Archive›Newton Abbot · 4 April 2026

Newton Abbot

4 April 2026 · 6 races

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2:00 — South West Rail Solutions Ltd. "National Hunt" Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m2½f · Soft · CLS4 · 12 runners

Lead contested: Warfleet v Poet's MuseFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Dutch Corner led; the map had Warfleet and Poet's Muse in front.

Dutch Corner won at 2.50 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

WarfleetPoet's Muse

Prominent · 4

JPR TwoDocteur RomeoLimier d'ArthelHandmedownastar

Midfield · 2

Dante's RoccoMrs Pen

Hold Up · 4

Saffron BelleHardly SurprisingDutch CornerAsk A Sainte

Warfleet and Poet's Muse will ensure this maiden hurdle starts at a solid clip, with both confirmed front runners likely to dispute the early lead. The honest gallop should continue through the middle stages given the combination of two keen pace-setters over this intermediate trip on testing ground. The soft going at Newton Abbot will magnify stamina demands in the final half-mile, putting pressure on those who race keenly or lack fitness. This race shape heavily favours hold-up horses with proven stamina reserves who can stay on strongly when the pace-setters weaken.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Gallop Collapse

60% probability

If Warfleet and Poet's Muse engage in a genuine speed duel through the early stages

The honest pace on soft ground will expose fitness doubts and stamina limitations, setting up the race perfectly for closers with proven staying power. Hold-up horses like Hardly Surprising and Dutch Corner can pick off tiring leaders in the final furlong.

Hardly SurprisingDutch CornerAsk A SainteDante's Rocco

Tactical Affair Benefits

25% probability

If one of the leaders gets an uncontested lead after the other fades early

The reduced pace allows prominent racers and those with tactical speed to stay closer throughout before producing their challenge. This scenario suits horses who can travel well in behind before quickening when asked.

Limier d'ArthelDutch CornerHardly SurprisingHandmedownastar

Front Runner Survives

10% probability

If Warfleet finds significant improvement after his long break and gets first run on rivals

The leader's class tells under pressure as he holds on grimly from those who leave their challenge too late. Early position proves crucial on the testing ground with stamina at a premium.

WarfleetLimier d'ArthelDutch CornerHardly Surprising

Pace Collapses Completely

5% probability

If both main pace angles disappoint and the gallop becomes crawling throughout

The lack of genuine pace turns this into a sprint finish where tactical positioning and a turn of foot matter more than stamina. This rare scenario could favor any horse getting the right split at the right time.

HandmedownastarJPR TwoLimier d'ArthelDutch Corner

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Warfleet could set inappropriate fractions given his 394-day layoff and tendency to pull hard when fresh

WATCH

Dutch Corner and Hardly Surprising both hold-up horses may get in each other's way if tracking same position

NOTE

Limier d'Arthel's jumping after falling at the first hurdle on stable debut remains a significant unknown

WATCH

The combination of soft ground and 2m2½f trip could expose several runners with stamina limitations late on

NOTE

Several claiming jockeys including Pritchard and Sansom could impact tactical positioning in a competitive maiden

2:35 — Les Drew Hello Matey I'm 80 Handicap Chase

2m5f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners

Begin The Luck likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ideallko and Firefly Lane led; the map had Begin The Luck in front.

Jack Doyen won at 6.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Begin The Luck

Prominent · 2

Tractor JackDevilsrollthedice

Midfield · 3

Firefly LanePalawan Du MazetJack Doyen

Hold Up · 2

Jack's A LegendIdeallko

Begin The Luck will set a steady pace from the front with limited early pressure in this 8-runner handicap chase. Firefly Lane, Devilsrollthedice and Tractor Jack may sit prominent early but none are confirmed pace forcers. The gallop will build gradually through the middle stages as Begin The Luck maintains control. This sustainable tempo strongly favours hold-up horses like Ideallko, Jack's A Legend, Jack Doyen and Palawan Du Mazet who can time their challenges late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Begin The Luck sets an even gallop without serious early pace pressure

The race becomes a tactical affair with plenty left for the finish, allowing the closers to unleash their strongest asset - a finishing kick. Quality hold-up performers with fresh legs will sweep past the leaders in the final furlong.

Jack DoyenPalawan Du MazetIdeallkoJack's A Legend

Front Runner Survives

20% probability

If Begin The Luck gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear approaching the last fence

The 10-year-old's proven course form and love of testing ground allows him to maintain his advantage to the line. His 2023 course victory proves he can execute this tactical scenario successfully.

Begin The LuckJack DoyenPalawan Du MazetIdeallko

Prominent Tracker Prevails

10% probability

If one of the prominent runners applies early pressure to Begin The Luck and softens him up

The pace becomes more genuine throughout, suiting a horse that can sit handy and has the class to respond when the race develops. This tactical battle removes the pure front-runner advantage.

