Archive›Newcastle (AW) · 2 June 2026

Newcastle (AW)

2 June 2026 · 6 races

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6:15 — Living North Magazines Classified Stakes

1m2f · Standard · DEFAULT · 13 runners

Lawmans Blis likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Millbuie led; the map had Lawmans Blis in front.

Gemini Man won at 6.00 — was held up, as the map had it.

6 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lawmans Blis

Prominent · 2

Wheres The CrumpetPrince Hector

Midfield · 6

Top Flight CenturyProject KinsmanHeartenedBroadstoneMillbuieCarida

Hold Up · 4

YakhabarGemini ManCome On JohnBaldosa

Lawmans Blis will take the field along from the front with Prince Hector and Wheres The Crumpet sitting prominent behind him. With only one confirmed pace-setter over this 1m2f trip, the gallop will be steady and sustainable rather than punishing. The lack of early pressure means Lawmans Blis can dictate terms, setting up a tactical finish where positioning becomes crucial. This moderate pace scenario strongly favours hold-up horses who can use their finishing kick, as the lack of early burn-up will leave plenty in reserve for the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Steady Pace Finish

60% probability

If Lawmans Blis leads uncontested and the pace stays moderate throughout

The lack of early pressure allows hold-up horses to conserve energy and unleash their finishing speed. Heartened and Yakhabar benefit most from being able to pick off tiring leaders in the final furlong.

HeartenedYakhabarGemini ManProject Kinsman

Lawmans Blis Wire Job

25% probability

If the pace stays slow and no serious challengers emerge until too late

Lawmans Blis exploits the lack of pressure to kick clear turning for home before the closers can respond. His recent Catterick win showed he can quicken off a steady pace when getting first run on his rivals.

Lawmans BlisPrince HectorWheres The CrumpetCome On John

Mid-Race Injection

10% probability

If Prince Hector or Wheres The Crumpet apply pressure from the 6f pole

The increased tempo stretches the field and finds out the stamina reserves over this extended trip. Horses with proven staying power benefit while those dependent on a finishing kick struggle to close the gap.

YakhabarCome On JohnHeartenedGemini Man

Messy Tactical Affair

5% probability

If multiple horses converge on the leaders simultaneously in the straight

The bunched field creates traffic problems and the winner emerges from a scramble rather than tactical positioning. Project Kinsman's fade-in-finish tendency becomes crucial as others get stopped in their run.

Project KinsmanBaldosaMillbuieCarida

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Project Kinsman's tendency to fade in the finish could prove decisive if the pace is steady and she's still in contention entering the final furlong

WATCH

Top Flight Century's 301-day absence creates major fitness concerns despite his hurdles win over winter for this yard

WATCH

Lawmans Blis must handle the surface switch from Catterick's good ground to Newcastle's standard all-weather track

NOTE

Yakhabar's wind surgery appears to have unlocked improvement based on his Southwell win and subsequent third place

NOTE

The 8-day gap since Redcar's 1m2f handicap gives Prince Hector, Heartened and Carida potential fitness edge over rivals

6:45 — Living North Christmas Fair Handicap

1m4½f · Standard · HCAP · 11 runners

Drumcondra to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Arch Legend led; the map had Drumcondra in front.

Rubellite won at 5.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Drumcondra

Prominent · 2

Roger HenryArch Legend

Midfield · 5

HavachocSpeechmanJedhi KnightDesert QuestApache Eagle

Hold Up · 3

RubelliteNed BroyMr Withington

Drumcondra is the only confirmed front runner in this field, meaning he can dictate terms without pressure through the early stages of this 1m4½f contest. With Roger Henry and Arch Legend sitting prominent behind, but most of the field preferring to come from off the pace, Drumcondra can set a comfortable rhythm that may not stretch the field sufficiently. The lack of early pace pressure creates a tactical scenario where the leaders can conserve energy for a sustained finish. This race shape clearly favours hold-up horses who can produce their best work late, as they'll get the slow early gallop they need to unleash their finishing kicks.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Slow Pace Suits Closers

55% probability

If Drumcondra sets an uncontested lead with no early pressure from the prominent runners.

