Archive›Newton Abbot · 27 May 2026

Newton Abbot

27 May 2026 · 6 races

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2:53 — Stock Exe Building Supplies Mares' "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m1f · Good · NOV · 10 runners

4 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Lady Kara led, as the map showed.

Lady Kara won at 3.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

Lady LitigatorFrenatiLady KaraBabs

Prominent · 1

Whodunit

Midfield · 2

Minnie BelleG Whizz

Hold Up · 3

Princess Of BalleaBontessony DollAmhranai

Lady Litigator, Lady Kara, Babs and Frenati will ensure a strong gallop from the start, with all four having prominent/leading tendencies and proven ability. The pace will be testing throughout the 2m1f trip, particularly with Lady Kara coming off a dominant 9-length win and Lady Litigator showing consistent front-running form. With multiple pace angles engaged, the tempo will be genuine and stamina-sapping. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can pick up the pieces when the early leaders tire from the demanding pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace Collapse Finish

60% probability

If the four pace angles (Lady Litigator, Lady Kara, Babs, Frenati) engage early and compromise each other

The strong gallop will set up perfectly for patient hold-up types to sweep past tired leaders in the final furlong. Bontessony Doll and Princess Of Ballea can exploit their tactical advantage despite the class gap.

Bontessony DollPrincess Of BalleaWhodunitAmhranai

Lady Kara Dominates

25% probability

If Lady Kara can dictate terms from the front without serious challenge

Her recent 9-length Hereford win suggests she's found her form, and if allowed an easier lead she can sustain her effort better than the other pace angles. Frenati could track and challenge having shown good form here previously.

Lady KaraFrenatiBabsLady Litigator

Frenati Strikes Late

10% probability

If Frenati can sit just off the early pace and avoid the initial battle

Her close second here last time shows she handles the track, and Twiston-Davies can time a late challenge if the leaders go too fast. The Anthony Honeyball stable has both pace angles which creates tactical options.

FrenatiLady LitigatorPrincess Of BalleaBontessony Doll

Babs Tough Rally

5% probability

If Babs can settle better than her leading style suggests and show bumper class

Her Listed experience gives her a class edge, but she'll need to overcome her natural front-running instincts to survive the early pace battle. The 23-day break since Warwick might have freshened her up.

BabsWhodunitLady KaraG Whizz

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lady Kara and Lady Litigator from the same connections could create tactical complications in a pace-heavy race

WATCH

Bontessony Doll's 100-1 price reflects her debut unseating but her hold-up style perfectly suits this pace setup

NOTE

Frenati showed course form when second here and Twiston-Davies may try to settle her off the early speed

WATCH

Multiple front-runners engaging early will create a genuine test of stamina over this extended 2m1f trip

NOTE

Princess Of Ballea's strong hold tendency could leave James Reed with positioning problems despite tactical advantage

3:23 — Totnes And Bridgetown Races Company Ltd. Novices' Handicap Chase

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Ferando likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Senor Diaz and It's A Breeze led; the map had Ferando in front.

Thickthorn Tom won at 2.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ferando

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

Georges StreetRoi Du RoumeSenor DiazGetaway Tothe Wood

Hold Up · 2

It's A BreezeThickthorn Tom

With Ferando withdrawn, this becomes a race without a natural front-runner among the remaining six hold-up horses. Thickthorn Tom or It's A Breeze may reluctantly lead early but neither wants to, creating a crawling pace through the first circuit. The lack of genuine pace-setters means the tempo will be modest until someone forces the issue approaching the home turn. This collapse in early pace strongly favours hold-up horses with a devastating turn of foot who can unleash late kicks in a sprint finish.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Crawling Pace Sprint

65% probability

If no horse takes genuine responsibility for the pace early and they crawl through halfway

The moderate tempo sets up a cavalry charge from the back with the race becoming a pure stamina test up the hill. Horses like Thickthorn Tom with proven finishing kicks and recent form will thrive in this tactical battle.

