Archive›Newcastle (AW) · 13 April 2026

Newcastle (AW)

13 April 2026 · 7 races

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5:30 — Download The At The Races App Handicap

1m2f · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners

Lead contested: Sovereign Bright v MeritocraticFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Sovereign Bright led, as the map showed.

Pantile's Gift won at 2.38 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Sovereign BrightMeritocratic

Prominent · 1

Pantile's Gift

Midfield · 2

Project KinsmanDue To Shine

Hold Up · 2

Raven's ViewFuzeyya

Sovereign Bright and Meritocratic will contest the early lead, with both confirmed front-runners likely to go hard from the start over this 1m2f trip. Pantile's Gift sits prominent behind them while the remaining four runners (Raven's View, Fuzeyya, Project Kinsman, Due To Shine) are all hold-up types who will be well back early. With only two genuine pace-setters in a small field, the early gallop may not be truly testing, allowing the leaders to dictate. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid traffic problems and capitalize on a potentially moderate early pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leaders Dominate Small Field

45% probability

If the early pace between Sovereign Bright and Meritocratic proves moderate rather than punishing

The two front-runners can dictate terms and prove hard to peg back, with Pantile's Gift best placed to pick up the pieces if either fades. The hold-up horses face a tactical nightmare with limited pace to aim at.

Sovereign BrightPantile's GiftMeritocraticRaven's View

Pace Collapse Benefits Closers

30% probability

If both front-runners go too conservatively and create a sprint finish

The race becomes a dash from the 2f pole where the fresher hold-up horses can unleash their turns of foot. Raven's View and Fuzeyya benefit most from the step up in trip under these conditions.

Raven's ViewFuzeyyaPantile's GiftDue To Shine

Honest Gallop Suits Prominent

15% probability

If Sovereign Bright and Meritocratic engage in a genuine battle that creates a true test

Pantile's Gift gets the perfect setup sitting behind two committed leaders, inheriting their pace work while staying out of trouble. The hold-up horses struggle to make up ground in the straight.

Pantile's GiftSovereign BrightMeritocraticRaven's View

Complete Pace Collapse

10% probability

If both leaders go extremely slowly and create a tactical mess

The race becomes a complete lottery with positioning crucial in the final 2f. Any horse can win but those with tactical speed have the edge in a bunched finish.

MeritocraticDue To ShinePantile's GiftFuzeyya

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for a pedestrian early pace if Sovereign Bright and Meritocratic refuse to engage, creating a tactical mess

WATCH

Monitor Meritocratic's fitness after 112 days off as any weakness could leave Sovereign Bright with an uncontested lead

NOTE

Observe Pantile's Gift's position turning for home as Hollie Doyle may need to commit earlier than ideal with limited pace up front

WATCH

Check if any of the hold-up horses get badly positioned early as they'll struggle to make up ground in a slowly-run race

NOTE

Watch Raven's View's stamina at this new trip as the step up from 7f to 1m2f represents a significant test

6:00 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap

6f · Standard · HCAP · 14 runners

Fille Unique likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Fille Unique led, as the map showed.

Pivotal Terms won at 34.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Fille Unique

Prominent · 5

Northern TempestCosmic ClaretsTaaklamStromnessFull Gas

Midfield · 4

Anorah UnleashedBrain FreezeForever TwentyPivotal Terms

Hold Up · 4

Thornaby AnnieMarra DonnaCarnation QueenMademoiselle Belle

Fille Unique will make the running from her prominent position with Northern Tempest, Taaklam, Stromness, Anorah Unleashed, Full Gas and Cosmic Clarets all likely to race handy in the opening stages. This creates a genuine pace scenario over 6f with multiple horses wanting to be forward, particularly dangerous given the sharp Newcastle track configuration. The large field of 14 and multiple pace angles will create a fast gallop that should set up perfectly for the hold-up horses to finish strongly. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up merchants like Marra Donna, Thornaby Annie, Mademoiselle Belle, Carnation Queen, Forever Twenty and Pivotal Terms who can sit off the pace and unleash late runs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Collapse

55% probability

If the prominent runners go too fast early and multiple pace angles clash

The strong gallop will find out the leaders in the final furlong as they tie up, allowing the patient hold-up horses to sweep past with superior finishing kicks. Hold-up runners with tactical speed like Marra Donna and Mademoiselle Belle are perfectly positioned to capitalize on this likely outcome.

