Supreme Lord and Howlin Wolf led, as the map showed.
Supreme Lord won at 2.38 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Howlin Wolf
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 6
Someday SomewherePrince Of PeppardTwo BrigadeLucy's PromiseNo Time FaultsLittle Diva
Hold Up · 1
Supreme Lord
Howlin Wolf is the only confirmed front runner in this 8-runner 6f nursery on Good to Firm ground at Navan, and with no genuine rival for the lead, this race will be run at a sustainable, pressure-free gallop from the front. The remainder of the field — Supreme Lord, Prince Of Peppard, Two Brigade, Lucy's Promise, No Time Faults and Little Diva — are all natural hold-up or midfield types, meaning Howlin Wolf can dictate a controlled tempo without being harassed through the early stages. This field holds considerably more hold-up types than the race shape can accommodate naturally; Prince Of Peppard, Two Brigade, Lucy's Promise and others are genuine closers who cannot all find their preferred rear position, compressing the midfield and reducing the effectiveness of any late run. The race shape strongly favours horses capable of racing prominently or tracking a lone, uncontested leader at a measured pace — those with the tactical nous to sit just behind Howlin Wolf in a compressed pack and produce a sustained finish on the good-to-firm surface will have the clearest advantage.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Controls
58% probability
If Howlin Wolf bowls along in front unchallenged and sets a measured, even gallop that suits a front-to-finish or prominent hold.
Howlin Wolf dictates his own terms on Good to Firm, which he handles, and a sustainable pace on a flat 6f track at Navan means no pacemaker blows up; the winner is most likely to emerge from just behind the leader rather than from far off the pace.
Howlin WolfSomeday SomewhereSupreme LordPrince Of Peppard
B
Prominent Stalker Pounces
22% probability
If a horse tracks Howlin Wolf in second or third throughout and uses the even gallop to quicken past the leader in the final furlong.
With no pressure on the front runner, the gallop remains honest enough that a well-placed prominent tracker can produce a clean, sustained run from two furlongs out without needing a gear change; Someday Somewhere's recent third at 6f on similar ground fits this shape well.
Someday SomewhereSupreme LordPrince Of PeppardTwo Brigade
C
Late Closers Get Lucky
12% probability
If the pace collapses entirely in the final two furlongs and Howlin Wolf fades, opening the door for hold-up types forced wide in the pack.
Given that the genuine closers are compressed into midfield due to redistribution, any late rush requires a significant pace collapse rather than a genuine sustained run; Prince Of Peppard and Two Brigade are the natural beneficiaries but are racing out of their ideal position and must overcome that disadvantage.
Prince Of PeppardTwo BrigadeLucy's PromiseNo Time Faults
D
Messy Midfield Scrimmage
8% probability
If the compressed midfield of redistributed hold-up types causes interference or wide runs, scrambling the result and gifting a place to a lower-rated runner.
With seven horses broadly clustered in a compressed mid-to-rear group chasing one lone leader, traffic issues and wide runs are a genuine risk, potentially elevating an overlooked runner like Lucy's Promise or Little Diva; both carry fitness doubts but low weight could prove decisive in a muddled finish.
Lucy's PromiseLittle DivaNo Time FaultsSomeday Somewhere
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Howlin Wolf's front-running role is uncontested — watch whether it is allowed to dictate a truly soft gallop, as any drift in tempo in the first two furlongs will dramatically inflate the chances of Someday Somewhere or Supreme Lord tracking it home.
WATCH
The compressed midfield of redistributed hold-up types (Prince Of Peppard, Two Brigade, Lucy's Promise, No Time Faults, Little Diva) creates a significant traffic risk in the early stages — watch for scrimmaging off the pace that could knock several runners out of contention before halfway.
WATCH
Someday Somewhere's unquantified running style (U) means positioning is unpredictable — if Jack Kearney elects to drop it in behind rather than track the leader, it may fail to access the ideal stalking position that this race shape sets up.
NOTE
Good to Firm conditions at Navan today are firmer than the declared going implies — all runners have recent form on Good ground, but watch for any horse that showed its best form on softer and is encountering its fastest surface to date.
NOTE
Two Brigade's jockey booking of Colin Keane is the most significant upgrade in the race by reputation — watch whether Keane attempts to push for a more prominent pitch than this horse's natural style warrants, which could either unlock its ability or compromise its energy early.
