets a steady tempo that bunches the field, allowing those sitting just behind to strike without burning energy in a battle for position; the good-to-firm surface rewards quick acceleration from P-style horses who are always travelling.
PoweracclaimIrish RumourCoincidental GloryAre You In Or Out
B
Midfield Closers Strike Late
22% probability
If the prominent brigade get into a tighter scrimmage than expected and the pace quickens enough to open ground for midfield horses in the final furlong.
A slightly busier pace than forecast creates enough stringing-out for horses running from the middle to pick up dropped rivals; Aurora Nova and In The Gloaming, genuine hold-up types with good-to-firm form, would be the main beneficiaries.
In The GloamingAurora NovaPhoenix PaircReinforce
C
Pace Collapse, Leader Doubles Up
18% probability
If the pace is so conservative that Thurso simply idles clear and the field never truly gets organised to chase.
With no pressure on Thurso at any stage, the race degenerates into a sprint from too far out for the closers to bridge the gap; horses who can latch on immediately behind the leader and strike alongside Thurso in the final furlong are the threat.
ThursoAre You In Or OutPoweracclaimCoincidental Glory
D
Scrimmage Suits Outsider
8% probability
If the redistribution of Gotta Catch'em All and Step Back In Time causes early crowding and the race becomes unexpectedly messy and fast-paced.
A chaotic early tempo would spread the field and, unusually, open a slipstream for a fresh-legged hold-up runner arriving late; given the field size and tight weights this is a low-probability outcome but Phoenix Pairc or Reinforce could sneak a place.
Phoenix PaircReinforceIn The GloamingCoincidental Glory
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch how quickly Gotta Catch'em All and Step Back In Time try to push forward at the break — if both go for the same ground in the first furlong, the early scrimmage could accelerate the pace beyond what Thurso's connections intend and alter the entire race shape.
WATCH
Irish Rumour with Dylan Browne McMonagle is the jockey booking that could shift the market; if McMonagle sends him forward early rather than sitting prominent, this horse could be harder to catch than the odds suggest.
WATCH
Thurso's price and race viability hinge entirely on Sam Coen (apprentice, 5lb) controlling the fractions — if the pace is misjudged too fast, the leader runs herself into the ground before the two-furlong mark and the entire scenario collapses.
NOTE
The good-to-firm surface is confirmed across all races on the card, meaning the draw and early positioning become even more critical at Navan's tight track — horses getting shuffled back in a 16-runner field over 6f face a difficult task on a surface that does not encourage dramatic late finishes.
NOTE
Monitor the weight of market support for Are You In Or Out — returning after just 10 days with a 5lb claimer on board and proven 6f good-ground form; if connections are confident enough to run so quickly, it may represent a live angle that the pace map underscores.
3:30 — Navan Adventure Centre Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
All Hail likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
White Smoke led; the map had All Hail in front.
Another Nice'day won at 9.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
All Hail
Prominent · 3
The Right OneAmerilisCashel Blue
Midfield · 3
Boston MaxMini CotaiAnother Nice'day
Hold Up · 3
White SmokeLumiere Des EtoileLove Bomb
All Hail is the lone confirmed front-runner and, crucially, is uncontested at the head of affairs — with no genuine pace rival looking to push past them from the gates, the tempo across this 5f on good-to-firm ground at Navan will be controlled and sustainable rather than frenetic. The Right One, Amerilis, and Cashel Blue are all prominent types who will look to sit close to the pace, creating a compact lead group, while Boston Max — a genuine front-runner by nature — has been mapped to midfield because the race already has more prominent horses than the map can absorb at the fore; of these Boston Max is the most likely to actually push up and challenge for a prominent pitch, with Amerilis the next most likely to secure one. The hold-up contingent (White Smoke, Lumiere Des Etoile, Mini Cotai, Another Nice'day) will be rearward in a race not truly set up to deliver the sustained gallop that would stretch the lead group and create gaps for closers to exploit. In a one-pacer scenario at a flat, tight 5f, the race shape strongly favours runners racing prominently or handy — particularly those with the tactical speed to attach to the lead group early and sustain it on quick ground — over hold-up operators who are genuinely out of their natural element here.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Prominent Wins
62% probability
If All Hail dictates a steady, uncontested tempo and the lead group rolls home in the straight without blowing up.
