Archive›Newcastle · 11 April 2026

Newcastle

11 April 2026 · 7 races

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12:55 — QuinnBet Conditional Jockeys' Training Series Mares' Handicap Hurdle (Part Of The Racing Excellence)

2m7½f · Standard · HCAP · 5 runners

Pepite De Saphir likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

It's Maisy led; the map had Pepite De Saphir in front.

It's Maisy won at 1.50 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Pepite De Saphir

Prominent · 1

Royal Maggs

Midfield · 1

It's Maisy

Hold Up · 2

SeasmokeStrathcatcha

Pepite De Saphir will control this race from the front with no serious pace pressure, setting a measured gallop that suits her sustainable style. Royal Maggs and It's Maisy will track prominently but neither has shown any desire to press early, leaving the leader comfortable through the middle stages. With Seasmoke and Strathcatcha both hold-up horses, the lack of early pace will compress the field entering the straight. This shape strongly favours prominent runners who can position close to the pace, as the soft early gallop will leave them perfectly placed to kick when the race develops.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

45% probability

If Pepite De Saphir gets an easy lead and dictates throughout

Her sustainable pace style gets the perfect setup with no early pressure, allowing her to control splits and have enough left for the finish. The 413-day break becomes less relevant when she can dictate terms.

Pepite De SaphirIt's MaisyRoyal MaggsSeasmoke

Prominent Pressure Cooker

30% probability

If Royal Maggs and It's Maisy move up to challenge the leader turning for home

The race becomes a battle between the three prominent runners, with It's Maisy's superior recent form and stronger finish giving her the edge over Pepite De Saphir's long absence. Royal Maggs fades as usual in the final furlong.

It's MaisySeasmokePepite De SaphirRoyal Maggs

Hold-Up Horse Revival

15% probability

If the early pace is truly pedestrian and the race becomes a sprint from the last hurdle

Seasmoke's consistent recent form and hold-up style could be perfectly suited if the race turns into a dash, with his finishing kick proving superior to tired prominent runners. Strathcatcha lacks the class to capitalize despite similar tactics.

SeasmokeIt's MaisyPepite De SaphirRoyal Maggs

Pace Collapse Surprise

10% probability

If Pepite De Saphir doesn't handle the return from her long break and the race fragments

The lack of genuine pace-setters creates a messy, stop-start affair where the most recent form and fitness matters most. It's Maisy benefits from her consistency while others struggle with the tactical puzzle.

It's MaisySeasmokeRoyal MaggsPepite De Saphir

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Pepite De Saphir's fitness after 413 days off - any signs of distress or hard breathing early will end her chances quickly

WATCH

Royal Maggs repeating her fade pattern in the final furlong despite the weight relief from her apprentice jockey

NOTE

It's Maisy's jumping rhythm - she needs to travel smoothly to capitalize on her superior recent form

WATCH

The early pace development - if no horse wants to go on with Pepite De Saphir, the race could become crawling

NOTE

Seasmoke's position turning for home - needs to be close enough to strike given the likely lack of genuine pace

1:30 — QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase

2m4f · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners

Independent Jimmy to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Bravethewaves led; the map had Independent Jimmy in front.

The Clonmel Kid won at 5.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Independent Jimmy

Prominent · 3

The Clonmel KidHawkseye ViewQuickasican

Midfield · 1

Kingston Rock

Hold Up · 2

Empty NestBravethewaves

Independent Jimmy is a non-runner, removing the sole confirmed front runner from this field. This leaves The Clonmel Kid, Hawkseye View, Kingston Rock and Quickasican all showing prominent tendencies, creating potential for a messy early pace battle. With no natural leader, the pace could become stop-start or overly competitive as multiple horses jostle for position. This tactical void and likely uneven gallop strongly favours the hold-up horses Empty Nest and Bravethewaves who can sit off the chaos and pounce late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Capitalize

45% probability

If the prominent runners clash early and create an uneven pace

The lack of a natural leader causes tactical confusion up front, allowing the patient riders on Empty Nest and Bravethewaves to time their challenges perfectly. The hold-up horses benefit from a truly-run finish after the early scrambling.