2:14 — Navan Racing Festival Early Bird Tickets On Sale Now Handicap
6f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Lead contested: Cool Azul v Smoke Them OutHISTORIC
How it ran
Gotta Catch'em All led; the map had Cool Azul and Smoke Them Out in front.
Amiata won at 5.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Cool AzulSmoke Them Out
Prominent · 4
Alfred TennysonBack Down UnderTornado KissAll The Girls
Midfield · 4
Jon RiggensGotta Catch'em AllMary ShoelacesFlaming Rib
Hold Up · 4
AmiataBy The LakeSovereign CrySporting Hero
Cool Azul and Smoke Them Out are the two confirmed front-runners in this 14-runner 6f handicap on Good to Firm ground at Navan, and with both intent on leading, an honest, contested gallop is the near-certain outcome from the off. Cool Azul, trained by A Oliver and ridden by W J Lee, has genuine early pace and recent winning form over course and distance, while Smoke Them Out provides enough pressure to ensure neither can coast in front unchallenged. The honest pace on fast ground over six furlongs creates a race shape that typically plays into the hands of prominent racers who can track the speed without burning petrol in a duel — Alfred Tennyson, Back Down Under, Tornado Kiss, and All The Girls are all positioned to exploit that slot. The field holds more hold-up types than can all get to the rear naturally: Jon Riggens, Gotta Catch'em All, Mary Shoelaces, and Flaming Rib are genuine back-of-the-field horses who have been redistributed to midfield on the map, meaning true late closers will be bunched and competing for the same ground — the tactical verdict firmly favours prominent racers tracking an honest pace and finishing strongly through the final two furlongs.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Racers Dominate
47% probability
If Cool Azul and Smoke Them Out set a strong but not suicidal pace and the prominent trackers land in perfect position turning for home.
The two front-runners burn each other off to a degree, and horses like Alfred Tennyson, Tornado Kiss, and Back Down Under, sitting two to four lengths off the pace, swoop past the spent leaders in the final furlong on the fast surface.
Alfred TennysonTornado KissBack Down UnderAll The Girls
B
Front-Runner Holds On
22% probability
If Cool Azul dominates and dictates a controlled lead, using race fitness from a run nine days ago to conserve energy and repel challengers.
Cool Azul settles to the front under W J Lee and, finding no genuine rival prepared to force the issue from the very first stride, controls the fractions and proves too strong late on fast ground that suits his profile.
Cool AzulSmoke Them OutAlfred TennysonBack Down Under
C
Midfield Closers Pounce
19% probability
If the front-runners go fast enough to leave the race genuinely open in the final furlong and horses mapped to midfield find a clear run.
Sovereign Cry, Amiata, and By The Lake — natural hold-up types but with the ability to travel in mid-division — benefit if the pace is strong enough to set up a dash to the line from behind the leaders.
Sovereign CryAmiataBy The LakeGotta Catch'em All
D
True Hold-Ups Deliver
12% probability
If the pace is truly brutal, the leaders collapse entirely, and genuine back-of-the-field types find an unexpected clear passage through a tiring field.
Jon Riggens, Gotta Catch'em All, and Mary Shoelaces are all racing out of their natural role given the field's density at the rear, substantially reducing this scenario's likelihood; only an unusually strong pace makes it viable.
Jon RiggensGotta Catch'em AllMary ShoelacesFlaming Rib
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Cool Azul and Smoke Them Out — if both go hammer-and-tongs from the gates, watch whether one capitulates before halfway and leaves the other with a clear advantage or both burn out entirely, as this will determine the entire race shape.
WATCH
Alfred Tennyson — dropping back to 6f from 7f, watch his early position; if Sam Coen (5lb) can slot him second or third from the off, this is his ideal scenario, but if he misses the break he loses the benefit of his prominent style.
WATCH
By The Lake — Dylan Browne McMonagle's booking for a horse absent 321 days warrants close watch in the paddock and early strides; a big run is possible but any sign of ring-rustiness will end his chance quickly on fast ground.
NOTE
Gotta Catch'em All and Jon Riggens — both genuine hold-up horses squeezed to midfield by the density at the rear; watch whether either can find a natural gap to drop in behind the pace rather than being forced into a prominent position that negates their strengths.
NOTE
Amiata — Colin Keane is the classiest jockey in the field and will be looking for a path through from hold-up; on Good to Firm ground with a decent pace, watch whether he manages to get a clear run entering the final furlong, as the booking alone makes this one to monitor visually throughout.