All Hail sets a metronomic pace on good-to-firm and the prominent chasers — The Right One and Cashel Blue — have enough left to pounce in the final furlong where hold-up horses cannot close fast enough on a flat track.
The Right OneCashel BlueAmerilisAll Hail
B
Prominent Breaks Cover Early
18% probability
If Boston Max or Amerilis pushes hard from the gates and forces a genuinely contested early pace.
The front group burns brighter than usual and the winner emerges from just off the pace as the leaders tire slightly inside the final furlong; The Right One, who handles this trip and going well, is ideally positioned to capitalise.
The Right OneAmerilisCashel BlueBoston Max
C
Closers Get Home Late
12% probability
If the early tempo is fractionally quicker than expected and the lead group flattens out in the final 100 yards.
White Smoke or Lumiere Des Etoile, tracking midfield, could pick up the pieces if the leaders come back to the field — though both are genuinely hold-up types and this scenario relies on an unusually strong pace for a 5f handicap with one true front-runner.
White SmokeLumiere Des EtoileMini CotaiLove Bomb
D
Pace Collapse, Front-Runner Wins
8% probability
If All Hail is allowed to go so slowly that they simply stroll home unchallenged.
An extreme version of Scenario A where the pace is so modest that All Hail's prominent rivals cannot summon sufficient finishing acceleration on quick ground to reel them in; fades in finish flags for All Hail make this the least probable outcome.
All HailCashel BlueThe Right OneAmerilis
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Cashel Blue is the in-form horse with the ideal course-and-distance profile — watch for them to track All Hail closely and quicken past them approaching the furlong pole.
WATCH
Boston Max is a true prominent-style horse being squeezed out of their natural position by race shape — watch the opening furlong to see whether Chris Hayes pushes for the front or concedes midfield, as that decision will determine their chance entirely.
WATCH
The Right One won last time over this exact trip but that victory came on soft ground — monitor market moves and paddock behaviour given the quicker surface today is the one genuine doubt about their participation at their best.
NOTE
All Hail has a confirmed fade flag — if they look flat or under pressure passing the 2f pole despite leading unchallenged, the race will pivot sharply toward The Right One and Cashel Blue who are sitting just behind them.
NOTE
The hold-up group (White Smoke, Lumiere Des Etoile, Mini Cotai, Another Nice'day) are collectively dependent on a stronger gallop than this race shape is likely to generate — if they are still well off the pace at halfway, discount them entirely.
4:07 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Race
1m2f · Good · DEFAULT · 5 runners
Confused likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Summer Is Tomorrow led; the map had Confused in front.
South Island won at 3.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Confused
Prominent · 1
South Island
Midfield · 2
Hard PromisesSummer Is Tomorrow
Hold Up · 1
Mo Mhuirin
Confused is the lone confirmed front-runner in a five-horse field and should stride to the lead unchallenged from the off, setting what figures to be a measured, sustainable gallop over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground at Navan. South Island and Summer Is Tomorrow are both genuine prominent types, but with Confused already commanding the front, at least one of them will be unable to secure their natural position and will be pushed wider or slightly further back than ideal — Summer Is Tomorrow in particular is mapped to midfield precisely because the prominent berths are already occupied. Hard Promises is an unknown quantity stylistically, while Mo Mhuirin, a natural prominent racer, has been redistributed to the rear of the field by default, meaning this race is short of genuine hold-up horses and the tactical shape is front-to-back from the start. This race shape strongly favours a prominent or tracking profile — a horse able to sit just off Confused's uncontested lead and produce a clean, measured challenge in the straight without having to negotiate traffic will be best placed.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Confused Leads, Holds On
68% probability
If Confused bowls along at a comfortable, uncontested clip and the prominent trackers fail to close the gap in the straight.