Empty NestBravethewavesThe Clonmel KidHawkseye View

The Clonmel Kid Dominates

30% probability

If The Clonmel Kid can assert early and control the tempo from the front

Philip Kirby's charge uses his class advantage and prominent style to dictate terms without Independent Jimmy to pressure him. His superior OR of 100 and good recent form tells as the race develops into a test of stamina.

The Clonmel KidHawkseye ViewEmpty NestKingston Rock

Hawkseye View Times It

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish

The Joel Parkinson/Sue Smith runner benefits from their recent winner's form and sits perfectly placed to strike late in a tactical affair. His recent course success at this trip gives him the edge in a slowly-run contest.

Hawkseye ViewThe Clonmel KidEmpty NestBravethewaves

Pace Chaos Benefits Outsider

10% probability

If Kingston Rock or Quickasican avoid the early scramble and find clear passage

The veteran campaigners use their experience to navigate the tactical minefield while the fancied runners compromise each other. Kingston Rock's light weight of 142lbs becomes a significant advantage late in the piece.

Kingston RockQuickasicanThe Clonmel KidEmpty Nest

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Independent Jimmy's withdrawal removes the pace angle entirely - this completely changes how the race will be run tactically

WATCH

Watch for The Clonmel Kid to be sent forward early to fill the pace void, which could compromise his finishing kick

WATCH

Empty Nest and Bravethewaves could get too far back if the pace becomes truly crawling without a leader

NOTE

Kingston Rock's 142lbs is significantly lighter than his rivals, watch for late momentum with the weight advantage

NOTE

Hawkseye View has winning form fresh in mind but may get caught up in early prominent battle without clear leader

2:07 — John Hanley Forever Lucky Number 7 Handicap Hurdle

2m4½f · Standard · HCAP · 13 runners

Camarrate to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Diamond Trilogy led; the map had Camarrate in front.

Camarrate won at 6.50 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Camarrate

Prominent · 4

Abbey ScopeLone StarAchnamaraToby Two Scoops

Midfield · 4

Valtteri Its JamesThe Final BrigLong Time ListenerDiamond Trilogy

Hold Up · 4

Noble GeorgeLargy MeadowCher TaraNational Question

Camarrate will be the sole confirmed front runner and faces no early pressure from fellow leaders, allowing him to dictate a sustainable tempo through the early stages. The prominent runners Abbey Scope, Lone Star, Toby Two Scoops and Achnamara will sit tracking but are unlikely to force the pace, while the bulk of the field consists of hold-up horses including Cher Tara, National Question and Valtteri Its James who will need the race to develop. With one uncontested leader setting honest fractions and no speed battle early, this race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can capitalise on the controlled tempo.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Camarrate maintains his comfortable lead and kicks clear approaching the final flight

The sustainable early pace allows him to conserve energy for a decisive move, while the hold-up horses face too much ground to make up. His recent form shows effectiveness when allowed to dictate terms.

CamarrateAbbey ScopeLone StarToby Two Scoops

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If Abbey Scope or Lone Star can position perfectly behind Camarrate and time their challenge

The honest tempo sets up perfectly for a well-positioned tracker to strike in the closing stages. Abbey Scope's trainer Nicky Richards has excellent recent form and the horse shows strong tactical speed.

Abbey ScopeLone StarToby Two ScoopsAchnamara

Hold-Up Horse Charges Late

15% probability

If the early pace becomes overly sedate allowing National Question or Cher Tara to close strongly

National Question's recent winning form and proven stamina could see him overcome the tactical disadvantage. The large field may create enough pace collapse to bring the closers into play.

National QuestionCher TaraValtteri Its JamesNoble George

Pace Collapse Scramble

10% probability

If Camarrate stops quickly and the prominent horses fail to capitalise

A messy finish develops where any horse with a finishing kick can benefit from the tactical chaos. The race becomes a lottery favouring those with the most recent race fitness.

