5:55 — Racing To School Haydock Park Training Series Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Part Of The Racing Excellence Series)
1m½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
No Knee Never likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Perfidia and No Knee Never led, as the map showed.
Bay Dream Believer won at 19.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
No Knee Never
Prominent · 1
Tees George
Midfield · 2
PerfidiaSceptic
Hold Up · 2
Popeye DoyleBay Dream Believer
No Knee Never is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with only five rivals, faces no meaningful challenge for the lead in a 1m½f apprentice handicap at Nottingham — this is a horse that can dictate at a genuinely sustainable tempo rather than a contested, pressured gallop. Tees George and Perfidia are both natural prominent types who will look to press close to the pace, though Perfidia has been redistributed to midfield on the map because there are more prominent-profile horses in this field than can all comfortably hold that berth in practice. Bay Dream Believer and Sceptic are true hold-up horses, and Sceptic has similarly been displaced — the field carries more genuine sit-and-wait types than the pace map can accommodate at the rear, meaning at least one of them must race out of their natural comfort zone. With a lone, uncontested front-runner likely to control an even tempo on good-to-firm ground over this flat, straight-favouring trip, the race shape decisively favours horses who can race prominently and sustain their effort, rather than deep closers relying on a true end-to-end gallop to reel in the leader.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead Holds Firm
68% probability
If No Knee Never takes the rail and dictates an unchallenged, honest tempo that is never truly overhauled
No Knee Never bowls along in front at a pace that suits a staying-on prominent runner, with nothing willing or able to go with him early on good-to-firm ground; horses who can race close enough to pounce in the straight, specifically Tees George with his strong Nottingham form and course-distance experience, are best positioned to capitalise if the leader fades or to kick clear themselves.
No Knee NeverTees GeorgePerfidiaBay Dream Believer
B
Prominent Racer Overhauled Late
16% probability
If the early pace is fractionally too strong and a prominent challenger picks off the leader inside the final furlong
No Knee Never, racing at the head of affairs, has been running at 10f-12f recently and may find the extra ground on firm going a stretch too far late on, allowing a held-up or midfield horse to mow him down; Bay Dream Believer, who won at 10f on good ground and has strong similar-going numbers, is the most likely beneficiary from just off the pace.
Bay Dream BelieverTees GeorgePopeye DoylePerfidia
C
Hold-Up Closers Pounce
10% probability
If the pace collapses in the final two furlongs and the field concertinas, allowing genuine closers to sprint through
This shape requires Bay Dream Believer or Sceptic to be produced with a well-timed run from the rear as the tempo eases sharply; Sceptic carries a style-fit discount having been mapped out of his true hold-up role, reducing confidence that he will secure the ideal position, but Bay Dream Believer's winning form at this trip and going gives him a residual chance.
Bay Dream BelieverScepticPopeye DoylePerfidia
D
Pace Collapse Midfield Win
6% probability
If the front-runners set a false pace early then fade dramatically, gifting a midfield tracker an easy passage
Perfidia, a natural prominent type forced into a midfield berth, would need to find a clear run in a bunched finish and produces best on good ground, but racing out of role tempers expectations significantly; Popeye Doyle has the hold-up profile to emerge from traffic but has struggled over 10f and would need the race to fall perfectly.
PerfidiaPopeye DoyleScepticBay Dream Believer
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
No Knee Never sets the entire pace tempo — if he is allowed to stride away unchallenged from the start and dictate a comfortable fractions, the race may never truly develop and he could steal enough of a break to hold on; watch how quickly he clears the field by the half-mile pole.
WATCH
Perfidia's ability to secure a forward enough position is the pivotal tactical question — a natural prominent type in a field with Tees George also pressing, she risks being shuffled back further than suits her, and if that happens her strong similar-going form counts for less.
WATCH
Sceptic's 34-day absence and visor headgear flag an unknown — Ian Williams often targets horses fresh, but the redistribution away from his natural hold-up role means Donagh Murphy will need to make an early positional decision that could compromise his run.
NOTE
Bay Dream Believer's trainer Mark Walford is in a 0-from-17 spell over the past 14 days — despite the horse's strong going and trip form, stable form is a live negative that warrants monitoring in the market before assuming his raw figures translate today.
