Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
11:00 — Martin Stonemans Lucky Last Handicap
1m6f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners
Two Plus Two likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Nymphaea won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Two Plus Two
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 2
Star Of JupiterMuhib
Hold Up · 2
Regally BlondeNymphaea
Two Plus Two is the lone confirmed pace-setter in this five-runner field and, with no challenger likely to press them hard over 1m6f on good ground at Nottingham, they should dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front. The three hold-up types — Nymphaea, Star Of Jupiter, and Muhib — will be strung out behind, while Regally Blonde is a non-runner, leaving a thin field with little tactical complexity. Because Star Of Jupiter and Muhib are genuine rear-runners whose redistribution to midfield on the map reflects the lack of true midfield types rather than their natural instincts, they will likely settle further back than shown and face a longer closing run than ideal. This race shape — a lone front-runner setting an honest but uncontested tempo over a staying trip — strongly favours horses that can travel prominently or sustain a long run from mid-division, with true hold-up horses needing a strong pace to reel in Two Plus Two, which they are unlikely to get.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Two Plus Two Dictates
70% probability
If Two Plus Two controls the pace unchallenged and the tempo stays honest but never brutal over the 1m6f trip.
If Two Plus Two controls the pace unchallenged and the tempo stays honest but never brutal over the 1m6f trip.
Two Plus TwoNymphaeaStar Of JupiterMuhib
B
Nymphaea Runs Down Leader
15% probability
If Two Plus Two sets a strong enough pace that Nymphaea, tracking closer than usual, has the fuel to overhaul them near the line.
If Two Plus Two sets a strong enough pace that Nymphaea, tracking closer than usual, has the fuel to overhaul them near the line.
NymphaeaTwo Plus TwoStar Of JupiterMuhib
C
Hold-Up Horses Pounce Late
10% probability
If the pace is surprisingly strong early and Star Of Jupiter or Muhib get a true strong-run race that sets up a finishing burst.
If the pace is surprisingly strong early and Star Of Jupiter or Muhib get a true strong-run race that sets up a finishing burst.
Star Of JupiterMuhibNymphaeaTwo Plus Two
D
Muddling Messy Race
5% probability
If Two Plus Two is slow away or checks early, creating a positional scramble that upsets the race pattern entirely.
If Two Plus Two is slow away or checks early, creating a positional scramble that upsets the race pattern entirely.
NymphaeaMuhibTwo Plus TwoStar Of Jupiter
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Two Plus Two's ability to control pace unopposed is the single biggest factor — watch whether Pat Cosgrave elects to stride on boldly or tries to conserve energy, as the tempo Two Plus Two sets will determine whether hold-up horses can close.
WATCH
Star Of Jupiter and Muhib are genuine hold-up horses shown in midfield on the map due to field composition — watch their actual starting position as both are likely to settle near the rear, making their closing task longer than the race shape map implies.
WATCH
Nymphaea's last five runs include soft and standard ground rather than good, so watch the going report updates closely — any drying-out through the morning session could subtly affect their effectiveness as a closing force.
NOTE
With Regally Blonde a non-runner, this is effectively a four-horse race — watch market moves on Nymphaea as the most likely horse to track Two Plus Two and benefit from even a slight pace injection in the final quarter-mile.
11:30 — Cambion Electronics 65 Years In Manufacturing 'Hands And Heels' Apprentice Handicap
1m½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Rusheen Boy likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Perfidia and Volendam led; the map had Rusheen Boy in front.
Perfidia won at 4.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Rusheen Boy
Prominent · 2
My Boy HarryMariner
Midfield · 3
VolendamPerfidiaRiver Wharfe
Hold Up · 2
Bajan BanditMbappe
Rusheen Boy is the confirmed lone pace-setter and will take this field along from the front, likely uncontested on Good ground over 1m½f at Nottingham — a flat, fair track that allows a controlled front-runner to dictate entirely on their own terms. With no natural rival to press him through the early stages, Rusheen Boy can set a sustainable, metronomic tempo that keeps the race honest without burning himself out, making life genuinely difficult for hold-up types who need a strong injection of pace to close into. My Boy Harry and Mariner are both prominent-styled horses who should sit just off the leader, keeping the front-running shape intact rather than disrupting it. This field holds more prominent and hold-up types than the race shape can accommodate — Volendam and Perfidia are genuine prominent racers mapped to midfield because the positions ahead of them are occupied, while River Wharfe is a true hold-up type pushed further forward on the map than reality will allow; Rusheen Boy and My Boy Harry are most likely to actually secure the front positions. A controlled, single-leader race on Good turf over this stamina-testing mile-and-a-half strongly favours horses racing prominently or just off the pace who can track the tempo and quicken late — true hold-up horses face an uphill task without a strong gallop to close into.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Rusheen Boy Leads, Holds
62% probability
If Rusheen Boy dictates an uncontested, honest gallop and the prominent trackers cannot sustain their challenge in the closing stages.