Toby Two ScoopsAchnamaraNational QuestionAbbey Scope

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Camarrate gets headed early as he has shown vulnerability when pressured in recent starts

WATCH

Monitor Abbey Scope's positioning turning in as Danny McMenamin needs to time his challenge perfectly from tracking position

WATCH

Check if National Question can overcome the tactical disadvantage as his recent wins suggest strong current form

NOTE

Observe Toby Two Scoops despite 44-day absence as the 4-year-old carries minimal weight and has shown consistent ability

NOTE

Watch for any early pace pressure on Camarrate from the prominent horses that could change the entire race dynamic

2:42 — Acorn Catering Equipment Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m4f · Standard · HCAP · 6 runners

Hello Judge to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Hello Judge led, as the map showed.

Parisencore won at 3.25 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hello Judge

Prominent · 2

ParisencoreOld Gregorian

Midfield · 1

Glory And Honour

Hold Up · 2

GeryvilleSpecial Rate

Hello Judge will take this field along as the sole confirmed front runner, setting a sustainable tempo without early pressure. Parisencore and Glory And Honour are likely to sit prominent in second and third, tracking the leader through the early stages. The pace should be honest but not fierce, with Special Rate and Geryville held up in rear looking to finish strongly up the home straight. This moderate gallop and lack of early pace pressure clearly favours the hold-up horses who can deliver late finishing kicks.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If Hello Judge sets a steady pace without fierce early tempo

The moderate gallop allows the back markers to conserve energy and unleash strong late runs. Special Rate and Geryville can time their challenges perfectly in the final two furlongs.

Special RateGeryvilleHello JudgeParisencore

Prominent Trackers Strike

25% probability

If the pace becomes slightly stronger than expected mid-race

Parisencore and Glory And Honour can kick clear from their tracking positions before the hold-up horses get organized. Their prominent positions give them first run on the leaders.

ParisencoreGlory And HonourSpecial RateHello Judge

Hello Judge Stays On

12% probability

If the leader gets an easy time of it and finds extra reserves

The front runner capitalizes on soft fractions by maintaining his gallop when challenged. His recent winning form suggests he has the stamina to see out this trip from the front.

Hello JudgeSpecial RateParisencoreGeryville

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If Hello Judge goes too slow and creates a sprint finish

The race becomes a dash from the last fence with all runners still in contention. The freshest horse or best turn of foot decides the outcome in a bunched finish.

Glory And HonourGeryvilleSpecial RateParisencore

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hello Judge could get loose on the lead if no pressure applied - watch for him stealing decisive advantage

WATCH

Special Rate needs the pace to develop properly - dangerous if Hello Judge sets honest fractions

WATCH

Glory And Honour faces fitness test after 190-day absence despite headgear changes suggesting readiness

NOTE

Geryville carries 7lb penalty for recent win but Alice Stevens' claim negates this completely

NOTE

Parisencore's 69-day break could be significant but stable in excellent form with 6 winners from 7 runners

3:25 — acorn-catering.co.uk Handicap Hurdle

2m1f · Standard · HCAP · 6 runners

Lead contested: Thank You Blue v Double DigitsHISTORIC

How it ran

Thank You Blue led, as the map showed.

Filibustering won at 3.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Thank You BlueDouble Digits

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

InappropriateAs Fast As Wind

Hold Up · 2

Bust A MoveFilibustering

Double Digits and Thank You Blue will clash early as both confirmed front runners, setting an honest gallop over this 2m1f trip. With only six runners, the pace won't be frantic but will be genuine throughout, as both leaders have recent wins and will want to dictate. The four hold-up horses (Bust A Move, As Fast As Wind, Inappropriate, Filibustering) will track behind in a compact group. This honest but not breakneck pace clearly favours the prominent runners and those with tactical speed, as the hold-up quartet may struggle to make up ground in a small field with limited pace collapse.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If one of the leaders gets first run and kicks clear approaching the last

The winner sustains their effort while the hold-up horses find traffic problems in the small field. Thank You Blue's recent hat-trick form or Double Digits' course experience proves decisive.

