Archive›Nottingham · 19 May 2026

Nottingham

19 May 2026 · 6 races

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2:20 — £9 Racedays At Nottingham Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

1m½f · Good · NOV · 11 runners

Runman likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Lean d'Aislingean led; the map had Runman in front.

Moreedd won at 6.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Runman

Prominent · 3

AdamlyiRevelioCarly Minogue

Midfield · 4

Peace And QuietLucky CaminoLean d'AislingeanFlorizelle

Hold Up · 3

Atlas MountainMr BollingerMoreedd

Runman will take the field along from the front with no genuine pace pressure, creating a sustainable gallop that should build gradually through the middle sections. The prominent runners Adamlyi, Revelio and Carly Minogue will track close behind but none possess the natural gate speed to challenge Runman's supremacy early. This sets up a tactical affair where the hold-up horses Atlas Mountain, Moreedd, Mr Bollinger and Florizelle can be delivered late into what should be a moderate tempo. The combination of one uncontested leader and several closers positioned to strike favours horses that can finish strongly from off the pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

40% probability

If Runman gets his own way in front with soft fractions

The pace becomes too slow for the field to reel him back in, allowing his superior class (OR 90, two from two) to tell over the final furlong. His proven stamina at this trip on good ground makes him extremely difficult to pass when not under early pressure.

RunmanPeace And QuietAdamlyiLucky Camino

Strong Closer Strikes

35% probability

If the moderate pace allows hold-up horses perfect positioning turning for home

Atlas Mountain or Moreedd can unleash their finishing kicks from ideal spots as the field concertinas over the final two furlongs. The gelding operation on Atlas Mountain may have sharpened him significantly since his keeping-on Newbury effort.

Atlas MountainMoreeddMr BollingerLean d'Aislingean

Prominent Tracker Prevails

15% probability

If Adamlyi or a debut runner can quicken past a tiring Runman

The Haggas second string shows the benefit of his Yarmouth near-miss or one of the well-bred newcomers produces a professional display. Adamlyi's stamina-laden pedigree suits this sustained test after looking in need of the trip previously.

AdamlyiLucky CaminoPeace And QuietLean d'Aislingean

Pace Collapse Surprise

10% probability

If the tempo becomes crawling and produces a blanket finish

The race turns into a pure sprint finish where any horse with a turn of foot can strike, potentially elevating an outsider like the freshened Mr Bollinger. The drop back to 1m4f from 1m2f efforts could unlock improvement for several runners.

Mr BollingerAtlas MountainRevelioCarly Minogue

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Runman could steal this if allowed uncontested fractions, his 1-12 Epsom victory shows class edge when getting own way

WATCH

Peace And Quiet and other debutants represent unknown quantities with strong breeding - market support crucial indicator

NOTE

Atlas Mountain showed promise keeping on at Newbury before gelding operation - watch for sharper display

WATCH

The 336-day absence makes Carly Minogue and any other returning horses fitness concerns

NOTE

Track Adamlyi for tactical positioning - his Yarmouth second suggests he needs prominent pitch to be effective

2:50 — Family Fun Raceday Sunday 31st May Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m2f · Good · NOV · 11 runners

Knights Charge to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Cliff Danger led; the map had Knights Charge in front.

Knights Charge won at 3.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Knights Charge

Prominent · 2

OutflankDomenico Contarini

Midfield · 5

ZurnaCloud ForestShopaholicBarak WarriorCliff Danger

Hold Up · 3

Liam Mera KaiBay RoyaleSemele

Knights Charge will set a steady gallop from the front with minimal pressure, having shown clear leading tendencies in his AW wins. Outflank and Domenico Contarini will likely track him in the early stages, but neither appears keen to apply serious pressure given their prominent rather than aggressive styles. The pace will be genuine but not taxing through the middle sections, setting up a tactical finish over the final 2-3 furlongs. This measured tempo strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce a finishing kick, as the leaders will have plenty left for the closing stages without being softened up.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

65% probability

If Knights Charge sets his expected steady tempo without serious pressure

The moderate early pace allows closers to position perfectly and unleash their kicks when it matters most. Bay Royale, Liam Mera Kai and Cliff Danger can all benefit from this tactical setup.

