Archive›Nottingham · 2 July 2026

Nottingham

2 July 2026 · 7 races

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2:00 — Racedays For 9 Pound At Nottingham Racecourse Nursery

6f · Good · CLS5 · 8 runners

Ziggy Starshine likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Ponte Carlo led; the map had Ziggy Starshine in front.

Innichen won at 3.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ziggy Starshine

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

InnichenHavana Grey StarCourseyoudoPonte CarloInvincible Isaac

Hold Up · 2

KoodiniYahaira

Ziggy Starshine is the sole confirmed pace-setter in this 8-runner 6f nursery and, with no genuine rival for the lead, should stride out uncontested from the gates on good-to-firm ground at Nottingham. That scenario creates a controlled, single-file gallop where the leader dictates tempo — a sustainable pace that suits a horse who has already won at 5f and placed twice at 6f in similar conditions. The hold-up brigade — Koodini, Yahaira, and Ponte Carlo among them — will be riding the slipstream but face the classic problem of a lone front-runner who never truly gets caught cold. This race shape heavily favours the lead-to-prominent profile: a horse who can sit just off a measured pace and produce a clean, uninterrupted finish on fast ground. The field contains significantly more true hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear — Ponte Carlo, Courseyoudo, and Invincible Isaac are all natural hold-up horses but have been mapped to midfield; Ziggy Starshine and any horse able to track closely are the runners most likely to actually secure the prominent positions they need.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Ziggy Starshine Controls Unchallenged

62% probability

If Ziggy Starshine breaks cleanly and settles into a measured lead without any rival pressing from the outside.

Ziggy StarshineInnichenKoodiniYahaira

Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late

18% probability

If Ziggy Starshine sets a stronger pace than expected and tires in the final furlong, opening the door for a closer.

KoodiniYahairaInnichenPonte Carlo

Prominent Tracker Pounces

14% probability

If a horse sits just off Ziggy Starshine's shoulder throughout and strikes decisively inside the final furlong.

InnichenZiggy StarshineKoodiniYahaira

Chaos From The Pack

6% probability

If there is significant interference, a slow start by the favourite, or the pace collapses causing a messy finish.

CourseyoudoInvincible IsaacPonte CarloHavana Grey Star

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ziggy Starshine's gate start is critical — if it misses the break, the entire pace dynamic collapses and the race becomes genuinely open for the hold-up horses behind.

WATCH

Innichen returns from a 64-day absence for Jack Channon — watch the market for signs of stable confidence, as a well-prepared return over 6f for the first time would make it the chief danger to the pace-setter.

WATCH

Koodini and Yahaira are both hold-up horses with the most credible recent form at this trip, but they are racing into a shape where the lone front-runner dictates — monitor whether either jockey elects to press closer than their natural position to avoid being left flat-footed.

NOTE

Ponte Carlo, Courseyoudo, and Invincible Isaac are all true hold-up types mapped forward by necessity — if any of them try to force position early, they risk burning energy out of role and compromising their finish entirely.

NOTE

Good-to-firm ground is confirmed for the 2:00 at Nottingham; all three of Ziggy Starshine's runs have been on identical going and the surface suits — any deterioration during the card would be worth noting for the hold-up brigade but appears unlikely today.

2:30 — EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Good · CLS3 · 6 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

3:00 — Hon. Alderman Malcolm Wood Memorial Nursery

5f · Good · CLS4 · 7 runners

Past Passion to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Seed Ya Later led; the map had Past Passion in front.

Holi Scarlett won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Past Passion

Prominent · 3

Wait GeordieUndercover AffairSeed Ya Later

Midfield · 1

Holi Scarlett

Hold Up · 2

Havana GiftOn The Queue Tee

Past Passion is the lone confirmed front-runner in this 5f nursery on Good to Firm ground at Nottingham, and with no rival expected to seriously contest the lead, she is likely to control the pace from the outset at a sustainable tempo that does not burn herself up. Seed Ya Later, Wait Geordie, and Undercover Affair all carry genuine prominent profiles and will press for the early positions just behind, creating a tidy gallop that is unlikely to be truly searching on this flat track. This field actually contains more hold-up types than the race shape can accommodate at the rear — Holi Scarlett is a genuine hold-up horse redistributed into the mapped midfield because On The Queue Tee and Havana Gift also hold similar profiles, meaning the back markers will be bunched and reliant on a late gap that an uncontested pace may not open. A controlled, front-running shape on fast ground at Nottingham strongly favours prominent-style runners who can track the leader and pounce in the final furlong, rather than those forced to make up ground from a held-up position against a pace that never truly injures itself.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Lead, Prominent Pounce

70% probability

If Past Passion dictates a sustainable pace and one of the prominent trio (Seed Ya Later, Wait Geordie, Undercover Affair) travels smoothly in her wake before cutting her down inside the final furlong.

