Archive›Newton Abbot · 18 September 2026

Newton Abbot

18 September 2026 · 7 races

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2:02 — Edmundson Electrical Cabletec Plymouth Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)

2m5½f · Good · CLS4 · 7 runners

Devon Red likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Depalma led; the map had Devon Red in front.

Depalma won at 2.20 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Devon Red

Prominent · 1

Depalma

Midfield · 3

PenzancePappanoDontcontradictme

Hold Up · 2

Black DakotaOcean Rose

Devon Red, a habitual prominent racer, will likely set or contest the pace but is racing out of his true role as an OR 88 in a maiden field and carries the least proven form of the pace contingent. Depalma, a proven prominent operator from the Dan Skelton yard, is the natural alternative pace-maker and will ensure the race is run at a sustainable clip rather than crawled. Penzance will settle in midfield with every chance to deliver from that position given it has won four times and placed consistently on this exact going, while the hold-up horses Ocean Rose and Black Dakota face a structural headwind: front-runners win at a strong 17.8% strike-rate over this trip and going, conspicuously outperforming the market, while hold-up types have underperformed at just 11.1%. This race shape—one confirmed prominent runner of modest ability paired with a more credible pace-maker—creates a sustainable mid-pace that favours horses able to travel and strike from midfield, not closers dependent on a breakdown.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Penzance travels midfield, quickens home

72% probability

If Depalma and Devon Red establish a genuine, uncontested pace and Penzance settles in midfield 3rd or 4th, travelling smoothly into the main race.

Penzance has won four times and placed on this exact going and trip; from midfield it has both the class and the record to attack the tiring pace-setters in the straight. Midfield runners at this course and distance show solid strike-rate equity (10.4% wins, 1.01 A/E) and Penzance's proven record on good ground seals the appeal.

PenzanceDepalmaDevon RedOcean Rose

Depalma outkicks from prominent

18% probability

If Depalma uses his proven pace credentials to press or lead Devon Red early and sustains the advantage through the closing stages.

The Dan Skelton yard is in strong form (8/33 in 14 days) and Depalma has a clear front-runner pedigree; front-runners do outperform the market here, but Depalma must do it himself against a modest field. His wins and places on good ground give him substance enough to hold on if quickened.

DepalmaPenzanceDevon RedBlack Dakota

Devon Red leads throughout

6% probability

If Devon Red breaks smartly and sustains an uncontested lead despite being out of role for his OR and record.

This depends on Devon Red racing out of character and profile; his rating is low (88), he has not shown leading form, and the scenario contradicts his recent pattern. The probability is discounted accordingly.

Devon RedDepalmaPenzanceBlack Dakota

Hold-up horse prevails late

4% probability

If the pace collapses, Ocean Rose or Black Dakota close late to steal the race from tired front-runners.

Hold-up horses have badly underperformed at this track and trip (11.1% wins), and neither Ocean Rose nor Black Dakota carries winning form (both 0W in recent starts on good). The shape works against this outcome.

Ocean RoseBlack DakotaPenzanceDepalma

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Depalma's Dan Skelton yard is in red-hot form; do not underestimate his ability to press or lead and control the pace from the front.

NOTE

Penzance's record on good ground at this exact track and trip is exceptional (4W, 4P from 6); midfield from which to strike is its natural sphere.

WATCH

Devon Red is mapped prominent but is an OR 88 with no recent evidence of leading; expect him to be pushed back into a secondary role early, weakening that scenario.

NOTE

Hold-up runners (Ocean Rose, Black Dakota) face a stacked deck: the style underperforms by 3 percentage points at this course and distance, and neither has winning form to overcome it.

2:37 — Southlands Care Home Mares' Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

2m1f · Good · NOV · 8 runners

Fine Thing likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ask Peter led; the map had Fine Thing in front.

Babs won at 2.38 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Fine Thing

Prominent · 1

Ask Peter

Midfield · 3

Kamille Au KanadaYeld To CallLara K

Hold Up · 3

BabsNala The LionessLittle Lady Rock

Fine Thing is the sole confirmed front-runner and will be expected to dictate from the break, having led in her last two outings and raced in front at this venue on good ground previously. With no other horse showing a pattern of forcing the pace, she will likely set a sustainable rhythm without serious challenge, allowing the field to settle into a rhythm-dependent race rather than a high-pressure affair. Front-runners have a strong record over this 2m1f at Newton Abbot on good going, and Fine Thing's recent record and yard form (8 winners from 33 runs in the last 14 days) compound that advantage. This race shape favours a controlled front-running performance, followed by a middle-distance test where hold-up horses — notably Babs, the Strand Scorecard danger — must overcome a moderate tempo to strike late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Fine Thing clear in front

68% probability

If Fine Thing settles on the pace unchallenged and quickens clear from two out.

