Archive›Newcastle (AW) · 19 May 2026

Newcastle (AW)

19 May 2026 · 7 races

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2:30 — Celebrating 10 Years Of Tapeta At Newcastle Apprentice Handicap

2m½f · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners

Stitching Wheel likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Nymphaea led; the map had Stitching Wheel in front.

Edwardtheninth won at 2.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Stitching Wheel

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

AngelardoEdwardtheninthNymphaeaStar Of JupiterEbendi

Hold Up · 1

Lady Phoebe

With only Stitching Wheel showing front-running tendencies in a field of seven predominantly hold-up horses, this will develop into a slowly-run affair. Stitching Wheel can dictate terms unchallenged through the early stages, with the pack of hold-up performers including Lady Phoebe, Star Of Jupiter, and Angelardo tracking behind in a bunched group. The lack of pace pressure means the race will become a sprint finish over the final 3-4 furlongs, as the field closes up on the long-time leader. This tactical setup strongly favours horses with a finishing kick who can quicken off the steady gallop, particularly those proven over the distance.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Kicks

45% probability

If Stitching Wheel gets an uninterrupted easy lead and finds improvement off the steady pace.

The Chris Grant-trained four-year-old can build an unassailable advantage through the middle stages before the closers react. His recent headgear change suggests connections are looking for renewed spark in this easier grade.

Stitching WheelLady PhoebeStar Of JupiterAngelardo

Strong Stayer Prevails

30% probability

If the steady pace sets up perfectly for a proven distance performer with a turn of foot.

Lady Phoebe's comfortable 2m5f Pontefract win demonstrates her stamina reserves, and she can time her challenge perfectly off the guaranteed steady gallop. The extended trip plays directly into her hands against these shorter-distance specialists.

Lady PhoebeAngelardoStar Of JupiterNymphaea

Tactical Speed Wins

15% probability

If Star Of Jupiter or Angelardo can position close enough to respond when the pace quickens.

Star Of Jupiter's headgear combination suggests he'll be more settled, allowing jockey Hope Regan to track the pace before unleashing his finishing kick. The steady early gallop neutralizes his pulling tendencies while setting up his preferred sprint finish.

Star Of JupiterAngelardoLady PhoebeNymphaea

Maiden Breakthrough

10% probability

If Nymphaea or Edwardtheninth finally converts recent promise into victory.

The cheekpieces have transformed Nymphaea into a consistent performer, and the longer trip could unlock further improvement. Her trainer Jennie Candlish has a solid recent strike-rate and knows how to place her charges.

NymphaeaEdwardtheninthStar Of JupiterAngelardo

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Stitching Wheel gets a soft uncontested lead - could prove hard to reel in despite poor recent form.

WATCH

Monitor Star Of Jupiter's settling - new headgear could backfire if he still pulls hard in the early stages.

NOTE

Check Nymphaea's stamina reserves in the final furlong - this represents a significant step up in trip.

WATCH

Lady Phoebe has disappointed at Newcastle before over shorter trips - needs to prove the longer distance suits.

NOTE

Watch the pace through the middle stages - if it stays very steady, the closers will have maximum advantage.

3:00 — Total Performance Data - 10 Years At Newcastle Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m4½f · Standard · NOV · 7 runners

Maneater to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

La Tosca led; the map had Maneater in front.

Littlecote won at 1.83 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Maneater

Prominent · 1

La Tosca

Midfield · 3

Hello FriendDanseuseThe Lakes

Hold Up · 2

LittlecoteTicker Tape

Maneater is the only confirmed front runner and will be allowed an uncontested lead from the gates. With no other natural pace angles in this small field, she'll dictate terms through comfortable fractions while La Tosca sits prominently behind her. The hold-up horses Littlecote, Ticker Tape, and The Lakes will settle at the back, while the two unknowns Danseuse and Hello Friend represent wildcards in terms of positioning. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours the front runner and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will emerge in the straight.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Maneater Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Maneater jumps cleanly and establishes an uncontested lead

She'll dictate comfortable fractions and prove hard to peg back, while La Tosca can track her into prime striking position. The hold-up horses will face traffic issues and too much ground to make up.

