Archive›Nottingham · 18 April 2026

Nottingham

18 April 2026 · 8 races

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Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

4:05 — British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

1m½f · Good · NOV · 13 runners

Deedaydiva likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Eskimo Pie led; the map had Deedaydiva in front.

Botagoz won at 4.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Deedaydiva

Prominent · 4

Eskimo PieBrighleeTashi DelekTiny Tiger

Midfield · 4

WithtearsinmyeyesShadidaMidnight SteppersConcealed Passion

Hold Up · 4

BotagozEcho ValleyPalace ArtoisCortado Girl

Deedaydiva emerges as the sole confirmed front runner in this field of 13 fillies, with supporting prominent runners Eskimo Pie, Brighlee and Tashi Delek unlikely to challenge for the early lead given their preferred positions. This creates a sustainable pace scenario where Deedaydiva can dictate terms without pressure, particularly over this stamina-testing 1m2½f trip at Nottingham. The relatively soft early pace will favor horses that can travel kindly and produce a finishing kick. This race shape strongly favors prominent runners and hold-up horses with a proven turn of foot, as they can position perfectly behind the uncontested leader before striking in the final quarter-mile.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

55% probability

If Deedaydiva gets an easy lead without early pressure from the prominent runners

The pace becomes too soft for closers to make up ground, allowing the front runner to control the race from pillar to post. Deedaydiva's proven form at this distance combined with the tactical advantage proves decisive.

DeedaydivaEskimo PieBotagozConcealed Passion

Prominent Tracker Strikes

25% probability

If one of the experienced prominent runners can sit perfect second behind Deedaydiva and outkick her

Eskimo Pie or Brighlee travel smoothly in behind the leader before producing superior acceleration in the final furlong. Their race fitness and proven ability at similar distances gives them the edge over the uncontested front runner.

Eskimo PieBrighleeDeedaydivaMidnight Steppers

Hold-Up Horse Powers Home

12% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely slow and the race develops into a sprint finish

Botagoz or one of the newcomers produces a sweeping late run that catches the early leaders in the dying strides. The stamina-sapping nature of Nottingham's finish suits horses with a strong turn of foot held up for one decisive effort.

BotagozConcealed PassionPalace ArtoisShadida

Newcomer Surprise Package

8% probability

If one of the lightly-raced fillies from top connections shows significant improvement from their debut runs

A well-bred newcomer from Beckett, Dunlop or Haggas stables demonstrates the ability that warranted their entry in this conditions race. Their fresher condition and untapped potential allows them to quicken past more exposed rivals.

Concealed PassionMidnight SteppersShadidaWithtearsinmyeyes

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Deedaydiva could steal this race if no prominent runner challenges her early lead and she gets uncontested fractions

WATCH

Eskimo Pie's recent form suggests she's ready for a big run and her prominent style could be perfectly suited to track the leader

NOTE

Concealed Passion and Midnight Steppers represent powerful connections and could show significant improvement from their lightly-raced profiles

WATCH

The 231-day layoff for Deedaydiva might tell late in the race despite her tactical advantage

NOTE

Botagoz showed winning form last time and the likely soft pace could set up perfectly for her hold-up style

4:37 — Racing TV Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Good · CLS4 · 10 runners

Frantic likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Frantic and Egotistical and Mehmas Engine led, as the map showed.

Bintaryana won at 4.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Frantic

Prominent · 1

Egotistical

Midfield · 5

Unique ProcedureSweet DesireElshieAlways PerfectNzuri

Hold Up · 3

Hen PartyMehmas EngineBintaryana

Frantic stands as the sole confirmed front-runner in this maiden fillies' contest, likely to dictate terms from the outset without early pressure. The prominent runners Egotistical may track closely, but with five hold-up horses including the experienced Hen Party and improving Mehmas Engine, this shapes as a race where the pace can build steadily. The majority of the field will be looking to come from off the pace, creating potential traffic problems in the straight. This tactical setup strongly favours horses that can secure good early positions and avoid the inevitable late scramble.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Frantic Controls Uncontested

45% probability

If Frantic gets an easy lead without early pressure from Egotistical

She can dictate a steady pace that suits her stamina reserves, making life difficult for the hold-up brigade who need a strong gallop. Her proven form at this trip gives her every chance to resist late challengers who leave themselves too much to do.

