Archive›Newton Abbot · 27 August 2026

Newton Abbot

27 August 2026 · 7 races

✓ Historic — full access

Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

4:42 — Celebrating National Racehorse Week Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)

2m2½f · Good · CLS4 · 6 runners

Iwanttobreakfree to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

St Just In Time led; the map had Iwanttobreakfree in front.

St Just In Time won at 1.44 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Iwanttobreakfree

Prominent · 2

NightflyerMaria Mes

Midfield · 1

Wait At The Gate

Hold Up · 2

MorissetteSt Just In Time

Iwanttobreakfree is the sole confirmed front-runner in a field of six and, with no other horse likely to seriously contest for the lead, Harry Skelton can dictate terms at whatever tempo suits, nursing the 4-year-old through the 2m2½f trip on good ground at Newton Abbot. Nightflyer and Maria Mes are both prominently-ridden types who will sit just off the pace and keep the gallop honest without turning it into a true test of stamina. St Just In Time and Morissette are hold-up horses who will need something to go wrong up front, while Wait At The Gate's running style is unclassified and unlikely to be a genuine pace threat. With one uncontested front-runner setting a sustainable, self-selected tempo on ground that suits, this race shape strongly favours prominent-to-front profiles — horses in the first two or three who can travel into the race without expending energy and pounce at the last — rather than late closers who will need a collapse from the leader that nothing in this setup makes likely.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Iwanttobreakfree Controls Easily

72% probability

If Iwanttobreakfree bowls along uncontested and Skelton produces a controlled, measured display from the front.

Skelton sets a fair but sustainable gallop, the prominent pair of Nightflyer and Maria Mes track without threatening, and Iwanttobreakfree finds more when pressed approaching the last to hold on; his good-ground form (two seconds from two tries on Good) and trainer's 7/26 in 14 days make this the form outcome.

IwanttobreakfreeNightflyerMaria MesWait At The Gate

Prominent Pair Peg Him Back

15% probability

If Nightflyer and Maria Mes apply enough relentless pressure to force a stronger gallop that drains Iwanttobreakfree's stamina reserves late.

Both prominent runners sit tight throughout and pounce at the second-last when the leader begins to tie up; Nightflyer's previous course-distance win on similar ground gives him a meaningful profile edge here, and Jonjo Jr can time a late surge well.

NightflyerMaria MesIwanttobreakfreeWait At The Gate

Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late

9% probability

If the pace is genuinely strong enough to set up a finish for the hold-up horses and the leader fades inside the final flight.

St Just In Time, third over course-and-distance on Good last time, would be the main beneficiary if he can reel in a tiring field; Morissette is 116 days off the track and flagged as a fader in finishes, making St Just In Time the more credible threat of the two closers.

St Just In TimeWait At The GateMorissetteNightflyer

Chaos — Errors Shuffle Deck

4% probability

If jumping errors or a loose horse disrupt the race order and gift positions to horses who would otherwise be held up.

With an inexperienced field of maidens over hurdles, an early blunder by Iwanttobreakfree could see him drop out and allow an opportunist to steal a soft lead; this scenario is unlikely given Skelton's experience but cannot be fully discounted in a maiden hurdle.

Wait At The GateMaria MesNightflyerSt Just In Time

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Iwanttobreakfree sets the entire race shape — if he jumps poorly at the first or second hurdle and loses his pitch, the predictable front-running plan collapses and the race becomes entirely open.

WATCH

Nightflyer is 77 days off the track and has produced an early pulled-up run (P) in recent form — watch the market to see if Jonjo Jr's confidence in his fitness level is reflected by stable support, as a non-runner or flat display would remove the main threat to the favourite.

WATCH

Maria Mes has a TS gap concern — her topspeed figure is absent and she has never won over hurdles; if she makes a jumping error at a critical stage she is likely to fade and compromise the prominent-pace picture the scenario relies upon.

NOTE

Wait At The Gate's unclassified running style means Brendan Powell could place him anywhere from prominent to rear — watch the early stages carefully to see if he tries to dispute for a position, which would change the effective pace dynamic.