Tractor JackDevilsrollthediceJack DoyenBegin The Luck

Outsider Surprise Package

5% probability

If the classier horses fail to handle the testing conditions or make jumping errors

A lightly-weighted runner benefits from the handicap system and gets first run on the fancied horses. The soft ground levels the playing field for lesser lights.

Firefly LaneDevilsrollthediceJack's A LegendTractor Jack

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Begin The Luck must be given early respect as his front-running style perfectly suits the likely tactical scenario

WATCH

Jack's A Legend carries significant layoff risk returning after 311 days with an inexperienced conditional jockey

NOTE

Tractor Jack's stamina limitations could be exposed if the pace becomes searching in the closing stages

WATCH

Ideallko needs to show early enthusiasm from his hold-up position after a disappointing recent campaign

NOTE

Palawan Du Mazet's jumping must be monitored as he attempts to replicate his recent soft ground success

3:10 — South West Rail Solutions Ltd. Mares' Handicap Hurdle

2m1f · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners

Green Sky likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Northern Air led; the map had Green Sky in front.

Reel Orange won at 3.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Green Sky

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

ParikarmaJackelineReel OrangeEskimo SamGetarose

Hold Up · 1

Northern Air

Green Sky appears the only natural front runner in this field of hold-up performers, meaning she can dictate terms without pressure early on. The sustained gallop over 2m1f on soft ground will test stamina reserves, with most runners looking to come from off the pace in the final half-mile. Northern Air and Parikarma have proven soft ground form and should be positioned to strike late. This pace scenario strongly favours hold-up horses with proven stamina who can finish powerfully when others tire.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Late Kick Decides

55% probability

If Green Sky sets sustainable fractions and the field bunches turning for home

The patient hold-up horses get their ideal setup as Green Sky's early work pays dividends for closers. Northern Air and Parikarma can time their runs perfectly when the pace lifts in the final quarter-mile.

Northern AirParikarmaReel OrangeJackeline

Front Runner Dominates

25% probability

If Green Sky gets soft early sectionals and has enough left to resist late challenges

Her 68 TopSpeed gives her tactical speed to kick clear when the pace quickens, holding off pursuers who leave their runs too late. The patient approach backfires as she controls the race from pillar to post.

Green SkyReel OrangeNorthern AirParikarma

Stamina Test Develops

12% probability

If the soft ground and sustained gallop finds out horses with fitness or stamina doubts

Northern Air's 94-day break or Jackeline's recent pulled-up efforts prove costly as only the fittest survive. Parikarma's course and distance win and Reel Orange's recent run give them the edge in a grueling finish.

ParikarmaReel OrangeNorthern AirGreen Sky

Pace Collapse Chaos

8% probability

If Green Sky goes too fast early or multiple horses make premature moves

The race becomes a tactical mess with horses getting in each other's way as the pace dies completely. An outsider like Eskimo Sam or Getarose benefits from the scrappy finish when class horses disappoint.

Eskimo SamGetaroseJackelineReel Orange

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Green Sky's early fractions will determine if her front-running tactics pay off or set up the race for late closers with superior stamina reserves.

WATCH

Northern Air's fitness after 94 days layoff could be crucial given his hold-up style requires a strong finish to be effective.

NOTE

Jackeline's jumping and enthusiasm after being pulled up twice recently will reveal if she's ready to compete at this level again.

WATCH

The soft ground conditions may expose any horses lacking peak fitness, particularly those who haven't raced recently like Parikarma (26 days).

NOTE

Jockey Imogen Mathias's 7lb claim on Parikarma could prove valuable in a tight finish given the mare's solid course and distance record.

3:49 — Happy 45th Birthday Andy Hurtley Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m5f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners

Bumpy Evans to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Scarface won at 3.75 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bumpy Evans

Prominent · 3

TahmurasScarfaceRoyal Jewel

Midfield · 3

Hardy Du SeuilCalimysticNickelforce

Hold Up · 1

Kap Ouest

Bumpy Evans is the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate terms from the flag, likely getting an easy lead with no pressure from the prominent-racing pack of Tahmuras, Scarface, Royal Jewel, Calimystic, Nickelforce and Hardy Du Seuil. With only Kap Ouest sitting back as a hold-up horse, this creates a tactical scenario where the front-runner can control fractions without being harassed early. The sustainable pace followed by a sprint finish strongly favours prominent racers who can track Bumpy Evans and pounce late, rather than the lone hold-up horse who faces a positioning nightmare.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Trackers Pounce

45% probability

If Bumpy Evans sets uncontested fractions and the prominent horses get ideal tracking positions

The lack of early pace pressure allows trackers to conserve energy before striking in the final half-mile. Horses like Calimystic and Royal Jewel benefit from their class and tactical positioning.