Thickthorn TomRoi Du RoumeIt's A BreezeGeorges Street

Thickthorn Forces Tempo

20% probability

If Harry Skelton decides to use Thickthorn Tom's class advantage and dictate from the front

His superior rating allows him to control the race and kick clear when the pressure mounts. The stronger pace will find out the weaker handicappers and expose those returning from long layoffs.

Thickthorn TomIt's A BreezeRoi Du RoumeSenor Diaz

It's A Breeze Leads

10% probability

If Paul Nicholls instructs Lorcan Williams to make use of It's A Breeze early rather than risk getting shuffled back

His hurdle form suggests stamina for the trip but the burden of making the running may prove costly late. This creates opportunities for horses tracking him to pounce when he weakens.

Roi Du RoumeThickthorn TomGeorges StreetSenor Diaz

Chaos and Errors

5% probability

If multiple horses fall or make jumping errors in the testing Newton Abbot fences

The race becomes a survival test where experience over fences becomes paramount. Horses with proven chase experience like Thickthorn Tom hold significant advantages over the struggling maidens.

Thickthorn TomRoi Du RoumeIt's A BreezeSenor Diaz

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Getaway Tothe Wood attempting return after 18-month layoff with trainer having no recent runners - complete unknown quantity

WATCH

It's A Breeze needs to prove jumping reliability after falling four out on chase debut when travelling well at Fontwell

NOTE

Thickthorn Tom's early positioning with Harry Skelton aboard will signal whether they plan to force the pace or wait

WATCH

Senor Diaz has been pulled up in both chase starts and looks completely out of his depth at this level

NOTE

Roi Du Roume's jumping fluency will determine if recent hurdle form translates to chasing success

3:53 — Hugh Michelmore Memorial Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m2f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Time To Bite to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Time To Bite led, as the map showed.

Rickety Bridge won at 2.10 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Time To Bite

Prominent · 2

Blackjack MagicMoroder

Midfield · 1

Rickety Bridge

Hold Up · 1

Snipe

Time To Bite will take the lead as the only confirmed front-runner, with Blackjack Magic, Rickety Bridge and Moroder sitting prominent behind him. The veteran will set a sustainable gallop over this staying trip without being pressured early, but the prominently-raced trio will ensure he can't dictate completely. This creates a moderate pace that builds through the race, with the final outcome likely decided by who travels best into the straight rather than early positioning. This race shape favours prominent racers and hold-up horses who can benefit from the steady tempo without getting too far back in a small field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustainable Pace Suits Veteran

45% probability

If Time To Bite gets an uncontested lead and controls the tempo

The 11-year-old can use his experience to ration his effort perfectly, kicking clear when the challengers come under pressure. His recent Fakenham win showed he retains plenty of ability when getting his own way out front.

Time To BiteMoroderRickety BridgeSnipe

Prominent Pressure Tells

30% probability

If the prominent racers press Time To Bite harder than expected

The sustained pressure will expose Time To Bite's advancing years, allowing the fresher, more lightly-raced Rickety Bridge to capitalise. The Paul Nicholls runner's recent course win suggests he's improving rapidly over fences.

Rickety BridgeMoroderTime To BiteSnipe

Hold-Up Horse Strikes Late

15% probability

If the pace becomes truly testing and the leaders tie up

Snipe's proven stamina reserves and class will tell as he sweeps past tired leaders in the final furlong. His Aintree run showed he handles pressure situations well when allowed to come from behind.

SnipeMoroderTime To BiteRickety Bridge

Pace Collapse Favours Class

10% probability

If Time To Bite goes too slow and it becomes a sprint

The race turns into a test of pure class rather than stamina, suiting whichever horse has retained the most ability. This scenario creates chaos where form lines become less reliable.

MoroderSnipeBlackjack MagicRickety Bridge

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Time To Bite could get too easy a lead early and become hard to peg back if the prominent racers are too respectful

WATCH

Rickety Bridge may travel too keenly behind the leader given his inexperience, compromising his finishing kick

NOTE

Snipe needs the pace to be strong enough to bring his stamina into play from his hold-up position

WATCH

Blackjack Magic's long absence and advancing years make him vulnerable if the pace quickens significantly

NOTE

Moroder's jumping will be crucial as any mistakes will be costly in a small, competitive field

4:23 — Chris Wills Memorial Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle

2m2½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Alberts Bay to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Saucats and Getone led; the map had Alberts Bay in front.