Confused dictates from flag to finish on Good to Firm ground that will reward a relaxed front-runner, and with no genuine pressing rival to quicken the pace, the leader's energy reserves remain intact into the final furlong. South Island or Hard Promises, tracking closely, are best positioned to challenge but must do so against a horse that has been untroubled throughout.
ConfusedHard PromisesSouth IslandSummer Is Tomorrow
B
Tracker Runs Down Leader
18% probability
If a close-tracking rival, particularly Hard Promises or South Island, settles within a length of Confused and delivers a sustained challenge from two furlongs out.
Confused's moderate gallop could leave enough petrol in the tank for a well-positioned tracker to hit the front smoothly without needing a dramatic finishing burst. Hard Promises, lightly raced and carrying class via a solid OR-120 mark, is the type who could benefit most from this controlled, quality-over-quantity scenario.
Hard PromisesSouth IslandConfusedSummer Is Tomorrow
C
Midfield Runner Pounces
9% probability
If the pace collapses in the final two furlongs and a horse switched wide and ridden late produces a strong closing run.
Summer Is Tomorrow is a genuine prominent type mapped to midfield, so any late surge relies on a horse racing out of its natural role, making this the least structurally sound scenario. Mo Mhuirin, similarly redistributed to the rear, would also need everything to fall right — a slow tempo followed by a dramatic fade from those in front — which is unlikely given Confused's soundness on this going.
Summer Is TomorrowMo MhuirinHard PromisesSouth Island
D
Chaos, No Clear Pacemaker
5% probability
If Confused misses the break or is unexpectedly challenged early, scrambling the race shape entirely.
Without its only genuine front-runner dictating, the race becomes a messy contest where South Island and Summer Is Tomorrow compete for a contested lead, burning energy early on ground that punishes wasteful races. Hard Promises, with tactical flexibility and class on its side, could exploit the disarray, but this scenario requires multiple things going wrong simultaneously.
Hard PromisesSouth IslandMo MhuirinConfused
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Confused's ability to control the tempo unchallenged is the pivotal factor — watch whether South Island or Summer Is Tomorrow attempts to press it into the first bend, which could fundamentally alter the energy cost for the leader.
WATCH
Hard Promises is 69 days between runs with only one career start to its name — if it shows any signs of ring-rustiness or greenness early, its prominent tracking position could be wasted, but if it travels well it becomes a serious danger.
WATCH
Summer Is Tomorrow's visor and competitive nature may lead it to race keenly from a position further back than ideal — jockey McMonagle will need to manage its energy carefully if it is to produce a meaningful challenge from midfield.
NOTE
Mo Mhuirin's jockey and trainer being the same person (Andrew Slattery) is an unusual arrangement; note how early in the race it settles, as any tendency to race prominently against the grain of the mapped shape would confirm it cannot win from further back than its nature allows.
NOTE
Going is reported as Good to Firm for this race despite the card header listing Good — confirm the official going stick reading before final assessment, as Good to Firm clearly favours the front-runner and a sustained gallop more than a slower Good surface would.
4:40 — Navan Handicap
1m2f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners
Steel Cut likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Felix Somary and Steel Cut led, as the map showed.
Admiral Will Brown won at 11.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.