If Rusheen Boy dictates an uncontested, honest gallop and the prominent trackers cannot sustain their challenge in the closing stages.
Rusheen BoyMy Boy HarryMarinerPerfidia
B
Prominent Tracker Pounces
20% probability
If Rusheen Boy's pace is sufficient to soften up the field but a prominent tracker conserves enough energy to reel him in close home.
If Rusheen Boy's pace is sufficient to soften up the field but a prominent tracker conserves enough energy to reel him in close home.
My Boy HarryMarinerPerfidiaVolendam
C
Midfield Type Storms Through
11% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to string the field out and a horse from a deeper position finds clear daylight in the straight.
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to string the field out and a horse from a deeper position finds clear daylight in the straight.
PerfidiaVolendamMy Boy HarryMbappe
D
Closer Delivers Late Swoop
7% probability
If the pace unexpectedly quickens hard in the middle stages, burning off the prominent horses and leaving a gap for a late finisher.
If the pace unexpectedly quickens hard in the middle stages, burning off the prominent horses and leaving a gap for a late finisher.
MbappeBajan BanditRiver WharfePerfidia
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Rusheen Boy is the sole pace-setter — if he gets any kind of bump or is crowded at the start by the prominent group, the entire race shape collapses and a more chaotic scenario opens up for trackers like My Boy Harry and Mariner.
WATCH
Volendam and Perfidia are both genuine prominent horses who cannot all slot in behind Rusheen Boy; watch at the break to see who actually secures a position close to the pace and who gets shuffled back, as that will materially change each horse's chance.
WATCH
Mbappe returns after 141 days off for a trainer with a 1/14 strike rate in the past fortnight — if visibly unfit or green in the parade ring, discount its chance regardless of the race shape that unfolds.
NOTE
River Wharfe has run exclusively on Standard ground in all five recent starts — monitor the going report closely at the course; the declared Good is confirmed across multiple readings but any overnight change towards Soft would benefit his profile more than the current conditions suggest.
NOTE
Bajan Bandit's 90-day absence combined with a form string of six 4th-6th finishes on Standard means any significant market move before the off should be noted — trainer P Morris is 1/8 in the past 14 days which is worth watching.
12:00 — EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
6f · Good · CLS5 · 10 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
12:30 — Neigh More Early Starts For Martin Stoneman Handicap
6f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
Space Bear likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Fenlander and Paws For Thought led; the map had Space Bear in front.
Fenlander won at 1.73 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Space Bear
Prominent · 2
Return Of The GodsCuban Lady
Midfield · 2
FenlanderMaster Of Entropy
Hold Up · 2
Emperor CaradocPaws For Thought
Space Bear is the one confirmed front-runner and, with a clear lead, is set to control tempo from the gates at a sustainable but honest gallop over Nottingham's 6f straight. Cuban Lady, Return Of The Gods, and Fenlander are all prominent-type horses who will press forward and contest the early positions, meaning the lead group will be competitive rather than purely uncontested. This field holds more prominent and front-running types than the race can accommodate cleanly — Cuban Lady and Return Of The Gods are best placed to secure prominent berths behind Space Bear, while Fenlander and Master Of Entropy are genuine pace horses who will find themselves further back than their natural style dictates. A pressured but structured gallop suits hold-up horses who can finish off a truly-run 6f, with Emperor Caradoc the profile most likely to benefit if the leaders flatten out.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled lead, brave win
68% probability
If Space Bear dictates from the front, sets a fair but not suicidal pace, and holds on under pressure in the final furlong.
If Space Bear dictates from the front, sets a fair but not suicidal pace, and holds on under pressure in the final furlong.
Space BearCuban LadyReturn Of The GodsFenlander
B
Hold-up types pounce late
14% probability
If the prominent group press hard early and set a strong pace that drains Space Bear, allowing hold-up horses to sweep through.
If the prominent group press hard early and set a strong pace that drains Space Bear, allowing hold-up horses to sweep through.
Emperor CaradocPaws For ThoughtMaster Of EntropyCuban Lady
C
Messy pace, midfield chaos
11% probability
If multiple prominent types clash for position early and cause a scrappy, uneven tempo that disrupts the race shape entirely.
If multiple prominent types clash for position early and cause a scrappy, uneven tempo that disrupts the race shape entirely.
Cuban LadyReturn Of The GodsEmperor CaradocFenlander
D
Front group weakens, Fenlander delivers
7% probability
If Fenlander manages to work forward from a shuffled position and reclaims his natural prominent role as others tire.