FranticEgotisticalSweet DesireElshie

Hold-Up Brigade Delivers

30% probability

If the pace becomes truly run and the hold-up horses get clear runs in the straight

The backmarkers can unleash their finishing kicks with Hen Party's consistent 6f form and Mehmas Engine's recent sharpness coming to the fore. This scenario requires both a strong pace and luck in running for multiple horses.

Hen PartyMehmas EngineBintaryanaAlways Perfect

Newcomers Exploit Experience Gap

15% probability

If one of the lightly-raced fillies shows significant improvement from their debuts

Sweet Desire with Silvestre De Sousa or Elshie under Jane Chapple-Hyam could have been well-schooled at home and ready to make their mark. The maiden nature of this contest leaves room for unexposed improvement.

Sweet DesireElshieUnique ProcedureFrantic

Tactical Chaos Benefits Patient

10% probability

If traffic problems and interference plague the finish in a bunched field

A horse like Bintaryana, despite her modest rating, could sneak through late gaps while others are stopped in their tracks. Patient jockeyship becomes crucial when multiple horses converge in the final furlong.

BintaryanaAlways PerfectMehmas EngineHen Party

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Frantic must be monitored early - if she faces unexpected pressure from Egotistical or others, her chances diminish significantly

WATCH

The hold-up horses Hen Party and Mehmas Engine need clear runs in the straight as traffic could easily compromise their finishing efforts

WATCH

Sweet Desire and Elshie are complete unknowns whose market moves could reveal stable intentions before the off

NOTE

Bintaryana has identical going experience which could prove crucial if conditions affect others differently

NOTE

Always Perfect's headgear application suggests trainer concerns but could unlock improvement if effective

5:12 — Burger King Flamin Champion Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Staniel Cay and Our Hero Matty led; the map had Seven Of Hearts and I'm Dan Dare and Takincareofbizness in front.

Staniel Cay won at 7.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Seven Of HeartsI'm Dan DareTakincareofbizness

Prominent · 3

Staniel CayRosieisme DarlingOur Hero Matty

Midfield · 6

No Claims BonusMuddy NoraAmakhalaMagnificent MelDoilookokayIndependent Angel

Hold Up · 5

Mereside SparkHellcatFaithful DreamMaid In DevonYesnia

Seven Of Hearts, I'm Dan Dare, and Takincareofbizness will blast off from the gates creating a fierce early gallop over this minimum trip. With three confirmed leaders in a 17-runner sprint handicap, the pace will be genuinely strong and likely unsustainable. The strong gallop will stretch the field and test stamina reserves even at 5f, with the front three likely to weaken in the final furlong. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can finish fast - the pace will set up perfectly for closers to sweep up the pieces.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If the three leaders go too fast early and fade

The strong pace will perfectly set up the closers who can stay on when the pace-setters weaken. Horses like Hellcat, Faithful Dream, and Mereside Spark can time their runs to perfection.

HellcatFaithful DreamMereside SparkDoilookokay

Prominent Tracker Wins

20% probability

If one horse can sit just off the pace without getting drawn in

A prominent runner can avoid the early burn-up while staying close enough to strike. Staniel Cay or Rosieisme Darling could get the perfect position behind the battling leaders.

Rosieisme DarlingStaniel CayOur Hero MattyHellcat

Front Runner Survives

10% probability

If one leader gets an easier time than expected and maintains stamina

Seven Of Hearts might get a softer lead if the other two pace-setters don't fire. With good tactical riding, a front runner could just hold on over this minimum distance.

Seven Of HeartsTakincareofbiznessI'm Dan DareStaniel Cay

Pace Collapses Completely

5% probability

If all three leaders go impossibly fast and completely collapse

The early pace becomes so fierce that even the closers struggle with the stop-start nature. A mid-division horse could sneak through when everything falls apart late.

Our Hero MattyNo Claims BonusMagnificent MelAmakhala

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Seven Of Hearts, I'm Dan Dare, and Takincareofbizness will create a furious early battle that could end their chances

WATCH

Mereside Spark returns from 98 days off while Hellcat has been absent for 215 days - both need to be race-ready

NOTE

Doilookokay has winning form and wears headgear today which could spark improvement

NOTE

Silvestre De Sousa rides Amakhala who gets in light but needs the pace to completely collapse

WATCH

Yesnia and Independent Angel both have patterns of fading in the finish despite their hold-up styles

5:45 — Burger King Winning Whopper Apprentice Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Miss Brazen likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Miss Brazen and Winchurch and Initial Blue led, as the map showed.

