Archive›Nottingham · 20 June 2026

Nottingham

20 June 2026 · 6 races

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5:55 — Dine In Sherwoods Restaurant Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m2f · Good · NOV · 3 runners

Cyrano De Bergerac likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Cyrano De Bergerac led, as the map showed.

Cyrano De Bergerac won at 1.25 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Cyrano De Bergerac

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 1

Seacole

Hold Up · 1

Flag Of Eva

Cyrano De Bergerac is the sole confirmed pace-setter in this three-runner novice and will stride to the front unchallenged, dictating a controlled, sustainable tempo on Good ground over 1m2f at Nottingham. Flag Of Eva is a hold-up type who will sit last, while Seacole's style is unknown but her headgear and lightly-raced profile suggest she will slot in wherever connections dictate, likely tracking Cyrano in second. With no pressure on the leader and a small field, Cyrano sets an honest but uncontested gallop that will make this a test of stamina and finish rather than raw pace. This race shape strongly favours a horse with tactical versatility or a powerful staying finish — a genuine hold-up closer who can produce a sustained late run, or the front-runner if its class is high enough to exploit the soft tempo and kick clear before rivals can respond.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Controls

72% probability

If Cyrano De Bergerac settles comfortably in front and uses the uncontested lead to conserve energy before quickening in the straight.

Cyrano De BergeracSeacoleFlag Of Eva

Closer Swoops Late

14% probability

If the pace set by Cyrano De Bergerac is genuinely slow, allowing Flag Of Eva to close from last with a powerful sustained run in the final two furlongs.

Flag Of EvaSeacoleCyrano De Bergerac

Unknown Seacole Lands

10% probability

If Seacole, the lightly-raced Ralph Beckett runner, has been produced significantly improved and tracks Cyrano before overwhelming the field with a superior turn of foot.

SeacoleCyrano De BergeracFlag Of Eva

Flat Finish, Photo Finish

4% probability

If the slow uncontested pace compresses the field so all three finish within a length of each other and fine margins decide.

SeacoleFlag Of EvaCyrano De Bergerac

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Cyrano De Bergerac's early tempo — if Luke Catton (3) allows a crawl, the race becomes a sprint and his stamina advantage over 1m2f evaporates, opening the door for Flag Of Eva's late run.

WATCH

Seacole's unknown going preference is a genuine concern on Good turf; if she has only been seen on an artificial surface or is highly inexperienced, Pat Dobbs may struggle to find her best position in a slowly-run three-runner race.

WATCH

Flag Of Eva's form of 6-6 is uninspiring and both runs came over trips shorter than or at the same distance — monitor whether Appleby pitches her forward more aggressively than her hold-up tag suggests if the early pace is visibly slow.

NOTE

With only three runners, any tactical error — such as Cyrano over-racing or Seacole missing the break — becomes magnified and could dramatically alter the finish order; small-field dynamics at Nottingham over 1m2f can produce messy, slowly-run affairs that reward the freshest or best-handicapped horse late.

6:35 — Racedays For £9 At Nottingham Racecourse Training Series Apprentice Handicap (RE Series)

1m½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Ramli likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ramli led, as the map showed.

Leadenhall won at 2.10 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ramli

Prominent · 1

Equion

Midfield · 1

Leadenhall

Hold Up · 2

ZowalLord Normandy

Ramli is the sole confirmed front-runner in a five-horse field and should lead from the gates over this 1m½f trip at Nottingham on good ground, setting a controlled, uncontested tempo that is unlikely to be pressured at any stage. With both Zowal and Lord Normandy carrying genuine hold-up profiles, the race will likely settle into a strung-out pattern early, with Ramli dictating fractions from the front and the hold-up horses forced to cover ground from off the pace in the straight. Leadenhall is a true hold-up type redistributed to midfield on the map because the field contains more come-from-behind horses than can all race at the rear simultaneously, but its natural style means it will likely race further back than shown. This race shape strongly favours horses who can sit prominently behind Ramli or track the leader into the straight, as the moderate single-file tempo will reward those in a position to strike without needing to make up significant ground late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Ramli Controls, Holds On

71% probability

If Ramli leads uncontested and the hold-up horses fail to close the gap in time.

RamliEquionZowalLord Normandy

Closer Gets Up Late

15% probability

If Ramli sets an overly strong early pace and ties up in the final furlong.

Lord NormandyZowalRamliLeadenhall

Midfield Horse Quickens Through

9% probability

If Leadenhall, despite redistribution, gets a better pitch than expected and delivers a prominent challenge.