NOTE
The going report confirms Good to Firm throughout the card at Nottingham — no late softening expected, which consistently suits front-runners and prominent racers at this track and reinforces the pace-map read that hold-up horses face a structurally difficult task.
6:30 — Racing Tv Profits Returned To Racing Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)
6f · Good · CLS5 · 5 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
7:00 — Watch Race Replays At Racingtv.com Fillies' Handicap Stakes
5f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
Sound And Vision likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Control Room and Marajito led; the map had Sound And Vision in front.
Zoustar Dreams won at 6.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Sound And Vision
Prominent · 2
Control RoomStarsong
Midfield · 2
Storm CallDouble Naughty
Hold Up · 2
MarajitoZoustar Dreams
Sound And Vision is the lone confirmed front-runner and, on Good To Firm ground over 5f at Nottingham, she should stride into a comfortable lead from stall four with no genuine pace rival to push her — Ashley Lewis (5) will be able to dictate terms at a sustainable gallop rather than being forced into a breakneck tempo. Control Room and Starsong are both prominent types who will press for early position just off the leader, ensuring a genuine enough pace without it becoming a cavalry charge. The redistribution note is important here: Double Naughty, Storm Call and Zoustar Dreams are all true hold-up horses but the map has pushed two of them into the midfield slots because there are more hold-up types than the race shape can naturally accommodate at the rear — Storm Call and Double Naughty are the most likely to fail to get their natural position and will end up closer than ideal. This shape — a single uncontested leader setting a controlled pace on fast ground over the minimum trip — strongly favours prominent racers who can track the leader and pounce in the final furlong, rather than genuine closers who need a strong pace to reel in.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead Holds
69% probability
If Sound And Vision dictates an uncontested, well-judged gallop and the hold-up horses are left with too much to do.
Sound And Vision bowls along in front at a sound but not punishing tempo, with Control Room and Starsong tracking close behind — on Good To Firm ground the rail-runner can quicken or simply stay honest and last home, and any prominent type handy enough to challenge in the final 1f benefits enormously.
Sound And VisionControl RoomStarsongMarajito
B
Prominent Pounce Wins
17% probability
If Sound And Vision ties herself up slightly in the closing stages and a close-tracking prominent horse surges past in the final 100 yards.
Control Room, proven effective at 5f on Good ground and with strong recent placed form at this trip, or Starsong who knows how to race prominently at this level, sweeps past a tiring leader — this is the likeliest upset shape as it still involves horses racing true to their natural style.
Control RoomStarsongSound And VisionMarajito
C
Hold-Up Flyer Late
9% probability
If the pace is genuinely hot early and the closers get a proper tow into the race from their natural position.
Marajito is the best-placed true hold-up horse given she avoided redistribution and her two wins over today's exact 5f/Good combination give her genuine credentials to come through late — Zoustar Dreams also has course and distance-winning form to call on.
MarajitoZoustar DreamsDouble NaughtyStorm Call
D
Chaos And Shuffling
5% probability
If the redistribution plays out messily and Double Naughty or Storm Call are badly hampered in terms of position and the race fractures into a scrappy sprint.
Horses out of their natural role in a tight 7-runner 5f field risk getting into trouble when the gates open and the early jostling begins — any runner that does secure a clean run from an awkward starting position becomes a live threat in a messy outcome.
Sound And Vision sets the entire race shape — if she misses the break or gets shuffled back at the start, the whole pace dynamic collapses and hold-up horses suddenly have a live chance they would not otherwise enjoy.
WATCH
Double Naughty and Storm Call are both true hold-up horses who cannot get their natural position in this field; watch whether they race closer than ideal from the off, which would waste their late energy on early position rather than a closing run.
WATCH
Control Room has strong recent form figures and is a prominent type well-suited to tracking Sound And Vision — if she breaks smartly and lands a handy pitch on the leader's quarters, she becomes the most dangerous threat in the final furlong.
NOTE
The going is reported Good To Firm for this race specifically (7:00 5f slot in the report) despite the headline "Good" designation — any runner with a documented going concern on fast ground should be monitored closely in the pre-race inspection.