NOTE

With five of the six runners rated OR 120 and all at the same weight (bar small allowances), the race is tightly grouped on official ratings — any minor market drift or support for the outsider St Just In Time would signal yard confidence worth noting in a maiden where unexposed horses can surprise.

5:12 — Wotton Printers Newton Abbot Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase

3m2f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Better Off Alone likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Lynsey Larue and Knightsbridge led; the map had Better Off Alone in front.

Flashy Boy won at 2.62 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Better Off Alone

Prominent · 1

Knightsbridge

Midfield · 1

Flashy Boy

Hold Up · 2

Premier FantasyLynsey Larue

Better Off Alone is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with just five runners over 3m2f on Good ground at Newton Abbot, is highly likely to dictate an unchallenged, honest but sustainable gallop from the front. Knightsbridge is the most likely horse to sit prominently in second and keep tabs on the leader, while Premier Fantasy and Lynsey Larue will be deployed further back in their natural hold-up roles. Flashy Boy, a genuine hold-up type, has been remapped to midfield because the field contains more rear-of-field preferences than the race shape can accommodate at the back, but its natural inclination is to come from off the pace. With a single front-runner setting an uncontested tempo over a stamina-testing trip, the race shape strongly favours a prominent racer able to track the pace and strike from a close position at the business end — Knightsbridge, sitting just off the lead, is the profile that benefits most from this controlled, single-pace scenario.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Knightsbridge Tracks And Strikes

70% probability

If Better Off Alone sets a sustainable pace and Knightsbridge travels prominently throughout before asserting from the last.

Better Off Alone controls matters at an honest but unforced gallop, allowing Knightsbridge to stalk in second and deploy his proven Good-ground stamina over this trip; Knightsbridge's course-and-distance form (2W4P in 11 Good-ground runs) is ideally suited to this shape and he can strike decisively at the final fence.

KnightsbridgePremier FantasyLynsey LarueFlashy Boy

Hold-Up Pair Swallow Leader

16% probability

If Better Off Alone sets a strong enough pace to come back to the field and Premier Fantasy or Lynsey Larue deliver a sustained late run.

Better Off Alone, returning after 165 days and with modest Good-ground form, runs freely and ties itself up in the final mile, leaving the genuine hold-up horses in Premier Fantasy and Lynsey Larue to pick up the pieces; Premier Fantasy has won twice recently and handles Good ground well, making this a credible alternative shape.

Premier FantasyLynsey LarueKnightsbridgeFlashy Boy

Better Off Alone Front-To-Finish

9% probability

If Better Off Alone dictates a genuinely slow pace and kicks clear at the top of the straight, stealing the race from a near-stationery field.

With only four rivals and no horse willing to chase hard, Better Off Alone coasts in front and produces enough stamina to hold on; its low STYLE_FIT score and long absence temper this outcome, but on a track where front-runners can steal races over staying trips, it cannot be entirely dismissed.

Better Off AloneKnightsbridgePremier FantasyLynsey Larue

Flashy Boy Late Surge

5% probability

If the pace collapses in the final mile and Flashy Boy, remapped from its true hold-up role, gets a clear run to deliver a finishing burst.

Flashy Boy is a genuine hold-up horse running fresh after just seven days, and if the race is run to suit late closers it has the form to threaten; however, its STYLE_FIT discount and the fact it is not operating from its natural position make this scenario the least probable.

Flashy BoyLynsey LaruePremier FantasyKnightsbridge

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Better Off Alone's fitness after 165 days is the critical variable — if it runs freely and burns out in the final mile, the entire race shape shifts dramatically against the leader and towards hold-up horses Premier Fantasy and Lynsey Larue.

WATCH

Knightsbridge is carrying 163lbs over 3m2f on Good ground; monitor whether Jonjo O'Neill Jr. can hold a smooth position in second without being asked for an effort too soon on this stamina-sapping trip.

WATCH

Flashy Boy ran just seven days ago and is now being asked to race out of its natural hold-up role — if it is stiff or flat from the quick turnaround, Charlie Price may struggle to place it effectively in a small field where positions are compressed.

