Archive›Newton Abbot · 6 May 2026

Newton Abbot

6 May 2026 · 6 races

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1:45 — Kauto The King Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m5f · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners

Centara to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Etalon and Centara led, as the map showed.

Somespring Special won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Centara

Prominent · 2

Western GeneralVentura Highway

Midfield · 2

Light N StrikeSomespring Special

Hold Up · 2

EtalonHercule Du Seuil

Centara is the only confirmed front runner in this seven-horse field and should be allowed to dictate terms from the start without pressure. Western General and Ventura Highway as prominent racers will sit within striking distance but won't challenge for the lead early. The lack of genuine pace-setters means Centara can control fractions over the 2m5f trip, setting up a tactical affair where the hold-up horses (Hercule Du Seuil, Etalon, Light N Strike, Somespring Special) will need to rely on finishing kicks. This race shape strongly favours the front runner and prominent racers who can secure good positions without expending energy early.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Centara Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Centara maintains his usual front-running style without pressure from the field

The Paul Nicholls runner can dictate conservative fractions and kick clear approaching the last, with Western General best placed to follow him through. Both horses avoid the traffic problems that will plague the hold-up brigade.

CentaraWestern GeneralVentura HighwayEtalon

Hold-Up Heroes Rally

30% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish from the back straight

The class horses Hercule Du Seuil and Etalon can unleash their superior finishing speed despite poor positioning early. Harry Cobden and Harry Skelton will need to thread their mounts through traffic but have the pace to reel in the leaders.

EtalonHercule Du SeuilLight N StrikeSomespring Special

Tactical Positioning Battle

15% probability

If Western General and Ventura Highway press forward to challenge Centara for the lead

The increased pace will set up the race for a closer who can stay on strongly, with Etalon's proven class and Harry Skelton's tactical nous coming to the fore. Light N Strike could benefit as the forgotten horse with legitimate claims off his current mark.

EtalonLight N StrikeWestern GeneralHercule Du Seuil

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If Centara goes too slow and the field bunches up turning for home

A cavalry charge develops where track position and luck in running become crucial, potentially favouring Somespring Special who can quicken despite her recent poor form. Western General's prominent style gives him the best chance to avoid trouble.

Somespring SpecialWestern GeneralVentura HighwayCentara

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Centara may not handle the soft ground despite past good to soft form - any early signs of struggling could collapse the pace scenario

WATCH

Western General and Ventura Highway might press forward more aggressively than expected, creating genuine pace pressure on Centara

WATCH

Hercule Du Seuil and Etalon both returning from long breaks - watch for signs of ring-rustiness in the early stages

NOTE

Light N Strike making stable debut for Mickey Bowen after 193 days off - market support would be significant given the circumstances

NOTE

Somespring Special's recent poor form masks her October Chepstow win - any confident riding from Ben Jones could signal a return to form

2:15 — Racing To School Reaches 25 Years Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m5½f · Soft · CLS4 · 10 runners

Lead contested: At Sunrise v Alberts BayHISTORIC

How it ran

River Don led; the map had At Sunrise and Alberts Bay in front.

Outmaster won at 1.20 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

At SunriseAlberts Bay

Prominent · 2

Bold StepDouble Tiger

Midfield · 3

River DonOutmasterJubertilee

Hold Up · 3

Name Me NicelyLirone Du SeuilStyle De Folie

At Sunrise and Alberts Bay will contest the early lead, with both confirmed front runners likely to set a solid gallop over this staying trip on soft ground. Bold Step and Double Tiger should track prominently behind the leaders, while the hold-up horses Name Me Nicely, Lirone Du Seuil and Style De Folie will need the pace to collapse to get competitive. The combination of two keen leaders and testing conditions should create a strong pace that will find out the stamina reserves. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and those with proven stamina, as the likely strong gallop will stretch the field and expose any lack of staying power in the hold-up brigade.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Suits Prominents

45% probability

If At Sunrise and Alberts Bay duel from the start creating a searching gallop

The honest pace plays into the hands of those tracking just behind, allowing them to strike when the leaders weaken in the final half-mile. Bold Step and Double Tiger are perfectly positioned to capitalize when the front pair tire.

