Archive›Newton Abbot · 13 May 2026

Newton Abbot

13 May 2026 · 7 races

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5:30 — Classic Car Show On 9th June Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m1f · Good · NOV · 10 runners

Lead contested: Gone Away Madam v ArbitrationFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Jubertilee led; the map had Gone Away Madam and Arbitration in front.

Arctic Voyage won at 1.53 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Gone Away MadamArbitration

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

Medina BlueBontessony DollLouis Des LandesJubertileeBlue Siam

Hold Up · 3

Keep Off The SugarLirone Du SeuilArctic Voyage

Gone Away Madam and Arbitration will set a genuine gallop from the start, with both confirmed front runners likely to contest the early lead. Gone Away Madam showed she can sustain a bold front-running effort when winning over course and distance on good going, while Arbitration brings similar pace pressures having led in recent outings. This honest tempo will stretch the field and create a true test of stamina over the 2m1f trip. The sustained gallop heavily favours hold-up horses who can finish strongly, as the early pace will take its toll on prominent runners.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Gallop Favours Closers

65% probability

If Gone Away Madam and Arbitration both go forward and sustain a genuine pace throughout

The honest gallop will stretch the field and find out the stamina of prominent runners, allowing hold-up horses to close strongly in the final furlong. Arctic Voyage and the other patient types can time their challenges perfectly as the pace collapses.

Arctic VoyageLirone Du SeuilKeep Off The SugarJubertilee

Front Runner Dominates Soft Pace

20% probability

If one of the pace-setters gets an easy lead with the other failing to go forward early

Gone Away Madam or Arbitration can dictate terms at a comfortable tempo and kick clear when the pace lifts, making them hard to peg back. The hold-up horses will have too much ground to make up in the closing stages.

Gone Away MadamArbitrationMedina BlueLouis Des Landes

Mid-Race Collapse Scenario

10% probability

If both front runners tie up dramatically after setting unsustainable fractions early on

The pace will be suicidal early before completely falling apart, allowing a patient hold-up horse to pick up the pieces from the back. This benefits the most conservative riders who stay well off the early pace.

Arctic VoyageBlue SiamLirone Du SeuilLouis Des Landes

Prominent Tracker Strikes

5% probability

If the pace-setters set reasonable fractions but one prominent runner can track and outkick them

A horse like Medina Blue can sit just behind the leaders and have enough left to collar them in the final 100 yards. This requires perfect positioning and the front runners not getting too soft a lead.

Medina BlueLouis Des LandesArctic VoyageGone Away Madam

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Gone Away Madam's 760-day absence is extreme even for a course winner - watch for any signs of rustiness or fitness concerns in preliminaries

WATCH

Arctic Voyage carries 157lbs as topweight but recent form suggests he's well-handicapped - market support would be significant

NOTE

Both Arbitration and Gone Away Madam need to go forward early - if either misses the break it completely changes the pace scenario

WATCH

Keep Off The Sugar has shown a tendency to fade in the finish - watch for any early signs of struggling before the final furlong

NOTE

Lirone Du Seuil represents the Dan Skelton stable who excel with returning horses - any market confidence would be notable

6:00 — Day Before Terry Wheeler's Birthday Mares' Handicap Hurdle

2m2½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Evening Tess to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Reel Orange and Georgia's Charm and Yanka Blue led; the map had Evening Tess in front.

Reel Orange won at 2.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Evening Tess

Prominent · 1

Kylenoe Dancer

Midfield · 4

Reel OrangeGeorgia's CharmYanka BlueMiss Pearl

Hold Up · 2

Blackwater LillyIsabella Islay

Evening Tess will lead unchallenged with only Kylenoe Dancer likely to race prominently, creating a sustainable galloping pace without early pressure. The large contingent of hold-up horses including Isabella Islay, Blackwater Lilly, Reel Orange, Yanka Blue, Georgia's Charm and Miss Pearl will settle behind the modest early pace. This tactical setup strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable late traffic problems, while hold-up horses face a significant disadvantage trying to weave through the field in the closing stages. The lack of pace pressure clearly benefits those racing on or close to the speed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Evening Tess maintains her recent improved form and gets an uncontested lead

The lack of early pace pressure allows her to dictate terms throughout and kick clear when the field comes under pressure. Harry Skelton can time her effort perfectly without having to fight for position.

