Archive›Newton Abbot · 14 April 2026

Newton Abbot

14 April 2026 · 6 races

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2:33 — St. Austell Brewery Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m5½f · Good · CLS4 · 10 runners

Onefournine likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Dunaden Island and Queens Up led; the map had Onefournine in front.

Onefournine won at 2.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Onefournine

Prominent · 3

Laffer CurveDunaden IslandDavita Blaze

Midfield · 3

Queens UpFountains GalaJolissaint

Hold Up · 3

Stavanger RoseKaydenceBits Ballou

Onefournine will take the field along from the front with Dunaden Island, Laffer Curve and Jolissaint tracking in behind, creating a measured gallop over this extended trip. With only one confirmed front-runner and several prominent racers content to sit off the pace, this sets up as a tactical affair that will quicken from the home turn. The lack of early pressure means Onefournine can dictate fractions before the prominent racers and hold-up horses launch their challenges. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can track the leader and have the tactical speed to respond when the pace lifts.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Tactical Battle Unfolds

45% probability

If Onefournine sets uncontested fractions and the pace only quickens from two out

The measured early gallop allows prominent racers to position perfectly before unleashing their finishing kicks when it matters. Laffer Curve and Dunaden Island benefit most from this patient tactical affair.

Laffer CurveOnefournineDunaden IslandQueens Up

Front Runner Dominates

30% probability

If Onefournine maintains her lead throughout and the chasers fail to close the gap

The mare's class edge and tactical advantage of dictating terms proves decisive as she holds off late challenges. Her January Fontwell second suggests she has the finishing kick to repel challengers.

OnefournineLaffer CurveQueens UpDunaden Island

Hold-Up Surprise

15% probability

If the pace becomes too slow and a hold-up horse produces a late surge

Kaydence or Stavanger Rose benefit from a crawling pace that sets up a sprint finish where their closing kick can be effective. The extended trip plays into the hands of patient hold-up horses.

KaydenceStavanger RoseBits BallouLaffer Curve

Complete Pace Collapse

10% probability

If Onefournine goes too slow early and gets swamped by multiple challengers

The race becomes a messy sprint where any horse with a turn of foot can win, creating opportunities for outsiders. Chaos in the home straight favours horses with tactical pace.

Queens UpBits BallouFountains GalaDavita Blaze

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Stavanger Rose has failed to complete in four career starts including recent falls and unseats

WATCH

Onefournine returning from 71-day layoff after disappointing third start, needs to prove fitness

WATCH

Queens Up has unknown running style and lightly raced profile makes her hard to assess tactically

NOTE

Laffer Curve carries the highest rating and best recent form, likely to be prominent throughout

NOTE

Kaydence was always out the back at Wincanton but bumper form suggests she can improve over hurdles

3:08 — Newton Abbot Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle

2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

No Panic likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Tobi Kanobee led; the map had No Panic in front.

Jetty May won at 17.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

No Panic

Prominent · 3

Tobi KanobeeJetty MayAlbert Park

Midfield · 3

Gilded GlanceMakinbeconMasonbrook Meadow

Hold Up · 3

Green AssetBredon Hill DartKeepkalmandkarryon

No Panic will be the sole confirmed pace-setter from the outset, with Albert Park and Jetty May potentially sitting prominent but both showing questionable early pace recently. The lack of genuine speed means No Panic can dictate comfortable fractions through the early stages without pressure. With most of the field preferring to come from off the pace, this sets up a tactical affair where the leaders can control the tempo until the business end. This pace shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will develop in the closing stages when the hold-up horses try to make their moves.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Wins

45% probability

If No Panic gets an easy lead and maintains strong pace judgement

The son of Nathaniel can dictate ideal fractions and prove hard to peg back, especially given his recent wind surgery improvement. The lack of early pace pressure allows him to save enough for a sustained kick when the closers emerge.

No PanicAlbert ParkJetty MayTobi Kanobee

Hold-Up Rush Succeeds

30% probability

If the early pace becomes too slow and the track plays fair

Bredon Hill Dart and Green Asset can time their challenges perfectly in the straight, benefiting from a sprint finish. The course-winning experience of Bredon Hill Dart becomes crucial in a bunched finish.