Bold StepDouble TigerOutmasterRiver Don

Leaders Dominate Throughout

30% probability

If At Sunrise finds his best form and gets an uncontested lead

The front runner can dictate terms and kick clear when the field comes under pressure, with any chasing pack struggling to reel him in on the testing ground. At Sunrise's stamina credentials shine through despite his long absence.

At SunriseAlberts BayBold StepName Me Nicely

Hold-Up Horse Strikes Late

15% probability

If the early pace collapses and becomes pedestrian

Name Me Nicely and Lirone Du Seuil can use their class advantage to sweep past a tiring field in the final furlong. The lack of early pace allows the hold-up horses to conserve energy for a devastating late surge.

Name Me NicelyLirone Du SeuilBold StepDouble Tiger

Outsider Benefits From Chaos

10% probability

If the race falls apart with multiple fallers or a messy pace

The lightly raced improvers like Outmaster and River Don can capitalize on a muddling race where class tells less than stamina and jumping. Paul Nicholls' Outmaster particularly appeals if getting a soft lead to aim at.

OutmasterRiver DonJubertileeStyle De Folie

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Alberts Bay's fitness after 573-day layoff could see him fold quickly if forced to make the running

WATCH

Name Me Nicely needs a strong pace to be effective but may get outpaced if the tempo becomes frantic

NOTE

Watch Outmaster's jumping early as any mistakes will end hopes for the lightly raced Nicholls runner

WATCH

At Sunrise's headgear first-time suggests ability but 147-day break makes fitness a question mark

NOTE

River Don's amateur rider could prove costly if precise jumping is required in the home straight

2:45 — No Drama This End Club Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m2f · Soft · HCAP · 5 runners

Elysian Knight likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Storminhome led; the map had Elysian Knight in front.

Rickety Bridge won at 7.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Elysian Knight

Prominent · 1

Storminhome

Midfield · 3

Rickety BridgeAstronomic ViewDyno Dave

Hold Up · 0

None

With all five runners carrying prominent/front-running styles, this will be a genuine battle for the early lead between Elysian Knight, Storminhome, and Astronomic View. The pace will be honest from the outset over this stamina-sapping 3m2f trip on soft ground, with no confirmed hold-up horses to allow any breathers. The sustained gallop will create a true test of stamina where tactical positioning matters less than pure staying power. This race shape strongly favours the most genuine stayers who can maintain their gallop to the line, penalising horses dependent on tactical pace changes.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Genuine Staying Test

55% probability

If the pace is honest throughout with multiple leaders

The sustained gallop becomes a war of attrition where only the truest stayers survive. Horses with proven stamina reserves and recent form over extended trips will prevail when others weaken.

StorminhomeAstronomic ViewElysian KnightDyno Dave

Early Pace Collapse

25% probability

If the front-runners go too hard early and capitulate

The aggressive early pace backfires as leaders tie up, allowing the best-balanced horse to inherit. Fresh legs and tactical awareness from the jockey become crucial factors.

Dyno DaveRickety BridgeAstronomic ViewElysian Knight

Skelton Tactical Masterclass

12% probability

If Harry Skelton times Storminhome's challenge perfectly

The champion jockey uses his mount's class and recent blinkers improvement to devastating effect. Storminhome's near-miss last time translates to breakthrough victory under patient riding.

StorminhomeElysian KnightAstronomic ViewDyno Dave

Nicholls Revival Special

8% probability

If Rickety Bridge shows dramatic improvement from his yard

The master trainer's ability to rejuvenate horses produces a surprise performance. The Henderson-trained runner's proven class emerges despite recent poor form.