NOTE

With only five runners, any jumping error early in the race could have an outsized effect on the outcome — Better Off Alone jumping well from the front is essential to its chance of controlling tempo, and a mistake at one of Newton Abbot's early fences could immediately compromise its lead.

5:42 — Itus Event Support Services Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle Race

2m1f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Buxted Reel to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Most Wanted led; the map had Buxted Reel in front.

Buxted Reel won at 2.38 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Buxted Reel

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

Most WantedLinden LaneEstate PlanningAsk Peter

Hold Up · 2

Run Away JoePivotal Days

Buxted Reel is the sole confirmed front-runner in this seven-runner field and, with no other genuine pace-setter to challenge him, Stan Sheppard can dictate terms at a tempo entirely of his choosing over 2m1f on Good ground at Newton Abbot. That uncontested lead sets up a truly galloped, rhythm-controlled race where the pace is unlikely to be punishing early, giving Buxted Reel every opportunity to preserve his stamina reserves for the final climb. The rest of the field is populated almost entirely by hold-up types who will be chasing from off the pace, and with no pressure from behind until the home turn, Buxted Reel can control the race from the front without any meaningful challenge to his rhythm. This race shape strongly favours a front-runner or genuine prominent racer who can track Buxted Reel's fractions and produce a sustained effort, rather than a late-closer needing a strong pace to reel in — a slow-to-honest gallop dictated by one horse plays poorly for deep hold-up horses. The field holds considerably more hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear — Most Wanted, Linden Lane, Ask Peter and Estate Planning are all genuine hold-up horses redistributed into midfield positions they are unlikely to naturally occupy, meaning the race shape is even more one-dimensional in favour of the front runner.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Buxted Reel Dictates Unchallenged

65% probability

If Buxted Reel takes his customary lead, sets a comfortable gallop and faces zero pace pressure throughout.

Sheppard sets fractions from the front, the hold-up horses behind face an insufficient pace to close the gap in the straight, and Buxted Reel's recent form — including a win and a sequence of placed efforts — proves good enough at this level to last home; his 12/15 record on similar going is a significant asset.

Buxted ReelRun Away JoeMost WantedAsk Peter

Prominent Tracker Pounces

18% probability

If a horse sitting just off Buxted Reel's pace in second or third tracks every move and produces a sharper turn of foot on the run-in.

With no other front-runner to stretch the pace, the race becomes a tactical crawl that suits a horse who can sit close, conserve energy, and quicken; Most Wanted, with a win and multiple places on Good in this style, is best-placed to produce that effort even if racing slightly out of his preferred deep hold-up role.

Most WantedRun Away JoeBuxted ReelAsk Peter

Hold-Up Horse Gets Lucky Run

11% probability

If the pace collapses or the field fans wide turning in, creating a gap that allows one of the deeper hold-up horses to produce a late run.

This is a lower-probability shape because the pace is not expected to be strong enough to bring the closers into the race in normal circumstances, and the redistributed hold-up horses — Most Wanted, Linden Lane, Ask Peter and Estate Planning — face the extra burden of racing out of their natural role; only if something goes wrong for Buxted Reel does this scenario become viable.

Ask PeterMost WantedLinden LaneEstate Planning

Chaos Scenario — Buxted Reel Fails

6% probability

If Buxted Reel makes a jumping error, is pulled up, or fades dramatically, turning this into an unscripted scramble.

Without the race's only pace anchor, the field loses its shape entirely and the outcome defaults to whoever best handles the tactical vacuum; Run Away Joe's hold-up profile and similar-going record give him the best profile for a messy finish, though his fade-in-finish flag is a concern.

Run Away JoePivotal DaysMost WantedLinden Lane

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Buxted Reel's jumping must be monitored from the first fence — a single mistake at this course could compromise his uncontested lead and fundamentally alter the race shape that every scenario is built around.

WATCH

Most Wanted, Linden Lane, Ask Peter and Estate Planning are all hold-up horses who will be crowding into a midfield channel together — monitor for interference or traffic problems in the home straight that could block any one of them at a critical moment.