Fine Thing will control the race from the front and build a decisive lead in the closing stages; hold-up horses like Babs will be left too much to do against a strong-travelling front-runner and good-ground specialist. Front-runners have historically won at a strong rate over this trip and surface.

Fine ThingAsk PeterKamille Au KanadaLittle Lady Rock

Babs hunts down leader late

16% probability

If Fine Thing's pace proves contestable and Babs finds a clear run in the straight to attack the leader.

Babs has a consistent record on good ground (2 wins, 3 places from 6 runs) and has shown recent form, and hold-up tactics can spring surprises on moderate paces; however, a sustainable early tempo and Fine Thing's record make this less likely. The pace will need to compress enough to allow a late injection of pace to succeed.

BabsNala The LionessFine ThingKamille Au Kanada

Kamille Au Kanada emerges midfield

10% probability

If the race unfolds in the middle third and Kamille Au Kanada's recent win (1 from 3 runs, 2 places) and good-ground form (1 win, 2 places from 3 runs) translate to a prominent finish.

Kamille Au Kanada will need to track a moderate pace and quicken into a gap in the closing furlong; midfield runners have converted at a below-market rate on this trip, making this scenario a clear third choice. Sam Twiston-Davies' tactical flexibility could create an opportunity if the early fractions are uncontested.

Kamille Au KanadaLittle Lady RockBabsAsk Peter

Lightly-raced newcomer capitalises

6% probability

If Lara K's fresh profile and lack of recent form reveal unexpected class or if the race devolves into chaos at the jumps.

Lightly-raced, unexposed mares can occasionally surprise on debut, but Lara K's complete absence of recorded form and unknown running style make this the lowest-probability outcome in a field with established records and pace direction. Only multiple early fallers or unseating would create the conditions for a shock.

Lara KYeld To CallNala The LionessAsk Peter

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Babs has won on good ground at this trip twice in six runs and will be heavily backed; if Fine Thing's early pace falters or she meets trouble jumping, late-running punters will fancy the odds.

WATCH

Fine Thing carries 166lbs (top weight) and must jump accurately from the start; at 29 days since last run, any rusty jumping could allow press men like Ask Peter to close the gap early.

NOTE

Kamille Au Kanada is ranked top by the Scorecard despite racing from midfield; she has genuine good-ground credentials but will need a clear run in the straight, and midfield runners underperform here relative to backers' expectations.

NOTE

Lara K is completely unexposed and unrated; in a novice mares' hurdle with a thin early pace, an improver could slip through, but absence of evidence makes her unsuitable to trust.

WATCH

The field contains three genuine hold-up horses (Babs, Little Lady Rock, Nala The Lioness) competing for the same late-race attacking space; if Fine Thing's tempo invites a cavalry charge, they will interfere with each other's runs.

3:12 — Devondale Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 3 runners

It's A Breeze likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

It's A Breeze led, as the map showed.

Intosomethinggood won at 2.20 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

It's A Breeze

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 1

Thickthorn Tom

Hold Up · 1

Intosomethinggood

It's A Breeze will be ridden positively from the flag as the only horse with any realistic claim to the lead, though the rider will need to manage a field where two genuine hold-up types (Thickthorn Tom and Intosomethinggood) are genuinely strong stayers who will be ridden patiently. A sustainable, uncontested pace is most likely — It's A Breeze setting fractions that suit a horse staying on rather than a true front-runner trying to dictate. The field contains more hold-up and prominent strength than typical for a 3-runner race, and Thickthorn Tom's recent form (four wins and seven places on good ground) marks it as the genuine danger despite being ridden from behind. This race shape strongly favours horses with the class and stamina to attack in the closing stages, where hold-up types have historically been winning 11% of races over 2m5f on good ground — a figure held back only by weaker execution. Front-runners win at a 17.8% strike rate here, but that edge depends on true pace-setters; It's A Breeze racing out of its natural role means the race is more likely to be won by a finishing type than a leading one.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Intosomethinggood rallies from rear

28% probability

If Intosomethinggood settles and attacks at the line under patient tactics.

Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden this horse to a recent win and two places over this distance on good ground; it handled a 188-day absence to finish placed last time and will relish the slow-burn gallop It's A Breeze is certain to set. Hold-up horses at 2m5f good are dangerous finishers when properly ridden, and the bare form (1-2-8-4-2 recent) suggests a horse waiting for one clear run.

Intosomethinggood

Thickthorn Tom steals it late

42% probability

If Thickthorn Tom settles in behind, finds room in the straight, and quickens past a tiring leader.

Dan Skelton's yard maintains a 8 in 33 strike rate over 14 days; Thickthorn Tom won four of its last five on good ground over 20–24f, is only 14 days off the bridle, and carries just 148lbs. Harry Skelton is a master of timing the run, and a true hold-up horse on this form profile is the natural winner when set an uncontested pace by an out-of-role runner.

Thickthorn Tom

It's A Breeze holds on

18% probability

If It's A Breeze presses on from the front and the field fails to organise a sustained challenge.

Paul Nicholls trained the winner just three days ago and is in sharp form; the horse has won over this distance on good ground and may catch a flat foot in a three-horse race if the other two are slow to strike. Front-runners do hold a genuine edge at 2m5f good (17.8% win rate), and if It's A Breeze can steal 4–5 lengths early, a fatigued field may not catch it.

It's A Breeze

Pace crumbles; Intosomethinggood edges it

12% probability

If It's A Breeze fades badly or is unable to sustain fractions, leaving a muddled race to be picked up.

This is the residual chaos scenario: a 7yo making a sharp return after 22 days, ridden out of type, could flop, leaving Intosomethinggood to pick over the pieces in a slow-motion affair where form and experience win small pots. Unlikely if the favourite is fit, but low-speed 3-horse races occasionally fracture in the paddock.

Intosomethinggood

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Thickthorn Tom's recent win rate (4 of last 5) and Harry Skelton's tactical mastery make it the most dangerous closer — if It's A Breeze tires inside the final 200m, it will strike.|

WATCH

It's A Breeze racing out of type as a reluctant pace-setter; if the horse makes a poor start or Skelton and Twiston-Davies combine to pressure it early, fractions could collapse and the race could turn into a scramble.|

NOTE

Three-runner field means tactical options are limited and the pace will reflect what It's A Breeze can deliver alone; any stumble at a fence will cost meaningful ground with no ability to recover in such a small field.|

NOTE

Good going is consistent all day, so ground concerns are minimal; Intosomethinggood's 188-day absence is notable but it was placed last time, signalling fitness.|

3:47 — Bayside Signs & Display Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase

3m2f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Great d'Ange likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Unspeakable led; the map had Great d'Ange in front.

Testflight won at 9.50 — was held up, as the map had it.

4 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Great d'Ange

Prominent · 2

Royal TimeBroadway Honey

Midfield · 1

Unspeakable

Hold Up · 3

Flashy BoyTestflightFiskardo

Great d'Ange will set the pace from the front; Royal Time, Broadway Honey and the true prominent racer Unspeakable will shadow and press, creating a strong, contestable tempo in the middle stages. Fiskardo, Flashy Boy and Testflight will track from behind, waiting for the pace to crack or weaken into the final mile. This field contains more pace-setters than can all hold forward positions — Great d'Ange and Unspeakable will fight hardest for the lead, with Royal Time and Broadway Honey squeezed into a supporting role. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and ground here, winning at above-par rates; hold-up horses have faded badly in the data. The race shape favours a horse that can dictate or sit close to the pace and quicken away — a front-runner or early-pressing profile is heavily favoured over late-running tactics.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front-runner controls; closers fold

71% probability

If Great d'Ange can lead or sit prominently unchallenged into the straight.

Great d'Ange will set a strong, steady tempo that tires the closers; Fiskardo and Flashy Boy lack the pace to challenge on the bridle and fade. Front-runners have won at above-market rates here, and a horse dictating from the front bypasses the congestion in the race.

Great d'AngeRoyal TimeFlashy BoyBroadway Honey

Prominent pressing pair battle home

16% probability

If Royal Time or Broadway Honey can get to the front in the final half-mile and out-kick Great d'Ange.

One of the supporting pace-setters quickens past a tiring leader late and holds on; early pressure does not break but merely tees up a late poker. Neither runner is a confirmed front-runner, and both have mixed records in similar races, but the ground is ideal and both jockeys ride positively.