2:44 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden
5f · Good · MDN · 9 runners
Southern Boulevard to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Southern Boulevard led, as the map showed.
Atlantic Bridge won at 1.73 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Southern Boulevard
Prominent · 2
Better YetAbletai
Midfield · 3
Rollin'onariverJungle TinaAtlantic Bridge
Hold Up · 3
SyrahRathbran LadyAlways Magic
Southern Boulevard is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine pace rival to challenge her, Colin Keane can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the outset on Good to Firm ground at Navan. Abletai and Better Yet will look to track closely in the prominent positions, while the hold-up brigade — Always Magic, Rathbran Lady, and Syrah — will be committed to closing ground that may never fully materialise at a steady tempo. Atlantic Bridge, Jungle Tina, and Rollin'onariver are unknown quantities whose race-day positioning remains open, but none is confirmed as a front-running threat to disrupt Southern Boulevard's rhythm. With a single uncontested leader controlling the pace on fast ground over 5f, this race shape strongly favours the front-runner and those close enough to her early, as a falsely steady gallop will compress the field and make late ground-making extremely difficult.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front-Runner Controls Unchallenged
68% probability
If Southern Boulevard secures the lead without any rival testing her early, she dictates a controlled gallop and proves difficult to collar.
Colin Keane settles Southern Boulevard into an uncontested rhythm, and the lack of genuine pace pressure means her established 5f course profile over Good ground is an asset rather than a liability. Horses positioned prominently — Abletai and Better Yet — are the main dangers, as they travel close enough to pounce if the leader ties up, but the odds favour the leader holding on.
If Southern Boulevard sets an honest enough gallop that the prominent stalkers Abletai or Better Yet can produce a decisive burst inside the final furlong.
A just-above-average tempo would keep the prominent types primed rather than strung out, and Shane Foley's experience on Better Yet or W J Lee's positional awareness on Abletai could see one of them sprint past a tiring leader in the final 100 yards. Better Yet's placed run over the same conditions gives her the class benchmark to make this credible.
If one of the unexposed newcomers — Jungle Tina or Rollin'onariver — possesses natural speed or tactical versatility to slot into a forward position and make a winning impression.
Debutants on fast, undemanding ground over 5f are always a wildcard, and both carry the same ceiling OR as the rest of the maiden field; Chris Hayes on Rollin'onariver in particular is a jockey capable of exploiting a wide-open pace scenario. Without form to lean on, this is a speculative scenario, but the compressed pace makes it achievable for any horse naturally inclined to race prominently.
If the pace collapses dramatically late and ground opens for Always Magic, Rathbran Lady, or Syrah to deliver a late charge.
All three are genuine hold-up types who need the race run at a true gallop to make up ground on a flat, tight 5f track, and with a single front-runner likely to set a conservative tempo, their closing runs are compromised from the outset. Rathbran Lady and Syrah both carry fade warnings from their form, making this scenario the least likely resolution.
Always MagicSyrahRathbran LadyBetter Yet
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Southern Boulevard — watch whether Colin Keane elects to use her natural early pace aggressively or deliberately settles her; if she builds an uncontested lead of two lengths into the final furlong, she is extremely hard to catch on this flat 5f track.
WATCH
Better Yet — watch her early positioning under Shane Foley; if she tracks Southern Boulevard within a length through the early stages she becomes the most dangerous closer in the race, but if she drops further back than second or third, her chance diminishes sharply.
WATCH
Atlantic Bridge — Dylan Browne McMonagle's presence makes her the unknown factor most likely to outrun her lightly-raced profile; watch if she travels smoothly in the first two furlongs, as that would be a significant positive signal.
NOTE
Jungle Tina and Rollin'onariver — both debutants add positional uncertainty to the map; if either breaks sharply and contests the early lead, the pace dynamic changes and Southern Boulevard's uncontested status is no longer guaranteed.
3:14 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Optional Claiming Maiden
1m · Good · MDN · 7 runners
Equus Victor to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Jezzie Bea and Mickian Thomas led; the map had Equus Victor in front.