Marra DonnaMademoiselle BelleThornaby AnnieCarnation Queen

Controlled Pace Battle

25% probability

If Fille Unique manages to dictate reasonable fractions without serious early pressure

The race becomes more tactical with the leader able to kick clear, though prominent runners like Northern Tempest and Anorah Unleashed can still challenge if the pace doesn't collapse completely. This moderate tempo scenario gives versatile prominent runners their best chance.

Northern TempestAnorah UnleashedFille UniqueTaaklam

Late Surge Surprise

12% probability

If an unconsidered hold-up horse produces an explosive late run from the back

The strong early pace sets up a finish where a horse given time and space can produce a devastating late charge from seemingly impossible positions. Pivotal Terms or Forever Twenty could benefit from this scenario despite their recent struggles.

Pivotal TermsForever TwentyCosmic ClaretsFull Gas

Front Runner Survives

8% probability

If Fille Unique gets soft early splits and kicks clear of tiring challengers

The leader manages to control the race tactically and has enough in reserve to hold off late challenges, with the pace angle working in her favor rather than against. This requires everything to fall perfectly for the front end.

Fille UniqueStromnessNorthern TempestBrain Freeze

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Fille Unique could steal this if she gets uncontested lead and the pace pressure doesn't materialize early

WATCH

Multiple prominent runners Northern Tempest, Anorah Unleashed and Taaklam could create pace chaos if they all go forward together

WATCH

Marra Donna has the perfect hold-up style for this race shape but needs the strong pace scenario to develop

NOTE

Mademoiselle Belle wearing cheekpieces could produce another bold effort from off the pace like her recent win

NOTE

Market support for Pivotal Terms would suggest stable confidence after her recent Tapeta struggles

6:30 — Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Restricted Novice Stakes (For horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

7f · Standard · NOV · 11 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

7:00 — Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap

6f · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners

Wicket Keeper likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Evening Saigon won at 2.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Wicket Keeper

Prominent · 3

Paddy's DayEvening SaigonWilliam Dewhirst

Midfield · 3

Strike RedGrant WoodCajetan

Hold Up · 3

ToyotomiAlbasheerThe Caltonian

Wicket Keeper will likely lead from his prominent style, with Paddy's Day and Evening Saigon tracking close behind in the early pace. At 6f on the all-weather, this moderate pace should hold together without collapse, creating an even tempo throughout. The substantial hold-up contingent of Toyotomi, Albasheer, Strike Red, The Caltonian, Grant Wood and Cajetan will need the pace to be genuine to get competitive. This race shape strongly favours the prominent runners who can position handy and kick, as they avoid the traffic issues that will plague the large hold-up group.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

55% probability

If Wicket Keeper sets a moderate pace that holds together

The handy horses can travel smoothly and have first run on the field, while the hold-up brigade gets caught in traffic behind a wall of runners. Paddy's Day and Evening Saigon are perfectly positioned to strike.

Evening SaigonPaddy's DayWicket KeeperWilliam Dewhirst

Hold-Up Brigade Emerges

25% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong and the race opens up

The prominent horses tie up after pressing too hard, allowing the closers clear runs to mount their challenges effectively. Grant Wood and The Caltonian can time their runs perfectly.

Grant WoodThe CaltonianToyotomiAlbasheer

Wicket Keeper Wire-to-Wire

12% probability

If Wicket Keeper gets soft fractions and finds another gear

The leader proves too strong when asked for effort, maintaining his advantage as the field comes to him but cannot get past. His recent fourth showing improved form supports this outcome.

Wicket KeeperEvening SaigonPaddy's DayGrant Wood

Pace Collapse Benefits Closer

8% probability

If the early pace is crawling and kicks late

The race becomes a sprint from the 2f pole, suiting a horse with tactical speed who can quicken sharply. Toyotomi's hold-up style and gelding operation could unlock improvement.

ToyotomiAlbasheerGrant WoodEvening Saigon

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Wicket Keeper could steal this if getting uncontested lead and soft fractions from his natural front-running position

WATCH

Traffic problems likely in straight with six hold-up runners needing room simultaneously behind moderate early pace

NOTE

Paddy's Day stretching to 6f with tongue tie suggests connections expecting more, but distance remains question mark

WATCH

Evening Saigon and Grant Wood both returning from breaks but showing better recent form than most rivals

NOTE

The Caltonian's blinkers and hold-up style needs genuine pace to be competitive against this field

7:30 — Free Bets On attheraces.com Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

1m · Standard · CLS4 · 8 runners

Showcasing Star to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sovereign Bay led; the map had Showcasing Star in front.