If Fenlander manages to work forward from a shuffled position and reclaims his natural prominent role as others tire.
FenlanderReturn Of The GodsCuban LadyEmperor Caradoc
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Space Bear is a confirmed non-runner in the data — if confirmed absent, the sole pace-setter is gone and the race shape collapses entirely, redistributing advantage away from prominent types and toward hold-up horses like Emperor Caradoc.
WATCH
Fenlander has won twice recently at 6f on Good but is mapped to midfield due to pace congestion — watch whether he can work forward early; if he cannot reclaim a prominent position, his strong recent form counts for little.
WATCH
Emperor Caradoc has strong Good-ground form at this course and distance but is 9 days fresh; watch whether he settles cleanly in the hold-up position, as a flat 6f at Nottingham leaves little room for error if he misses the early flow.
NOTE
Paws For Thought carries a fades-in-finish flag and has been out of the top three in four of his last five runs — his presence as a hold-up type in the rear group adds no real pace threat to the closers' scenario but could crowd Emperor Caradoc's run if they track similar ground.
1:00 — Martin Stonemans Final Furlong Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
Sergeant Mayer likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Beerwah won at 3.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Sergeant Mayer
Prominent · 1
Irish Dancer
Midfield · 3
Invincible CrownComedian LeaderDoralee
Hold Up · 2
Get Up EverybodyBeerwah
Sergeant Mayer is the lone confirmed front-runner in this seven-runner 5f handicap and, with no genuine pace rival to pressure him from the gates, he is able to dictate at a sustainable gallop from the front. Irish Dancer will push up prominently in pursuit, sitting just off the leader's hip and ensuring the early tempo is honest without becoming a true burning pace. The three hold-up types — Invincible Crown, Comedian Leader, and Doralee — are true closers by nature but the field has too many horses wanting the rear for all to settle there comfortably; Doralee, with the sharpest recent 5f form on Good ground, is best placed to secure a genuine hold-up berth, while Invincible Crown and Comedian Leader are likely to be squeezed into a closer mid-division position than ideal. On Good ground over a flat 5f at Nottingham with a lone, uncontested leader setting a measured pace, this race shape heavily favours horses who can race prominently and sustain their effort through the final furlong rather than those needing a truly compressed, late-injection finish.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sergeant Mayer Leads Unchallenged
66% probability
If Sergeant Mayer bowls along in front unchallenged and the pace is controlled, allowing him to conserve energy for a sustained finish.
If Sergeant Mayer bowls along in front unchallenged and the pace is controlled, allowing him to conserve energy for a sustained finish.
Sergeant MayerIrish DancerBeerwahGet Up Everybody
B
Prominent Pair Battle It Out
16% probability
If Irish Dancer pushes up aggressively early and applies real pressure to Sergeant Mayer, raising the tempo and turning the race into a true test of stamina.
If Irish Dancer pushes up aggressively early and applies real pressure to Sergeant Mayer, raising the tempo and turning the race into a true test of stamina.
Irish DancerBeerwahGet Up EverybodyDoralee
C
Late Closers Pounce
11% probability
If the early pace is genuinely strong and the front two burn each other out, leaving ground to be made in the final 100 yards for hold-up horses.
If the early pace is genuinely strong and the front two burn each other out, leaving ground to be made in the final 100 yards for hold-up horses.
DoraleeGet Up EverybodyBeerwahInvincible Crown
D
Midfield Horse Outpaces All
7% probability
If the pace collapses entirely in the closing stages and a horse tracking in the middle of the field finds a clear passage to accelerate through beaten rivals.
If the pace collapses entirely in the closing stages and a horse tracking in the middle of the field finds a clear passage to accelerate through beaten rivals.
Get Up EverybodyBeerwahDoraleeIrish Dancer
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Sergeant Mayer's draw and early break — if he gains a clean passage to the rail uncontested, the race could effectively be won before the quarter-pole as no horse in this field has the pace to chase him down from the gates.
WATCH
Comedian Leader's 97-day absence and recent runs exclusively on AW over longer trips make him a significant unknown on Good turf; if he shapes poorly early it confirms the going and trip are against him and he can be sidelined from calculations.
WATCH
Doralee, Invincible Crown, and Comedian Leader cannot all find their natural hold-up position — watch in the first furlong whether one or two of them are forced to race closer to the pace than intended, which would compromise any of their late runs.
NOTE
Irish Dancer is fitted with a tongue-tie and has been off only 9 days — watch how quickly Zak Wheatley commits him to press Sergeant Mayer, as an aggressive move to claim second slot early locks in his tactical advantage for the entire race.
NOTE
Beerwah's hood is absent today having worn one last time when finishing second — watch whether he settles cleanly in the early stages, as headgear removal can affect a horse's concentration and alter its natural racing pattern.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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