Evening TessKylenoe DancerIsabella IslayReel Orange

Hold-Up Traffic Chaos

35% probability

If the large pack of hold-up horses get shuffled back and struggle for racing room

The congested finish plays into the hands of those who positioned themselves handy and avoided the scramble. Isabella Islay's class tells if she gets a clear passage but many others will find trouble.

Isabella IslayBlackwater LillyEvening TessYanka Blue

Prominent Position Perfect

15% probability

If Kylenoe Dancer tracks Evening Tess closely and stays out of trouble

The Kim Bailey runner can pounce when the leader weakens and stay clear of the late charge from the pack. Tom Bellamy's positioning proves crucial in a race where tactics matter more than raw ability.

Kylenoe DancerEvening TessReel OrangeIsabella Islay

Late Charge Succeeds

5% probability

If the hold-up horses get perfect splits and the early pace collapses completely

Reel Orange and Blackwater Lilly find the gaps needed to unleash their finishing kicks. This requires almost perfect race-riding and luck with positioning that rarely aligns for multiple horses.

Reel OrangeBlackwater LillyYanka BlueGeorgia's Charm

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Evening Tess stumbles early hurdles - removes only pace angle and creates tactical chaos

WATCH

Isabella Islay gets shuffled back early - highest-rated needs handy position to utilize class advantage

WATCH

Multiple hold-up horses converge on inner rail approaching final turn - creates traffic jam

NOTE

Kylenoe Dancer tracks too close to Evening Tess - risks getting carried along at unsustainable pace

NOTE

Blackwater Lilly carries 168lbs over extended trip - weight burden tells in testing ground conditions

6:30 — Racing Welfare Supporting Mental Health Awareness Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Siam Park to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Move With The Beat led; the map had Siam Park in front.

Move With The Beat won at 2.75 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Siam Park

Prominent · 2

Inca De LafayetteMove With The Beat

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

Anyharminasking

Siam Park will take the field along from the front with no pressure from the limited field, setting a sustainable gallop over this extended 2m5f trip. Move With The Beat and Inca De Lafayette are both prominent racers who will track the leader closely, while Anyharminasking sits at the back as the lone hold-up horse. With only four runners and one confirmed front-runner, the pace will be moderate throughout allowing the leaders to maintain their positions. This race shape strongly favours the prominent racers and leader who can control the tempo and have first run on the turn for home, while the hold-up horse faces a difficult task with limited pace to aim at.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leaders Control Throughout

45% probability

If Siam Park maintains a steady gallop and the prominent racers stay handy

The controlled pace suits those up with the pace who can quicken when it matters rather than relying on a strong finish. Move With The Beat and Inca De Lafayette benefit from tracking the leader closely and having first run.

Move With The BeatInca De LafayetteSiam ParkAnyharminasking

Front Runner Dominates

25% probability

If Siam Park gets an easy lead and kicks clear turning for home

With no pressure on the leader and a sustainable pace, Siam Park can dictate terms and prove hard to peg back up the hill. The prominent racers may react too late to his move.

Siam ParkMove With The BeatInca De LafayetteAnyharminasking

Prominent Duel

20% probability

If Move With The Beat and Inca De Lafayette both challenge Siam Park early in the straight

The two prominent racers engage in a battle that suits their forward-going styles over this staying trip. Their superior recent form and class ratings give them the edge in a driving finish.

Move With The BeatInca De LafayetteAnyharminaskingSiam Park

Hold-Up Horse Sweep

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely and Anyharminasking gets a strong run through

Despite limited pace to aim at, if the leaders stop quickly enough Anyharminasking's class could tell. This scenario requires the front three to go too fast early or hit the wall late.

AnyharminaskingMove With The BeatInca De LafayetteSiam Park

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Anyharminasking needs the leaders to go too fast early or collapse late, but with only Siam Park setting the pace this is unlikely

WATCH

Siam Park's recent form includes two falls and could find the extended trip stretching his stamina despite getting an easy lead

NOTE

Move With The Beat has won twice recently in similar conditions and Isabelle Ryder's 5lb claim reduces the weight burden significantly

WATCH

Inca De Lafayette carries top weight of 162lbs and is having first run for 38 days which may blunt his finishing kick

NOTE

The small field of four means less cover for Anyharminasking and fewer pace angles to exploit from his hold-up position

7:00 — Come Racing On 27th May Handicap Hurdle

2m1f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Blacksamssenorita likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Stinginhisstep led; the map had Blacksamssenorita in front.