Eddaari won at 2.10 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Showcasing Star

Prominent · 2

EddaariSovereign Bay

Midfield · 3

Heathers FeatherFar Far OutMaster Of Entropy

Hold Up · 2

Too Darn SpicyAlembic

Showcasing Star is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the gates, setting what should be a sustainable gallop without early pressure. Eddaari and Sovereign Bay are the prominent runners who will track just behind, while the majority including Far Far Out, Heathers Feather, Master Of Entropy, Too Darn Spicy and Alembic are hold-up types who need the race to develop. With minimal early pace pressure, Showcasing Star can control fractions and the race may not open up sufficiently for the closers until too late. This race shape clearly favours the pace-setters and prominent racers who can secure good tactical positions early.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Showcasing Star Controls

45% probability

If Showcasing Star gets an easy lead and dictates moderate fractions.

The lone leader faces minimal early pressure and can quicken when it matters, making life difficult for the hold-up brigade who need a strong pace to be effective. This tactical advantage could overcome his form deficiency and deliver the improvement his connections seek.

Showcasing StarEddaariSovereign BayFar Far Out

Prominent Pair Strike

35% probability

If Eddaari and Sovereign Bay track the leader perfectly and pounce late.

Both prominent runners get ideal trips behind the uncontested leader and can use their superior form figures when the race opens up in the final two furlongs. Eddaari's class edge from his turf runs gives him the final say over the consistent but limited Sovereign Bay.

EddaariSovereign BayShowcasing StarFar Far Out

Newcomer Surprise

12% probability

If Far Far Out or Heathers Feather show significant improvement from their debuts.

The Varian or Waggott newcomer produces the step forward that lightly-raced types often show, overcoming the tactical disadvantage through sheer ability. Their inexperience at judging pace could prove costly but raw talent might prevail if the fractions collapse.

Far Far OutHeathers FeatherEddaariShowcasing Star

Hold-Up Horror Show

8% probability

If the pace is too slow and the closers get caught flat-footed.

The lack of early speed creates a sprint finish that doesn't suit any of the hold-up horses, leaving them with too much ground to make up. Master Of Entropy, Too Darn Spicy and Alembic all struggle to land a blow despite their jockeys' best efforts to find racing room.

Showcasing StarEddaariSovereign BayFar Far Out

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Showcasing Star getting an uncontested lead could prove decisive if he can dictate comfortable fractions throughout.

WATCH

Far Far Out or Heathers Feather showing early pace keenness would completely alter the tactical complexion and help the hold-up horses.

WATCH

Eddaari's fitness after 137 days off - any signs of rustiness early could hand tactical advantage to lesser rivals.

NOTE

The market move on any of the hold-up debutants would suggest significant home work and potential for upset.

NOTE

Sovereign Bay's hood application suggesting connections expect improvement from this consistent but limited performer.

8:00 — Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap

1m · Standard · HCAP · 11 runners

The Cookstown Cafu likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Teggy Lasso and Falaise Blanc led; the map had The Cookstown Cafu in front.

The Cookstown Cafu won at 4.00 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

The Cookstown Cafu

Prominent · 2

Sassy GloryFalaise Blanc

Midfield · 5

Book Of LifeBerkshire PhantomTeggy LassoTrais FluorsLady Delila

Hold Up · 3

BarleybrownRocket RodMercurius Power

The Cookstown Cafu is the only confirmed front runner and will set a sustainable pace without pressure from the early stages. Sassy Glory and Falaise Blanc may track prominently but neither has the pace to challenge for the lead early. The lack of pace pressure means The Cookstown Cafu can dictate terms through steady fractions before the large pack of hold-up horses try to make their moves in the final two furlongs. This moderate gallop strongly favors prominent runners who can stay close to the pace and hold-up horses with a strong finishing kick, while making it difficult for anything settling too far back to make up the ground.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustainable Pace Holds

45% probability

If The Cookstown Cafu maintains control without serious pace pressure through halfway

The steady tempo allows the leader to stay strong late while prominent trackers get first run on the field. Hold-up horses settling too far back struggle to make up enough ground in the straight.