Wait GeordieUndercover AffairSeed Ya LaterPast Passion

Leader Outstays All

13% probability

If Past Passion's controlled front-running at an honest but not breakneck pace proves impossible to reel in on fast ground with hold-up horses unable to get competitive.

Past PassionSeed Ya LaterWait GeordieHavana Gift

Closer Delivers Late

10% probability

If the pace quickens enough mid-race to string out the field and create genuine late-run opportunities for the hold-up horses tracking from the rear.

Havana GiftOn The Queue TeeHoli ScarlettUndercover Affair

Midfield Melee, Muddling Finish

7% probability

If prominent horses jostle for position early, disrupting each other's rhythm and creating a compressed finish where no single runner builds a decisive advantage.

Undercover AffairOn The Queue TeeWait GeordieHavana Gift

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Past Passion (Rowan Scott) — if she breaks cleanly and immediately goes unchallenged to the front, monitor whether the prominent trio (Wait Geordie, Undercover Affair, Seed Ya Later) apply any early pressure or gift her a soft lead that could prove decisive.

WATCH

Wait Geordie's OR 80 is the highest in the field but Jack Callan takes 3lbs off; watch whether the claimer settles him into a smooth prominent position or whether the weight advantage is undermined by early positional errors in a race with multiple prominent types converging.

WATCH

Undercover Affair's visor (headgear flag) could sharpen her at the break and see her race keenly — if she over-travels in the first two furlongs trying to press Past Passion, her finishing effort in the closing stages may be compromised.

NOTE

Holi Scarlett and On The Queue Tee (both genuine hold-up types) will be tracking from the rear in a race where the pace may not be strong enough to bring them into it — watch whether there is any clear rail or far-side channel opening late for either to exploit.

NOTE

The going report confirms this 5f strip is Good to Firm despite the card listing Good — fast ground compresses finishing times and tends to reward those with early position, reinforcing the prominent-runner advantage identified in the pace map.

3:30 — Construction Day 14th October Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Liveinthelight likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Red Rifle led; the map had Liveinthelight in front.

Emma's Letter won at 11.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Liveinthelight

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

Ceinture d'OrionEmma's LetterBergamo GoldBaron Wagstaff

Hold Up · 2

Al MasloolRed Rifle

Liveinthelight is the sole confirmed pace-setter in this seven-runner 1m2f handicap on good-to-firm ground at Nottingham, and with no rival likely to press for the lead, the fractions will be controlled and sustainable rather than end-to-end. The remainder of the field — Al Maslool, Red Rifle, Ceinture d'Orion, Emma's Letter, Baron Wagstaff and Bergamo Gold — are all natural hold-up types, meaning Liveinthelight should enjoy a genuinely uncontested lead and set a rhythm entirely on its own terms. This race shape strongly favours horses capable of travelling powerfully through the race from midfield and finishing with purpose, as the steady tempo will compress the field and make a late burst the decisive factor. Several runners — Ceinture d'Orion, Emma's Letter, Baron Wagstaff and Bergamo Gold — are genuine hold-up types who cannot all race at the rear and have been mapped forward on the visual; those most likely to actually secure their natural position are the ones drawn or ridden to drop in quietly, but the redistribution means the race shape remains dominated by closers who must pick their way through.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Liveinthelight Controls, Closers Finish

62% probability

If Liveinthelight dictates a steady gallop unchallenged and the field closes evenly in the straight.

Al MasloolRed RifleCeinture d'OrionEmma's Letter

Late Finishers Pounce Decisively

18% probability

If the pace is genuinely slow early and the hold-up horses get clear runs in the straight.

Ceinture d'OrionAl MasloolEmma's LetterRed Rifle

Pace Quickens, Liveinthelight Lands

12% probability

If Liveinthelight's jockey Clifford Lee presses on turning for home and the hold-up pack is caught flat-footed.

LiveinthelightRed RifleAl MasloolBaron Wagstaff

Traffic Problems Shuffle Result

8% probability

If bunching behind a slow pace creates interference and those with wide draws or clean passage benefit unexpectedly.

Al MasloolCeinture d'OrionEmma's LetterBaron Wagstaff

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Liveinthelight sets an uncontested lead — watch whether Clifford Lee presses on turning for home, as any significant quickening mid-race will expose every hold-up runner in this field simultaneously.

WATCH

With five natural hold-up types all needing to produce their challenge in the straight, monitor early positioning — significant bunching or interference in the final two furlongs is a genuine risk that could blindside fancied runners.

WATCH

Al Maslool's hood (hg:p) is noted and Cieren Fallon's booking is the headline positive angle — watch whether the hood produces a more tractable early effort that allows him to travel smoothly through a compressed field.