LeadenhallEquionRamliZowal

Muddled Tactical Race

5% probability

If no horse settles cleanly into role and pace breaks down into a falsely run contest.

EquionZowalLord NormandyRamli

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lord Normandy has the most relevant distance profile in the field (wins and places over 10f on good), and if Tom Clover has this horse fit after 232 days off, it is the most dangerous threat to Ramli at the business end.

WATCH

Ramli's entire win record is over 8f-10f — watch whether Kyle McHugh is instructed to settle it off the pace or whether it races prominently over the longer 1m½f trip, as any energy wastage early could cost it the race.

WATCH

Leadenhall runs just seven days after its last outing and Tim Easterby's yard is in active form, but this horse has never been tried over 1m½f and its redistribution from a true hold-up style means it may struggle to get into the race from a natural position in a small five-runner field.

NOTE

Zowal's 74-day absence combined with a clear step up in trip from its entire career profile (7f-8f) makes it worth monitoring in the market — any support would suggest connections are confident about both fitness and the distance test.

NOTE

With only five runners on good ground at Nottingham, the draw and early positioning will be magnified — watch the early strides to see whether any of the hold-up horses (Zowal, Lord Normandy) attempt to track closer than expected, which would signal a change in tactical intent.

7:10 — Wildwest Beer Festival 4th July Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Organ likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Organ and Nolton Cross and Green Triangle led, as the map showed.

Bella's Path won at 19.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Organ

Prominent · 2

Model YukoTowerlands

Midfield · 3

Time LoopBella's PathGreen Triangle

Hold Up · 2

Nolton CrossSpoken Truth

Organ is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, will stride out unchallenged from the off over Nottingham's flat 1m2f trip, setting a controlled and sustainable gallop on good turf. Model Yuko and Towerlands are the most likely to press Organ into a genuine prominent position, but the field contains a surplus of prominent-minded horses — Time Loop and Bella's Path are natural prominent racers who will be forced to settle further back than they would prefer, with Green Triangle similarly displaced rearward despite being a genuine hold-up type. The resulting race shape is an orderly, single-file contest run at a steady-to-honest clip, with Organ able to dictate throughout and the closers likely covering ground on horses who are out of their natural rhythm. This race shape most favours horses who can race prominently and sustain their effort through the home straight — a clean front-runner or a horse travelling just off the pace in a genuine tracking role has a structural advantage, while true hold-up horses face a flat, unvarying gallop that offers no late injection of pace to play into their hands.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Organ controls, holds on

62% probability

If Organ leads unchallenged and the pace remains controlled enough that no prominent rival has the energy to reel him in

OrganModel YukoTowerlandsSpoken Truth

Prominent pair overhaul leader

18% probability

If Organ sets a pace that proves just quick enough to weaken him in the final furlong, leaving Model Yuko or Towerlands to collar him late

Model YukoTowerlandsOrganSpoken Truth

Closers finish strongest

13% probability

If the pace is hot enough that the prominent brigade fade and the genuine hold-up horses — Spoken Truth and Nolton Cross — close powerfully from the rear

Spoken TruthNolton CrossGreen TriangleTime Loop

Displaced types cause chaos

7% probability

If the surplus prominent horses — Time Loop and Bella's Path — find positions closer to the pace than mapped, creating an unexpectedly contested early tempo

Time LoopBella's PathSpoken TruthOrgan

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Organ's pace control is the single biggest variable — if Harry Vigors (7lb claimer) misjudges the tempo and goes too slow, the field concertinas and Organ becomes a sitting target for Model Yuko and Towerlands in the straight.

WATCH

Model Yuko's 289-day absence for Roger Varian needs live market confirmation — Varian's yard is known to return horses fit, but if the market drifts significantly at the off, her prominent challenge may be theoretical rather than real.

WATCH

Time Loop and Bella's Path, both natural prominent types mapped to midfield, could cause an unsettled early race if either jockey attempts to push forward to their preferred position — watch the first two furlongs for any unexpected surge from Pat Dobbs or Kieren Fox.

NOTE

Spoken Truth is the closest thing to a value hold-up profile in this race — David O'Meara's runner has placed twice on good ground at similar trips and arrives race-fit at 15 days since last run, making it the most credible alternative if Organ weakens late.

NOTE

Green Triangle's headgear (tongue-tie and blinkers flagged) warrants noting — if the gear produces a sharper early reaction, the horse could push further forward than the map suggests, marginally tightening the field and affecting how cleanly Organ gets away.