The Cookstown CafuSassy GloryBarleybrownBook Of Life

Late Kick Prevails

30% probability

If the pace becomes crawling through the middle sections

The lack of early tempo turns this into a sprint finish where horses with the strongest turn of foot can unleash from off the pace. Class horses with finishing speed benefit most from the tactical nature.

BarleybrownMercurius PowerTrais FluorsLady Delila

Prominent Pressure Builds

15% probability

If Sassy Glory or Falaise Blanc apply more pace pressure than expected

Increased tempo weakens the front runners and creates opportunities for horses tracking in fourth or fifth position. The increased gallop suits horses that can sit handy without being on the lead.

Book Of LifeTeggy LassoBerkshire PhantomMercurius Power

Complete Pace Collapse

10% probability

If all the early runners go extremely slowly through the first half mile

The race becomes a desperate scramble from the back where only horses with explosive finishing speed can win. Raw pace from the rear becomes essential rather than positional advantage.

Mercurius PowerLady DelilaTrais FluorsRocket Rod

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

The Cookstown Cafu's 105-day layoff could see him stop quickly if the pace quickens in the final quarter mile

WATCH

Rocket Rod is making only his second start back after nearly two years off and may need the run badly

NOTE

Barleybrown's hold-up style needs sufficient pace on to be effective so watch how fast the early fractions develop

WATCH

Teggy Lasso's additional tongue tie suggests trainer concerns about his breathing or settling

NOTE

Book Of Life has been runner-up three times recently so watch if he can finally convert place form into a win

8:30 — Follow @AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap

5f · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners

Hover On The Wind likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Zuffolo led; the map had Hover On The Wind in front.

Rock Of England won at 8.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hover On The Wind

Prominent · 3

Blue ForceDarlo PrideHerakles

Midfield · 3

GaneshaZuffoloBonito Cavalo

Hold Up · 3

Dc CogentRock Of EnglandBrian The Snail

Hover On The Wind will likely dictate from the front with Darlo Pride, Herakles, Ganesha, Blue Force and Zuffolo all capable of tracking closely in this sprint. The pace should be honest but not frantic given the single confirmed leader, allowing the field to stay bunched into the final furlong. Over this stiff 5f at Newcastle, horses need to be positioned handy to have any chance, as hold-up runners like Dc Cogent, Rock Of England, Brian The Snail and Bonito Cavalo will struggle to make up ground from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can travel well and have a turn of foot.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Triumph

45% probability

If the pace is steady and Hover On The Wind sets sustainable fractions

The race becomes a sprint from 2f out where horses with tactical speed can pounce, suiting those who raced prominently but kept something in reserve. Blue Force and Herakles are perfectly positioned to exploit their C&D experience.

Blue ForceHeraklesDarlo PrideGanesha

Front Runner Sustains

30% probability

If Hover On The Wind gets an easy lead and kicks clear turning for home

The leader's class tells under these conditions, while any prominent runners who went too early get swamped by the pace. His December C&D win shows he can handle these tactics when getting his own way up front.

Hover On The WindDarlo PrideBlue ForceZuffolo

Hold-Up Horse Charges

15% probability

If the early pace is stronger than expected and the leaders come back

The race falls apart in the final furlong, allowing Dc Cogent or Rock Of England to use their finishing kicks. However, this requires a collapse up front which seems unlikely given the lack of pace pressure.

Dc CogentRock Of EnglandBrian The SnailBonito Cavalo

Long Shot Surprise

10% probability

If the form horses fail to handle the return to this track or distance

An outsider like Zuffolo returning from his break or Bonito Cavalo exploiting his reduced mark can capitalise on favourite failure. This requires multiple things to go wrong for the principals.

ZuffoloBonito CavaloBrian The SnailGanesha

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hover On The Wind must be watched for market confidence as the likely leader needs to justify 135lbs topweight

WATCH

Blue Force's betting movements crucial given his strong Tapeta record and recent return to form at Wolverhampton

NOTE

Rock Of England's position early will indicate connections' confidence after his disappointing Southwell reappearance

WATCH

Zuffolo's early position critical as his front-running style from the long break could disrupt the pace scenario

NOTE

Darlo Pride needs to overcome 34-day break but his consistent standard going form makes him a reliable each-way option

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 13 April 2026.

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