Bredon Hill DartGreen AssetMasonbrook MeadowNo Panic

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If Albert Park or Jetty May can secure ideal positions behind No Panic

The prominent pair avoid pace-setting duties while staying clear of traffic, allowing them to pounce when No Panic comes under pressure. Paul Nicholls' Jetty May could be primed for improvement after recent breathing surgery.

Albert ParkJetty MayNo PanicTobi Kanobee

Traffic Chaos Benefits

10% probability

If the field bunches and multiple horses get hampered in the straight

A horse like Masonbrook Meadow who finds racing room can capitalize while others struggle with interference. The 5lb claimer Benjamin Macey's positioning becomes crucial in a rough-run race.

Masonbrook MeadowGreen AssetGilded GlanceAlbert Park

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

No Panic could get too easy a lead if Albert Park and Jetty May fail to take him on early

WATCH

Bredon Hill Dart may need the run after being pulled up quickly following his previous Chepstow effort

WATCH

Green Asset faces a significant fitness test returning from nearly five months off the track

NOTE

The 5lb claiming jockeys Shane Fenelon and Benjamin Macey could provide crucial weight advantages in a tight finish

NOTE

Albert Park's visor application suggests connections believe there are still untapped reserves despite poor recent form

3:42 — Thatchers Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Siam Park led, as the map showed.

Irish Chorus won at 3.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Uncle PhilSiam ParkRaffles Hermes

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

Irish Chorus

Uncle Phil, Siam Park, and Raffles Hermes will all want the lead, creating a fierce pace battle from the start over this 2m½f trip. With three confirmed front-runners in a small field, the early gallop will be strong and relentless, testing stamina reserves throughout. The demanding pace will set up the race for a closer, with the sustained gallop likely to find out any horse lacking full fitness or stamina. This pace scenario strongly favours hold-up horses who can sit off the pace and deliver late, making Irish Chorus the clear tactical beneficiary.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustained Pace Collapse

65% probability

If all three leaders engage in a pace duel from flag-fall

The relentless gallop will drain the front-runners' stamina reserves, causing them to weaken significantly in the final half-mile. Irish Chorus can sit behind the battle, conserve energy, and deliver a decisive late challenge when the pace-setters capitulate.

Irish ChorusRaffles Hermes

One Leader Dominates

20% probability

If Uncle Phil or Siam Park manages to establish a clear lead while the others fight

The dominant leader gets an easier time up front while the other pace-setters burn energy trying to get back in contention. The race becomes more tactical, potentially allowing a front-runner to maintain their advantage to the line.

Siam ParkUncle PhilIrish Chorus

Tactical Slow Start

10% probability

If the three front-runners surprisingly settle and don't engage early

The pace becomes more sedate, turning into a sprint finish where class and current form take precedence. This nullifies Irish Chorus's tactical advantage and makes it a straight shootout between the best horses on recent evidence.

Siam ParkRaffles HermesIrish ChorusUncle Phil

Late Pace Injection

5% probability

If the leaders go steady early but one kicks clear approaching the final mile

The race develops into a two-phase contest with moderate early pace followed by a sustained drive. This hybrid scenario slightly favours versatile horses who can adapt their position during the race.

Raffles HermesIrish ChorusSiam Park

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Uncle Phil may not handle the sustained pace battle given his age, weight burden, and questionable departure from previous stable.

WATCH

Siam Park's jumping under pressure if challenged by multiple pace rivals early.

NOTE

Irish Chorus positioning in first half-mile - needs to stay within striking distance without getting caught up in pace battle.

WATCH

Raffles Hermes stamina reserves when pace quickens, having raced mainly over shorter trips recently.

NOTE

How quickly the three front-runners establish positions - immediate battle suggests stronger pace scenario.

4:17 — Tribute Handicap Hurdle

3m2½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Lightonthewing to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Striking A Pose led; the map had Lightonthewing in front.

