Archive›Newmarket · 16 May 2026

Newmarket

16 May 2026 · 7 races

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1:42 — Daily Profit Boosts At BetMGM Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Twisting Physics likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Jimmy Speaking and Canvas led; the map had Twisting Physics in front.

Sterling Knight won at 7.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Twisting Physics

Prominent · 3

Jimmy SpeakingIndian SpiritCanvas

Midfield · 4

Mr BalooFinal NightPhone TagGorgeous Mr George

Hold Up · 4

Sterling KnightHelm RockKnights GoldWhere's Freddy

Twisting Physics is the sole confirmed front-runner and will be allowed to dictate terms from the rail, setting a comfortable rhythm without early pressure. The prominent runners Indian Spirit and Jimmy Speaking will track just behind, while the field is heavily weighted toward hold-up horses including Sterling Knight, Helm Rock, and Final Night. With such a strong bias toward back-runners on a flat Newmarket mile, the pace will likely be steady early before quickening from the 3f pole. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce late kicks, as they'll have the tactical advantage of cover and a target to aim at.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

65% probability

If Twisting Physics sets modest fractions and the field bunches up approaching the home turn

The race becomes a sprint finish where horses with cover can unleash finishing kicks. Late-running horses like Sterling Knight, Helm Rock, and Final Night benefit from the tactical setup and superior finishing speed.

Sterling KnightHelm RockFinal NightWhere's Freddy

Prominent tracker strikes

20% probability

If Indian Spirit or Jimmy Speaking can position perfectly behind Twisting Physics and kick at the optimal moment

These horses get first run on the leaders while avoiding the traffic that often engulfs hold-up horses. Their prominent position allows them to capitalize before the back-markers can organize their challenges.

Indian SpiritJimmy SpeakingTwisting PhysicsCanvas

Front-runner steals it

10% probability

If Twisting Physics gets very soft fractions and maintains enough energy for the finish

With no early pressure, he can control the race completely and have enough left to resist late challenges. The lack of early pace-pressure becomes his advantage rather than allowing closers to pounce.

Twisting PhysicsCanvasIndian SpiritJimmy Speaking

Pace collapses completely

5% probability

If the early pace is so slow that it becomes a crawling tactical affair until very late

The race turns into a pure sprint from the 2f pole where any horse can win regardless of position. Class and current form become more important than running style or tactical position.

Knights GoldMr BalooGorgeous Mr GeorgePhone Tag

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Twisting Physics could steal this if allowed uncontested lead - watch for any early challengers putting pressure on

WATCH

Indian Spirit and Canvas both returning from 200+ day breaks - monitor market support as indication of readiness

NOTE

Sterling Knight and Final Night both ran well over C&D two weeks ago - track work and appearance will show fitness levels

WATCH

Jimmy Spencer on Twisting Physics is master tactician - watch for any early positional moves that could disrupt pace scenario

NOTE

Several runners carry headgear changes or retained equipment - monitor Mr Baloo's cheekpieces and Where's Freddy's tongue-tie for behavioral cues

2:15 — Darley EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Good · NOV · 7 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

2:50 — Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap

7f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Bobby Bennu likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Goldmoyne led; the map had Bobby Bennu in front.

Superposition won at 21.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bobby Bennu

Prominent · 4

GoldmoyneI Still Have FaithGolden RedemptionSon

Midfield · 4

Arctic DawnSuperpositionShahForty Years On

Hold Up · 4

Dark TornadoDarknessAngel HunterSilver Ghost

Bobby Bennu leads with Son, I Still Have Faith and Goldmoyne providing prominent early company, creating a moderate pace that won't stress the field early. The large hold-up contingent including Forty Years On, Shah, Darkness, Silver Ghost, Angel Hunter and Arctic Dawn will sit off this pace and come with late runs. With multiple front runners sharing the work and plenty of closers lurking, the race sets up for a sprint finish where those with tactical speed and good positioning will prevail. This pace scenario strongly favours prominent runners who can sit just behind the leaders and kick clear before the hold-up horses can organize their challenges.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Prevail

45% probability

If the moderate early pace allows prominent horses to stay in touch without being pressured

Bobby Bennu and Son can utilize their forward positions to strike before the hold-up brigade gets organized. The pace won't be strong enough to stop these handy horses from having enough left for the finish.