This That won at 5.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Equus Victor
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 4
Jezzie BeaFerronniereLeadlightThis That
Hold Up · 2
Summer Sent YouMickian Thomas
Equus Victor is the sole confirmed front-runner in this seven-runner maiden and, with no genuine rival for the early lead, he will stride to the front unchallenged and control every fraction on good-to-firm ground over a mile at Navan. The pace he sets should be honest rather than scorching — a measured gallop dictated entirely on his own terms, which historically favours the horse on the engine. The field nominally contains several hold-up types in Leadlight, This That, Summer Sent You, and Mickian Thomas, but several of these runners carry fade flags and none has shown the tactical speed to seize prominent ground, meaning Equus Victor's lead is structurally secure from the outset. This race shape — a lone, uncontested front-runner setting a sustainable tempo on fast ground — overwhelmingly favours the leader and those who can track closest in the early stages, giving a significant advantage to horses racing forward or just off the pace; closers will need an exceptional turn of foot to reel in a horse who has not been pressured. The field holds more hold-up types than can realistically operate off the back of the field as intended: Leadlight and This That are genuine hold-up horses mapped to midfield because there is insufficient cover at the rear, and Jezzie Bea and Ferronniere are unknown quantities who may not find their natural position either.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Equus Victor Controls Throughout
68% probability
If Equus Victor jumps smartly, finds the lead unchallenged, and sets a sustainable pace that denies closers a target to aim at.
Equus Victor dictates every fraction on good-to-firm ground, conserving enough energy to repel any late challengers around the final bend and into the straight; horses held up off a steady gallop rarely generate sufficient momentum to catch a relaxed front-runner. This scenario is the dominant shape given the total absence of early pace competition and the prevalence of fading hold-up types behind him.
Equus VictorJezzie BeaFerronniereLeadlight
B
Prominent Tracker Collars Leader
17% probability
If Equus Victor's early fractions are slightly quicker than ideal and a prominent horse — most likely Jezzie Bea or Ferronniere — tracks close enough to capitalise in the final furlong.
A horse sitting second or third, just behind Equus Victor's lead, would absorb the pace on a sound surface and have enough freshness to edge past inside the final furlong if the front-runner ties up even marginally. Jezzie Bea has twice run 4th at this trip on similar going and, held by Shane Foley, has the profile to make this play work.
Jezzie BeaFerronniereEquus VictorLeadlight
C
Midfield Horse Closes Late
10% probability
If Equus Victor sets a genuinely fast tempo that leaves him vulnerable and one of the redistributed midfield horses — Leadlight most plausibly — produces a sustained late run.
Leadlight, though a true hold-up type operating out of role in mapped midfield, has Dylan Browne McMonagle aboard and a Joseph O'Brien training angle, giving it the quality to land a telling blow if the front-running pace collapses; however, the STYLE_FIT discount applies as Leadlight is unlikely to be in the ideal position. Good-to-firm ground suits those with a turn of foot but a lone, steady leader rarely collapses enough to gift this scenario.
LeadlightJezzie BeaFerronniereThis That
D
Outsider Springs Surprise
5% probability
If the race falls apart tactically — Equus Victor blows up, pace is chaotic — allowing a rank outsider such as Mickian Thomas or This That to steal a minor share.
This That and Mickian Thomas carry fade flags and have consistently disappointed at the business end of races on similar going, making this scenario the least credible shape in the field. Only a complete pace collapse and field-wide fatigue would bring them into play.
This ThatMickian ThomasSummer Sent YouLeadlight
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Equus Victor's early stride pattern — if Ben Coen allows him to stride out comfortably from the gates with no early challenge, the race is likely decided before halfway and the gap to the field will be decisive.
WATCH
Leadlight and This That are flagged as redistributed hold-up horses likely to race closer than ideal; if they get crowded or fail to find their natural rhythm in the first three furlongs, their finishing efforts will be further compromised.
WATCH
Ferronniere is a debut runner with no going or trip data — watch the betting market in the final 30 minutes for any significant market move that might indicate stable confidence outstripping what the public form book shows.
NOTE
Jezzie Bea's 42-day absence is worth monitoring in the preliminaries — if she looks fresh and well-prepared in the paddock under the Harrington-Foley combination, she becomes the most credible threat to Equus Victor's supremacy.
NOTE
Summer Sent You's trainer K J Condon has zero winners from 13 runners in the past fortnight and she carries a fade flag on identical going — if she does not show early improvement in gate speed, her chance is effectively gone before the field straightens.
3:44 — Curragh To Curragh Charity Cycle This Saturday Handicap (Div I)
1m · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
In A Hurry to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Minaun View led; the map had In A Hurry in front.