Makinbecon won at 10.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Alberts Bay

Prominent · 2

Reel OrangeSt Lukes Chelsea

Midfield · 4

ScoresbyMakinbeconSaucatsBlazing Gaden

Hold Up · 3

Ocean HeightsGetoneCrab Road

Alberts Bay is the only confirmed front runner in this field and should get an uncontested lead in the early stages. With most runners adopting hold-up or midfield tactics, the pace is likely to be moderate rather than fierce, allowing Alberts Bay to dictate terms without significant pressure. The lack of prominent runners means the field will be strung out with a clear divide between the leader and the pack sitting off the pace. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours horses with tactical speed who can quicken from prominent positions, giving those who can track the leader or sit handy a significant advantage over pure hold-up horses who may face a wall of horses when the pace lifts.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Lead Holds

45% probability

If Alberts Bay gets an easy lead and the pace stays moderate throughout

The front runner builds an unassailable advantage as hold-up horses struggle to close the gap when the pace finally quickens. Prominent runners like Reel Orange and St Lukes Chelsea are best placed to chase home if they can get close enough to the leader.

Alberts BayReel OrangeSt Lukes ChelseaScoresby

Late Surge Succeeds

30% probability

If the moderate pace allows hold-up horses to get into contention turning for home

The patient tactics pay off as horses with finishing kicks can weave through and collar the tiring leader in the final furlong. Scoresby's recent win and Ocean Heights' class give them the edge in this finish.

ScoresbyOcean HeightsSaucatsGetone

Prominent Stalker Strikes

15% probability

If Reel Orange or St Lukes Chelsea track the leader closely and time their challenge perfectly

The tactical position proves decisive as they avoid the traffic problems facing hold-up horses while having enough in reserve to pass a tiring Alberts Bay. Reel Orange's course form makes her the likely beneficiary.

Reel OrangeSt Lukes ChelseaAlberts BayScoresby

Pace Collapses Early

10% probability

If Alberts Bay fails to maintain gallop or something goes wrong with the front runner

The race becomes a muddling affair that turns into a sprint finish where any of the hold-up horses could emerge from the pack. This chaotic scenario opens the door for an outsider to steal it.

SaucatsGetoneMakinbeconBlazing Gaden

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Alberts Bay gets headed early as there's no other natural pace angle and the race could become messy

WATCH

Watch Ocean Heights for market support given the long absence but David Pipe's horses can be ready first time back

NOTE

Watch for Reel Orange getting prominent early position as her course record suggests she handles the track well

WATCH

Watch the start closely as several hold-up horses need to settle and any early keen going could ruin their chances

NOTE

Watch how Scoresby handles the step up in class after his maiden win as the form needs testing at this level

4:56 — Mrs. Pamela Ann Dobbs Birthday Celebration Handicap Hurdle

2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

American Sniper to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

American Sniper led, as the map showed.

American Sniper won at 3.25 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

American Sniper

Prominent · 2

ByzantiumImpecunious

Midfield · 2

EllertonSam's Amour

Hold Up · 1

Chillhi

American Sniper will take the race along from the front with no obvious early pressure from the other five runners who all prefer to sit behind. Byzantium, Ellerton, and Impecunious will track the leader prominently, while Chillhi holds up in rear as his only hope. With American Sniper allowed an uncontested lead over 2m5½f, he can dictate fractions and conserve energy for a sustained kick. This pace scenario strongly favours the front runner and prominent racers who can travel kindly in behind before making their moves.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

American Sniper Controls

45% probability

If American Sniper gets an easy lead and dictates steady fractions throughout

He can use his tactical advantage to kick clear turning in while the prominent trackers struggle to peg him back over this stamina test. His December Taunton second suggests he's well handicapped when getting these tactics.