5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Steel Cut
Prominent · 3
GenoahDaonethatgotawayCala Bonita
Midfield · 4
RaydamannLetizaLady ChartwellAdmiral Will Brown
Hold Up · 3
SonoranBeauparcFelix Somary
Steel Cut is the confirmed front runner and, with only one genuine pace-setter in an 11-runner field over 1m2f on good-to-firm ground at Navan, the early tempo figures to be controlled and sustainable rather than suicidal. Genoah, Daonethatgotaway, and Cala Bonita are all genuine prominent types who will press for position just off the lead, creating a small cluster at the head of affairs without materially burning out the pace. The field holds more prominent and hold-up horses than the map can accommodate cleanly — Raydamann, Letiza, Lady Chartwell, and Admiral Will Brown are all pushed out of their natural rear positions, with Raydamann the most likely to press forward and actually secure a spot near the pace given his redistribution profile. A single, uncontested front runner dictating a measured gallop on fast ground over a flat mile-and-a-quarter strongly favours horses who can sit just off the leader, travel kindly in a prominent position, and produce a sustained finish — the prominent-to-midfield tracking profile is the chief beneficiary of this shape.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Steel Cut Dictates Unopposed
62% probability
If Steel Cut is allowed to bowl along at a comfortable gallop with no challenger willing to close him down before the home turn.
Steel Cut sets a steady, controlled tempo and the field settles into a rhythm behind him, with Genoah, Daonethatgotaway, and Cala Bonita tracking in a tight group just off the pace; when the tempo lifts in the straight, the horse who has travelled best just behind the leader collects the prize. Prominent racers who have saved energy through the middle portion of the race are ideally placed and the fast ground rewards their forward position without punishing them for using up early fuel.
GenoahCala BonitaDaonethatgotawayBeauparc
B
Pace Injected Mid-Race
20% probability
If Raydamann or another redistributed prominent type surges to challenge Steel Cut after the halfway point, lifting the overall tempo.
The increased pace quickens the race up earlier than expected, burning off horses who are positioned too far back and stretching the field entering the straight; horses with genuine stamina at the trip who have been settled in midfield now pick off the weakened leaders. This scenario opens the door to the better-staying hold-up types who have the class to close on a genuinely run race.
BeauparcSonoranGenoahRaydamann
C
Closers Deliver Late
12% probability
If the pace collapses entirely and the field strings out in the straight, allowing true hold-up types to pick up the pieces.
Steel Cut's controlled early gallop paradoxically creates a congested, slowly-run affair until the final two furlongs, at which point the hold-up horses who have conserved energy make their runs simultaneously. However, this scenario is tempered by the fact that several nominally hold-up runners here — Letiza, Lady Chartwell, Admiral Will Brown — are redistributed from their natural positions and may not achieve the clean late run their profile requires.
SonoranLetizaBeauparcLady Chartwell
D
Front Runner Outstays Field
6% probability
If the pace proves deceptively strong on fast ground and the hold-up horses simply cannot close the gap in the straight.
Steel Cut's lead proves unassailable as the good-to-firm ground keeps the pace honest throughout, and the horses pressing from behind find they have used too much energy to sustain their challenge; the winner is the horse on the front end or closest to it throughout. This shape is least likely given Steel Cut's limited recent form and the OR compression in this handicap.
Steel CutDaonethatgotawayCala BonitaGenoah
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Steel Cut's early pace judgement is critical — if Sam Coen (5lb claimer) misjudges the gallop and either goes too fast or allows a challenger to push him wide on the bend, the entire race shape collapses and the prominent runners behind him are denied a true test.
KEY
Raydamann is redistributed from his natural prominent position — watch whether Chris Hayes sends him forward before the race settles, because if he does succeed in getting to the pace, it injects a second genuine front-runner into the equation and the race becomes materially faster than the single-pacer scenario assumes.
WATCH
Genoah's course-and-distance form is a strong positive, but his last five runs on good turf produced seven wins from fifteen tries at the sim-going level — if his form is patchy on this surface, his prominent position may cost him late in the straight.
WATCH
Felix Somary's "fades in finish" flag combined with a step up from 6f-8f to 1m2f is a significant safety and competitive concern — connections and punters should note this horse may drop out tamely and become an obstacle in the straight for runners coming from behind.
NOTE
The going report consistently logs Good To Firm for all three 1m2f races at Navan today — conditions are uniform and faster than the declared Good, meaning horses whose best form is on softer ground (Sonoran's soft placing, Letiza's standard form) face a hidden going question that their sim-going records only partially answer.