Nephin Mountain won at 12.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Bundle Of InterestBill SilversMinaun ViewGood Man Jack
In A Hurry is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 14-runner field and, crucially, faces no genuine pace rival to challenge for the lead — on Good to Firm ground over a flat mile at Navan, that means a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front with Rory Cleary able to dictate every yard. The field behind is dominated by hold-up and midfield types, but the pace map is congested: Kc Bear, Tofino, Nephin Mountain, Alto Sax, Cordouan and Lohengrin are all natural hold-up horses redistributed into midfield slots because there are simply more closers than the track can park at the back — Gloriously Glam and Go Out are the most likely to genuinely secure prominent positions. With an uncontested lead at a sound but not brutal tempo on quick ground, In A Hurry sets up a race that could be won from the front or by a horse travelling just off the pace, as the lack of genuine pressure reduces the advantage for late closers who need a truly strong gallop to deliver their best. This race shape strongly favours horses racing prominently or just off the leader, particularly those with proven form on Good to Firm ground — true hold-up horses will find the tempo insufficient to create the gaps they need.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Lead Holds
52% probability
If In A Hurry bowls along uncontested and Rory Cleary controls the tempo to the point where no rival can close the gap in the straight.
In A Hurry dictates from flag to finish on Good to Firm ground, setting a pace that is brisk enough to be legitimate but not so taxing that it invites a late swamp; with no pressure applied, the leader can conserve energy and quicken again inside the final furlong.
In A HurryGloriously GlamGo OutMinaun View
B
Prominent Horse Pounces
28% probability
If In A Hurry sets a fair pace and a horse racing just off the leader travels strongly enough to reel it in inside the final two furlongs.
Gloriously Glam or Go Out, racing just behind the leader and covering minimal ground, hit the front with a burst that In A Hurry cannot repel; this shape suits horses who can sit second or third, save petrol and produce a sharp turn of foot on fast ground.
Gloriously GlamGo OutMinaun ViewKc Bear
C
Midfield Flier Lands
13% probability
If the pace is genuinely honest and a midfield horse manages to find a clear run in the straight despite the congested field.
Minaun View, with three wins over this exact course and distance on Good ground and a strong recent record, is ideally suited to arriving late off a true gallop; the concern is that a solo front-runner rarely sets a pace generous enough to sweep them up, making this shape reliant on a slightly stronger tempo than expected.
Minaun ViewKc BearTofinoNephin Mountain
D
Pace Collapse, Closers Swamp
7% probability
If In A Hurry goes off too fast or the pace unravels in the straight and a wave of hold-up horses arrives together.
Despite several hold-up types being redistributed into midfield and therefore not truly in their ideal position, a pace collapse could still allow one to run through beaten horses late; however, the prevalence of redistribution in this field means most supposed closers are not positioned for a genuine late run, sharply reducing the probability of this shape materialising.
Alto SaxNephin MountainCordouanLohengrin
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch In A Hurry's early fractions — if Rory Cleary is allowed to stride clear unchallenged in the opening two furlongs, the probability of a front-running winner rises sharply and all hold-up horses can be mentally downgraded.
WATCH
Gloriously Glam's position at the start is critical — Dylan Browne McMonagle must place her immediately behind the leader to make her prominence genuine; if she gets shuffled back in a 14-runner field she loses her tactical edge entirely.
WATCH
Minaun View's winning form at this course and distance on Good ground is the standout statistical flag in the race — if the pace is even slightly stronger than expected, she becomes the principal danger and should be tracked throughout the straight.
NOTE
Multiple hold-up horses (Kc Bear, Tofino, Alto Sax, Nephin Mountain, Cordouan, Lohengrin) are all competing for the same late-running ground; watch for traffic jams and blocked runs in the straight, particularly for Kc Bear with Colin Keane who may attempt to switch wide for a clear passage.
NOTE
The Good to Firm going is confirmed across all races at Navan today — no softening expected — which consistently favours horses on or near the pace at this track; hold-up horses with any question mark over their quick-ground form should be treated with additional caution.
4:15 — Curragh To Curragh Charity Cycle This Saturday Handicap (Div II)
1m · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Mythical Rock likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Borora Aura led; the map had Mythical Rock in front.
