Archive›Newcastle (AW) · 3 April 2026

Newcastle (AW)

3 April 2026 · 7 races

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1:15 — BetMGM Burradon Stakes (Listed Race)

1m · Good · LST · 7 runners

Lead contested: New Monarch v BillecartFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Timeforshowcasing led; the map had New Monarch and Billecart in front.

Timeforshowcasing won at 26.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

New MonarchBillecart

Prominent · 3

AndabTimeforshowcasingJel Pepper

Midfield · 1

Alarming

Hold Up · 1

Padraig Dawn

Billecart and New Monarch are both confirmed front runners who will engage from flag-fall, creating an honest gallop over this stiff Newcastle mile. With only seven runners, the pace won't be extreme but will be solid enough to stretch the field, particularly as both leaders have the class to sustain their efforts. The prominent runners (Andab, Jel Pepper, Alarming, Timeforshowcasing) will track the leaders closely in this small field, while only Padraig Dawn represents the hold-up contingent. This setup moderately favours prominent runners who can track the pace and strike in the final two furlongs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Pounce

45% probability

If the two leaders set steady fractions without killing each other off early

The prominent trackers get first run on the leaders entering the straight, with class horses like Andab and the returning Jel Pepper able to exploit their superior ratings. Fresh legs prevail over the pace-setters in the final furlong.

AndabJel PepperTimeforshowcasingAlarming

Front Runner Survives

30% probability

If one of Billecart or New Monarch gets an uncontested lead or breaks clear

The leader gets breathing space mid-race before the field closes, allowing them to kick again when challenged and hold on grimly. New Monarch's recent win or Billecart's higher RPR becomes decisive.

New MonarchBillecartAndabAlarming

Late Charge Prevails

15% probability

If the early pace is genuinely strong with both leaders going hard

The pace collapses in the final quarter-mile as the leaders tie up, allowing Padraig Dawn to sweep past tired horses with his hold-up style. The lone closer benefits from the pace scenario perfectly suiting his running style.

Padraig DawnAlarmingTimeforshowcasingAndab

Longshot Breakthrough

10% probability

If the market principles underperform due to fitness or pace positioning

A returning horse like Timeforshowcasing or Jel Pepper produces a career-best effort after their break, or Alarming's weight allowance proves decisive. The unusual circumstances create an upset result.

TimeforshowcasingJel PepperAlarmingPadraig Dawn

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

New Monarch and Billecart could engage in a pace duel that sets up the race for closers despite the small field

WATCH

Jel Pepper and Timeforshowcasing both return from long breaks exceeding 180 days, fitness could be compromised despite their class

NOTE

Andab carries top weight of 133lbs but has the highest RPR rating and Joseph O'Brien has been among the winners recently

WATCH

Padraig Dawn is the only confirmed hold-up horse so needs the pace to be strong enough to bring tired horses back to him

NOTE

The going report shows consistent standard times across all distances, suggesting fair racing conditions with no bias

1:50 — BetMGM All-Weather 3 Year Old Championships Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

One And Gone led; the map had Silent Strike and Sparksmith and Northern Empire in front.

Al Najashi won at 4.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Silent StrikeSparksmithNorthern Empire

Prominent · 6

Monarch's GoldJungle RulerThree Non BlondesSaffron DandyEternal SolaceOne And Gone

Midfield · 1

Justmyluck

Hold Up · 4

Ten Carat HarryRogue SupremacyAl NajashiCotai Lights

Silent Strike, Sparksmith, and Northern Empire will ensure a genuine gallop from the off, with six others (Monarch's Gold, Jungle Ruler, One And Gone, Eternal Solace, Three Non Blondes, Saffron Dandy) wanting prominent positions creating early congestion. The strong early pace will string the field out by halfway, with the front rank likely to weaken from 2f out as stamina tells at this trip. The genuine gallop and inevitable pace collapse sets up perfectly for the hold-up horses to sweep through late. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — Ten Carat Harry, Cotai Lights, Rogue Supremacy and Al Najashi can sit off the early burn and pick up the pieces.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If the pace is as strong as expected and the leaders tire from 2f out

The hold-up brigade get the perfect setup with plenty of pace to aim at and a collapsing field ahead of them. Ten Carat Harry's brilliant 6f form and Al Najashi's four-timer both suit this tactical scenario perfectly.

