Archive›Newmarket (July) · 14 August 2026

Newmarket (July)

14 August 2026 · 6 races

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5:18 — Zyn Frontrunner EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

7f · Good · NOV · 12 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

5:53 — Zyn Strong Stride EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

1m · Good · NOV · 3 runners

Date Line to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Date Line led, as the map showed.

Gilding The Lily won at 1.40 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Date Line

Prominent · 1

Gilding The Lily

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

Evening Call

Date Line is the sole confirmed front-runner in a three-horse field and will stride to the front unchallenged from the outset, setting a controlled, unhurried gallop over the Newmarket July mile on Good to Firm ground. Gilding The Lily is likely to track closely in a prominent position, meaning Date Line faces no genuine pressure to accelerate the tempo against her will. Evening Call, whose style is unknown but redistributed to the rear, will be held up at the back of this tiny field, making up the tail of a procession rather than exerting any forcing influence. This race shape — a lone, uncontested lead on a flat, galloping track with fast ground — strongly favours the front-runner and prominent types who can dictate their own rhythm, conserve energy through the race, and repel challengers in the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Date Line Controls Unchallenged

72% probability

If Date Line dictates a smooth, sustainable gallop and finds enough in the tank to repel challengers in the final furlong.

Date Line sets every fraction on her own terms on fast ground she handles well, building a rhythm that turns this into a test of stamina and composure over the mile trip; her two career runs at 7f on Good suggest the step up to a mile is the logical next move and she has the class to see it out.

Date LineGilding The LilyEvening Call

Prominent Closer Strikes Late

16% probability

If Date Line goes too hard too soon and Gilding The Lily, tracking closely, pounces in the final two furlongs.

A pace-strung small field can sometimes see the front-runner overdo it slightly, leaving Gilding The Lily perfectly poised to swoop as Date Line ties up; Gosden's filly brings the benefit of a recent outing 14 days ago, keeping her sharp and ready to capitalise on any front-runner weakness.

Gilding The LilyEvening CallDate Line

Evening Call Sweeps Through

8% probability

If the pace collapses in the final quarter-mile and Evening Call, tracking from the rear, finds clear daylight to finish powerfully.

With only three runners the hold-up position is barely a length off the pace, so Evening Call needs the first two to exhaust each other before producing her run; given her unknown style and lightly raced profile under Haggas, an ability to unleash a powerful late turn of foot cannot be dismissed entirely.

Evening CallGilding The LilyDate Line

Dead Rubber Blanket Finish

4% probability

If all three fillies arrive in a cluster turning for home and the race is settled by fine margins of finishing speed.

A tight, uninspiring gallop with no pressure could compress the field so thoroughly that class differentials are nullified and fractional advantages in the final 100 yards decide the outcome; any of the three could feature, but this scenario requires Date Line to sacrifice her natural front-running advantage by underperforming.

Gilding The LilyEvening CallDate Line

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Date Line returns from a 420-day absence — watch her paddock demeanour and early jumping, as any rustiness under Shepherd could undermine her expected front-running supremacy.

WATCH

Gilding The Lily is the only runner with meaningful recent form (14 days ago), and if she is able to sit a length off Date Line through the first six furlongs, she becomes a serious threat in the final two.

WATCH

Evening Call's unknown racing style is the biggest wildcard — if she breaks sharply and contests the early lead, it transforms an otherwise processional pace map into a genuinely pressured contest.

NOTE

The going for this race is confirmed Good to Firm at the July course, faster than the headline Good figure, which will magnify the advantage of a front-runner who can roll along at a fluent, economical tempo without burning reserves.

NOTE

With only three runners, positional tactics are almost irrelevant — watch instead for which filly shows superior cruising speed in the final quarter-mile, as that is likely to be the decisive factor in this small-field novice.

6:27 — Maritime Cargo Sts Freight Frenzy Handicap Stakes

1m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Triggerman to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sir Edward Lear led; the map had Triggerman in front.

