2:22 — British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)
1m2f · Good · NOV · 5 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:52 — EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
6f · Good · CLS4 · 5 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:27 — When You Wish Upon A Star Race Handicap Stakes
2m2f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners
Al Sayah likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Oceanides led; the map had Al Sayah in front.
Al Sayah won at 1.73 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Al Sayah
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 2
Regally BlondeOceanides
Hold Up · 2
MerrijigSimiyann
Al Sayah is the sole confirmed front-runner in this five-horse field over 2m2f at Nottingham, and with no genuine pace rival to challenge him, he should be permitted to dictate a controlled, sustainable tempo from the outset. The three hold-up types — Merrijig, Simiyann, and the two redistributed midfielders Regally Blonde and Oceanides — will track at a respectful distance, meaning the race is likely to develop as a steady-pace procession until the final turn shakes things loose. Crucially, Regally Blonde and Oceanides are true hold-up horses pushed into mapped midfield positions because the field contains more closers than the shape can accommodate at the rear, so neither is likely to actually sit that prominently; their natural home is off the pace. This shape overwhelmingly favours hold-up horses with a powerful late finish, as Al Sayah's uncontested lead sets a tempo that should leave plenty in the tank for one genuine stayer to sweep past late.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Al Sayah Controls, Closers Finish
68% probability
If Al Sayah dictates a steady, uncontested tempo and the race develops into a one-paced slog over the final half-mile.
Al Sayah rolls along at his own pace with nothing to challenge him early, conserving enough energy to be competitive entering the straight, while one or two of the hold-up horses produce a measured late run on the good ground. Merrijig and Simiyann, both confirmed hold-up types with solid form on good going, are best placed to benefit from this controlled-pace scenario.
MerrijigSimiyannAl SayahRegally Blonde
B
Pace Collapses, Late Surge
16% probability
If Al Sayah sets an overly dawdling early gallop and the race becomes a sprint finish off a crawl.
A near-stationary early pace turns the race into a tactical affair, with the field bunched heading into the straight and jockeys forced to make their moves earlier than ideal. In this scenario Merrijig's experienced handler and Jason Watson's tactical nous give them an edge, while Simiyann risks being outpaced by a sudden injection of speed.
MerrijigRegally BlondeSimiyannAl Sayah
C
Al Sayah Steals It Wire-to-Wire
10% probability
If Al Sayah's uncontested lead allows him to build a significant advantage that the hold-up horses cannot reel in from a standing start.
With a generous OR drop and a visor working in his favour, Al Sayah builds an unchallenged lead at a pace just quick enough to stretch the field without burning himself out, and the hold-up horses simply run out of ground in the straight. His recent win at this trip on good ground is the key form reference, and Neil Mulholland's runners have form when fresh horses are being aimed at a specific target.
Al SayahRegally BlondeMerrijigSimiyann
D
Hold-Up Horses Misfired
6% probability
If the redistributed horses fail to travel smoothly and the race defaults to a two-horse finish between Al Sayah and the best-placed hold-up type.
Oceanides, the youngest and least experienced runner at this marathon trip, fails to settle or gets outpaced as the field strings out, leaving Regally Blonde and the backmarkers too much to do. This compressed, messy scenario suits a horse that can travel mid-pack and produce one clean burst, making Merrijig the likeliest beneficiary given his recent course-relevant form.
MerrijigAl SayahSimiyannOceanides
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Al Sayah is completely alone on the front end — if he is allowed to bowl along unchallenged at a sensible tempo for this trip, his lead could prove very difficult to pull back over 2m2f with only four horses in pursuit.
WATCH
Merrijig's last two runs have both been on good or good-to-firm going over shorter trips; watch whether Jason Watson commits early or waits, as the hold-up play relies on a strong enough gallop to run into.
WATCH
Oceanides has never raced beyond 12f and has produced no wins or places on comparable going — if the pace is steady she could be outpaced in the straight before her hold-up style can deliver any impact.
NOTE
With four hold-up horses in a five-runner field, watch for a crowded finish entering the straight — multiple horses making their runs simultaneously could cause interference or result in one of them getting squeezed for a run.
NOTE
The going report is listed as unknown throughout, so monitor any late ground update before the race — Al Sayah's form on soft going is considerably weaker, and a change in conditions could materially alter the pace dynamic.|
4:02 — XMA Wish Race "Confined" Handicap Stakes (For Horses Who Have Not Won More Than One Race)
6f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Slot likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Slot led, as the map showed.
Robert Anstruther won at 2.62 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Slot
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 5
Night MissionRobert AnstrutherBlack MissileRoushamLiquid Cooled
Hold Up · 2
BallybunionWhizzy Dizzy
Slot is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no other genuine pace horse to push it along, is set to bowl along in front at a controlled, sustainable tempo over this 6f on good turf at Nottingham. The field is loaded with hold-up types — Black Missile, Rousham, Liquid Cooled, Robert Anstruther and Ballybunion all prefer to race off the pace — but the map cannot place them all at the rear; several will be shuffled into midfield positions against their natural inclinations. This field holds more hold-up types than can genuinely get to the back of the field, with Rousham and Ballybunion the most likely to actually secure a prominent tracking position given their recent course and distance evidence, while the others will be forced wider and higher than ideal. A modest, controlled pace set by Slot strongly favours horses who can track closely and pounce in the straight — prominent racers or those who can sit just off the leader — rather than pure closers who need a fast pace to reel in.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Slot Controls, Closers Late
58% probability
If Slot sets a comfortable solo lead and holds enough tempo to string the field out before fading in the final furlong.