Ten Carat HarryAl NajashiCotai LightsRogue Supremacy

Prominent Horse Survives

20% probability

If one of the prominent racers can avoid the early scrimmaging and get a smooth run

Jungle Ruler or Three Non Blondes could get the right trip just behind the pace setters and have enough left to hold off the closers. Their class and recent form suggests they can handle a tactical battle.

Jungle RulerThree Non BlondesMonarch's GoldEternal Solace

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If the early pace is so strong that even the prominent horses are compromised

The entire field comes back to the hold-up horses in the final furlong creating a blanket finish. Cotai Lights' recent proximity to form and Rogue Supremacy's Hollie Doyle booking could prove decisive in a cavalry charge.

Cotai LightsRogue SupremacyOne And GoneJustmyluck

Front Runner Steals It

5% probability

If Silent Strike or Sparksmith can avoid the early battle and get an uncontested lead

A tactical front runner could steal a march if the pace settles more than expected and they're not pressed early. Silent Strike's Oisin Murphy booking suggests connections expect him to be competitive from the front.

Silent StrikeSparksmithNorthern EmpireSaffron Dandy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Silent Strike, Sparksmith and Northern Empire will clash early for the lead creating a fierce gallop that could set up the race for hold-up horses

WATCH

Monarch's Gold, Jungle Ruler, Eternal Solace and Three Non Blondes all want prominent positions creating potential traffic problems at the 3f pole

NOTE

Ten Carat Harry returning after 34 days with excellent 6f form could be perfectly placed if getting the expected strong pace to aim at

WATCH

Al Najashi on a four-timer seeking to continue his winning streak with tactical hold-up style suiting this competitive pace scenario

NOTE

Hollie Doyle choosing Rogue Supremacy over other options suggests the stable expects a bold show despite recent disappointing form

2:25 — BetMGM Fillies' And Mares' Championships Handicap

7f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Shallow to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Carolina Jetstream led; the map had Shallow in front.

Stateira won at 2.38 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Shallow

Prominent · 4

Carolina JetstreamParis BabeCallianassaIndigo Dream

Midfield · 3

Brazilian RosePowderingZiggy's Queen

Hold Up · 3

StateiraFouetteBridget's View

Shallow is the only confirmed front runner and will set an uncontested lead through honest fractions without pressure. Carolina Jetstream, Callianassa, Paris Babe and Indigo Dream will sit prominent but none are keen pace-pressers, allowing Shallow to dictate comfortable sectionals. The majority are hold-up horses (Stateira, Powdering, Fouette, Bridget's View, Ziggy's Queen, Brazilian Rose) who will be tracking in behind, creating a bunched field turning for home. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — the pace will be steady and sustainable, setting up a sprint finish where the closers can unleash their turn of foot.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

65% probability

If Shallow sets modest fractions without early pressure from the prominent group

The pace becomes too slow for the early positioned horses to sustain their kick, while the hold-up brigade get perfect conditions to deliver late runs. Stateira and Ziggy's Queen can unleash superior finishing speed from ideal positions.

StateiraZiggy's QueenPowderingBrazilian Rose

Prominent runners prevail

20% probability

If the prominent quartet apply more pressure than expected, creating genuine pace

Carolina Jetstream and Paris Babe benefit from sitting closer to stronger gallop, getting first run on the closers who face a stiffer task. Their tactical positioning proves decisive in a more truly-run affair.

Carolina JetstreamParis BabeCallianassaIndigo Dream

Shallow stays prominent

10% probability

If the lack of pace pressure allows Shallow to maintain her lead deep into the straight

Her light weight and uncontested lead give her enough rope to hold off late challengers who leave their runs too late. The 7f trip suits her front-running style perfectly on the flat Newcastle track.