The moderate gallop allows hold-up horses to conserve energy and produce telling late runs in the final 2-3 furlongs. Rubellite and Havachoc, both proven closers with strong finishing kicks, can exploit the tactical advantage this creates.

RubelliteHavachocApache EagleDesert Quest

Leaders Steal March

25% probability

If Drumcondra and Roger Henry maintain a genuine gallop that stretches the hold-up horses.

The sustained pace prevents the back markers from making up ground, allowing those racing closer to the pace to maintain their advantage. Roger Henry's prominent style suits this tactical scenario better than the pure hold-up merchants.

Roger HenryDrumcondraArch LegendNed Broy

Mid-Division Move Wins

12% probability

If the pace becomes stop-start, creating a bunched finish where positioning matters most.

A scrappy tactical affair allows horses with tactical speed to find the gaps that matter most in the final furlong. Ned Broy showed this ability when closing strongly at Hamilton, while Desert Quest has course winning form.

Ned BroyDesert QuestJedhi KnightApache Eagle

Maiden Breakthrough

8% probability

If the exposed handicappers fail to fire and an improving type capitalizes on the weak pace.

The tactical race setup allows a lightly-raced horse to show hidden ability in these calmer conditions. Drumcondra gets his preferred front-running scenario while Apache Eagle has been consistent in defeat recently.

DrumcondraApache EagleMr WithingtonArch Legend

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Drumcondra setting too slow a pace early - if the first half-mile is pedestrian, expect a cavalry charge from the closers

WATCH

Apache Eagle's stalls behavior after Arch Legend previously refused to enter - any loading issues could disrupt the start

NOTE

Rubellite and Havachoc both holding back too far given their proven finishing kicks - they need to be within striking distance

WATCH

Desert Quest's jumping ability at the start given his 22-day break and need for sharp beginning from this draw

NOTE

Roger Henry's fitness levels after 43-day break for new trainer Quinlan who has been finding form recently

7:15 — Penny Bakery Handicap

5f · Standard · HCAP · 6 runners

Dontwaste A Moment to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Dontwaste A Moment led, as the map showed.

Dontwaste A Moment won at 6.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Dontwaste A Moment

Prominent · 2

Star NoirGolden Havana

Midfield · 2

Master HarryMystical Land

Hold Up · 1

Pivotal Terms

Dontwaste A Moment will be the clear pace-setter from stall rise with no other confirmed front-runners in this field. Star Noir, Mystical Land, Golden Havana and Master Harry will all settle prominently behind the leader, creating a bunched group tracking the pace. The sustainable early gallop will set up a sprint finish from the 2f pole as the prominent runners fan out. This tactical setup strongly favours the prominent racers who can track the leader and kick for home, rather than hold-up horses who will struggle to make up ground in a small field sprint.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

65% probability

If the pace remains honest and sustainable throughout

The prominent quartet get first run on Dontwaste A Moment turning for home and their superior tactical position proves decisive. Golden Havana and Star Noir are perfectly placed to strike in the final furlong.

Golden HavanaStar NoirMystical LandMaster Harry

Leader Holds On

20% probability

If Dontwaste A Moment kicks clear turning for home and the pace has been modest

The front-runner gets first run and the prominent horses struggle to reel him in up the short Newcastle straight. His fitness edge from recent running helps him sustain the effort to the line.

Dontwaste A MomentPivotal TermsGolden HavanaStar Noir

Late Closer Strikes

10% probability

If the pace becomes truly crawling and turns into a dash

Pivotal Terms gets the perfect setup from his hold-up style as the field comes back to him in the final 1f. Master Harry also benefits from the sprint finish despite his long absence.

Pivotal TermsMaster HarryDontwaste A MomentGolden Havana

Pace Collapses Early

5% probability

If Dontwaste A Moment stops quickly and the prominent horses bunch up

The race becomes a messy affair with interference possible as horses change positions mid-race. The most experienced campaigners Golden Havana and Star Noir best navigate the chaos.