Bay RoyaleLiam Mera KaiCliff DangerSemele

Front runners hold on

20% probability

If the closing kick from behind fails to materialise due to traffic or positioning

Knights Charge maintains his rhythm throughout and Outflank's prominent position pays dividends. The steady pace means the leaders retain enough stamina to resist late challengers.

Knights ChargeOutflankBay RoyaleCloud Forest

Newcomers spring surprise

10% probability

If Cloud Forest or Zurna show significant improvement from their breeding and connections

The Godolphin runner or Sea The Moon half-brother produces an unexpectedly strong debut performance. Their fresh legs and potential class could overcome the established form horses.

Cloud ForestZurnaKnights ChargeBay Royale

Pace collapses completely

5% probability

If Knights Charge goes very slowly and the field bunches up dangerously

A sprint finish develops where positioning and luck become crucial factors. The race turns into a lottery where any horse getting a clear run can prevail regardless of ability.

OutflankShopaholicKnights ChargeBarak Warrior

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Knights Charge if he goes too fast early - could compromise his stamina reserves for the finish

WATCH

Cloud Forest market support given Godolphin's strike rate with well-bred newcomers under Murphy

NOTE

Bay Royale's positioning in the early stages as he needs to be handy enough to deliver his kick

WATCH

Late money for Zurna despite trainer's poor newcomer record - breeding could override statistics

NOTE

Outflank's jump from the stalls as prominent position crucial if pace becomes truly stop-start

3:20 — Dine In Sherwoods Restaurant Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Stepanov likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Grindleton and Lady Lauren led; the map had Stepanov in front.

Mohaab won at 10.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Stepanov

Prominent · 3

Sports DayGrindletonLabiche

Midfield · 4

VeldAureluneMohaabLady Lauren

Hold Up · 4

Houndswood WillowPremier CruThimbleTenison

Stepanov is the lone confirmed front-runner and will take them along at a sustainable gallop without early pressure. Sports Day and Grindleton as prominent runners may track closely but are unlikely to challenge for the lead early. The lack of genuine pace-pressers means Stepanov can dictate terms through steady fractions before the field fans out in the straight. This setup clearly favours hold-up horses who can benefit from the solid gallop and finish strongly, while prominent runners may find themselves positioned awkwardly behind the uncontested leader.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Stepanov sets modest fractions uncontested through the first three-quarters

The patient hold-up horses get the perfect setup to unleash finishing kicks from off the pace. Multiple closers can take advantage as the leaders tire after the sustained effort over 1m2f.

Premier CruVeldHoundswood WillowThimble

Stepanov Wire-To-Wire

20% probability

If the front-runner's sustainable pace proves too much for the closer brigade

Stepanov capitalizes on his uncontested lead and soft fractions to maintain his advantage to the line. The lack of early pace pressure allows him to reserve enough energy for the finish.

StepanovSports DayGrindletonLabiche

Prominent Tracker Strikes

12% probability

If Sports Day or Grindleton can position perfectly behind Stepanov and time their move

The prominent runners benefit from tracking the leader's honest pace before striking in the final two furlongs. Their tactical positioning gives them first run on the field as Stepanov begins to tire.

Sports DayGrindletonVeldPremier Cru

Pace Collapse Drama

3% probability

If Stepanov goes too slowly and creates a messy sprint finish

The lack of early pace leads to a bunched field and tactical chaos in the straight. Jockey skills become paramount as multiple horses arrive together in a blanket finish.

LabichePremier CruSports DayVeld

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Stepanov could get away with very soft fractions if no prominent runners apply early pressure

WATCH

Sports Day and Grindleton positioning - sitting too close behind Stepanov could compromise their finishing kicks

NOTE

Premier Cru and Veld both making turf debuts with hold-up styles perfectly suited to expected pace shape

WATCH

Multiple runners making handicap debuts could lead to unpredictable improvement from current ratings

NOTE

Ground conditions remaining Good throughout the card favor horses with proven form on similar surfaces

3:50 — Events And Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap

1m½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Island Bear to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Runswick led; the map had Island Bear in front.