ShallowCarolina JetstreamParis BabeCallianassa

Form horses clash

5% probability

If the highest-rated performers on recent form (Carolina Jetstream, Stateira) both hit peak form simultaneously

The race becomes a straight battle between the in-form prominent runner and the class hold-up act, with both overcoming their contrasting tactical styles. Superior ability trumps race shape considerations.

Carolina JetstreamStateiraZiggy's QueenParis Babe

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Monitor if Carolina Jetstream and Paris Babe apply early pressure to Shallow as this could create the genuine pace needed for prominent runners

WATCH

Watch for Stateira's fitness after 77-day break and whether she gets the strong pace required for her hold-up style to be effective

NOTE

Observe Bridget's View and Ziggy's Queen's response to first-time headgear as both are tactical hold-up horses who could improve significantly

NOTE

Check if Shallow can maintain her lead turning for home or if the lack of early pace pressure works against her stamina reserves

WATCH

Note whether the prominent quartet of Carolina Jetstream, Paris Babe, Callianassa and Indigo Dream bunch up and compromise each other's runs

3:00 — BetMGM All-Weather Championships Mile Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

Flight Plan to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Flight Plan led, as the map showed.

Tyrrhenian Sea won at 8.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

7 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Flight Plan

Prominent · 5

ChancellorBlue RcStorm StarThe Lost KingFirst Principle

Midfield · 4

NikovoDosmanShafdarRogue Encore

Hold Up · 4

Tyrrhenian SeaWitch HunterPopmasterApiarist

Flight Plan is the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate proceedings from the outset, likely setting a steady, sustainable gallop without pressure from early rivals. The majority of this field are hold-up merchants (Apiarist, Nikovo, Witch Hunter, Tyrrhenian Sea, Popmaster, Rogue Encore, Dosman, Shafdar) with only a handful willing to race prominently (Chancellor, Storm Star, Blue Rc, First Principle, The Lost King). This creates a tactical setup where Flight Plan can control the tempo before the back markers launch their challenges in the final two furlongs. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — the genuine pace will stretch the field and create opportunities for closers to pick off the leaders.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Flight Plan sets a true gallop and the prominent racers get involved early

The sustained pace will string out the field and allow the quality closers to time their runs perfectly in the final furlong. Horses like Witch Hunter and Tyrrhenian Sea can unleash their finishing kicks when it matters most.

Witch HunterTyrrhenian SeaApiaristPopmaster

Prominent Racers Strike

20% probability

If Chancellor and Blue Rc press Flight Plan early and create a strong tempo

The early pressure forces Flight Plan to go faster than ideal, setting up the race for horses that can track the pace and kick clear before the hold-up horses arrive. Chancellor's Gosden form and Blue Rc's consistency make them prime beneficiaries.

ChancellorBlue RcFirst PrincipleThe Lost King

Slow Pace Suits Leaders

10% probability

If Flight Plan gets an easy time in front with minimal early pressure

A sedate tempo allows Flight Plan to save energy for a sustained kick, while any prominent racer who moves early can steal a march on the hold-up horses. The lack of pace negates the closers' advantage.

Flight PlanStorm StarChancellorThe Lost King

Tactical Battle Unfolds

5% probability

If multiple jockeys make early moves to prevent Flight Plan getting away with murder

The race becomes a tactical affair with several horses vying for position, creating a stop-start gallop that suits versatile performers. Experienced jockeys like Jamie Spencer can navigate the chaos best.

Witch HunterChancellorBlue RcFirst Principle

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Flight Plan must be monitored closely early - if he gets an uncontested lead, he could prove very hard to peg back

WATCH

Chancellor carries first-time cheekpieces for the in-form Gosden team - any market move would be significant

NOTE

Witch Hunter's early positioning will be crucial with Jamie Spencer aboard - needs to be handy enough to strike

WATCH

Multiple horses returning from breaks (Tyrrhenian Sea 55 days, Storm Star 55 days, Blue Rc 92 days) may need the run

NOTE

The Balding stable runs two (Storm Star, The Lost King) suggesting confidence in at least one of their representatives

3:35 — Midnite All-Weather Sprint Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

Valiant Force likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Pocklington and Valiant Force led, as the map showed.