WATCH

Run Away Joe has been off 224 days and his fade-in-finish flag combined with a 3lb claimer makes him vulnerable late — if he is prominent early and capitulates from the second-last, he could cause interference with hold-up horses attempting to challenge.

NOTE

Pivotal Days' pulled-up run in recent form combined with the tongue-tie and cheekpieces combination is worth monitoring for any early signs of reluctance or jumping hesitation — a loose horse or refusal at a small field hurdle meeting can cause significant disruption.

NOTE

Estate Planning's step from Soft to Good ground after 72 days off is a double flag — watch his market move in the final hour for any significant support or drift that signals trainer confidence or concern about his readiness for these conditions.

6:12 — Md Elite Cleaning Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Centara led, as the map showed.

Breaking Cover won at 4.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

CentaraIce In The VeinsGower Prince

Prominent · 1

Obsessedwithyou

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Breaking CoverGore Point

Three confirmed front-runners — Centara, Ice In The Veins, and Gower Prince — will contest the lead from the outset over 2m½f at Newton Abbot on Good ground, making a strong, sustained gallop virtually inevitable. Centara (Paul Nicholls, OR 127) is the highest-rated of the trio and likely to press hardest for the lead, with Ice In The Veins and Gower Prince both needing to be up with the pace to show their best, creating immediate competition for the rail and a genuine test of stamina throughout. This contested pace scenario will stretch the field early, compressing the race for hold-up and prominent types who can travel efficiently before the final circuit. The race shape strongly favours hold-up and prominent horses with proven stamina on Good ground — specifically Gore Point and Breaking Cover — who can exploit the attrition created by front-runners burning each other off.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace War Suits Closers

52% probability

If Centara, Ice In The Veins, and Gower Prince fight for the lead and set a gruelling gallop that drains each other before the last

The three-way pace battle ensures a strong tempo throughout, leaving front-runners vulnerable in the closing stages as stamina becomes the decisive factor

Gore PointBreaking CoverObsessedwithyouGower Prince

Prominent Type Pounces

22% probability

If Obsessedwithyou travels prominently off the hot pace and produces a fluent round of jumping to pick off the tiring pace-setters

Obsessedwithyou's outstanding recent form (sim-going 15/15, consistent 1-2 finishes) and prominent style give it every chance to stalk and strike from third or fourth

ObsessedwithyouBreaking CoverGore PointCentara

Centara Controls And Wins

16% probability

If Centara shakes off Ice In The Veins and Gower Prince early and settles into a controlled front-running rhythm without burning too much fuel

Paul Nicholls' runner has the highest OR of the front-runners at 127 and decent sim-going figures (11/15), and if able to dictate a measured pace rather than a war, can last home

CentaraObsessedwithyouGower PrinceBreaking Cover

Gore Point Dominates

10% probability

If Gore Point — lightly weighted at OR 117 and boasting a remarkable six-from-six winning sequence on Good ground — finds clear air from midfield and produces a decisive late run

Coming off just five days' rest with a hot trainer angle (Anthony Honeyball T14: 1/4) and a history of routing rivals at this trip, a bold late challenge is entirely feasible

Gore PointBreaking CoverObsessedwithyouCentara

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Centara, Ice In The Veins, and Gower Prince in the early stages — if all three press hard for the lead, the resulting pace war could produce a dramatically strung-out field by halfway, making hold-up horses' late runs far more potent

WATCH

Gore Point's turnaround of just five days since last run warrants monitoring at the start; if it appears sluggish or reluctant to settle early, the extraordinary Good-ground form figures may be misleading about its readiness here

WATCH

Breaking Cover carries 168lbs as top weight, the heaviest burden in the field — over 2m½f on Good ground this is a meaningful stamina concern in the closing stages, even if the pace shape ideally suits its hold-up style

NOTE

Obsessedwithyou's jumping fluency is central to its chance — if Gavin Sheehan can keep it prominent without becoming embroiled in the front-runner scrap, a clean round of fences converts its excellent recent form into a genuine winning chance

NOTE

Ice In The Veins has gone 58 days without a run for a trainer with zero wins in the last 14 days — monitor market moves and paddock condition, as a below-par performance here could be an early indicator that it needs this run for fitness rather than arriving at peak readiness

6:42 — Compwiz Ltd - It Solutions For Business Handicap Hurdle Race

3m2½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Jack The Savage likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Touchwoodexpress led; the map had Jack The Savage in front.