ManeaterLa ToscaLittlecoteTicker Tape

Newcomers Spring Surprise

30% probability

If either Danseuse or Hello Friend shows natural early speed and challenges the pace

This would force a stronger gallop that could set up the race for late closers with more tactical speed. The Crisford and Burke newcomers have the breeding to be competitive first time.

Hello FriendDanseuseLittlecoteTicker Tape

Late Kick Prevails

15% probability

If the pace becomes truly crawling and the field stays bunched turning for home

Littlecote's recent consistency and Ticker Tape's Gosden training could tell in a sprint finish. However, they'll still need significant luck in running from their hold-up styles.

LittlecoteTicker TapeDanseuseHello Friend

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If Maneater goes too fast early or the newcomers force genuine speed throughout

The race becomes a stamina test where The Lakes' longer trip experience might finally pay dividends. This requires multiple pace angles to emerge unexpectedly.

The LakesTicker TapeManeaterLa Tosca

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Maneater's jumping - if she misses the break badly, the entire pace complexion changes

WATCH

La Tosca's starting - her historical slow starts could leave her too far back if repeated

NOTE

Hello Friend's early positioning - Burke's tactical instructions will reveal her immediate ability

WATCH

Traffic issues in straight - with only seven runners, any hold-up horse needs a clear passage

NOTE

Danseuse's market move - any late support suggests Crisford confidence in debut performance

3:30 — Sunday Lunch At The Border Minstrel Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Standard · CLS4 · 7 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

4:00 — In Loving Memory Of Yvonne Rush Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

5f · Standard · NOV · 9 runners

Zain Primus likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Project Wallace led; the map had Zain Primus in front.

Zain Primus won at 2.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Zain Primus

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

Project WallaceRoy LaneQilaApril DiamondThe Cyprus Pearl

Hold Up · 3

Forest PhoenixGold DiggerSpaceman

Zain Primus will set the early fractions from a prominent position with no other confirmed pace-setters in this field. The majority of the field are hold-up horses including Gold Digger, Spaceman, The Cyprus Pearl, Qila, April Diamond and Forest Phoenix, meaning they'll be content to settle behind the pace. This should create an uncontested lead for Zain Primus through steady fractions, with the hold-up brigade needing to produce sustained kicks from off the pace. The race shape strongly favours prominent racers and front-runners who can capitalize on the soft early pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Dominance

45% probability

If Zain Primus gets loose on the lead without early pressure

The pace becomes unsustainably slow for the hold-up horses to peg back, allowing the front-runner to dictate terms throughout. Zain Primus can use his recent Kempton win as a springboard while Project Wallace could benefit from tracking the leader if showing early pace.

Zain PrimusProject WallaceGold DiggerSpaceman

Class Rising Late

30% probability

If Gold Digger and Spaceman produce their best form from off the pace

The higher-rated hold-up horses overcome the tactical disadvantage through superior ability, with Gold Digger's Group 3 Albany Stakes experience and Spaceman's solid debut form coming to the fore. Both have shown they can quicken when produced late.

Gold DiggerSpacemanProject WallaceZain Primus

Unknown Quantity Strikes

15% probability

If Project Wallace or Roy Lane show unexpected early pace or tactical speed

The lightly-raced pair surprise with improved performance, either by pressing Zain Primus early or producing late acceleration. Project Wallace's pedigree suggests ability while Roy Lane could benefit from recent gelding operation.

Project WallaceRoy LaneZain PrimusGold Digger

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If the slow pace results in a bunched finish with multiple challengers

The lack of early speed creates a messy sprint finish where any horse can win, potentially favouring those with previous course experience. Zain Primus and Qila have both run at Newcastle before.

QilaApril DiamondThe Cyprus PearlForest Phoenix

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Zain Primus getting an uncontested lead could make him very hard to peg back in this tactical setup.

WATCH

Gold Digger's jumping and early positioning will be crucial given her hold-up style and long absence.

WATCH

Project Wallace's debut performance and early positioning could reveal significant untapped ability.

NOTE

The pace through the first two furlongs will determine if the hold-up horses have any realistic chance.

NOTE

Roy Lane's behavior early on after previous issues with pulling hard and hanging left.