Wiltshire won at 8.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

1 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Valiant Force

Prominent · 5

PocklingtonEl BodonSarab StarBerkshire WhisperLakers

Midfield · 4

So Darn HotWiltshireFivethousandtooneCity House

Hold Up · 4

Sir Les PattersonMarshmanHeathcliffFerrous

Valiant Force is the sole confirmed pace-setter and will get an uncontested lead, setting a controlled tempo from the front. With most of the field comprising hold-up horses (Ferrous, Marshman, Heathcliff, Fivethousandtoone) and only a handful of prominent runners (Pocklington, Sarab Star, El Bodon), there's little early pressure. The pace will be steady rather than fierce, allowing the field to stay bunched into the straight. This setup strongly favours prominent runners and those with tactical pace — they can track the lone leader and have first run when the sprint begins.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Valiant Force gets soft fractions and kicks clear turning in

The lone pace-setter controls the tempo completely and has enough left to resist late challenges. Hold-up horses are caught flat-footed by the lack of genuine pace and can't reel in the winner.

Valiant ForceSir Les PattersonPocklingtonEl Bodon

Prominent Trackers Strike

30% probability

If the pace is moderate and prominent runners get first run

Pocklington and Sarab Star sit close to Valiant Force and have the tactical advantage when the sprint develops. They avoid the traffic problems that befall the hold-up brigade.

PocklingtonSarab StarEl BodonLakers

Hold-Up Horse Rally

15% probability

If the pace quickens unexpectedly or Valiant Force stops

The sustained gallop suits the closers who have been patiently waited with. Ferrous and Marshman emerge from the pack to collar the leaders in the final furlong.

FerrousMarshmanHeathcliffFivethousandtoone

Chaos Sprint Finish

10% probability

If the field remains tightly bunched to the final furlong

The lack of early pace creates a cavalry charge finish where luck in running decides the outcome. Any horse with a clear run and finishing kick can prevail.

LakersEl BodonCity HouseSo Darn Hot

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Valiant Force's ability to sustain his gallop as the only pace-setter with new blinkers first time

WATCH

Whether Pocklington and other prominent runners press Valiant Force early or sit and wait

NOTE

How quickly the hold-up horses can get into contention if the pace becomes dawdling

WATCH

Traffic problems developing in the straight with so many hold-up horses needing room

NOTE

First-time headgear on Wiltshire (tongue-tie), Fivethousandtoone (cheekpieces) and City House (tongue-tie)

4:10 — Midnite All-Weather Easter Classic Middle Distance Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Antrim led, as the map showed.

The Glen Rovers won at 34.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

4 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

GaucherAntrimMidnight Lion

Prominent · 3

King's CodeNolton CrossZryan

Midfield · 4

Duke's CommandBragborParlandoThe Glen Rovers

Hold Up · 4

ParadiasTeumessias FoxRegal UlixesBrasil Power

Gaucher, Antrim, and Midnight Lion will ensure a genuinely strong gallop from the outset in this 1m2f handicap. With three confirmed front-runners committed to making the running, the early pace will be honest and sustained, stretching the field and testing stamina reserves over the extended trip. The strong gallop will create a searching test that should bring the best out of horses with proven stamina and tactical speed. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — the pace is genuine and those tracking the leaders will have every opportunity to mount late challenges.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses flourish

55% probability

If the three front-runners maintain a strong gallop throughout

The honest pace will suit closers who can quicken off the strong tempo, with stamina-proven handicappers having ideal conditions to unleash finishing kicks. Late runners with proven class like Teumessias Fox and Paradias can capitalize on the pace collapse.

Teumessias FoxParadiasBrasil PowerDuke's Command

Front-runner gets away

25% probability

If one of the pace-setters establishes a decisive advantage while the others falter

Gaucher's superior class could see him dictate terms if Antrim and Midnight Lion don't maintain pressure, allowing the Willie Mullins runner to control the race. His recent winning form and proven stamina make him dangerous if allowed an easy lead.