NOTE

Red Rifle's recent 1m2f win on good ground is the strongest form-to-condition match in the race; watch his price in the market as a potential underlay or overlay depending on how punters assess the class rise.

NOTE

Emma's Letter's 52-day absence combined with the hood (hg:b) means an early behavioral read in the paddock and at the start is worth tracking before committing to any view on her chance.

4:05 — Watch Racing TV Now Handicap

1m½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Storm Esme likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Mayflower Billy and Thornaby Annie led; the map had Storm Esme in front.

Empirical won at 2.25 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Storm Esme

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

EmpiricalSahara MagicAlbertini StarMereside PrincessKameko Fever

Hold Up · 2

Thornaby AnnieMayflower Billy

Storm Esme is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 1m½f handicap on good-to-firm ground at Nottingham, and with no genuine pace rival to press her, David Allan can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the outset. The remainder of the field is overwhelmingly hold-up in style — Empirical, Sahara Magic, Albertini Star, Mereside Princess and Kameko Fever are all true hold-up horses redistributed into midfield on the map because there are simply too many rear-of-field types to accommodate; of those, Mereside Princess and Kameko Fever are most likely to secure a forward position given their recent prominent-tracking form hints. With one honest pace-setter over a flat mile and a furlong, this race shape is set to favour hold-up horses with a genuine, sustained late run — provided they can access a clear passage from what will likely be a tight, bunched mid-race pack — though the redistribution caveat means many of those closers are not natural sit-and-sprint types and may not fully capitalise.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Storm Esme Controls Wire

58% probability

If Storm Esme is allowed to bowl along unchallenged and sets a true but not extravagant gallop that the hold-up pack cannot reel in.

Storm EsmeMereside PrincessKameko FeverThornaby Annie

Late Closers Swamp Leader

22% probability

If the pace proves just quick enough to string out the field and two or three hold-up horses find clear runs to deliver sustained late challenges.

Mereside PrincessThornaby AnnieEmpiricalKameko Fever

Prominent Challengers Dictate

12% probability

If Storm Esme is tracked closely by Mereside Princess or Kameko Fever and the pace lifts in the final quarter-mile, exposing the front-runner.

Mereside PrincessKameko FeverEmpiricalThornaby Annie

Pace Collapse; Stragglers Land

8% probability

If Storm Esme sets a falsely slow early gallop and the race degenerates into a sprint finish from the two-furlong pole.

EmpiricalThornaby AnnieSahara MagicMereside Princess

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Storm Esme must be tracked from flag-fall — if David Allan is allowed to stride clear unchallenged by the two-furlong pole, hold-up horses face a tough ask on this flat track with limited time to close.

WATCH

Mereside Princess is the standout form horse but carries blinkers and is a natural hold-up type mapped forward; watch whether William Pyle attempts to track Storm Esme or drops her out, as her positional choice will heavily influence her winning chance.

WATCH

Albertini Star's 218-day absence combined with a tendency to fade in the finish makes her a significant in-running drift risk — if she shows early, expect her to weaken inside the final two furlongs.

NOTE

The bunching of six genuine hold-up horses in the mid-to-rear section means a traffic problem in the straight is likely; horses drawn widest (Kameko Fever, Empirical) may have the clearest run but face the longest route around.

NOTE

Good-to-firm conditions confirmed for the 4:05 — any horse whose best form has come on softer ground (Mayflower Billy, Storm Esme's soft-ground win) should be slightly downgraded relative to those with proven good-ground credentials like Thornaby Annie and Mereside Princess.

4:40 — Wildwest Beer Festival 4th July Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Mohmentous likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Beauty Generation won at 8.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Mohmentous

Prominent · 1

Talking In Kode

Midfield · 4

Spec Of LightPhantom ShadowBeauty GenerationWadacre Geisha

Hold Up · 3

Pay AttentionRugby UnionCrimson Road

Mohmentous is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no rival willing or able to seriously challenge for the lead, Daniel Tudhope can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop over this 1m2f Nottingham flat on Good to Firm ground. Talking In Kode is the only other prominent-style runner and will track Mohmentous, but there is no pressure likely to force a genuinely hot pace — this sets up as a classic single-pace-setter scenario. The remaining seven runners are all natural hold-up types, yet the field is so loaded with closers that Spec Of Light, Phantom Shadow, Beauty Generation and Wadacre Geisha have been redistributed to midfield on the map, as their true rear-running positions are oversubscribed — in reality several of these will not find the deep cover they prefer. A single uncontested pace-setter on a flat track in Good to Firm conditions typically compresses the race into one sustained rhythm with no significant acceleration change, which firmly favours a horse who can sit close to the gallop and outstay rivals rather than one needing a sprint finish from far back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Mohmentous Dictates Unchallenged

62% probability

If Mohmentous leads without pressure and Tudhope controls the tempo throughout, the race becomes a stamina test from the front.