Avec Grand Plaisir won at 4.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Mythical Rock
Prominent · 1
Borora Aura
Midfield · 8
SherekiyaCosmic FunkElla's GoldSheamus SeimhiuKingcharlesThe Holy ApostleThink About ItHale Bopp
Hold Up · 4
TrumphLoingseoirComfort LineAvec Grand Plaisir
Mythical Rock is the lone confirmed front runner in a 14-runner field on Good to Firm ground at Navan over a mile, and with no genuine rival to press from the front, Sean Davis can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop that suits a horse happy to bowl along uncontested. Borora Aura is the only other runner mapped prominently, and while she may attempt to track Mythical Rock, she lacks the profile to force the issue and is unlikely to meaningfully increase the tempo. The critical distortion in this field is the volume of genuine hold-up horses — Cosmic Funk, Ella's Gold, Sheamus Seimhiu, Think About It, Kingcharles, The Holy Apostle and Hale Bopp are all true closers who have been redistributed toward midfield on the map because they simply cannot all settle at the rear; in reality, several will be closer to the pace than their natural style suggests, compressing the midfield. A controlled, single-paced gallop from Mythical Rock on fast ground over a mile is the expected shape, and this race favours hold-up horses with a true late kick who can find clear running — specifically those genuine closers like Loingseoir, Comfort Line and Avec Grand Plaisir who have the proven stamina and style to pounce when the pace inevitably moderates in the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Mythical Rock Controls Cleanly
52% probability
If Mythical Rock is allowed to set a steady, uncontested tempo and the field strings out behind without a sustained challenge.
Mythical Rock dictates from the front at a comfortable clip on Good to Firm ground, keeping enough in reserve to sustain the gallop into the straight; genuine hold-up horses launching late runs find the pace was just insufficient to reel in a well-placed rival who tracked close. Prominent runners or those in the first half of the field who can organise a run from just behind the leader are best placed, rewarding horses like Borora Aura and Sherekiya who can sit within striking range.
Avec Grand PlaisirSherekiyaBorora AuraLoingseoir
B
Late Closers Swoop Home
28% probability
If the pace is just fast enough on the Good to Firm surface to bring genuine hold-up horses into play in the final two furlongs.
A true end-to-end gallop, even at a moderate pitch on quick ground, drains the leaders sufficiently for the authentic hold-up horses positioned closest to the rear to arrive with a telling late surge; Loingseoir and Comfort Line, both proven over the trip on similar going, are the profiles to benefit. This shape rewards horses with the patience and staying power to overcome a compressed midfield — those whose redistribution to mid-pack actually places them ideally to launch.
LoingseoirComfort LineAvec Grand PlaisirElla's Gold
C
Prominent Pair Dominate
13% probability
If Borora Aura pushes forward to press Mythical Rock and they combine to produce a race run at a pace that suits those who race handy throughout.
Borora Aura's willingness to race prominently sees the front two set a genuine gallop that burns off the closers, leaving the race between those who sat in the first third of the field; Mythical Rock's style-fit concerns are a real discount but Borora Aura, with course form on this going, could hold on. The compressed midfield crowd each other out and genuine hold-up horses find the sectionals too sharp to bridge the gap.
Borora AuraMythical RockSherekiyaTrumph
D
Pace Collapse Causes Chaos
7% probability
If the moderate gallop bunches the field and a sprint finish develops with multiple horses in contention turning for home.
A slow early tempo causes the 14-runner field to concertina into a tight pack, producing a chaotic shake-up from two furlongs out as jockeys scramble for position; this benefits horses who can quicken sharply from a stalking position rather than deep closers who need a true test of stamina. Shane Foley's experience on Trumph and Chris Hayes aboard Sherekiya give those runners a tactical edge in a scrappy sprint finish, though Trumph's tendency to fade is a concern even in this scenario.
SherekiyaTrumphAvec Grand PlaisirComfort Line
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Borora Aura is the only horse likely to push Mythical Rock for the front — watch whether Wesley Joyce sends her forward from flag-fall, as her decision to press or track will define the tempo and shape of the entire race.
WATCH
Sheamus Seimhiu returns from 304 days off carrying a fade-in-finish flag and cannot secure his natural hold-up berth in this congested field — if he shows signs of rustiness or greenness in the early stages he could cause trouble in the packed midfield.
WATCH
Hale Bopp ran just two days ago and the trainer's decision to run again at such a short turnaround warrants attention in the parade ring — signs of fatigue or stiffness in-running could create interference in the densely packed group of redistributed hold-up horses.
NOTE
The sheer volume of genuine hold-up horses compressed into midfield — Cosmic Funk, Ella's Gold, Think About It, Kingcharles, The Holy Apostle among them — creates a high risk of traffic problems in the straight; watch how jockeys position from the three-furlong marker as gaps may be at a premium.