Ellerton won at 4.33 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Blacksamssenorita

Prominent · 1

One Island

Midfield · 2

EllertonStinginhisstep

Hold Up · 1

Cobbler's Boy

Blacksamssenorita will likely lead or sit prominently early, but with four other horses all showing prominent tendencies (Ellerton, One Island, Stinginhisstep) plus Cobbler's Boy as the lone hold-up specialist, this shapes as a competitive pace scenario. The multiple prominent runners will create genuine tempo pressure through the early stages, preventing Blacksamssenorita from getting an easy lead. With sustained pressure likely from the flag and only one confirmed closer in Cobbler's Boy, this race setup strongly favours the hold-up running style profile, as the pace will be honest enough to set up a strong finish.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustained Pace Pressure

65% probability

If the four prominent runners (Blacksamssenorita, Ellerton, One Island, Stinginhisstep) engage early and maintain honest tempo

The pace becomes testing through the middle stages, leaving the front group vulnerable to a strong closer. Cobbler's Boy's hold-up style becomes the winning profile as he picks up the pieces late.

Cobbler's BoyOne IslandBlacksamssenoritaEllerton

Blacksamssenorita Controls

20% probability

If Blacksamssenorita gets an easy lead with the other prominent runners settling behind without pressure

She dictates comfortable fractions and has enough in reserve to resist late challenges. Her proven front-running ability on similar ground becomes decisive.

BlacksamssenoritaEllertonCobbler's BoyStinginhisstep

Early Pace Collapse

10% probability

If the prominent runners go too fast early and come back dramatically in the straight

The race becomes a sprint finish where class and recent form matter most. Fresh legs and tactical positioning become crucial over running style.

Cobbler's BoyBlacksamssenoritaOne IslandEllerton

Tactical Mess

5% probability

If jockeys overcomplicate tactics with multiple runners trying to avoid making the running

A stop-start affair develops where the best horse on the day wins regardless of style. Pure ability trumps tactical advantage.

EllertonCobbler's BoyBlacksamssenoritaOne Island

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Cobbler's Boy if he gets too far back early - Skelton needs to position closer than usual given the likely pace scenario

WATCH

Blacksamssenorita's jumping under pressure - any mistake when others challenge could be costly given the competitive field

NOTE

Ellerton's fitness after 167-day absence - watch for any signs of rustiness in the early exchanges

WATCH

One Island and Stinginhisstep engaging too early - both need to conserve energy for the finish rather than getting involved in pace battles

NOTE

The pace through the middle section - if it becomes stop-start rather than sustained, the tactical picture changes completely

7:30 — St. Austell Brewery Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m2f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Viroflay likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Viroflay led, as the map showed.

Viroflay won at 1.83 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Viroflay

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 1

Lord Baddesley

Hold Up · 2

Certainly RedHoe Joly Smoke

Viroflay will take the field along from the front with his prominent style, setting a sustainable gallop that won't stress him early. With only four runners and three hold-up horses behind him (Certainly Red, Hoe Joly Smoke, Lord Baddesley), there's minimal pace pressure allowing Viroflay to dictate terms throughout the 3m2f trip. The lack of early pace will create a tactical affair where stamina and finishing kick become paramount in the final stages. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce their best effort late, as they'll get the steady early fractions needed to unleash their finishing speed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Viroflay sets pedestrian fractions with no early pressure from the three hold-up types

The race becomes a sprint finish where the best stayers with tactical speed prevail, as they get perfect conditions to wind up their finishing kicks. Certainly Red and Hoe Joly Smoke benefit most from the patient ride and strong finish this setup demands.

Certainly RedHoe Joly SmokeLord BaddesleyViroflay

Viroflay Controls Throughout

20% probability

If Viroflay's sustainable pace proves too much for the hold-up horses to peg back

His prominent running style allows him to build an insurmountable lead as the three hold-up horses leave themselves too much to do. The Paul Nicholls-trained gelding has the stamina reserves to resist late challenges having dictated the tempo.