MohmentousTalking In KodePay AttentionWadacre Geisha

Hold-Up Horses Hit Form

18% probability

If Mohmentous sets an honest enough gallop that closers can reel him in over the final two furlongs.

Wadacre GeishaPhantom ShadowPay AttentionCrimson Road

Prominent Pair Pull Clear

12% probability

If Mohmentous and Talking In Kode break cleanly and the rest of the field is left flat-footed in a steady-run race that never truly tests staying power.

MohmentousTalking In KodeBeauty GenerationRugby Union

Stamina Test Unlocks Value

8% probability

If the pace quickens mid-race or the genuine 10f distance trips up the shorter-trip specialists, rewarding proven stayers.

Crimson RoadBeauty GenerationPay AttentionRugby Union

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Mohmentous at the start — if Tudhope secures the lead cleanly and unchallenged, the controlled tempo this creates means the race is likely over before the straight.

WATCH

Watch Wadacre Geisha's position in the early stages; if Connor Beasley can slot in just off the pace rather than being buried at the rear, the consistent 10f Good form gives it a genuine winning chance in most scenarios.

WATCH

Talking In Kode with the hood on bears watching for any signs of keenness behind the leader — if it gets loose and burns energy early, it becomes far less effective over the final two furlongs.

NOTE

Spec Of Light's sim-going record of just 2/15 on turf Good-to-Firm is a red flag worth monitoring in running — if it appears laboured before the final bend, the surface may simply be too quick for it regardless of race shape.

NOTE

Rugby Union's finishing-fade flag makes it worth watching whether it is still travelling at the two-furlong pole; any sign of weakening before that point confirms the trip and going combination is beyond it today.

5:15 — Events At Nottingham Racecourse Training Series Apprentice Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Sam's Hope likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Beaumadier led; the map had Sam's Hope in front.

Winchurch won at 3.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Sam's Hope

Prominent · 1

Beaumadier

Midfield · 3

Miss BrazenSpirit Of ApplauseHurt You Never

Hold Up · 2

WinchurchMuker

Sam's Hope is the sole confirmed front runner and, with only Beaumadier likely to press from a prominent position, should be able to control the tempo on Good to Firm ground over this flat 5f at Nottingham without facing any serious early challenge. That creates a genuinely sustainable pace — not a crawl, but measured enough that Sam's Hope can dictate rhythm and avoid burning out the leader's stamina advantage. The race shape overwhelmingly favours a horse that can sit just off the front and pick up in the final furlong, as the prominent-to-mid profile is where the tactical edge lies under this scenario. This field holds more hold-up horses than the race shape can accommodate — Miss Brazen, Spirit Of Applause, and Hurt You Never are genuine closers who are likely to find themselves racing closer to the pace than is natural for them, diluting the benefit of any late finish.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sam's Hope Controls Cleanly

66% probability

If Sam's Hope leads uncontested and Beaumadier sits a length or two adrift without mounting any real early pressure.

Sam's HopeBeaumadierWinchurchMiss Brazen

Prominent Horse Pounces Late

17% probability

If Sam's Hope sets a slightly stronger pace than ideal and Winchurch, racing handier than its typical hold-up style, lands a decisive blow in the final furlong.

WinchurchBeaumadierSam's HopeMiss Brazen

Closers Land Late

10% probability

If Sam's Hope overcooks the early pace and the true hold-up horses find more room to close than the race shape typically allows.

Miss BrazenHurt You NeverSpirit Of ApplauseMuker

Tactical Chaos Scrambles Result

7% probability

If multiple horses break fast, crowding the early pace picture and turning the race into a sprint where no one settles cleanly.

MukerBeaumadierWinchurchSpirit Of Applause

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sam's Hope's going suitability is a live risk — only 1 of 15 career runs on Good going and today is confirmed Good to Firm, so monitor closely whether the horse handles the faster surface before assigning it full weight in any scenario.

WATCH

Beaumadier's trainer Loughnane has a 0/18 strike rate over the past 14 days; while the horse fits the race shape perfectly, the trainer's current cold run is worth factoring against it at shorter odds.

WATCH

Miss Brazen, Spirit Of Applause, and Hurt You Never are all genuine hold-up types who cannot all settle at the back of a seven-runner field — watch how they break and whether any of them ends up chasing the pace uncomfortably, which would compromise their late-run entirely.

NOTE

Winchurch is the only runner with a confirmed win at this exact 5f Nottingham trip on Good going and has won twice recently — if the pace scenario produces any weakness in the front two, it is the horse most likely to arrive with a decisive challenge.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 2 July 2026.

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