NOTE
Trumph drops sharply in trip from 12f to 1m on fast ground for the first time, and Shane Foley's presence suggests a bold front-end or prominent ride is possible — monitor whether the horse is loaded into an early prominent position rather than settled mid-pack as his history implies.|
4:49 — GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap
1m6f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners
Lead contested: Sunrush v Mare CrisiumHISTORIC
How it ran
Werifesteria led; the map had Sunrush and Mare Crisium in front.
Sunrush won at 9.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 18 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
SunrushMare Crisium
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 11
WerifesteriaStrike De VegaCascade CanyonSoigneMillhoneConnecteoChloe's BoyChapel IslandStabannonCamecloseNando Lily
Sunrush and Mare Crisium are the two confirmed front-runners in an 18-runner field over 1m6f on Good to Firm ground at Navan, and both are likely to push forward from the start, creating a genuinely contested lead and an honest, even gallop throughout. With two pace horses pulling against each other from the early stages, neither is likely to control tempo entirely, meaning the fractions should be respectable and the race unlikely to turn into a falsely run crawl. The overwhelming majority of this field are hold-up or midfield types, but the redistribution note is critical: Werifesteria, Strike De Vega, Cascade Canyon, Connecteo, Millhone, Soigne, Chapel Island, Chloe's Boy, Stabannon, Cameclose and Nando Lily are all natural hold-up horses shown in midfield simply because there is nowhere else to put them — Sunrush and Mare Crisium are by far the most likely to actually command the early positions. A contested pace over this stamina-testing trip in good-to-firm conditions is a textbook setup for strong-staying hold-up types who can travel through the race and deliver a sustained finish — the race shape clearly favours the genuine deep-closers who can absorb the pressure and pick up in the final two furlongs.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Contested Pace, Closers Prevail
44% probability
If Sunrush and Mare Crisium push each other along at a genuine clip and the field strings out, setting up a test of stamina in the straight.
The two leaders burn each other off through the middle stages, leaving the race wide open for strong-staying types who have been travelling comfortably in mid-to-rear positions; the 1m6f trip on good-to-firm ground rewards those with genuine stamina and a clean turn of foot off the bend.
Chicago MoonLove OrchidBlissful BonitaEssential Comedy
B
One Pacer Dominates Unchallenged
22% probability
If one of Sunrush or Mare Crisium gets loose in front while the other fails to sustain their challenge, allowing a single horse to control tempo and conserve energy.
A lone leader dictating a measured gallop through the middle portion of the race could get first run turning for home and prove very hard to peg back over this stamina trip; Sunrush's slightly better form profile in similar conditions marginally edges this.
SunrushMare CrisiumChicago MoonCascade Canyon
C
Midfield Stalkers Swoop
22% probability
If the pace is genuine enough to string the field out but the closers fail to get clear runs, allowing the stalkers sitting just off the lead to pounce in the straight.
Horses racing in the third to sixth positions behind the leaders would have the ideal position — close enough to benefit from pace collapse, far enough back to have cover — and could prove very hard to pass if they quicken first at the two-furlong pole; this suits any of the hold-up types who manoeuvre into prominent ground early.
Chicago MoonMillhoneChapel IslandConnecteo
D
Slow Pace, Tactical Muddle
12% probability
If one or both pace-setters fail to stride on aggressively and the race is run at a dawdle, turning into a sprint finish off a slow tempo.
A falsely run race over 1m6f would compress the field and reduce the stamina premium, potentially flattening out a race that should suit true stayers; pace-scenario collapse of this kind is genuinely unlikely given two confirmed front-runners are confirmed, but cannot be ruled out entirely in a large amateur-rider influenced field.
WerifesteriaStrike De VegaEssential ComedyParish Team
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Sunrush and Mare Crisium will contest the lead from the outset — watch whether one backs off or if they genuinely push each other along, as the sustained duel will determine whether the pace is fast enough to suit the closers or controlled enough to benefit the front two.
KEY
Chicago Moon (blinkers, De Bromhead, Keane yard in form) is the standout closer with the most relevant piece of form — watch where W J Lee positions him early, as a clear run from midfield turning in is critical to his chances.
WATCH
Connecteo has been absent 54 days for Oliver, who has three runners in this race (Strike De Vega, Chapel Island, Connecteo) — monitor market moves as the stable angle and jockey booking of Ben Coen could indicate which is the yard's main hope.