The Sweet Escape won at 3.75 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Triggerman

Prominent · 3

Mr UbiquitousSir Edward LearThe Sweet Escape

Midfield · 2

Special GhaiyyathCurrumbin

Hold Up · 2

Rising ForceCalyxoh

Triggerman is the sole confirmed front-runner in this eight-runner mile handicap and, with no rival likely to press him hard from the gates, he should establish an uncontested lead and set a controlled, measured tempo on the Newmarket July course straight. The three prominent types — Sir Edward Lear, The Sweet Escape and Mr Ubiquitous — will settle just off the pace and are well placed to pounce if Triggerman's fractions are honest but not punishing. The field carries more hold-up horses than the race shape can naturally accommodate at the rear: Special Ghaiyyath and Currumbin are genuine closers but have been redistributed to midfield in the map, meaning Rising Force — the highest-rated of the hold-up horses — is the one true closer most likely to find clear ground late. A controlled, single-pace gallop set by an uncontested Triggerman strongly favours prominent racers who can travel sweetly just behind the leader and strike decisively in the final two furlongs, with the pace too honest to allow a strong late flourish from deep.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Raiders Dominate

62% probability

If Triggerman leads at an honest but unforced gallop and the prominent trio track him into the straight.

Triggerman sets a rhythmical tempo that suits horses sitting just off the pace, and Sir Edward Lear, The Sweet Escape or Mr Ubiquitous each have the tactical position to peel off his quarters and quicken clear; Good to Firm ground rewards that forward-placed, travelling style.

The Sweet EscapeMr UbiquitousSir Edward LearTriggerman

Front Runner Gallops Clear

18% probability

If Triggerman is allowed to dictate completely unchallenged and the prominent horses fail to close down his advantage rounding into the Dip.

An uncontested Triggerman can find a comfortable rhythm and conserve enough energy to sustain his effort through the final furlong on quick ground; none of the hold-up horses behind him has a clear enough run to bridge the gap in time.

TriggermanSir Edward LearThe Sweet EscapeMr Ubiquitous

Hold-Up Horse Late Surge

12% probability

If the pace collapses or the prominent runners fail to quicken, leaving a gap for a horse delivered late from midfield.

Rising Force, the highest-rated runner in the field, is best placed among the closers to pick up late on Good to Firm ground if there is a genuine tempo; Special Ghaiyyath and Currumbin are mapped out of their truest role and face an uphill task finding clear daylight from deep in a straight-course mile.

Rising ForceCalyxohSpecial GhaiyyathCurrumbin

Pace Collapse Bunched Finish

8% probability

If Triggerman goes too steady and the race turns into a sprint finish off a slow tempo with the field arriving in a heap.

A falsely run race compresses the entire field entering the final two furlongs, giving higher-rated horses like Rising Force and Mr Ubiquitous a chance to use raw ability rather than position; the lack of true pace punishes horses whose form depends on a searching gallop drawing the sting from rivals.

Mr UbiquitousRising ForceThe Sweet EscapeCalyxoh

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Triggerman's early gallop sets the entire tempo — watch whether Finlay Bassett (7) allows him to coast or is bustled along, because any increase in early fractions immediately shifts the advantage away from the front-runner and toward the prominent trio.

WATCH

The Sweet Escape's barrier draw and Laura Pearson's positioning in the opening furlong are critical — if she is shuffled back behind a wall of horses rather than tracking Triggerman's quarters directly, her recent winning momentum counts for less.

WATCH

Rising Force is the one genuine closer with the class to win, but Marco Ghiani must find daylight on a straight course with eight runners — watch the early stages to see whether he can slot onto the rail or is forced wide, which will determine whether his late effort is a threat or a near-miss.

NOTE

Special Ghaiyyath and Currumbin are both natural hold-up horses mapped into midfield due to congestion at the rear — if both attempt to drop back to their comfort zone from the gates, they risk being detached and effectively out of the race before the turn into the Dip.

NOTE

Mr Ubiquitous has strong course form over 7f at Newmarket and steps to 1m — watch whether he relaxes behind the pace in the early stages or pulls for his head, as his four-win recent strike-rate is built on getting a smooth first half to the race.

7:02 — Maritime Cargo Sts Container Storage Solutions Handicap Stakes

6f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Lead contested: Romantic Twilight v BeauzonHISTORIC

How it ran

Northcliff led; the map had Romantic Twilight and Beauzon in front.