Slot dictates from the front at a sustainable clip, compressing the field as closers get a sensible target to aim at in the final two furlongs; horses who can track in second or third — like Rousham or Ballybunion who may sit closer than their style suggests — are ideally placed to pounce.
RoushamBallybunionNight MissionWhizzy Dizzy
B
Slot Outstays Field
20% probability
If Slot's controlled pace is slow enough that it conserves enough energy to hold on all the way to the line.
Slot bowls along uncontested and never expends enough energy to stop, meaning the closers arrive too late having been denied a true target pace; a front-runner winning a slowly-run sprint off a low OR is entirely plausible.
SlotNight MissionRoushamBallybunion
C
Pace Collapse, Hold-Ups Pounce
14% probability
If Slot is pressed more than expected by runners shuffled forward against their nature, creating a faster pace that burns out the leaders.
A slightly hotter gallop than anticipated could see the front end fold inside the final furlong, releasing hold-up types who manage to find clear air; however, because most of the true closers are redistributed and racing out of role, the benefit is muted and the outcome messy.
If traffic problems and jostling among the large group of misplaced hold-up types create a chaotic straight, with the winner threading through late.
The redistribution of so many hold-up horses into midfield creates potential for interference and blocked runs in the final two furlongs; the winner in this shape needs a clean passage and a sharp turn of foot, but the probability is low because the moderate pace does not set this up naturally.
Night MissionRoushamBallybunionWhizzy Dizzy
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Slot (Cam Hardie) will control the pace entirely unchallenged — watch whether it quickens or simply keeps the same tempo in the final 2f, as the outcome of the whole race hinges on that single variable.|
WATCH
Rousham and Ballybunion are the two hold-up horses best-placed to track Slot more closely than their labels suggest — watch their early positioning out of the stalls as a key race-shape indicator.|
WATCH
Whizzy Dizzy returns after 126 days for Clive Cox and has no relevant good-ground form; watch for any market move that might signal Haydock-style sharpness behind the scenes.|
NOTE
The cluster of redistributed hold-up types (Black Missile, Robert Anstruther, Liquid Cooled) will be jostling for the same midfield ground — watch for crowding and checked runs on the turn into the straight, which could compromise several runners simultaneously.|
4:40 — PKF Wish Race Classified Stakes
5f · Good · DEFAULT · 9 runners
Jackie Brown likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Antiphon led; the map had Jackie Brown in front.
Sir Benedict won at 4.33 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Jackie Brown is the sole confirmed front-runner and should lead from the outset at a sustainable, uncontested gallop over this 5f on good turf at Nottingham. With no rival likely to seriously dispute the lead, Jackie Brown can control tempo from the front and potentially produce a flat, even-paced affair rather than a true end-to-end test. The field behind is overwhelmingly populated by hold-up horses — Baileys Ontherocks, Antiphon, Captain Kinsella, Rinky Tinky Tinky, and Desert Master are all genuine hold-up types redistributed into midfield slots because there simply is not enough room at the back for all of them to operate naturally. This race shape, with one unhurried pace-setter and a wall of closers competing for ground late, strongly favours the horse with the best tactical awareness from a prominent or stalking position, particularly Washington Heir, Ganthorpe, and Sir Benedict, who can sit closest to the pace without being pushed out of their preferred roles.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Jackie Brown Dictates Unchallenged
58% probability
If Jackie Brown secures a clean lead and is allowed to regulate a comfortable, unforced tempo throughout.
Jackie Brown sets an honest but controlled gallop and the hold-up horses fail to generate enough closing momentum against a pace that is never truly fast; the horse that tracks closest and travels smoothly into the straight reaps the reward.
Jackie BrownWashington HeirGanthorpeSir Benedict
B
Prominent Stalker Pounces
22% probability
If a horse travelling just off the leader's quarters quickens sharply when Jackie Brown is done in the final furlong.
The controlled pace suits a prominent tracker who is saving energy through the race and can sprint past a tiring leader; Washington Heir's good-ground record and Sir Benedict's consistent placed form over 5f on similar surfaces make them the profiles to thrive here.
Washington HeirSir BenedictGanthorpeJackie Brown
C
Late Closers Finish Fast
13% probability
If Jackie Brown sets a genuinely strong early clip that burns off rivals and leaves the closing ground opening up in the final 100 yards.
A pace collapse late could allow the redistributed hold-up horses to pick up the pieces, but most of them are racing away from their natural position and are unlikely to produce a true flying finish; Desert Master and Ganthorpe have the best recent good-ground evidence among the closers.
If the pace is so moderate that the race turns into a sprint for home with no meaningful separation until the last 100 yards.