Thank You BlueDouble DigitsAs Fast As WindFilibustering

Late Closer Strikes

30% probability

If the two leaders go too hard early and tire in the closing stages

The pace collapse allows one of the hold-up horses to sweep past, with Bust A Move or As Fast As Wind benefiting from their higher class ratings. The 125-day break may have freshened Bust A Move perfectly.

Bust A MoveAs Fast As WindThank You BlueDouble Digits

Tactical Speed Wins

15% probability

If the early pace is moderate and it becomes a sprint from the last

Filibustering's recent run and tactical pace proves ideal for a finish where pure speed matters most. The compact field allows Ryan Mania to time his challenge perfectly.

FilibusteringInappropriateThank You BlueAs Fast As Wind

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If both leaders fold dramatically and the race falls apart

Multiple horses hit the front simultaneously in a messy finish where anything can happen. The lightest-weighted As Fast As Wind could capitalize on the chaos with Harry Reed's 3lb claim.

As Fast As WindInappropriateBust A MoveFilibustering

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Thank You Blue and Double Digits clash early - if they go too fast they'll both stop

WATCH

Bust A Move returning after 125 days off - watch for signs of fitness in the paddock

NOTE

As Fast As Wind carries lightest weight - could be value if the pace collapses

WATCH

Small field of six means limited room for hold-up horses to weave through

NOTE

Ryan Mania on Filibustering has recent course knowledge from 12 days ago

4:32 — QuinnBet Extra Places Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m4½f · Standard · NOV · 7 runners

Dotties Promise to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Lost Frequencies led; the map had Dotties Promise in front.

Dunkerque won at 8.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Dotties Promise

Prominent · 3

Hashtag QueenExecutive ProducerLost Frequencies

Midfield · 1

Port Station

Hold Up · 2

DunkerqueDiamond Koda

Dotties Promise will lead from the start with no serious pace pressure, setting a controlled gallop over this 2m4½f trip. Lost Frequencies, Executive Producer and Hashtag Queen will track prominently but none are aggressive early pacers. The modest early tempo will create a sprint finish where horses need tactical speed rather than stamina. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and front-runners who can control their position and kick from the front half of the field when the pace lifts.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Running

45% probability

If Dotties Promise maintains a steady tempo and isn't pressured early

The race becomes a tactical affair where position trumps pure ability, and horses with tactical speed benefit from controlled fractions. Front-runners and prominent racers can time their efforts perfectly from advanced positions.

Lost FrequenciesDotties PromiseExecutive ProducerHashtag Queen

Late Pace Injection

30% probability

If Lost Frequencies or Executive Producer apply pressure from halfway

The tempo quickens significantly in the final mile, creating a stronger test that suits horses with proven stamina reserves. This favours the classier performers who can respond to increased pace demands.

Lost FrequenciesExecutive ProducerDiamond KodaPort Station

Hold-Up Hero Charge

15% probability

If the pace stays very sedate and bunches the field approaching the final flight

A sprint finish develops where the best turn of foot wins regardless of early position. Patient riders with horses held up can unleash devastating late kicks through gaps.

Diamond KodaPort StationDunkerqueExecutive Producer

Pace Collapse Scramble

10% probability

If Dotties Promise stops quickly or makes jumping errors when pressured

The race falls apart tactically with horses coming from all angles in a messy finish. Any horse with tactical awareness and a willing attitude can capitalize on the chaos.

Hashtag QueenDunkerquePort StationDiamond Koda

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Dotties Promise jumping under pressure - any early mistakes could derail the controlled pace scenario entirely

WATCH

Lost Frequencies positioning in first mile - needs to avoid getting trapped behind the moderate tempo if it becomes stop-start

NOTE

Diamond Koda and Port Station early positioning - both need to be handy enough to strike if the pace doesn't develop

WATCH

Executive Producer handling trip extension - significant step up to 2m4½f with limited recent evidence over distance

NOTE

Track conditions through card - good ground reading consistent but any changes could impact hold-up horses most

5:10 — High Gosforth Park Golf Club Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 2 Elimination) (GBB Race)

2m1f · Standard · CLS5 · 12 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 11 April 2026.

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