7:33 — Steve Yarborough Memorial Handicap Stakes
1m2f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners
Poor Relation likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Del Corso led; the map had Poor Relation in front.
Del Corso won at 1.40 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Poor Relation
Prominent · 1
Miss Pretty
Midfield · 1
Del Corso
Hold Up · 1
Crimson Rambler
Poor Relation is the lone confirmed pace-setter in a four-runner field and will lead from the front unchallenged, with Miss Pretty likely to track closely in a prominent role and Del Corso and Crimson Rambler settling further back. With no rival to pressure Poor Relation, the gallop will be controlled and metronomic on Good to Firm ground over 1m2f — a distance that rewards horses who can sustain rather than accelerate sharply. The small field and absence of pace pressure means the front two positions are unlikely to be overworked early, which naturally favours horses who can sit handy and produce a measured late effort rather than pure closers needing a strong pace to reel in. This race shape most benefits prominent-to-handy runners with stamina and a reliable finishing effort, as there is no reason for the pace to collapse or for closers to benefit from a strong early tempo.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lone Leader Controls
72% probability
If Poor Relation dictates a clean, uncontested lead and the pace is neither too slow nor too fast, ensuring the prominent runners behind are not underworked.
Poor Relation sets a sustainable rhythm and arrives at the final two furlongs with reserves intact, with Miss Pretty pressing but unable to generate a decisive burst from a modest pace.
Poor RelationMiss PrettyDel CorsoCrimson Rambler
B
Prominent Pair Battle Out
15% probability
If Miss Pretty pushes up to pressurise Poor Relation from early and turns the race into a two-horse duel, elevating the pace slightly.
The increased tempo burns off the hold-up pair before the turn and the winner comes from between Poor Relation and Miss Pretty who battle it out in the straight.
Miss PrettyPoor RelationDel CorsoCrimson Rambler
C
Closer Swoops Late
8% probability
If the pace is unusually strong or the prominent horses fade in the final furlong, leaving a gap for a hold-up horse to finish through.
Crimson Rambler, who has placed on Good ground at 8f-10f, would be best positioned to pick up the pieces, though the slow-tempo environment makes a true late swoop unlikely.
Crimson RamblerDel CorsoMiss PrettyPoor Relation
D
Del Corso Midfield Strike
5% probability
If Del Corso, whose form profile shows consistent placings at 8f on Good, finds the pace insufficient and benefits from tracking the leaders unobtrusively before a smooth late move.
Del Corso travels comfortably off the modest gallop and overtakes a tiring front pair in the final furlong, with his course-style versatility and recent sharp prep (16 days) working in his favour.
Del CorsoCrimson RamblerMiss PrettyPoor Relation
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Poor Relation's uncontested lead is the defining tactical factor — watch whether it is allowed to bowl along untroubled in the early furlongs, as any free run at a modest pace dramatically improves its chance of lasting home.
WATCH
Miss Pretty's cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time or as a return to headgear — watch how prominently Harry Davies deploys it from the gate, as pushing up to challenge Poor Relation early could either suit or expose a stamina limit at 1m2f.
WATCH
Crimson Rambler's blinkers and the modest small-field pace are in tension — if Liam Wright cannot get a strong enough gallop to close into, the horse's hold-up profile will be neutralised entirely on Good to Firm ground.
NOTE
Del Corso's 16-day turnaround is the sharpest prep in the field — Ed Walker's 6/33 strike rate over 14 days is respectable, and if the horse is forward-fit it could be more competitive than its odds suggest in a race with very limited pace pressure.
NOTE
With only four runners, any incident at the start or positional jostling in the early stages could dramatically reshape the race — a small field at Nottingham over 1m2f tends to produce strung-out races where early positioning is critical.
8:08 — Every Race Live On Racing Tv Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)
1m½f · Good · NOV · 5 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
8:43 — Racedays For £9 At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes
1m2f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Everyoneknowsadave likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Woodstock City led; the map had Everyoneknowsadave in front.