Molly Mac won at 11.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Romantic TwilightBeauzon

Prominent · 4

Ziggy's CondorSpirit Of JennyCurraheeMolly Mac

Midfield · 2

BayraatEm Jay Kay

Hold Up · 4

MumayazFifty NiftyNorthcliffRebel Path

Romantic Twilight and Beauzon are the two confirmed front-runners, and both will want to lead from the outset on this straight Newmarket July course over six furlongs, creating a genuinely contested early gallop rather than any dawdle. With Beauzon's recent form showing a string of wins on soft/standard ground but only modest form on good-to-firm (2/15 in similar going), and Romantic Twilight also limited in similar-going records (8/10 but with late faders in those splits), their duel is likely to set an honest, pressured tempo from the off. This contested pace suits hold-up and late-finishing profiles who can sit off the speed, let the front pair burn each other out, and pick up through the final two furlongs. The field holds more hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear — Bayraat and Em Jay Kay are genuine closers forced into midfield slots on the map because the true hold-up berths are oversubscribed, meaning Fifty Nifty, Mumayaz, Northcliff and Rebel Path are the likely authentic hold-up runners on the day. The race shape strongly favours hold-up and midfield-to-late runners who can produce a sustained finish once the front pair have done their work.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Pair Burn Out

47% probability

If Romantic Twilight and Beauzon press each other hard from the gate, setting a strong contested gallop that empties both by the final furlong.

The honest pace drains both leaders in the final 150 yards, opening the door for genuine closers tracking behind them to storm through. Hold-up horses with proven good-to-firm form like Fifty Nifty and Northcliff are best placed to capitalise on the energy expenditure at the front.

Fifty NiftyNorthcliffMumayazRebel Path

Prominent Stalker Wins

26% probability

If one of the prominent-style runners settles just off the pace and pounces as the leaders fade in the final furlong.

Spirit Of Jenny or Ziggy's Condor could sit a length or two off the front, conserving enough energy to pick up when the front-runners tire. On good-to-firm ground at Newmarket, a smooth prominent run with a single change of gear is a well-worn winning formula at this track.

Spirit Of JennyZiggy's CondorMolly MacCurrahee

Leader Dictates Unchallenged

18% probability

If one front-runner (most likely Romantic Twilight) gains a clear early advantage and the other fails to match strides, allowing a solo controlled lead.

A lone leader who controls fractions on good-to-firm can produce a surprisingly resilient performance, particularly over this straight six furlongs where no bends break momentum. Romantic Twilight's one win came in this style and the track and conditions are compatible, though the presence of Beauzon makes a truly uncontested lead unlikely.

Romantic TwilightBeauzonSpirit Of JennyZiggy's Condor

Closers Fail To Land Blow

9% probability

If the pace proves only moderate despite two nominal leaders, with the field bunching and hold-up horses failing to generate the clear run and momentum they need.

True hold-up types like Bayraat and Em Jay Kay are already mapped out of their ideal position and are racing in a compromised role, reducing the probability of a deep late flourish working. In this scenario the race is won from a stalking position mid-pack rather than from the rear, and the honest closers are left with too much ground to make up through the straight.

Molly MacCurraheeSpirit Of JennyZiggy's Condor

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Beauzon and Romantic Twilight — watch the first furlong closely; if both are hard ridden immediately, the pace is genuinely strong and the hold-up runners (Fifty Nifty, Northcliff) move sharply upward in winning expectation.

WATCH

Bayraat and Em Jay Kay are true hold-up types mapped to midfield — if they get shuffled back to their natural position early in the race, they will have significantly more ground to make up than the pace map implies.

WATCH

Em Jay Kay has been off 31 days, the longest break in the field, with all recent form on artificial surfaces — watch for any market drift at the off as an indicator the ground is catching connections cold.

NOTE

Molly Mac — watch for Grace McEntee to position prominently early; a lightly-weighted three-year-old last seen winning at this trip and course configuration represents a plausible price-to-ability mismatch in the prominent-stalker scenario.

NOTE

Northcliff's visor fitting is worth monitoring in the paddock — headgear horses can either be sharper or more fractious, and a settled pre-race demeanour would be a positive signal for his hold-up chance if the front-runners set the expected strong gallop.

7:37 — Racing TV Handicap Stakes

1m · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Brocklesby Bill to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Zarathos led; the map had Brocklesby Bill in front.