7:45 — It's Racing Staff Week Fillies' Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Tiva likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Secret Mistral and Sugar Hill Babe led; the map had Tiva in front.

Paradise Walk won at 5.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Tiva

Prominent · 2

Desert TreasureParadise Walk

Midfield · 2

PalmeiraSecret Mistral

Hold Up · 2

Elegant ErinSugar Hill Babe

Tiva is the confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine rival disputing the lead, she will set a controlled, sustainable gallop from the off on good ground over this straight five furlongs at Nottingham. Desert Treasure and Paradise Walk will press from just off the pace in a prominent position, creating a modest early tempo that is unlikely to collapse the field but equally unlikely to produce a suicidal burn. This field contains more hold-up types than the race shape can accommodate at the rear — Palmeira and Secret Mistral are genuine closers who will almost certainly be forced into a midfield berth rather than their preferred position off a strong pace. The controlled pace set by Tiva, with two prominent types tracking closely, shapes this race as a test of cruising speed and a short, sharp finish rather than a stamina-sapping grind — favouring horses who can travel prominently and quicken off a sound but unforced gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Tiva Controls, Prominent Wins

68% probability

If Tiva dictates a smooth, uncontested lead and the pace stays honest without over-quickening, prominent trackers who travel smoothly into the straight will dominate.

Desert TreasureParadise WalkTivaSugar Hill Babe

Steady Pace, Late Surge

16% probability

If Tiva crawls the early fractions and the field bunches, creating a sprint finish where hold-up horses get an unexpected closing run.

Sugar Hill BabeSecret MistralPalmeiraElegant Erin

Pace Collapse, Tiva Outstays

10% probability

If Tiva's lead grows unchallenged to the point where she bowls along at a thoroughly leisurely clip and the field cannot coordinate a challenge.

TivaParadise WalkDesert TreasureSugar Hill Babe

Strong Pace Blowout

6% probability

If an early incident or positional battle accelerates the early fractions and the race becomes a true stamina test for a 5f sprint.

Elegant ErinSugar Hill BabeSecret MistralPalmeira

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Desert Treasure is the standout profile — two 5f Good wins and Pat Dobbs booked — watch whether she settles cleanly in a prominent position behind Tiva, as her chance depends entirely on travelling smoothly into the straight.

WATCH

Tiva sets the tempo for the entire field; if she is slow away or fails to establish the lead cleanly, the race loses its shape and hold-up horses gain significantly more opportunity than the pace map assigns them.

WATCH

Palmeira and Secret Mistral are genuine closers who will be tracking midfield rather than hunting off a strong pace — watch whether they are trapped wide or short of room in the straight, as either scenario removes what little hold-up opportunity exists.

NOTE

Paradise Walk drops from 6f to 5f for the first time in her recent form; if she travels keenly in the early stages and fails to settle, she may burn out before the finish rather than delivering her best prominent-style run.

NOTE

Sugar Hill Babe is the only hold-up horse in the field with a genuinely strong 5f Good record — if the pace is slow and the race compresses into a sprint finish, her 1/5f/GOO and 2/5f/GOO are the credentials to note.

8:15 — Construction Day 14th October Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Holbache likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ingleby Archie and Holbache led, as the map showed.

Ingleby Archie won at 3.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Holbache

Prominent · 1

Ingleby Archie

Midfield · 2

Early ReleaseCairdeas

Hold Up · 2

WinchurchRaffles Angel

Holbache is the confirmed pace-setter here, a veteran front-runner with headgear who will stride to the front and attempt to control this 6f Nottingham contest on Good turf at a sustainable, measured tempo. With only one genuine leader in a six-runner field, the pace will be honest but not punishing — Holbache will not be harassed into overdoing it early. The hold-up contingent is deep: Cairdeas, Early Release, Raffles Angel and Winchurch all want to come from off the pace, but the field contains more hold-up types than the race shape can naturally absorb, meaning Cairdeas and Early Release — tagged as redistributed — are unlikely to settle as far back as their natural style demands. This race shape strongly favours horses who can track the leader in second or third and quicken through the final two furlongs, as a lone front-runner at a controlled pace on Good ground sets up ideally for a prompt, close-range challenge rather than a late, wide-sweeping surge from the back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Holbache Controls, Tracker Wins

68% probability

If Holbache dictates a smooth, uncontested lead and the prominent trackers press at the two-furlong pole.

Ingleby ArchieWinchurchHolbacheCairdeas

Holbache Wires The Field

15% probability

If Holbache's controlled pace proves too difficult to reel in and he finds enough from the front to hold on.