American SniperEllertonByzantiumImpecunious

Prominent Pressure Builds

30% probability

If Byzantium and Ellerton track closer than usual and apply subtle pressure from halfway

The pace lifts gradually and American Sniper's stamina gets tested, allowing the classier prominent racers to assert late. Ellerton's recent Newton Abbot win shows he handles this tactical scenario well.

EllertonByzantiumAmerican SniperImpecunious

Late Chillhi Swoop

15% probability

If the pace stays very steady and the field comes home in a bunch

Chillhi's hold-up style becomes an asset as he can produce a late rattle from the back of a slowly-run race. His dual hurdle wins last summer prove he has the class when getting the right setup.

ChillhiEllertonByzantiumAmerican Sniper

Pace Collapse Scramble

10% probability

If American Sniper goes too slow early and gets swamped by multiple challengers in the straight

The race becomes a sprint finish where any of the prominent racers can win in a photo. Sam's Amour might sneak into contention despite her recent struggles if the pace falls apart completely.

ImpecuniousByzantiumSam's AmourEllerton

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

American Sniper getting an uncontested lead through the early stages as this makes him very hard to peg back

WATCH

Byzantium's jumping after running out and crashing through rails in his last completed start

NOTE

Ellerton's ability to handle the 5lb rise after his comfortable Newton Abbot success

WATCH

Impecunious on stable debut for new trainer Ian Chanin with different tactical approach possible

NOTE

Chillhi needing the pace to collapse completely to bring his hold-up style into play

5:30 — Racing Foundation Supports Autism In Racing Handicap Hurdle

3m2½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Belgarum to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Belgarum led, as the map showed.

Supreme Yeats won at 1.73 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Belgarum

Prominent · 2

ClotildaSea Invasion

Midfield · 1

Renoir

Hold Up · 1

Supreme Yeats

Belgarum will take them along from the front at a steady gallop, with Sea Invasion and Renoir likely to track him in prominent positions early. The pace won't be fierce with only one confirmed leader, allowing Supreme Yeats to settle at the back before his trademark late charge. Over this extended trip, the race will develop into a staying test from the home turn, with Belgarum's early advantage gradually eroded as the better-rated horses close in the final half-mile. This measured pace clearly favours hold-up horses and closers who can time their runs late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Supreme Yeats Kicks Late

55% probability

If the pace stays steady throughout and Supreme Yeats gets the strong finish he needs.

The veteran times his run perfectly from the back as others tire, with his recent C&D win proving he's back to his best. His hold-up style is perfectly suited to picking off tired leaders over this staying trip.

Supreme YeatsSea InvasionClotildaBelgarum

Belgarum Stays Strong

25% probability

If Belgarum's wind surgery has genuinely fixed his stamina issues and he can see out the trip.

The front-runner builds an unassailable lead as others struggle to close the gap over the extended distance. His recent Fontwell win suggests the wind operation was successful and he can sustain his gallop.

BelgarumRenoirSupreme YeatsSea Invasion

Sea Invasion Times It

12% probability

If Sea Invasion overcomes his lazy tendencies and gets properly motivated by Twiston-Davies.

The prominent runner strikes at the perfect moment when Belgarum weakens, using his class advantage to see off Supreme Yeats in a driving finish. His recent Plumpton win proves he has the trip and going in his favour.

Sea InvasionSupreme YeatsRenoirClotilda

Clotilda Surprises All

8% probability

If the young mare's class tells and she adapts better than expected to the extended trip.

Paul Nicholls' mare uses her hurdle speed to quicken past tired rivals, with her previous Cheltenham placing showing she has the ability. The longer trip actually helps her stamina reserves come into play.

ClotildaSea InvasionSupreme YeatsBelgarum

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Supreme Yeats settles too far back early - if he's more than 20 lengths off the pace at halfway his task becomes much harder.

WATCH

Belgarum shows any signs of distress or laboured breathing approaching the home turn after his recent wind surgery.

WATCH

Sea Invasion travels lazily through the race without showing his usual enthusiasm - his motivation levels are crucial.

NOTE

Renoir jumps with any fluency in the early stages - poor jumping would effectively end his chances.

NOTE

Clotilda handles the step back up in trip - her recent runs have all been over shorter distances.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 27 May 2026.

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