Rickety BridgeDyno DaveStorminhomeAstronomic View

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Storminhome with Harry Skelton could time his challenge perfectly if the pace is strong early

WATCH

Elysian Knight's jumping under pressure given his recent fence struggles this season

WATCH

Astronomic View's stamina reserves in the final furlong given his mixed recent finishing efforts

NOTE

Rickety Bridge for any market confidence given Paul Nicholls' ability to improve horses dramatically

NOTE

Early pace battle between the front three which could set up the race for a closer or strong traveller

3:15 — Welcoming Newton Abbot Business Club Members Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m½f · Soft · HCAP · 5 runners

Gower Prince to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Gower Prince led, as the map showed.

Cobbler's Boy won at 1.83 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Gower Prince

Prominent · 2

Lightning FlashFirst Angel

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Cobbler's BoyNorthern Air

Gower Prince will dictate from the front with no other confirmed pace-setters in this small field, likely creating a moderate tempo over the first half of this 2m½f trip. First Angel and Lightning Flash will track prominently behind the leader, while Northern Air and Cobbler's Boy will settle further back as hold-up horses. With only one natural front-runner and no early pace pressure, Gower Prince can control the gallop and save energy for the finish. This race shape clearly favours the prominent racers who can position close enough to strike when the pace inevitably quickens, as the hold-up horses may find insufficient pace to close into.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Power Play

45% probability

If First Angel or Lightning Flash can track Gower Prince at comfortable fractions and stay in touch turning for home.

The moderate early pace allows the prominent runners to conserve energy while staying close enough to pounce when the race develops in earnest. Both have the class and tactical speed to exploit this positioning advantage over horses coming from further back.

First AngelLightning FlashGower PrinceNorthern Air

Gower Prince Wire Job

30% probability

If Gower Prince can dictate his ideal fractions and find enough in reserve when challenged in the straight.

The uncontested lead allows him to save energy early and his recent Market Rasen second suggests he's back to form with the hood back on. The lack of early pace pressure plays directly into his tactical preference for controlling races.

Gower PrinceLightning FlashFirst AngelCobbler's Boy

Late Closer Surge

15% probability

If the pace becomes truly dawdling and Northern Air or Cobbler's Boy get the strong gallop they need from the back.

The hold-up pair would benefit from a truly-run race where they can unleash their finishing kicks, but the likely lack of early pace works against their preferred racing pattern. Both need others to create the tempo they require to be effective.

Northern AirCobbler's BoyLightning FlashFirst Angel

Pace Collapse Scramble

10% probability

If Gower Prince stops quickly in front and the race becomes a sprint from the final fence.

The entire complexion changes if the leader empties out, turning it into a dash where any horse with a turn of foot can capitalise regardless of early position. This scenario levels the playing field but seems unlikely given recent form evidence.

Lightning FlashFirst AngelNorthern AirGower Prince

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lightning Flash must prove the Ludlow fall hasn't affected his jumping confidence, especially at the business end of the race.

WATCH

Gower Prince's stamina for this trip on testing ground after his recent layoff, particularly if forced to go faster than ideal early.

NOTE

Northern Air's fitness levels after 32 days off and whether Tom Broughton can get him into contention from his hold-up style.

WATCH

First Angel's ability to handle the step up in class after his long break, given his advancing years at 10.

NOTE

Cobbler's Boy's jumping under pressure if he gets competitive, given his recent struggles to complete over fences.

3:50 — Par Inn Celebrating 50 Next Year Mares' Handicap Hurdle

2m1f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Reel Orange and Riviera Walk led, as the map showed.

Belle Le Grand won at 2.00 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Riviera WalkFuture BucksBelle Le Grand

Prominent · 3

Best NightGhost DancingMiss Denver

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Reel OrangeBabychino

Riviera Walk, Belle Le Grand, and Future Bucks will ensure a strong early gallop with all three natural front-runners unwilling to give ground. The pace will be honest throughout the 2m1f trip on testing ground, with the leaders likely stringing out the field early. Any that get detached from the main group will struggle to make up ground in the conditions. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and those with proven stamina reserves who can track the pace and pounce late, penalising hold-up horses who rely on a finishing kick.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Collapse

45% probability

If the three front-runners go too fast early and tie up in the soft ground.

The leaders will weaken significantly in the final half-mile, allowing patient types to pick up the pieces. Hold-up horses like Babychino and Reel Orange benefit from the pace meltdown despite the tactical disadvantage.