My Girl Katie won at 2.88 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Jack The Savage

Prominent · 2

My Girl KatieTouchwoodexpress

Midfield · 2

Blue SiamMan Oh Man

Hold Up · 2

Final EntryAlberts Bay

Jack The Savage is the confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine challenger for the lead in a field of seven over 3m2½f on good ground, he is set to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the outset. My Girl Katie and Touchwoodexpress are both prominent-style runners who will look to track Jack The Savage closely, creating a small lead group that sets an honest but unhurried tempo across Newton Abbot's undulations. Blue Siam and Man Oh Man are natural hold-up types that the race shape pushes into a midfield position they would not naturally occupy, meaning neither is likely to get the deep cover they need to produce their best — their redistribution tags must temper expectations significantly. This race shape — a lone front-runner setting a manageable pace with prominent trackers just behind — strongly favours horses racing close to the pace who can sustain their effort over this marathon trip, rewarding the prominent profile above all others.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Jack Dictates, Trackers Pounce

68% probability

If Jack The Savage bowls along in front at a sustainable clip and the prominent trackers My Girl Katie and Touchwoodexpress sit within striking range throughout.

Jack The Savage sets an uncontested lead, the pace is fair but not punishing, and the race becomes a stamina test for those immediately behind from three out; the prominent profile — particularly My Girl Katie given her recent form — is ideally placed to attack and sustain a run to the line.

My Girl KatieTouchwoodexpressJack The SavageFinal Entry

Front Runner Holds On

16% probability

If Jack The Savage sets only a pedestrian early gallop and is never meaningfully challenged, saving enough for a decisive kick from the final hurdle.

A tepid pace suits the horse in front most of all, and Jack The Savage — with his strong record at this trip on good ground and a capable pilot in Sean Bowen — finds a second wind when asked and refuses to be caught.

Jack The SavageMy Girl KatieTouchwoodexpressFinal Entry

Closers Deliver Late

10% probability

If the early pace quickens sufficiently to string out the field and the prominent runners tire badly in the closing stages.

Final Entry, a hold-up type with strong course form over similar distances on good ground, is best placed of the rear-most runners to pick up the pieces; however, Blue Siam and Man Oh Man are not in their natural role here and their ability to produce a true late run is compromised by their forced midfield positions.

Final EntryAlberts BayMan Oh ManBlue Siam

Race Falls Apart, Chaos

6% probability

If the field suffers significant incidents — falls, unseated riders, or multiple errors at hurdles — that scramble the anticipated race shape entirely.

With a 92-day absence, Alberts Bay is an unknown quantity and could outperform expectations in a messy race; Final Entry's versatility also makes it a beneficiary if the form book is torn up.

Alberts BayFinal EntryMan Oh ManBlue Siam

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

My Girl Katie arrives on the back of two wins at this exact distance and going — if she secures the position just off Jack The Savage's shoulder, she is the primary threat to any other runner in the field.

WATCH

Blue Siam and Man Oh Man are both shown in midfield but are genuine hold-up types out of their natural role — if either drifts back to their true position in the early stages, the midfield picture could shift and create gaps for Final Entry or Alberts Bay.

WATCH

Touchwoodexpress wears a visor for the first time and could either sharpen dramatically or react unpredictably in the early stages — watch how Sam Twiston-Davies manages him from the gate, as erratic jumping could compromise the prominent runners around him.

NOTE

Jack The Savage's pace is key to the whole race — if Sean Bowen allows him to crawl early, the contest collapses into a sprint from the home turn and the hold-up types gain a marginal foothold despite their positional compromise.

NOTE

Alberts Bay is 92 days off the track and drops significantly in class (OR 83) — if Jackie Du Plessis has her horse freshened and ready, a bold show here at big odds cannot be dismissed, particularly if the race falls apart late.