WATCH
Love Orchid with Colin Keane is the highest-profile booking in the hold-up division outside the De Bromhead runner — an 8f-heavy form record means stamina at 14f needs holding up, and watch whether she travels sweetly through the race or gets outpaced before the turn.
NOTE
With 18 runners, the draw and early positioning for the non-pace horses will be chaotic — any hold-up type getting caught wide or trapped without a run in the final two furlongs would see their chance extinguished in what should be a race run at honest fractions.
5:24 — Racing Next At Navan On Saturday September 5th Handicap
1m6f · Good · HCAP · 26 runners
Makaiah likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Anightaway led; the map had Makaiah in front.
Miss Australie won at 17.00 — was held up, as the map had it.
9 of 22 runners raced in the group the map gave them
MacinamillionEastern Blue BirdWithout LovePhidias OvationMaxwell SmartMystic RosePiatra NeamtFolk WarriorMiners CabinShare The TreasurePlus Or Minus
Hold Up · 8
Miss CrinshawnMiss AustralieKevin The GreatCala GracionetaMs MessiEastern WindDesert FriendAnightaway
Makaiah is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 26-strong field and, with no genuine rival to press for the lead, Shane Foley can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop over this 1m6f trip on Good to Firm ground at Navan. Behind the leader, Stepdance, Arcland, Deluca Chop, Highway Sixty One and Jazz Forever are all prominent-leaning types who will compete for the front ranks, creating an organised but not frenetic pace that should produce a true-run race without excessive early fractions. The hold-up battalion is enormous — Eastern Blue Bird, Macinamillion, Without Love, Maxwell Smart, Folk Warrior and others have been redistributed into midfield on the map because more genuine hold-up horses exist than the race shape can absorb at the rear, and Arcland, Stepdance and Deluca Chop are most likely to secure the prominent positions just behind Makaiah. With the pace honest but measured and the race run on fast ground favouring clean, efficient movers, the race shape strongly favours horses that can sit handy in the prominent-to-midfield group and sustain their effort through the final two furlongs — genuine late closers from deep in the field face the biggest challenge in a large, compressed field where cover and clear runs are uncertain.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Pace, Prominent Wins
47% probability
If Makaiah sets an honest but unhurried gallop and the prominent runners sustain their effort to the line.
Makaiah dictates from the front at a tempo that rewards those who travel smoothly close to the pace, and the hold-up runners find themselves too far back in the large field to reel in the leaders. Stepdance, Arcland and Deluca Chop are best-placed to capitalise on front-rank positions, with the Good to Firm ground rewarding their reliable, honest staying profiles.
ArclandDeluca ChopStepdanceHighway Sixty One
B
Soft Pace Gifts Front-Runner
26% probability
If the large field bunches and the tempo drops further, allowing Makaiah or a prominent rival to steal a race-winning advantage unchallenged.
With 26 runners and no real pace pressure, Makaiah could find herself cantering in front and quickening clear before the backmarkers can organise a challenge. Foley is an accomplished judge of pace and on this track over 1m6f with fast ground, a well-timed injection of speed from the front can be very difficult to peg back in a strung-out field.
MakaiahStepdanceArclandJazz Forever
C
Midfield Stayers Grind Through
18% probability
If the pace proves genuinely strong early and the prominent types empty, enabling the better-staying midfield horses to grind past them in the final furlong.
A stronger-than-expected pace, perhaps injected by one of the prominent types going too hard, would see the field compress in the home straight and reward horses with the best staying ability tracking in midfield. Without Love, Ms Messi and Eastern Wind have the profile for this outcome, sitting close enough to be involved without having led too soon.
Ms MessiWithout LoveEastern WindEastern Blue Bird
D
True Closers Land Late
9% probability
If an unexpectedly strong tempo burns off the leaders and the genuine hold-up horses find a clear passage through the large field.
With so many true hold-up horses redistributed into midfield, most of the field's real closers are unlikely to get their natural rearward position, severely limiting the probability of a classic late-swooping result. Only if the race degenerates into a genuine test of stamina from the front does any redistributed hold-up type find enough room to sweep past late.
MacinamillionFolk WarriorMiss CrinshawnKevin The Great
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Arcland has an outstanding sim-going record (3W8P from 13 runs) and drops in distance from marathon trips — if Gavin Cromwell has primed him for this, he is the most dangerous horse in the race from a prominent position.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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