Principality won at 8.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Brocklesby Bill

Prominent · 4

Storm StarHickoryTuscan HillsSterling Knight

Midfield · 2

CroupierMythical Guest

Hold Up · 3

God Of WarPrincipalityZarathos

Brocklesby Bill is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, should settle into a comfortable, uncontested rhythm on Good to Firm ground over Newmarket's straight mile — a surface and track configuration that historically rewards horses who can control tempo without burning energy. Behind him, Storm Star, Hickory, Tuscan Hills and Sterling Knight all want prominent positions, creating a four-way scramble for the two or three spots just off the pace between the two-furlong and three-furlong markers, where traffic and interference become a real threat. The hold-up brigade of God Of War, Zarathos and Principality will need that prominent congestion to unwind cleanly before they can deliver their finishing kicks from off the pace. This race shape — a single uncontested leader controlling a genuinely honest gallop ahead of a packed mid-division — clearly favours prominent racers who can travel just behind the pace and pounce before the hold-up horses get organised; the field contains more prominent types than can all find their natural slot, and of those chasing the early positions, Storm Star (recent 1m form) and Hickory (course winner, headgear) are best-placed to actually secure a berth, with Sterling Knight also capable of dictating his own fate from just off the pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Lead, Prominent Strike

62% probability

If Brocklesby Bill dictates an honest but uncontested pace and the prominent horses track him cleanly without burning out in early scrimmaging.

Brocklesby Bill sets a metronomic gallop, Hickory or Storm Star travel sweetly just behind and have enough in reserve to collar him inside the final furlong on fast ground.

HickoryStorm StarSterling KnightTuscan Hills

Pace Collapses, Hold-Up Swoops

18% probability

If Brocklesby Bill crawls and the prominent pack sits too close, compressing the race and leaving a wall of horses two out.

A slow early tempo bunches the field and sets up a sprint finish from the two-furlong pole, giving the hold-up horses a genuine gap to attack through late.

God Of WarZarathosPrincipalityCroupier

Prominent Scrimmage Blows Race Open

13% probability

If the four prominent types clash aggressively for position early, inflating the pace and stringing out the field.

Brocklesby Bill is pressured into a genuine gallop, the prominent horses who burned petrol fade in the final furlong, and a fresh-legged hold-up horse picks up the pieces.

ZarathosPrincipalityGod Of WarHickory

Pace Bias Delivers Lone Front-Runner

7% probability

If Good to Firm conditions and a clear early lead allow Brocklesby Bill to dictate every yard and the field fails to close.

Brocklesby Bill, unchallenged and relaxed, builds an insurmountable advantage entering the final two furlongs on quick ground that rewards front-runners who get a soft lead.

Brocklesby BillSterling KnightHickoryTuscan Hills

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Brocklesby Bill (Charlie Tucker, 7lb claimer) — if the apprentice lets him bowl along unchallenged from flag fall, he sets the entire race tempo and any drift in early fractions will scramble the tactics of all four prominent horses behind him.

KEY

Prominent scrimmage between Storm Star, Hickory, Tuscan Hills and Sterling Knight — four horses fighting for two or three spots two-to-three furlongs out is the single biggest source of traffic danger in this race and could compromise any or all of them.

WATCH

Croupier — mapped to midfield due to redistribution but a genuine prominent racer; if he pushes forward and gets into a pace-burning battle for position, he risks flattering his early sectionals and fading when it matters.

WATCH

Zarathos — has the form and going figures to be a serious factor but is entirely dependent on a clear run two out; the congested midfield increases the probability of him meeting trouble exactly when he needs to accelerate.

NOTE

God Of War — 100-day absence for Tom Clover is worth monitoring in the paddock and early sections; if rusty, he may not produce his typical hold-up finish, but if he travels with intent, the race pace created by the prominent cluster sets up perfectly for him.

8:10 — Racing Welfare Apprentice Handicap Stakes

2m · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Rogue Empire likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Free World led; the map had Rogue Empire in front.