4:35 — Book Say When Ladies Day Tickets Handicap

5f · Standard · HCAP · 12 runners

Brave Traveller to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Moretons led; the map had Brave Traveller in front.

Houndhill won at 4.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

4 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Brave Traveller

Prominent · 5

HoundhillGolden HavanaWith GloryRyefieldOasis Cover

Midfield · 4

MoretonsMystical LandGillali LassOur Hero Matty

Hold Up · 2

Zoustar DreamsEverydaysasaturday

Brave Traveller will lead unchallenged early with moderate fractions on this stiff 5f track. The real battle develops behind as Houndhill, Mystical Land, Oasis Cover, Golden Havana and Our Hero Matty all want prominent positions, creating significant traffic problems from 2f out. This congestion will compromise several runners' finishing kicks and favour those who can secure clean runs. The tactical advantage goes to hold-up horses like Zoustar Dreams and Everydaysasaturday who can avoid the early scramble and exploit tired leaders.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses profit

45% probability

If the prominent pack gets tangled up in traffic 2f out

The early congestion allows patient horses to sweep past tired pace-setters with clean runs. Zoustar Dreams and Everydaysasaturday benefit most from this tactical chaos.

Zoustar DreamsEverydaysasaturdayBrave TravellerMystical Land

Golden pace battle

30% probability

If Golden Havana and Mystical Land press Brave Traveller early

The increased tempo stretches the field and favours horses with proven course form over this trip. Golden Havana's recent C&D win becomes crucial as stamina tells.

Golden HavanaMystical LandHoundhillOasis Cover

Leader holds on

15% probability

If Brave Traveller gets soft fractions and kicks clear 2f out

The uncontested lead allows sustainable pace and the gelded front-runner maintains his advantage to the line. Traffic behind helps his cause as challengers get stuck.

Brave TravellerOasis CoverGolden HavanaZoustar Dreams

Outsider breakthrough

10% probability

If the headgear change sparks Everydaysasaturday into finally breaking smartly

The first-time blinkers work and he avoids his usual slow starts to get competitive positioning. His hold-up style then profits from the expected pace collapse.

EverydaysasaturdayMoretonsRyefieldGillali Lass

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Everydaysasaturday must break cleanly in first-time blinkers after missing the kick twice

WATCH

Golden Havana and Mystical Land could press Brave Traveller early and create strong pace

NOTE

Zoustar Dreams needs the traffic problems to develop to get his clean late run

WATCH

Ryefield returning from 193 days could be ready to strike fresh but may fade late

NOTE

Houndhill's tendency to hang left on turf may not transfer to this AW surface

5:05 — Book Northumberland Plate Day Tickets Fillies' Handicap

6f · Standard · HCAP · 9 runners

Lead contested: Blue Nguru v MaldeviousHISTORIC

How it ran

Blue Nguru led, as the map showed.

Fizzy Cristal won at 12.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.

1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Blue NguruMaldevious

Prominent · 2

Tashi DelekToo Much

Midfield · 2

Annie Edson TaylorPerfect Price

Hold Up · 3

Hen PartyConcertFizzy Cristal

Blue Nguru and Maldevious will contest the early lead in this 9-runner fillies' handicap, with Blue Nguru likely to be more prominent given her recent willingness to race up with the pace. The presence of two confirmed front-runners should create an honest gallop from the start, preventing any dawdling early fractions. Too Much and Tashi Delek will likely sit just behind the leaders in prominent positions, while the hold-up horses (Hen Party, Fizzy Cristal, Concert, Annie Edson Taylor, Perfect Price) will need the pace to be strong enough to set up their finishing kicks. This race shape clearly favors the prominent racers and those with tactical speed who can position close to the pace without getting embroiled in the early battle.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front runners collapse late

45% probability

If Blue Nguru and Maldevious go too fast early and tie each other up

The strong pace will perfectly set up the hold-up horses who can unleash finishing kicks in the final furlong. Annie Edson Taylor and Hen Party are best positioned to capitalize with their proven ability to close strongly.