Bobby BennuSonGoldmoyneGolden Redemption

Hold-Up Horse Surge

30% probability

If the early leaders go too fast or the pace collapses completely in the final two furlongs

Forty Years On and Shah can time their runs perfectly as the field comes back to them late. Their class and finishing kick will tell in a bunched finish where positioning from the back proves optimal.

Forty Years OnShahDarknessSilver Ghost

Returning Winner Returns

15% probability

If Arctic Dawn's long absence doesn't blunt his effectiveness and he gets a perfect trip from the back

His Newcastle win showed he has the class to compete at this level despite the 7lb rise. The strong pace up front will set up perfectly for his finishing kick if he's retained his old ability.

Arctic DawnAngel HunterDark TornadoSuperposition

Pace Collapses Early

10% probability

If Bobby Bennu doesn't want the lead and the early pace becomes crawling slow

The race becomes a pure sprint from the three-furlong pole where those with the most natural speed will triumph. This tactical scenario could suit any horse with a quick turn of foot regardless of normal running style.

Silver GhostGolden RedemptionI Still Have FaithGoldmoyne

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bobby Bennu must be monitored early - if he doesn't take up the running naturally, the pace could collapse completely

WATCH

Watch Forty Years On's position turning for home as Jamie Spencer often leaves his moves very late and needs racing room

NOTE

Arctic Dawn's market support will indicate connections' confidence after his long absence and wind surgery

WATCH

Son's jumping from the stalls is crucial as he needs to be handy early to utilize his prominent running style effectively

NOTE

Dark Tornado's first-time headgear and new trainer combination after wind surgery makes him a complete unknown quantity

3:27 — Download The BetMGM App Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Sixtygeesbaby likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Rebel Path led; the map had Sixtygeesbaby in front.

Expert Agent won at 5.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Sixtygeesbaby

Prominent · 3

MiraculousPressure's OnDashing Dick

Midfield · 4

TabbyRebel PathIzzy FastState Of Madness

Hold Up · 3

RajakingExpert AgentArantes Nascimento

Sixtygeesbaby, Miraculous, Rebel Path, Tabby, Pressure's On and Dashing Dick all show prominent tendencies, creating a likely even gallop rather than fierce early pace. With multiple horses wanting to be handy, the pace should be solid but sustainable over this 6f trip at Newmarket. The even tempo will set up perfectly for horses with tactical speed who can position close enough to strike, while the strong pace won't be punishing enough to stop late runners completely. This race shape favours prominent runners and those with tactical pace who can sit close to a solid tempo.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

45% probability

If the even pace plays out as expected with multiple front runners creating honest tempo

The solid gallop will suit those tracking the pace who can quicken off it, with the leaders potentially staying on strongly. Horses like Expert Agent and State Of Madness who can sit closer will have ideal positioning to strike.

Expert AgentMiraculousState Of MadnessTabby

Hold Up Challenge

30% probability

If the prominent runners go faster than ideal early and compromise each other

The stronger pace will set things up perfectly for the hold-up horses to close late down Newmarket's long straight. Arantes Nascimento and Izzy Fast could time their runs to perfection.

Arantes NascimentoIzzy FastExpert AgentRajaking

Front Runner Gets Away

15% probability

If Sixtygeesbaby or another leader gets an uncontested lead and the pace becomes slow

The lack of early pressure allows the leader to dictate and potentially stay on strongly to the line. Sixtygeesbaby's style suits getting first run on his rivals.

SixtygeesbabyDashing DickPressure's OnRebel Path

Tactical Speed Prevails

10% probability

If the pace becomes messy with horses fighting for position early

The tactical complications will favour horses with natural speed who can adapt their position and still have a turn of foot. Pressure's On dropping back to 6f could benefit from this chaos.