5:15 — Navan Racing Festival 14th & 15th November Handicap (0-60)
1m2f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Rising Sky likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Copper Craft and Autocrat and Jazz Forever led; the map had Rising Sky in front.
Arch Enemy won at 4.50 — was held up, as the map had it.
3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
AutocratOne For TeiganCopper CraftHaughtyGold Dublooms
Hold Up · 4
Arch EnemyRetro GalJazz ForeverRobot Rock
Rising Sky is the one confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, is expected to bowl along at a sustainable, uncontested tempo on good-to-firm ground over 1m2f at Navan. Deuteronomy and Trishuli River are the likeliest horses to press from a prominent position, but neither has the profile to force Rising Sky into a lung-busting early gallop, meaning the pace should be honest rather than scorching. The redistribution note is critical: Autocrat, One For Teigan, Copper Craft, Haughty and Gold Dublooms are all true hold-up types pushed into midfield slots on the map because this field simply has too many closers to fit naturally at the rear — in reality, several will be further back than their mapped position suggests, which compresses the field behind a single leader and reduces the likelihood of a truly strong finishing kick from deep. This race shape — a moderate, uncontested lead — most favours genuine prominent racers who can track the steady gallop of Rising Sky and pounce at the two-pole, rather than deep closers who need a strong pace to generate their run.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Steady Lead, Track And Pounce
52% probability
If Rising Sky bowls along at a comfortable uncontested tempo and the race is decided by who tracks closest into the straight.
Rising Sky controls from the front with Deuteronomy and Cleopatra's Needle sitting closest in a patient chase; the 1m2f trip on good-to-firm suits those with a high cruising speed rather than a late burst, and the winner emerges from the prominent group in the final two furlongs.
If Rising Sky goes too fast for this class of race and Deuteronomy or Trishuli River surge through to dominate the finish.
A moderate handicap leader setting what feels like a comfortable clip can still find the pace excessive for a 0-60 field on quick ground, gifting the race to the prominent pair who have conserved energy in second and third.
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to string the field out and one of the redistributed hold-up types produces a sustained late run.
Copper Craft or Autocrat, though pushed wider in the field than their natural position, could capitalise if the front two over-cook it on fast ground; their style-fit discount means this needs both a quicker gallop and a clean passage, making it the third-most likely shape.
Copper CraftAutocratRetro GalJazz Forever
D
Pace Implodes, Chaos Finish
10% probability
If Rising Sky ties up dramatically and the entire field bunches entering the straight, turning the finish into a scramble.
With so many hold-up types unable to get to the rear, mid-race crowding could cause trouble in running, leaving a chaotic final furlong where a fresh horse like Retro Gal or one carrying low weight benefits from a clear run.
Retro GalGold DubloomsOne For TeiganHaughty
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Rising Sky (Patrick McGettigan 5lb claim) sets the entire race shape — if it is allowed a soft lead from flag to finish at this class level, horses tracking it like Cleopatra's Needle and Deuteronomy become significantly more dangerous than their ratings suggest.
WATCH
Monitor Autocrat, Copper Craft and One For Teigan in the paddock and early race; all three are true hold-up types redistributed on the map, and if they break forward unexpectedly they could force an uncharacteristic pace increase that alters the race shape entirely.
WATCH
Cleopatra's Needle's recent run of four consecutive places (two wins in last five) on good ground, ridden by Chris Hayes, makes it the most tactically dangerous prominent type — if it gets a clean slot just off the early leader it could prove hard to peg back in the final furlong.
NOTE
Deuteronomy's headgear (hood) and 23-day freshness angle are worth noting — R P Burns has a quiet yard record (0/4 in 14 days) but this horse has two wins from nine prominent efforts on similar ground, and its style is perfectly aligned with the expected race shape.
NOTE
Retro Gal (Henry de Bromhead, 3yo, 129lbs) is the least exposed runner in the field — while form is unimpressive, the combination of light weight, top yard and a chaotic finish scenario (Scenario D) would bring this filly into the frame as a place dark horse.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.