Rosa Inglesa won at 4.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Island Bear

Prominent · 4

RunswickCapicheraNorth ForceI'm Just Ken

Midfield · 3

Rosa InglesaBeyond The BarDomination

Hold Up · 1

Chapter

Island Bear will likely lead uncontested with the field small enough to avoid early pace pressure. Rosa Inglesa, Beyond The Bar, North Force and I'm Just Ken will all converge in the prominent positions creating a wall of traffic 2-3 furlongs out. With only Chapter sitting back as a genuine hold-up horse, the pace will be honest but sustainable through the middle stages. This setup strongly favours prominent runners who can secure clear racing room early, as the lone leader Island Bear may find it hard to sustain his effort when the pack arrives.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Power Play

45% probability

If the prominent brigade gets clean splits turning in

The honest pace sets up perfectly for horses like North Force and Rosa Inglesa who can track the leader without getting caught in traffic. Their superior recent form tells when getting uninterrupted runs.

North ForceRosa InglesaCapicheraBeyond The Bar

Leader Lasts Longest

25% probability

If Island Bear maintains his kick when challenged in the straight

The gelding operation and return to turf could unlock improvement, and with no early pace pressure he gets soft fractions to work with. His previous placed efforts on good going give him every chance.

Island BearBeyond The BarNorth ForceRosa Inglesa

Hold-Up Hero Strikes

20% probability

If Chapter handles the going despite ground concerns

The lack of early pace and bunched prominent pack creates the perfect scenario for the only genuine closer to sweep up late. His previous form on heavy suggests he may need cut but could surprise.

ChapterRunswickNorth ForceIsland Bear

Improver From Behind

10% probability

If Domination's Ripon win was a breakthrough moment rather than a fluke

The step up two grades is significant but the form horse gets racing room from his mid-division position. His recent success suggests untapped potential at this longer trip.

DominationChapterI'm Just KenIsland Bear

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Island Bear's stamina reserves when the prominent pack arrives - his previous efforts suggest he may weaken late

WATCH

Traffic congestion 2-3 furlongs out as Rosa Inglesa, North Force, Beyond The Bar and I'm Just Ken converge

WATCH

Chapter's going tolerance as his best form came on heavy and he was withdrawn from good ground recently

NOTE

North Force's ability to quicken off honest pace given his consistent placed efforts in similar company

NOTE

Domination's class adjustment stepping up from Class 6 to Class 4 after his breakthrough Ripon success

4:20 — Conferences And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Fillies' Handicap

1m½f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Lead contested: Ziata v Stella LucenteHISTORIC

How it ran

Katalyst led; the map had Ziata and Stella Lucente in front.

Wondrous Light won at 5.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

ZiataStella Lucente

Prominent · 5

Pretty AmbitiousHuggableEspanitaKatalystVolendam

Midfield · 2

Pretty SpiritedGalileo Charm

Hold Up · 4

Wondrous LightSalikoPorth EilianJamie Sommers

Stella Lucente and Ziata will ensure a strong early gallop as both confirmed front-runners clash from the gates. With 13 runners over 1m4f, the pace should be honest but not suicidal, allowing the field to stay reasonably compact through the middle stages. The final 3f will see the pace intensify as prominent racers and hold-up horses launch their challenges. This honest pace scenario clearly favours horses with proven finishing kicks who can sit handy or further back, making hold-up and midfield runners the tactical beneficiaries.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

60% probability

If the early pace is honest but not excessive between the two leaders

The pace will set up perfectly for closers like Wondrous Light and Jamie Sommers who can use their proven finishing speed. Saliko's course record (2-2 at Nottingham) becomes crucial as the race develops into a sprint finish.

Wondrous LightSalikoJamie SommersGalileo Charm

Prominent Trackers Strike

25% probability

If one of the leaders goes too fast and the other gets pulled along

The honest gallop will suit horses like Huggable and Pretty Spirited who can track the pace without getting involved early. Their proven ability to quicken off a solid pace gives them the edge over tiring leaders.