7:12 — Marilyn And Millie's Retirement Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Mcgregors Charge to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Quick Sharpener and Lady Kara led; the map had Mcgregors Charge in front.

Thickthorn Tom won at 2.25 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Mcgregors Charge

Prominent · 2

Quick SharpenerLady Kara

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Thickthorn TomIt's A Breeze

Mcgregors Charge is the sole confirmed front-runner in this five-horse field and will set sail from the front unchallenged, likely dictating at a measured, controlled tempo on Good ground over 2m5f. Quick Sharpener and Lady Kara will press prominently just off the leader, meaning the race will be run at an honest but not brutal gallop with a settled order through the middle stages. The two hold-up horses — Thickthorn Tom and It's A Breeze — will be tracking from the rear, needing the pace to lift in the final circuit to deliver their finishing efforts. This race shape firmly favours prominent racers who can travel close to the pace and strike before the hold-up horses wind up, as a lone front-runner at a sustainable tempo rarely creates enough of a stamina test to fully unlock closers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

72% probability

If Mcgregors Charge sets an uncontested, measured gallop that allows Quick Sharpener and Lady Kara to travel comfortably in his slipstream and pounce turning in.

Mcgregors Charge controls fractions throughout and the race never becomes a searching test of stamina, allowing the prominent pair to stay on the bridle deep into the race and attack with energy in hand. Lady Kara's excellent form on Good ground (11/12 sim-going record, three wins) and Quick Sharpener's class at OR 111 both suit this shape perfectly.

Lady KaraQuick SharpenerMcgregors ChargeThickthorn Tom

Hold-Up Pair Collide Late

16% probability

If the early pace is fractionally stronger than expected and the prominent trio fade entering the final half-mile, leaving space for the closers to deliver.

Thickthorn Tom, with Harry Skelton aboard and five recent wins on Good ground, has the class and course-appropriate form to sustain a late run if conditions suit a longer gallop. It's A Breeze is less exposed at this trip having won at 21f on Good twice but relies on the pace truly lifting, which is only modestly likely here.

Thickthorn TomIt's A BreezeLady KaraQuick Sharpener

Front Runner Defies Odds

8% probability

If Mcgregors Charge is allowed to bowl along at a truly slow pace, never pressured, and simply gallops his rivals into the ground on a flat finish.

Mcgregors Charge has raced 12 days ago and is fit, and a complete lack of pressure could allow him to steal an unassailable lead entering the final circuit. His OR of 81 makes this a long shot against significantly higher-rated rivals, but a truly uncontested lead over a galloping track is the one scenario that bridges the class gap.

Mcgregors ChargeQuick SharpenerLady Kara

Race Falls Apart Tactically

4% probability

If multiple runners jump poorly or incidents disrupt the settled order, scrambling the pace and forcing chaos in the jumping.

With fences to negotiate and a small field, errors by any of the three prominent types could bunch the field and cause interference that reshuffles expected positions. This chaotic shape is low probability but worth noting given Lady Kara's recent unseated rider (U in form) and the generally tight margins in small-field chases.

It's A BreezeThickthorn TomQuick SharpenerLady Kara

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lady Kara and Quick Sharpener will both want to press forward behind Mcgregors Charge — watch for either jockey to push for the lead position at the first fence, which could briefly increase the tempo and unsettle the projected settled order.

WATCH

Thickthorn Tom's hold-up style leaves Harry Skelton entirely dependent on pace being set from the front; if Mcgregors Charge crawls, watch for Skelton to move earlier than ideal and compromise Thickthorn Tom's trademark late run.

WATCH

Lady Kara has an unseated rider (U) in recent form — watch her jumping at the first two fences for any signs of hesitancy that might cost her the prominent position she needs to exploit this race shape.

NOTE

Mcgregors Charge's low weight (142lbs) and uncontested lead give him a genuine each-way profile in a small field — watch whether he is allowed to build a lead of more than five lengths at halfway, as that would significantly increase the danger he poses.