Striking A Pose won at 5.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lightonthewing

Prominent · 2

Striking A PoseI Love You Sivola

Midfield · 1

Welcheston Warrier

Hold Up · 2

DearkeithandkatyMy Own Lovely Lee

Lightonthewing will dictate terms from the front with his natural lead style, likely setting a sustainable gallop over this extended trip without serious early pressure. Striking A Pose and I Love You Sivola should track in prominent positions, while the hold-up brigade of Welcheston Warrier, Dearkeithandkaty and My Own Lovely Lee will settle towards the rear. The lack of genuine pace pressure on Lightonthewing means he can control the tempo and kick clear late, making this a race that strongly favours front-runners and those who can track the pace early rather than hold-up horses who rely on a strong gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Lightonthewing Controls Tempo

55% probability

If Lightonthewing gets an uncontested lead and dictates a steady early gallop

The 11-year-old can use his stamina and tactical advantage to kick clear approaching the final hurdle when others are struggling to close the gap. His recent Exeter success over 3m shows he thrives when allowed to set his own fractions.

LightonthewingStriking A PoseI Love You SivolaDearkeithandkaty

Prominent Pace Pressure

25% probability

If Striking A Pose or I Love You Sivola press Lightonthewing early and force a stronger gallop

The increased tempo will suit the younger legs of Dearkeithandkaty and Welcheston Warrier who can use their class to sweep past tired leaders. Both have shown they finish strongly when the pace is on.

DearkeithandkatyWelcheston WarrierStriking A PoseMy Own Lovely Lee

Slow Burn Tactical

12% probability

If the pace collapses completely with all runners content to sit and wait

This becomes a sprint finish where Dearkeithandkaty's superior class rating (OR 104) and recent Musselburgh success can tell in a bunched finish. The O'Neill team's 3/29 recent record adds confidence.

DearkeithandkatyStriking A PoseWelcheston WarrierLightonthewing

Hold-Up Surprise

8% probability

If Welcheston Warrier or My Own Lovely Lee get the perfect pace setup with a strong early gallop

The maiden Welcheston Warrier has shown consistent placed form and could finally break his duck if the race falls apart in front of him. His stamina looks assured at this trip.

Welcheston WarrierMy Own Lovely LeeDearkeithandkatyLightonthewing

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lightonthewing getting a soft lead - if he's allowed to bowl along uncontested he becomes very dangerous late

WATCH

Dearkeithandkaty's jumping under pressure - needs to travel smoothly to deliver his class advantage in the closing stages

WATCH

Striking A Pose's stamina reserves - his recent efforts suggest he may not stay this extended trip at racing pace

NOTE

How aggressively the prominent horses Striking A Pose and I Love You Sivola commit to pressuring Lightonthewing early

NOTE

Welcheston Warrier's fitness after 38 days off - any signs of rustiness will end his chances of finally breaking his maiden tag

4:52 — Visit Kauto The King 6th May Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Soldierofthestorm likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sheldon and Tapley led; the map had Soldierofthestorm in front.

Sheldon won at 3.25 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Soldierofthestorm

Prominent · 1

Tapley

Midfield · 3

SheldonHold Up La ColmineClotilda

Hold Up · 0

None

Soldierofthestorm will take them along from the front at a sustainable gallop, with all four rivals content to track him in a prominent bunch rather than press early. The lack of genuine pace pressure means this will become a tactical affair decided by stamina and jumping accuracy over the final half-mile. Tapley and Sheldon have the best recent form and tactical speed to capitalize when the pace lifts. This shape strongly favours horses with tactical pace who can quicken off a steady gallop rather than pure front-runners or hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Tactical Finish Develops

65% probability

If Soldierofthestorm sets modest fractions and the field remains bunched turning for home

The race becomes a sprint from three out with horses needing instant acceleration rather than sustained stamina. Tapley's recent Stratford win and Sheldon's Newbury second both came from similar tactical battles.

TapleySheldonSoldierofthestormHold Up La Colmine

Front Runner Dominates

20% probability

If Soldierofthestorm builds an unassailable lead through superior jumping and stamina

His three chase wins this season have all come from the front and the lack of early pace pressure allows him to dictate completely. The field fails to reel him in despite the modest early pace.