GaucherParlandoNolton CrossKing's Code

Prominent tracker prevails

15% probability

If the early pace is strong but one horse positioned handily can respond

A horse like Nolton Cross or King's Code, sitting prominent but not committed to the early pace battle, could benefit from perfect positioning. They can track the speed while avoiding the early burn-up, then strike when the leaders weaken.

Nolton CrossKing's CodeRegal UlixesZryan

Pace collapses completely

5% probability

If all three front-runners go too hard early and surrender late

An unlikely scenario where the pace is unsustainable and all three leaders capitulate, allowing a mid-division runner to pick up the pieces. This would require tactical errors from experienced connections.

Brasil PowerDuke's CommandThe Glen RoversBragbor

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Gaucher could dictate if the other two front-runners don't maintain pressure, allowing him to control fractions

WATCH

Brasil Power running again after just six days suggests George Boughey thinks he's primed for a big effort

NOTE

First-time headgear on Antrim and King's Code could sharpen their focus in this competitive handicap

WATCH

Teumessias Fox returning after 62 days but Andrew Balding's strike-rate suggests yard has horses ready

NOTE

Three front-runners ensuring genuine pace means hold-up horses should get perfect racing conditions

4:42 — Midnite All-Weather Easter Plate Marathon Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Sax Appeal to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Prydwen and Barenboim led; the map had Sax Appeal in front.

Berkshire Sundance won at 17.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Sax Appeal

Prominent · 3

PrydwenBerkshire SundanceTryfan

Midfield · 4

Charging ThunderTribal StarArtisan DancerBarenboim

Hold Up · 4

Duke Of OxfordBeylerbeyiEnemyDramatic Star

Sax Appeal is the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate a steady, sustainable gallop over this marathon trip without early pressure. Tryfan, Prydwen, and Berkshire Sundance may track prominently but lack the pace to challenge early, allowing Sax Appeal to control the tempo. The majority of the field are hold-up horses who will be content to settle at the back, creating a bunched field turning for home before a sprint finish develops. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — the uncontested pace will be modest and the field will arrive together, suiting horses with a finishing kick.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Sax Appeal sets a moderate pace and the field arrives bunched for a sprint finish

The lack of early pace allows closers to conserve energy and unleash finishing kicks. Duke Of Oxford, Enemy, and Artisan Dancer all have strong recent form and will relish the tactical nature.

Duke Of OxfordEnemyArtisan DancerDramatic Star

Front Runner Steals It

20% probability

If Sax Appeal gets easy fractions and stays on strongly in the straight

The uncontested lead allows Sax Appeal to build momentum and hold off late challengers. His recent good form and first-time blinkers suggest improvement.

Sax AppealTryfanBerkshire SundanceBeylerbeyi

Prominent Tracker Prevails

10% probability

If one of the prominent runners positions perfectly and kicks at the right time

Tryfan or Berkshire Sundance could sit handy and time their run to perfection. Both have tactical speed and strong recent form to capitalize.

Berkshire SundanceTryfanBeylerbeyiCharging Thunder

Pace Collapse Chaos

5% probability

If the early pace is crawling and multiple horses make their moves simultaneously

The race becomes a messy sprint where anything can happen and outsiders can capitalise. Form becomes less relevant in a slowly-run lottery finish.

BarenboimTribal StarPrydwenCharging Thunder

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sax Appeal could steal this if allowed to dictate fractions uncontested - watch for how quickly the prominent runners let him go

WATCH

Duke Of Oxford with first-time tongue-tie and strong recent form could be hard to peg back if getting the right tactical race

NOTE

Berkshire Sundance returning after 62 days but Oisin Murphy wouldn't take the ride without stable confidence in his fitness

WATCH

Enemy and Beylerbeyi both have first-time tongue-ties from Ian Williams who is in good form - stable making positive changes

NOTE

Watch the early pace - if Sax Appeal goes too slow the race becomes a lottery sprint where outsiders can capitalise

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 3 April 2026.

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