NOTE

It's A Breeze is unexposed over this trip with Paddy Hanlon claiming 5lbs — watch his jumping fluency, as clean, economical jumping in a small field could offset the stylistic disadvantage of being a hold-up horse in a slowly-run race.

7:42 — Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Handicap Hurdle Race

2m2½f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Beorma likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ellerton led; the map had Beorma in front.

Ellerton won at 2.25 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 2 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Beorma

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 1

Ellerton

Hold Up · 2

Donnie AzoffKing Of The Bronx

Beorma is the lone confirmed front-runner here and, with only four runners in the field, Harry Skelton will have no trouble lobbing to the front and controlling a thoroughly sustainable gallop on Good ground over 2m2½f. With no genuine challenger to press Beorma for the lead, this shapes as a steadily-run race where the early fractions will be modest, placing a premium on class, jumping fluency and a late turn of foot rather than stamina reserves. Donnie Azoff, King Of The Bronx and Ellerton are all hold-up types by profile, meaning the race will essentially be a procession until the tempo lifts coming down the back straight or turning for home. The race shape strongly favours a prominent racer who can dictate terms and a hold-up horse with a sharp enough change of gear to pounce late — a slow-run, front-runner's-gift scenario is the dominant probability, with late-finishing types needing a strong sectional in the closing stages to reel Beorma in. The field holds more hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear; Ellerton, though mapped to midfield due to redistribution, is a genuine hold-up horse and is unlikely to secure any position closer than the tail of this small field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Beorma Leads Unchallenged

70% probability

If Beorma dictates a mutualy comfortable gallop throughout, rating an uncontested rail to the line.

Skelton slots Beorma into a rhythm with zero pressure in a four-runner field, the pace stays honest-but-manageable and Beorma's excellent winning sequence on Good ground makes him hard to pass; the hold-up horses need a late surge that a controlled tempo makes difficult to generate.

BeormaDonnie AzoffKing Of The BronxEllerton

Hold-Up Horse Pounces Late

17% probability

If Beorma's pace is just sufficient to stretch the field and a hold-up horse produces a sharp enough late burst.

A genuine hold-up runner finds cover in a small field, tracks Beorma through the final circuit and delivers a late challenge as the tempo lifts in the straight; on Good ground, a horse with confirmed form in these conditions can close the gap quickly.

Donnie AzoffEllertonBeormaKing Of The Bronx

Pace Collapses, Blanket Finish

8% probability

If Beorma sets a dawdle and the hold-up horses get into a messy, close-quarters sprint finish over the final two flights.

A near-crawling gallop bunches the field, stripping away Beorma's rhythm advantage and turning the race into a stamina-neutral sprint that rewards sharp jumpers and tactical awareness; in a four-runner sprint finish, any of the principals can land a blow.

King Of The BronxDonnie AzoffEllertonBeorma

Front Runner Capitulates

5% probability

If Beorma, racing just two days after its last run, feels the effects of fatigue in the final stages and ties up.

The two-day turnaround for Beorma is an outlier flag and a horse that has been running consistently could find reserves depleted late on Good ground over an extended 2m2½f trip; any hold-up runner tracking patiently through the race then has only a tiring leader to reel in.

Donnie AzoffEllertonKing Of The BronxBeorma

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Beorma's two-day turnaround is unusually short — watch whether Harry Skelton allows the horse to stride on naturally or whether there is any sign of sluggishness at the start or in the back straight that could signal fatigue.

WATCH

King Of The Bronx returns from 373 days off and has a recorded tendency to fade in the finish — watch closely over the final two hurdles as any sign of flattening out will confirm the absence has taken its toll.

WATCH

Ellerton is a genuine hold-up horse in a field of four where gaps may not materialise early — watch whether Brendan Powell finds racing room turning into the straight or whether the small field creates a pocket that kills the run.

NOTE

With only four runners, the pace scenario is entirely dependent on Beorma's jumping — any mistake or deviation at a hurdle could dramatically alter the race shape and compress the field into a sprint finish that reshuffles the likely outcome.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 27 August 2026.

Tonight’s free races, in your inbox

Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.

One email a day. Unsubscribe whenever. Every race, every meeting →