SoldierofthestormTapleySheldonHold Up La Colmine

Pace Collapses Late

10% probability

If the modest early gallop turns into a crawl with the field still tightly bunched at the last fence

Raw speed rather than stamina becomes decisive in a messy scramble to the line. Clotilda's class and Hold Up La Colmine's November Windsor form could surface in these conditions.

Hold Up La ColmineClotildaTapleySheldon

Jumping Errors Decide

5% probability

If multiple horses make crucial mistakes at the final three fences in the tightly-bunched field

The race becomes about who stays upright rather than who has the most ability. Any of the five could capitalize if rivals fall or lose momentum through poor jumping.

SheldonSoldierofthestormTapleyHold Up La Colmine

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Soldierofthestorm's jumping accuracy early - any mistakes will hand initiative to Tapley and Sheldon tracking behind

WATCH

Hold Up La Colmine's fitness after 31-day break combined with inconsistent form since November Windsor win

NOTE

Clotilda's position turning for home as 47-day absence may leave her needing the run despite Paul Nicholls booking

NOTE

Tapley and Sheldon settling kindly behind the leader to preserve tactical speed for final half-mile

WATCH

Benjamin Macey's 5lb claim on Sheldon potentially crucial if this becomes tight finish between top weights

5:22 — Newton Abbot Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)

2m1f · Good · CLS4 · 8 runners

Chocks Away likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Max d'Airy led; the map had Chocks Away in front.

Quickkick won at 4.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Chocks Away

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

Taranis DubhDuhallow StormMax d'AiryQuickkickJubilee Jack

Hold Up · 2

Ta Ra For Now JackGospel Moon

Chocks Away is the only confirmed front runner in this field and should get an uncontested lead, setting a sustainable tempo over 2m1f. With most runners adopting hold-up tactics (Taranis Dubh, Ta Ra For Now Jack, Max d'Airy, Quickkick, Jubilee Jack, Gospel Moon), the pace will be steady early before quickening from 3f out. The lack of pace pressure means Chocks Away can dictate terms throughout, while the hold-up horses will need to time their challenges perfectly from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and those with proven finishing kick over genuine hold-up types who may find insufficient pace to close into.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

45% probability

If Chocks Away gets an easy lead and maintains rhythm throughout

The Henrietta Knight-trained gelding can dictate ideal fractions and prove hard to peg back, having shown progressive form with a decent third at Plumpton last time. His prominent style perfectly suits the likely scenario of steady early pace.

Chocks AwayMax d'AiryQuickkickTaranis Dubh

Late Closer Surge

30% probability

If the pace becomes truly crawling and sets up for a sprint finish

The hold-up horses get ideal conditions to unleash late kicks, with Quickkick's proven finishing ability and Max d'Airy's Paul Nicholls polish coming to the fore. Both have shown they can finish strongly when getting the right race setup.

QuickkickMax d'AiryTaranis DubhChocks Away

Unexposed Winner Emerges

15% probability

If either Taranis Dubh or Duhallow Storm shows significant improvement from their limited starts

The lightly-raced pair possess higher ceilings than exposed rivals, with Taranis Dubh particularly interesting given his sole start was on heavy ground. Both carry question marks but represent the biggest potential upside in the field.

Taranis DubhDuhallow StormMax d'AiryChocks Away

Moderate Pace Suits All

10% probability

If Chocks Away sets reasonable fractions that allow closers to get competitive

The race develops into a genuine test where both pace and hold-up horses get their chance, creating a blanket finish. This scenario requires perfect timing from jockeys and reduces the tactical advantage usually gained.

Max d'AiryChocks AwayQuickkickTaranis Dubh

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Chocks Away getting soft fractions early could make him very hard to peg back given the lack of other pace in this field

WATCH

Taranis Dubh and Duhallow Storm both carry significant market expectations despite limited public form, watch for strong market moves

WATCH

Max d'Airy going too freely early like he did in France could compromise his finishing kick in the straight

NOTE

Quickkick needs to settle better than last time when wearing the hood for the first time at Taunton

NOTE

The going remaining genuinely Good will suit most runners, but any ease in conditions could favour the unexposed French recruit Max d'Airy

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 14 April 2026.

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