Royal TimeBroadway HoneyGreat d'AngeUnspeakable

Fiskardo raids late from close; holds on

9% probability

If Fiskardo breaks well, settles close to the pace in third or fourth, and finds a finishing kick in the final two furlongs.

Fiskardo has won on this ground and trip, races out of a yard in form, and has the speed and jumping to track the early war without burning energy. A hold-up horse is unlikely to dominate here, but one settled in midfield close to a hot pace has an angle.

FiskardoFlashy BoyGreat d'AngeRoyal Time

Unspeakable surge; tactical gift

4% probability

If the pace collapses early and Unspeakable — a true prominent racer held deeper than its nature — gets loose stride and room to run through.

Unspeakable is a genuine pace horse forced to race in midfield and could exploit a slow-burn race to pick up tiring leaders. This scenario requires the pace to soften and Unspeakable to find clear air, both low-probability outcomes in a field this crowded with pace.

UnspeakableBroadway HoneyFiskardoTestflight

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Great d'Ange uncontested in front: if he settles and controls the tempo unchallenged through the middle, he will very likely break the field's resistance, as front-runners are structurally favoured here.

WATCH

Fiskardo and Flashy Boy in hold-up roles: hold-up horses have won under 12% at this track and trip, and both will need significant luck, tightly-bunched pace and a glaring gap to threaten late.

WATCH

Unspeakable's true running style versus its mapped position: Unspeakable is a natural prominent racer held deeper than it wants by the weight of pace in the race; if it cannot find room or is caught in traffic, it will not be able to dominate late.

NOTE

Royal Time and Broadway Honey congestion: both are support-pace runners competing for the same real estate; one will likely shadow Great d'Ange for the whole race while the other gets squeezed out of contention early.

NOTE

Going report clean: Newton Abbot is good across all races; no ground concerns for any runner, and the ground is ideal for front-runners and early-pace horses.

4:22 — Colin Willcocks Memorial Handicap Hurdle Race

2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Kom Tu Voudras likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Bold Endeavour led; the map had Kom Tu Voudras in front.

Service Minimum won at 5.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kom Tu Voudras

Prominent · 2

HandmedownastarRebel Tribesman

Midfield · 2

King of The BronxBold Endeavour

Hold Up · 2

Service MinimumTop Coeur

Kom Tu Voudras will set the pace from the front, having led in four of its last six runs and backed that up most recently. Handmedownastar and Rebel Tribesman will race prominently in close order behind, with Service Minimum held up in midfield. The field contains more genuine pace types than can all occupy the lead and prominent slots — Bold Endeavour and Top Coeur are true prominent racers forced to race out of their natural position because the confirmed front-runners own the space. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, and a moderate pace set by Kom Tu Voudras will suit them well; this race shape favours horses that can track or press the early tempo and kick from there, because hold-up types will struggle to make ground against a manageable gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Kom Tu Voudras leads wire-to-wire

68% probability

If Kom Tu Voudras controls the pace and cannot be caught from two furlongs out.

Kom Tu Voudras is a confirmed front-runner with strong recent form on Good going and will get a soft lead; a one-paced gallop will suit its profile and Harry Cobden can ride patiently to the line. Front-runners win here at a healthy rate and Kom Tu Voudras's last-time win suggests it will jump well and settle into the bridle early.

Kom Tu VoudrasRebel TribesmanHandmedownastarService Minimum

Handmedownastar or Rebel Tribesman capitalize from behind the leader

18% probability

If the early pace collapses or a rival draws level with Kom Tu Voudras two furlongs out and accelerates.

Both horses have sound recent form on Good and will be well positioned in the second rank; Rebel Tribesman especially has won twice over this trip and going and is proven here. They can pick up the pieces if Kom Tu Voudras tires or be ready to pounce if the favourite falters under a late challenge.

Rebel TribesmanHandmedownastarKom Tu VoudrasService Minimum

Service Minimum runs on strongly from midfield

7% probability

If Kom Tu Voudras and the prominent racers soften and a hold-up horse finds room in the straight.

Service Minimum has two wins on Good going and a previous win over this course and distance, but hold-up horses have underperformed here relative to the market; the moderate pace may not provide ideal conditions for a late run and the horse's 117-day absence is a concern. Bold Endeavour may also threaten from out of role, but neither is ideally positioned in this shape.