ViroflayCertainly RedHoe Joly SmokeLord Baddesley

Skelton Tactical Masterclass

10% probability

If Harry Skelton positions Hoe Joly Smoke closer to the pace than his usual hold-up style

This allows Hoe Joly Smoke to track Viroflay more prominently and strike earlier than the other hold-up horses expect. The 12lb weight advantage over Viroflay becomes decisive when combined with superior positioning.

Hoe Joly SmokeViroflayCertainly RedLord Baddesley

Stamina Test Eliminates Field

5% probability

If the 3m2f trip on good ground becomes a genuine staying test that finds out the weaker stayers

Lord Baddesley's recent form collapse continues as the distance exposes his limitations, while others also struggle with the demands. Only the most genuine stayers survive to contest the finish.

Certainly RedViroflayHoe Joly SmokeLord Baddesley

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Viroflay building an unassailable lead if the three hold-up horses are content to sit too far back early

WATCH

Certainly Red's fitness levels after 67 days off, though his hold-up style suits this race shape perfectly

NOTE

Harry Skelton's positioning of Hoe Joly Smoke - whether he sticks to hold-up tactics or tracks Viroflay more closely

WATCH

Lord Baddesley's recent form slump continuing as his confidence appears shot based on last three runs

NOTE

The pace through the middle sections - if Viroflay goes too steady it sets up perfectly for the hold-up horses' finishing kicks

8:00 — Totnes And Bridgetown Chase Company Open Hunters' Chase

3m2f · Good · CLS5 · 6 runners

Golden Son likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Regatta De Blanc led; the map had Golden Son in front.

Golden Son won at 1.83 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Golden Son

Prominent · 1

Regatta De Blanc

Midfield · 4

Get Off Your PhoneHigh Game RoyalFongs WayEst Illic

Hold Up · 0

None

Golden Son is the likely pace-setter with proven front-running ability and Paul Nicholls' tactical approach, while several prominent racers including Regatta De Blanc and High Game Royal will track close behind. The small field of six means no genuine pace pressure, allowing Golden Son to dictate terms and kick for home when ready. This sustainable tempo over 3m2f will test stamina reserves in the final half-mile, with the lack of early pace likely creating a sprint finish between those who can quicken off steady gallop. This race shape clearly favours prominent racers and those with tactical speed who can position close to the pace and respond to Golden Son's move.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Golden Son Controls All

45% probability

If Golden Son gets an uncontested lead and dictates fractions without pressure.

The Paul Nicholls runner can measure out his effort perfectly over this stamina test and kick clear when others struggle to respond. His class advantage (OR 130) becomes decisive when he can race on his own terms.

Golden SonRegatta De BlancHigh Game RoyalGet Off Your Phone

Prominent Battle Develops

30% probability

If multiple horses challenge Golden Son for the early lead creating genuine pace.

The increased gallop finds out the stamina limitations of some runners and sets up a tactical finish between the strongest stayers. Regatta De Blanc's recent form and racing weight advantage could prove crucial.

Regatta De BlancGolden SonHigh Game RoyalEst Illic

Late Tactical Finish

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a crawling tactical affair.

The race becomes a pure sprint from the last fence where younger legs and recent race fitness matter most. Get Off Your Phone's unknown stamina reserves over this trip could be exposed.

High Game RoyalRegatta De BlancGolden SonEst Illic

Surprise Package Emerges

10% probability

If the market leaders underperform due to race fitness or jumping errors.

The moderate pace allows an outsider to stay in contention and capitalize on mistakes from the more fancied runners. Est Illic's experience at this game could prove valuable.

Est IllicGet Off Your PhoneFongs WayHigh Game Royal

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Golden Son's jumping under pressure - any mistakes could hand initiative to Regatta De Blanc tracking behind

WATCH

Get Off Your Phone's stamina reserves over this extended trip remain completely untested in hunter chases

WATCH

Fongs Way's fitness levels after 1092 days absence despite recent point-to-point runs

NOTE

High Game Royal's ability to quicken off the likely steady pace given his consistent but moderate rating

NOTE

Regatta De Blanc's race sharpness after 54-day layoff when pace quickens approaching final fences

8:30 — William Hill Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 2 Elimination) (GBB Race)

2m1f · Good · CLS4 · 10 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 13 May 2026.

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