Miss Brazen won at 6.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Miss Brazen

Prominent · 2

Initial BlueLevel Up

Midfield · 3

High OpinionPapa Don't PreachJeany May

Hold Up · 2

WinchurchScent Of May

Miss Brazen looks the only confirmed front runner in this field and should dictate terms from the start without serious pressure. With most runners holding prominent/pressing positions (Level Up, Papa Don't Preach, High Opinion, Initial Blue, Jeany May), they'll track Miss Brazen in a cluster behind the leader rather than applying early heat. The pace will be sustainable rather than frantic over this minimum trip, with the real action coming in the final two furlongs when the prominent runners fan out to challenge. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can position close to the pace early, as hold-up horses Winchurch and Scent Of May will struggle to pick up the pieces from the rear in a race lacking genuine early speed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Wins

45% probability

If Miss Brazen gets an easy lead and isn't pressured early

She dictates comfortable fractions and has enough left to resist the late challengers who've given her too much rope. The lack of early pace plays perfectly into her hands as a front runner returning from a break.

Miss BrazenLevel UpPapa Don't Preach

Prominent Presser Strikes

35% probability

If the prominent runners get close enough to Miss Brazen without using too much energy

Initial Blue or Level Up can strike from their forward positions when Miss Brazen begins to tire in the final furlong. Their handy positions allow them to quicken without needing a clear run.

Initial BlueLevel UpMiss BrazenPapa Don't Preach

Hold Up Horse Picks Up

12% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely strong with multiple horses pressuring Miss Brazen early

Winchurch can benefit from a stronger tempo that sets up his hold-up style, picking off tired leaders. His recent third over six furlongs suggests he's in good form.

WinchurchScent Of MayHigh Opinion

Long Shot Benefits

8% probability

If the race develops into a messy scramble with multiple horses vying for the lead

Papa Don't Preach's recent win and good form could see him outbattle rivals in a tactical affair where his versatility helps. His lower weight becomes an asset in a slowly-run sprint.

Papa Don't PreachJeany MayHigh Opinion

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Miss Brazen must be watched for market confidence given her 183-day absence and inconsistent recent form

WATCH

Monitor if any of the prominent runners (Level Up, Initial Blue, Papa Don't Preach) attempt to press Miss Brazen early rather than tracking

NOTE

Watch Initial Blue's price movement as his recent win and good trainer form could attract support

WATCH

Winchurch needs a genuine pace to develop early to suit his hold-up style in this potentially tactical race

NOTE

Check if Papa Don't Preach's low weight and recent win generates late market interest

6:15 — Trot To Burger King Lady Bay Handicap

1m½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Highland Olly to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Highland Olly led, as the map showed.

Highland Olly won at 11.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Highland Olly

Prominent · 4

Oceans FiveInfluentialPulsar StarMoonjid

Midfield · 1

Eagle Day

Hold Up · 3

KokaneeCommander Of LifePension Pot

Highland Olly holds the sole lead with Influential, Moonjid, Pulsar Star and Oceans Five all wanting prominent positions in the early stages. This creates a compressed field with moderate early pace but crucial traffic problems entering the straight. The prominent congestion will force some runners wide or into trouble, while the hold-up horses Kokanee, Commander Of Life, Pension Pot and Eagle Day get clean runs from behind. This race shape strongly favours hold-up runners who can avoid the early scrimmaging and finish fastest when others are stopping.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

55% probability

If the prominent quartet gets tangled up and Highland Olly sets steady fractions

The early pace will be genuine but not excessive, allowing the closers to sit perfectly and unleash late runs when the pace-pressured leaders weaken. Hold-up specialists get dream positioning while prominent runners compromise each other.

KokaneeCommander Of LifeEagle DayPension Pot

Front group stays clear

25% probability

If Highland Olly kicks on turning for home and the prominent horses find racing room

The leader builds a decisive advantage while one or two from the chasing pack manages to avoid interference and sustain their challenge. Early speed holds sway over late pace.

Highland OllyInfluentialMoonjidPulsar Star

Pace collapse scenario

12% probability

If Highland Olly goes too slow and the field bunches dangerously at halfway

The race becomes a sprint finish where positioning matters more than pure pace, creating a scramble where any style can prevail depending on racing luck. The winner emerges from chaos rather than tactics.

