Archive›Newmarket · 3 May 2026

Newmarket

3 May 2026 · 7 races

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1:45 — Oliver Brown Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies)

1m2f · Good · LST · 7 runners

4 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Jennifer Jane led, as the map showed.

Jennifer Jane won at 6.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

Jennifer JaneSacred GroundBrigid's WellLilt

Prominent · 2

EsnaMaldives

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

Spinning Lizzie

Sacred Ground, Lilt, Jennifer Jane and Brigid's Well are all confirmed front runners who will ensure a strong early gallop over this stamina-testing 1m2f trip. With four natural leaders in a seven-runner field, the pace will be genuinely run from the off, creating ideal conditions for closers. The sustained gallop will stretch the field and test stamina reserves in the final two furlongs. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and those with proven stamina at the distance.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Gallop Collapse

55% probability

If all four front runners go hard early and none can sustain the pace

The leaders will weaken markedly in the final furlong, allowing closers to pick up the pieces with late charges. Spinning Lizzie's hold-up style and recent Kempton win over 1m becomes a major tactical advantage.

Spinning LizzieEsnaMaldivesSacred Ground

Sacred Ground Dominates

25% probability

If Sacred Ground can dictate terms and see off her pace rivals

Her Oaks-winner pedigree and previous 1m victory gives her the stamina edge over the other leaders to sustain a strong gallop. The daughter of Anapurna can stretch clear when the others weaken.

Sacred GroundJennifer JaneBrigid's WellSpinning Lizzie

Messy Early Pace

12% probability

If the four front runners interfere with each other and create a stop-start gallop

The uneven tempo will suit the prominent racers who can adapt their position and kick when it matters. Esna and Maldives can position themselves perfectly behind the scrimmaging leaders.

EsnaMaldivesLiltSpinning Lizzie

Lilt Wire-to-Wire

8% probability

If Lilt can break clear early and avoid the pace battle behind

Her seven-furlong win on soft ground suggests she has the class to lead throughout if given an easy lead. The Haggas filly could steal a march while the others fight amongst themselves.

LiltSacred GroundJennifer JaneBrigid's Well

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sacred Ground could get an uncontested lead if the other three front runners are slow to engage early

WATCH

Jennifer Jane's long absence since last September makes her fitness a question mark despite her front-running ability

WATCH

Esna's preference for softer ground could see her struggle on today's good to firm surface conditions

NOTE

Brigid's Well sports first-time tongue tie which suggests breathing issues may have hampered previous efforts

NOTE

Spinning Lizzie's recent Kempton success gives her a fitness edge over several rivals returning from long breaks

2:20 — Betfred Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares)

1m1f · Good · G2 · 13 runners

Falakeyah to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Falakeyah led, as the map showed.

Jancis won at 19.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

6 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Falakeyah

Prominent · 3

Qilin QueenMiss JusticeAmerican Gal

Midfield · 5

Chantilly LaceCheshire DancerStateiraJancisArisaig

Hold Up · 4

CathedralSurvieSand GazelleFrancophone

Falakeyah is the sole confirmed front-runner in this field and should get an uncontested lead, setting a steady tempo without early pressure. American Gal, Miss Justice and Qilin Queen may track prominently but aren't natural pace-pressers, allowing Falakeyah to dictate fractions. The large field of hold-up horses including Cathedral, Survie, Cheshire Dancer and Sand Gazelle will need the pace to collapse or rely on traffic luck in the straight. This sustainable early pace strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable late traffic problems.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front End

45% probability

If Falakeyah gets clear early fractions without harassment from the prominent runners

The mare can dictate ideal fractions and prove hard to peg back, while the massed ranks of hold-up horses get in each other's way. Front-runners and those tracking close benefit from clean runs and controlled tempo.

FalakeyahAmerican GalMiss JusticeFrancophone

Late Traffic Chaos

30% probability

If the hold-up brigade encounters serious interference in the straight with 13 runners compacting

The pace collapses but only those with clear runs can capitalize, creating a lottery finish. Horses drawn well or getting first run have major advantages over equally talented but blocked rivals.

CathedralSand GazelleCheshire DancerSurvie

Prominent Press

15% probability

If American Gal or Miss Justice decide to pressure Falakeyah early and create genuine pace

The early tempo quickens significantly, setting up the race for the strongest finishers with stamina reserves. Hold-up horses with proven Group class get ideal conditions for their devastating kicks.