Star NoirGolden HavanaPivotal TermsMystical Land

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Dontwaste A Moment could set too strong a pace early and compromise his finishing kick in his first try at 5f

WATCH

Master Harry's 179-day layoff creates uncertainty about his current fitness levels despite the gear change

NOTE

Golden Havana's visor retention suggests connections are happy with his recent tactical approach

NOTE

Star Noir showed signs of pulling hard last time which could impact his settling in the early stages

WATCH

Pivotal Terms needs a strong pace to be effective but may struggle if the gallop remains modest throughout

7:45 — Penny On The Move Handicap

5f · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners

Desert Champion likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

A Lady Forever led; the map had Desert Champion in front.

Auntie Jo won at 3.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Desert Champion

Prominent · 2

Jeany MayA Lady Forever

Midfield · 4

Bishop's GloryPosh MaisieHyrcanianBarney's Bay

Hold Up · 3

Let's Go HugoWhat What WhatAuntie Jo

Desert Champion looks the sole committed early leader in this 5f sprint, with Jeany May and A Lady Forever likely to press close behind from prominent positions. The pace should be sustainable rather than frantic, as Desert Champion won't face immediate pressure in the opening two furlongs, allowing him to dictate terms. This moderate early gallop will set up a tactical sprint finish where horses with turn of foot can close effectively. The race shape strongly favours hold-up performers who can quicken late, as the pace-setters may lack the sustained speed to hold off closers in the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

45% probability

If Desert Champion sets uncontested fractions and the pace becomes pedestrian early

The lack of early pace will allow closers to position perfectly and unleash superior finishing kicks. Horses like Bishop's Glory and What What What can time their runs to perfection when the race becomes a sprint from the 2f pole.

Bishop's GloryWhat What WhatAuntie JoBarney's Bay

Front Runners Hold On

30% probability

If Desert Champion maintains a strong gallop and Jeany May applies early pressure

The sustained pace will stretch the field and favor those who can travel strongly throughout. Desert Champion's recent Chelmsford win shows he can sustain his effort, while prominent runners may benefit from the honest pace.

Desert ChampionJeany MayA Lady ForeverAuntie Jo

Mid-Race Tactical Battle

15% probability

If multiple horses contest the early lead creating messy positioning

The disrupted early pace will create gaps and traffic problems, favoring adaptable horses with tactical speed. Runners who can switch off mid-race then quicken when gaps appear will have the advantage.

Auntie JoBishop's GloryWhat What WhatA Lady Forever

Pace Collapse Sprint

10% probability

If Desert Champion goes too slow early allowing the field to bunch completely

The race becomes a pure sprint finish from the 2f marker with positioning crucial. Only horses with genuine turn of foot from the rear will be effective in this scenario.

What What WhatBishop's GloryHyrcanianPosh Maisie

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Desert Champion may get uncontested lead but his fading tendency could see him weaken markedly in final furlong

WATCH

Bishop's Glory returning from 124-day layoff - watch market confidence and how sharp he appears in preliminaries

WATCH

Multiple horses wearing headgear changes including Jeany May's visor - early positioning will reveal effectiveness

NOTE

Track conditions staying standard throughout card - no advantage emerging for particular running styles

NOTE

Several 7-day turnarounds including Auntie Jo and Hyrcanian - stamina reserves may be tested late

8:15 — Penny Car Washes Handicap

1m · Standard · HCAP · 12 runners

Sunriseontheboyne to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Criminal Shore won at 9.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently.

8 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Sunriseontheboyne

Prominent · 5

Alessia FernandaBarry's BoyCriminal ShoreCusackBellasio

Midfield · 2

Second FiddleChuzzlewit

Hold Up · 4

Flying FletcherQuiet ResolveAmerican StateMilitary Leader

Sunriseontheboyne is the sole confirmed front runner but faces pressure from five prominent racers: Criminal Shore, Alessia Fernanda, Cusack, Barry's Boy, and Bellasio. This creates a congested early pace with multiple horses wanting the same tactical position just behind the leader. The pace will be honest rather than blazing, but the prominent congestion will create traffic problems and force some wide into the straight. This setup strongly favours the hold-up horses who can avoid the early scrimmaging and exploit the pace collapse when the prominent pack ties up.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the prominent pack gets tangled up fighting for position behind Sunriseontheboyne

The pace becomes stop-start through the middle stages as five horses jostle for the same real estate, then quickens suddenly. The patient hold-up brigade sweep past tired legs in the final two furlongs.