The Craftymaster won at 6.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Rogue Empire

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

An Bradan FeasaMio AmicoLaravieFree WorldThe Craftymaster

Hold Up · 1

Tarbat Ness

Rogue Empire is the sole confirmed front-runner here, redistributed to the lead as the most likely pace-setter despite being a natural hold-up horse, which means this 2m contest will be run at a genuinely sustainable, measured tempo rather than a pressured gallop. With no natural frontrunner to push the pace, Rogue Empire is likely to bowl along at a comfortable clip on Good to Firm ground, setting up a race that will be decided by stamina and finishing quality rather than a test of early speed. The bulk of the field — An Bradan Feasa, Mio Amico, Laravie, Free World, and The Craftymaster — are all true hold-up types redistributed into midfield positions because this field holds far more hold-up and prominent horses than the map can accommodate at the rear; of these, Laravie (4 wins from 11 similar-going runs, strong recent form) and An Bradan Feasa (consistent placed form at this trip and going) are best placed to secure a tracking position. A steady, uncontested pace on Good to Firm ground over 2m strongly favours horses with proven stamina at this trip and the ability to produce a sustained late run, making the hold-up-to-midfield closers with strong similar-going records the primary beneficiaries of this race shape.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Rogue Empire Dictates Alone

62% probability

If Rogue Empire is allowed to bowl along unchallenged at a comfortable gallop and the hold-up pack fails to organise a coherent challenge.

Rogue Empire, racing out of its natural role but with two recent wins at 16f on good ground, could exploit a slow pace by controlling fractions and stealing enough of a lead that the hold-up pack runs out of track; this is the dominant shape because no genuine frontrunner exists to force a searching pace.

Rogue EmpireTarbat NessLaravieAn Bradan Feasa

Late Closers Swamp Leader

20% probability

If the pace is genuinely slow enough that hold-up types tracking in midfield (An Bradan Feasa, Laravie) build momentum in the final quarter-mile and the leader flattens out.

Laravie's consistent 2m form on good-to-firm ground and An Bradan Feasa's repeated placed efforts at this trip make them the most likely beneficiaries if the late rush materialises; the STYLE_FIT discount applies as these horses are racing closer than ideal, but their stamina profiles are genuine.

LaravieAn Bradan FeasaThe CraftymasterFree World

Tarbat Ness Stalks and Strikes

11% probability

If Tarbat Ness settles just off the pace in second or third and produces a sustained run from 3f out when Rogue Empire begins to tire.

Tarbat Ness has a win and three places from 15 similar-going runs and is one of the few runners not redistributed from a different role, giving it a natural mid-prominent position to exploit; if Rogue Empire fades in the final furlong, Tarbat Ness has the positional advantage to pick up the pieces.

Tarbat NessLaravieAn Bradan FeasaThe Craftymaster

Pace Collapse, Outsiders Land

7% probability

If the race unfolds in chaotic fashion — Rogue Empire stopping quickly and the hold-up pack suffering interference — and a lower-weighted runner at a big price catches the field napping.

The Craftymaster (OR=57, two recent wins at 16f, headgear) or Free World (OR=60, won at 16f on good last time, handles the going) could sneak through if the race fractures and the market leaders fail to deliver; this scenario is unlikely given the clear pace picture but represents genuine tail-risk at big prices.

The CraftymasterFree WorldMio AmicoTarbat Ness

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Rogue Empire — watch whether Owen Lewis (5lb claimer) elects to take the race by the scruff early or idles in front; if he is allowed to dictate a crawl, the hold-up pack will be crowding for position on the home turn.

WATCH

Laravie's visor — headgear worn here and significant recent improvement in form; if Laravie tracks Rogue Empire closely rather than getting buried in the hold-up pack, it becomes a serious pace-shape beneficiary.

WATCH

Mio Amico's 94-day absence on unfamiliar going — any sign of sluggishness or greenness in the first mile from this horse would effectively remove the second-biggest market threat from the race shape equation.

NOTE

Free World's "fades in finish" tag over 2 miles on Good to Firm — watch the betting market; if punters support this horse despite the flag, it suggests insider confidence in fitness over the form read, which is worth noting.

NOTE

The Craftymaster's weight advantage — at OR=57 with a 5lb claimer, this horse carries the lightest burden in the field; if the pace is truly slow and the race develops into a sprint finish, low weight could be decisive late on.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 14 August 2026.

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