Pressure's OnTabbyMiraculousExpert Agent

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Arantes Nascimento has never won on turf in 10 attempts despite strong AW form

WATCH

Tabby makes turf debut after 7 AW starts and unknown how he'll handle the surface change

NOTE

Sixtygeesbaby could get uncontested lead if other prominent runners settle behind him

WATCH

Pressure's On rarely runs over 6f and this shorter trip is largely unproven for him

NOTE

Expert Agent's recent Kempton AW win and Windsor second show he's hitting form at the right time

4:02 — Darley EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m4f · Good · NOV · 6 runners

Shabab Al Ahli likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Chasing Time and Shabab Al Ahli led, as the map showed.

Chasing Time won at 23.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Shabab Al Ahli

Prominent · 1

Chasing Time

Midfield · 2

GrilseKoala Rose

Hold Up · 2

Superior ChoiceTurty Tree

Shabab Al Ahli will set a measured tempo from the front with no other confirmed pace-setters in this small field. Chasing Time may try to track closely given his prominent style, but the likely uncontested lead means a sustainable gallop through the middle sections. The hold-up quartet of Superior Choice, Koala Rose, Grilse, and Turty Tree will settle behind and rely on finishing kicks. This moderate pace strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can dictate terms without pressure.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Shabab Al Ahli Controls

45% probability

If Shabab Al Ahli gets an easy lead and maintains rhythm without pressure from Chasing Time

The pace becomes too comfortable for the hold-up horses to make up ground, allowing the pace-setter to kick clear in the straight. Front-running tactics prove decisive over this staying trip.

Shabab Al AhliChasing TimeTurty TreeSuperior Choice

Hold-Up Finish Strong

30% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely slow and bunches the field for a sprint finish

Superior Choice and Turty Tree get their preferred scenario with plenty of horse left for a sustained drive. The class edge of Superior Choice or proven form of Turty Tree tells late.

Superior ChoiceTurty TreeShabab Al AhliChasing Time

Chasing Time Pounces

15% probability

If Chasing Time travels strongly and puts pressure on Shabab Al Ahli turning for home

The Charlie Appleby runner finds more improvement from his debut win and kicks past his stable companion. His prominent style gets first run on the closers.

Chasing TimeShabab Al AhliSuperior ChoiceTurty Tree

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If both Shabab Al Ahli and Chasing Time go too slow early and fade badly in the straight

The race becomes a pure stamina test where Superior Choice's class or an improved Koala Rose taking advantage of the weight allowance can surge through. Tactical speed beats early position.

Superior ChoiceKoala RoseGrilseTurty Tree

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Superior Choice's participation status as marked non-runner could reshape entire pace dynamic

WATCH

Shabab Al Ahli's jumping and early positioning from the stalls will determine if he gets his preferred uncontested lead

NOTE

Chasing Time's early positioning relative to stable companion Shabab Al Ahli may reveal Appleby's preferred tactical plan

WATCH

Koala Rose's fitness after 147-day absence and ability to handle male company for the first time

NOTE

Turty Tree's finishing effort given his consistent third-place form suggests he's knocking on the door

4:37 — BetMGM Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

The Joker led; the map had Sharp Romance and Battosai and Folk Pageant in front.

Folk Pageant won at 26.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Sharp RomanceBattosaiFolk Pageant

Prominent · 3

EddaariThe JokerRoyal Poetry

Midfield · 1

Alpine Culture

Hold Up · 1

Guest House

Sharp Romance, Battosai, and Folk Pageant will ensure a strong gallop from the start, with all three natural front-runners likely to dispute the early lead over this stamina-testing 1m2f trip. The sustained pace will stretch the field and test stamina reserves in the final two furlongs. With only Guest House racing from behind, the prominent racers who can track the pace and have the class to kick clear will be best positioned. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners with proven stamina who can sit just off the pace and strike late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Favours Class

45% probability

If the three front-runners set a searching gallop from the start

The sustained pace will find out the weaker horses and set up the race for the classiest prominent runners to come through late. Eddaari and Royal Poetry have the ratings and tactical speed to capitalise.

EddaariRoyal PoetryThe JokerAlpine Culture

Front-Runner Survives Pressure

30% probability

If Sharp Romance or Folk Pageant can dictate terms and see off challenges

One of the pace-setters will have enough in reserve to hold on, particularly if they can steal a decisive advantage turning for home. Sharp Romance's recent Kempton win suggests he has the stamina to make all pay.