Annie Edson TaylorHen PartyFizzy CristalConcert

Tactical pace battle

30% probability

If the early pace is more measured with prominent horses tracking sensibly

Too Much can use her versatility to sit handy and outkick the leaders, while Tashi Delek's front-running tendencies could see her steal a march. The moderate pace won't stretch the field enough for pure hold-up horses to be effective.

Too MuchTashi DelekBlue NguruMaldevious

Blue Nguru dominates throughout

15% probability

If Blue Nguru settles better than expected and controls the tempo

She can dictate terms from the front and kick clear when it matters, with Maldevious the main danger if staying in touch. The even pace would suit those able to track the winner without getting too far back.

Blue NguruMaldeviousToo MuchAnnie Edson Taylor

Surprise from the back

10% probability

If the pace completely collapses and becomes a sprint finish

Concert or Perfect Price could benefit from the tactical speed their trainers are known for developing. The slow pace would make it a dash from the final bend, suiting horses with a sharp turn of foot.

ConcertPerfect PriceHen PartyFizzy Cristal

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Blue Nguru's stalls behavior after rearing badly last time could determine the pace scenario

WATCH

Tashi Delek's pulling tendencies with headgear changes could disrupt her tactical positioning

WATCH

Perfect Price's first-time headgear application may indicate stable expecting significant improvement

NOTE

Too Much's tendency to miss the break could leave her too much ground to make up in small field

NOTE

Annie Edson Taylor carrying top weight but proven course performers often overcome the burden here

5:35 — Newcastle Tapeta Enabling Champions Since 2016 Handicap

7f · Standard · HCAP · 13 runners

Lead contested: Lord Capulet v Blazing SonHISTORIC

How it ran

Lord Capulet and Yaajooz led, as the map showed.

King's School won at 6.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Lord CapuletBlazing Son

Prominent · 4

YaajoozRed MirageCriminal ShoreCusack

Midfield · 3

PalmarianTicktybooJkr Cobbler

Hold Up · 4

The Green ManKing's SchoolAtmosphereRich Rhythm

Lord Capulet and Blazing Son will contest the early lead, with Lord Capulet the more reliable front-runner having won five times this year including four over course and distance. Both are confirmed pace-setters but Blazing Son has stalls issues that could hand Lord Capulet an uncontested lead. The honest gallop they'll set should create a genuine test over 7f on the all-weather, with the race likely decided by who handles the sustained pace best. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and hold-up horses who can finish, as the early pace battle will soften up the leaders for those tracking behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Lord Capulet breaks cleanly and Blazing Son misses the start

Lord Capulet gets an easy lead and controls the fractions, making his class and course form decisive. The front-runner's proven stamina over this trip becomes the winning factor.

Lord CapuletRed MirageThe Green ManCriminal Shore

Pace Collapse Benefits Closers

30% probability

If both Lord Capulet and Blazing Son engage in a sustained speed duel from the gates

The early pace becomes unsustainable and they tie up in the final furlong, allowing the hold-up horses to sweep past. King's School and The Green Man's finishing kicks prove decisive.

King's SchoolThe Green ManAtmosphereJkr Cobbler

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If the pace is honest but not suicidal, creating the perfect scenario for stalkers

The prominent runners get the ideal trip tracking the pace without being drawn into it early. Red Mirage and Criminal Shore can utilize their tactical speed to strike at the right moment.

Criminal ShoreYaajoozRed MirageKing's School

Pace Outsider Surprise

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely and the handicapper gets it wrong

A well-handicapped outsider from the back gets a perfect tow into the race and benefits from the generous fractions. Jkr Cobbler's light weight and course form could prove decisive.

Jkr CobblerRich RhythmPalmarianCusack

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lord Capulet must break cleanly as any slow start hands the initiative to Blazing Son and changes the entire pace dynamic

WATCH

Blazing Son has shown stalls issues that could eliminate him as a pace factor before the race properly begins

NOTE

The Green Man's finishing kick will be crucial if the pace is genuine, as his course form suggests he can strike from off the speed

WATCH

Rich Rhythm's tendency to fluff starts could cost him any chance of getting competitive positioning in a race where pace matters

NOTE

Criminal Shore wearing a visor suggests connections expect improvement, and his prominent style suits if the pace is contested early

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 19 May 2026.

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