SurvieCathedralCheshire DancerJancis

Pace Duel Collapse

10% probability

If multiple horses challenge Falakeyah early creating a genuine speed battle

Frantic early fractions destroy the front-runners' chances completely, handing the race to patient hold-up horses. The strongest stamina types from the back benefit from the suicidal early pace.

Sand GazelleChantilly LaceArisaigStateira

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Falakeyah could get loose on the lead if prominent runners don't engage early, making her very hard to catch

WATCH

Traffic problems are almost guaranteed with 13 runners and 9 hold-up horses needing room simultaneously

NOTE

Cathedral and Survie both have Group 1 form but need everything to fall right from their hold-up styles

WATCH

Multiple runners returning from 200+ day layoffs including Sand Gazelle, Miss Justice, and Cheshire Dancer

NOTE

Stateira's all-weather form may not translate to turf over this longer distance on her first try

2:55 — Betfred Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)

1m6f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Kihavah likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Pole Star led; the map had Kihavah in front.

Goblet Of Fire won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kihavah

Prominent · 2

Align The StarsBahadur

Midfield · 5

Dramatic StarCharging ThunderPole StarArtisan DancerGoblet Of Fire

Hold Up · 4

SubsequentYashinMany MenBrasil Power

Kihavah is the sole confirmed front-runner in this field and will dictate a moderate early gallop without pressure, with Align The Stars and Bahadur sitting prominently but not challenging the lead early. The pace will build gradually through the middle stages as the large contingent of hold-up horses including Yashin, Subsequent, Pole Star, and Many Men begin to close from the rear. This measured tempo over 1m6f on good to firm ground creates a race where stamina and finishing kick matter more than early speed. The tactical setup strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce sustained late runs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

55% probability

If the pace remains steady through halfway allowing closers time to organise

The lack of early pressure lets Kihavah control fractions while quality hold-up horses like Yashin, Subsequent and Many Men get perfect trips tracking the pace. They unleash coordinated finishing kicks in the final 3f when front-runners tire.

YashinSubsequentMany MenPole Star

Prominent runners capitalise

25% probability

If Align The Stars or Bahadur apply more pressure to Kihavah through the middle stages

The increased tempo stretches the field and prevents the hold-up brigade from mounting their usual late challenge. Horses positioned prominently can kick clear while the closers are left with too much to do.

Align The StarsBahadurKihavahDramatic Star

Front-runner stays strong

12% probability

If Kihavah gets an uncontested lead and maintains stamina reserves for the finish

The 9-year-old veteran uses his experience to judge the fractions perfectly and has enough left to repel late challenges. His prominent style proves optimal when he can dictate without early harassment.

KihavahAlign The StarsBahadurMany Men

Pace collapses completely

8% probability

If no horse applies any pressure and the gallop becomes crawling throughout

The race becomes a pure sprint finish where horses with the highest cruising speed rather than stamina prevail. This tactical mess can produce surprise results from mid-division horses with pace.

Dramatic StarBrasil PowerArtisan DancerCharging Thunder

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Kihavah must be monitored early as the only natural leader - if he goes too fast or too slow it reshapes the entire race

WATCH

Watch Yashin for market support despite his 232-day layoff as class horses often return to form in big handicaps

NOTE

Subsequent's early movement will indicate connections' confidence after his long break since his last run was 233 days ago

WATCH

Charlie Johnston has three runners (Align The Stars, Pole Star, Artisan Dancer) so watch for tactical riding between them

NOTE

Several horses wearing first-time headgear including Pole Star's visor and Dramatic Star's cheekpieces could show improved focus

3:35 — Betfred 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies)

1m · Good · G1 · 19 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Venetian Lace and Inis Mor led, as the map showed.

True Love won at 6.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 19 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

The Prettiest StarMubasimahInis Mor

Prominent · 6

True LoveVenetian SunVenetian LaceRose GhaiyyathTimeforshowcasingTouleen

Midfield · 4

SilenciosaAbashiriTrue TestDarn Hot Gallop

Hold Up · 6

PreciseEvolutionistMy HighnessAzleetSpicy MargDomina Ignis

The Prettiest Star, Mubasimah, and Inis Mor will ensure a genuine gallop from the outset, with all three confirmed front-runners having speed and stamina to sustain pressure. This triumvirate will stretch the field early, creating a searching test that eliminates the weaker stayers and sets up a tactical finish from the 2f pole. The strong pace will play into the hands of hold-up performers who can produce late kicks, while prominent racers with tactical speed will also benefit from the solid foundation. This race shape clearly favours hold-up horses and strong finishers over those needing to race prominently early.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Collapses Late

45% probability

If the three front-runners go too hard and weaken markedly in the final 2f

The sustained gallop will find out the leaders' stamina limitations, allowing the classiest hold-up horses to sweep past with devastating late runs. Patient tactics and superior class will prove decisive as the early pace-setters fade dramatically.