HolbacheIngleby ArchieWinchurchCairdeas

Hold-Up Horses Land Late

11% probability

If the pace proves genuinely strong enough to compromise the trackers and the true hold-up horses find a clear run.

WinchurchRaffles AngelCairdeasEarly Release

Muddled Pace Scramble

6% probability

If early position is contested more than expected and the pace becomes erratic, unsettling order throughout the field.

WinchurchIngleby ArchieRaffles AngelHolbache

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Winchurch is nine days fresh carrying top weight but has a 6f Good win and Appleby's in-form yard — if it travels prominently rather than deep into the hold-up pack, it is the most dangerous horse in the field to Holbache's lead.

WATCH

Holbache's jockey Tom Kiely-Marshall (5lb claimer) sets the tactical tempo for the whole race — any misjudgement of the early fractions could either string the field out or allow a slow pace that invites a mass sprint finish.

WATCH

Cairdeas and Early Release are genuine rear-runners forced into a midfield role by the weight of hold-up types in this field; watch whether they can settle cleanly at a position that is not natural, as traffic problems or overcrowding in the straight are a real risk.

NOTE

Raffles Angel is the only runner in the field with a win on Good ground at this exact trip as its headline form; if the pace quickens sharply in the final two furlongs rather than grinding out, it becomes the most interesting late-challenge profile.

NOTE

Trainer T14 strike rates are notably strong for David Evans (4/19) and Michael Appleby (3/23), suggesting both Early Release and Winchurch arrive with their stables in a productive vein — neither should be casually dismissed despite the difficult hold-up dynamic.

8:45 — Nottingham Racecourse Supporting Racing Staff Week Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Kalokalo likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Kalokalo and Mr Bollinger led, as the map showed.

Astracornus won at 3.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kalokalo

Prominent · 1

Miss Pretty

Midfield · 1

Astracornus

Hold Up · 2

Distorted TruthMr Bollinger

Kalokalo is the lone confirmed front-runner in a field of five and, with no genuine pressure expected, should be allowed to dictate a sustainable gallop from the off over this 1m2f trip on Good turf. Miss Pretty is the only other horse with a prominent style and may attempt to track Kalokalo closely, but the pace is unlikely to be injected with any urgency given the absence of a rival to push the leader. Distorted Truth, Mr Bollinger, and Astracornus are all hold-up types by nature, meaning the field will be strung out early with the race shape heavily front-loaded and the rear contingent dependent on a meaningful tempo that may never materialise. This race shape strongly favours horses who can race prominently or track the leader in a position to strike, as a controlled pace over 1m2f on Good ground typically sets up a finish for those closest to the pace rather than those waiting from deep.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Kalokalo Controls Unchallenged

70% probability

If Kalokalo bowls along in front with Miss Pretty tracking and the hold-up horses unable to close the gap.

KalokaloMiss PrettyDistorted TruthMr Bollinger

Miss Pretty Challenges Late

14% probability

If Miss Pretty tracks Kalokalo closely throughout and produces a decisive challenge inside the final furlong.

Miss PrettyKalokaloDistorted TruthAstracornus

Hold-Up Horse Swoops

10% probability

If the pace is genuinely stronger than anticipated and Distorted Truth or Mr Bollinger find daylight for a late run.

Distorted TruthMr BollingerMiss PrettyAstracornus

Astracornus Comes Good

6% probability

If the race pans out at a true gallop and Astracornus, held up in midfield due to redistribution, finds an unimpeded run.

AstracornusDistorted TruthMr BollingerKalokalo

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Kalokalo is the lone confirmed pace-setter and any interference at the start or early bump from Miss Pretty challenging for the prominent position would significantly disrupt the expected race shape.

WATCH

Miss Pretty's jockey Georgia Dobie is a conditional/amateur type taking on a small field — watch whether she opts to sit close to Kalokalo or drops in behind, as that tactical decision will define whether this becomes a genuine two-horse race from the front.

WATCH

Mr Bollinger's headgear is flagged — confirm whether this is a first-time application, as debut headgear in a small field on Good ground can trigger unpredictable early speed and briefly alter the early pace.

NOTE

With three hold-up horses (Distorted Truth, Mr Bollinger, Astracornus) all needing to close from behind in a five-runner race at a controlled tempo, watch for a bunched finish if Kalokalo's stamina gives way late — the winner may come from further back than the pace map suggests only in that scenario.

NOTE

The going has been confirmed Good across all six races at Nottingham today with no deterioration — conditions are consistent and unlikely to produce unexpected surface quirks that would benefit any specific profile.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 20 June 2026.

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