Service MinimumBold EndeavourKom Tu VoudrasHandmedownastar

King of The Bronx or Top Coeur upset at long odds

7% probability

If an outsider steals a march early or the pace fractionates unpredictably.

Both have lightly raced profiles and minimal recent action (King of The Bronx last seen 395 days ago, Top Coeur 106 days); King of The Bronx is unproven and Top Coeur races out of role as a prominent type shown at the rear. Neither can be dismissed on a small field of seven, but both carry structural disadvantages.

King of The BronxTop CoeurKom Tu VoudrasRebel Tribesman

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Rebel Tribesman; unbeaten at this course on Good going with a proven track record over two miles five—if Kom Tu Voudras wavers, it will be waiting to pounce.

WATCH

Service Minimum; last run 117 days ago and hold-up horses have underperformed here—a slow-breaking gate or early bunching could leave it with no ground and a late surge into a wall.

WATCH

Bold Endeavour and Top Coeur; both are genuine prominent racers racing out of their natural slot because the field cannot accommodate all the pace; monitor if either breaks loose early and dictates, as that would favour them heavily.

NOTE

King of The Bronx; 395 days without a run is extreme even for a small field—if connections have timed a surprise, Collier's 5lb claim and a loose pace might offer value, but form absentees rarely fire.

NOTE

Going is Good across all six races on the card—no advantage or concern for any runner on ground terms.

4:55 — Tony Mccarthy Handicap Steeple Chase

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

The Gypsy Davey likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

The Gypsy Davey led, as the map showed.

Mr McWhinny won at 1.53 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

The Gypsy Davey

Prominent · 1

McGregors Charge

Midfield · 1

My Cullen

Hold Up · 3

Mr McWhinnyRule Me InVengeance

The Gypsy Davey has led in 3 of its last 6 runs and is expected to race prominently, but will not have the field to itself; McGregors Charge and My Cullen are also prominent types who will jostle for position early. The Gypsy Davey fades in the finish, which is a material vulnerability here, while Mr McWhinny and Vengeance are confirmed hold-up horses likely to track the pace. This race contains more pace than the map can accommodate — My Cullen is a genuine prominent racer shown in midfield because the field is top-heavy with pace types — meaning the true front-runners will compete for position rather than dictate. Front-runners have a strong record at this track and trip, and the likeliest winner emerges from horses who either lead throughout or run down tiring pace; the tactical pendulum favours stamina over early pressure.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Mr McWhinny close finish

72% probability

If Mr McWhinny settles in the slipstream and quickens in the final furlong when the pace-setters fade.

Mr McWhinny and Vengeance are both hold-up horses, but Mr McWhinny has a superior recent record (three wins in five starts on similar going) and the jockey-trainer combination fires home well at Newton Abbot. Vengeance is long absent (107 days) and is secondary even if the shape develops in closers' favour.

Mr McWhinnyVengeanceMy CullenThe Gypsy Davey

Gypsy Davey clear early

15% probability

If The Gypsy Davey ignores its fade pattern and sustains the lead through the home straight.

The Gypsy Davey led last time and can dictate pace, but it has a known finish vulnerability which makes this a lower-probability outcome. It would require a faster, more sustainable gallop than its form suggests.

The Gypsy DaveyMcGregors ChargeMr McWhinnyMy Cullen

My Cullen stages rally

10% probability

If My Cullen breaks through the midfield traffic to challenge the leaders at the death.

My Cullen is a true prominent type shown out of position due to field congestion; it has placed twice over this distance and going but lacks the winning record to be the primary beneficiary of a late push. The redistribution into midfield genuinely weakens this horse's chance in a shape that demands early placement.

My CullenVengeanceThe Gypsy DaveyMcGregors Charge

Vengeance rebounds

3% probability

If Vengeance shrugs off its 107-day absence to strike late from the hold-up role.

Vengeance has only one placed finish in six recent runs and has not raced in over three months; the form is marginal and the layoff is a material obstacle. Even in a scenario tailored to hold-up horses, there is no evidence to suggest a return to form.

VengeanceMy CullenMr McWhinnyThe Gypsy Davey

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

The Gypsy Davey's known fade pattern—it leads but weakens inside the final furlong, leaving the race open to a well-timed closer and directly favouring Mr McWhinny's comeback bid.