HuggablePretty SpiritedVolendamPretty Ambitious

Front-Runner Survival

10% probability

If both Stella Lucente and Ziata settle better than expected and share the work

The pace becomes more manageable, allowing one of them to have enough left for the finish. Stella Lucente's consistent placed form makes her the more likely survivor with Oisin Murphy's tactical nous.

Stella LucenteZiataEspanitaPorth Eilian

Pace Collapse Chaos

5% probability

If both leaders go off too fast and tie each other up completely

The race becomes a sprint from the 3f pole with no clear pace advantage. This random finish could suit an outsider like Pretty Spirited who has been running well lately or Katalyst if the headgear works.

Pretty SpiritedKatalystPorth EilianVolendam

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Stella Lucente and Ziata must be monitored for how aggressively they engage early as both are confirmed front-runners

WATCH

Saliko's 0-10 record away from Nottingham versus 2-2 course record creates a massive unknown factor

NOTE

Huggable returns after 200 days off and drops back in trip from her best 1m2f performances

WATCH

Jamie Sommers represents Loughnane who is 0/19 in the last 14 days despite the horse's decent form

NOTE

Katalyst wears headgear for the first time which could unlock improvement in this six-race maiden

4:55 — £9 Racedays At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

Dunnington Lad to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Bang On The Bell led; the map had Dunnington Lad in front.

Sonic Si won at 3.75 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Dunnington Lad

Prominent · 6

Irish DancerBang On The BellBarmybladeCharging BullTimebarPoetic Jack

Midfield · 3

Nad Alshiba SnowTop StarMister McGregor

Hold Up · 4

Sonic SiDiamondsinthesandChasing GoldMasterclass

Dunnington Lad will lead from stall rise but faces no early pressure, allowing him to dictate a steady pace through the initial stages. Six prominent runners (Bang On The Bell, Irish Dancer, Timebar, Nad Alshiba Snow, Charging Bull, Barmyblade, Poetic Jack) will create congestion 2-3 furlongs out as they fan wide seeking racing room. The hold-up brigade including Sonic Si, Masterclass and Chasing Gold will face a wall of horses ahead turning for home. This sustainable early pace followed by prominent congestion strongly favours those who can secure an early position and avoid traffic - the pace shape benefits front-runners and those tracking the leader.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Dunnington Lad maintains his early advantage without serious challenge

The moderate pace allows him to conserve energy while prominent runners get tangled up behind, giving the leader first run on the field. His front-running style perfectly exploits the lack of early pace pressure.

Dunnington LadIrish DancerTimebarBang On The Bell

Prominent Battle Unfolds

30% probability

If the six prominent runners engage in sustained scrimmaging from 3f out

The pace quickens significantly as they jostle for position, creating gaps for patient hold-up horses to exploit late. Superior class tells as the field stretches out.

Irish DancerSonic SiChasing GoldMasterclass

Hold-Up Heroes Strike

15% probability

If the prominent congestion completely stalls turning for home

Patient runners get clear passage down the outside while the leaders and prominent pack tie up badly. Late acceleration becomes the winning weapon despite the early steady tempo.

Sonic SiChasing GoldTop StarMasterclass

Complete Pace Collapse

10% probability

If Dunnington Lad sets funeral fractions and prominent runners refuse to engage

The race becomes a complete crawl until the final 2f when everything comes with one devastating late run. The winner emerges from complete obscurity in the final 100 yards.

MasterclassTop StarSonic SiMister McGregor

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Dunnington Lad could steal a march if prominent runners hesitate to engage early

WATCH

Irish Dancer and Bang On The Bell may clash for the same prominent position 2f out

WATCH

Sonic Si needs significant pace development to get into contention from his hold-up position

NOTE

Timebar's 341-day absence could show in the final furlong despite early tactical advantage

NOTE

The six prominent runners creating a wall effect that completely blocks hold-up horses

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 19 May 2026.

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