Oceans FiveMoonjidHighland OllyCommander Of Life

Genuine pace throughout

8% probability

If Highland Olly gets pressured early by multiple prominent runners creating strong gallop

The sustained pace spreads the field naturally, allowing each horse to find their rhythm and creating a true test of stamina over speed. Class tells in deep stretch.

InfluentialKokaneeHighland OllyEagle Day

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Highland Olly must be watched for how much pressure the prominent quartet applies early - if they let him coast he becomes very dangerous

WATCH

Moonjid and Pulsar Star could clash for the same prominent position behind Highland Olly, creating interference for both

WATCH

Kokanee's 11-day turnaround needs monitoring - if he shows any signs of tiredness his hold-up style loses its main advantage

NOTE

Influential's 196-day layoff makes him the biggest unknown - watch for early sharpness as Varian horses often need runs

NOTE

The inside draw positions of Commander Of Life and Eagle Day give them tactical advantages as hold-up horses seeking clean runs

6:45 — £9 Racedays At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 15 runners

Lead contested: In The Post v Star StartHISTORIC

How it ran

Boubyan led; the map had In The Post and Star Start in front.

Caph Star won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.

0 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

In The PostStar Start

Prominent · 3

Law SupremeKasganiJoseph

Midfield · 6

BearwithVolto Di MedusaBoubyanOnslow GardensBay Dream BelieverWicklow Way

Hold Up · 4

Dream PirateCaph StarWood WhispererShow Biz Kid

In The Post and Star Start will contest the early lead, with both confirmed front runners likely to ensure a solid gallop from the off. Joseph and Law Supreme should track them prominently, while the majority of this field are hold-up types who will need the pace to develop. The dual pace angle should create an honest tempo that will suit horses with tactical speed. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and forward-going types who can position close enough to strike, as the large contingent of hold-up horses will struggle to find clear runs in the straight.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Trackers Strike

50% probability

If Joseph and Law Supreme track the leaders ideally and have clear runs

The solid pace will expose the pure hold-up horses while suiting those positioned in the first four or five. Law Supreme's recent winning form and Joseph's consistency make them prime beneficiaries of this likely scenario.

Law SupremeJosephStar StartIn The Post

Front Runner Survives

25% probability

If In The Post or Star Start avoid going too fast early and stay on strongly

A controlled early pace allows one of the leaders to maintain their advantage to the line. In The Post's course form on good ground gives him the edge over Star Start in a staying battle.

In The PostStar StartLaw SupremeJoseph

Hold-Up Horse Charge

15% probability

If the early pace is genuinely strong and the field spreads out in the straight

The leaders weaken significantly allowing the patient hold-up horses clear runs and momentum. Dream Pirate's class after a break or Show Biz Kid's ability could emerge in such circumstances.

Dream PirateShow Biz KidCaph StarBearwith

Chaos and Long Shot

10% probability

If there's significant interference or the pace collapses completely early

Unpredictable circumstances create opportunities for outsiders with tactical advantages. Bay Dream Believer's light weight or Wicklow Way's recent win could prove decisive in a messy finish.

Bay Dream BelieverWicklow WayOnslow GardensVolto Di Medusa

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Star Start and In The Post both go too fast early, setting up the race for closers despite the tactical analysis

WATCH

Law Supreme gets shuffled back from his ideal prominent position in the early stages

WATCH

Dream Pirate shows signs of needing the run after his long break when the pace quickens

NOTE

Joseph's ability to maintain his position tracking the leaders when they quicken

NOTE

The jockeys on the main hold-up horses panic and come too soon if the pace is only moderate

7:15 — Ladies Day 9th May Handicap (Div I)

1m½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Back From Dubai likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Back From Dubai led, as the map showed.

Evelyn's Phoenix won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Back From Dubai

Prominent · 3

Evelyn's PhoenixPenny GhentFreedom Bay

Midfield · 3

Molly MarineTilsworth MaxBizarre Law

Hold Up · 3

Fifty SentScepticAl Baahy

Back From Dubai looks the sole natural front-runner in this field and should get an uncontested lead, setting a sustainable pace without pressure from fellow prominent runners Evelyn's Phoenix, Freedom Bay, and Penny Ghent who are more likely to track. The majority hold-up horses including Sceptic, Al Baahy, Fifty Sent, Molly Marine, Bizarre Law, and Tilsworth Max will be bunched behind, creating a wall of horses needing room late. With one horse controlling the tempo and six hold-up horses needing late runs on the rail-heavy Nottingham straight, this race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can secure good positions early.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Wins

45% probability

If Back From Dubai gets soft fractions and isn't pressured early

Back From Dubai controls the race throughout and kicks clear in the straight while the hold-up brigade gets tangled up behind. The sustainable pace allows the leader to have enough left for the finish while those coming from behind arrive too late.