Military LeaderFlying FletcherQuiet ResolveAmerican State

Prominent Racer Survives

25% probability

If one prominent horse finds clear water while the others struggle

Barry's Boy or Alessia Fernanda position perfectly to avoid the worst traffic while still getting first run on the weakening leader. They maintain momentum while their prominent rivals get shuffled back.

Barry's BoyAlessia FernandaCriminal ShoreBellasio

Front Runner Holds On

12% probability

If Sunriseontheboyne gets an uncontested lead while the prominent pack neutralizes each other

The leader builds an unassailable advantage while his chasers mark each other out of contention through mid-race positioning battles. He stays clear of the late swooners.

SunriseontheboyneBarry's BoyMilitary LeaderCusack

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If the early pace is crawling and becomes a tactical affair throughout

Nobody wants to commit early, creating a messy sprint finish where barriers and luck determine the outcome. The best turn of foot wins regardless of typical running style.

Flying FletcherMilitary LeaderQuiet ResolveBarry's Boy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Cusack and Barry's Boy clash for the same prominent position, causing interference and ruining both chances

WATCH

Flying Fletcher's slow start habit combined with Ethan Tindall's inexperience creates a poor position early

WATCH

Traffic problems at the two-furlong pole when five prominent horses converge simultaneously

NOTE

Sunriseontheboyne's early pace-setting - if he goes too fast he'll set it up perfectly for the closers

NOTE

Military Leader's position turning in - if he's too far back his strong finish may come too late

8:45 — Penny Hotels Handicap

1m · Standard · HCAP · 14 runners

First Encounter likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Trais Fluors led; the map had First Encounter in front.

Dinah Myte won at 41.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

4 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

First Encounter

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 9

BarleybrownBantzTrais FluorsVolentiLittle TedCable BeachBillyjoegoldDinah MyteAbu Royal

Hold Up · 4

Rocket RodPenny MountainMercurius PowerWicklow Way

First Encounter is the sole confirmed front-runner and will likely get an uncontested lead, setting a comfortable tempo with his prominent style. With 13 hold-up horses behind him, there's no early pace pressure, allowing First Encounter to dictate terms through moderate fractions. The lack of early speed means the field will be bunched turning for home, creating a cavalry charge finish where positioning and a clear run become crucial. This race shape strongly favours early positioned horses who can avoid the traffic problems that will inevitably occur when 13 hold-up horses all try to make their moves simultaneously.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Holds

45% probability

If First Encounter gets soft fractions and kicks clear turning for home

The lack of early pace allows him to save energy for a sustained finish while the field struggles with traffic behind. His recent wins at similar trips prove he can capitalize on tactical advantages.

First EncounterCable BeachPenny MountainMercurius Power

Late Traffic Chaos

30% probability

If the bunched field creates severe interference in the home straight

Multiple hold-up horses get blocked and only those with clear runs can challenge effectively. The leaders escape the carnage while most of the field never gets a proper chance to race.

Penny MountainTrais FluorsWicklow WayVolenti

Pace Collapse Finish

15% probability

If First Encounter stops quickly after weak fractions and the field closes rapidly

The slow tempo suits stamina horses who can grind out the finish when the leader weakens. Patient rides on proven stayers become the winning move.

BarleybrownLittle TedMercurius PowerCable Beach

Shock Early Pace

10% probability

If multiple hold-up horses break their usual pattern and race prominently early

The unexpected pace battle compromises several runners and allows genuine closers to pick up the pieces. Tactical discipline becomes more valuable than early position.

VolentiWicklow WayAbu RoyalDinah Myte

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

First Encounter could steal this if he gets uncontested fractions with 13 hold-up horses providing no early pace pressure

WATCH

Traffic problems will be severe in the home straight when multiple hold-up horses make simultaneous moves from the rear

WATCH

Cable Beach returning after 133 days off but showed good form when beating Little Ted over 7f here previously

NOTE

Penny Mountain has strong C&D form with a win and place here this year, could benefit from tactical positioning

NOTE

Mercurius Power drops to his lowest mark since last winning but needs significant luck in running from typical hold-up position

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 2 June 2026.

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