WATCH

My Cullen is a naturally prominent racer forced into a deeper position by field congestion; if it cannot force its way to the front early, it is unlikely to recover ground against a dour pace.

NOTE

Mr McWhinny is weighted and positioned perfectly to strike late, but the jockey must avoid committing too early—the field's pace will be moderate rather than rock-hard, so timing is paramount.

NOTE

Vengeance's three-month absence is a real concern; recent placings came on an older form curve, and the stamina shape that should suit hold-up horses depends on pace that may be softer than expected.

5:30 — Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Finale Handicap Hurdle Race

2m1f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

God of Fire to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Son of Hypnos led; the map had God of Fire in front.

Farhh Echo won at 5.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

God of Fire

Prominent · 3

Son of HypnosSaucatsOcean Heights

Midfield · 2

RetetiWarfleet

Hold Up · 5

EnziyaRaffles NobuBegin The LuckFarhh EchoClear Sky

God of Fire led in 2 of its last 3 runs and will be ridden positively by Jonjo O'Neill Jr., confirming it as the race's only true front-runner; Son of Hypnos and Ocean Heights are expected prominent racers but lack the credentials of God of Fire and will be secondary pace influences. The race will be set by God of Fire establishing a sustainable, uncontested lead from the flag, with Son of Hypnos and Ocean Heights competing for second-tier position work. This shapes as a front-runner's race: front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going (won 21.9% of races), and God of Fire's confirmed lead status means the race will be run to suit a horse with pace and the ability to see it home — a profile that rewards horses staying with or tucking just behind the leader, penalizing those caught too far back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

God of Fire dictates and holds

68% probability

If God of Fire uses its lead to control the race and none of the secondary pace horses can press hard enough to destabilize the pace in the final two furlongs.

God of Fire will set a rhythm it controls; hold-up types and midfielders will struggle to close the gap on Good ground and this trip, where front-runners have shown consistent advantage. The winner will be one who either travels with the leader or has the tactical flexibility to pounce before the line if God of Fire flattens.

God of FireSon of HypnosRaffles NobuReteti

Strong closing hold-up angle

18% probability

If the early pace steadies and hold-up horses get a clear run in the straight without having to overcome a commanding leader.

Hold-up runners do carry advantage at this track and trip when the race is loosely run; Raffles Nobu has solid recent form (won 1 of last 6 over similar ground) and the pace profile here is not strong enough to prevent a late challenge. The winner comes from off the pace, punishing a lack of dominance by the front-runner.

Raffles NobuBegin The LuckFarhh EchoEnziya

Prominent racer presses and wins

10% probability

If Son of Hypnos or Ocean Heights gets into a pitched battle with God of Fire in the final furlong and one of them finds more than the leader.

Prominent racers have had a harder time at this track (won 17.0% of races here), but if God of Fire tires or misjudges its effort, a horse racing handily throughout could strike decisively. Ocean Heights has won over this distance and has a trainer (David Pipe) with a good record at Newton Abbot.

Ocean HeightsSon of HypnosGod of FireSaucats

Midfield runner exploits chaos

4% probability

If the pace fractures in the middle stages and a midfield horse inherits a gap-strewn race.

Midfield runners are unfavored over this trip and going (won 8.7% of races), but a disorganized race with unforced errors could allow Reteti or Warfleet to thread through. This outcome requires God of Fire to fade unexpectedly and both secondary pace horses to implode simultaneously.

RetetiWarfleetSaucatsBegin The Luck

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

God of Fire must deliver on its front-runner profile; if Jonjo O'Neill Jr. allows the lead to be wrested away or goes too fast and burns out, the entire race shape collapses in the front-runner's favour and the field will swarm.

WATCH

Raffles Nobu, the card's named danger, is the sole hold-up type with a plausible closing record; if God of Fire's pace pace is steady but uninspiring, this horse could steal the race, so monitor the early tempo in the first half-mile.

NOTE

Clear Sky and Farhh Echo both carry the "fades in finish" tag; if either gains prominent position and appears to be screwing down in the final two furlongs, expect them to be overhauled regardless of their station.

NOTE

The 115-day absence for Begin The Luck and 87-day layoff for Warfleet are material fitness questions; if either looks laboured before the line, discount them as winning chances even if tactically positioned.

WATCH

Ocean Heights and Son of Hypnos must occupy the battle lines with God of Fire; if both sit passively or fail to press, the front-runner will set its own terms and likely see out the race untroubled.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 18 September 2026.

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