Back From DubaiEvelyn's PhoenixFreedom BayPenny Ghent

Hold-Up Horse Surge

30% probability

If the pace becomes truly crawling and the field bunches up completely

The slow tempo allows the back markers to close the gap turning for home, creating a cavalry charge finish. Hold-up specialists with the best turn of foot can unleash telling kicks in the final two furlongs.

Al BaahyFifty SentScepticBizarre Law

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If Back From Dubai sets steady fractions but weakens in the final furlong

The prominent horses tracking the leader inherit the race as the front-runner ties up and the hold-up horses can't make up enough ground. Early positioning proves decisive in a tactical finish.

Evelyn's PhoenixFreedom BayPenny GhentBack From Dubai

Traffic Chaos Finish

10% probability

If the hold-up horses get badly hampered and can't get clear runs

Poor positioning and traffic problems in the straight create an messy finish where luck trumps ability. The race becomes a lottery with horses getting first run having decisive advantages.

Tilsworth MaxMolly MarineBizarre LawSceptic

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Back From Dubai jumping out too fast and setting unsustainable fractions that compromise his finish

WATCH

Traffic problems developing in straight as six hold-up horses all seek room simultaneously

WATCH

Evelyn's Phoenix showing signs of rustiness after 173-day layoff in crucial early stages

NOTE

Bizarre Law getting strong early position despite hold-up style with De Sousa in the saddle

NOTE

Whether Al Baahy can overcome 46-day break to reproduce recent winning form

7:45 — Ladies Day 9th May Handicap (Div II)

1m½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

James Park Woods likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Haaf A Diamond led; the map had James Park Woods in front.

Desiderata won at 5.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

James Park Woods

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 6

DesiderataMooretown LadLaw DegreeUnited ForceHaaf A DiamondClipsham Noble

Hold Up · 3

CharenceyRayshamLove You More

James Park Woods is the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate proceedings from the gate, setting what should be a sustainable gallop without early pressure. The entire field apart from James Park Woods shows hold-up tendencies, creating a tactical race where the pace-setter could steal a march if allowed easy fractions. This will become a waiting game behind James Park Woods until the home turn, when the hold-up brigade will need to produce their finishing kicks simultaneously. This race shape strongly favours the early leader James Park Woods and any hold-up horses with proven tactical speed who can overcome traffic problems.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leader Gets Away

45% probability

If James Park Woods secures uncontested fractions and builds a decisive advantage turning for home.

The veteran will have too much rope and his recent Kempton win shows he retains enough ability to hold determined finishers. Hold-up horses face a wall of traffic in the straight as they all come with runs together.

James Park WoodsDesiderataClipsham NobleLaw Degree

Strong Closer Strikes

30% probability

If the pace proves too slow and one hold-up horse produces a devastating late surge.

James Park Woods will tie up in the final furlong after dictating terms, allowing the strongest stayer to power through. Desiderata's recent form and Havlin's booking suggests connections expect a big run.

DesiderataRayshamJames Park WoodsCharencey

Traffic Chaos Benefits

15% probability

If the large hold-up contingent creates serious interference problems in the home straight.

Several horses will find their runs blocked or delayed, gifting the race to those who secure clear runs or avoid the scrimmaging entirely. James Park Woods could benefit from the mayhem behind him.

James Park WoodsLove You MoreUnited ForceMooretown Lad

Outsider Ambush

10% probability

If the market leaders underperform and a lightly-raced improver strikes.

The long absence and handicap mark adjustments could see one of the less exposed runners outrun their odds significantly. Fresh horses often thrive in these competitive handicaps.

Clipsham NobleUnited ForceHaaf A DiamondMooretown Lad

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

James Park Woods must be monitored for early pace - if he secures soft fractions he becomes extremely dangerous

WATCH

Traffic problems are inevitable with nine hold-up horses converging simultaneously in the home straight

WATCH

Desiderata's market support despite 24-day break suggests stable intelligence of a big performance

NOTE

First-time headgear on Charencey and Haaf A Diamond could spark improvement but both face fitness concerns

NOTE

The 5lb and 3lb claiming jockeys on Clipsham Noble and Raysham respectively provide significant weight advantages

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 18 April 2026.

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