Everyoneknowsadave won at 3.25 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Everyoneknowsadave
Prominent · 1
Ablon
Midfield · 2
CaelanRevelio
Hold Up · 2
Woodstock CityDidaar
Everyoneknowsadave is the sole confirmed front runner in this six-runner 1m2f contest and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, is set to control proceedings from the outset at a sustainable, uncontested gallop on Good to Firm ground. Ablon will likely track close up in second from the front rank, leaving the hold-up contingent — Didaar, Woodstock City, Caelan, and Revelio — to settle in behind a modest, owner-dictated tempo. The field actually contains more hold-up horses than the pace map can honestly place at the rear: Caelan and Revelio are genuine hold-up operators redistributed into the midfield slots because the shape simply cannot accommodate all of them at the back, meaning their true finishing kick may be compromised by having to race closer than ideal. The tactical verdict is clear: an uncontested, economical front-runner dictating a controlled pace on fast ground at Nottingham heavily favours prominent racers who can sit just behind the leader and pounce in the straight, rather than deep closers who need a true end-to-end gallop to get competitive.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead Holds On
68% probability
If Everyoneknowsadave gets an uncontested lead and sets a comfortable tempo, dictating every yard unchallenged.
Everyoneknowsadave bowls along in front at a measured gallop, and with no rival willing to pressurise, the sectionals never become punishing enough to reel in the leader; Ablon, sitting closest, is best placed to grab second but may not overhaul the leader. A controlled pace on quick ground at Nottingham suits horses racing prominently who can conserve energy through the mid-race and quicken briefly in the straight.
EveryoneknowsadaveAblonDidaarWoodstock City
B
Prominent Challenger Pounces
16% probability
If Ablon tracks Everyoneknowsadave throughout and produces a superior turn of foot in the final two furlongs.
Ablon, shown good form including a win in a similar prominent-running role, uses a handy position to challenge as the pace inevitably steadies into the straight, targeting a horse that may be feeling the race late. This shape again rewards prominent positioning and penalises those who have to make up ground from the rear on a course where the final straight at Nottingham offers limited time for closers.
AblonDidaarWoodstock CityRevelio
C
Hold-Up Horse Lands Late
10% probability
If the pace is surprisingly honest early and a hold-up runner finds a clear run through beaten rivals in the final furlong.
Didaar, the most recent winner among the hold-up contingent and in form, would be the most credible beneficiary if late pace develops, having won over the same 10f trip on Good ground; Woodstock City also has the profile but both need more pace than Everyoneknowsadave alone is likely to generate. Caelan and Revelio are tagged as redistributed hold-up types racing closer than natural, so their ability to produce a true finishing surge from midfield is structurally compromised.
DidaarWoodstock CityCaelanRevelio
D
Field Bunched, Messy Finish
6% probability
If traffic problems develop in a closely-grouped field and a hold-up type finds daylight late from an unexpected angle.
A small field of six can create a falsely-run, compressed finish where horses racing out of role — like Caelan or Revelio pushed into midfield — find gaps late; however both carry STYLE_FIT discounts and their chance relies on everything going perfectly against their natural racing pattern. This is the least likely shape given the clear pace hierarchy and is included only to capture genuine race-day chaos rather than as a credible baseline.
RevelioCaelanDidaarWoodstock City
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch whether any rival challenges Everyoneknowsadave for the lead in the opening furlong — if Ablon's rider Rodriguez sends him forward aggressively, the tempo could lift and fundamentally change the race shape.
WATCH
Didaar's fitness edge from winning 14 days ago could make him the most dangerous closer if the pace is even fractionally stronger than expected; Jake Dickson's 7lb claim also keeps his weight competitive.
WATCH
Caelan runs just four days after his last start and has never raced over as short as 1m2f in his form figures — both the quick turnaround and the trip drop are live concerns for Olly Murphy's hold-up operator.
NOTE
Good to Firm conditions (confirmed by the going report across multiple races on the card) will place a premium on those who can produce a sustained finish rather than a sudden sprint, which marginally aids Ablon's prominent-running profile over deeper closers.
NOTE
With six runners and a single front runner, the field is likely to remain tightly bunched through the middle section — jockeys on hold-up horses such as Revelio and Woodstock City may find themselves shuffled wider than ideal when the race quickens turning for home.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.