PreciseMy HighnessEvolutionistAzleet

Tactical Battle Develops

30% probability

If the pace is strong but sustainable, creating a bunched finish from 2f out

The genuine gallop will bring the field together for a tactical sprint finish, favouring horses with both stamina and a sharp turn of foot. Those positioned prominently but not committed early will have the best of both worlds.

True LoveVenetian SunTouleenSpicy Marg

Front-Runner Dominates

15% probability

If one of the pace-setters gets first run and maintains momentum while rivals struggle to close

The leader will establish a decisive advantage as the chasing pack fails to respond quickly enough to the sustained gallop. Superior stamina and tactical positioning from the front will prove unbeatable.

The Prettiest StarMubasimahInis MorVenetian Lace

Messy Pace Compromises All

10% probability

If the front-runners interfere with each other early or the pace becomes stop-start

The lack of rhythm will disrupt normal running patterns, creating chaos that benefits horses with adaptable styles and experienced jockeys. The winner will come from an unexpected source as favourites struggle with the uneven tempo.

Darn Hot GallopTimeforshowcasingAbashiriDomina Ignis

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

The Prettiest Star and Mubasimah could go suicidally fast early as both are natural pace-setters with speed to burn

WATCH

Precise and Abashiri face significant fitness tests after breaks exceeding 200 days despite their obvious class

NOTE

True Love and Venetian Sun will be closely monitored for market confidence given their seasonal debuts

WATCH

Inis Mor's stamina for the mile trip remains questionable despite her breeding suggesting she should stay

NOTE

David Egan's tactics on headgear-wearing Domina Ignis will reveal connections' confidence levels

4:10 — Tattersalls £40,000 EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

5f · Good · NOV · 8 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

4:45 — Tattersalls Online £40,000 EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

5f · Good · NOV · 7 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

5:20 — HKJC World Pool Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Crockham Heath to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Evanesco led; the map had Crockham Heath in front.

Evanesco won at 5.50 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Crockham Heath

Prominent · 2

Study Of WordsSahara King

Midfield · 1

Evanesco

Hold Up · 1

Gatehouse

Crockham Heath will attempt to dictate from the front as the sole natural leader, with Sahara King, Study Of Words, and Evanesco likely to settle prominently behind. The small field means little pressure on Crockham Heath early, allowing him to control sectionals and potentially steal a march turning for home. With only Gatehouse likely to be held up, this sets up as a tactical affair where the front rank will dominate proceedings. This pace scenario strongly favours prominent racers and front runners who can capitalise on the uncontested early fractions.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Dominance

45% probability

If Crockham Heath gets soft fractions and kicks clear turning in

The lack of pace pressure allows him to save energy for a strong finish, while the prominent runners are caught flat-footed by his acceleration. This rewards the horse best positioned to control the tempo.

Crockham HeathStudy Of WordsSahara KingEvanesco

Prominent Tracker Victory

35% probability

If the prominent horses shadow Crockham Heath and pounce late

Study Of Words or Sahara King use their superior ratings to overhaul the leader in the final furlong when his lack of recent racing tells. The good ground suits their turn of foot.

Study Of WordsSahara KingEvanescoCrockham Heath

Hold Up Surprise

12% probability

If Gatehouse gets a strong pace to aim at from his hold-up style

The prominent runners go too hard trying to collar Crockham Heath, setting up perfectly for Gatehouse's closing kick. His AW form translates well to this tactical scenario.

GatehouseEvanescoStudy Of WordsSahara King

Pace Collapse Scramble

8% probability

If Crockham Heath goes too slow and everyone is still in contention at the furlong pole

The race becomes a sprint finish where class tells, favouring the highest-rated horses who can quicken best from the bunch. Superior ability overcomes tactical disadvantage.

Study Of WordsSahara KingEvanescoCrockham Heath

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Study Of Words showing any signs of rustiness early given his 193-day layoff which could compromise his finishing kick

WATCH

Crockham Heath being allowed to bowl along unchallenged through the first half-mile on the good ground

NOTE

Gatehouse's ability to settle properly on turf debut having only raced on artificial surfaces previously

WATCH

Evanesco bouncing back to his better 2yo form after that flat effort over course and distance last time

NOTE

The pace through the middle sections as the prominent horses may go steady behind Crockham Heath

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 3 May 2026.

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