In a muddled finish where positional advantage counts for little, any of the redistributed midfield horses could stumble into a place, but the lack of genuine pace and uncertain going reports make this the least structured and least predictable shape.
Jackie Brown is the sole pace-setter and if it gets a clean lead, the entire race shape pivots around whether it can sustain that gallop to the line — any early bump or rival upsetting its jump could fundamentally alter the tempo.
WATCH
The going is listed as unknown at Nottingham across all reports — if conditions are softer than anticipated, horses with soft-ground form such as Jackie Brown and Ganthorpe may be advantaged while good-ground specialists face an unexpected test.
WATCH
Captain Kinsella returns after a 123-day absence with a record of zero wins or places from four runs on good going — watch in-running for it to drop out quickly if the surface and freshness combine badly.
NOTE
Antiphon is flagged as fading in the finish and races off its preferred extreme hold-up position; if it is seen travelling well into the straight but stopping, that is relevant form evidence for future races rather than a winning move today.
NOTE
Desert Master has the most compelling recent good-ground evidence among the redistributed hold-up horses — two seconds including over 5f — and Cam Hardie's booking suggests connections expect a forward showing despite the positional compromise.
5:10 — Arthur Johnson & Sons Wish Race "Confined" Handicap Stakes (For Horses Which Have Not Won A Race In 2026)
1m2f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
No obvious leaderHISTORIC
How it ran
Brouhaha led.
Finally Escaped won at 3.75 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 0
None
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 4
RevichBrouhahaFinally EscapedNicolai
Hold Up · 2
Goldie TrickettToken Love
With every single runner in this six-horse field carrying a hold-up profile, there is no natural front-runner and no horse inclined to press on from the gates — the race will almost certainly crawl into the straight before erupting into a sprint finish over the final two furlongs. Goldie Trickett and Token Love are the two genuine hold-up types at the rear, while Revich, Finally Escaped, Brouhaha and Nicolai are all true hold-up horses redistributed into a midfield mapping because the field contains far more closers than the race shape can accommodate. The field holds more hold-up types than can all get their position; of those redistributed, Revich's proven good-ground form and Brouhaha's recency make them the most likely to press forward into a more prominent berth in the absence of any natural leader. The absence of any pace means this race will favour the horse with the best finishing kick from a prominent position once the sprint ignites — a horse that can travel handily in the tactical vacuum and produce a sustained effort into the Nottingham straight holds the key advantage.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sprint Finish From Midfield
42% probability
If the field crawls early and the race becomes a two-furlong dash, forcing a positional scramble
With no pace to run at, the entire field bunches and the race is decided on raw sprint ability from wherever horses can get to on the home turn; a horse able to sit handy in the tactical vacuum and produce a sharp, sustained kick holds the advantage here.
RevichToken LoveGoldie TrickettBrouhaha
B
Revich Dictates From Front
28% probability
If Revich or Brouhaha press on unopposed and set a modest but genuine gallop that never quickens sufficiently to flush out the closers
One of the redistributed hold-up types drifts forward to fill the vacuum and sets a steady tempo, meaning the race is run at their pace and they control the fractions into the straight; a horse with tactical versatility and good-ground form benefits most in this shape.
RevichBrouhahaFinally EscapedToken Love
C
Late Swooper Lands Blow
18% probability
If a genuine mid-race injection of pace by one horse strings the field out and creates a real target for late challengers
A stronger-than-expected gallop burns off the tactical types and leaves the race open for a horse switching off at the back and unleashing a late run; Goldie Trickett and Token Love, both true hold-up runners with some good-ground form, are best placed to benefit.
Goldie TrickettToken LoveRevichFinally Escaped
D
Attrition Grinds Them Down
12% probability
If the lack of pace combined with the 1m2f trip catches out the less exposed or less fit horses on their first run back after a long break
The stop-start nature of a race with no pace can be surprisingly taxing on horses returning from long absences such as Token Love (79 days) and Finally Escaped (84 days), and a horse with recent racecourse fitness like Brouhaha (16 days) picks up the pieces.
BrouhahaRevichGoldie TrickettNicolai
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Revich and Brouhaha are the most likely to press forward into the pace vacuum — watch the early exchanges to see which, if either, takes a lead, as the horse who controls the modest fractions from the front could dictate the result.
WATCH
Token Love (79 days) and Finally Escaped (84 days) are both returning from extended absences in a race where there is no honest gallop to get them into their rhythm — monitor their early movement for any signs of ring-rustiness.
WATCH
Nicolai's fade-in-finish flag combined with a 99-day break and a record of finishing last in all three starts makes him a horse to watch only as a market indicator — if backed, it suggests stable confidence that is hard to reconcile with the form.
NOTE
Goldie Trickett's jockey Callum Hutchinson will need to make a forward move on the home turn given the lack of pace; watch whether she is in a position to challenge entering the straight or still waiting for gaps that may not materialise.
NOTE
The going is listed as unknown across all six runners — any last-minute going update before racing could alter the tactical picture, particularly for horses like Revich whose profile is clearly tied to good ground.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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