Sharp RomanceFolk PageantBattosaiRoyal Poetry

Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late

15% probability

If the pace collapses or becomes stop-start early

Guest House would benefit from a steadier gallop that brings his finishing kick into play over the final furlong. His recent Yarmouth win showed improved form but he needs the race to unfold in his favour.

Guest HouseRoyal PoetryEddaariThe Joker

Pace Backfires Completely

10% probability

If all three front-runners go too hard and tie up in the final furlong

The moderate pace-setters exhaust themselves in a speed battle, allowing a mid-division runner to pick up the pieces late. Alpine Culture's stamina-laden pedigree could help him stay on strongest.

Alpine CultureThe JokerGuest HouseRoyal Poetry

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sharp Romance could steal a decisive advantage if the other front-runners allow him an uncontested lead early

WATCH

The Joker's enthusiasm to get on with things may see him drawn into a pace battle that blunts his finish

NOTE

Guest House needs the three confirmed front-runners to set a genuine gallop to bring his staying power into play

WATCH

Battosai showed signs of greenness last time and may not handle the pressure of a competitive handicap

NOTE

Eddaari has the class edge but hasn't raced for 33 days and needs to be ready first time back

5:10 — Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM "Hands And Heels" Apprentice Handicap (Part Of Racing Excellence)

7f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Cherry Cobbler likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Regal Guest led; the map had Cherry Cobbler in front.

Cherry Cobbler won at 12.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Cherry Cobbler

Prominent · 2

Regal GuestDashing Donkey

Midfield · 3

Mickey MongooseAfrican SpiritFancy Dancer

Hold Up · 2

WrydcroftTex

Cherry Cobbler will likely lead from the start with Dashing Donkey, Mickey Mongoose and Regal Guest tracking prominently, but none of these pace-setters are in strong form or particularly keen. This creates a moderate tempo that won't be punishing early but may develop into a sustained gallop from the 3f pole. The large contingent of hold-up horses (Tex, Fancy Dancer, African Spirit, Wrydcroft) will be looking to exploit any pace collapse, but the tempo is unlikely to be strong enough to set up a dramatic late charge. This race shape favours prominent racers who can travel well and kick clear, as the pace won't be quick enough to guarantee a strong finish for the hold-up brigade.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Prevails

45% probability

If the pace stays moderate throughout and no strong late kick develops

The prominent runners get first run turning for home and the hold-up horses can't generate enough late momentum to catch them. Wrydcroft's progressive profile makes him the exception among the hold-up horses if he gets a clear run.

WrydcroftMickey MongooseDashing DonkeyTex

Late Surge Success

30% probability

If the early pace quickens more than expected and the leaders tire

The strong pace sets up perfectly for the closers, with Tex's consistency and Fancy Dancer's class telling in a driving finish. The prominent horses pay for their earlier exertions in the final furlong.

TexFancy DancerWrydcroftMickey Mongoose

Cherry Cobbler Wire Job

15% probability

If Cherry Cobbler gets an easy lead and the field leaves it too late to challenge

The leader gets away with soft fractions and has enough left to resist late challenges, capitalizing on the field's tactical naivety. His poor recent form becomes irrelevant if unopposed early.

Cherry CobblerDashing DonkeyMickey MongooseWrydcroft

Outsider Ambush

10% probability

If the market leaders underperform and the pace becomes messy with stop-start fractions

The race develops into a sprint finish where lightweight Mickey Mongoose's 124lbs becomes crucial, or African Spirit shows his old ability after the stable switch. Chaos favours the forgotten horses with less pressure.

Mickey MongooseAfrican SpiritRegal GuestFancy Dancer

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Cherry Cobbler could steal this if allowed an uncontested lead, despite poor recent form

WATCH

Watch for Wrydcroft getting a clear run in the straight as his progressive profile makes him dangerous from any position

WATCH

Tex's starting problems at Leicester could resurface under pressure - monitor his break from the stalls

NOTE

Mickey Mongoose's 124lbs could be decisive in a tight finish if he handles the turf better than recent efforts suggest

NOTE

African Spirit's 476-day absence and stable debut combination makes him highly unpredictable despite his low weight

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 16 May 2026.

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