CalimysticRoyal JewelScarfaceTahmuras

Front Runner Wire-To-Wire

30% probability

If Bumpy Evans gets completely uncontested fractions and the prominent pack fails to organise

With no early harassment, the leader builds an unassailable advantage that the prominent horses cannot reel in despite their quality. His 5-8 chase record proves his front-running effectiveness.

Bumpy EvansNickelforceRoyal JewelCalimystic

Hold-Up Horse Surge

15% probability

If the pace becomes truly crawling and Kap Ouest gets a perfect run through

The slow early gallop sets up perfectly for the lone closer to utilise superior finishing kick. His recent Exeter win shows he has the acceleration to exploit tactical scenarios.

Kap OuestHardy Du SeuilCalimysticScarface

Pace Collapse Scramble

10% probability

If Bumpy Evans goes too slow early then quickens dramatically turning for home

The sudden injection of pace catches several prominent horses flat-footed, creating a messy finish where fresher horses prevail. Late tactical moves determine the outcome rather than sustained galloping.

Hardy Du SeuilNickelforceKap OuestBumpy Evans

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bumpy Evans setting fractions too slow early then injecting sudden pace - will catch prominent horses unprepared for gear change

WATCH

Kap Ouest's positioning through the early stages as the lone hold-up horse in a slowly-run race could be crucial

NOTE

Calimystic and Royal Jewel tracking positions behind Bumpy Evans - whoever gets first run may prove decisive

WATCH

The prominent pack organising too early to pressure Bumpy Evans could backfire and set race up for Kap Ouest

NOTE

Ground conditions affecting jumping rhythm at the final three fences where races often change hands

4:20 — South West Rail Solutions Ltd. Handicap Hurdle

3m2½f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners

Call Me Legend likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Striking A Pose and Crossgales King led; the map had Call Me Legend in front.

Top Guy won at 4.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Call Me Legend

Prominent · 2

Rickety BridgeCrossgales King

Midfield · 3

Sam's AmourStriking A PoseWalk Tall

Hold Up · 2

Kruger ParkTop Guy

Call Me Legend will set a sustainable pace from the front with his prominent style, likely joined by fellow prominent runners Striking A Pose, Rickety Bridge, and Crossgales King in the early positions. The 3m2½f distance and good to soft ground will create a searching test of stamina rather than speed, with the pace likely steady early before quickening from three out. With multiple prominent types and limited early pace pressure, this sets up perfectly for the hold-up horses Top Guy and Walk Tall to deliver late challenges. This race shape strongly favours hold-up performers who can stay the extended trip and finish fastest.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Prevail

60% probability

If the prominent runners go too hard early trying to establish position

The sustained pace over this stamina-sapping trip will find out the leaders, allowing the patient hold-up types to sweep past in the final half-mile. Top Guy and Walk Tall are perfectly positioned to exploit this tactical advantage with their proven finishing kicks.

Top GuyWalk TallCall Me LegendCrossgales King

Prominent Runner Dominates

25% probability

If Call Me Legend or Crossgales King can dictate fractions without serious pressure

One of the prominent runners will get first run on their rivals and prove too strong in the straight, with their early positioning advantage proving decisive. The hold-up horses may find too much to do over this extended distance.

Call Me LegendCrossgales KingTop GuyStriking A Pose

Pace Collapse Scramble

10% probability

If the early pace is unusually slow with multiple prominent runners checking each other

The race becomes a sprint finish where any horse with tactical speed can win, regardless of preferred running style. This chaos scenario opens the door for any runner with residual ability on their current mark.

Striking A PoseRickety BridgeSam's AmourTop Guy

Stamina Test Elimination

5% probability

If the ground rides softer than advertised and the pace is genuinely strong throughout

Only the most genuine stayers will be in contention at the business end, with several runners failing to see out the trip. The race becomes about pure stamina rather than tactical positioning.

Walk TallTop GuyCall Me LegendCrossgales King

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sam's Amour showing any signs of distress given her previous bleeding episode and long absence from racing

WATCH

Striking A Pose's jumping and travelling - any reluctance or sketchy leaping could signal another pull-up

NOTE

Call Me Legend's position turning for home - if he's still there with a chance he could prove hard to peg back

WATCH

Market moves on Walk Tall who has ability but hasn't shown it over hurdles yet

NOTE

How aggressively the prominent runners go early - if they crawl it becomes anyone's race

4:55 — Newton Abbot On Course Bookmakers Fillies' "Junior" National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race)

2m1f · Soft · CLS4 · 14 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 4 April 2026.

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