BabychinoReel OrangeGhost DancingBest Night

Sustained Gallop Test

35% probability

If the pace is strong but sustainable, creating a true staying test.

The honest gallop will find out the stamina-shy and favour those with proven endurance over the trip. Best Night and Ghost Dancing can track the pace and have the engine to sustain their effort to the line.

Best NightGhost DancingFuture BucksBelle Le Grand

Front Runner Dominance

15% probability

If one of the leaders gets first run and the pace is more measured than expected.

The early leader will have enough left to resist late challengers on ground that makes closing difficult. Belle Le Grand or Future Bucks could dominate from the front with their class edge.

Belle Le GrandFuture BucksBest NightRiviera Walk

Tactical Muddle

5% probability

If the three leaders hesitate early, creating a stop-start pace.

The race becomes a sprint finish where horse with the best turn of foot prevails regardless of usual tactics. Ghost Dancing's class could tell in a messy tactical affair.

Ghost DancingBest NightReel OrangeBabychino

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Future Bucks was pulled up on her last start and if she shows similar reluctance early, it removes a key pace angle.

WATCH

Watch Riviera Walk's inexperienced 5lb claimer Benjamin Macey in the early pace battle against seasoned professionals.

NOTE

Best Night ran just 14 days ago and this quick turnaround could either have her spot-on or leave her vulnerable late.

WATCH

Belle Le Grand carries top weight of 168lbs and hasn't won since May, making her task tough despite her natural pace advantage.

NOTE

The soft ground could play more testing than expected given Newton Abbot's current good to soft official going.

4:20 — Sky Sports Racing Handicap Hurdle

3m2½f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Striking A Pose likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Striking A Pose and Despereaux led, as the map showed.

Supreme Yeats won at 4.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Striking A Pose

Prominent · 3

BaltrayDespereauxSam's Amour

Midfield · 2

JuggernautI Am Spider Man

Hold Up · 3

Supreme YeatsAlan BresilMister Barclay

Striking A Pose will dictate from the front having won making all here three weeks ago, with Juggernaut, Baltray and Despereaux settling prominently behind him. The sustainable gallop will allow hold-up horses Mister Barclay, Supreme Yeats and I Am Spider Man to get into contention turning for home. Over this extended 3m2½f trip on soft ground, stamina becomes paramount and the genuine pace will set up perfectly for closers. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can stay the trip and finish powerfully.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

45% probability

If the early pace is genuine but not overly strong

The stamina test exposes the prominent racers in the final half-mile while the hold-up brigade arrive with late surges. Mister Barclay's class and Supreme Yeats' Skelton polish prove decisive.

Mister BarclaySupreme YeatsI Am Spider ManAlan Bresil

Front Runner Sustains

25% probability

If Striking A Pose gets an easy lead and dictates throughout

The 10-year-old uses his course experience to control the tempo and kicks clear before the closers can mount their challenges. His reduced weight and winning form here prove crucial.

Striking A PoseDespereauxJuggernautBaltray

Prominent Tracker Strikes

20% probability

If the pace collapses early and becomes stop-start

Juggernaut benefits from his prominent position to strike in the straight when the race comes alive. His recent Stratford second over this trip and Honeyball's form edge carry him home.

JuggernautDespereauxSam's AmourBaltray

Stamina Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If the soft ground and trip finds out multiple runners

Several runners fail to see out the extended distance creating a messy finish. The most genuine stayer from those left standing prevails in a weak time.

Alan BresilI Am Spider ManDespereauxSupreme Yeats

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Supreme Yeats market moves given his well-handicapped status despite recent poor form

WATCH

Striking A Pose early position - if he gets an uncontested lead he'll be very hard to peg back

NOTE

Mister Barclay fitness after 178-day break, needs to be sharp from the start

WATCH

Any significant pace collapse early will hurt the hold-up horses' chances dramatically

NOTE

Juggernaut jumping - needs to be slick at his hurdles to maintain prominent position

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 6 May 2026.

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